409: Week 1 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ Zachera, JJ zacher refa. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyes and the editor in chief at fandel and at number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and nine of the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. The Matchup show each week consists of me explaining who I'm higher on and lower on than most. This isn't really a starter sit show, and I don't go through every single game and matchup because one of the bigger points of the show is to walk through process to explain how I look at matchups each week. And then on top of that, I'm not just gonna say, hey, guys, I'm high on Christian McCaffrey this week. Each episode consists of mostly fringe starter type players. So at Quarterback I talk about streamers. At running Back, I'll talk about players that you might be considering starting or sitting the fringe players. That way, the show is actionable. It's a fun show each week, and I hope that you guys get something out of it before get into this week's players. Though I wanted to send another reminder and check out FanDuel's best ball contests. Unlike standard season long fantasy football, where you have to constantly make changes to your starting lineup and roster, you only have to focus on one thing, and one thing only. In a bestball contest, the draft. All you have to do is draft a twenty player team and you're done. Each week, your top scoring players automatically start and will count toward your season total. The team with the most points at the end of the season wins. No setting your lineup, no waivers, no trades, just the draft. It's the easiest way to play season long fantasy football. For more details, was it fandule dot com or download the fandel app Today eligibility restrictions apply. I really like Jimmy Garoppolo this week. It's kind of hard not to. His two highest scoring games last year in fantasy football came against the Cardinals, and those games against Arizona canbind to see you over fifty seven points per game in total. The Cardinals don't have the scariest secondary in the world, and even with the injuries of the forty nine ers wide receiver group, the matchup of George Kittle against a defense that was futud against tight ends last year should give Garoppolo a decent floor this week, and then if another high scoring game happens, the ceiling is there too. The Panthers could very easily end this season with the worst defense in football, and that plus matchup is going to benefit Derek Carr this week. Carr actually ended last season on a high note. He had three top twelve performances across his final four games, but the Panthers' secondary is very beatable. They'll be starting Dante Jackson in one of their cornerback spots, who gave up one hundred and twelve quarterback rating last year according to Pro Football Focus, and then they've got a fourth rounder in Troy Pride who's never played a snap in the NFL. Since it opened on Fandel's sportsbook, the game against the Panthers and the Raiders has moved up by a point, and I think there's a real chance we see a higher scoring game now that Derek Carr has upgraded weapons. I'll talk about them more later. Another streaming option this week is Tyrod Taylor. The Bengals are another average secondary and a beatable defense, and Tyrod's got what we love in fantasy football quarterbacks rushing. During his two starts for Cleveland two years ago, where he finished the game, Taylor averaged six rush attemps per game. The last time we saw him as a full time starter in Buffalo, back in twenty seventeen, he averaged that same number of rush attempts. He had six at his career yards per at temph of five and a half. That means you're essentially gaining over three fantasy points per game via Tyrod Taylor's rushing and that's just with yards that doesn't even count for rushing touchdowns. That knocks off a turnover and a half. And then you add in the fact that the matchup is good and that Taylor has pretty strong weapons now that he's in LA, and you've got yourself a decent quarterback streamer. Now, on the flip side of things is Daniel Jones. I brought up Jones on the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week because he's got a really tough first three matchups this year, and that starts this week with Pittsburgh. The Steelers have arguably the best defensive front in the entire NFL, and much of the defense is unchanged from last year and last season, the Steelers ranked in the top five and scheduled adjusted points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They're now almost touchdown favorites to win this game, which means a negative game script is definitely possible for Daniel Jones and it's very possible that the Giants don't score a ton of points. I'm nervous about Jones this week, and I would be playing Derek Carr or even Tyrod Taylor over him. Now, the other quarterback that I think that you can bench this week is Joe Burrow. Not because I think that he's gonna be some bad quarterback at the NFL level. It's just hard to trust Burrow during his NFL debut against a good defense and a good secondary. I've talked up Burrow this offseason as a good quarterback value, but given the number of quarterback options on your waiver wire, just play it safe in Week one in bench him. There's a lot of good options out there. If he does go off, at least you know that you've got a quarter who's potentially going to far exceed his ADP this year. Now, I still don't understand the big gap that we see between Devin Singletary and Zach Moss and rankings over on Fantasy Pros. There's a ten running back spot difference between Moss and Singletary. But there are reports coming out that Moss could just straight up steal that number one job from Devin Singletary because Devin Singletary can't hold onto the football, and like I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, Moss could easily end up seeing the more important touches in that backfield this year, like goal line looks regardless, I don't mind Moss as a flex option this week at all. The Bills are six and a half point favorites against the Jets, and they've got a decent enough implied team total of twenty three. If you're worried about a split backfield and starting a rookie, at least you know that if a positive game script does come to fruition, there's a chance that they give the rookie a shot. I wouldn't expect the world from Zach Moss this week, but I think he's fine as a flex. There's also Marlin Mack. I was not big in a draft. Marlon Mack or Carrie on Johnson, those types of running backs this year because I didn't see their pass to upside with talented rookies in their backfields. But if you drafted Marlon Mack and maybe you went with more of a zero RB approach, this is the week to use him. Jonathan Taylor doesn't have hold of that backfield yet, so Marlon Mack is going to get some run against Jacksonville. And it's a team that the Colts are big favorites against, and Indianapolis is the fourth highest implied team total on this week's slate. Points should be scored. And for what it's worth, last year against the Jags, Indie running backs carried the ball fifty two times for three hundred and forty seven rushing yards. Now yards per Kerry is not a good statistic, but that's six point seven yards per carry. It just shows that Indy has gotten nuts on the ground against Jacksonville in the past. So Marlon Mack is not a bad option this week. My deep play of the week at running back, and I mean deep, is Malcolm Brown. I mentioned Brown as a deep ad on the fifteen Transactions episode a couple of days and while I can't imagine ninety nine percent of you really need to play someone like Malcolm Brown this week. I do think there are worse desperation plays. The Rams are facing the Cowboys in what should be a legitimate shootout. Both teams ranked in the top three and neutral script piece of play last year, and both have good offenses. It's no surprise that the overunder of that game has risen a lot since it opened. When you look at the Rams backfield, you've got a rookie and Cam Akers who they might take it slow with. Not that I expect that per se, but it's definitely a possibility. And then you've got Darryl Henderson who's banged up, he's injured, and then there's Malcolm Brown. I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if Malcolm Brown ends up leading the backfield and touches in Week one. This is just a play on probability. Of course, Cam Akers is the favorite here. I'm just noting that there's reason to believe Brown could get more run than expected, and it's in a really, really attractive game in general. Two players I'm nervous about starting this week, who a lot of you you may have drafted as starters are DeAndre Swift and Leonard Fournette. Let's start with DeAndre Swift. He's got this leg injury, he's been limited in practice. That's not a good thing. And then the Lions went out and they signed Adrian Peterson, which I don't think is totally a knock on DeAndre Swift. I think it's more of a knock on their depth and potentially how they feel about carry on Johnson. But having Peterson in the backfield still affects Swift's numbers in some way. If you think Peterson is gonna step in and see a bow Scarborough workload who has put on ir after Peterson was signed, then I just simply disagree. Peterson's going to command more touches than Scarborough and that hurts everyone in the backfield. But then to top it off, they get a tough matchup against Chicago, and like I said, Swift is injured, you may not have a choice but to start him. I'm just down on him this week. And then with Leonard Fournette, it's mostly just how are we supposed to accurately project his workload. The game itself that he's in should be fairly high scoring, but my feel for his workload split is that it'll end up being a reletlatively touchdown dependent running back at least here in Week one, and that's not something that I want to bank on let alone when the rest of my fantasy team is likely healthy, meaning I probably have other alternatives. That's why I would not be using Leonard Fournette here in Week one. You probably got to Shan Jackson outside of starter territory in your draft, but you should strongly, strongly consider starting him this week against Washington, even if Jalen Reger does play. I talked about it briefly on the fifteen Transactions episode, but in Jackson's loan full game last year, he went for eight catches, one hundred and fifty four yards and two touchdowns, and it was against this Washington team. We should be somewhat afraid matchup wise of the Washington defensive line, but they have a beatable secondary and it's one that's a little bit banged up, and there aren't many alternatives in this Eagles offense right now for Carson Wentz to throw to. So I fully expect a big game from DeShawn Jackson. I'm also excited to see Deontay Johnson with Ben Roethlisberger. The Giants have the twenty seventh ranks secondary according to Pro Football Focus entering this year. Despite the fact that they went out and they signed James Bradberry this offseason, Johnson may not even see Bradbury for a lot of the game, given where he lines up on the field. Now, if you listen to the show this offseason, then you know that I'm fully expecting a big year from Deontay Johnson, and I think he gets things going on Monday Night in a game where Pittsburgh is just becoming a bigger and bigger favorite. Now, I liked Derek Carr earlier in the show, which means I naturally should be into his pass catchers too, and I am. I like them. Both Brian Edwards and Henry Ruggs are in awesome, awesome spots this week. Like I said, that game against Carolina opened up at forty six and a half points and it's moved up a point. I'm expecting there to be a lot of points scored there, at least more than expected. And as I just mentioned, James Bradberry is not in Carolina anymore. The Panthers have a lot of inexperience in average defenders, and that exists at cornerback too, even though Edwards and Ruggs are both experienced as well. This is their first game too. I think they're set up to have big weeks now. Two guys on the other end are Christian Kirk and DeVante Parker. Last year against the forty nine ers, Kirk was limited to fourteen targets, eight receptions, forty nine yards and zero touchdowns and that was in two games with a lot of scoring too. With DeAndre Hopkins in town, we don't know exactly what Christian Kirk's target share is going to look like. In most leagues, you probably did not draft him as a starter, but if you did, just temper expectations a bit. With Devonte Parker, I know he played well last year against Stefan Gilmour in New England, at least in that Week seventeen game he went off for eight catches in one hundred and thirty seven yards. But Gilmour is still Gilmore And there was a report this week that said that Brian Flores said that it's hard to think that players are going to play sixty seventy eighty snaps on opening day Parker has already a little bit injured. With the matchup, the potential for not a lot of scores, given Miami has the second lowest implied team total on this slate, and how they might limit players in terms of snaps, I wouldn't feel super confident in Devonte Parker this week. So, as is the case every week on this show, for the tight end position, I don't give players that I'm low on, because if a tight end is seeing volume, he's likely going to be usable in some way in fantasy football. Instead, I'm gonna give you some streaming options, and this week I have three of them. The first one is Logan Thomas Surprise, the guy that I've been high on all summer. There's no locked in number two option for Washington and Thomas number one he'll start for them at tight end. Number two he got lots of love out of camp. And number three he's an athletic specimen who's only been playing tight end for a few years. He could have a breakout year this year despite his age, and it could start in Week one against Philly as Washington's likely to see a negative game script which should force them to throw. I also like IRV Smith, another player that I talked up this offseason. I won't reiterate what was said on the fifteen Transactions episode because you can just listen to that for more detail on IRV. But given all that, the fact that he fits the criteria for a breakout tight end, that he could end up being the number two option for Kirk Cousins. I think you could do worse than Irv Smith as a tight end streamer this week, but you probably drafted a decent tight end that you don't need to stream. And then there's Tyler Eifert. This is another one of those cases of who else are they going to throw to? DJ Chark is the only pass catcher for Jacksonville with a for sure high target share, and even though I'm high on Leaviska Chanolt, we know Eiford can be a strong red zone target and in a game where Jacksonville could be trailing a lot, which is bound to happen a lot this year, we could also see decent passing volume. Overall. Again, I doubt you actually have to play any of these tight end streamers, but if you just totally punted the position or you're in a really deep league, you can give them a look and cross your fingers. As good as quarterback is for streaming this week, defense is the complete opposite. It's rough out. There A lot of fantasy managers understand the need to draft defenses with good Week one matchups, which makes the waiver wires super thin. We've got two defenses that you could pick up here in Week one. The first is Tennessee. This game opened up with the Titans as two and a half point underdogs and now fandals sports because of them as one and a half point road favorites with other books showing two and a half points. A lot changed for Denver like the Von Miller injury, and Tennessee is also good. They also just got Jadavion Clowney. Drew Lock did a good job at avoiding sacks last year, but this is really just a play on the fact of what if Drew Lock isn't very good? To go along with a low forty one and a half point over under. You could also look at Detroit if you want. I prefer Tennessee a little bit more because the game environment is better and it could be a defensive struggle. But we know Mitch Trubisky can have bad, bad turnover friendly games, and he was sacked an average of two and a half times per game last year. The Lions are rostered in less than ten percent of Yahoo League, so if you really need some help, you could look to Detroit as well. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and no forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. One more episode this week. It's the Mailbag episode and it will be in your ears tomorrow