Week 9 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're just doing it for Cynthia's neighbor. I'm Greg Rosenthal here exactly Chris Westling Podcast Studio.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: I hear we're big with your neighbors.

00:00:13
Speaker 3: My neighbor told me, he's like, I listen, why do you guys only pick three. I'm like, well, we pick all the rest of them, we just pick three for the specific show. You do a good job of picking good ones. My picks overall are good, but my picks for this show, yeah.

00:00:26
Speaker 1: Straight up, you're crushing me. That's on game debut. We're on NFL Network every week. Last week I did go three and oh that is my fifth straight winning week.

00:00:35
Speaker 2: So I'm now fifteen and twelve ago.

00:00:37
Speaker 1: You had a bad week, but you're a roll coaster ride.

00:00:41
Speaker 2: There's still time. You gotta still time. You're going to bounce back.

00:00:43
Speaker 1: Yeah yet about thank you to Caleb Williams anyone that had the Bears covering last week and they actually get the touchdown at the end instead of the game winning field goal. I mean that means you're just it's a lot of luck is involved, to say the least, Cynthia.

00:00:58
Speaker 2: So I'll take.

00:00:58
Speaker 3: Lucker skill although I still to know that that defense neither defense wanted to play. Let's just have a forty billion big plays, no big deal.

00:01:05
Speaker 1: Although I did have the Seahawks and the Cardinals and those were like easy ps covers. So I feel like you're going to get there this week?

00:01:12
Speaker 2: Do you want me to? Should we change it up? Change it up?

00:01:14
Speaker 1: Let's change it up. I'm going against my rules. I'm taking the Bucks minus two and a half. I have rules written in pencil, well, and one.

00:01:23
Speaker 2: Of them is they're meant to be broken.

00:01:25
Speaker 1: One of them is don't pick against your own team if at all possible. You know, I got on Danny Heifitz, our friend, where we made picks from the ringer who was with us in Dublin, and he only had one pick and he went against his giants.

00:01:37
Speaker 2: I was like, why you got to pick against your team? And then you know what? He was wrong?

00:01:40
Speaker 1: It was Jackson Dart's full first start. But I don't love a lot of games this week. I really loved the Bunch. Last week, I did not have hot takes. The one I felt the most comfortable about was actually the Bucks. And I know you're you disagree with me on this one. I don't know if this will be one of your three. It's not, but I one of my three. I do disagree with it. I just think that the Patriots offensive line communication in particular, and their offensive line in general, is going to be really tested against Todd Bowles. I think if you're looking for a mismatch in this game, I think the Bucks are a complete team. I don't think the Patriots offensive line is as good. I don't think the Patriots pass defense is as good. And I've just been waiting for them to make a step up in class. And I know they beat the Bills on a night where they won the turnover margin, and maybe that'll happen again. But I think this is a step up in class for them after they've been playing some pretty bad team. The Bucks are rested, coming off of a bye, They're a little healthier. Yeah, I just think I think they're better. Yeah, that's playing well. I don't think Godwin or Bucky Iravin are playing. They seem like they are out. Abuka seems like he is playing for sure.

00:02:45
Speaker 3: Right, But I don't know. My problem is is they're already not rushing the ball. Lowest yard per rush average the Bucks. The Bucks.

00:02:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know who's really good to stop in the run, the Patriots.

00:02:54
Speaker 1: Both of these teams are though, so yeah, I kind of looked at that like, Okay, neither team can run. Who I trust more to pass? When you pick behind the hood underneath the hood. The pass defense for the Patriots not as not as good. They haven't played many quarterbacks as good as Baker Mayfield.

00:03:10
Speaker 3: They're good at the intermediate level, though, I will say that they're good at defending intermediate passes.

00:03:13
Speaker 2: But I don't have a lean in this one.

00:03:15
Speaker 3: Okay, I think that I have the Patriots winning by one point, so stay away in terms of playing that one for me. But I'll you know what, there's there's a few things that I do believe in, Okay, and the Giants' inability to stop outside runs.

00:03:32
Speaker 2: Ooh, that's one of them.

00:03:34
Speaker 3: Until they stop, Until they show me that they can even remotely stop in outside rush.

00:03:40
Speaker 2: I mean, they're at.

00:03:41
Speaker 3: Some like crazy pace, Like every single metric that you get yards per rush, explosives, rushing yards over expected yards after the Carrera, like all of the things that let you run against them, they don't do. They're like, well, stop, we're going to sell out to stop the pass. But you can run against us, like, just run to the outside.

00:03:59
Speaker 2: It's great.

00:03:59
Speaker 3: And so that's why I think that the Chicago Bears win by more than three and a half points because of that outside rushing.

00:04:04
Speaker 2: Love that because I.

00:04:05
Speaker 3: Think that the not because I think that cal WiM's gonna go all lights out. I know the splits are dramatic. You saw great results against crappy defenses and not as great results against better defenses. But I think that the Giants run defense. They have proven they're historically bad.

00:04:21
Speaker 1: There are some numbers that show that they are among the worst running defenses through nine weeks of the last handful of years. Now, I do see it at four and a half. So you're going to have to take that. That's okay, okay, fine by me. I've seen that this week because I was thinking about.

00:04:36
Speaker 2: Going on the other side. I'm not going.

00:04:37
Speaker 1: To go they're not, They're not. It didn't it didn't make my cut.

00:04:40
Speaker 2: I didn't like.

00:04:41
Speaker 1: Many picks this week, and then so I had to write down a few more.

00:04:44
Speaker 2: I wrote down five.

00:04:45
Speaker 1: It was fifth out of my five, okay, and the only reason why I was a reason and I'll use it now to go to my next pick, which is Saints plus five and a half. One of the things I do when I struggle to find a pick that I like, I just look for teams that I'm like, should the Panthers ever be favored by five and a half points, I'm not ready to get there when they're playing another NFL team. I am not there for the twenty twenty five Panthers to be favored five and a half. I'm just like, I'll blindly take those points. And that was kind of what I was thinking with the Bears, too, is like, do I really want to give away four and a half points to any NFL team, no matter what reasoning I could come up with for it. I don't know if I trust the Bears that much, but but that's that game. When it comes to the Panthers, you know, they are a team that's won a couple games against really good teams, and they've won it ugly. This is a different scenario with them as a favorite. They haven't had a great passing game lately. I thought Tyler shuck look okay last week. I don't know, it's more just the blind I'm taking anyone, and obviously the Saints might be the worst team in the NFL, so it doesn't feel great, but I'm taking anyone plus five and a half against the Panthers.

00:05:56
Speaker 3: I had to look three times when I'm like Carolin, enough five and four, I'm like, yo, Carolina, what okay?

00:06:03
Speaker 2: I mean? Good for them? And as a as a Lion.

00:06:06
Speaker 3: Taking myself out of an analysts site, as a Lions fan, I was very glad that the Panthers managed to beat the Packers.

00:06:12
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, you know, if.

00:06:13
Speaker 3: You're gonna drop one to the stupid Vikings, then stupid Lions, at least you didn't get punished by the Packers also winning. It's never good to drop in division, I understand, but at least the Packers didn't win. That's like the saving grace of last week for Lions fans. The fact that it's division matters to me. Now.

00:06:28
Speaker 1: I know it's a new head coach and Kellen Moore, so it's not like there's a history here.

00:06:32
Speaker 2: It's more the style that both teams play.

00:06:35
Speaker 1: Frankly, but especially the Panthers, I think it invites close games. That's what they want, you know, even in their wins that that's what it's looked like, you know, they are only two weeks away from their last home game where they lost forty to nine, you know what I mean when they played. It's just like, so five and a half points just seems like a lot to me that the Saints have not shown much to believe in.

00:06:58
Speaker 2: They just traded Orhi Shaheed.

00:07:01
Speaker 1: There are definitely reasons to believe that they're not going to win this game, but can they play better this week?

00:07:07
Speaker 2: Close and just keep it close on principle.

00:07:10
Speaker 1: When I look at the Panthers too, I also see offensive line injuries. Taylor Moten, the right tackle from Ochaemis, Michigan, might be gone from Michigan. They're injured on the interior. That's where you're from as well.

00:07:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, right, there's like three of us that have anything to do with NFL, so it's a tiny town. Who is the third, Well, he's actually the tight end coach okay for the Jags. It's great. His name is John van Dam. He went to Michigan State. It's John van Dam, John Claude van Dam, but just John van Dam with Liam Cohne.

00:07:40
Speaker 1: Now, I don't know how much money that guy makes, but I'm gonna go ahead and say it. That Taylor Moten, who's had a big second year contract, he's the he's the richest one from what town is it called okamis Okamish And then it's you versus Van Dam for number two. So Dan Dam beats me. You've got some, oh please, you got some. You got some tracks with teams.

00:08:04
Speaker 3: I made some good I made some good investments in crypto a long time ago, and now I touched it. So on paper, maybe I have like ten dollars and you know whatever.

00:08:11
Speaker 1: Actually I did just look for an update and Taylor Mowen is practicing, so that's good. That's a good sign. Chandler Zavala is out in this game. He's one of their interior alignment that might be up. But anyways, I'm going I'm going Saints plus five and a half are your second.

00:08:25
Speaker 2: Pick, listen. I know, like I shouldn't.

00:08:30
Speaker 3: I don't like picking against the Chargers, I don't, but I'm going to do it here because giving three points up at home to the Steelers when you don't have Joe Alt and I don't know what's going on with your running backs, who's healthy, who's going to play? I just not Hampton, not Hampton. That's what I'm saying. So it just feels like this that's too big of a number. I know it's only three, so it's not a big number. But I saw the Steelers get their defense going. I know Aaron Rodgers is good against zone, and you know who likes to play a lot of zone is the Archers. Even though they've had good results with zone, Aaron Rodgers kind of picking apart their zone might be a little different than just like regular old quarterback picking apart their zone. So I think that's too many. I actually think that the Steelers win this one outright. I think the upset happens. I'm just curious. I'm not gonna be here, so you're gonna have to tell me what the parking number is, because you know, I track how much everyone's okay just for parking.

00:09:20
Speaker 1: I'll get here too early because that's a Sunday night game and we'll just be in the building.

00:09:24
Speaker 2: But I'll look. I'll look la because I think for Steelers it could be a lot.

00:09:28
Speaker 3: I would if i'm if I'm the people who have the parking. It's basically their yards outside of the stadium, like on the way I'm jacking that price up because Steelers fans willingness to pay is high.

00:09:39
Speaker 1: I've been there for a Steelers Chargers primetime game here. I don't remember if it was Thursday night. It wasn't Sunday night. It was either their Monday night a couple of years ago. And yeah, the Steelers fans, they showed.

00:09:50
Speaker 2: Up at eighty bucks. I'm guessing eighty.

00:09:52
Speaker 3: It's crazy. That's an insane number. Like for some other ones it's forty.

00:09:55
Speaker 1: Well, Dodger Stadium when I went for the NLCS was sixty, I believe. And then for the World Series, and it's this just team. You know, they're the ones getting the money. It went up to like eighty or ninety. It's just like five days later, they just jacked it up a couple spots. It's like, give me a break. I love this pick. I'm with you. I think the Steelers went straight up. Me and you are on the same side. Our friend Patrick Claibon is not on our side. But I have them winning straight up. A lot of reasons why you went into a lot of it. The one I would just would add is the Chargers defense, quietly one of the worst run defenses in the league. It's almost like they're playing that Bendo break defense.

00:10:30
Speaker 2: That's their style.

00:10:31
Speaker 1: But you get Pittsburgh and that those heavy personnel packages and the extra offensive linemen and Darnel Washington and Jalen Warren. I'm the leader of the Jalen Warren for the Pro Bowl campaign. I mean all pros too much, but Jalen Warren to me has been playing fantastic and I think he could have a big game running against the Chargers. So Joel I thought would have moved the line more.

00:10:54
Speaker 2: Than he did. Maybe it was sort of baked in. I don't know. I don't know. I was trying to look at that too.

00:10:59
Speaker 3: His off splits, and I know some of it is almost a ten percentage point different in pressure percentage.

00:11:05
Speaker 2: It makes it.

00:11:06
Speaker 1: In the running game. I think it really impacts him too. It hurts me. I'm picking against these teams. I like the Chargers.

00:11:13
Speaker 3: Sure, I like all teams, but okay, so I don't that's not true, but I like both of these teams.

00:11:18
Speaker 1: I'm pivoting for my third pick. So far, I have the Bucks minus two and a half Saints plus five.

00:11:24
Speaker 2: Okay.

00:11:26
Speaker 1: Earlier today I wrote down the Cardinals getting stick in it. Oh okay, and I'm changing that. That's gonna be my extra game.

00:11:34
Speaker 2: Okay. I was gonna say, you don't like that, because I like that.

00:11:37
Speaker 1: I do like it, but I lost a little bit of my courage. Why because, Okay, Max Melton, I mean that's only like a cornerback, but he's a good one.

00:11:46
Speaker 2: He has a concussion.

00:11:48
Speaker 1: I saw Will Johnson is a little banged up, another cornerback, but it sounds like he was limited.

00:11:52
Speaker 2: He might so I was like two cornerbacks.

00:11:55
Speaker 1: I do think the Seahawks are the best team, maybe in the entire NFL, even though I think the Cardinals, who have not lost by more than four points all season, will keep it close, and Seattle's coming off. It is a short week, so if I can only pick three games, I'm gonna just go with my gut.

00:12:09
Speaker 2: That's what I do. I'm not about the numbers.

00:12:11
Speaker 1: I'm just feeling it, and I just even though the forty nine ers always play the Rams closed, I think the Rams are gonna blow them out this week. And I know the numbers will probably disagree with me here. I think they're minus four and a half. This matchups has always been tough for Sean McVay in general, but at some point all these injuries for the forty nine ers are.

00:12:31
Speaker 2: Gonna catch up with them too.

00:12:33
Speaker 1: He's gone to bright Stuff might be back for this game, but Matthew Stafford with time, is the best quarterback in the league right now.

00:12:41
Speaker 3: And this is a bad pass defense. That's the amount of pressure there. It's like something crazy, like it's.

00:12:49
Speaker 1: So bad, and then you look, Okay, the forty nine Ers started out three and oh, but if we're just isolating, since the injuries, you know, really came in there, they're two and three. Since then, the losses are all by more than four, and a couple of them are by double digits to And I know they beat the Rams, but if anything, that kind of makes me want to pick the Rams more in that if you're the inferior team and you're in the division, you're happy you got the split. You're not gonna sweep them. I don't think they're gonna sweep them. So I'm going Rams minus four and a half to just really announce themselves as a real deal Super Bowl contenders.

00:13:20
Speaker 2: If people don't already see him that way.

00:13:21
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Matthew Stafford is right up there for MVP consentration, So I think they've already announced that. I you know, my gut, let me just see my math does have a closer game.

00:13:31
Speaker 2: Seah, I knew it, the Math. It does make sense.

00:13:34
Speaker 3: Because you know what, could they do weird stuff against each other, Like when you look at Christian McCaffrey's use, Like if you look at how when he's been sent in motion, he's got like a motion share rate of like thirty five percent, it's the most in the league. But then when he plays, when he plays against the Rams, they trick you. He doesn't get used in motion. They target him twice before. Like point being is they have specific game plans for each other and know each other so well.

00:13:56
Speaker 2: It's like fighting with your sibling. You really know how.

00:13:59
Speaker 1: To get under their It's definitely big brother, little brother, and totally most part, Kyle has gotten the better of Sean McVay, with some big exceptions, the biggest one being the NFC Championship team, the biggest game they ever played.

00:14:10
Speaker 2: That was probably a big one. That was a big one last year.

00:14:12
Speaker 1: Also, the Rams got the better of them, but they were a better team last year, so I'm feeling okay about it.

00:14:18
Speaker 3: I have Christian McCaffrey averages one hundred and fifty scrimmage yards per game against them.

00:14:22
Speaker 2: Look, your neighbor wanted extra picks.

00:14:23
Speaker 1: I just gave her the next year one, which is also Arizona plus six and a half. But that is not going to be the official one, okay. And the reason we don't do them all, I don't know, just leave them want anymore? Who knows, Maybe God willing, if we're back for twenty twenty six, maybe we'll expand it to five picks or something.

00:14:37
Speaker 2: We love it. I love it.

00:14:38
Speaker 3: Okay, your last last one. They're the away team. It's happening in Minnesota. But I think Baltimore goes in and wins by more than four points.

00:14:48
Speaker 2: I'm glad you talked about this one. I want to hear.

00:14:51
Speaker 1: Why do you think that JJ McCarthy first start is not enough data basically to feel confident that he'll be good, the offense will be good against this Ravens defense.

00:15:03
Speaker 3: I just think that Lamar Jackson is in his bag. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry Lamar Jackson, Mark Adrian like I just think he's in his bag. And I don't think this defense, even with Andrew Van Ginkle back, who is a difference maker, I don't think that they like, sure, okay, you can, you can get some pressure on Jared Goff, who's not a mobile quarterback, But what happens when that guy runs and smokes you?

00:15:29
Speaker 2: I'm asking, I don't know like that.

00:15:31
Speaker 3: To me, it's just there's too many areas where Lamar Jackson is being the best quarterback in football that I don't think this defense has.

00:15:38
Speaker 2: They can't handle all that smoke.

00:15:39
Speaker 3: It's it's not as I'm not an anti JJ McCarthy pick, it's not any of that stuff. It's really just about like by the way the splits on JJ McCarthy from last game, if he got the ball out quickly under two point five seconds, it went well. If he held onto the ball longer, it didn't go as well. So will they be able to get him with quick pressures or staying coverage long enough to make him uncomfortable? Well, sure that's going to be a problem that they'll have to figure out. They got Draymond Jones, maybe they'd get a little bit more you know, pressury.

00:16:06
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't care to me.

00:16:07
Speaker 3: This one is all about Lamar Jackson, greater than, greater than, greater than anything. You're going to bring him against the Vikings. I just it has nothing to do with their offense.

00:16:16
Speaker 1: And it's one way to just scramble your boy Bflow, the defensive coordinator of the Vikings. The one way to solve all the craziness that they're doing is just like it, run it down their.

00:16:25
Speaker 3: Throats, run it down their darn throat. And then, by the way, run it down their throats, not just with Lamar, but like they just it's too multiple.

00:16:32
Speaker 1: Well, the reason I'm even feeling better about this for you is did you hear about JJ McCarthy's alter ego?

00:16:40
Speaker 2: Oh?

00:16:40
Speaker 1: No, that's something he talked about since we last taped an NFL Daily.

00:16:45
Speaker 2: He has an alter ego. What's the name. It's called nine, a reference to his jersey number. It is the.

00:16:51
Speaker 1: Byproduct of the anger that built up after missing all these games. And he said he was ready to explode with that anger, but he chose to harness it instead instead of letting it get self destructive. And this is here here, here's what he said. I kind of love feeding that wolf because my entire life at Michigan there was a smiley face on my hand and if you smile, you have fun, you're going to play better, which is true. But I think there's a lot of power that comes from built up anger that you can transmute into your performance. And when I heard all that and he's like growling in the locker room and he's an alter ego, I'm like Raven's by twenty five.

00:17:29
Speaker 2: This is the NFL Son.

00:17:31
Speaker 1: We got a two time MVP on the other side, and you're trying to dress up as a wolf.

00:17:36
Speaker 2: I don't know.

00:17:36
Speaker 3: Sorry, So here's number one. I am holding it in right now because I don't want to see meat.

00:17:46
Speaker 2: What are you talking about.

00:17:47
Speaker 1: He's a kid, He's a kid. But it's very it's you know what it's giving. It's giving Russell Wilson like memory when he was suddenly missed. They're unlimited. Remember he just decided to become like a different guy or whatever.

00:18:04
Speaker 2: Remember that. I remember that made fun.

00:18:06
Speaker 3: I too had an alter you go in college when that would come out at night, she would run home from the bars. Yeah, she was unstopped with some drinks. Yes, but I didn't choose these things. It happened.

00:18:18
Speaker 2: I was I was a run home from the bar.

00:18:19
Speaker 1: Type of personally college because I was always like and it's New Orleans, I was in Boston.

00:18:25
Speaker 2: I'm just saying there was.

00:18:27
Speaker 1: There was a lot of my friends who were held up or it happened, and you know in our college, and so you're you're like drunk, you can't be dry. You know, you're like a mile away from home, and you're just like, I don't want to wait for a ride or whatever. There were ubers then, and so it's just like, all right, that's what it is. I'm just gonna shog. I don't want to walk by myself in the dark for a mile.

00:18:49
Speaker 2: Not the best idea. I'm just going to go run home.

00:18:51
Speaker 3: So in Cleveland Circle in Boston, near Boston College, there's a park that was called Mariann's was very cool at the time.

00:18:56
Speaker 2: It has since changed a lot, but it was.

00:18:59
Speaker 3: There was a reservoir and then where we lived on campus, so you could wait for this bus, who's waiting for the bus, or you could just run around the reservoir.

00:19:08
Speaker 1: Me And you never would have known we had that in Commic because they don't know anyone else that did that regularly. We're gonna do great for our picks this week six and oh baby, I can feel it. The next time you will hear from us in the feed, Yes, it'll be the week ten recap. We'll be talking about the game in Germany, which Cynthia is leaving for somehow. After taping on Thursday nights.

00:19:31
Speaker 3: Ways, does that you dance when you're on your way to Berlin?

00:19:33
Speaker 1: Absolutely crazy that you're arriving that call me back on Monday.

00:19:37
Speaker 2: Don't worry back on Monday, so we will see you on Sunday night