997: Mailbag - The Broncos Backfield, Brock Bowers Fear, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacheras j J zacher reefon what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode nine ninety seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. Football season's right around the corner, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings giving all customers it can't miss offer Draft one, Get one, enter a lineup in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. 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Eligibility restrictions apply. Void were prohibited. One per customer entered the best Ball of fifteen million dollars Headliner contest by nine to four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars entropre required. Reward expires in thirty days. See terms at DraftKings dot com. Slash NFL Dash Best Ball sponsored by dk It's a mail bag Day. Let's get to these questions. The first question is an email from Curtis. It's something that I'm sure many of you are curious about, but Curtis says, Hey, JJ love the show. Thanks With JK. Dobbins now in Denver. Does RJ. Harvey take a big hit? It seems like many believe this will just make Harvey more affordable and an easier draft selection. But will Dobbins play a bigger role than many are expecting? Could Dobbins be the player that we actually want to target? Thanks and keep up the good work, Curtis. Okay, so I've talked about the Broncos backfield a bit this offseason and how Sean Payton has just been unbelievable for running backs in fantasy football through the years, especially through the air. Since twenty eleven, Peyton's teams haven't ranked lower than sixth and running back target share in a single season. A big reason I was bullish on RJ. Harvey at least in twenty twenty five was that his competition for some of that receiving work was Julil McLoughlin, who hasn't been like a staple for them as a pass catcher. During his two years there, and then Rodrick estimay estimate with someone of that my prospect model didn't really love because he's not a pass catcher at all. Now JK. Dobbins gets thrown into the mix, and to me, Dobbins is tougher competition than es Tom McLoughlin. I mean, just last year on a per game basis, his target share was a little over ten percent, and that was in an offense that generally doesn't prefer to throw to running backs. Now, with any sort of running back rotation, you have to think about the roles that these dudes are gonna play. RJ. Harvey a rookie, he may not be the best player to have on the field in obvious passing down situations. He has questionable pass protection. And this was actually addressed by Sean Payton earlier in May. Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post. He tweeted Peyton on the RJ. Harvey slash pass pro conversation quote, I know the question is is he a three down back? And then Peyton continued and he said, well, he's gonna play on third down, but he can play on third down where the tight end is in protection there's a lot we can do to suit his strengths. Basically, I don't think the Broncos are all of a sudden not going to try to get Harvey the ball in the receiving game and get him in space. Harvey's still the most explosive back on that team by far Bo Nicks. He's not afraid to check it down. And Sean Payton's offenses, they'll utilize their running backs as receivers as pass catchers. Harvey missing more third down plays, that's not even a lock. But if he does, it doesn't just completely torpedo his projection. We still want the early down deployment for these guys. He can still catch passes on not third down. But like no sane projection system had RJ. Harvey forecast as a bell cow in twenty twenty five before this JK. Dobbins thing happened. That's not how Sean Payton operates. My thinking is that this Dobbins move really makes Odric estimay a relevant, which is weird because Sean Payton in late May said this about estimate quote. I don't want to say the grade was incomplete, but they just didn't have enough. He's a back that requires enough touches, He's going to get those opportunities. It's the most Sean Payton thing of all time. But I'm not sure how else this would go down. You don't sign Dobbins to not dress him on game days, which means Sundays will come down to Jalil McLoughlin or Odric Estimate and McLoughlin some of the team has trusted and something that they've loved since he entered the league, and he's already getting some love out of Denver this year. My guess is that this is a three headed monster without injury, where you've got RJ. Harvey leading the way and seeing the most receiving work because he's so explosive. Dobbins maybe sees forty or so fewer rush attempts than Harvey on the projections front, and then fewer targets as well. And then Jeelil McLoughlin is kind of a true change of pays back. He's just kind of sprinkled in. But there's more than enough to go around. This is an offense that should use their running backs quite a bit, so that leaves me with about one hundred and eighty five rush attempts for Harvey and around sixty five to seventy targets. He should be ranked as a low end RB two in my opinion because they're still upside there, and I think Dobbins can be considered in like that low end RB three high end RB four range. Both guys have contingent upside with injury, so overall, I hope this lowers RJ. Harvey's ADP because while he did take a slight hitting projection and his sealing outcome may not look as good, there's a good chance to drop an ADP is more significant than it should be, but we'll see this. Last questions from at Luke Angelica one on Twitter. It says, how do you feel about Tony Pollard given his approximate eleven percent target share and point eighty eight yards per route run last year? Less bullish of him as a middle round running back? How about versus Tajy Spears, who's at about a nine point five percent share with a one point four to five yards per route run. Thanks? So, I'm assuming this question stems from the episode earlier in the week on using yards per route run to help us solve the middle round running back dilemma that we face each year. If you haven't listened to that episode yet, I hit pause on this one and go back, because it's a fun one, especially if you're a nerd like me. When I was researching all that stuff for the draft guide, Pollard was one of the players that popped into my head. He had about a twelve percent target chair per game rate last year, but he wasn't very effective per route run, as you noted, I actually have him at point seven to nine yards per route run that comes from PFF. Spears was at one point three to four significantly higher, and I actually do think the Titans wanted to use Taja Spears more than they actually used him last year. He couldn't stay healthy, and we saw him do a little bit for fantasy purposes down the stretch. Without Pollard, I don't think he's like some stud running back who is an obvious league winner, but I do think he's capable of being a good change of pace player who could steal a lot of receiving work. I mean Taj Spears. In his two seasons in the league, he's got into a nine point eight percent target chaer per game rate, and then his rookie year, he was at fourteen point eight percent. There's nothing wrong with that at all. Historically, the players that are in Tony Pollard's yards per route run tier, and that's previous season yards per route run, they're not as scary as the guys who are in that Remandre Stevenson, Jordan Mason, and Chuba Hubbard grouping, but they still don't hit double digit percentage target Shaars at a really strong rate at all. So keep that in mind. I would anticipate Pollard taking a slight step back in terms of his overall usage this year. I mean, he had two hundred and sixty attempts last season. That's not going to be super super easy for him to repeat. And then I do think Spears gets a lot closer to Pollard's receiving work this season. So I'm slightly slightly lower than the market as a result of all of this. The next question is from at mister joel Meyer. It says I've been clicking on Pat Fryarmouth a lot in early best ball. He's going around tight end twenty, but he's finished closer to tight end ten and twenty twenty two and twenty twenty four when he played full seasons, He's got good odds to be the number two target earner on his team, and this might be the best quarterback he's ever had. What am I missing? So I have a decent amount of Friarmuth as well, especially when I just need some stability at the position in the later rounds. And of course this is a DraftKings best ball take, but Friarmuth on a PPR points per game basis, he's ranked as a tight end sixteen, eleven, twenty seven, and thirteen throughout his career. Arthur Smith is a tight end heavy coordinator. The Steelers don't have a ton of reliable weapons in the passing game, and like you said, Aaron Rodgers has at least a chance to be one of the better quarterbacks that Friarmuth has played with. For me, he projects out to tight end fifteen, but like you said, he's going after that. I have met tight end seventeen in my rankings, but he's back to back with two other tight ends in that exact same tier, so I'm fine with drafting him around tight end fifteen. I feel like Friarmuth and Hunter Henry, they're both kind of obvious grounds, right now in Best Ball if you just want a high floor option in those drafts, and it's not like these dudes lack a ceiling. They're capable of a spiked week here and there, so you're not missing anything here. I fully agree. This last question is an email. It says, hey, JJ, I want to love brock Bauers, but I'm concerned that we think he is Travis Kelcey, Antonio Gates, and Rob Gronkowski all rolled into one. Should we be more cautious given it is only his second year and Pete Carroll has only produced two top ten tight ends over fourteen years as a head coach. They were Jimmy Graham in twenty sixteen and twenty seventeen. Keep up the good work and can't wait for the Draft guide next month. Thanks. So when it comes to these coaching related trends like this, we always have to look at personnel. So let's look at Pete Carroll's time as head coach with the Seahawks. He got there in twenty ten, but my data goes back to twenty eleven, so we're pretty close to his whole career in Seattle. During that time, which is thirteen years, there were three instances where one of his tight ends ranked in the top twelve at the position in PPR points per game. All three of those instances were Jimmy Graham. Graham played three years in Seattle, so every year he was there, Maybe he wasn't elite, but he was at least very usable, and that was when he was arguably past his prime. Now, look at every other tight end that Seattle had during the time that Pete Carroll was there. Who's the second best tight end that they had, Gerald Everett, Zach Miller, Luke Wilson, Will Disley. Let's not pretend it was Travis Kelcey who wasn't performing on the Seahawks. The difference between this and the Sean Payton running back trend, Let's say, is that the Sean Payton won is favorable and it spans many different players in many different backfields. Had Carol given us a good tight end score with mediocre tight ends, I'd be interested the same way that I am with Sean Payton's running backs. But this is our information. Pete Carroll has had pretty average tight ends and he's posted non elite numbers. As a head coach, his tight ends have But when he had a good tight end. His tight end posted pretty good numbers. Brock Bowers is elite. I mean the dudes coming off a rookie season where he caught one hundred and twelve passes with absolutely horrific quarterback play. There is absolutely zero reason to compare brock Bowers to Luke Wilson and Zach Miller. Pete Carroll also has Chip Kelly running this offense. Kelly likes to push the pace. It's going to be more of an uptempo offense. And Geno Smith he's an underrated quarterback who may be able to mesh with brock Bowers the way that he and JSN worked in that area of the field last year. And there's really not a ton of competition. So I think Bowers is a smash And I'm not always in on these early round tight ends, this type of forecast, this type of projection, used to always be more of a first round pick, but you're getting him in the middle of round two. To me, he's a pretty great pick and we shouldn't be overly concerned. The last question this week is from Patreon is from Michael. It says, Hey, JJ, I'm really curious to see how your Chiefs projections turn out, it had to be some of the most difficult. Does the total pie grow, how do the targets and touches get broken out? A lot of questions with that offense with huge fantasy implications. Honestly, the Chiefs themselves are pretty straightforward at the highest of levels, as in, they've been top two in neutral script pass rate in each of the last three and in five of their last six seasons. They've had a relatively narrow number of pass attempts during that time, like their passing volume is relatively projectable. Now. Last season they had a yards per play rate of five point one. That was their worst rate since twenty twelve, and that was the year before Andy Reid got there, meaning they had probably their worst offensive season under Andy Reid in twenty twenty four. I think that alone can signal to us that things are likely going to get better, But I'm not ready to say that they're going to go back to like the twenty twenty two version of this offense. We know defenses have played them differently, and we've seen that in Patrick Mahomes numbers. In twenty eighteen, his first full year as starter, he had an average depth of target of nine point five, which is insane. Then it was eight point seven, then eight point nine, then it was seven point six, and then seven point seven. But over the last two years that a dot has dropped below seven yards. Over the last three seasons, Mahomes has had eight total touchdowns on fifteen plus airyard throws from twenty eighteen to twenty twenty, so another three year span, that number was thirty nine. Now, to be fair, mahomes fifteen plus airyard rate last year it was a career low at twelve point nine percent. The year prior it was a little over sixteen percent. I do think we're seeing numbers from last year that suggest it wasn't totally the norm, starting at the team level and then filtering into Mahomes. But this Chiefs team is not the Chiefs team of old. They're not chucking it down the field like they used to, and that can obviously have a fantasy impact in multiple ways. First, it means that splash plays are less likely to happen, obviously, But second it means that those lower aid dot looks might benefit a specific kind of receiver in that offense, like Rashid Rice, who's coming back from his injury, it may benefit him more than Xavier Worthy. And something that I've said on the show before but it needs to be repeated, it's that Xavier Worthy sort of upswing and production during the second half of last year and into the playoffs. It wasn't that he just all of a sudden started connecting on deep passes. His average up to target dropped by over four yards from the first ten weeks of the year to every game post week ten, twenty five percent of his targets were on twenty plus air yard throws through week ten. That rate dropped to thirteen point two percent after week ten, and that's where he saw his yards per oute run get better and his overall production get better when he wasn't being deployed as much down the field. So my biggest question is what happens when Rashie Rice is back. The Chiefs need someone to stretch the field vertically. Worthy seems like the obvious choice there, But if the team continues down their lower aid dot ways, then we're gonna see Rashi Rice hopefully pick up where he left off last year while Xavier Worthy is the more inconsistent player, and then all the while the other big player in this offense is Travis Kelcey, who was legitimately not himself last year, which is likely due to age. Kelsey had about a fourteen percent target share before Rashee Rice went down last year, and then he finished the year with a roughly twenty five percent share because he was sort of the default option for Patrick Mahomes. The problem is that he just wasn't his normal self. He had his lowest yards per target, yards per reception, touchdown, total yards after catch per reception, and yards per route run of his entire career last season. So what's this all mean then? To me, it means that we can see where she Rice eat. I find Kelsey's average draft position over on DraftKings to be really rough. While Worthy probably doesn't have like a top fifteen ceiling, but he's at least capable of high end weeks. But I think his a dot is going to rise compared to how he finished last season, and then with Patrick Mahomes, I don't really see why we need to pay a premium. It's not to say that he should rank like QB fifteen. I think it's fine if you want to draft him after Joe Burrow at QB six, but there should be a pretty big gap from the elite for this season down to Mahomes. His rushing profile is pretty average for a good fantasy quarterback, and he's now ranked eleventh and twelfth in scoring over the last two seasons. That's points per game. Is he a candidate to be one of those high touchdown rate outlier guys. Yeah, definitely it's Patrick Mahomes. We know what he's capable of, and the weapons aren't terrible there, but I don't want that to be the reason that I reach for him, since he's likely not going to average more than three points per game with his legs and then in the run game. I'm probably more bullish in the market on Isaiah Pacheco because I think that injury just really derailed him last year. But those are my general thoughts. They'll be better than they were last year in my opinion, but I don't think it's necessary to assume they're going to go back to like their twenty twenty two levels. There's just not enough evidence of that in my opinion, And as a result, there could be a big winner in that offense, and that winner would be Rashi Rice as long as he's not suspended. Of course, that's it for today's show, though, Thanks tol Ofy for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and different to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, Just to heads up, over the next few weeks, there won't be any Tuesday episodes of the show. I need to really focus on getting this draft guide completed. You'll still get be coming a Bestball, bro. You'll still get Perspectives or the mailbag episode every Friday, and then the Late Round Fantasy Football Show that's still happening every Thursday at one pm Eastern over on the YouTube channel that's YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF. This is just a temporary thing to make sure I've got the capacity to give you guys the best draft guide possible. It's kind of a dead time for fantasy football anyway, so I'll still be in your podcast feeds, but those episodes they won't start back up until early July, so a few weeks from now. Thanks for understanding, Thanks for listening, and I hope all you dads out there have a great Father's Day weekend,