1049: Week 10 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lab Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha j Jake Zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I've been coming on this Sleepers episode over the last month, and I've opened it up the exact same way, basically saying, it was another pretty good week for the Sleeper Show. But it's been good for the last like four weeks or so. I told everyone I'd be transparent at the top of every show a few years ago, and I'm being transparent. It's been a good month of this show. Sometimes there are bad stretches, sometimes there are good ones. It's been one of the good ones. Last week's disappointments were mostly Tier three players. Brashard Smith had an NOFL game, Samaj p Ryan got hurt, Jerry McNichols literally did nothing, and the Jacksonville defense they were pretty mid. The worst pick out of the top two tiers was maybe Aaron Rodgers. He scored his twelve standard points and Bam Knight. He didn't get the workload that many expected, though I did say on the show I thought he was more volatile than people realized. But there were just way more hits than misses last week. And by hits, I mean just generally usable performances at quarterback. Jackson Dart, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold, they all had good weeks. Juwan Jennings scored fourteen PPR points, Wandel Robinson had about the same. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were both usable. Theo Johnson was fine, Alec Pierce had a nice day. Kyle Manungai dominated, Kareem Hunt had a reasonable twelve and a half PPR points, Colston Lovelin went nuts. Parker Washington scored seventeen PPR points. The Baltimore defense was great. I mean even Michael Wilson scored nine PPR points. That was his highest tally of the season. This recent heater has been fun, but things won't go this way all year long, and honestly, Week ten pretty difficult week. I think we might see a little regression, but I'll do my best, So let's do it. We'll kick things off as usual with players roster and in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might want to consider starting. I've got a couple of quarterbacks for you in this tier. Jackson Dart is one of them. He gets the Chicago defense that's allot of the third most adjusted points of quarterbacks this year, and that game has a reasonably high total. It also has a pretty decent pace scorer. That's my way of looking at how fast a game might play, given how quickly each opponent runs their plays. Dart has been great in fantasy. We know this. He scored at least fifteen points in all six of his starts. He's been over nineteen point four standard Fantasy points in five of them. He's averaging over twenty two points per game since becoming the starter. It's a great spot for him. Actually, I'd argue it's a smash spot for him. Sam Darnold's another one that you could look at. He's been running hot. He scored top nine quarterback numbers and three of his last four games and four of his last six. Data has a twenty six point imply team total this week and Arizona their opponent. They're totally average for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed. Teams are also throwing the ball against the Cardinals more than their season long averages. Their pass rate tends to rise by almost six percentage points when facing Arizona, so that gives Darnold a ton of potential. Running back is pretty brutal across the board this week. At the time of this recording, Aaron Jones is still rostered in eighty percent of leagues, so technically he qualifies for this tier as long as he plays, which is not a guarantee right now. I think he could be usable. The Ravens are playing better defensively, but they've still allowed the fifth most adjusted points to running backs this year. They've also given up the eleventh highest adjusted target share, which is big for Jones. He's the pass catcher out of that backfield. As I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, Jones was trending towards seeing really good backfield share numbers in Week nine before that injury. He's an OK player to use, and at least he's not super gamescript dependent like Jorge Mason. Is next on the list Kyle Manunguy. I currently don't know if DeAndre Swift is gonna play this week or not, but Manunguy he probably won himself some more work with his performance last week. Again Cincinnati even if it was against a really bad Bengals team. This week, the Bears get the Giants. New York is the second best matchup in Adusta points a lot of running backs, and they've given up thirty three rushing yards to running backs per game this year over expected. That's by far the worst number in the league, or the best if you have Kyle Manunga. So even if DeAndre Swift goes, manunguy has a real shot to be usable moving on to wide receiver. I've got two of them for you in this tier, and they are my two staples in this tier, Romeo Dobbs and Wandel Robinson. The Packers are banged up, Tucker Craft is out for the year, Matthew Golden's hurt, we know Jayden Reid's hurt. There's a chance we see a lot of Romeo Dobbs against the Eagles. Dobbs had a ninety three percent row participation rate in Week nine. That was just the second time he's been over the ninety percent mark this season. He's now averaged a target share per game rate of twenty six percent over his last six games. I bet that's higher than you expected. The Eagles have actually been a top half matchup for wide receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed, and they've actually allowed an above average number of fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers. So I like Dobbs Wanda Robinson had a great slot matchup last week. I think that Reid was correct. He ended the day with a thirty four percent target share that was the second highest of his season. He just couldn't get a lot going on with his four point four average at the target, so he went nine for forty six. He gets Chicago this week, though the Bears have given up the second most adjusted fantasy points to slot receivers this year, so Robinson once again is at least a high floor option. And look, I hate to sound like a broken record, but Kyle Pitts he's once again in this tier two. He's averaged a twenty six percent target share per game rate over his life three. He's continuing to run a route on ninety ninety five percent of Atlanta's dropbacks, and the Falcons get a Colts team this week that's allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points. The tight ends this next group of players. It includes guys rostern in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and at quarterback, I just have JJ McCarthy in this year. There's definitely some risk with McCarthy, it's his fourth NFL start, and Baltimore they've been better against quarterbacks of late. Over their last three Matthew Stafford scored just nine point three points, Caleb Williams had eleven point eight Tua had eight and a half last week. Across the larger sample, though, they're still the tenth best matchup by justin points allowed to quarterbacks, and they haven't gotten to the quarterback. According to Next Gen Stats, they have a bottom three pressure rate in the league. Even those games against the Dolphins in the Rams, they had really low pressure rates. Now, McCarthy hasn't been great in a clean pocket this year, but the lack of pressure definitely can't hurt. Playing at home in doors, having to keep paced with Lamar Jackson, I don't totally mind him in this spot. I actually don't have any running backs in this tier, so let's just move on to wide receiver now. I like Wandel Robinson a good bit more than his teammate Darius Slayton, but Slayton has hit a twenty percent target share in three of his last four, and his route share in Week nine was ninety two percent that was his highest since Week two. That resulted in eleven point two PPR points. Chicago's been mostly average against perimeter receivers this year, but I'm a little intrigued by the fact that they've allowed the ninth highest deepall rate and the third highest completion percentage on those throws. Slayton has been above a thirteen yard a dot in all but one game this year, so maybe he's able to capture a big play in this game. But even if he can't, he could still be fine and see some work. As I said on yesterday's ten Trends episode, Alec Pierce is getting more work in that Colts offense, and I do wish I called him out in the fifty Transaction Show earlier this week after doing more research, because even though they get Atlanta this week, the Falcons have actually just been a little bit below average at allowing Fantasy points to outside wide receivers. They've also allowed a decently high rate of deep balls against them this year. They just have defended them really well at the second best rate in the league, So there's definitely some risk with the field stretching piers, but you can't deny the work that he's seeing a twenty five percent target share over his last three He's seen PPR totals of fifteen, nine and seventeen and a half over that time, So this week he's a very high variance play. The Buccaneers are back out of their by so Tess Johnson has a shot to find your lineup. Over his last two games, he's seen target shares of eighteen percent and twenty five percent. Those are without Mike Evans for the most part. Last time we saw him, he hit a rout chair of ninety six percent. Now he gets a new England team that's allowed the fifth most adjusted Fantasy points to wide receivers and Tampa Bay has a twenty five and a half point total this weekend. It's a pretty good spot for tes Johnson. One of the easier calls this I think is probably Troy Franklin. I talked all about how he's seeing more work than Courtland Sutton on yesterday's ten Trends episode, and that's resulted in a twenty seven percent target shair per game rate over his last three. Now, the Broncos get the Raiders, they have a twenty six point imply team total and Vegas they're giving up the ninth most adjusted points to wide receivers this year. Now, all the logic that I applied to Romeo Dobbs earlier can be applied to Christian Watson too. Just bring it down a little bit because Watson's not playing as much, but they may need him to play more this week after back to back eleven percent target share games, and we know he's a big play threat. With the Eagles not playing as well against perimeter wide receivers. I don't think he's a terrible, terrible play And then there's Parker Washington. Brian Thomas has banged up and Jacoby Myers just got to Jacksonville and Liam Cohen confirmed that Parker Washington is still going to play more in the slot even with Jacoby Myers there, And that makes sense to me for the record, but that's big because he played his high slot rate of the year last week, where he was around sixty percent. That led to a twenty seven percent target share. He's been at our above a fifty percent slot rate in just two games this year. In those games, he's seen target shares of twenty nine percent and twenty seven percent. Those were his two highest target shairs of the entire season. Now, Houston's definitely a tough matchup. I'm not expecting the world here, but he could be peppered with some quick looks and that makes him a viable PPR option. Moving on to tight end Colston Loveland. He should see a good amount of work this week after his big breakout last week. The Bears have a twenty six point ply team total and the Giants their opponent. They ranked ninth and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends, So Colson Loveland's definitely a streamer, and so is THEO Johnson. In that exact same game, He's covered that twenty percent target share mark ever since My Elite Neighbors went down, and the Bears have given up the ninth most adjusted Fantasy points to tight ends this year and the tenth highest adjusted target share. So once again, THEO Johnson works as a stream. With Rashichi Heat out of the picture, Jiwan Johnson might become a little bit more relevant again. New Orleans has just a seventeen point IMPLY team total this week, but because of their pace, this has the highest pace score in the slate and Carolina their opponent. They've been pretty average matchup wise for tight ends this year by justin points allowed. Johnson has back to back top ten performances. He's still running a route on about three quarters of the same s dropbacks, so I think he's fine. Cardio Kade, Kate Aughton, he can get some action this week too. We know the Buccaneers are banged up at wide receiver. That's allowed Auten to see about a twenty two percent target chair over his last three. As I said earlier with Tes Johnson, the Buccaneers have a really high implied team total this week, and New England as a matchup pretty neutral against tight ends this year. And then lastly there's Dalton Schultz. The Jags have actually been amazing against slot wide receivers this year, but they've struggled against tight ends. Only Cincinnati has given up more a usted points in the position than Jacksonville has, and the Jags are top five and adjusted target share allowed. Schultz has two top seven performances over his last three. Now, I don't love that CJ. Stroud probably or at least might not go, but Schultz is an okay deeper option this last year, players consist of guys roster and fewer than twenty percent of leagues will kick it off with Marcus Mariota. Mariota gets the Lions this week and a game where the Commanders could be forced to pass quite a bit. They need to keep pace. De Troit's been a top half opponent for quarterbacks this year by justin fantasy points allowed, and Mariota can get it done with his legs. He's rushed for twenty eight, twenty and forty yards in his three starts this year, and he has a rushing touchdown too. I don't think he's a smash play, but that rushing should give him a baseline. Another one you could look at is Jacoby Brissett. The matchup on paper, it doesn't look amazing, but it's also not that bad. Seattle ranks is the seventeenth best opponent adjusted fantasy points a lot of quarterbacks, and they've also about thirteen passing yards over expected per game this year. Teams against the Seahawks they're typically seeing a bump and pass rate by about five percentage points. That's not that surprising because the Seahawks are playing well. But Jacoby Bursett's also been good. He's averaging almost twenty two points per game in his three starts. He hasn't dipped below nineteen point eight points in a single contest. Seattle's also struggled a little bit against tight ends this year, and we know the Cardinals offense largely funnels through Trey McBride, so I don't mind Jacoby Brissett. As I said before, running back is tough this week, and I don't have all the information that I need at the moment with injuries, but I've got a few backs for you that you might want to consider that aren't as dependent on those injuries. I know Jerry McNichols didn't really do anything last week, but he is their negative game script back. They were just in such a negative game script last week they didn't even really care to play catchup. McNichols, though, prior to last week, had targetshed of seventeen percent, ten percent, and twenty percent, and the Commanders they're eight and a half point underdogs against the Lions. Detroit also ranks in the top half of the league and adjusted target share allowed to running back, so that helps Meanwhile, an easier pick to make in this tier is Devin Singletary. I do prefer Tyrone Tracy still to Devin Singletary, even though Singletary played more snaps last week. But Singletary did play more snaps last week. If he gets in their sixty two percent running back rush share, he could easily give fantasy managers a usable week because New York, as you know by now, they get Chicago and the Bears are the sixth best matchup for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. They were allowing fifteen rushing yards over expected to the position per game. So Singletary definitely works. And then I also don't totally mind Blake Koram. I mean, I definitely don't love him because he's not doing that much through the air. But if this game script against San Francisco becomes favorable for the Rams, he could see some work. Since his really bad outing against this same forty nine Ers team in Week five, Korum has averaged a thirty seven percent running back rush air per game. The forty nine Ers have been top half in the league and adjusted points allowed to running backs, so there could be some points for Korum this week. But it's a very deep play at wide receivers, the Commanders are down to Deebo, Samuel, Chris Moore, Jalen Lane, and then maybe like Treylon Burks. Moore ran around on eighty percent of Washington's dropbacks last week, but he failed to see a target. Jalen Lane he had a sixty six percent route chair, but he also had a twenty four percent target chair. Lane has seen a little bit more versatility across the line of scrimmage. He's the younger player who's getting more experience, so while Lean his way as more of the desperation play in this offense. Not that I feel great about anyone, and like I said, you run the risk of them running some other wide receivers too, like Treylon Burks. That makes this even riskier. But the Commanders get the Lions. Detroit's been below average at stopping both slot and perimeter wide receivers on the season. There the tenth best matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed. I really hope you don't have to play Lane, but I'll call him out as an option. Xavier Leguet is probably someone I like a little bit more. New Orleans been a below average matchup for wide receivers this year by justin fantasy points allowed, but that's been driven more by their performance against slot guys, not outside guys, not perimeter ones. We've seen them allow three points per game to outside receivers above the average this year, when they're three points below the average per game versus slot receivers, leg gets an outside wide out who has a chance to see like a fifteen to sixteen percent target share. But I will say there is some risk here because the Panthers could easily opt to use a little bit more Jalen Coker, which in my opinion, they should be doing. It's just that Coker has been primarily a slot player for them, So I'm going with what they've been doing, even though it can be changed in an instant. This is seriously the toughest week of the season for this show. No Lie, I'm gonna end the wide receiver talk with rookie Kyle Williams. Kayshawn Boudi's banged up and Williams ended up tying Zac Collins with twenty routes run last week for New England, the Mario Douglas was only at thirteen. Stefan Diggs he led the way. He was at twenty nine Mike Vrabel talked about Kyle Williams potentially having more opportunity this week in New England. They get a Tampa Bay team that's an above average matchup for wide receivers. Teams facing Tampa Bay also usually funnel their targets to wide receivers. They the fifth highest adjusted target share allowed to the position. Now at tight end in this tier, we're always gonna have to choose between Elijah Royo or AJ Barner in that Seahawks offense. I'm just gonna go with the guy who ran eight more routes last week and saw twice as many targets, and that's Aj Barner. The Seahawks get the Cardinals, and Arizona has ated the eighth most adjusted points of tight ends this year while giving up the fourth highest adjusted target share, So I don't mind Barner as a desperation tight end streamer. On defense this week, the Browns are now rostered in way too many leagues to shout out, So I'll go Carolina against New Orleans as a top streaming choice, and then you could get away with jack in Ville against Houston, But that's a little bit of a deeper play. That's it for today's show though, thanks Alvy for listening. If you yet subscribe to Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are researching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.