430: Mailbag 10/16/20

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the last with your host, JJ Zachera, J J. Zacherson.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

00:00:12
Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyice and the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and thirty of the Late Round podcast and many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Ah I wanted to kick off today's Mailbag episode just a general note about managing your fantasy teams this year. But the way that the IR is set up, players can come back in just three weeks. Historically, when players were on IR, we wouldn't pay much attention to them because they would be on the IR for weeks and weeks and weeks. But one of the keys to winning this year is paying attention to players coming off of R and seeing if those players are on your waiver wire. And this week it's Sterling Shepard and Dallas Goddard. They're coming off soon. I didn't mention them on the fifteen Transaction show, but go check and see if one one of those guys were dropped, and feel free to add them now and be.

00:01:03
Speaker 2: Ahead of things.

00:01:05
Speaker 1: I wanted to just bring that up today so that it's not missed this week because as I was going through my waiver wires this week, I did notice those players were out there in some of my shallower leagues, and since I was adding them, I want to make sure that you guys know that I was adding them because it can help you. There may be others in your league that are ready to be picked up, but those were two who popped into my head to specifically point out today. Anyway, this is a mailbag episode, so we've got some questions this week, but before get into them, I want to let you guys know that we've got another Listener League contest over on fandle this week. For all FanDuel podcast Network listeners, enter the rake free weekly NFL contest made exclusively for you, the listener. It's just five dollars and you can compete for your share of the fifteen hundred dollars prize pool, including one hundred and fifty dollars to first place, and you can enter up to three lineups and it's rake free to enter. Visitfandle dot com Slash League Slash Listener League Eligibility restrictions apply. The first question this week is from at dB Burner Now with Dak Prescott out. What do you think about the Cowboys wide receiver situation. Do you think Ceedee Lamb is going to continue bawling? Look, I think it's only natural to assume that the wide receivers on that team see a downgrade, even if it only ends up being slight, But I think range of outcomes wise, it could end up being pretty big. Not just because there could be a downgrade and overall efficiency, but the Cowboys could just not be as pass heavy. They've been the eighth past friendliest team in neutral game scripts this year, and they've been the most pass heavy team in terms of overall pass to rush attempt ratio. But not only is that past to rush ratio high, they've also been running a ton of plays. They've run the fastest pace in the league by far, even in neutral game scripts, and they've run the most overall plays in the entire NFL. There's a very real possibility that they slow things down with Andy Dalton under center. There's a possibility that they don't change a ton because Dalton's a capable quarterback. But in terms of probability, which is how we should look at fantasy football, I would side with them changing up the offense. A bit. What that means that there could be fewer overall plays. We should expect for there to be fewer overall plays. And if there are fewer overall plays to go along with maybe a slightly more run heavy approach, well then we have fewer targets for the wide receivers. So a fifteen percent target share for a wide out on that team with Dak Prescott that might be more like a twenty percent target share with Andy Dalton in order to maintain that production.

00:03:36
Speaker 2: So it's tough to call this a neutral.

00:03:37
Speaker 1: Move for the wide outs. Can Seedee Lamb still be relevant, absolutely, especially considering the matchups that he sees and where he lines up on the field. But I still think we obviously have to downgrade the wide receivers on this team, But you don't have to go out and drop them. I don't see the point in that. Just wait and see how things turn out here in Week six. This question says, care to evaluate the Jacksonville running back situation moving forward? Has James Robinson been the real deal? Or should I fear the returns of Armstead in a zigbo? By the way, thanks for the James Robinson hype this offseason. You're the main reason I picked him up. Thanks. So, first off, I don't really know what's going on with Recall Armstead. He's been on the COVID list for a really long time. I honestly hope that he's okay. I tweeted about this on Thursday and I couldn't really find any real status update on Armstead. So strictly from a fantasy standpoint, I don't think that he's someone that Robinson has to worry about this season. I don't really think that we're in danger of Robinson losing snaps to a zigbo.

00:04:36
Speaker 2: Either.

00:04:36
Speaker 1: To be transparent, Robinson hasn't been special when looking at number Fire's expected points model. He's in like the twenty fifth percentile or so among relevant running backs in success rate. But given the fact that Jacksonville's really only gone forward with his usage, the fact that Robinson's been more involved as a receiver while maintaining his rushing share, that tells me that Jacksonville really likes him. They want to get him involved. So I'm not overly concerned with a zigbo unless Robinson really drops off and starts to be totally ineffective. This asked questions from at uk rams one. HEYJJ. In the build up to the season, you said league winning running backs come from ambiguous backfields. It seems Darryl Henderson fits this so far this season, He's now a sell as there is a potential committee. But isn't this something that we should expect when targeting ambiguous backfields. This is a really good question. I love this question. The idea behind ambiguous backfields is more so that a player is so undeniably good that he then takes over said backfield. As you might recall, Henderson was something that I was into in August because there was always the possibility that Akers wouldn't pan out, and Henderson himself was a good prospect and the price was right. That's the most important thing. Henderson was basically free at the end of August. And I said this a couple weeks ago on the podcast. But I'm a believer that Henderson's been the best running back in that backfield so far this year. But his peripheral haven't told us that he's ascending into a role where he's a locked, in no doubt RB one. Even without Cam Akers, Henderson wasn't hitting a fifty percent snap rate. If those peripheral numbers were there, I would feel better about the team's willingness to go with one warkhorse back. The Sel Henderson transaction this week was a reflection of that. It was the fact that even though he's produced, those secondary numbers are not RB one type numbers. And then on top of that, McVeigh is talking about getting cam Akers more involved. Even though that idea is true that finding breakout running backs comes with targeting these ambiguous backfields, it doesn't mean we should just blanket that across all circumstances, because remember, there aren't many true breakout running backs every season to begin with. It doesn't happen very often. You've got to take it case by case. And who knows, Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe Henderson ends up being that guy. My fantasy teams wouldn't hate it. But this is just my read on the situation right now. This tis questions from at f F fanatic for life. Where does Jonathan Taylor now rank in your rest of season projections compared to where you had him after Marlon Mack went out. It feels like Rivers being terrible as a quarterback is really holding him back. Thanks for tuning into my question and then I got another question from at fifty burgerd. Why is Jonathan Taylor underperforming compared to your pre draft analysis? Stack boxes, lack of down the field passing game, trying so hard not to fumble, he's lost ability to create yards. How should we view his talent moving forward as opposed to opportunity? So, among the thirty running backs with fifty or more carries this year, Jonathan Taylor ranks twenty third in success rate. He hasn't been that great. He's been better than Nihim hines In's success rate, but he's been about the same as Jordan Wilkins. So again, even in the context of his situation, Jonathan Taylor.

00:07:52
Speaker 2: Has been kind of met.

00:07:53
Speaker 1: And then you look at some Pro Football Focus numbers. He's been bad in yards after contact per attempt, and he's been fairly average in terms of player grade. To top all this off, Indianapolis hasn't given him the type of workload that we might have expected, at least post Marlon Mack injury. Fortunately, he saw a nice big jump in running back rush share this past week, where he saw seventy five percent of the team's running back crushes.

00:08:16
Speaker 2: So things are.

00:08:17
Speaker 1: Trending up after being below fifty percent in weeks three and four. But because Indianapolis is the second slowest team in football because they're below average and yards per play, they're also below average and plays run. All of that combined is a bad formula for success. The fact that Jonathan Taylor isn't playing very well. The Colts are slow, they're not that effective, and they're not running that many plays as a result, so volume's not really there. But I'll say what I said last week about these rookies, we have to be patient.

00:08:49
Speaker 2: Is Taylor underperforming? Absolutely?

00:08:51
Speaker 1: I had him basically as like the RB seven or RB eight when the Marlon Mack injury happened, and he's currently the RB thirteen. I would just remind you that we're only four games in in terms of seeing Taylor without Marlon Mack, that's not a large sample. I'd expect his talent and what he brings to the football field to get better and that'll hopefully that'll hopefully result in more playing time and fantasy points.

00:09:17
Speaker 2: This has questions from at Fishwind, what the hell do I do with Josh Kelly.

00:09:21
Speaker 1: Now, I think with any of these types of questions where we've had one game and that game didn't go well for a player who was supposed to take on a bigger workload. The question really should be what are your actual options? Like I see these questions all the time, and I know that some of them are just fantasy managers that are tilting, But seriously, what are your choices?

00:09:41
Speaker 2: What can you actually do with Joshua Kelly right now?

00:09:45
Speaker 1: Are you gonna trade him trading him off of a down game when he hasn't done much since the beginning of the season, That just seems kind of unwise. Are you gonna drop him? Well, in most leagues, any running back seeing volume should be rostered. So your only choice right now is to keep him around and hope that moving forward he's able to capture more of that backfield chair. And at the very least, guys, he's gonna be the goal line back even when Austin Eckler returns.

00:10:12
Speaker 2: This X person says, Hey, JJ, love the show. Thanks.

00:10:15
Speaker 1: What should we do when we have both Edmunds and Kenyan Drake need the bench space, specifically with bye weeks coming up. I would try to trade one of them. I think the perceived value of Kenyan Drake is higher than Edmunds when I think Edmunds has a shot to take on a bigger and bigger role this year, hence the Bye transaction last week. But I'll be honest, this is precisely why I'm not a fan of stacking backfields. It's an easier said than done strategy. In theory, it may sound like a good idea that you're bound to have in RB one or maybe a high end RB two if you just capture a backfield, but so often, so so often, the backfield just ends up being split and it leaves you with a crappy running back situation. The worst thing in the world is that a perceived handcuff ends up actually taking work from the RB one. That's exactly what's going on with Chase Edmonds versus Kenyan Drake. It's like if Tony Pollard started digging into Ezekiel Elliott's workload.

00:11:13
Speaker 2: That would suck. That would suck.

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Speaker 1: If you had Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, you want one or the other. That's why I've said that I would rather have Edmonds without Drake, and I'd rather have Drake without Edmunds. It makes your weekly decision making a lot easier so I would trade one of them, and I think you should be able to get a lot more for Kenyan Drake. Hopefully it's a PPR format though otherwise it's a more difficult decision. The sess questions from at Morty Lazarre. Do you think the Steelers can have three fantasy worthy wide receivers? Who is Claypole taking targets from? Well?

00:11:48
Speaker 2: First off, I don't think.

00:11:49
Speaker 1: We should assume that Claypole continues down this pace of seeing over thirty two percent of Pittsburgh's targets like you saw in Week five. That's not going to happen each week, especially when Deontay Johnson is back. This all depends on how you define fantasy worthy. Do I think any of these wide outs is likely going to be a top twelve wide receiver from here on out? Probably not. Do I think there's a chance that we see two of them maybe finish in the top twenty four, sure, and maybe the third one finishes a wide receiver three.

00:12:15
Speaker 2: I think that's.

00:12:16
Speaker 1: Possible, and there are always places to steal target shares. James Washington is almost a fourteen percent target share this year. Like I said earlier in the week, he's the one player who's likely going to lose out from this Chase Claypool emergence. Jujus Smith Schuster hasn't even been that involved this year. He's a seventeen percent target share. All this does, in my opinion, is cap Juju's ceiling and his potential to get a higher number, a higher target share. And then with Deontay Johnson, the thirty two percent share that he had in weeks one and two, that likely wasn't going to continue week in and week out anyway. That's why this is really about what your expectations are. I'd say from here on out, Deonta's likely in that twenty two to twenty three percent target share range, Juju's going to remain similar to where he's been, and Claypole has a pretty wide range of outcomes. Let's be honest, but I think that projection wise, you're probably looking at a target share between fifteen and twenty percent. That's not all that abnormal at all from a target share standpoint, and considering the efficiency of this offense could bring. I mean, these are really good weapons. It means each guy can be relevant in some way in fantasy. This last question is from at Frank Nadke. There's been a huge increase in fantasy analysts citing betting lines and totals, but they make it incredibly obvious they don't actually bet when they can't wrap their heads around certain lines in totals. Situational spots arise from motivation and travel schedules. I think all fantasy analysts who don't already bet should try one season and see how they do before leaning on these numbers, even five dollars a game, just to test a lot of the lazy analysis. Curious on your thoughts. Okay, so first off, I don't really consume other fantasy information because I've got too much going on during this season. I'm just giving you guys takes that are from my brain. I love the fantasy industry and I'm friends with many many analysts out there that you guys probably listen to, but I'm not consuming their content because in season I.

00:14:11
Speaker 2: Don't have time to period. It's just how it is, and I want to get that out of the way first.

00:14:16
Speaker 1: But I also want to say I don't think I really agree with this at all, because what fantasy analysts are trying to solve by using that information, they're not trying to win a bet. They're using information to make better fantasy decisions. They're not using that information to actually bet on a game. And there are things with betting lines that we no correlate to fantasy success.

00:14:36
Speaker 2: You want high implied.

00:14:38
Speaker 1: Totals for your quarterbacks, you want your running backs to be big favorites. There's a lot of research that backs up these types of things, so utilizing that information has really nothing to do with betting, in my opinion. If an analyst is adding things like I don't understand why the line is X, or they're changing the lines, like they're saying, this game has a fifty four point over under, but you know what, I think that line should be forty seven. That's one thing because they're kind of giving betting advice. If they're just talking sports betting without actually understanding sports betting, then I'd say they may not be doing the best job as an analyst. But I don't think that's what you're saying here. If they're just utilizing the information to make fantasy decisions, that's totally different because they're playing off of research that says, hey, if you want to make better decisions in fantasy football, use these betting odds, use game totals, use implied team totals, use point spreads. Heck, you can even use player props. So I don't really agree with this. I don't think that fantasy analysts absolutely need to be sports betting analysts in order to use sports betting information.

00:15:44
Speaker 2: That's gonna know for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.

00:15:47
Speaker 1: If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I appreciate you listening this week. Have a great week end, and I will talk to you next week.

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Speaker 2: M