438: Mailbag 10/30/20

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha Ja Ja Zacherson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and thirty eight of the Late Round podcast with many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thank you for tuning in. Before get into questions this week, I want to send another reminder to check out this week's FanDuel Podcast Network Listener League. Like every week, it's a five dollars three max entry contest that's completely rake free, so you can spend up to fifteen dollars on three lineups and not have to pay any rake. This week there's fifteen hundred dollars up for grabs. Visit FanDuel dot com Slash League Slash Listener League to join. Eligibility restrictions apply. The first question this week is from at Andrew laz It says, love your content.

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Speaker 2: Thanks.

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Speaker 1: How vital do you think it is the prioritize stacking in redraft?

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Speaker 2: I E.

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Speaker 1: I'm rolling with Justin Herbert, so do I make a strong play for a Keenan Allen trade? So I referenced a study done by Established the Runs Mike Leoni over the offseason about this, and what he found was that, yes, stacking is a pretty good idea in season long leagues. Part of that, though, is because if a quarterback hits, if a late round quarterback hits, then there's a higher chance his pass catchers are gonna hit two. Like if we knew that Justin Herbert would be this good, there's no way Keenan Allen's ADP would have been where it was in August. Now, with that being said, I also don't think it's a bad idea to have that type of upside in a single elimination playoff. But just like DFS, it's not always completely necessary. When you're looking at a cash game lineup. You just want to be optimal above all else. So to your question of do I make a strong play for a Keenan Allen trade, I think the answer to that is yes, you should trade for Keenan Allen because of their upcoming.

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Speaker 2: Schedule and his usage.

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Speaker 1: That's why I talked about him earlier this week. But I wouldn't be suboptimal or except a lesser deal only because I have Justin Herbert. I think it's more of a nice to have than anything else in a normal league. If you're in a larger field tournament, that's a different story. This last questions from at Fantasy Bulldog. Where is Zeke in your rest of season rankings? Given the Cowboys offensive line issues?

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Speaker 2: So let's first look at.

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Speaker 1: Guys that I would definitely have above Zeke and who aren't injured, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry. When you add in the injured guys, they include Aaron Jones, and depending on your risk tolerance, I think that you can throw in Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders too. At the very least, I think that those guys are around the same level. And then there are players on the fringe that you can make an argument for, those being Jonathan Taylor, James Connor, James Robinson, maybe Chris Carson's in that range. So basically, I'm looking at Zeke as sort of a low end RB one. It's a bad situation that he's in. He's a banged up offensive line, there's no Dak Prescott. He's getting the volume. That's great, but it's been pretty ugly. This last questions from at Straight Cash Homie twelve should I drop Singletary seems like a roster clog where I won't play him but not producing offense. Scoring is down. Moss's back to split, and he wasn't good when he got the solo gig. I got a few questions like this one this week, which isn't that surprising because there are so many split backfields across the NFL. Joshua Kelly and Justin Jackson were talked about in particular.

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Speaker 2: But the answer to.

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Speaker 1: Any question like this is that it depends if you think Singletary can seriously help another team in your league, then I would not drop him. I'd much rather do a two for one trade and throw him in that trade to get an upgrade somewhere else. I'd also say that Singletary wasn't totally unusable without Zach Moss. He had a couple of strong performances. He was two for three. When it comes to having a usable performance without Moss, now that Moss.

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Speaker 2: Is back, it's hard to start either of those guys.

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Speaker 1: I agree, But number one, ask yourself who you're getting off the waiver wire, who's better? And then number two, we know, even based on our small sample with Singletary without Moss, that there's at least some usability if one of those two backs gets hurt. It depends entirely on the type of player that you're getting off the waiver wire to replace him, and whether or not he can be useful for another team. But this is related to another question that I got this week from at Sideshow Tim two. He asked, does a guy like Alexander Madison lose bench stash status when he gets his chance and disappoints or should he be valued more since Cook is continually bitten by the injury bug. Love your work, thank you, but ask yourself the same question. Do I absolutely need a different player off the waiver wire for Alexander Madison? Am I going to use that waiver wire player a whole bunch? And then ask if an injury happens to that player's teammate, if that player gets a better circumstance, is it going to lead the more upside than what I have with Alexander Madison. Again, I don't know the answer to that for sure, but I will say, and I sa this before on the show, but don't take the one game sample from Madison and assume that he can't be usable. It was a bad game against Atlanta, There's no doubt, but in that game he did see seventy seven percent of the team's running back rushes in almost a six percent target share. I think instead of us assuming that Madison wouldn't be worthwhile, we should just realize that he won't be Dalvin Cook. That doesn't make him unrosterable though. This next question is from at Cruz nick O eight. What are your thoughts in the Arizona backfield? Is Chase Edmonds a must buy as a Drake manager? Does Drake come back and keep his role? Just trying to decide what to do?

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Speaker 2: Thanks? So, I get why the question is phrased in such a black and white way.

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Speaker 1: You won an answer, and it's my job as a fantasy analyst to provide answers to questions like this.

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Speaker 2: But I don't think this way. My brain doesn't work this way. I'm sorry. I don't think in a super black and white way about this stuff. It's why I've.

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Speaker 1: Had both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds this season as buys at one point or another. Drake was pretty earlier in the year when Arizona schedule really opened up, and then Edmonds was a few weeks later because he was seeing such strong pass catching work and he was just playing really well.

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Speaker 2: So with that being said, I look at it this way.

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Speaker 1: I think Edmunds has a very very high ceiling, while also recognizing that Drake could come back and push Edmonds back.

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Speaker 2: Into his old role very easily.

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Speaker 1: I'm probably more bullish on Edmonds than most are, though. That's why I called him a bye a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: Like, if I were to.

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Speaker 1: Lean one way, it would be to see what I could trade away for Edmunds and kind of go from there. And you probably want to do that as soon as you can. Because they're on a bye this week, teams may be more willing to part with Edmunds and get a piece that will immediately help them this week, because a very realistic outcome here is that Edmunds balls out. I mean, we saw something like this happened last year with the Cardinals and Kenyan Drake. If that happens, the Cardinals are going to be forced to give him a bigger role than he had with a healthy Kenyan Drake. I just think that you should be grounded with a take like this. There's no reason to say definitively Chase ed will take over this backfield.

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Speaker 2: What does that do?

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Speaker 1: If you guys want me to be that bold, I can be that bold. But there's a lot of gray area here. And the thing is it doesn't allow your mind to truly see the full range of outcomes, and you'll probably end up overpaying for that player very very often. If that's the way that you think about fantasy football. That happens all the time. It happens to me sometimes in fantasy football.

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Speaker 2: But because of.

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Speaker 1: The ceiling that Edmunds brings with Drake's sidelined, and because he can grow into a bigger role when Drake returns, I'm much more on the by side of things now. With that being said, if you have Kenyan Drake, bringing on Edmunds could end up being a very very tilting thing. I say this all the time, and I said it when Edmonds was a bye on fifteen Transactions a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: But I'd much rather have.

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Speaker 1: Edmunds independent of Drake because there's a very real chance you just get a headache each and every week and have no idea who to start. So I don't think you having Drake or not having Drake should be the deciding factor as to whether orn you go for Chase Edmonds. This next question is from at flan Man zero zero. Any advice for managers with high season point totals that don't have the wins to show for it. I find myself second in points for the season, yet drowning at two to five because some bad breaks.

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Speaker 2: Thanks love the pod. Thanks.

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Speaker 1: So, I'd first say that each league needs to start implementing a rule for a bad luck playoff spot in the leagues that I commission. For example, the top five teams get in on record, so I COMMISSI a twelve team league of fourteen team league. Whatever the top five teams they get in on win loss record. The sixth team they make the playoffs if they have the most points. That's not in, So the most points outside the top five doesn't matter what their record is. That way, you still get the fun of head to head matchups, which we all love in fantasy football. But points scored still matters. If you're scoring a ton of points consistently each week, though, then you're doing something right. Getting unlucky happens, your point scored is usually going to be a better indicator of your team's overall talent and success, then your overall record will so in that case, just hope that your luck turns around. But you should always be trying to improve your roster no matter your situation. This asks questions from at TP underscore FFL what can you realistically expect if you are an AB manager that's willing to trade. I have wide receiver depth, but could do better at running back or quarterback. My read could be wrong here, but I think the market right now isn't high enough on Antonio Brown. Like I will not be the least bit shocked if he ends up with the highest target chair on that team from like weeks ten through the end of the fantasy season. If you really want to get rid of him, though, my advice would be less of a one for one thing. But because his valuation is going to be everywhere, pair him with another player on your team. Let's say a running back and do a two for one trading for an upgrade at running back. That way, there's a little bit more in that trade to evaluate to sort of water down the high variants that AB brings. If that makes sense, It makes sense in my head. It might not make sense to you guys, But overall, I think that I'm higher than most are on AB. People seem to forget how dominant that guy can be. And it's not like his not playing football recently had anything to do with skill. Now, if you don't want to take on AB because you're morally opposed to it, or you think that he's a distraction, still I totally get it. I totally understand there's risk. I'm just saying this from a football perspective. This has questions from at north.

00:10:29
Speaker 2: Of the Star.

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Speaker 1: Who would you dart throw a league winner second half of season? JK Dobbins, Damian Harris, Jamichael Hasty. To me, this is mostly just a process of elimination thing. Damien Harris is in the New England backfield where they've shown us already that they're going to have a committee. His offense is struggling too, and if it wasn't struggling, you have to be concerned about Cam Newton's stealing goal line work. So not Damien Harris, although I don't mind him this weekend with Hasty, I just don't see him being a workhorse when Raheem Mostert's back. Mostard has looked amazing this year when he's been healthy, so that leaves us with JK. Dobbins, which I think is totally logical. He should have more opportunity this week if mark ingram sits, and if he shows up, then it's very easy to envision a scenario where the Ravens use him more and more down the stretch as they try to get a higher seed in the playoffs. He's also the most talented back in this group, so I think the safest bet of these three is easily JK.

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Speaker 2: Dobbins.

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Speaker 1: This last question is from at Sea Underscore Green Underscore seventeen. When choosing a quarterback to start, do slash? Should your opponent's wide receiver even matter, such as a tiebreaker between comparable options choosing between Tannehill and Wentz an opponent has aj Brown? Is it as simple as floor and ceiling? Well, it depends on who the wide receiver or the pass catcher is. If it's like some third tier player, it's less of a big deal. If it's Devonte Adams, then yeah, Starting Aaron Rodgers means that you're sharing points more than likely. If Aaron Rodgers goes off, the chance that Adams has a good game is pre high. I mean the dude's seeing like a thirty eight percent target share per game. Like a lot of the questions that I get, whether it's like this or about a trade, just remember to try not to be suboptimal, be optimal. Like let's say that you've got Ryan Tannehill, like you just said, and your opponent has Aj Brown, but you're a big underdog. One way to help that would be to play a non Tannehill quarterback. But if you're downgrading Tannehill to a different tiered player, then you're not being optimal with your decision making. I think that you can absolutely make a case to start Carson Wentz over Tannehill if you're a big underdog in this matchup, but not only that, you're focusing a little bit too much on that one player in that one matchup versus the other eight or nine in your opponent's lineup. I know this is another one of those gray area answers, but it's really the way.

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Speaker 2: That I view this kind of stuff.

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Speaker 1: So I would say that you should pay attention to it, but I don't usually change my lineup based on it unless I have comparable replacements. The last question this week is from at coret Centderscore Frank twelve. Michael Pittman coming back this week or next? Is he worth a look?

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Speaker 2: Yes?

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Speaker 1: I loved Michael Pittman as a prospect. I thought that he had alpha potential in this class, and don't forget before he went down with that injury, he had a twenty four percent target share and a sixteen percent target share in weeks two and three.

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Speaker 2: There's not a whole lot of competition.

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Speaker 1: There right now, so I'm down to ad Pittman and I've done so in a few leagues.

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Speaker 2: That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.

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Speaker 1: If you've got subscribed to Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. You don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I appreciate you listening all week long, enjoy your weekend, good luck in week eight, and I'll talk to you next week.