1074: 15 Transactions for Week 17

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode ten seventy four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Well, we made it. We made it to week seventeen. It's championship week. It's been a really fun year and honestly, it's been a good year, which I'm really thankful for.

00:00:29
Speaker 2: We just got to cross the finish line. Now.

00:00:32
Speaker 1: Just remember this may be the last episode of twenty twenty five, but I'm not going anywhere. I do content all off season, and really that's the content that forms so much of my process during the season. So if you're only an in season listener, I get it, but don't go away, don't unsubscribe. There's tons of new stuff to dive into during the off season, and we've got big plans for Late Round Fantasy Football as a business too. Make sure you're staying on top of everything by subscribing to that newsletter. Just go to Lateround dot com, click newsletter and submit your email address to sign up. But this is it, so without further ado, let's get to the last transactions list of this twenty twenty five season. Add Emmanuel Wilson. So after not practicing last week because of this knee injury Josh Jacobs, he did give it a go on Saturday Night, but he hit just a thirty nine percent snapshare. Emmanuel Wilson played the most snaps for Green Bay in Week sixteen. He carried the ball fourteen times for eighty two yards.

00:01:29
Speaker 2: I thought he looked really good too.

00:01:32
Speaker 1: If Jacobs were to miss this week, which does seem possible, I would expect Wilson to touch the ball a lot against Baltimore. Keep in mind we saw Jacob's sideline earlier this year against the Vikings, Wilson saw twenty eight carries and two targets. Not only that, but Jordan loves in concussion protocol. If he can't go, I would expect more of a ground game approach for that Green Bay offense. So basically, Wilson's a legit starter in fantasy this week if Josh Jacobs is out. That's why his thirty seven percent roster rate needs to be a whole lot higher. Add Dylan Samson and Raheem Sanders. Quinhawn Judkins had a brutal season ending injury in Week sixteen that led to a backfield split between Rocket Sanders and Trayvon Williams. Both Sanders and Williams played twenty snaps. Williams was more of the pass catcher. He ran over twice as many routes and he saw four targets to Sanders one. But Sanders, he saw the early down work, he got the ground game stuff. He carried the ball eleven times to Williams three. And that's why I would prefer Rocket Sanders to Travon Williams. Not only that, but Sanders was a Zapmodel favorite during draft season. He was someone to me that the NFL just seemed to undervalue. The thing is Dylan Samson. He was out on Sunday with a hand injury. Now we don't know if he's gonna be able to go this weekend, but if he does, he'd make for a pretty nice play back. In Week one when Judkins wasn't playing Samson, and this is with Jerome Ford on the roster and healthy, but Samson saw a fifty seven percent running back rush here and in Night eineteen percent target share against the Bengals. Now, this Week seventeen match up against the Steelers isn't amazing, but there could be some usability from this Browns backfield.

00:03:10
Speaker 2: Hold Michael Carter.

00:03:12
Speaker 1: So look, Michael Carter's Week sixteen definitely could have been better. His peripherals weren't quite as good as what I thought they'd look like. That's because the Cardinals mixed in rookie Corey Kiner, resulting in Carter snagging just a fifty percent running back rush are in that game against Atlanta. But I wouldn't be dropping Michael Carter. He ran seventeen routes according to PFF data, compared to a combined thirteen from the other two Arizona backs, and the Cardinals get the best matchup on paper this week by justin points allowed in Cincinnati. That game has a fifty two and a half point total. Now, the one piece of downside with Carter is that the Cardinals are a seven point underdog in that matchup against the Bengals ac cording to PFF. In Week sixteen, Amar de Marcado played Arizona's two minute snaps. So if this game script does get out of hand, you run the risk that Carter's gonna lose some snaps. I just wouldn't want to drop a starting running back facing the Bengals onto the waiver wire after one mediocre outing AD Trey Tucker. Now what I feel really really comfortable starting Trey Tucker in my leagu's championship. Probably not, but I do think he's a potential sleeper. He's continued to operate his Vegas number one wide receiver. He's said at least a ninety percent route share every single game this year.

00:04:26
Speaker 2: There is some stability with his role.

00:04:28
Speaker 1: No, he's typically seen a nineteen percent target chair or so, but that could come in handy because they get the Giants this week. New York ranks is the eleventh best matchup for wide receivers by justin points allowed. So if you need someone deep on the waiver wire to throw into a wide receiver spot, maybe Trey Tucker is that guy. I mean, he's shown ceiling games in the past. Back in Week three, he had a thirty seven point outing against Washington.

00:04:53
Speaker 2: AD Geno Smith.

00:04:55
Speaker 1: Now, speaking of that Giants matchup, you can look at Geno Smith as a streamer too, in deeper F formats, like really deep formats. But as we get closer to the end of the season, streaming the quarterback position just becomes more difficult as a fantasy advice giver because percent roster numbers are just a lot higher. Smith, though, is widely available, and he does get that Giants team that ranks as the top ten opponent for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. And look, Gino's coming off for reasonable performances past week against the Texans, So I do think he does work as a streamer. Drop a Mecca Buca. This one's really painful. I'm not gonna lie. Amecca Buca has had a successful rookie season overall, all things considered, but with Tampa Bay's wide receiver pieces back, he's just not been reliable whatsoever. And honestly, leading up to these last couple of games, he wasn't that reliable anyway, But now the usage is actually matching that production. He had a season low sixty three percent route chair in week fifteen. He followed that up with a fifty percent route chair in week sixteen. To put that another way, the last two games with Mike Evans and Jayalen McMillan. Over these last two games, a Mecca Abuka has had his lowest route shares of the season. Now there's always a chance that he breaks a big play or he has a good game. He's a talented wide receiver, but are you really trusting him at this point? I mean you really shouldn't have trusted him last week. He scored fewer than ten and a half Peepier points in nine of his last ten games. That's the kind of production that you can usually toss on the waiver wire. You can let your opponent use that in the championship if it burns you. I still think it was the right process. But don't get me wrong. I still think Abuka has a bright future in this league.

00:06:43
Speaker 2: Add samajp Ryan.

00:06:46
Speaker 1: Chase Brown had a monster game in Week sixteen, but Samaj p Ryan has had pretty good usage in that backfield lately. He's averaged a forty one percent running back rush share over his last four games. He hit nearly a ten percent target share against the Dolphins on Sunday. So if you're in a deeper format, p Ran might be worthwhile to take a look at. This week, the Bengals get the Cardinals and then aforementioned matchup, and their team total is approaching thirty points. Arizona's also a top five matchup now for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed.

00:07:16
Speaker 2: Ad Tyler Shuck.

00:07:18
Speaker 1: Now, Tyler Schuck hasn't been amazing as a fantasy ascid over the last month or so.

00:07:22
Speaker 2: But he's been really, really solid.

00:07:24
Speaker 1: Shuck has now scored seventeen or more standard Fantasy points in each of his last four games. He's thrown for two hundred and seventy two and three hundred and eight yards over his last two. This week, the Saints get the Titans, and prior to the Titans facing the Chiefs this past week, they'd allowed a top ten quarterback performance in eight straight games. Now, this game total between the Saints and the Titans, it is low. It's below forty points. That's pretty alarming, But I don't think Shuck is that bad of a streamer. In fact, I would be playing Shuck more than likely over Gino Smith Ad Taysom Hill. No, look, there's no telling what the Saints are going to do with Taysom Hill in Week seventeen, So do understand that this recommendation, this transaction comes with a lot of volatility. But his usage was kind of awesome on Sunday. He led the Saints with twelve carries, completely burying any hope that people had for Adrogessimey or Evan Hall. Hill then also completed a thirty eight yard passing touchdown, and he saw six targets, the most of these had in a single game this year, and that was all on a forty four percent snapshare. But that's also precisely the problem. Hill isn't some full time player who's always going to be on the field. His usage rate was just out of control against the Jets. Now there's always a chance that that happens again in Week seventeen. There's just a wide range of outcomes. Maybe you want to add Hill because you don't want your opponent to have that kind of ceiling, to have that kind of volatility that could favor them, because we know that Taysom Hill is capable of these outlier performances. Or maybe you're just the underdog and you need that sort of volatility. Then hypothetically you might be able to use Taysom Hill hold Colston Loveland. Now, look, you're allowed to be disappointed with Colston Loveland's Week sixteen performance, but his usage was not that bad. Without Luther Burden and Romadunze in that lineup, Loveland had a season high eighty two percent route share, he just didn't see a major uptick and target share. His target share was still about seventeen percent. The Bears get the forty nine Ers this week though San Francisco pre Monday Night Football. They've been an above average matchup for tight ends this year, so I still think Loveland is a solid enough choice for a tight end needy team this week, and obviously he's more attractive if Luther Burden and Romadunze are out again.

00:09:45
Speaker 2: Add Juwar Jordan.

00:09:46
Speaker 1: So Woody Marks ended up being inactive in Week sixteen with an ankle injury. He seemed to be kind of close to playing, so there's a chance that he's back this week, but if he's not, you.

00:09:55
Speaker 2: Probably wouldn't at least have Juwar Jordan rostered now.

00:09:58
Speaker 1: The Texans don't have an easy matchup against the Chargers, but Jordan's saw sixty eight percent running back rush are in a fifteen percent target share against the Raiders. If Mars is out again, that could translate to more fantasy points in Week seventeen.

00:10:14
Speaker 2: Add Chris Rodriguez.

00:10:16
Speaker 1: I feel like I talked about Chris Rodriguez every single episode over the last month or so, but there's a reason for that. He's still rostered in fewer than thirty percent of Yahoo leagues, and in Week seventeen he gets a pretty good match up against the Cowboys. Now, Dallas is especially good for running backs when Quinn Williams is sidelined. He was out this past week, so you got to see if he's gonna play this week. But it's not the worst spot for Rodriguez even if Williams is back. Rodriguez was back in Week sixteen himself. He saw sixty two and a half percent running back rush share, which was his highest mark of the season. That resulted in fifteen carries for sixty three yards in a touchdown. Now, the ceiling isn't massive for Rodriguez because of the lack of pass catching, but he at least can provide flexworthy numbers for year championship rosters. Drop Dalton Kincaid. Look, my record this year with drop candidates has not been incredible. It seems like anytime I recommend you drop someone, something happens favorably for that player to see more work. But look, it's process over results. Kincaid hasn't reached a sixty percent route share since Week nine. He's coming off a game against Cleveland where he saw six percent target share, and the Bills get the Eagles this week, a team that's giving up the second fewest adjusted fantasy points the tight ends this year.

00:11:28
Speaker 2: It's the final week of the season.

00:11:30
Speaker 1: You have to ask yourself if you're okay with your opponent using a player that you're about to drop. In the case of Dalton Kincaid, you're really banking on a big player a touchdown and with his usage being as low as it is along with that Week seventeen matchup process says that he's a reasonable player to drop right now. Add the New England Patriots defense. New England's defense is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and they are a strong choice this week because they get the Jets. The Jets have just a fifty team point imply team total. They've also allowed opposing defenses to rank in the top five against them in each of their last three.

00:12:06
Speaker 2: This is a clear good spot for this New England defense.

00:12:12
Speaker 1: Add the New York Giants defense, so for us favorable of a matchup as the Giants are for opposing offenses because they did talk about Geno Smith and Trey Tucker on this show. Let's not pretend that Vegas' offense is amazing. Opposing defenses against the Raiders have ranked his top ten Fantasy units in seven consecutive games. This Giants Raiders game this weekend has a fairly low forty two and a half point total, so I think the Giants are more of the traditional lower rostered streamer this week. So naturally, with the last episode of the season, we've got a bonus transaction. It's to add Jake Tanjis. George Kittle was destroying that Indianapolis defense on Monday night, but then an ankle injury knocked him out late. Now, that injury occurred earlier in the game and he played through it a bit, but then the team eventually just held him out. We don't know his status right now for Week seventeen against Chicago, but if he's out, Jake Tongjis is an interesting streamer. He had a lot of usability earlier this year. With Kittle sidelined in Chicago that matchup in Week seventeen, they have the tenth highest adjusted target share allowed to tight ends this year.

00:13:19
Speaker 2: That's it for today's show, though, Thanks all of you for listening.

00:13:22
Speaker 1: If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestretching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. That's it for the podcast this season. That's the final episode of twenty twenty five. Like I said at the top, I'm still doing content for subscribers this week, but there won't be any more episodes. Now, before I let you go, I just want to take a second and mention now unbelievably grateful I am to do all of this, to have this platform to talk to you guys about fantasy football, you know, just to be vulnerable for a second. I know there are tons and tons of things that I've gotten wrong this year. I know someone listening to this you're probably upset about a piece of advice that I gave that went south. That's inevitable, And I hope this really gets through when I say it.

00:14:05
Speaker 2: I care. I really really do care, probably too much.

00:14:09
Speaker 1: I care deeply about giving good advice, about giving you that edge, about helping you understand this game on a level that you didn't know as possible.

00:14:17
Speaker 2: But through all of that, through the ups.

00:14:19
Speaker 1: And downs of player injuries and breakouts and bus I hope I've been able to provide the escape that you've needed. We all face tough times in life, and sometimes this world can be a scary place. I just want you guys to know that I'm always going to do my best to be here when you want to get away from it, even if it's just zoning out while you mow the lawn or when you're at the gym, whatever the case may be. I'm truly honored to be your escape. I'm honored that you choose to listen to me. I know I say thanks all the time on the show, thanks for tuning in, thanks for listening, but I mean it. Thank you. You've given me more than I could have ever dreamed of. And it's been another great year of getting to know some of you, experiencing the ups and downs of this game, and just getting away from reality a little bit. And I can't wait to do it again in twenty twenty six.