Late-Round Perspectives: Addison Hayes

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Addison Hayes is a video manager and content creator at Dynasty League Football and Four for four Football. He's also the creator of the Marker System, a model that helps forecast incoming rookies. He's a dad, he's a nitny lyon, and he claims that stats don't lie people do. These are his late round perspectives.

00:00:28
Speaker 2: Told my wife, I wanted two things done before the draft. It was this update to my studio and our kitchener model. And one of those things got done.

00:00:36
Speaker 1: So I thought you're gonna I thought you're gonna say, like a player like k Tron Allen to a specific team or something like that. You know, you got your your Penn State boy going going somewhere specific.

00:00:45
Speaker 2: I don't know what that specific landing spot would be, Minnesota, Seattle. I mean I would love him as the ultimate era apparent to Baltimore would be fun. But but yeah, that could be fun too. I'm in I'm in on that.

00:00:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we learned.

00:01:01
Speaker 1: So I was on your show, on Addison's show for those of you who missed it on the DLF channel last week or published I think on Sunday.

00:01:09
Speaker 3: Right, So it was like four days ago or so.

00:01:12
Speaker 1: This will be out the morning of the draft that started the draft, so we'll be able to talk the draft.

00:01:16
Speaker 3: You guys will be able to see how.

00:01:17
Speaker 1: Wrong we were hours later after finishing this, essentially, but no, we're doing a little home and home.

00:01:22
Speaker 3: So welcome to Perspectives.

00:01:24
Speaker 2: Man.

00:01:25
Speaker 3: I'm glad to have you.

00:01:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much for having me. I think it's truly an honor to be on this show. And I've been listening to the Late Round podcast for years, years and years. I remember that during COVID, I was working at a packing facility moving boxes and stuff and they let us listen to podcasts, and this was I subscribed to so many podcasts, man, it'd be unbelievable how many you can get through in a forty hour week. But this was on weekly rotation back then and it still is leading up to today.

00:01:54
Speaker 3: So thanks man, I really appreciate that.

00:01:56
Speaker 1: It means a lot real But yeah, I mean, like, we had a really good discussion on your show. So most of the stuff we'll talk that's new on today's but there's gonna be a little bit of overlap because I think the discussion that we had was interesting, and you know, we can carry it over for sure, But before we get into all that I like to do with newer perspective guests who haven't been on the show before.

00:02:14
Speaker 3: I think we've only had like eight or nine returning guests at this point.

00:02:18
Speaker 1: But regardless, like talk to everybody about who you are, what you're doing, how you got into this crazy fantasy football business.

00:02:27
Speaker 2: Sure, yes, So I currently work for DLEF, which was bought out a couple of years ago by our umbrella company, bet Spurts. So they massively influxed you know, cash and resources into our site and other sites like four foot four dot com is our sister's site, and a few others the Bleacher Nation that covers you know, Chicago sports and they have a golf thing and all that kind of stuff. So whenever they got bought out not too long after, I was given the offer to go full time, which has been a phenomenal experience.

00:03:00
Speaker 4: I think I'm heading into year four.

00:03:03
Speaker 2: Of being full time in the fantasy industry, which is an absolute dream job. I've been working for DALF since twenty nineteen after building out my own fantasy football website called f f Statistics.

00:03:15
Speaker 4: The true OG's out there would remember it.

00:03:17
Speaker 2: But I had that site for a little bit and then DLF bought it and I've been working with DLF. Got into YouTube's around twenty twenty, then fully went into it. I remember the first video I specifically made that fully launched me into being more like full into YouTube was the Carson Wentz trade from Philly to Indie.

00:03:38
Speaker 4: It's a weird video to get into, but that was it.

00:03:41
Speaker 2: And then ever since I haven't really looked back on YouTube content. So it's all analytics. It's I have a background in statistics from Penn State, so I'm very analytics and data driven as well. And I think, yeah, I mean I've been in the industry for like ten years and full time for about or four of them, so it's been it's been really really fun and great people.

00:04:03
Speaker 3: Over at DLF.

00:04:05
Speaker 1: Ryan mcdowe and I go way way back, Like we've just been kind of doing stuff in the fantasy space for a while together. You know, I've got to know him through the years and such. But DLF's a great spot to be. But you mentioned that you have the statistics background, and what I think is really cool about what we're going to do and talk about today is that you have your process, because I think this is really important because we see, like with prospect evaluation, for whatever reason, it feels like it's okay for people who analyze film heavily to have differing views because it's more intuitive for someone to understand that, you know, someone is viewing Jordan Tyson this way and someone's viewing Jordan Tyson this way.

00:04:45
Speaker 3: Oh, we just see it a little bit differently.

00:04:47
Speaker 1: But for some reason, I've found that people kind of expect analytical analysis to just be the same, right, But there's so many different ways that we can approach this stuff. And I have this app model that's kind of my foundation for prospecting. But you have a different system. You're the marker system. So can you talk about that, what it entails and how you kind of came up with it.

00:05:08
Speaker 4: Sure?

00:05:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, So my go to kind of phrase for it that the DLF fans will know loud and clear is that it is a series of checkboxes or baselines based on previously successful NFL players what they had coming out of college. So I pulled a sample of a boatload of players, filtered it down to who I deemed to be successful, which varies by position, but generally it's you know, having I think multiple top twenty four seasons for running back, wide receiver, top twelve for quarterback, and tight end, and so from there, I basically I was like, what is the quartiles for all this first, second, third quartile for a lot of these different numbers, kind of ran it to see which ones might have been more meaningful than some of the others, and it basically just came out to, you know, did you hit this checkbox or not. I wanted it to be pretty simple. A lot of people, you know, they have like the models and the multilinear regressions and all that kind of stuff, and blah blah blah, blah blah. I wanted it to be simpler and very easy to explain, but then also easy to understand from the viewer standpoint who maybe doesn't have an analytical background. And I'm just saying that, you know, from at the wide receiver position, these are kind of the baselines that a lot of successful NFL players had coming out of college at these different stats or metrics, and this prospect, now, if you put him up against those same baselines, does he check those boxes or not? And it's kind of in my way of comparing it. It's kind of like hitting on a parlay, like obviously, you know, like your sports better. The more legs you out of the parlay, the harder it is for that to actually happen. And so the more that I have more metrics that I have in here, the harder it is for players to hit on all of them. But the ones that do hit or hit very highly end up doing obviously are graded out really, really well. And that kind of adds to the separation at each of the positions in terms of this player's are really good prospect, this player's a not so good prospect. So that's where all this kind of came from. I started building it out in twenty twenty one that was the running back in the wide receiver positions, iterated it over the course of the next few years, and then last year I added the quarterback and the tight end position. So now I have a full suite for all four that I trust very well, and I've built up a nice little discord following of people that seem to trust it as well.

00:07:41
Speaker 4: So it's doing pretty well.

00:07:43
Speaker 2: And I enjoy talking about it and enjoy, you know, breaking everything down analytically.

00:07:48
Speaker 1: So for each position, are there the same number of markers or does it differ.

00:07:54
Speaker 3: And how many are we talking here? When it comes to like just the sheer number.

00:07:57
Speaker 4: It does differ.

00:07:58
Speaker 2: So the main concept it is that there's kind of like three buckets. So there's the production metrics, which are generally a combination of career and best season metrics. There's athleticism, so the combine in my marker system, it does kind of matter, but I'm just looking for baselines of athleticism, like a four or five to five forty yard dash, which is like a one hundred speed score.

00:08:22
Speaker 4: You have to hit certain.

00:08:23
Speaker 2: Size thresholds as well for each of the position, and then draft capital is the final land of course, most important bucket as well. You get an additional checkbox if you're a first or second round pick. I think I stretched it out to third rounder for tight end because I found that it was pretty flat for the hit rate for just day two as opposed to the other positions. Quarterback is only first round, it's actually top twelve, it's not even the full entire first round. Then there's a draft capital adjustments at the end of that that kind of all feed into the final grade, and that is in essence we're looking for quarterback, it's seventeen markers. Running back is twelve, wide receiver and tight end are fourteen. They're essentially the same, just with tight end being at a lower scale for you know, they're not getting the massive production that wide receivers do in college.

00:09:15
Speaker 4: So those are the markers for the twelve or four positions.

00:09:18
Speaker 1: You couldn't really find, in my opinion, two kind of different ways to approach things when you look at what the ZAP model is doing versus what the because the ZAP model is just very formulaic and it's driven by a handful of numbers that are trying to, you know, project the first three year output for these players, and it's not necessarily approaching it from the standpoint of like, here's this sample of guys, because that's this is the architecture of yours. Where you're looking at, here's this sample of players who have been really successful. Mine's looking at here are all the players that have gone to the combine or who were drafted since twenty eleven.

00:09:52
Speaker 3: What does yours go back to? Like what year I had it going back to.

00:09:57
Speaker 2: It's it's not like a one specific but it's like two and three two thousand and four somewhere in there from my new tool website that I just built out that only goes back to twenty ten to like visualize the data, but I have data.

00:10:11
Speaker 4: Going back to the mid early to mid two thousands.

00:10:14
Speaker 1: Do you find that from a modeling standpoint, a lot of like overfitting issues that you've seen with like other models out there, Like how people kind of view things based on the fact that you know, some of it is just like availability of certain data, right, and so people are looking back to say.

00:10:31
Speaker 3: Twenty nineteen, twenty eighteen, and then like, like, is part of the reason why you're going back so far?

00:10:37
Speaker 1: Is it to get that larger sample to make sure that you're not, you know, overfitting to Pukuna kua.

00:10:42
Speaker 2: Let's say, yeah, yeah, I did have a nice availability of that data. Obviously, being able to have data that goes back that far is I think kind of impressive, because yeah, much a lot of Yeah, yeah, it's definitely not easy. I've spent a lot of time on it, for sure, But I do think that it kind of in a way, like you said, like it combats the the overfitting, and like I think whenever I think there's benefits in only looking at a sample size from the last you know, however many years, single digit years or everything like that. But I also think that there's a lot of issues in there that you know, you don't get the full look of kind of the history of the NFL. And I've had people ask me before should I be kind of changing my my marker baselines for the direction that the NFL is heading into, because right one of them, I know, one of the ones that kind of gets a little bit of drawback is a thirty BMI for running backs, which you know that it's kind of like the Jamiir Gibbs thing. I think I've heard you'd even talk about it too before. It's like Jamiir Gibbs weighed in at one hundred and ninety nine pounds, and I do have a marker that for running backs you have to be two hundred pounds, and so he did not check that box. Did I care at all? In my actual analysis of it, Absolutely not. He graded out is by far the second best running back in that class behind John Robinson, and is phenomenal in my marker system. He just happened to be one hundred nine nine pounds instead of two hundred, But I don't want to shift too far looking at recent data and saying, well, some of these smaller wide receivers are being more successful, some of these smaller running backs are being more successful, or some of these players that are four year players because of NIL, when previously being four year player fifth year player was kind of a death nail sentence, especially at the wide receiver position, and the early declarer was so much more important. I don't want to try to change my markers to get to that, to get to where we're at with the NFL today, because over the past ten to fifteen years and even still today, it is so important to have a very high level of success at college be a prototypically sized player, and I don't think that's going to go away anytime soon. So a smaller sample, I think, is only penalizing you in terms of what you should actually be looking at versus you know, where I'm going back twenty years or more for my sample size.

00:13:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting too, Like I've gotten a lot of the feedback of well what about nil, and you have early declare as part of a like you know that does get signal and that's still part of the model but like in the end, age adjustin production is still important even if players are playing later. In the NFL, you can make the argument maybe that if there are fewer players that are declaring early, that means that there's tougher competitions staying in college. But realistically, realistically, though, when you're talking early declares, even when early declaring was happening pretty frequently, we're talking like ten to fifteen players wide receivers in a given class. That's ten to fifteen wide receivers across the collegiate landscape that's staying in school as and actually it'd be more like ten because there's usually like five or so early declares in these classes, right, So you're really only talking about like ten wide receivers, like a ten wide receiver delta from ten years ago to today, right in terms of how many players are declaring early. And if you're gonna make the competition argument and say, well, this guy's stating, you know, more and more players are staying in college, so therefore this guy's competition looks a little bit different.

00:14:19
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that's a little bit of a stretch.

00:14:21
Speaker 1: Like, in the end, good age adjustin production usually is going to win out, and then there's going to always be edge cases where players are playing with really good competition. You got to kind of sift through that and figure that out, and you know, understand how to weigh that or how not to weigh that. But you know, it's hard for me to sit here and say, like, oh, nil is happening. Therefore, you know, Bryce Lance, So I feel like I've been crapping on on this show and I'm not even meaning to necessarily because I understand the upside case. But like, the dude had one catch across his first three years of his college career, right, Like, you can't art. It's really hard to argue that Bryce Lance's age adjusted production is phenomenal, right, Like, it's a really hard argument to make, and we know his historically that bad age justine production even last year, the year before, the year before in recent memory is not good for a prospect that that part at least is not going to.

00:15:10
Speaker 3: Change, you know, it's it.

00:15:12
Speaker 1: It is a difficult thing to balance though overall, where like there's a changing NFL, things always kind of ebb and flow and there's differences and such. But even like the small running back problem that that has Arisen or the way that people are viewing them. You know, you have Devon a Chan, you have James Cook, you have you know, Keaton Mitchell to a degree, who's gotten more run than a player like that maybe historically. But again, you're still working with a pretty small sample size, Kien Williams, you could throw out there. Still working with a pretty small sample size. And I say this in the guide every year because running back weight I don't have a threshold the way that you do, but like it, it is an input in the model like running, Like the bigger running back is up until a point like I don't care if he's two hundred and fifty pounds or something like that, but you know, if he's like I think, it goes up like two twenty or two twenty five, they get benefited from that. But it's in conjunction with all the other stuff that's going on, right, just like the marker system, it's in conjunction with all these other production inputs. So if Jamior Gibbs doesn't hit that mark doesn't mean that he's bad. It's just one of the inputs of many that you're really looking at, you know, and it just seems like it just goes overstated A lot of times this kind of stuff in the analytical discussion. It's like we're just trying to directionally get to the right place.

00:16:21
Speaker 2: Right, We're trying to I always call it like when you're one of the hardest parts of playing golf that I enjoy playing golf.

00:16:28
Speaker 4: I'm actually this T shirt's actually a golf T shirt. Funny enough, but.

00:16:31
Speaker 2: One of the best ways that people tell you to get better at golf is to find ways to hit the green, like inside a hundred or one hundred and fifty yards with just like webshot, you know. I feel like that's what we try to do analytically, is like can we just land on the green and then try to put our way into you know, getting good scores and hitting on some of these players. I think in a lot of way, what my marker system does really well is, yeah, it can tell you some of the players that like you should take, but most of the time it's just going to tell you you, like, Elike Neighbors graded out as the wide receiver one, you should have drafted Eliite Neighbors. For those of you out there who didn't know you should have drafted elike neighbors you should have drafted by Jean Robinson. You know, there's a bunch of those players that you should you should just draft. You should draft Jeremiah Love this year at the one to one. Yeah, I think with my marker system, yeah shocker. I think what my market system does really well though, is tell you some of the players that you shouldn't take. And I think by crossing off some of the players on your list in you know, the top twelve or top twenty four of your rookie drafts, then that should hopefully point you in the direction of some other players. So, like, I don't have a vast opinion on a lot of guys that are just kind of in that mid round range for rookie drafts, just because I think that they're all kind of similar, and maybe landing spot in draft capital is going to give us a little bit more insight into that. But I could tell you some of the players that I don't like in those ranges, and if you avoid those players, and that points you towards somebody else. Matthew Golden was a perfect example of that.

00:17:59
Speaker 4: Last year.

00:18:00
Speaker 2: I did not want Matthew Golden. So if you just cross Golden off your list. Put you over towards a Tyler Warren, a Colston Loveland, a Luther Burden, you know somebody like that. That would have been a way better usage of your rookie pick. And I think that is what we try to do analytically, is just try to get you into that neighborhood, and ideally we steer.

00:18:22
Speaker 4: You in the right direction more often than not.

00:18:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great, great way to view it and to think about it. Let's talk about some of these players. Both of these models really like Jordan Tyson. I know that from talking to you last week. What are some of the things that the marker system seeing with Tyson?

00:18:38
Speaker 3: Yeah?

00:18:38
Speaker 2: So Tyson, he has a projected final grade of an eighty five out of one hundred on a one hundred point scale, which is pretty incredible. I actually just recorded a video for the dealf YouTube channel talking through some of my misses over the past few years, since twenty seventeen, so through twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three. If you're looking at players that had an eighty five or above final grade, there are I didn't have the exact number, but it was like twenty to thirty players in that sample size, and only five of them failed to have a top twelve season at their position. Now, for quarterbacks and tight ends, you know, you could argue whether top twelve is actually super beneficial, especially for tight ends. But you know the fact that like the biggest misses on their grade wise are Corey Davis Nikhil Harry. You could argue, like Cam Akers was a miss, maybe that's an injury thing.

00:19:34
Speaker 4: JK.

00:19:35
Speaker 2: Dobbins in a similar light. But there's a lot of other players on there. There are tremendous hits throughout that sample. And I only went up to twenty twenty three because I didn't want to. I didn't want to, you know, crap on Marv or Roma Dunes or anybody. Just yeah, I wanted to give them a little bit more time. Tedero McMillan doesn't have a top twelve fantasy season yet, but he's only played one year, so let's give him some time. So Jordan Tyson is about to enter into that range, as you know, as a first round pick, potential top fifteen, maybe even a top ten draft pick. Tonight, I guess if this is releasing on Thursday, Yeah that he so he he is going to enter a very elite set of players over the past decade or so. I mean, he's got the age at draft day, he's going to be twenty one years old. He'll turn twenty two at some point this summer. But even as a four year player, that's pretty impressive. Had the you know, twenty percent breakout age in year one, the thirty percent breakout age in year one as well. Yards for team pass attempt is there. He had a big Fantasy points per game season of over twenty. He's got the size. He didn't test, so I don't have any of the athleticism numbers for him, but i'd imagine that he would hit on the majority of my athleticism markers as well from what I have seen from him on tape, and he just misses. I'm looking for a thirty five percent best market share yard season. He was at thirty four point three, So that's where you know, you probably would like smirkt that a little bit and just be like, that's kind of the negative of my black and white yes or no, that he was at thirty four point three. Didn't hit thirty five, but that is It's still like when you're looking at these numbers, and analyzing all of that, the fact that Jordan Tyson is an eighty five maybe could have been even better if I use some sort of like sliding scale instead of a yes or no checkbox. He's by far the wide receiver one in this class analytically.

00:21:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to say this too, because I'm sure people are listening to this and they've seen me like rail against threshold type relateously you even you even brought it up whenever I went on your show, and you're like, I know you.

00:21:35
Speaker 3: Hate threshold analysis, and I don't.

00:21:38
Speaker 1: I don't, right, I don't hate threshold analysis when it's like this right, where you're looking at like it's it's a numbers game from a quantity game, right, You're looking at all of these different values as opposed to one single value. My problem with the threshold game is typically when people are making or break, not typically when it always when people are making or breaking the way they view a prospect based on one single metric or even two metrics, right where they're like, oh, he doesn't hit in zone yards perroute run and receiving yards per team pass attempt in their best season, so therefore he can't be any good I have issues with that because there are other things that we need to look at age, you know, early declare status. You know, obviously a player who's only played three years in college is at a disadvantage for career statistics because you know, it's similar like Casey Concepcione, if you were to come back to school, how do we know he wouldn't dominate in year four? You know, That's why we adjust for Like we can adjust for age and look at different breakout related metrics. So I do want to throw that out there that, like, as people are listening to this, this isn't like an awkward thing between me and Addison, like we number one, we had the discussion, but number two, Like, I think there's a lot of different ways to approach this stuff, and my threshold beef is more so I mean, let's just be real.

00:22:51
Speaker 3: It's like Twitter bro stuff. You know. It's it's just like the.

00:22:54
Speaker 1: The because I'm guilty of it at times too, Like like, but I'm not fading or targeting players strictly because that thing. I'm doing it to just like get get something out there, to see how people react and get a conversation going, you know about about a certain player, right, But the Jordan Tyson stuff is really to me, I said it all off season.

00:23:14
Speaker 3: I feel like a broken record.

00:23:15
Speaker 1: But I am kind of surprised the way that like keep trade cut or even DraftKings best Ball. You know, I've been doing a lot of early best Ball drafts and such like. There's a there's a like not significant, but there's a decent gap between Tate and Lemon. It might not be as much after the steam that Tyson's gotten over the last week, but there's been a decent gap between tayt and Lemon to Jordan Tyson, and to me analytically, this is the one on one profile, not I mean a wide receiver, not with Jeremiah Love, but this is the best production profile in my opinion, in the class if he I have this in the prospect Guide. But if Titan Tyson does get top twenty capital, which just seems very likely at this point, he has a breakout score of ninety five point one, which is a ninety nine percentile breakout score because he dominated receiving yards for team pass and ten pro rated as a freshman like just age adjusted because he was a young freshman too, which is really Cooe like like you said, he's twenty one, and he's a four year college player, which does not.

00:24:11
Speaker 3: Happen super super frequently.

00:24:13
Speaker 1: So he's entering college at a young age. He dominates at at Colorado, leading that team in receiving, so he kind of starts his breakout score journey.

00:24:21
Speaker 3: You know, it's triggered, and it's pretty good to start.

00:24:24
Speaker 1: And then he has that third season which was just out of control on a pro rated from a pro rated perspective, but top twenty capital with breakout scores ninety and above since twenty eleven, which is when the ZAP model goes back to Mike Evans Sammy Watkins. Okay, it's probably an l. I mean, he's he was still semi productive, you know, like he.

00:24:42
Speaker 4: Had that one season in Buffalo, Man.

00:24:45
Speaker 1: Christ where we were ready, we were ready for something good to happen there. Amari Cooper, which is a comp that people have used for Jordan Tyson, which I think if Jordan Tyson has an Amari Cooper fantasy trajectory of career, we'd be fine.

00:24:58
Speaker 3: With, right like he had a I'd be thrilled, Yeah, exactly.

00:25:01
Speaker 1: Corey Davis, who I think is the scary downside case for Jordan Tyson, but then there's Ceedee Lamb, Jamar Chase, Chris Alave, Jackson.

00:25:08
Speaker 3: Smith and Jigba and Malik Neighbors.

00:25:09
Speaker 1: Like it's just hit after hit after hit with you know, wide receiver is different from running back, where running back, you know, Jeremiah Love's gonna almost definitely be a hit just because of the way that the position kind of structure is structured and how coaches can choose to feed guys, and that's what really drives fantasy football. It's really hard to find a hit rate with buckets, Like you know, a bucket like that that's that much better, you know, Like it's just it's a really really good situation for Tyson to be in analytically. So I'm with you, Jordan Tyson, Wide receiver one. Let's just cross our fingers that this landing spot doesn't suck.

00:25:42
Speaker 3: Please.

00:25:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm really hoping that he goes to Giants.

00:25:46
Speaker 4: I'm in with him on the Giants seat.

00:25:47
Speaker 2: I think it would operate well with Neighbors on the X and then put Tyson in that kind of Wan Dale role. But he's a better Wandale Robinson, so I think that that would be incredible for him. I'll take Kansas City, I'll take New Orleans. Yeah, you know, I'll take washing I don't really think outside of Cleveland that there's like, I'll even take Miami for him.

00:26:04
Speaker 3: On Cleveland would suck.

00:26:05
Speaker 1: I mean, Tennessee is still a possibility, which would be kind of interesting, just because there's not much in his way, you know, in terms of just like yeah, and what if cam Ward is better than what most people expect. I mean, there's just that possibility at least. I guess I'm really just like Cleveland would scare the crap out of me.

00:26:21
Speaker 3: I think I think Miami is.

00:26:23
Speaker 1: Still scary too, even though there's no wide receivers there. You know, he could get fed, but it's still like, you know, I'm thinking like long term two and I don't know, I Malik Willis is a very very big question mark right now, but he is.

00:26:39
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:26:39
Speaker 2: It reminds me of like Jaylen Wattles rookie year though, where he just kind of got fed by Tua.

00:26:44
Speaker 4: I think was a top.

00:26:45
Speaker 2: I think he was a fantasy wide receiver one that year. Yeah, I've heard Harmon say that, you know, if Tyson or Lemon or whoever, goes to Miami, could have sort of like a Drake London start to his year, a Garrett Wilson start to his career, where it's just kind of like, you know, he's in that nine hundred to two thousand yard range, which is good, but is it actually good? And then it takes a few years for the team actually gets better for him to catch up.

00:27:09
Speaker 1: The good news though, is that when I've found at least when wide receivers have this kind of draft capital associated with them, it seems like the dynasty market is going to be more forgiving.

00:27:16
Speaker 3: I mean they've been forgiving with Roma Dunes that more.

00:27:19
Speaker 1: I honestly think I guess A Dunsay had a good start to last year, but it is a little bit surprising to me that he still has the not to say that's right or wrong, it's just surprising to me that he has the.

00:27:31
Speaker 3: Value in the dynasty market still, you know where he is.

00:27:34
Speaker 1: Just because I feel like traditionally maybe like five six, seven years ago, after two years of you know, year one, very if he production and per routerun efficiency, last year was definitely better, and we're seeing the ecosystem he's in, which is I think I think is doing a lot of the work to keep him afloat, but regardless, like feels like dynasty managers used to.

00:27:56
Speaker 3: Be like, nah, I'm done, you know, I'm just I don't I don't want this anymore.

00:27:58
Speaker 1: But the fact that he had that top ten capital, I think is what will at least give these guys like.

00:28:04
Speaker 3: An extra year almost, you know.

00:28:06
Speaker 1: So if Tyson does get that, which it sounds like it's trending in that direction, I think that also helps his dynasty value overall.

00:28:12
Speaker 3: Too.

00:28:13
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:28:13
Speaker 2: I kind of feel that way about Marv though too, Like Marv, Yeah, I think Odoonsay's situation looks better.

00:28:19
Speaker 3: Marv's probably the better example of Yeah.

00:28:21
Speaker 4: Yeah, Marv.

00:28:23
Speaker 2: I mean, Marv was labeled as one of the best wide receiver prospects of all time, so I'm wondering how much of leeway is he's still getting for that. But yeah, I mean, these wide receivers have a lot of insulated value for sure. I mean, I think that's that's gonna be a positive for all three of these guys, because it seems like Carnel Tate's gonna be a top ten pick. Lemon, I don't know if he's top ten he might get there, but I mean he's probably a top fifteen pick, top twelve, and I think all three of these guys are going to have really.

00:28:51
Speaker 4: Really good insulated value.

00:28:52
Speaker 2: It's kind of a similar argument for Mendoza, even if he doesn't start right away or has a little bit of tougher translation, because you know, we don't really view him as like the greatest quarterback prospect coming out. He's got this Kirk Cousins, Jered Goff kind of or about him, but still as like the first overall pick in the NFL draft. He's he's gonna have insulated value. I think any pick in the top five for rookie drafts is here seems pretty safe. It's just kind of maximize for that early ceiling.

00:29:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, like you you'll have an off ramp, you know, I think after year one, if you're like, I really don't know if this dude is it, Like I I think that we had the off ramp for like I mean I had the infamous Room a Dunza trade that I did last year. I got blasted for where I gave up a Dunza for like the one O eight because I figured the one O eight at worst was going to be a Meca Buca, And I thought this was like a reroll situation from a Dunza to Abuka, where we already saw what we got with a Dunza, and you know, I don't want to make too many excuses for players, and so you know, I went that route, and yes, I'm gonna, I'm gonna. I'm happy that that that trade with that that I would be. Yeah, but like, like I do think that, like that's the beauty of investing in these positions like this is that and why we should worry about draft capital is because of consensus. And if the market is worrying about draft capital, we have that insulated value.

00:30:14
Speaker 3: Like you said that you will have an opportunity to.

00:30:17
Speaker 1: Get off unless it's just a complete disaster, you know, which I don't think these wide receivers necessarily show that. But it's a good transition to Carnel Tate because I've had Matt Harmon on, I've had Matt Waldman on. Both of them are very high, not very high, but they like Carnel Tait as the wide receiver one in this class. It seems like a lot of people like Carnel Tait as the wide receiver one in this class. But we had a discussion on your show, and you have some red flags in the marker system with Carnel Tate, So talk about it. I'm really interested to hear this.

00:30:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Carnal Tate grades out currently projected grades, but he's going to be somewhere in the sixties and that ye for reference, you know, I mentioned Jordan Tysons get to be eighty five. Makayle Lemon's probably going to be in the you know, load to mid seventies based on some of his earlier adjusted production and stuff. And Carlo Tate's down in the sixties. Now, I feel like most people from a Dynasty standpoint. Now, obviously I want to say this, he is my wide receiver three, so like he is my wide receiver three. Subjectively, I'm a Penn State fan. I watched him torch my Ninny Lions. I'm in that big ten area as well, so like I understand what car Tate can do. Film wise, I've listened to Harmon, I've listened to Wallman, I've listened to so many different people who have him as their wide receiver one from the film. The numbers scare me though, because in the sixties. That means he's not all that different than you know, Casey and Boston and Omar Cooper.

00:31:45
Speaker 4: He's not in the quote unquote Big three.

00:31:48
Speaker 2: It'd be Tyson than Lemon and then kind of like the second group of four guys with Tate included. If you're going off of my marker system. The thing that scares me a little bit is that we have sort of applied this Ohio State aura to any of these first round wide receivers.

00:32:06
Speaker 4: I mean, it's a pretty good track record.

00:32:07
Speaker 2: You've got a Lave Wilson, JSN, marv Abuka, now we've got Cardinal Tate. We're gonna have Jeremi Smith coming out. I heard about this other kid that they got as a freshman. I think his name is Chris Henry Junior. He's going to be like the twenty twenty nine or twenty thirty wide receiver one, I'm sure, and he's just going to destroy Penn State every single time that he gets a chance to. But like, they've got a tremendous track record for this, and I think that we are overlooking a lot of the issues with Carnel Tate's production profile because he's been playing with some of these other really good wide receivers, and that's worked for the other guys, and so it should just work for Cardinal Tate. But when you compare him and just put his numbers up with all the other guys, it's six total players, Olave Wilson, Jason marv Abuka, Tate, all all of them have a twenty percent breakout age. But the other five did it in year two, Carnel Tate did it in year three. And again they're all playing with each other as well, So Tate's playing with arguably the best wide receiver out of Ohio State. But all of those other guys played in and amongst themselves throughout various years, So Carnal Tate took one extra year to have that twenty percent dominate a rating threshold you look at a best seasons yard for team pass t raw yards per team pass attempt. Four of the five other guys had over three yards per team pass attempt. Abuca did not. He was at two point eight. Carnal Tate is at two point one four market share of yards. All of the other four guys had over thirty two percent of market share. Abuca was at twenty nine point seven carnal Tate is at twenty three point three. You look at raw receiving yards per game, all of them are over fifty seven. Carnal Tate is sub fifty best season of Fantasy points per game. The main four are over twenty three. Abuku is at almost twenty one, Carnal Tate is at seventeen point six. Then you also look I have another series of markers that are the advanced markers for yards per out, run targets, per oute, run first downs, per out run, contested catches, all of that kind of stuff. This to me is my way of seeing do your per route does your per route production match your career or seasonal production. And I found a lot of success in comparing those two numbers, and if there's any mismatches in any one way or another, that could signal either good or bad things. The other five Ohio state wide receivers, out of seventeen advanced markers that I have for wide receivers, all of them were in the double digits. Garrett Wilson was at a ten. JSM was at fifteen, Abuco was at twelve last year. Carnel Tate's at five. So that's also pointing me to he doesn't have the career or seasonal production that the other guys had. He doesn't have the per route production and success that the other guys had. He's the only one of the group that had under two point six career yards per out run, under two and a half yards per out run versus zone under twenty five percent, targets per route run under twenty tweve percent first downs per route run. He's sub five yards after the catch per reception. He's also relatively high overall in terms of the number of targets that he saw that were contested, which could kind of insinuate maybe separation issues or that vertical route tree that Harmon talks about a lot for him as an ex receiver. Marvin Harrison Junior also kind of had that, and we've seen one of the main reasons that people point to as to why Marv hasn't necessarily translated yet is perhaps some of this lack of separational issues that he thrived on in Ohio state because he's tremendous, but when you get to the NFL that doesn't necessarily slide as well. So carnal Tate kind of has that similar issues. Maybe Marv had collegiately in terms of contested catches and target shaff contested catches. So there's just a lot of stuff in here that scares me about Carnal Tate's profile. Analytically. Of course, the film's going to look way better if you're just watching the film and everything like that, and you can make the excuse of, well, he's opposite of Jeremiah Smith. You're gonna throw to Jeremia Smith more so than Carnel Tate, and he's not gonna play with it. Jeremiah Smith in the NFL, supposedly he might be the wide receiver one for his team.

00:36:09
Speaker 4: But I'm wondering if he's.

00:36:12
Speaker 2: Just not going to translate as well as Lemon or Tyson or you know, compared to the other Ohio state wide receivers that came before him, because he doesn't have all of these analytical thresholds.

00:36:23
Speaker 1: I think so the way that the ZA model views things, first off, that was a great breakdown. But the way the ZA model views things is in agreement that he is the worst Ohio state wide receiver to come out over the last five years or what have you. Right, Obviously, the pushback is, well, those guys are all really good. So if he's the worst, he can still be good. But I think what's interesting what you're saying is that like it's not close, right, Like it seems.

00:36:51
Speaker 3: Like am I interpreting that wrong?

00:36:53
Speaker 1: Like you're saying, like no, from what the yeah, from what the Marcus system is saying, is that it's really not a close discussion between even Abuka, who I think would be the consensus, you know, lower than the rest, which I think he's the lowest in mind as well, even though the model wiped him a decent bit, you know, he's still he's still a decent bit lower than a Buka, And that's that's pretty scary overall.

00:37:15
Speaker 3: I mean, I does this point to also.

00:37:17
Speaker 1: The idea that what I've kind of thrown around, this idea that that he could just be better in real football than in fantasy football because he wasn't he wasn't a target getter. And I understand, like going to what you said about Jeremiah Smith, I.

00:37:30
Speaker 3: Get all that.

00:37:31
Speaker 1: It's it's I think part of the problem in this discussion, not the one that you're having, but the way that the masses have it with this is that we say, oh, there's competition, therefore we can kind of wipe out any red flags or question marks we could have about this profile, similar to Jendarium Price right, where it's like, oh, we play with Jeremiah Love, therefore his production profile doesn't actually matter.

00:37:55
Speaker 3: It's like, Okay, let's let's start here.

00:37:57
Speaker 1: Let's say, yes, there's competition problems for like, obviously Jeremiah Smith is elite, and I've actually found that teammate score matters at wide receiver. So sure, I get the argument for that, But how far do you take that?

00:38:11
Speaker 3: Is the question?

00:38:12
Speaker 1: Right, And I think it's a hard thing for anyone to answer. It's certainly a hard thing for someone who's going to be more quantitative to answer to, like directly answer. But like, do you think that that's certainly playing a role in how people are kind of dismissing some of the stuff with Carnel Tate.

00:38:28
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:38:28
Speaker 2: Absolutely. It's the House State track record. It's you know, we know how great Jeremiah Smith is. I mean you just look at his stat lines from the past two years. It's absolutely insane.

00:38:37
Speaker 3: I mean, he's going to break our models for the record.

00:38:39
Speaker 2: He really is. Like it's it's incredible. So Yeah, So there is I think just a lot of excuses being made for Cardinal Tait because of what the other Ohio State players have done and the competition that he I mean, he also played with Abuka as well, so you know, he was for some of his career, he was the wide receiver three on his own team, so kind of make a little bit of an excuse. But you know the fact that even last year, when he has a Heisman candidate quarterback in Julian Saying, and he is the wide receiver two behind Jeremiah Smith, that he's still not even getting close to some of the other thresholds that Abuka had across from Marv, that Jaysn had with Marv or you know, behind a Lave and Garrett Wilson as well. That's really scary to me. Like, and I do agree with you, I think that he could fit more in the bucket of better for real life than for fantasy as kind of like I've kind of used Quentin Johnson's role on the Chargers the past couple of years as kind of an example of just like he's this X guy. He can make some really good catches, he can have some massive games, but you know, depending on the situation and the quarterback play that he also gets teamed up with. You know, it could be really impactful on what he actually is able to produce from a fantasy football standpoint. And if if you're just saying that, you know, he's the wide receiver one in this class because his film looks so great, but the production may not follow. That's not going to be worth the one oh two the one oh three in Dynasty rookie draft because I think it might be you know, a really slow start for him. If he's in the eight to nine hundred yard range at best with maybe five six seven touchdowns, like that's not gonna cut it for fantasy production at.

00:40:22
Speaker 3: All post draft? Do you think that?

00:40:24
Speaker 1: Because because I'll just be hon it like I think post draft, I'll probably have Makaya Lemon, and carnal Tate depending on draft capital, so don't hold me to it, probably in the same tier. But are you are you looking at this and you're saying you will probably have Lemon a tier ahead of carnal Tate.

00:40:40
Speaker 2: I I go back and forth on it. The draft capital is going to be so high for carnal Tate that it's going to be hard for me to take him out of that discussion. And I also i've i've kind of been wanting him to be the Cleveland Browns pick at six.

00:40:58
Speaker 3: It way easier.

00:40:59
Speaker 4: Yeah, I could just wash my hands of it.

00:41:01
Speaker 2: I don't like Carneal tATu as a prospect as much as other people. And then he goes to Cleveland, I don't even gotta worry about it. But like if he went to Washington or New Orleans or Kansas City or anything like that, and like, now now I can tuck myself into the landing spot in the situation, I'm gonna be more scared of that personally, but I think it's gonna be a lot harder to move him out of that kind of second tier. Like if you've got Jeremi Love is a tier of his own, Yeah, then you've got the other three wide receivers, and then Mendoza in super flex leaves that feels like the consensus tier one, tier two. And I'm still there right now. I'm probably still going to be their post strap as well, unless, like if he is the Cleveland Browns pick at six, that might be really what kicks him down.

00:41:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, And then like I think there is a scenario where like I'll have Jordan Tyson in his own tier, like there's at least an outcome here where like he goes really early and then Tate goes to Cleveland and and like there is a gap and there's app score, so I can at least make the quantitative case for it. And then teams look at Makaya Lemon they're like, oh, I don't really want like because I think he's just gonna be a slot and I don't want to invest in that. And then he drops a little bit in the draft further than what we think like that, you know, if those things happened, and Jet jet right right, so like, if those kinds of things happen, I can see things being jumbled a little bit from a tier perspective.

00:42:15
Speaker 3: You know, my stuff likes Tate a little bit more than yours.

00:42:18
Speaker 1: But I do think that it's really important for people to hear kind of the bear case because we've only feels like, oh, I guess I've been giving the bowl case for for Carnel Tate, and it's good to hear the other side of things.

00:42:31
Speaker 3: For sure.

00:42:34
Speaker 1: You talked about that next kind of group of Casey Concepcion Omar Cooper, Denzel Boston. They're kind of being grouped at, you know, being like back half of the first round draft capital. I think there's at least a chance that Denzel Boston doesn't even go in round one, Like it seems like there's like that's that's at least a possibility. Do you have any favorites among that group and what are some of the red flags for these guys?

00:42:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is actually my order for them as well. It's Casey then and Omar Cooper then Denzel Boston at four, five and six for me pre draft.

00:43:05
Speaker 4: Casey definitely grades out the best of them.

00:43:07
Speaker 2: He's at sixty six, whereas Boston would be a sixty one and then Omar Cooper would be like a sixty sixty one. So they're all right there with Carnel tape. But that's at least the final grade order based on the they're all being projected first round picks. So, like you said, like if Boston were to follo out of the first round, he would drop. If Cooper were to followt the first round, he would drop. I think I think Casey feels locked into the first round, so I don't think that that's really a discussion there. I do gravitate towards Casey just because you know, I've continued to listen to Matt Harmon and he's talking about how he loves him so much and that he's like ahead of Jordan Tyson for him. And there are production excuses for him at Texas A and M because the quarterback play was really rough. So and he had that early production as well in college that that I can at least point to that versus you know, Boston, you can make the excuse he played with Odoonsay, Jaalen Polk and Jalen McMillan, So the first couple of years were rough as a wide receiver for Omar Cooper didn't have the early production as well. So if I were just just looking at, you know, straight, which one of these guys produced, and at the earliest, that would be KC as well, So I lean more towards him.

00:44:22
Speaker 4: I think he.

00:44:22
Speaker 2: Would qualify as my favorite of this group. And I think the draft capital is going to be the highest for him as well. It's going to be really interesting to see where he ultimately lands. I've seen so many different landing spots for him as a potential top fifteen pick, as a mid twenties pick, anywhere in between. So it's gonna be really really fun to see where he lands up landing In terms of red flags. We kind of discussed this last week on my video, but it is that career yards per route run versus his own It's just such an interesting stat And if you were to just look at any one stat and just say, I'm avoiding players that fall into this category a sub two point two five career yards per out run versus zone in the first two rounds, I mean we're talking over the past six or seven draft classes. Golden Lagette, Pearsall, Kean Coleman, Ada Mitchell, Jalen Polk, Jonathan Mingo, Tris Marshall, Jalen Reger, Chase Claypool, Denzel Mims, kJ Hamler, Van Jefferson, Nikhil Harry. If you just use that one number to avoid drafting those players, you would have a pretty tremendous hit rate. And all three of these guys fall into that bucket. So I really hate to just use that one number as like a threshold thing. I'm I'm wanting to look at my whole entire modeling, but I would be lying if I told you that it's just not you know, kind of whispering in the back of my head that this is a possibility for all these guys, that they just don't have the collegiate success versus zone through yards per route run. I know Harmon would disagree with me, I think on some of this based on what he'd charged, But the numbers are there that they don't compare very favorably with a lot of other players. So it's it's it's tough for me. I do like case I like Omar Cooper, and then I'm sorry, Omar Cooper doesn't have that sub two point twenty five. Casey and Boston do. So Cooper clears it, so he's solid. Yeah, but Casey and Boston Boston I feel like I'm a little bit scared of as well, just because I don't know, like he's like this this prototype of wide receiver that sometimes gets stuck on the X and that just doesn't really have fantasy production. Yeah, I could see. I think of the three, I think his bust potential is the highest.

00:46:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean right now, I have draft capital delta as a metric that I use to sort of describe what these prospects are, and it's essentially just looking at the score from a draft capital perspective, So like, if they're twentieth overall, they get a score based on what we've seen historically or like a percentile esque type score, and then you know, if they're thirtieth overall, what have you? And I just compare that to their actual ZAP score and if it's really really green, that means that they have a low risk draft capital delta. If it's really really red, that means that they're high risk, because it means that the model likes them less than where they were drafted. Right, the majority of players get neutral. They're just like sure they're being drafted where they should be. And obviously, historically, if there weren't the case, then the model would suck. But historically, low risk players have been better bets versus expectation than high risk players have. Denzel Boston spoiler alert, there's a very real chance he's a high risk player in the ZAP model post draft, very real chance.

00:47:40
Speaker 3: And maybe it's unfair because of what you said.

00:47:42
Speaker 1: You know, the with who he played against at Washington, you know, early on in his career, but his numbers really are not even his career yards. Like that's what I was saying earlier with like zone and man yards per out run and how like, I think that part of it also with the signal that we get with zone, that more players play zone against zone, and so we have a larger sample of those players playing against that type of defense. And naturally, when you have larger samples, you're gonna get more direct and better correlation and predictiveness. Right, So like when it comes to man, you're not getting as much, and so there may be a little bit more of that volatility. But even if you just look at career Denzel Boston's is what two point oh two I think career yards per out run rates something along those lines, and I've got.

00:48:28
Speaker 4: Him a two point oh so.

00:48:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, so it's like it's a it's a very I mean, that's a number that is frightening when you look at literally any wide receiver who gets drafted, but especially you know in the early parts of the draft.

00:48:41
Speaker 3: It's just that it's there's a high bust potential.

00:48:42
Speaker 1: And at least with Casey conceptsy On, I'll go back to the idea that he played three years in college, like Denzel Boston had that extra year to compile those numbers, those career numbers, Casey concepts on at least you could adjust a little bit and say, Okay, would have been better had he stayed in school in other year. You know, with Boston, it's just different because he was he was there for all four So Boston to me a lot of red flags. Omar Cooper, I'm just kind of like whatever, Like I don't have like a strong opinion on him. And then concepty one, I think conceptcy one's pretty good. Like I'm still intrigued by, you know, his overall profile and what he brings to the table. But we'll see, hopefully he gets he gets the draft capital to back it all. Right, So there's this cluster wide receivers that we just talked about. There's that top six. I don't know right now what to do after the top six.

00:49:37
Speaker 3: So you can't like.

00:49:38
Speaker 1: We're we're looking at the NFL Draft. Let's say that those six going round one and then Day two starts. Are there any favorites for you outside of outside of the six that we just talked about.

00:49:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I kind of feel the same way with you, Like they're all just like Chris Bell, zach Arya Branch, Jeremy Bernard, like, all these guys are just kind of like they're there, and some of them you could, you know, find reasons to be in on.

00:50:01
Speaker 4: Some of them you could find reasons to be out on.

00:50:04
Speaker 2: I lean more towards Elijah Surat as kind of like my go to guy, and honestly, if you wanted to make the case that he's the better Indiana wide receiver in this class, I would totally hear that case out. Analytically in my Marketer system, he does not grade out very well. He's got a projected grade of a thirty nine based on third round draft capital, so that could go up if he finds himself into the second round. But where he stands right now is a maybe projected third round pick. It's not all that great. However, if you look at his profile, he suffered I don't know if I've ever seen this before, but from a player who he just suffers so badly from my threshold basis that I have here, because I'm looking at this so I want first or second round draft capital to check that boxer draft capital.

00:50:54
Speaker 4: If he's a round three guy, then he just misses that.

00:50:55
Speaker 2: So that kind of best yards per team pass attempt, I'm looking for two point eight five. He's at two point eight. Best market share of yards, I'm looking for thirty five percent. He's at thirty two and some change. Best Fantasy points per game season, I'm looking for twenty. He's at nineteen point six speed score. So he ran a four or five to three at his pro day. So at his weight of what is he six two ten, So at his weight at four five three, I'm looking for a one hundred speed score that grades out to a ninety nine point seven speed score. So like, there are a handful of these thresholds that he is just so minutely close to actually getting to that if he were to actually hit on all of them, he might be, you know, in that sixties bucket, maybe even closer to a Makay Lemon as well in this wide receiver class. He just it's so close for him between hitting or not hitting on some of those that maybe that's where he could say some of the weakness of the market system comes from. But that's also what is gravitating me towards him, is that his profile analytically, while not like jumping off the page or else, obviously he would have hit those markers, but it is I think it sticks out more than a Zach Orry Branch, Jeremy Bernard A, Chris Bell and Antonio Williams, you know all these other guys that are in this you know, day two kind of range that I lean more towards Elijah Surat as the kind of wide receiver seven of this class. And like I said, if you want to say that he's the best Indiana wide receiver, I definitely think that you could make that argument.

00:52:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, breakout score in the ZAP model.

00:52:37
Speaker 1: I've said it before, but with top one hundred wide receivers has basically the same kind of our score in predictiveness as Draft capital itself. And obviously the two combined slash with all the other stuff makes the ZAP model worthwhile and better than Draft Capital.

00:52:52
Speaker 3: But Elijah Surrat has.

00:52:54
Speaker 1: A breakout score in the seventy third percentile it's fifty one, and Omar Coopers is in the fifty fifth percent at about forty two. So he has a like Omar Cooper has a worse breakout scorer. You know, best season fan adjusted best season Fantasy points goes to Surrat. I mean, the Yards Para run stuff generally will go to Surrat. The one thing that's scared obviously some of that stuff, like the yards bro run stuff, I'm not adjusting. I'm just because it's not part of the model. But you know, obviously he played it like Saint Francis and then he went to James Madison, so he didn't have the same necessarily the same kind of competition slash, you know, opponents and schedule adjusted stuff as Omar Cooper did.

00:53:33
Speaker 3: But the one thing that does scare me a.

00:53:35
Speaker 1: Little bit about Elijah Surrat is that he got comped to Pat Bryant and Michael Thomas in the ZAP model. Which fine, I don't think that that's like horrific, right, but those are two big slots, right, They're guys that benefited from Sean Payton moving them into the slot, or at least that's what we think is gonna happen with Pat Bryant, and he started to do that last year. But Michael Thomas, obviously, you know, that was his game, and I think we're looking at that kind of profile with Surat potentially because his contestion target rate was ninety fifth percentile and then his contested catch rate was ninetieth percentile, so like he was a very much a Fernanda Mendoza security blanket, throw it up, like hopefully he makes a play, and he made those plays, which is why I really want I said this as a bold prediction on the Late Round Fantasy Football show today, So you guys are who are listening, you probably already heard that. But Elijah Surrat going to the Raiders in round three is very possible, like a very realistic landing spot, which to me would be perfect because the Raiders don't really have that true contested catch guy on that team right now. And then obviously you're pairing him with his quarterback from last year in college, right So I'm.

00:54:45
Speaker 3: Intrigued by that.

00:54:45
Speaker 1: I'm intrigued by Surrat because again, I think that the market is fairly efficient right now with who the best wide receivers are, you know, like they're they're ranking them relatively well. Some years, like we'll be sitting here and we're like man like like Luther Burden for me last year, I'm like, this is not a second round profile. I don't really understand.

00:55:02
Speaker 3: Why, you know, like this should be more of a first round profile. But this year. I just don't get that as much like a lot of the Day two projected guys.

00:55:09
Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, they they're I can see the upside case, but I also don't think that their analytical profiles are that special. But so rat is probably the one in the ZAP model as well that at least like analytically looks decent, right compared to like Zachariah Branch or whoever, or even like a German Bernard. But yeah, so it's an interesting call. Are there any like later Day two maybe Day three wide outs you're interested or is it just like.

00:55:34
Speaker 3: Let's just see where these landing spots are.

00:55:37
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:55:38
Speaker 2: The one that that I think sticks out to me a little bit analytically that I haven't really seen his name thrown out there a lot is actually Dion Burks out of Oklahoma, and I'm I'm entirely I knew, I knew.

00:55:52
Speaker 3: You were trolling with that.

00:55:54
Speaker 1: You should run back and look at my face when he was saying that, I'm like, he's he knows what he's doing here. Yeah, Harmon brought up Dean Burks. I had got in a fight with Harmon on the show about him calling out Dean Burks. But then he had Jeremiah on his show on on his Yahoo show, and he brought up Dion Burks, and then Harmon you know, like started saying, well, JJ said that Dean Burks is analytical profile isn't very good. Uh yeah, okay, thank you for not Trum.

00:56:19
Speaker 4: I think I think Alfredo likes him too.

00:56:21
Speaker 2: I think he had a I think he responded to Harmon put that Dean Burks clip up and was like, there's dozens of us, and then I think I'm Afreda responded to it as well.

00:56:29
Speaker 4: I don't know if I don't know if he actually is there.

00:56:31
Speaker 1: Sorry, when you get smart people that are that are in on a player that you're just like, I don't see it at all.

00:56:36
Speaker 3: Uh, It's it's a little bit scary. But I'm not that about.

00:56:41
Speaker 4: No, I'm not either.

00:56:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, there are some interesting kind of you know fringe Day two more likely Day three guys. I do really like Bryce Lance. I know that you it's kind of become your thing to kind of.

00:56:55
Speaker 3: It's become, but I do.

00:56:59
Speaker 2: I I can see his It's the upside case, right, it's the can he'd be the Christian Watson comp is very very similar just because you know, you could look at the school. They're basically the same size, have very similar like top end production at North Dakota State, but it's also North Dakota State. So, but I think whenever you're looking at Bryce Lance versus like, I don't really like Zachary Branch, I don't know what to do with Chris Bell and Jeremy Bernard and Antonio Williams gets some interest as like a maybe a slot kind of Tyler Boyd kind of thing, but like, does that interest me for fantasy football?

00:57:32
Speaker 4: Not really.

00:57:33
Speaker 2: Whereas if Bryce Lance, if you're really going to swing for upside, you know, if he lands with the Chiefs on day two as their kind of X receiver fix or I think Seattle would be a really interesting landing spot, like one of those good situations to where he could plug and play as their outside receiver. I think that would be pretty interesting. So I would take shots on Bryce Lance. And you know, if he's a top I've seen him ranked inside the top ten for people, I've seen him ranked in the back end of the teams, like he's all over the place. I lean more towards having him as a top ten guy. So and that's just purely out of fantasy football intrigue and upside, so I would shout Bryce Lance out. Skyler Bell has an interesting profile as well. I think he kind of became like a very early draft season analytical darling and then I just really haven't heard his name since he had a really good combine. The production is pretty interesting at Yukon, So I think Skyler Bell is a pretty interesting guy as like that more slot only kind of person Ted Hurst Jeff called well, I feel like those are just the go to analytical names. I really wish Eric McAllister wasn't like a horrible human being because stuff, Yeah, it's he seems like Jermaine Burton, but maybe worse to where like analytically he looks pretty phenomenal. He would actually be a candidate for what I've deemed the Maconkey list. That is the list of players who's per route production in far exceeds their seasonal or career production, and that has been like a very very good signal. A La Lab McConkey, and Phukainaku is on that list a few other guys, so he would need fifth round or better draft capital. I don't know if he gets that to actually be onto that list. So but he's just a name. And then I really want to like days on stribbling out of Old Miss. I really want to like him. The analytical profile isn't necessarily there. He bounced all over the place in college. He kind of reminds me a little bit of Jonathan Mingo. Yeah, if you're just kind of helmet scouting Old Miss as well. But I I don't know, like I watch I've been seeing some more highlights of him. I watched a little bit of film on him as well. He just seems like he's kind of got like that dog in him, like he's gonna also be willing to block as well. He's kind of like a fun six to two pound kind of wide receiver that's just better than a slot only guy. I really want to like him. My analytics tell me that I shouldn't really worry too much about him, but he might. He might be an interesting, you know, third or fourth round conversation for me in rookie drafts.

01:00:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was really into like because he's been getting some love from legit sources, like legit people and people who analyze this stuff.

01:00:16
Speaker 3: And then I went back and I looked because like he was.

01:00:18
Speaker 1: I think his projected capital in the pre draft version of the guide was like one hundred and seventy second overall. So you know someone that while you're writing something like that in early March, you know, I'm not going to be that interesting because realistically, like you said, his analytical profile is like like twenty to fortieth percentile stuff across the board, right, Like it's not that strong.

01:00:37
Speaker 3: And the last sentence in.

01:00:39
Speaker 1: His pre draft profile says, unless draft capital surprises in a meaningful way, Stribbling isn't someone that you'll need to prioritize in rookie drafts, but there's a chance of draft capital surprises based on maybe the way that people have been talking about him. So I think that's an important call out to make. All right, let's move on to the running back position, and let's not talk about Jeremiah Love. We know, right, like he's good. Let's talk about some other guys. Your model really likes Jonah Coleman, And one of my bold predictions on the show is that he ends up being the RB two in this class, like from a draft from a draft capital perspective, like there's please, there's at least I think a chance. Not that I think that it's probable. That was that was a bold predictions, hot takey kind of show. But I do think there's a chance because he hasn't do it all profile, he's bigger bodied, he's safe, right, But what is the marker system seeing with Jodah Coleman to make him as your RB two.

01:01:32
Speaker 2: It is seeing that he is a really really good all around player with you know, the the I should say, I was gonna say, like the side he's five to eight, but he's two hundred and twenty pounds. The dude's an actual he's Doug Martin was my initial conpient for him. Yeah, and I've seen that thrown around a lot that you know, he's got that Doug Martin Rehicche Jones Drew kind of thing going on. But I mean, man, he just does so many things really really well. You want a guy that had production and volume in his career, that's Jonah Coleman. You want a guy that has a nose for the end zone and can score a bunch of touchdowns, that's Jonah Coleman. You want a guy that has a little bit of a receiving profile. He had thirty one receptions in his best season, and then also in his best season, had a one point seven yards per route run as well for a running back. That's pretty impressive. As I mentioned, he's got the beefy size. That's a thirty three and a half BMI, which is really really fun number. He didn't test because he was not going to run very well, so I don't have any of the athleticism numbers, but man, I mean, when you're just talking about a player that I just really can feel like get inserted as a solid, you know, workhorse plus type of running back, I think that's Joanah Coleman in this class, and draft capital is going to really determine where he ultimately grades out.

01:02:55
Speaker 4: My projected number for him he's got.

01:02:57
Speaker 2: I've got him in the third round based on Mock Draft ADP, which puts him at a seventy two overall grade, which would be second after draft capitol adjustments in this class. If that happens, Emma Johnson would be really the only other one that could take him over, but they've got him plugged in as a round four pick for mock Draft ADP, so the ADP game will vary between the two in terms of which one ultimately gets the potential RB two nod in my marker system. But you know, if he's a second round pick, he's just so much better. He's closer to an eighty overall grade, which would actually be the fourteenth best running back since twenty twenty, in the same range as like Henderson and Judkins, and better than Harvey and Kalb last year.

01:03:40
Speaker 4: That's if he's a second rounder.

01:03:42
Speaker 2: If he's a fourth rounder, day three pick, you know, he kind of gets thrown into some of the comps that my model gives him are like Ray Davis, Zach Moss, like those kind of players. As a Day three pick, which I still think would be a very interesting player to draft. You might get a Tyler Algiers season out of him if he lands in the right opportunity year one, or like a James Robinson season, Jordan Howard, that kind of player, or he might just be like Kendre Miller two point zero and not really get anything, which I like Andre Miller.

01:04:13
Speaker 4: Tank Bakesby is another name as well.

01:04:16
Speaker 2: Those would be the kind of Day three comps that he gets, which again I still really like to draft that guy.

01:04:21
Speaker 4: It's just the confidence drops significantly.

01:04:25
Speaker 1: I think is pro Like, here's the thing, So the three main production metrics in the ZAM model pro rated reception share, best season of justice yards per team play, best season of justice yards per team pass attempt seventy second percentile, forty ninth and eighty eighth percentile, Like, those are all pretty strong within this class, it's not very good. And then the advanced numbers that you know we get from like a PFF avoided tackles per attempt eighty ninth percentile, explosive run rate seventieth percentile, which is important because he didn't run, and I think he didn't run because he's not very fast, you know, like that's more than likely the reason eighty ninth percentile yards after contact per attempt.

01:05:00
Speaker 3: Like, it's a it's a very interesting profile.

01:05:04
Speaker 1: I agree with you, Like, I think that Coleman is someone who you know, can carry that that workload, can be a do it all back, and a team might fall in love with that. I also think Emmitt Johnson is potentially that kind of player. How do you view Emmitt Johnson versus jendarium price right now?

01:05:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, Emitt Johnson grades out I'll say significantly higher pre draft but then whenever the draft capital conversation gets thrown into there, that's going to really even things out, because it seems like, you know, if you wanted a betting favorite for RB two off the board, it's Jerry and Price. Potentially even I've seen him thrown as the thirty second pick to Seattle. That would be crazy, that would be that would be something. But yeah, Emmitt Johnson. I really like Emma Johnson. I think he also kind of fits that mold as a potential do it all back. I don't know if he gets thrown into that role in the NFL, because he is, you know, five ten, two hundred, so it's like he's kind of got that Chase Brown Kyron Williams sort of thing going on. Blake Korham actually pops up as like a low end comp for him as well.

01:06:10
Speaker 4: But I mean, when you.

01:06:10
Speaker 2: Talk about the production was at an all time high last year at Nebraska, he's got the receiving, he's got pretty much everything that you want. The combine kind of sucked for him, but I thought that the combine was like okay for a player like Emma Johnson. I just think that he's going to be a player that I'm targeting no matter what. If he's a Day two pick goes to a potential landing spot where he could be an immediate starter, I'm going to target him early in my rookie drafts, you know, as like a very early second maybe even like the one to eleven, one twelve in the ultimate landing spot place. But if he's a Day three pick, he's going to be a guy that you know, lands onto my late round target list for running backs, which are you know, rounds four or five running backs who have a two hundred or twenty eight BMI and have seven or more of my markers hit seven out of the twelve running back markers hit. That's a it's been a very I would say the hit rates kind of fifty to fifty. But when you've got a fifty to fifty hit rate on Day three running backs that you can just you know, plug in your rookie drafts and round three or round four, like that's pretty significant. Like Chase Brown was on that list, from Andre Stevenson was on that list, Aaron Jones is on that list. So there's some pretty good names out of there at the top end, and then just really good handcuffs that you want on your roster anyway, That's where Emma Johnson lands now when you compare him to Jenaium Price. The issue with Juderium Price is he doesn't have any of the production metrics because he's behind Jeremiah Love. So it's like all projecting whether or not he can actually does he.

01:07:44
Speaker 3: Hit on any of, like any of the production markers that you have?

01:07:48
Speaker 4: Nope?

01:07:49
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, it would almost be impot like he has.

01:07:52
Speaker 1: He has such an egregious production profile that to the point where I've also said to myself, it's so different than every other Day two running back that has ever hit this appmodel database that I'm almost like, what if he's just an outlier? And he's already an outlier right because he's a Day two pick with this bad production profile.

01:08:12
Speaker 3: Right.

01:08:12
Speaker 2: I've seen people throw Rochean Johnson out as like, well, you know, he could be Rochon again because Rochean didn't have any production behind Bijon. But then Rochean fell to Day three and so it kind of just you know, mixed everything that we thought his upside could have been. Whereas of Jendarium Price, if the NFL is telling us that he's you know, a top fifty overall player in this class, that's pretty significant, especially if he lands with Seattle or Minnesota or you know, one of these teams.

01:08:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, like that, I feel like I have to be in.

01:08:41
Speaker 2: At that point, I get worried because we literally just had Caleb Johnson last year of like, maybe this guy shouldn't have been as.

01:08:51
Speaker 4: Drafted as highly as he was.

01:08:52
Speaker 2: My model really didn't like Caleb Johnson as well as I think a lot of other people, and I should have trusted it more.

01:08:59
Speaker 4: Yeah, but they had.

01:09:00
Speaker 2: Him as whereas he had the running back seven behind Bashall Tuton. Actually, so even though base Lall Tune was a Day three pick two and great, it out better than Caleb because of his production, and Caleb is he didn't have any production then at all of.

01:09:17
Speaker 4: The production you know, in twenty twenty four.

01:09:19
Speaker 2: It's not that I don't think he's similar to Jenerium Price in that regard, or Price is similar to Caleb in terms of you know, he might just be an absolute bust. But I am just worried if we are, if because the NFL is vaulting him too high, If we vault him too high, and now all of a sudden, we think that he's like an actually good or even very good prospect, and then he gets drafted over some other guys like Casey or Omar Cooper or you know, one of the tight ends or anything like that that like are actually good prospects, and that might be bad process in rookie drafts.

01:09:51
Speaker 1: So you're a Penn State guy, and we talked about this on your show. I'm on team Nick Singleton, but you're on team kN Talk to me about why people should like k Tron Allen more than Nick Singleton.

01:10:05
Speaker 4: Uh, yeah, I get it fully for the Nick Singleton.

01:10:09
Speaker 2: I mean, when you're talking about having a running back that's six foot, two hundred and twenty pounds. He didn't test at the combine, but I can tell you he's a four to three type of player right from his film has the receiving production that he had had, the you know, early production that just kind of continued through his four years at Penn State. He was a five star recruit. I thought we were getting the next Saquon Barkley, and but just time and time again over the course of his career, it just it was.

01:10:37
Speaker 4: Just ended up being more and more.

01:10:38
Speaker 2: K Tron Allen that he ended K Tron was the guy that would you know, spark drives when the offense wasn't doing.

01:10:44
Speaker 4: Well, that he would get that chunk play to get something going.

01:10:48
Speaker 2: He would, you know, move the chains when we needed to move the chains the most that you know, he would find the end zone inside of the ten or inside of the five that Nick Singleton didn't do. And it's just stand from a fantasy standpoint that the upside is there with Nick Singleton for the bigger body back, with the receiving profile that he has, it's going to be way easier for him to find fantasy relevance than k Tron Allen. But I think K Tron might just be like the better running back and he might have an easier translation into the NFL that gives him an earlier opportunity to produce. It's probably not going to be tremendous production, it might not even last all that long.

01:11:28
Speaker 4: But I think that if you're.

01:11:30
Speaker 2: Betting on one of these two guys to kind of be more productive for you earlier into their NFL careers, my bet would actually be on k Tron Allen based on his body of work at Penn State than Nick Singleton, whereas I think Singleton obviously has the upside ceiling case and could be a longer producer than k Tron just because of the type of player that he.

01:11:51
Speaker 1: Yes, that's kind of how I view Singleton is, like I think he's really volatile, really high variance because of the Compson I see in the model with him, and because you know, it's like he just didn't give us quite His advanced numbers are pretty bad too, Like they're just not super super strong.

01:12:07
Speaker 3: But but when you match the size.

01:12:11
Speaker 1: The receiving numbers and skill set and the probable speed on speed score, you're like, man, there is a you know, this is a class that lacks like like we talked about Joonah Coleman and Emma Johnson, and to me, those are the two guys that like check the most boxes, that are like safest as as production getters, you know, and in like the more traditional sense that we get from running backs.

01:12:37
Speaker 3: But like that's it in this class.

01:12:39
Speaker 1: And so I'm like, I'm just gonna throw that dart at Nick Singleton and just go for that upside because there's just not that much of that in this class right now.

01:12:46
Speaker 2: Not much going for him he's really like he outside of Jeremiah Love Like, Nick Singleton might be one of, if not the second, best athlete at the running back position in his class. And when you've got the receiving production that he had the like, I get it, most people are probably gonna put Singleton ahead of k Tron. I might even still have Singleton ahead of k Tron if Draft Capital tells me, like, if Singleton finds his way into the late day two and k Tron's like a fifth round pick, well you know that's that's gonna be a little bit rough. But if they're very similar, then I I find myself leaning towards k Tron Allen unless the landing spots are just that regious?

01:13:29
Speaker 3: Are there any other running backs? So we haven't talked about that excite you or we?

01:13:33
Speaker 4: We just like this?

01:13:33
Speaker 3: This class is terrible.

01:13:36
Speaker 4: This this class kind of sucks.

01:13:37
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm I have interest in Adam Randall, the converted wide receiver out of Clemson. He's pretty interesting. I don't mind Roman Hemby as he's the Indiana running back. I know a lot of people kind of went more towards Kaylan Black, but I'm kind of team Roman Hemby. Out of that backfield demon Clayboard is kind of interesting as like this riser, he has pretty solid production over the course of his career. He might be a potential like late day two type of player from some of the news that I've seen coming out of you know, the smoke around Clayborne and stuff like that. So he's he's interesting, I'll say the least to him, and in the same way that like design shribbling is interesting to me at the wide receiver position. Yeah, we talked about Terran Stewart on my show The Dudes.

01:14:24
Speaker 1: Just like.

01:14:26
Speaker 2: His it's so wild that he's just like an absolute bowling ball, kind of similar to Joana Coleman. And then he has like the second highest miss tackles forced rate in my database, behind only Antonio Gibson, ahead of Jenti, ahead of Bejon Robinson, ahead of Javonte Williams. Like I just can't comprehend out human being does that at his size. So Terryan Stewart, I think is a really fun like seventh round pick in the NFL draft.

01:14:50
Speaker 4: I don't even know if he'll be drafted, but he's fine.

01:14:52
Speaker 2: And then I've never mentioned this name before and Dal left, so I'm kind of scared to do it here, but I want to do it before the NFL Draft, just to be like I said his name, what happened to Jade and Ott? This dude had like, yeah, all of the.

01:15:05
Speaker 4: Production in the world, and then like goes to Oklahoma and he just like disappears. I'm like, what is going?

01:15:10
Speaker 2: Like my Marco system likes the early production and the receiving profile that he had, and then it's just like he just disappeared off the face of the earth. I don't even know if he's going to get drafted either, but he's a he's an interesting name.

01:15:25
Speaker 3: Yeah.

01:15:26
Speaker 1: I just added him because he wasn't a Combine invite, right and I only look at Combine invites for the prospect guid and stuff. I just added him this week, and I was messaging the late Round discord saying that I added Kaylen Black and Jade not because those two seem like the most likely who weren't invited to the combine to get drafted. And if they don't get drafted, I'm they're they're deleted from the ZAP model database because I want to keep things clean and consistent. But regardless, Odd graded out a lot better than Kaylen Black did. Kaylen Black is twenty four and a half years old. First off, like there's there's yeah, that's a that's a flag.

01:15:59
Speaker 3: That's a problem. Jade not still twenty three, but he's not as old as as Kylen Black is.

01:16:04
Speaker 1: You know, he's got less size than him, but better receiving profile, which obviously goes a long way within the ZAP model.

01:16:12
Speaker 3: Uh so he looked better.

01:16:14
Speaker 1: The one thing that I've found too is I was going through and updating all the Pro Day forties and when I when I because speed score is an input in the ZAP model at running back and speed score uh sorry, and I'm trying to get the speed scores input it. It's not a huge factor, but it's a factor trying to get all the speed scores updated for you know, the draft happening and getting the post draft prospect guide out and I'm putting them in and I adjust by point oh five for Pro Day, which a lot of people do. You know, you add that because you'll get some some home cooking. Like Emma Johnson, for instance, ran a four five six at the combine I think it was, uh and then he or four five five maybe it was something along those lines, but regardless, something yeah yeah, something like that, uh yeah, four five six, and he ran at his pro day he ran a four four nine, and which is great, but we shouldn't take that phase value and it kind of aligns with that four or five six that we stopped the combine. So but anyway, I was going through all of them, dude, some of these forty times. It's some of the most egregious athleticism testing that I've seen from a draft class. Ever, Like I'm talking des Read, I didn't realize this des Read. Desmen Read at his pro day ran a.

01:17:25
Speaker 3: Four or five five.

01:17:26
Speaker 1: It looks like at one hundred at one hundred and seventy four pounds, so he's smaller than us. His speed score is seventy seven right now when adjusted for pro day. There's a speed score of eighty eight from Le'Veon Moss that I have within the model. There's a speed score of eighty three for Jamari Taylor. Like there's these guys ran so slow at their pro days, and it's kind of frightening. Like I like some of these guys, even like Jamari Taylor. I'm like I can squint and see it and make a case like I can. I can, But now I'm like, like this, this is the equivalent of a four to six eight is what he ran. In some places, I could have maybe gotten putting that at a four to seven zero, but I because there were multiple sources saying different things for pro day time, I just I just gave him a benefit of the doubt because it didn't matter.

01:18:14
Speaker 3: He still had an eighty three speed score. We're just seeing that everywhere in this class. I'm like, it's so night and day from what we had last year.

01:18:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's this class really does kind of suck. Yeah, it's just not that bad. And it sucks too because from my my like dynasty rookie draft strategy has always just been like third and fourth rounds are primarily rookie running backs because I think that they're the easiest that you can translate. You kind of know if you have something or not very early on and you can eat a cup bait or you can keep them if they still look like a solid handcuff or better. And this year is just kind of like, man, you know, some of these wide receivers kind of interest me a little bit more. I really find myself gravitating towards like Cade Club Nick as a potential upside shot at the quarterback position. Right, there's you know, we're gonna talk about the tight ends here soon, but like they're this tight end class isn't half bad.

01:19:05
Speaker 3: It's fun.

01:19:06
Speaker 4: Yeah that there are really.

01:19:07
Speaker 2: Some fun names that you could draft in that later rounds of rookie drafts. And it sucks as I'm like, give me all these running backs. I want all these guys, and there's just nobody. Yeah, even even if like Emma Johnson's like a fourth round pick or something like that, he's gonna be a second round pick in rookie draft.

01:19:22
Speaker 3: Easy.

01:19:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, might even I think Emma Johnson right now pre draft I have met like one twelve and single quarterback just because it's it's just a you know, like you can't I can't get like to some of the wide receivers where I'm like questionable what their draft capital is going to be. So I'm just like, yeah, I'll throw out the guy who I think is the RB two right now, and then a draft capital changes, we can we can adjust. But yeah, it just goes to show that, you know, the top half of this class is pretty strong and then it just there's a pretty legit drop overall I'm talking about, you know, at all positions, there's a pretty real drop that you're gonna that you're gonna hit. You talked about tight end. Let's just get to this really briefly. Uh, Eli Stowers versus Kenyon's. Do you think that Eli Stowers is actually a better prospect than Sadik.

01:20:06
Speaker 4: From a fantasy football standpoint?

01:20:08
Speaker 1: I do.

01:20:09
Speaker 4: This is where.

01:20:11
Speaker 2: You know, we're so we're always talking from a fantasy football standpoint. But whenever I put out a tweet that says that I don't understand why Eli Stowers isn't the consensus tight end one, all of these NFL people start coming at me and then they're like, oh, never mind, you're this is a fantasy football This is why fantasy football people shouldn't get involved in our in our draft analysis and stuff like that. So, like, I think Sadik is a better prospect from an NFL standpoint, He's a better blocker. But if you're talking about fantasy production and the ability to be essentially a wide receiver playing tight end, that's Eli Stowers to me. I mean, like he he's going to grade out in the seventies, maybe even in the he might scratch the eighties if he's actually a first round pick. But everything is there, man, I mean like he's he's going to I named the list the brock Bowers List. I kind of do this with some of the players, the top players that that really fit these lists. So I called it the Bowers List. He is going to be in my marker system one of I think three players that have ten or more regular markers hit, and then all ten of my advanced markers hit for the tight end position. And it is literally him and brock Bowers and then Isaiah Likely. So well, the Isaiah Likely hive is out there for sure. They're like, yes, I knew it. He's phenomenal, but yeah, it's and so like you could look at just ten or more markers hit, like that's a pretty significant list that has like Gronk and Kelsey and I think Tran McBride is on that list, and brock Bowers and Warren and Loveland, Like that's a pretty phenomenal list. There's there's misses for sure, as there should be with most of these things, but the list is pretty tremendous. You look at seven or more advanced markers, which I found to be kind of the threshold for tight ends for pretty quality success. That list is great and stoweres is on both of those, Like, that's a that's a pretty rare thing to happen. He's got everything that you could possibly want. Outside of the one red flag is like, can he actually develop into a blocker to be more of a full time tight end. I've seen people comp him to Dalkin kid that you know, he lives in this fifty to sixty percent snap count range because he's not a blocker, and that might hurt his ceiling of production in the NFL. But I think that if you're a team that is drafting you to thyce hours, ideally hope that you have a plan for him to be more of your slot wide receiver and to kind of be like what Colston Lovelin was last year for the Bears, or you know, TJ. Hawkinson, Evan Ingram, like the highlights that we've seen from their careers.

01:22:50
Speaker 4: That's Eli Stowers to me.

01:22:51
Speaker 2: I think that there's a case for him to be a top eight pick in rookie drafts as a tight end one over Sadik.

01:22:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's really difficult for me.

01:23:00
Speaker 1: The one part that I have found to be interesting from a narrative standpoint within the fantasy space is how people seem to be kind of crapping on Kenyan Sadik's production profile the way they are, which I get to a degree, but you know, like if you already look at yards per out run for instance, he's at a disadvantage.

01:23:19
Speaker 3: It's the case he conceptsy own problem.

01:23:21
Speaker 1: He's at a disadvantage because he's not playing as long as a lot most other tight ends, like Trey McBride, Sam Laporta, they had that extra year. If you look at those two tight ends in particular, they had comparable he had. Kenyan Snek has a better career yards per out run rate in his career through three years obviously through his career, but then Trey McBride had through three years. It's that Trey McBride then played another year and he was able to boost that number up more. And maybe that gives more comfort, you know, from a product like from a an evaluation standpoint and a prospecting standpoint.

01:23:53
Speaker 3: I get all that, but I'm having a hard time, like you do.

01:23:57
Speaker 1: You see Kenyan Sidik as having like a bad analytical profile because I look at his like breakout score, which is based on receiving yards per team pass, attempting to adjust for program strength and for age, it's like seventy fourth, seventy fifth percentile. Like, it's not it's it's certainly not bad. I just think that like Stowers has just a better production profile. And then whenever you put it layer in projected draft capital the model like sidik more but like you know, I will say that Stowers has a better production profile and age justin even though he's a couple of years older than him, Like, it looks better, right, But it's hard for me to say that Sidiq has a bad production profile.

01:24:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think also whenever you consider the fact that, you know, the tight end can kind of be a onesie position for the NFL. And so it's not like you have multiple out there all the time, like wide receivers to where you're competing.

01:24:46
Speaker 3: You're not.

01:24:46
Speaker 4: You're a wide receiver.

01:24:48
Speaker 2: It's easy to get the snaps and they're not just competing for targets, but for a tight end sometimes you're you're competing for snaps to then compete for targets. Yeah, and so like, you know, Sidiq was behind Terrence Ferguson, who was the second round pick last year, and and you know also had Teed Johnson and a few other wide receivers to then compete with for when he did get on the field, you know, prior to twenty twenty five. So you could argue some of that a wave with a little bit of competition. The production profile, like, he doesn't hit on a lot of what I'm looking for, but he's also not that far off as well. Yeah, And so like I think that he's pretty good. His advanced numbers look really well as too. Like I mentioned that, you know, seven of the ten advanced markers for tight ends kind of seems like the baseline for me. He hits on seven, So he's right in there. Obviously, the draft capital is going to be pretty significant for him as well. He's got the blocking ability. My fear is that the I think we've kind of cooled maybe a little bit on it, but like I think the Dynasty community really double counted his combine Yeah, because like imagine watching Kenyon Sadiq film and then saying, yeah, this guy's like not going to break every combine test that he's going to do. Like I mean, I didn't expect around a sub four four, of course, but we shouldn't double.

01:26:03
Speaker 4: Count that stuff.

01:26:04
Speaker 2: And honestly, some of that is a little scary because some of his closest comps in my market system are like noahfanse Oj Howard, Ben Sinnett, Terrence Ferguson popped up a little bit as well. So like some of the stuff that we have seen from previous college tight ends that don't have the greatest production profile but they have all of the athleticism in the world, is that that athleticism doesn't translate as well whenever every other player on the field is nearly as athletic. So I think it's it's one of those things where like you hear that tight end athleticism is just so important, and I think that that's true, it's more important than the other positions. But to say then that it is more important or that production doesn't matter as much for tight end, I take issue with that because I do think the college production matters, and Kenyan Staek doesn't hit on a lot of stuff, even though he hits on you know, a decent it's he's fine. I think he's a fine production profile. Yeah, and he has got the athleticism. I just don't think that he's as good as you like Stowers from a fantasy football perspective.

01:27:11
Speaker 1: Look, I think if someone likes Stowers more than Sidik, I'm not gonna fight it because I think they're like the model is that model won't more than likely have Stowars ahead of Sadik. But I mean, you look at the individual metrics that we're analyzing, and it's easy to see how you could go in that direction. My thing is more so like I feel like if I feel like if it's almost like if Stowers wasn't in this draft class, people would love Kenyan Sadik right but there, but because Stowars is in the class, there's this like natural clickbaity like oh Stowars is good and Sadik is bad, you know, or or like I'm not gonna I don't need you know, this isn't the profile that I want to target.

01:27:48
Speaker 3: But if Stowers wasn't there, Sadik would be.

01:27:50
Speaker 1: Easy the tight end one in this class, you know, like like yep, there wouldn't really be that conversation.

01:27:55
Speaker 3: Are there are there any other tight ends out there that you're interested in?

01:27:59
Speaker 2: I like Max Clayer, He's my tight end three. I think he's just a very solid tight end player.

01:28:04
Speaker 4: I gravi it.

01:28:05
Speaker 2: I kind of start gravitating towards him in the mid to late second round of rookie drafts over some of those weird Day two wide receivers we were talking about. Tanner Koziel is my favorite late round tight end player.

01:28:17
Speaker 4: Uh.

01:28:17
Speaker 2: He hits on a lot of production, just hits on my baselines for athleticism. Like I'm talking like he I'm looking for a four to seven or better forty he ran a four to seven. I'm looking for a one hundred speed score. He's got like one oh one like that. Like he like just hits that athleticism stuff. But the production was pretty great at back to back years a multiple schools the past two years, and I think that he could be you know, he's a name that I haven't even seen mentioned as like a potential even top five guy for people's in profile. Great production, but yeah, the production profile is all there. And if he turns into Jake Ferguson or Dalton Schultz is a third or fourth round rookie pick, like all that that's a w The last name I want to throw out, there is day Kwon Right out of Ole Miss, Like you want to talk about another guy that is uber athletic, kind of plays this f position as like more of a slot than a blocker. The production profile is kind of you know, iffy, but I I find myself he does really well in the advanced stuff as well. He also hits on seven advanced markers, so he he's get thrown into that kind of list.

01:29:24
Speaker 4: We'll see where draft capital ultimately lands up for him. But I think he's an.

01:29:29
Speaker 2: Interesting Like you mentioned, Jeff Caldwell is like an arbitrage play for the wide receiver position, and I think that day Quon Right is a free arbitrage play because he's not even gonna get drafted in your rookie drafts. He's just I think, a name to monitor this weekend for the NFL draft. Yeah, see if he gets drafted at all, and if he does, maybe he's a guy that you pick up and just kind of stash instead of you know, having an open roster spot or rostering your wide receiver ten or something like that.

01:29:59
Speaker 3: Yeah.

01:29:59
Speaker 4: I believe so.

01:30:00
Speaker 1: Brandon Goadula was the one who did all the tight end profiles in the Prospect Guide, and he mentioned one of the one of the lines, and the guide says, from a fantasy football standpoint, he which is right, could be one of the bigger over performers among this year's tight end class in the right situation.

01:30:14
Speaker 3: So is right? Lockstep with you on that one.

01:30:18
Speaker 1: All right, you give me a lot of time. One more question before I let you go. Give me a bold take about this year's draft. That'll probably be wrong in you know what, eight hours by the time people are listening to this.

01:30:32
Speaker 2: Yep, yep, yeah, it's this is really going to get tested tonight Thursday night in Round one. I do think that the big three wide receivers. I think all of them go top ten, and I there's a multitude of landing spots for that to happen everywhere, all three. Like you've got the Giants twice, you've got the Browns of the Commanders, the Saints, the Chiefs. Nobody talks about how the Titans have a need at wide receiver, but they absolutely have a need at wide receiver that maybe if they trade back, you know, that could be very interesting if Jeremiah loves On available for them.

01:31:04
Speaker 4: So I think that all three of them go top ten, Lemon, Tyson, Tate, I do. I also think.

01:31:11
Speaker 2: I think there's the other three wide receivers go in the first round, Casey, Boston and Cooper. And then I think that this twenty twenty six class sets the NFL record for the most wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds, a record that was set in twenty twenty with thirteen. Twenty twenty two tied it, But I think that we can do it this year with fourteen of them. That's there's enough of these interesting names that you and I maybe just don't really like, but we can you know, you can see how an NFL team's going to like this guy in this role. And I think that we get a decent number of wide receivers Thursday and Friday night early on.

01:31:49
Speaker 4: Yeah. I like that call.

01:31:51
Speaker 3: I mean, I really think it's possible.

01:31:52
Speaker 1: The way that the mock draft stuff is looking in the data that I'm looking at, like I did this on the show last week, the Late Round Show, where I looked at projected since twenty sixteen, projected Day one and Day two wide receivers versus actual and NFL mock draft database has been relatively on point they're like minus point four on average difference between projected and actual and right now it's projected to have the tide for the most Day one and Day two picks since twenty sixteen, so like it's very possible that we get a lot of those happening, you know, into round two. So that definitely is a very logical and quantitative approach that you took there with that, with that that bold pick. But man, this was great. I really appreciate the time. I really appreciate the analysis. Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on, all that great stuff.

01:32:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's basically all my work is on the DLF YouTube channel. I'm at amece Hayes Underscore on X and Blue Sky. I did just post the the link to my marker System tool, which is just the markersystem dot com, So you can go and check that out. All of the grades on there right now for twenty twenty six are you projected ADP based on mock draft ADP.

01:33:07
Speaker 4: That will get updated of course after the.

01:33:09
Speaker 2: Weekend, but you can go in and see final grades for any player in any class since twenty ten, as well as a kind of objective lens view of the Dynasty rankings for this class based on those final grades, a class breakdown that's going to tell you that twenty twenty six is the worst class in since twenty ten at least, and a bunch of other really cool things. I've gotten some really good feedback on it, so which I'm very appreciative of. So those are those are the plugs?

01:33:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, it's it's awesome stuff.

01:33:40
Speaker 1: You guys won't hear from me until Tuesday next week because the Draft is happening Thursday.

01:33:46
Speaker 3: This is when this releases.

01:33:48
Speaker 1: I will be working on that Prospect Guide Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Make sure you buy the Prospect Guide now because you can get the pre draft version of it and then when the post draft version comes, So do you save that down you download it, and then the post draft version comes late on Saturday after the NFL Draft is over, and you can save that down to and you can have both versions. So if you do purchase the pre draft version of the guide, you will get the post draft version email to your inbox just hours after the NFL Draft is over.

01:34:17
Speaker 3: So enjoy that, Enjoy the NFL Draft, and as always, thanks for tuning in.