AvTalk Episode 210: Passing the Medium Flocking Bird Test

AVT 210 Transcript
EPISODE 210
[EPISODE]
[00:00:07] IP: Hello and welcome to Episode 210 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here. Once
again, as always with –
[00:00:17] JR: Hello. Jason Rabinowitz, here. Good to be back. Thanks for flying solo, last
week, Ian. That was exciting for you.
[00:00:22] IP: Exciting is a word for it. But we got it done. I hope people enjoyed the episode.
[00:00:29] JR: I even listened to it. It’s a great job.
[00:00:31] IP: Let's see, we've done 210 episodes, a few more, because we've got a few
special episodes in there. So, is that the first or second one you've listened to?
[00:00:39] JR: One in, so I've got a couple more to catch up on.
[00:00:43] IP: It gets good in the second season. Let me tell you. Well, I hope you're feeling
better.
[00:00:46] JR: Yes, thank you.
[00:00:48] IP: And welcome back to full strength and welcome back to the show.
[00:00:50] JR: Thank you. What do we got this week?
[00:00:53] IP: We've got a ton of stuff. Yes. So, let's start in the Netherlands with what's been
going on at Schiphol Airport. This week, a local Dutch court ruled against Schiphol saying that
they did not follow proper procedures before they attempted to implement a flight cap of
460,000 flights for the beginning of the 2023 winter season. So, this would go into effect in fall of
2023. They were previously, or I guess, currently are still at 500,000 flights, and they were going
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to move that down to 460,000. Airlines, I add a sued and said, “Hey, that's not the agreement
that we were promised.” And the judge said, “Yes, you didn't follow the – you can remove flights,
but only after everything else has been satisfied to meet these goals. And you didn't follow
proper procedures.”
So, what the Dutch government, which is a majority owner of Schiphol has said is that they want
to limit flights at Schiphol to 440,000 flights beginning in the 2024, 2025 winter season. So, the
fall of 2024. They want to have removed by then, 60,000 flights per year, from Schiphol Airport
in Amsterdam.
[00:02:12] JR: That's a lot.
[00:02:12] IP: That's a lot of flights. Amsterdam has been one of the only major airports to
embrace capacity constraint as the method for reducing emissions, both in terms of engine
emissions, and particulate matter, and noise. So, the argument that airlines made, KLM,
especially given their homefield advantage, shall we say, they said, “Whoa, we don't need to cut
flights to meet all these noise and pollution targets, because we've got new airplanes that are
quieter, and are more fuel efficient. And we're going to be using newer fuels, read sustainable
aviation fuel, and we can meet all these targets without having to deal with cutting off these
fights.
[00:03:02] JR: Yes, kind of seems like they were using a hammer instead of, I don't know, a
more precision tool here. KLM is saying we have so many other ways to achieve this, and they
just kind of went ahead arbitrary. Not arbitrarily, but unilaterally with this quite onerous
restriction.
[00:03:19] IP: Yes. I mean, the cuts are still coming in total, for the 24, 25 season. That will still
be 60,000 flights fewer. The airport also has a plan to ban all flights at night, and all business
jets by the 2025, 2026 winter season. So, not only will they cut out 60,000 flights, but they're
also going to ban all night flights, and business jet flights.
[00:03:48] JR: Interesting.
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[00:03:50] IP: I mean, given the numbers that just came out today, showcasing Amsterdam's
both passenger capacity, as well as freight capacity. The freight capacity, especially in the
overnight flights is an interesting piece of the puzzle to solve, where those fights going to go.
Because as we've seen, there's no shortage of air cargo growth on the horizon. So, it’d be
interesting to see how well that one works out. The business jet thing, is I guess, a little onerous
–
[00:04:22] JR: I understand that one. They can go elsewhere. I mean, let alone that the airport's
busy, and I don't know, and just closing the runway. That might enable them to do some more
construction and not have that happened during the day, and impact hundreds of people on
every flight, versus maybe potentially one. That one just makes sense to me. But yeah, banning
all night flights including seemingly cargo flights, that's not good. That that's not a well thought
out plan.
[00:04:51] IP: Yeah, I mean, to be fair, they wouldn't be the only major airport that bans night
flights. But –
[00:04:56] JR: – cargo hub.
[00:04:56] IP: Well, right, Amsterdam having not previously had ban on night flights has
enabled it as the cargo hub. So, it cuts both ways. Though, I guess it really depends on what
your definition of night is.
[00:05:10] JR: True.
[00:05:11] IP: If the night ban is only certain hours and not inclusive of kind of the whole night,
maybe that makes things a little easier. I don't know.
[00:05:21] JR: Yes. I don't know what's going on in Amsterdam. But as a passenger, I am no
longer confident in booking flights to/from or mostly through Schiphol at this point. I have a flight
up in June where I had the choice. Do I want to fly Air France to Paris? Or do I want to fly KLM
through Amsterdam? I shockingly chose Air France through Paris, even though it's the summer,
and we all know, French, everything is prone to strikes during the summer peak season. But I'm
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going to roll those dice, because I just don't trust that, A, we're over the hump from last year of
the operational issues. They had an Amsterdam where they just can't find people to work at the
airport, and they're cutting flights, not at random but with very, very little notice on top of these,
this going back and forth about new flight caps coming in, out of nowhere, or axing. What was it,
60,000 fights per year? With quite little notice, those fights exist today. They're not going to exist
at that point. But I just don't want to get caught up and having my booking screwed up, because
they seemingly can't decide, A, how to staff this airport properly. And B, should flights even
operate at all, to Schiphol. I don't know, at this rate, I feel like I'm just not confident enough to
book KLM and know that my flight will operate as I expect, or it'll become a casualty of a law put
in place, banning it because it's due to arrive at five. And I don't know, maybe they're close till
6am, at some point, in the near future.
I don't know, a lot happening quickly. And I'm sure a lot of other governments are eyeing very
closely what does and does not work at this airport, because I have a feeling it's going to be
replicated around the world, if it does work.
[00:07:04] IP: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens, and we have a few years. I assume
that much of this will go to the courts again, before any final resolution is understood.
On the good news front, there was a surprise flight plan filed yesterday on the fourth of April,
that caught my eye and got flagged by quite a few people, and that's the fact that sky up finally
got one of their 737s out of Ukraine. It had been stuck in Kyiv, since the beginning of the war.
They had taken off, and the flight actually had to return to Kyiv on the night before the war.
[00:07:52] JR: They did not get far either. They basically got up in the air and immediately
turned right back around.
[00:07:56] IP: Yes. So, it was like I don't know what happened, but they landed right back, and
the aircraft has been there ever since. Now, they finally made it out. They flew from Kyiv to Yasi
yesterday. So, now SkyUp has another 737 at its disposal. Good for them, and hopefully, kind of
a good sign that they felt that it was safe enough to get the aircraft out of Ukraine. They flew
without their transponder on, until they made the border. And then they turn their transponder on
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as they entered Romanian airspace. But good for them to get the aircraft out and no word yet on
how that operation all unfolded, though we are trying to find that out.
[00:08:37] JR: Yes. And of course, SkyUp being a Ukrainian airline, is not operating anything
resembling a normal schedule at this point. If you go to their website, it is, well first of all, they're
asking for donations for the Ukrainian people, which is fine and great. And then right under
there, it's just a big button for wet leasing, and they said they have 11 planes. I guess we'll add
one more to that. So, I imagine there's actually quite high demand, maybe someone over at
airBaltic will end up leasing this particular aircraft like we talked about a few weeks ago.
But just don't click on the routes button on the SkyUp airlines page because it's blank. It's just a
map with no lines. That's sad. But, hey 12 airplanes instead of 11 now, for their wet leasing
program, which I'm sure this coming summer, especially, someone will lease this aircraft real
quick. So, good for them.
[00:09:26] IP: Yeah, their aircraft have been all over the map. I mean, there are some that are
operating in, let's see, some that are operating in Africa. Some are operating in Eastern Europe.
I mean, they've kept them busy with the wet lease program. So, good for them for being able to
find placements for these. I mean there's – especially with the coming summer season. There
are airlines that need all sorts of capacity. I mean, Lufthansa is wet leasing aircraft for the
summer season.
So, I think that shows you how desperate airlines are for aircraft, and extra capacity. So, I
assume that as soon as they get this thing fully checked out and maybe cleaned up a little bit,
it'll be in service somewhere.
[00:10:07] JR: Good for them.
[00:10:08] IP: Speaking of capacity, there might be some A320neocapacity coming out of India
soon, not by choice. Go First has a handful of aircraft under repossession threat for nonpayment
of lease payments. They have six aircraft, at least, belonging to three separate lessors that are
under threat for them not making their lease payments, though this is a bit of an interesting
situation, because they're operating A320neos, that the A320neo fleet in India especially, has
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had historically over the past few years, engine issues, and so they've had to have a number of
them overhaul. Because of the supply chain issues and because of the issues with Pratt &
Whitney servicing their engines, which has affected airBaltic, and included its wet lease
program, they have a total of 30 aircraft out of 59 that are grounded. And they've not been
making lease payments on some of the aircraft that are the grounded aircraft.
So, I mean, not a great situation to be in, if you're Go First, certainly because you don't want to
be missing lease payments and lose your aircraft. But then, on the other hand, I can understand
how you don't really want to be paying for broken aircraft because the engines don't work. So,
Go First on its part, has threatened to sue Pratt & Whitney for not compensating them based on
the fact that they haven't been able to have these aircraft repaired, or the engines repaired in a
timely manner.
We'll see what happens there, because there are a lot of airlines that seem very unhappy with
Pratt & Whitney right now.
[00:11:55] JR: Yeah, that's, again, we keep mentioning airBaltic. This kind of just keeps
cropping up. GoAir is not far from the only airline experiencing issues with the Pratt & Whitney
geared turbofan engines. But in this case, it seems to be – I mean, there have been other
airlines with a few aircraft grounded here and there, but to have a major proportion of the fleet
grounded like this, especially in India, where the aviation market is just absolutely kind of just
major right now, with everything going on. There's so much demand within this country for flights
and, that's rough. I hope GoAir can make it through this. You'd hate to see an airline go bust,
because it bought into a fleet almost entirely of the newest, latest, greatest, most efficient
aircraft only for that to turn around and bite them in the ass, and not be able to operate these
aircraft. That's awful. And they also have something like 90 more of these A320neos on order.
So, if, and I'm not saying this is happening. I hope this does not happen. But if GoAir does end
up going out of business, that's a huge amount of A320neos that would be opened up back onto
the market. I hope that doesn't happen. And I hope Pratt & Whitney can figure out its supply
chain issues here to get these aircraft back in the air. But that's going to sting if you're operating
this airline. I mean, it's not the newest airline, but it's not the oldest airline founded, according to
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Wikipedia in November 2005. But man, that stings to completely swap out your fleet for a new
aircraft only to have it just not work.
[00:13:25] IP: Yes. Basically.
[00:13:27] JR: I guess there's something to fleet diversity there, isn't there?
[00:13:32] IP: I mean, it cuts both ways. It certainly cuts both ways. But it's been cutting one
way very deeply now, given the capacity constraints elsewhere, especially given how screwed
up the supply chain has been.
[00:13:46] JR: I mean, I'll move this up in the show notes. But there's one other airline out
there, Air Vanuatu. They have a single 737. They have one, but that one airplane is grounded
according to FlightGlobal. Again, because of supply chain issues. hey just can't get the parts
and this isn't even anything fancy. This is just a 737-800, an NG, regular old NG, not a geared
turbofan or anything, but they just cannot get the parts for these engines.
So basically, this entire airline aside from a single ATR is grounded, and that sucks. Financially,
a small airline like that is just not really in a position to take the kind of financial hit that
grounding – in GoAir’s case, a majority of the fleet and in Air Vanuatu’s case, almost the entire
fleet of one. But yes, supply chain still very, very much a problematic thing in the aviation
industry right now.
[00:14:43] IP: Let's take the flip side of that and talk about aircraft coming back into service.
Shenzen Airlines put their first 737 MAX back into service. It's the eighth Chinese airline to
restart MAX operations and they're doing what the Chinese airlines that have already put the
MAX back into service seem to be doing, which is doing one at a time, and doing it very slowly.
They've put, let's see B-1149 back into service. They've got 14 other ones in the fleet. So, most
of the other airlines in China have done the exact same thing, where they put a few back into
service, and they still have a bulk of their fleet of 737 MAX aircraft, kind of out of service.
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[00:15:34] JR: Well, it's great that we're to the point where Chinese airlines are putting the MAX
back in service, and I'm not even hearing about it until right now. So, how many more airlines
are there in China with the MAX that have yet to put it in service? They’re already up to eight,
there can't be that many more, right?
[00:15:49] IP: There's a few more, I want to say, there's 15 total airlines with 737 MAX in their
fleet. Though that number may have gone down, because I think, Okay Airways got rid of theirs.
So, I'll have to double check. But we're getting to the point where nearly all the Chinese airlines
that have already taken delivery of 737 MAX are putting them back into service. And in what can
only be described as super-duper, awesome, amazing news for Boeing.
[00:16:20] JR: Whoa.
[00:16:20] IP: I know. China Southern and China Eastern both say that they are almost ready to
resume 737 MAX deliveries.
[00:16:30] JR: All right. We've heard this before. Maybe it's for real this time.
[00:16:36] IP: But maybe it's for real this time, because they put it in writing and they put it in
their financial reports. So, end of the year financial reports came out at the end of March for
2022. Based on the fiscal year, China Southern and China Eastern both say that they're ready
to resume 737 MAX deliveries. China Southern, much more important, as far as the numbers
go. Thirty-seven this year, 35 next year, and 31 in 2025. China Eastern, a much smaller
orderbook. They're going to take two 737 MAX this year, and six in 2024. Remember that China
Southern was the first Chinese airline to put the 737 MAX back into service.
[00:17:19] JR: All right. That is good news. You were right.
[00:17:21] IP: Yes. So, I can only imagine that there's a lot of dancing happening in Boeing
headquarters, given that news, because that's a big piece of the puzzle. Getting Chinese
airlines to –
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[00:17:34] JR: We might get to the point where the parking lot out at Moses Lake is getting
rather empty.
[00:17:36] IP: Yes, maybe. I mean, it's a distinct possibility.
[00:17:39] JR: It’s not going to look like Beijing anymore.
[00:17:42] IP: No, it won't. I should also mention, while we're talking about China, on the flip
side of great news for Boeing, French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting China this week,
and there has been rumors that his visit will coincide with an announcement by Chinese Airlines
for additional Airbus orders. So, we'll have to wait and see whether that comes to fruition or not.
But we'll talk about that on next week’s show, right?
[00:18:10] JR: That's fine. It's not like Airbus. Is anything new to China. They literally have a
final assembly line in Shenzen.
[00:18:17] IP: Not Shenzen. Tianjin.
[00:18:20] JR: Yes, thank you. Tianjin. So, not that big a deal. There's enough – there are
enough airlines and enough orders to go around in China for everyone to be happy.
[00:18:26] IP: No. I'm not saying this would be like stealing something away from Boeing
necessarily. But I'm sure that the fact that Boeing has had such issues getting back into the
Chinese market is something less than exciting for them.
[00:18:43] JR: Indeed.
[00:18:43] IP: A few weeks ago, we talked about the FAA saying we have not nearly enough air
traffic controllers to operate all of the scheduled flights that airlines want to operate this summer,
especially in the very intense, and slot-controlled New York area, as well as the DC area. And
the airlines have said, “Yes, we know.” And so, they've started cutting flights.
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So, it sounds to me, based on all of the statements given by the airlines that yes, this is not a
surprise. It sounds to me they were waiting for this to happen. It doesn't sound like this is a
surprise to any –
[00:19:21] JR: No. Whether you canceled the flight the day of because there's too much
congestion or you cancel it six months ahead. Not even six months. Three months ahead of
time, which is way better to do it now, readjust rather than doing a day of. Not surprising to
anyone. Sucks for me and everyone else in New York who wants to fly to New York or through
New York. Book now, book early, and book frequently as I'm doing right now, because flights I
was eyeballing yesterday is already $20 more expensive today. So, not great. I get it though.
But we have yet to see if there are any routes outright that get cut. I would expect frequencies to
get cut, but maybe if the cut to JFK doesn't make the cut, probably shouldn't make the cut. But
maybe it doesn't. Not great.
I hope we end up in a better place next year, and it sounds like the FAA is working around its
issues, juggling around some airspace. We talked about this already. But as a New Yorker, it
sucks to know that the flight I booked now might not exist two months from now, and I'll have to
rearrange everything. But it is better to deal with it now, than to deal with it on the day of when
there's a four-hour flow delay program into LaGuardia. So, it's good. It's not great, but I
understand it.
[00:20:34] IP: Not great, but I understand it. There you go.
Four US states have now joined the Department of Justice in their suit to block the Spirit-
JetBlue merger. Attorneys general from California, Maryland, New Jersey, and North Carolina
have signed on saying, “No, we don't think that this should go through.” Interesting that it's those
four states, but I get it. I mean, thinking about which airlines fly to which cities in those states.
[00:21:05] JR: Yes. I don't know, I truly don't know how this is going to play out. I have my
personal opinions, that I'll leave on the side. But the table is looking ever so stacked against this
JetBlue-Spirit merger going through, especially in conjunction with the Northeast Alliance
between American and JetBlue. I can't possibly see both of those happening at the same time.
But we'll just have to wait and see.
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[00:21:30] IP: Yes, at this point, the concessions that they have to make to get this to go
through are what's going to be interesting to me, because I have a feeling that they're going to
let it go through, eventually. But getting the concessions out of Spirit, out of JetBlue. Well, out of
JetBlue, mostly.
[00:21:47] JR: It could be death by a thousand cuts that there's just not enough purpose to go
through if JetBlue has to give up 35% of its slots at JFK to make this go through. That wouldn't
make sense. But I bet that might be the case that the DOJ presents such onerous requirements
that if you want to get this merger to go through, here's what you got to do, that maybe they
don't want to do it. But I don't know. Again, as a New Yorker, with JetBlue as one of the airlines,
at least used to like to fly, I don't like any of this. So, if I wouldn't be too upset about that.
[00:22:22] IP: Jason, how about a new airline or a new virtual airline?
[00:22:26] JR: Yes, I don't know about a new airline. But let's call it something new, doing
business as someone else under the brand name, something like a third party. Will that work for
you?
[00:22:36] IP: It works for me. So, Red Way Airlines is getting started up from Lincoln,
Nebraska. You may ask yourself who's Red Way Airlines? Well, they don't actually exist.
[00:22:48] JR: I know Red Wings Airline in Russia. Is it them?
[00:22:53] IP: No. This is very different. I’m not sure why they called Red Way Airlines, given
that the planes that they're going to operate are all painted blue. But whatever. So, they are a
new virtual airline that has started up to sell tickets so that they can be operated by as a public
charter on behalf of GlobalX Air Tours, and those flights will be operated by GlobalX Airlines,
A320s and A321s. They're going to fly from Lincoln, Nebraska to Vegas and Orlando to start.
Then they're going to add Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, Austin, and Nashville. That's what I said.
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This is actually really interesting to me, not because what's the virtual airline part or the GlobalX
part, and all that fun stuff. But it's interesting to me that this all came out because Lincoln,
Nebraska lost service, but is left with only United Service to Chicago, Houston, and Denver.
[00:23:54] JR: That's three hubs. That's nothing to sneeze at. And almost regional airports
would kill the major airline with flights to three hubs.
[00:24:03] IP: But Lincoln, Nebraska says that, “Hey, we're bigger. We're better than that.”
[00:24:06] JR: Who does Lincoln think they are?
[00:24:10] IP: The capital of Nebraska?
[00:24:11] JR: If you say so.
[00:24:12] IP: I do, and I think they do, too. They're no Kearney but they're still a fine town.
Anyway, a Kearney, Nebraska joke on this week's podcast, I did not have in the bingo cards. But
anyway, the interesting thing here is that the Lincoln airport said, “Hey, we think we can support
more than just United. So, how about we try this.” And GlobalX looked at the numbers and said,
“Okay, yes, we're in.” So, they're going to do these public charter sales, Red Way Airlines, still
not sure how they chose that name. But they did. They will begin flights relatively soon. I believe
the first fight is in the beginning of June. So, good luck to them.
[00:24:54] JR: Yes. I've heard they're not even taking the small community air service
development program grants, which would make this make a little more sense, I guess. There's
no federal funding coming into this. So typically, when you see something like this, when I lived
in Michigan, Lansing, the little Lansing airport, they had some of these virtual airline flights, but
they were typically just like, once a week, summer seasonal flights from Lansing to like Cancun,
three months of the year, once a week, and it was fine. But because it was just one-way,
basically, charter flights operating under a virtual airline name to a tourist destination. But these
are flights from Lincoln, Nebraska to Atlanta, and Dallas, and Minneapolis, Austin, and
Nashville. I just don't really understand how they think they're going to get the frequency to go to
all these cities, but I'm sure they have done their research, figured it out. These really sound like
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a Southwest-ish kind of routes to me. Lincoln to Austin just has a real Southwest 737-700 vibe. I
guess they've done their research. We'll see if this is successful. But good luck.
[00:26:03] IP: Yes, good luck. Not so good luck. Ultra Air ceased operations in Colombia. They
were a small Colombian low-cost carrier. They had six A320s operating domestically, not such a
big deal in the overall airline dominoes falling yearly count. But the reason I found this very
interesting, was that not only are they the fourth Latin American carrier to fold this year, but the
blame that they placed at the feet of Viva Air's collapse for their own demise was fascinating to
me.
[00:26:42] JR: Wait, explain that to me.
[00:26:43] IP: Yes. So basically, what they said, and they posted this whole statement on
Twitter and then deleted it off Twitter, which I felt was even stranger. But what they said was,
because Viva Air collapsed, their suppliers and lessors started demanding payment for service
at the time of service, like your copayments do now, or pre-payment for services.
[00:27:07] JR: Kind of get it, like there's shakiness in the air, in the industry. Now, we don't trust
any of you. So, pay up. I kind of get that, but that sucks. Has anyone's seen Steve Giordano
recently? Is he in Columbia by chance? It just feels like he's probably got a trip plan to Colombia
in the near future.
[00:27:24] IP: He may. I don't know. But yes, I thought that was very interesting. They went and
placed a lot of blame on the Viva Air –
[00:27:31] JR: And then deleted it.
[00:27:32] IP: Yes, they deleted that particular statement off Twitter. For their part, the
Colombian government said, “No, you just didn't have any money and no one wanted to give
you more. This is your own fault.”
[00:27:43] JR: Fair enough. It sounds like it didn't take much to tip them over the edge.
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[00:27:48] IP: No. With Viva, anything other airlines stepped in and helped get some stranded
passengers where they needed to go. But still, not great that there are more airlines that won't
see the end of the year. And they weren't that old. They'd only operated for 14 months.
[00:28:06] JR: Oh, sad.
[00:28:07] IP: Yes. In news, that was a long time coming, but I'm old enough to remember when
they were mortal enemies, Canada and Emirates have now signed an expanded open skies
agreement.
[00:28:21] JR: That's great. As you said, it is not all that long ago in history where Emirates just
could not get a break in Canada that they had a cap of like, was it one flight every other day
they were allowed to operate to Toronto or something like that? Just hugely restrictive
restrictions placed on the Middle Eastern carriers flying into Canada. But they say this new
expanded agreement allows for up to 21 flights per week, per each of the countries. I believe
that – I mean, it just says UAE in this, so I'm not sure what that's getting at. But the permit
allows for 50% more flights in the maximum previously possible. So, that's a nice solid increase.
But this is really, I put this in the show notes, just because there's really an interesting trend
recently of former vicious enemies making amends at this point.
We saw this recently with United and Emirates, really reversing the trend of over the last 10
years of just utter hatred towards the Middle Eastern carriers, specifically Emirates and Qatar
and Etihad. Now, they're buddy-buddy partners, doing media events in Dallas with their own
aircraft, and now are seeing even Canada lifting its restrictions, onerous restrictions on the
Middle Eastern carriers. Now, that Emirates will be able to operate 21 flights per week, for
somehow 21 flights is a 50% increase, it's still just not a lot considering they have three daily to
JFK alone, a pair at LAX. So, they'll probably hit that 21-cap real quick.
[00:29:56] IP: But on the other hand, it's better than nothing.
[00:29:58] JR: It is better than nothing. That is true.
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[00:30:00] IP: I mean, we'll see how it goes. And we'll see where Emirates ends up serving in
Canada because at one point, they had tried to send aircraft to Toronto, Vancouver, and
Calgary. The Calgary flight was the one that like got under Canada's skin so very, very much.
Because it was like the heart of Canada. How dare they try and fly to Calgary. So, it'd be
interesting to see if Emirates tries to fly to Calgary again.
[00:30:27] JR: Yes, never go after Calgary. I mean, that one, that just made sense. There are
so few international flights from Calgary. There's like one Air Canada flight to Frankfurt, and
that's it. I'm scrolling through the departures now. If you want to go to Medicine Hat, there's
plenty of options. There's more WestJet flight to London and that's it. So yeah, heading Calgary
flight. That just makes sense.
[00:30:55] IP: I mean, obviously, I want to go to Medicine Hat.
[00:30:58] JR: Why not?
[00:30:59] IP: Who doesn't?
[00:31:00] JR: Yes.
[00:31:02] IP: Let's just leave it there and go to Medicine Hat.
[00:31:05] JR: Okay.
[00:31:07] IP: You know how to get there, through Calgary. Where are we going next? See, I
get distracted by Medicine Hat.
[00:31:13] JR: Birds, Canadian geese. We're not even leaving Canada.
[00:31:18] IP: Well, kind of. So, 14 years ago, there was a flight, you may or may not have
heard of it. It didn't really receive much publicity, did it? I mean, it was –
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AVT 210 Transcript
[00:31:26] JR: No. It didn't solidify Twitter as kind of the go to social media site for what's
happening at that very moment. No.
[00:31:34] IP: Anyway, what happened is, US Airway’s A320 flew into a flock of Canada geese.
And that led to well, the rise of Twitter is a breaking news source. Couple great books, movies,
maybe even a podcast, who knows. Now, 14 years later, the FAA has finally got around to
finalizing revised engine certification for bird ingestion.
So, a big thing about the current bird ingestion test, is it assumes the fan is spinning at 100% of
its capabilities. The criticism of that, going as far back as the NTSB report and safety
recommendations, is that the fan of the engine is not spinning that fast during climb out, or
during approach.
[00:32:27] JR: Or like, practically, ever, right? How often does it actually at 100% thrust? Very
infrequently.
[00:32:34] IP: So, the issue becomes, well, if the fan is not spinning as fast, there's a higher
likelihood that the bird can be ingested into the engine. So, we should certify for those slower
speeds, because that's when a bird is likely to be encountered. The new requirements, and
these requirements are called the medium flocking bird test at climb condition, they'll need to
send a bird into the engine at 160 knots, the 151 knots indicated airspeed, and ensure that the
engine can still operate, at least for a while after having ingested that bird, especially looking at
the core of the engine, making sure that the core remains operational to continue to operate the
engine.
The requirements, these new certification requirements are for newly certified engines, so
anything already on the wing, and any engines that are being built and certified under the old
requirements don't need to be recertified. But if there's new engines produced, and there will be
new engines produced, and certified, then these requirements will need to be met. So, look for
more bird test footage soon.
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AVT 210 Transcript
[00:33:50] JR: Oh, those are good. Now, so many years later, we're going to get some really
good 4k, 360 frames per second video of just birds getting annihilated by jet engines and I'm
excited for that.
[00:34:02] IP: Because everyone's got to have something they get excited about.
[00:34:05] JR: Yes. I mean all the video from back in the day of all the engine certifications. So,
a little fuzzy-esty video not quite high frame enough. But there's a whole industry revolving
around how do you launch a frozen bird carcass fast enough at a jet engine to certify it. This
industry is all full of interesting things like that.
[00:34:26] IP: There really is no shortage of nooks and crannies in the aviation industry.
[00:34:30] JR: No.
[00:34:30] IP: I guess speaking of nooks and crannies, it's time for actual snakes on an actual
plane.
[00:34:37] JR: What happened now?
[00:34:38] IP: I know, right? So, what happened was is there was a pilot flying in South Africa in
his Baron, and he's flying along, and she's got four passengers in the back. And then all of a
sudden, he feels some kind of crawling up the back of his seat and looks over and it's a cobra.
[00:34:56] JR: No. A deadly, deadly cobra? Not just like, “Oh, it's a little green snake.” A
venomous deadly cobra.
[00:35:06] IP: So, the snake had been spotted underneath the aircraft the previous day. The
day of the flight, they couldn't find the snake, so they figured the snake moved on. The snake
had not moved on. It was in the plane. Emergency landing completed, everyone gets out of the
plane, they start looking for the snake, can't find the snake. The snake is still nowhere to be
found. So, the snake got a free ride.
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AVT 210 Transcript
[00:35:28] JR: Yeah, that's great. I love reading the BBC article you link to here, where the
quote is, “Pilots are trained for lots of scenarios, but certainly not for dealing with snakes in the
cockpit.”
[00:35:40] IP: Yes. That's true. It goes on to say, they asked the pilot how the passengers
reacted, and he said that he described the moment of absolute silence. You could hear a needle
drop and I think everyone froze for a moment or two. If you're in a little – what were they flying?
[00:35:54] JR: Baron. Beech Baron. That is not a large aircraft. There's not much room on a
Beechcraft Baron 58 to escape a cobra onboard that aircraft. So, thankfully, I wonder where it is
now.
[00:36:05] IP: I'm never getting in that plane, I’ll tell you that.
[00:36:08] JR: Nope. Not until we can account for every cobra in the world will I get any
Beechcraft Baron 58. It’s not safe.
[00:36:18] IP: That seems a little extreme. But we'll go with it. Let's close the show off with
offering a Lockheed Super Constellation for sale.
[00:36:25] JR: Okay.
[00:36:27] IP: We are not personally selling the aircraft. But if you're in the market, the
Lockheed Super Constellation that was previously being – so it's the Swiss registered aircraft,
HB-RSC, and it's the second to last flying example, or it was. It was purchased by a German
consortium to try and restore the aircraft to flight condition. It was disassembled and that
process kind of never really got off the ground. So, they're now selling it. So, it's in pieces. It's
stored well. It's been disassembled and it is now for sale, and can be yours if you make them an
offer that they want to take you up on.
[00:37:15] JR: That's nice. I love how the site you link to, you can buy this aircraft. You can
directly call the seller, but there's so little information about this aircraft. It just says the aircraft
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AVT 210 Transcript
was last flown in October 2016. It was professionally disassembled and can be transported
worldwide. That's it. There’s nothing else.
[00:37:34] IP: So, reading between the lines, it's in a crate. Come get it from us.
[00:37:37] JR: It’s in many crates somewhere. There's no information about like the number of
hours on the engine or like the state of the avionics or anything. It's just, “Hey, you want this
1955 Super Connie? It could be yours. It's in Germany in boxes. Come and get it.” No, wait not
come and get it. It can be shipped worldwide.
[00:37:59] IP: Yes, exactly.
[00:38:00] JR: We'll put it in a bigger crate and send it to you. On another Super Connie, the
only other one flying somewhere.
[00:38:06] IP: That would be cool, right?
[00:38:06] JR: I like that idea.
[00:38:08] IP: Well, on that note, Jason and I are going to go figure out how to buy ourselves a
Super Connie.
[00:38:13] JR: Okay. Let's start raising the funds now. There isn't even a suggested price.
[00:38:17] IP: I know. One dollar.
[00:38:20] JR: Call them. Maybe they’ll accept it.
[00:38:22] IP: This has been episode 210 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here, as always with –
[00:38:29] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
© 2023 AvTalk 19