546: Week 2 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher.

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Speaker 2: Reson What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachariason, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com, in this episode five hundred and forty six of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I try not to hide from bad takes. I've got a process and I feel good about that process. That process has led me to really good results across the years and years that I've been analyzing fake football.

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Speaker 2: I want to start this.

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Speaker 1: Sleeper Show each week with a recap of last week's picks, and let's get it out of the way. Last week Sleeper Show was not great. I think the process was there for some players like Boston Scott or Paris Campbell. I just got the players wrong in those offenses. And I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that it was week one. We just don't know exactly how teams are feeling about players. Elijah Moore was probably the most disappointing miss though. I really thought that he had a chance to blow up last week, and he walked away with fewer receiving yards than he had entering the game. Sam Darwin was at least a good streaming option, Tyson Williams did his thing, and James White was fine in PPR formats. Not everything was terrible, and we should expect a lot of misses given I'm talking about super low tiered players, but I expect way better than last week's results on this show. I'll be the first to admit that, and the results should get better because we'll get more and more information on these players. The feedback I received for the new show format was almost entirely positive. That was great to hear, so we're gonna stick with this sleeper show as opposed to going back to the matchup show. I made some changes based on feedback this week, and I'll talk about that as I get to each section today. Before getting to this week's sleepers, though, I want to let you know that Fandal is giving you the opportunity to get in on the NFL action each week with the NFL Sunday Million. This week, the prize pool whopping three million dollars. First place is taking home one million dollars. All you have to do is head over to fandle click on the NFL Sunday Million Contest. Fill out your lineup and enjoy eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the Fandle LAP for more details. So last week I introduced three buckets for these sleepers. Players rostered in twenty one to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, players rostered in ten to twenty percent, and then players rostered in under ten percent.

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Speaker 2: Seeing how things are shaping up, I'm shifting.

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Speaker 1: These parameters just slightly to twenty five to fifty percent, eleven to twenty four percent, and under ten percent. I just realized that otherwise we'd basically never have running backs in that middle or bottom tier. I'm just giving myself more options. I know it's not really a meaningful change, but I know someone would get upset at these recommendations based on these arbitrary parameters. Someone would find a way to get mad. So I'm making sure that I'm clearing the air from the start. Anyway, Let's kick things off by talking about five players that I like this week who are rostered in twenty five to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. The first is Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, that Ben Roethlisberger. The guy who looks super dusty in Week one against the Bills. This game sets up really well for Pittsburgh in general. They're at home and they're facing a beatable defense in the Raiders, a team that's coming off an emotional win on Monday night. So it's a short week for them, and they're traveling east for an early start game. Fandels Sportsbook has the Steelers as five and a half point favorites. That gives them an implied total of over twenty six points. If Pittsburgh posts three or four touchdowns, chances are Roethlisberger's going to have something to do with that. And for the record, the secondary numbers weren't atrocious in Week one for Big Ben. He still pushed the ball downfield in an above average rate. Over eighteen percent of his passes went fifteen plus air yards, and he completed half.

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Speaker 2: Of those throws.

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Speaker 1: I think he's a relatively safe option this week if you're looking for a streaming quarterback. Now, if you'd rather not stream Roethlisberger, you can go with Mac Jones. He's rostered in twenty five percent of yah league, so he makes the cut here, and he's in a good spot against the Jets New York was not great in Week one. They allowed Sam Darnald to finish the day with a forty seven percent success rate according to number Fire's expected points model. That's not like spectacular, but it's also Sam Darnald that we're talking about. Mac Jones actually had a fifty five percent success rate in Week one in a tougher matchup this week against the Jets, New England's implied total is north of twenty four. I do wish that in Week one Mac was a little bit more aggressive throwing the ball in intermediate in deep length. His fifteen plus air yard rate was only ten point three percent last week. That was one of the lower marks in the league. But he should be fine if you really need a streamer in a deeper format. I'll get to my favorite quarterback streamer in a bit, but first let's talk about Mac Jones's running back, James White. White really should be rostered in more leagues, and he's rostered in He's available in sixty two percent of Yahoo leagues. He's not sexy, he's not gonna give you a super high ceiling, but he's absolutely usable.

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Speaker 2: In PPR formats, he.

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Speaker 1: Had an eighteen point two four percent target share in week one, and while we shouldn't expect him to see a lot of work on the ground, you do have to at least wonder how the Patriots are gonna divvy up that ground game workload this week, because both Romandre Stevenson and Damian Harris fumbled last week, So once again, why does a flex play in PPR leagues? Sterling Shepherd didn't play this week as well. He was someone I mentioned on the fifteen transaction episode earlier this week, even though he wasn't a transaction, I just wanted to throw him out there because he was still a good ad. I just wanted to give people players who were rostered in fewer leagues. But Sheppard is under that fifty percent rostered mark after coming off a game where he saw a quarter of the Giants targets. I do worry a little bit about the kind of pressure that Washington might be able to generate in this game. Week one wasn't great for the Washington defense, but we know that they can get to the quarterback. Fortunately, though Sterling Shepard is a lower average up of target wide receiver compared to his counterparts. In Week one, his a dot was under ten, Darius Slayton's was twelve, and Kenny Galladays was over sixteen, So he get peppered once again, with Washington likely being able to get to Daniel Jones. And then the last player in this tier is one that I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, and that's Jared Cook. He had over seventeen percent of the Chargers targets in week one, and he ran just ten fewer routes than Mike Williams and nine fewer routes in Keenan Allen. Meanwhile, he more than doubled Donald Parham's routes run number. Now they get Dallas. Not only was Dallas gashed by Rob Gronkowski last week, but this game could just shoot out. In general, there's a fifty five and a half point over under and there's just a three point spread. The Chargers could score points, and that's exactly the kind of offense you want to tie your tight.

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Speaker 2: End stream or two.

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Speaker 1: But like I mentioned earlier this week, I think Cook has seasoned long upside two, not just this week. Let's not move on to players who are rostered in ten to twenty five percent of leagues over on Yahoo and Let's start with my favorite quarterback streamer this week, Teddy Bridgewater. Just to reiterate a stat that I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, my buddy rich Reebar at Sharp Football Analysis mentioned on Twitter this week that Jacksonville's now allowed twenty four or more points in sixteen straight games. Denver has an implied team total above that, which makes sense. The Jags were just beat big time by Tyrod Taylor. He had the third highest passing yard total of his career last week. Even without Jerry Judy in that lineup, Teddy Bridgewater has good options to throw to. I like him a lot in this game against Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: It's hard not to.

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Speaker 1: You can look to Bridgewater's pass catchers in this matchup against Jacksonville too. Tim Patrick is the safer option off the waiver wire between him and kJ Hamler, But Hamdler's him play this week too. I'm just grouping him in this section because of Patrick, but Handler's rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. But Patrick and Handler had the same number of targets last week. Patrick just played twenty two more snaps and he ran seven more routes. Handler's a big play threat waiting to happen, though, and he's gonna at least play in three wide receiver sets. So both guys worked this week off the waiverron A plus matchup. I briefly touched on Adam Troutman on the fifteen Transactions episode, and if you need a tight end streamer, I think he works only. Darren Waller had a higher Week one target share at tight end than Adam Troutman did.

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Speaker 2: And even though.

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Speaker 1: Juwan Johnson was used close to the end zone last week, we have to always look at the usage peripherals. Troutman ran twice as many routes and he had twice as many targets as Johnson. In a world where the Saints pass more, which could happen Sace, we can't assume they see the same gamescript week in and week out. Troutman could then see a lot of volume. That's why he's a reasonable streamer. And then lastly in this tier is Kenneth Gainwell again, someone I talked about earlier this week, which is bound to happen given I'm talking about waiver wire targets, but I'm low key a little bit worried about what happens with Miles Sanders if and when the Eagles faced a negative gamescript. We saw Gamemo run just seven fewer routes and Sanders in week one, and he got two minute work and he talied a nine point four percent target share. Now the Eagles are three and a half point underdogs at home. It's unlikely we see them beat San Francisco like they did Atlanta. That means that we could see more gain well on the field than expected. There actually is one more player in this tier, and that's Marquez Valdez Scantling. I love MVS as a sleeper this week. He had a twenty two percent target share in Green Bay's loss last week, and he saw a seventeen yard average at the target. The Packers just couldn't get anything done offensively, but they should be able to get it done this week against Detroit. It's got obvious bounce back game potential for Green Bay and they've got a thirty point implied team total. I won a piece of that offense, and I think that you can get that with Marquez Valdez Scantling. I already gave you one player rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues who I like this week in kJ Hamler. But let's look at a few more. How about Anthony Schwartz. He doesn't have a scary matchup against the Texans, and Odell Beckham has already been ruled out for week two. In Week one, Shorts saw eighteen and a half percent of Cleveland's targets despite playing the third most snaps at wide receiver on that team. Now, that snap's played thing is kind of an issue. Ideally he'd be playing ahead of Donovan People's Jones. People's Jones played sixteen more snaps. But it was also Schwartz's first game as a pro, and that utilization rder targets per snap rate that was the best on Cleveland in Week one.

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Speaker 2: And he's a big play threat too.

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Speaker 1: He's capable of paying off on just one play. So he's an interesting deep option this week if you'd rather play it safe and go in the other direction. And I hate that I'm even saying this right now, Hunter Renfro has a good matchup.

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Speaker 2: Renfro usually plays in the slot.

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Speaker 1: He played sixty eight percent of his snaps from there in Week one against Baltimore. Now, Pittsburgh's defense is good, but the scheme allows for a lot of looks to go to that area of the field. In fact, in Week one only the Bears allowed a higher percentage of targets to go to the slot than Pittsburgh did, and last season Pittsburgh ranked second in the league within that category. If the Raiders see a negative game script, they could throw more. If those throws go to the same place Pittsburgh's opponents typically attack, then Renfro could be a high floor option in PPR formats. Now, lastly, in this tier, let's talk about the Cowboys. This is an offense that we want pieces of, and that's especially true when those pieces are cheap because of an injury. Michael Gallup being out opens things up for some of the second and third tier options on that team. Cedric Wilson is likely to step up in three wide receiver sets, so he's in play, but so is Dalton Schultz. I'm preferring Schultz to Blake Jarwin just because he saw two more targets and he ran four more routes in Week one. If you like Blake Jarwin, go for it. All of these players are under rostered, though, given what they could do in this Dallas offense without Michael gallup and this week, like I said, it's a game with a very high over under, you're gonna want to have a piece of this offense, not just this week, but moving forward. One piece of feedback on last week's sleeper show that I got was to provide more high rostered players to bench. I'll try my best, but it's not always easy to find them. I do have six of them for you though this week. Trevor Lawrence is rostered in seventy five percent of Yahoo leagues, and I would not be starting him against Denver. I know the Broncos defense wasn't that incredible against Daniel Jones. Considering Daniel Jones still posted twenty one point four Fantasy points in Week one, but he did a lot of that on the ground. He brings that element to his game, and Trevor Lawrence can do that too, but he did not show it off in Week one at all. Denver entered the year with arguably the best secondary in the league, and even though Ronald Darby is out, there's still not an attractive matchup. Robbie Anderson was a sell in fifteen transactions this week because of his nine percent target share in this new look Panthers offense in week one, and I think that lack of volume is enough to make you second guest starting him this week. I did say on that show that Anderson is probably gonna see more work moving forward, but the question is how much work and how predictable is that work going to be. And then on top of that, New Orleans looked good defensively in week one. That's just on too this worry. So I wouldn't fault anyone for benching Robbie Anderson in week two. If he goes off, great, you still have him, but he's not the easiest start in the world. I'm gonna go back to Saquon Barkley this week too. That's someone I called out as a potential sit last week. He gets a tough Washington front this week, and he didn't look his typical self in week one. He also finished with below average, especially for him, below average backfield numbers, or I guess I should say below average versus expectation. He saw seventy one percent of their running back rushes and an eight percent target chair. Maybe they involve him more in week two. I would honestly hope that's the case, but the matchup is not attractive enough for me to deem him a must start. Mike Davis's usage in Week one was actually pretty good. He had sixty two and a half percent of the Falcons running back rushes in a really really strong eighteen point two percent target chair. But he faces the Bucks this week. The Falcon's offensive line looked atrocious in Week one, and that's a big worry against the Bucks. We saw Tampa I do work against the Cowboys running backs last week. I think Davis is going to be pretty touchdown dependent here in Week two. Mark Ingram is now rostered in a lot of leagues after last week's performance. I understand the allure in getting him, but keep two things in mind. He wasn't really utilized as a receiver in Week one, and that was in a game with a positive game script and insanely positive game script. Now he gets a tough matchup against the Browns where that same script is very unlikely. David Johnson would be the play from that backfield this week because of his receiving work, and I feel like Ingram isn't going to be an easy player to trust this year. And remember, targets are worth more than rush attempts even in standard leagues, Ingram won't see much volume through the air more than likely this year. And then the final player that you can consider sitting this week, And I know it sounds a little crazy after he scored twice in Week one, but it's Josh Jacobs. In that Week one game against Baltimore, Jacobs really didn't see great peripherals. Despite finishing as the RB fourteen on the week, he had just a three point nine percent target share to go along with a sixty two and a half percent running back rush share. He only totaled forty yards. He just found the end zone twice. Now he's banged up. Now he gets a tough matchup against Pittsburgh and what could end up being a negative game script. He really is not easy to trust in Week two at the moment. Now, as I did last week, I'll end today's show with two defensive streamers that I don't mind this week. The first is the one that I talked about in the fifteen Transactions episode, and that's Green Bay. They're a home favorite, and they're not just a home favorite, they're a massive favorite. They're likely going to catch Jared Goff in a negative game script. That means the potential for both sacks and turnovers. So don't drop Green Bay after what they did last week.

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Speaker 2: Don't give up.

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Speaker 1: And then the other defense that I don't mind is the Giants. They're rostered in just six percent of Yahoo leagues and they'll get Taylor Heineke.

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Speaker 2: And the football team this week.

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Speaker 1: Fandel Sportsbook has that game with just a forty and a half point over under and the Giants are three point road underdogs, so it's a pretty evenly matched game that's expected to be low scoring with a backup quarterback under center. That's the type of matchup that's decent to target for a streaming defense. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found in order to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 2: Thanks everyone. We got one more show this week, the Mailbag episode. I'll talk to you then,