584: 15 Transactions for Week 12

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Speaker 1: This is the Lab Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at Fandel and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and eighty four of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Fandle and Simple Mobile if partnered up to add an extra layer of excitement to one of the biggest free to play contests on the market, introducing the FANDEL Free to Play Gridiron Pick Them Contest presented by Simple Mobile, a completely free to play contest that gives you a chance to win big on Sundays. Here's how it works. Simply answer Pickham questions for the week's slate of NFL games and compete for a chance to win your share of ten thousand dollars in cash prizes. If you're one of the highest scoring users on the day, you'll be eligible to win some cold hard cash. Kickoff will be here before you know it, so head tofandle dot com, Slash Free Slash Contest, Slash Gridiron, pick them and make your picks to and skip the contracts with high speed data, talk and text on a powerful nationwide network with simple Mobile. For more details at fandle dot com or download the FANDLE Fantasy App. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's get to these transactions. Hold Elijah Moore. I think the term league winning player or league winner gets loosely thrown around in the fantasy world. Every single week there's a new league winner. And I'm not gonna sit here and say that Elijah Moore is going to be a league winning player. But I do think that he can help you win your league. Not single handedly, but I think he can help. Up until week eleven, More's peripherals weren't totally matching his production. And don't get me wrong, you guys know that I love Elijah Moore as a player. He was a ninety six percentile wide receiver in my model, but he's now scored ten or more PPR points in each of his last five games, despite seeing more than sixteen percent of New York's targets in just one of those games. And that game happened in week eleven, it happened this past week, or was targeted on thirty one point four percent of Joe Flacco's targeted attempts. I think that spike and target share is pretty big. He also played his highest snap share of the season at sixty six point seven percent, So then you pair that with his production, you have to think that things are only going to get better when talented players see the field more, When talented players are being targeted more, that's a good thing. And some of you might be listening to this right now, sitting there with Elijah Moore on your roster, thinking that you should sell him that he's coming off this big performance. But he plays for the New York Jets. Not only is the offense not very good, but they don't have a quarterback, and yet no one knows who the quarterback is going to be from here on out. It's like a week to week thing at this point. But if anything, I would buy Elijah Moore. The Jets have one of the best wide receiver schedules in the league from here on out, and then includes matchups against the Dolphins, a team that more just destroyed the Jags and the Buccaneers and the Fantasy football playoffs. That's weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. And this is the reason that I still think that someone like Corey Davis is still two and you can get Corey Davis for next to nothing. But again, if anything, Elijah Moore is more of a buye than a sell. But if you have them, definitely hold them by Chase Claypole. So if you look at the Steelers wide receivers right now, it's gonna be tougher to buy Deontay Johnson after what he did against the Chargers on Sunday night. But this transaction does apply to Johnson as well, it just applies more so to Claypool because he's gonna be easier to acquire. Claypole saw a little over twenty percent of Pittsburgh's targets in Week eleven. On the season, he has a target share per game of about twenty percent, So what he saw in Week eleven was right in line with what he's seen this year. And look, there's no doubt that Claypole hasn't lived up the expectation this year. But according to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed numbers, no group of wide receivers have faced a tougher schedule this season than the Pittsburgh Steelers wideouts, and from now through the end of the season, only two teams have better wide receiver schedules, So again, Johnson is the Steeler that you would want right now. Might be a good by low moment for Chase Claypool. Add Cedric Wilson. Amari Cooper has COVID, ced Lamb has a concussion, and the Cowboys have a short week because of their Thanksgiving Day game, So let's look at Cedric Wilson. Wilson didn't have that much usability when Michael Gallup was sidelined earlier this season, but this situation is not the same as that because when Gallup was sidelined, ced Lamb and Amari Cooper were healthy. They make up about forty percent of Dallas's targets and they could very easily and they probably will be sidelined on Thanksgiving. So in that game against the Raiders, I think Cedric Wilson's going to operate as the cowboys number two wide receiver. He had a seventeen percent target share against the Chiefs in Week eleven, and I wouldn't be that surprised if he saw like a twenty percent share on Thanksgiving. That can make him a decent playoff the waiver wire sell Terry McLaurin Terry mclaurin's one of the most underrated wide receivers in football PEROD. He's so good and in Week eleven he had one of his best outings of the season. He got five of the seven targets for over one hundred yards in a touchdown, and his thirty five percent target share against Carolina was his second highest single game share of the season. It would be stupid for me to sit here and say that Terry mclaurin's bad or something. That's not what I'm saying. He's still gonna produce. This transaction is about the fantasy playoffs. Washington's gonna take on divisional rivals Philadelphia and Dallas in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. They get Philadelphia twice, and that's not great news for Terry McLaurin. Dallas has been the eighteenth best opponent for wide receivers when looking at justin Fantasy points allowed, and they've shut down some top receivers this year. Mike Evans was the wide receiver seventy nine and weekly scoring against them in Week one. Keenan Allen was just a wide receiver three against them. Justin Jefferson was the wide receiver seventy five in Week eight. They haven't been flawless, but it's not an easy matchup. And then there's Philadelphia, who has Darius Slay. The Eagles have been exceptional against why receivers this season. They've allowed just three top twenty performances all year long. In the three wide receivers to hit top twenty, where Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Keenan Allen. When looking at justin fantasy points allowed, Philly is the third toughest matchup for opposing wide receivers. So if you're looking forward to the playoffs with Terry McLaurin, this is at least something to consider, especially because he's coming off that big day, you might be able to sell him even higher now. I think he's still gonna produce, but I do worry about this playoff schedule. Add Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman. So with Joe Flacco under center for New York on Sunday, we saw different utilization with their running backs. And I talked about this on the ten Trend Show last week, but Mike White, when he's been under center, he's been targeting the Jets running backs at an insane rate. During his three games where he's seen the majority of the team snaps at quarterback. Jets running backs have had target sharers of thirty nine percent, forty percent, thirty seven percent. On Sunday with Joe Flacco that was about twelve percent. And that's a big deal for Michael Carter and Ty Johnson because both of them have played pass catching roles in this backfield all season long. But now it's an even bigger deal for Ty Johnson specifically because Michael Carter could miss some time with an ankle injury. According to Pro Football Doc, it sounds like Carter might be dealing with a high ankle sprain that he suffered in Week eleven and that could sideline him for a few weeks. So that leaves opportunity in the New York backfield because across Carter's last seven games, he'd been averaging a running back rush share per game of over seventy percent and a target share per game of thirteen point six percent. I think Ty Johnson would get a nice bump if Mike White is the quarterback under center, but even if he's not, there's plenty of reason to add him this week with Carter likely out, and don't forget about Tevin Coleman either. Coleman played just as many snaps as Johnson in Week eleven, and he actually out touched him. I would prefer Ty Johnson because of the pass catching upside, but don't sleep on Tevin Coleman either. By the Buffalo Bills defense, I very rarely will sit on this show and advocate you go buy a defense because the replaceability of the position is just so high you can stream the position. But I think the Bills are kind of an exception. They're coming off of a game where they were torched by Jonathan Taylor, so despite being such a strong fantasy defense all season long, they're at a low point. Their manager might be fine getting rid of them, and you should pounce because in the Fantasy playoffs again, that's weeks fifteen through seventeen. According to my adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed method, no team currently has a better schedule than Buffalo. That's changed a little bit based on the results of this past week and what I talked about on last week's Mailbag show. But they get the Panthers, Patriots, and Falcons during those weeks. Those aren't like ideal matchups, but it's tough to find three consecutive weeks of decent opponents for any team in football. But that's what you're getting with the Buffalo Bills. If you'd rather stream defenses, go for it. There's nothing wrong with that. I just don't think it's a bad idea to see if you can get the Buffalo Bills for cheap. Right now, hold a manual Sanders. So, speaking of the Bills, let's talk about Emmanuel Sanders and what the heck is going on with him. He's averages five point eight PPERO points per game over his last four Across the first six games of the year, that number was fifteen. Now here's some bad news on the season. According to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed numbers, Buffalo wide receivers have faced one of the easiest schedules in the league. It gets rougher from here on out. They get multiple games against the Patriots. But I don't think Sanders is a cell because no one's buying him right now and his deeper peripherals haven't really changed. He played seventy eight point six percent of Buffalo snaps on Sunday, when his season long average is eighty one point three percent. According to Pro Football Focus. During this four game stretch where Sanders isn't doing anything. He's run the most routes for the Bills. He's getting a lot of cardio in so for now you have to hold on to him. His production hasn't been there, but his peripherals are still fine. Drop me, Cole Hardman. He is still rostered in half of Yahoo leagues. It's officially time for that number to drop. He hasn't scored more than five PPR points in any of his last three games. His target shars over his last two have been under ten percent, and his other peripheral numbers are dropping as well. During the Chiefs last two games, Hardman has run fewer routes than Byron Pringle, DeMarcus Robinson, and Josh Gordon. It's not gonna happen for me. Cole Hardman, Ad Marquez Valdez Scantling. It's always tough to trust MVS because he's more of a boomer bust deep ball threat, But in Week eleven he saw his second highest target share of his career at thirty two point three percent. He got four of his ten targets for one hundred and twenty three yards, including a seventy five yard touchdown. Now, it's highly unlikely he's gonna see that kind of workload each week, but having a volatile, high upside player on your bench, that's always a good idea. And maybe this at least is the start of them using him a little bit more, even when Alan Lazard is healthy. By DK Metcalf. So in my fifteen Transactions, Calum I wrote this last week about the Seattle Seahawks passing attack. I said, quote, they get a tougher matchup in Week eleven against Arizona before this cake walk stretch, but I wouldn't want to wait if you can buy at a lower cost this week. Do it turns out you should have waited, at least when it came to DK Metcalf. Metcalf scored just seven point one PPR points on Sunday, and he's now had back to back weeks scoring fewer than eight Fantasy points, and those are two weeks with Russell Wilson back and healthy. It's clearly a low point for DK Metcalf, but that means that you might be able to buy low, and you should be trying to do that. He still saw over thirty three percent of Seattle's targets on Sunday, and as I noted last week, the Seahawks have a pretty nice schedule for that passing attack from here on out. It's at least way better than average. I do think that going after Metcalf is somewhat of a high variance move because the offense is just not performing very well right now. So maybe teams that are locked into the playoffs, you don't have to go and trade for DK Metcalf. But if you're needing to take a chance, if you're a fringe playoff team and you need that upside, I think Metcalf is a great buy right now. Add Nick Westbrook Akine. So it was looking like Marcus Johnson was going to be the clear obvious wide receiver two with Julio Jones banged up, and then Johnson went out on Sunday and he suffered a hamstring injury, and then aj Brown he got hurt again. He hurt his chest. By process of elimination, Nick Westbrook Akine is now in play. He actually hit one hundred yards receiving on Sunday on ten targets, and while his target share wasn't the very impressive fifteen point seven percent, he did tie for the second most routes run on that team according to PFF. So I think he's worth an ad in moderate to deep leagues, and in super deep formats you could look to Des Fitzpatrick because of these injuries, he might be able to see a bigger role on the perimeter as well by Kyle Pits. So let's start with the bad news for Kyle Pitts. He has scored more than ten per points in a game in over a month. He's failed to reach thirty receiving yards in two of his last four and let's be honest, the Atlanta Falcons offense is mostly hot trash, but there is some good. Pits has average a target share per game of almost twenty two percent since Week three, and since that time, he's seen at least five targets in every game, and he's only scored once. That might seem like a bad thing, but it's tough for anyone to score a lot of Fantasy points without finding the end zone. It also tells us that regression is probably coming. He should have more touchdowns than he does. He's only scored once this year. When his yards to touchdowns conversion, the number of yards a tight end typically has per touchdown. It tells us that he should have closer to four or five touchdowns. And you could look at other expected touchdown models like the one that PFF has and it says the same thing. It might not all come together this year. It's risky to go out and buy Kyle Pitts because the Atlanta Falcons offense just is not very good. But I think it's worth the gamble right now ad Cam Newton. So the streaming options this week at quarterback aren't very strong. There's a lot of quarterbacks in that like forty percent to sixty percent range over on Yahoo in terms of percent rostered. There's a lot of those quarterbacks that you can play like Cam Newton. Cam Newton right now is roster in about half of Yahoo leagues, and in his debut as starter this past week, he ran the ball ten times, he had forty six yards in the ground, he scored a touchdown on the ground, and he had one hundred and eighty yards passing and a pair of scores. Now, to be fair, the Panthers were facing the worst team and adjusted points allowed this season to quarterbacks that was Washington, so a big performance was maybe kind of expected. But this week, they get Miami. Miami has been the tenth best opponent for opposing quarterbacks, so I think that Newton works this week as a streamer, but he still continues to have that season long upside because of what he can do with his legs. Ad to Rod Taylor if you need more of a traditional streamer this week, Taylor works. He only threw for one hundred and seven yards against Tennessee on Sunday, but the weather in that game was pretty sloppy. Fortunately, he did what he does best for fantasy purposes. He gave us some juice with his legs. He found the end zone twice on the ground, and he ran the ball six times for twenty eight yards. That resulted in the low end QB one performance. This week he gets the Jets. The Jets defense is allowed at least seventeen and a half fantasy points their opponent's quarterbacks in every game since Week three. Add the Chicago Bears defense. So Chicago's defense has been a top ten defense in back to back weeks in Fantasy football, and that was after facing much much better competition than what they're going to face in Week twelve on Thanksgiving, the Bears get the Lions, and Detroit's probably going to be starting Tim Boyle for a second straight week. And if you missed it, in Week eleven, Boyle threw for just seventy seven yards and he had two interceptions. That was against the Browns. According to Number five's expected points model, Boyle had the worst expected points per dropback rate in the entire league this past week at minus point three seven. So with every Tim Boyle dropback, the lines effectively lost point three to seven points. He was successful in just thirty percent of his throats. I can't stress this enough. That is horrifically bad. The Bears are three and a half point road favorites with a low forty one and a half point over under according to fandals Sportsbook. They work as a streamer. The sixteen transaction this week that you can't get my fifteen Transactions column over on number fire dot com is to sell or hold Miles Gaskin. I don't feel like amazingly strong about this transaction, and it's mostly because I'm a believer that volume trump's most things in fantasy football, whether that's situation or whether that's matchup. So take this with a grain of salt. I think this transaction is geared more towards people who have Gaskin think they can sell high and are looking forward to the playoffs, especially if you're gonna get a buy. Because Gaskin's coming off a big game where he scored eighteen point six PPR points, it was the second highest total of the season. Over his last three games, he's averager running back rush are per game of eighty four percent and a target share per game of eleven percent. Those are both very good numbers. But my hesitation and the reason that I'm bringing him up is because of the fantasy playoffs. Miami has the second worst running back schedule in terms of adjusted Fantasy points allowed. In Week fifteen, they get the Jets. That's good, Gaskin just beat them up. The problem is Week sixteen and seventeen. In Week sixteen they get the Saints, and week seventeen it's the Titans. Those are two top five opponents against running backs. Again, volume drives the game, and Gaskin is seeing that volume. I'm just a little bit concerned about how he's going to perform in those two games. Maybe it's a little bit too specific, but if you can utilize the information to your advantage. That's a win. That's why I'm bringing him up. So he's either a hold or a cell for that reason. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got somescribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show