Late-Round Perspectives: Ray Garvin

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Ray Garvin is the founder and creator of Destination Debbie and hosts of the popular show Wake Up with Ray Gie. He's a former college football defensive back. He's got a law degree, and he's the first to say good morning to all the good people out there. These are his late round perspectives. But I think this is the first actual show that we've sat down and just talked ball together.

00:00:32
Speaker 2: I think so because I'm just used to hearing this, uh, the the one oh one of voices on the podcast airwaves from my car speaker. I've not heard it through my mic headphone. So you're right, this is this is ah is our first time.

00:00:44
Speaker 3: Man.

00:00:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I'm pumped. I'm super super pumped. You have you have more of like a I mean, I feel like you have a very unique background just in general when you compare it to the nerdiness of me and others in the space you come from. You know, you played defensive back and college you you have uh sort of like like you look at both the qualitative and quantitative side of the game more than I do, for sure, more than a lot of people. Because I think in general, the fantasy community skews towards numbers a little bit more than you know, being good enough to be able to watch stuff right, because not in a lot of people have the same background that you would have. So my question to you what I what I want to kick things off with. You know, you do a lot of work with college football in particular. You know, I do college football prospecting and stuff, but I don't really get going until January. If I'm being honest. You know, I'm a I'm a Pitt fan, you know, Alma Mater, all that good stuff. Kind of sucks this year. It's been pretty bad for pretty pretty bad since Picket left. But I'm more of a I'm more of a casual, you know, college football viewer in season, and then once January hits, that's when I really get going with my prospect models and like really dig into these guys. I'm still watching them because I think it's important to be competent knowing what these guys look like. But you may and I mean you're doing NFL stuff, college football stuff, You're doing everything. So I'm curious, like what your typical weekends, like, you know, during the season and in the fall, and are you skewing more towards college football? Are you skewing more towards NFL, Like, what's that look like for you?

00:02:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, j Jay, it's man's that's a I'm still trying to refine that as I go. You Know, one of the things that I've always said when I started Destination DEVI was the more you know about upcoming prospects, upcoming draft classes, just from a general standpoint, the better prepared.

00:02:35
Speaker 3: You could make your dynasty rosters.

00:02:36
Speaker 1: Right.

00:02:36
Speaker 2: You just kind of understand like this should be a good class. This is a strong tight end class or strong wide receiver class. Weekends are tough, man. I'm a father first and foremost, and I'm very proud and happy about that. And I've got two young boys who are very involved in athletics right now, so you know, Saturday mornings are a little tough. But yeah, man, I'm diving into college every single Saturday. I just I truly believe that how we play fantasy football today, like the changes that we're seeing in the NFL, they.

00:03:06
Speaker 3: Start in college.

00:03:07
Speaker 2: These spread attacks, these using these creative space makers and the tank Dells and these type of receivers. It starts in college, and you're seeing so many NFL teams start to implement different offensive strategies and schemes taken from the CFL. Anybody watching the Miami Dolphins right now. The orbit motion getting players moving before the snap, that's CFL principles. They're doing this in the Canadian Football League, and you're watching these innovative offensive coordinators in play callers pull things from college, the RPO game, the run pass options, zone reads, orbit motions, pull those and they're implementing these in the league. And we sit back on Sundays like, oh my god, did you see that play that Mike McDaniel called, And I'm like, hell yeah, Kansas runs it five times a game.

00:03:54
Speaker 3: Just watch Kansas. They're doing it.

00:03:55
Speaker 2: So my biggest thing that I feel the fantasy space is missing is I've learned so much from the data nerds that I've changed my process. I'm a lot more data driven than film. But I think real football, in fantasy football, they collide at these intersections of BMI, size, speed, all these other things. And I think that's where the biggest edge is right now, is understanding really and truly what's happening from a real NFL standpoint, whether that's no more Bell coals, the death of the bellcal running back or the emergence of the tank Dells and the smaller separation specialists.

00:04:38
Speaker 3: I truly love the.

00:04:40
Speaker 2: Game of football JJ before fantasy above any of that. So I truly love football, dude. I vividly remember, man. I had to have been about six or seven or eight years old, seven or eight when I asked my mom for a weight bench for Christmas because I wanted to get bigger and stronger for football, Like I love the game, so trying to find creative ways to pair and marry the things that I've learned from the fantasy community than some of the insight that I've gained from people that I know that have played professional football. My experience in playing the game of football and being around players who were very successful in the NFL, it just gives me a different outlook, a little more patience, and just some more context as to why things are happening or conviction bets on players who may look like an outlier from a data standpoint, but following the game and the trends, you could see this stuff coming.

00:05:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that there's I don't want to say arrogance because it's probably too strong of a word, but there's a lot of that when it comes to either side of the spectrum when we're analyzing this stuff. Whether you're purely a film dude who's maybe not even that into fantasy football, but that's just what you do, and you sit there and you totally ignore data. I think that's wrong. And if you're someone like me who's better at looking at data and analyzing trends, I still understand football, of course, but you know, at analyzing that stuff, you have to humble yourself to to know that other people might be better than you had certain things. You're bringing what you're good at to the table, right And I think that's where my process has changed a lot with prospecting, especially over the last few years, is it's really easy from a data perspective to get really locked into certain processes. You know, there's we've seen it, maybe not as much over the last year because I think Chris Alave burned a lot of people, but you see it with like the early declared stuff, and not only that, but like nil is definitely changing stuff. You know, that's that's definitely changing things. But you know, you see it with the early declare stuff and people just fading wide receivers simply because they went to school an extra year. But there's so much more to these guys than that. I think you brought up a really good example of the smaller wide receivers, and I've been guilty of it, right, Like I look at my model and and I published my prospect guide, and I'm like, why does my model like Wandell Robinson so much? Why does it like two two at Well so much? And then I subjectively, you know, push those guys down. And then eventually, you know, Wandell has a great targets per route run rate, He's looking like he could be something, hopefully eventually. And then Tutu is doing what he's doing this year. You know, it maybe took him a little bit of time. But I do think that the open mindedness is just really really key here. And you mentioned that with you sort of coming from that football background, having that background understanding the importance of data in this game, because this is a game about numbers at the end of the day, right, But it's really cool to just see kind of that transformation and stuff. So you think, like, what do you think the biggest thing from playing college ball has helped you with when it comes to fantasy football because that trans I mean, it's it's such an interesting transition. We see a lot of you know, no shade to like some people that are on TV and stuff like that, but we see a lot of like players who played, but they're clearly not putting in the work to to truly analyze the game, and they just say things on TV and stuff like that, clearly not putting you in that bucket. But you know, there is a weird transition from going from player to analyst. What do you think has helped you and maybe even hurt you at times too?

00:07:59
Speaker 2: You said it a few minutes ago, being humble, being open minded to different approaches. I think a lot of the people that we watch on TV. No offense to any of them, but they played football at the highest level. JJ at the highest level, so there comes a natural level of arrogance. Like I played in the NFL. I know, I've been in the meeting rooms, Like what can JJ Zacharison tell me I played in the league. But I do think there's a lot that the NFL community could learn from the fantasy space, from the fantasy nerds, from the data, because there is a lot of things where you look at it and you're like, this makes a lot of sense.

00:08:36
Speaker 3: It's hard to dispute this.

00:08:37
Speaker 2: I think for me, I played Division two college football. I got to play one season at the one double A level they called fcs now. But for me, the biggest thing that I learned is that player progression is not an elevator up.

00:08:50
Speaker 3: It just doesn't.

00:08:51
Speaker 2: You don't get drafted and things just go like this or things just go down. It's not a linear progression that every year you either get better or worse. Sometimes for various reasons, it takes players to two at well a Mike whomever it is, some time to navigate and find their way through a new game, a new environment. It's these are young kids coming out of college nineteen twenty years old, and I know it's hard to go back, at least for me. I'm thirty seven years old, so to go back in the mind frame of an eighteen nineteen year old, but it truly shows me and playing the game and watching a Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson just dominate year one. Those are different level of prospect. Those we always talk about the outlier, but those are the outliers like Jamar Chase is the outlier. Justin Jefferson and Justin those are the outliers. It is not the trend, it's not the normal. Even Jalen Hurts took some time. JJ and I'm not here to brag and boast, but watching Jalen Hurts in college in some of the context around what happened to him during his time at Alabama and then his transition to Oklahoma, from the time he was drafted, I was like, if this kid could just hang on long enough, if he gets some opportunity, I bet you he'll capitalize. And it took him three years to develop into Jalen Hurts, but it happened. And a lot of times in fantasy, if things don't happen week one, Jamiir Gibbs, Week two, Jamiir Gibbs, people are like, it's done, it's over. They're cook no good, trade them, drop them, wasted asset, They're a bust.

00:10:25
Speaker 3: But that's not true.

00:10:26
Speaker 2: That's not how football works. Some players take a little more time to develop. Some they hit the ground running, and those are the truly elite assets. So for me, it's given me a level of patience with some players. Now I do have a threshold. And I ain't gonna be patient forever because we don't have all that time to waste in this game or the proxy of a game that we play. But it's given me a little more level headed approach when things aren't going so well for a player early on, because it just doesn't have that's not how football is.

00:10:54
Speaker 3: It's just not.

00:10:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, and sometimes it's coaching too, right, Like sometimes it's just things that we can't really we can say this guy is really good, and you know, usually talent wins out. You know, usually coaches know what they're doing, but sometimes coaches don't always know what they're doing. There's still a non zero chance that Detroit completely screwed up what went on with DeAndre Swift. I mean, that's still there's a chance that they just didn't use him properly. They didn't mesh with him. He's doing what he's doing in Philly. You know, I think Jamier Gibbs gonna be fine. And we're recording this for the record. This is gonna go out on a Friday. We're recording this before hopefully, fingers crossed Jamier Gibbs goes off, you know again against the Packers. But I do want to throw that caveat out there, but I do think that, you know, there's just so many different angles to kind of come from as to why players are and aren't doing things. We can look at trends, and that's why I always say this is a more probability driven thing as opposed to a factual thing. You know, the way that Quentin Johnston has gotten off to his start, Yeah, I mean it's a little bit concerning. It doesn't mean that he's toast. It's just we would rather him knock it off to the start that he's gotten off to. We would rather him be on the field more, seeing more routes. One of those players Ray who didn't really get off to a hot start, whether it was injury or not, was Kyen Williams. Right he comes out, he gets hurt. I think it was on special teams. Right his first week, there were some rumblings that he was going to get more work. It was basically a report that came out like hours before that first game, if I remember correctly, where they were saying that Kyen Williams might see more work in this Rams offense than we all anticipated. And we're like, well that was from left field, because you know, he basically went from someone that a lot of people. I think you were in on Kiren, you know, you know, entering the wise. Yeah, I liked him, and then he got knocked in my model because he tested like me at the combine. Right, you know, I'm not I'm sorry, I'm not running a four to seven even I'm probably running a five to seven. But regardless, you know, the dude, the dude goes the combine, he tests pretty poorly. It's not everything, it's just part of the equation. Right then he goes Year one didn't really show that much. But then year two we're seeing, right, year two for them right now, right, I'm not being not being crazy?

00:13:02
Speaker 3: Yeah you too, Yep, it's you too.

00:13:03
Speaker 1: I didn't I was kind of having a brain fart there. But Kien Williams now this season not only starts splitting that backfield with cam Akers. Now cam Akers is gone, and over the last two weeks, Kien Williams has seen every single running back rush in the Rams backfield. There's only been five of those games all season long. He has two of those games across the league. So I want to ask you, as someone who was into Kiren entering the league. Do you have any concern about him being this belcal for the Rams? Do you think that he is a because there is concern out there for sure from a lot of people. Still, even after seeing the volume, is there concern on your end that he's not gonna be able to maintain this? And then as a result, do you think that he's sort of a cell in fantasy or do you think that he's still a bye?

00:13:47
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I'm concerned, absolutely, JJ.

00:13:51
Speaker 2: Not just the fact that he's playing every snap out of the backfield, is the fact that he's on special team still. He's like, I know, that seems like something very minute and minor, but the fact that he's still on special teams. I'm seeing him on Parnt return kick return. I think I saw him on the coverage unit. Don't quote me on this, but I think that is.

00:14:11
Speaker 3: Concerning for me.

00:14:12
Speaker 2: You just you don't utilize your starting running back like that.

00:14:17
Speaker 3: But here's the thing. Rams didn't invest anything in Kyraen Williams.

00:14:20
Speaker 2: Nothing They've got They've got no monetary financial money tied up in that player. They'll continue to ride him and use him as long as he's healthy, as long as he's healthy and as long as he can get on the field and tote the rock, I'm sure they will continue to use him. He is somebody that I would one hundred percent try to sell. I understand the opportunity and the usage. I love it, but this is a guy that the moment and ja J, You've been in this game long enough to see the different trends and sort of reactions in the space. I haven't seen fantasy football this reactionary ever since I've been playing.

00:14:59
Speaker 3: I mean it is.

00:15:00
Speaker 2: It is a day to day thing, hour by hour, and almost player value right it is very, very reactionary. If Karen Williams went out there and knock on Wood, we don't ever wish for injuries, but tweaked an ankle, he suffered a high ankle sprain and was gonna miss multiple weeks, A value would tank. That wouldn't be the same for a Beijon Robinson or a Christian McCaffrey, but for Kyrine it would be next man up. So while I am encouraged and thankful for the production in the usage that he's giving us right now, heck yeah, I'm concerned, and do I believe it will continue? It will until it won't because he plays running back and they will get hurt, and at that point in time, I think his value is going to take a massive hit.

00:15:40
Speaker 1: Yeah. It's a really really weird situation for me, at least in the way that I'm analyzing it, because you know, obviously seeing all this work, so when he's seeing work, he's going to be usable to some degree in fantasy football. Right. My issue is number one, what you're saying, health for sure, right, and not only that, but like I don't know if he's like built for it, you know, I just this isn't like, this isn't like a Saquon. You know, obviously Saquan hasn't been able to stay healthy, but just like that kind of build, right, It's just that's that's not the running back that we're talking about here. So that's one thing. The other thing is I look at their depth chart, and I don't know where you are at with Ronnie Rivers and Zach Evans coming out, right, But I personally like, like I was looking at my prospect model earlier today, both of those guys look worse in the model than Kyraen Williams did, right, And so I'm sitting here, and I'm saying if they had, you know, I look at like Minnesota right now, it's really really easy to say, Alexander Madison better be looking over his shoulder because now they have camp makers and I think Ty Chandler's an explosive back and he's at least intriguing, right, And so it's easier for me to say, yeah, like like throw some darts at a Chandler or an Acres because Alexander Madison hasn't been performing that well right. He's seeing volume, but the talent might not be there. He might just be a jag, and so that is you know, from that perspective, it's really easy to then say, Okay, you don't have to buy into Alexander Madison. You can you can sell them off, or you can trade them away whatever, try to trade based on this volume. With Kyen Williams, I hate the backups too, Like the the backups just start doing it for me. And it's not like free agency that there's just these guys sitting there ready to step in. I know, like Leonard Fournette still out there and stuff. But you know, I'm not excited about any sort of competition. And that's the That's the thing that's really keeping me attached to Kyen in some way because I see the down of course they see the downside. But I also just don't trust Ronnie Rivers and Zach Evans And are you are you in the same boat? Do you feel the same way?

00:17:35
Speaker 3: Yeah?

00:17:36
Speaker 2: And that is the dichotomy here is I have I have zero interest in either of the two backup running backs, right I don't think in wyld on Earth would the Rams pay Leonard Fournette two million dollars or whatever to cut for what Like? I just I have little confidence that any other running back is going to step in that room and pull away from Kyraen Williams this year absent and injury. And that's that is that is that that the point right there? JJ, What do you do you ride the production or if you do sell, are you selling for something that is giving you more upside, more safety security long term?

00:18:13
Speaker 3: I don't know that this That is my concern with Kyron.

00:18:16
Speaker 2: Yet the other side of the fence is those other two are zero threat to Kyen Williams as long as he's healthy, they are zero threat. But JJ, we look at this offense, the O line is a mess the fact that he's producing behind. The only thing keeping us in on Kyroen is the opportunity in the usage that that is really it so for me that that is where that interesting dichotomy sort of comes into play.

00:18:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, the thing that I've learned through the years is that you do not want to just buy into situation. You do not want to just buy into volume. You don't want to buy into this dude's seeing all these running back rushes. It's it's obviously part of the equation because you want to know what that looks like. But uh, you know, from my perspective, especially in like I mean, if you're if we're talking dynasty here, he's an easier, much easier sell. Uh you know, Redraft, I understand if you just kind of you know, you got him off the waiver wire, you're just kind of riding it out whatever, because the backups aren't aren't anything special either. But I do think I think you're right, like, like, we have to be cognizant that, yeah, he produced. Yeah he's had some decent games, but there's a chance, probably a decent chance that there's struggles ahead just because that offense and the way that it's built. The on the flip side is an offense that's thriving, crushing, unbelievable situation. And you got Devon a Chan, who I've been calling a chain, you know all off season?

00:19:35
Speaker 3: Is it a Chan? Is it chain? Or what is it agent?

00:19:38
Speaker 2: What is it? I'm about to call you aj because I'm thinking about a chain.

00:19:42
Speaker 3: What is his name?

00:19:43
Speaker 2: J J?

00:19:43
Speaker 3: So what is the last name?

00:19:44
Speaker 1: Well? The other thing, too, man, is that I had I had him as without the apostrophe like throughout cause in college he didn't go. It's like it's like it's like they just didn't care about like asking players what they I don't know what it's like when you were in school and stuff, but they just didn't even botely ask players how to say their first name, how to even spell their first name. And as someone with the last name Zacharieson, I feel their pain and I want to get it right like I feel your pain Devon. So Devon ah Chan evidently, according to Adam Schefter, that's what he threw out there this week. But man, he he had a big Week three. And I was someone who was worried about the size at first and then again putting on my real football hat. I saw the landing spot, and I think it's okay to understand that connection and say he's going to destroy in this Miami offense and in this scheme as we've seen an Elijah Mitchell, a Raheem Mostert, who for some reason, I think people think Raheem Mostert is like this big, big dude. The dude's like two hundred pounds. I mean, he's not that big of a guy. He's just he's very fast, and that's exactly what we got with Devon a change. But e Chanin's better than those guys, right, He's a better prospect than those players. So where are you at? Where were you at in the draft prout? You were I think you were into him during the draft process and all that, But where are you at right now? And just what are your thoughts overall with Devon ah Chazy and buys he just sell?

00:21:07
Speaker 3: Uh?

00:21:07
Speaker 1: Do you think he's going to maintain this? What kind of workload? Will you see? All that good stuff?

00:21:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely buying.

00:21:12
Speaker 2: Going into the draft, he was fluctuated between RB two and RB four For me the entire process, he was a player that I've I've got a very popular YouTube short out there where I said he will be the player that puts everyone's process and model to the test because he the production is going to be there, the speed is there, you can see the athleticism what he can bring to the table.

00:21:34
Speaker 3: Yet he's five 't eight, And let me.

00:21:37
Speaker 2: Just tell you whatever they're listed at when they do their weight in the summertime, that ain't what they play at. You play at a much lower weight when you're on the field. So one eighty eight is probably playing about one eighty two is lower than one.

00:21:50
Speaker 3: Hundred eighty eight pounds.

00:21:52
Speaker 2: I'm buying into him because of the offense, the scheme, how do you stop it? And this was happening without Jaalen Wat on the other side of the field, So it's the creativity of the offense JJ. They are doing things schematically that make it very, very easy for the running backs, for the linemen to create advantageous running situations. When you've got a tyreek hill on one side that commands double two eyes every single play, two or three like these running lanes will be plentiful for the backfield moving forward. Now, do I expect him to go out there and have two hundred rushing yards with two receiving touchdowns and two No.

00:22:31
Speaker 3: I mean, he's what one of.

00:22:33
Speaker 2: Six players to do that fifty point game in the last ten years, So no, I don't I don't anticipate that. But Chunk plays the upside that there may not. There may be a handful of players if we were if we really looked at each situation, JJ, there's probably a handful of players that have that type of upside in fantasy period, across all positions. And he just did that with his first real opportunity in the league. Now, Denver probably laid down and wave the white flag a little bit, but I'm not going there. What he did, what he put on wax, what he put on the film. Heck, yeah, I'm buying into this. He's a He's a very good player in a great offense with an offensive mine that is next level right now, what Mike McDaniel's doing is next level tide coaching and scheming.

00:23:20
Speaker 3: I'm buying in.

00:23:20
Speaker 2: He has upside that I think very few running backs possess in fantasy football.

00:23:25
Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned earlier about the death of the bell cow right, and I think that's really really important when analyzing a chan it's still weird to say a Chan man. I think it's really really important when it comes to him, though, because I've been getting questions all week for the mail bag, all that good stuff about him, what to do with him, about that that Miami backfield, And to me, and this was written in my draft guide too, there were he's a player who doesn't need twenty plus touches to be effective in fantasy football, right, And I think to your point about the death of the bell cow, and you look across the league, there are no there are no every every backfield has a committee of some sort, right, even San Francisco to some degree, Right when they're in these crazy good scripts, which they're gonna often be in, they're using Elijah mitchellmore even Tony Pollard. We saw Rico Dowdell get more work this past week, or and I wouldn't be surprised we continue to see him get some work in that offense moving forward. And so when you give that context, yeah, Devon A Chan, sorry A Chan is gonna be in a committee moving forward. Yeah, you know, Raheem Mosterd is still gonna get his Jeff Wilson when he gets back, still might get his But my stance on it is, if there's going to be a staple in that backfield, it's gonna be a Chan. It's not gonna be even Raheem Moster, who's looked great to start the year. It's not gonna be Jeff Wilson. I'm gonna invest and bet on a Chan, who is a better player than both of those guys. He's objectively across the board, a more explosive and a better player. And so I'm going to say, yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna push my chips in on that player, not the thirty one year old who's often injured and the guy coming off I ar, you know, the guy who has really only thrived within this zone scheme, right, And so that's why I think, you know a lot of people are like, oh, I guess we gotta sell high on Devon Han right now because he had this fifty point performance. And I'm like, yeah, look, if someone's gonna buy him as a top three running back in fantasy, short go ahead and sell away. But no one does that. That's just not the way that people operate. I think. I think at times we assume that fantasy managers are sort of dumber and more rational than they actually are. And I think a lot of people realize that last week was an outlier. Ah is probably never gonna do that again in his career in terms of scoring fifty fifty plus fantasy points. But can he be a solid RB two for your team? Yeah, I definitely think he can. So I'm with you with him plus year. I mean, look, there is such a difference between the best offenses and the worst offense in the league right now compared to what we even saw five six years ago. I want as many Miami Dolphins as possible, right like I go. I just I want that offense. I want those players. Ten touches in the Miami Dolphins offense could hypothetically be better than twenty five touches in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. You know, yes, And so I think that needs to be considered as well.

00:26:23
Speaker 3: One hundred percent. Nothing else to add.

00:26:26
Speaker 2: It's in Miami's offense, and miss correct me if I'm wrong. They're much better than like the second best offense. When you're looking at EP it's it's crazy, unreal what they're doing right now. So absolutely give me every piece of that offense. And if I could only have one that wasn't Tyreek Hill. It would be Devon a chan a chan.

00:26:47
Speaker 1: Okay, it's too it's too hard man. Let's move Let's move on so we don't have to say it anymore. Uh, all right, So Traylon Burks, I'm I'm trying to talk about the younger guys here because I know that this is your this is what you're you're into with your specialty with with analyzing these players. Traylon Burks stuck in Tennessee right now, that offense honestly one of the lower key most disastrous offenses in the league right now. I feel like it's not being talked about enough. How bad that offense has really been to start the year. I mean, even DeAndre Hopkins has not been that good of a fantasy asset whatsoever. And so you get Traylon Burks. He's now buried behind not only DeAndre Hopkins, but he's in this offense. It's just looking rough this year. So where do you view him? You know, I don't think this year is necessary to really really dig into. But are you then nervous about him moving forward in Dynasty too?

00:27:37
Speaker 3: Yeah?

00:27:37
Speaker 2: This year is it's a no go. I was enthusiastic about what he could potentially do this year. Coming into the season, JJ as the potential number one and they bring in Hopkins and I'm like, okay, this is this is even better.

00:27:50
Speaker 3: Now he doesn't have to be the one.

00:27:51
Speaker 2: He could slot into that number two role, learn from Hopkins and this offense could get rolling. But it's anything but that. See leagues, He's unstartable. I mean, you look at the target share on that team. It's they're not even good. They're not quality targets. He's not being targeted at the clip he needs to be in order to be a consistent producer and long term second year JJ. And while I talked about at the beginning of the show, I understand the player career arcs don't just go all the way up all the time like an elevator or stairs, and they don't just plummet down like off of a cliff. But by year two, especially with wide receivers, I need to see something out of you in year two. And while they were flashes as a rookie, I wonder how much this is harming him because it doesn't look like Vrabel's probably going anywhere much like those middling teams and dynasty.

00:28:44
Speaker 3: You never want to be in the middle.

00:28:45
Speaker 2: It feels like Tennessee is this middling team where they're not going to be picking high enough to draft an elite quarterback. And this is bad. It is not a good situation. And it's funny. We just go from Miami where you say you want a part of any part that offense, and I mean any in deeper leagues. Give me some Braxton Barrios in basketball as well, j J. I honestly, outside of some name that the game isn't matching up with the name, I don't think I want any part of Tennessee's offense now.

00:29:15
Speaker 3: Or for the foreseeable future. It looks bad.

00:29:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I think part of the problem too with Treylon is in college he played a lot in the slot right he was he was very much an inline player, and they've been trying to not do that in the NFL. But that's part of the optimism I had from like a real football perspective with DeAndre Hopkins being there. They just don't have a play. They're not I don't think they're using burks necessarily properly. And then on top of that, I don't think they have a distributor to be able to get him the ball. So I'm with you. I think in a lot of twelve team leagues, unfortunately, like he's he's droppable, right Like I just I think that's where we're at right now with Traylon Burks.

00:29:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you're just holding them it almost Those are players where I call them just land mines. They're sort of grenades that when you cut a player like a Treylon Burks, you cut a player, you know, some other middling player that has a name. What happens is when those players hit waivers, your league mates in turn use some of their fab or their waiver priority to pick up Traylon. That's just an that's a landmine that I'm planting out there on waivers for somebody else to drop, you know, to drop a player that may not have the name JJ Robert Woods. Right now, I'm dropping Robert Woods. Let me pick up Treylon. He's got upside. But no, that's a landmine. That's a grenade that you've actively planted out there for another league, made to pick up drop somebody else, free up a roster spot for you, and burn some fab for somebody else.

00:30:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't even think and I talked about this a little bit on my mailback show, but I don't even think that if DeAndre Hopkins were to get hurt and Traylon were to be elevated, I still don't even know if he would be a consistent enough could you You would roster him probably at that point, but I don't know if he would be this like plugging your lineup and forget about it kind of guy. I don't think it would be there, just because the offense has just been so inept.

00:31:09
Speaker 2: And JAJ that's a big that in seasonal leagues, that's a big thing. If you pick up a player and you literally have no idea of when to start said player and you're just kind of you, I think, what is the use of said player if you truly don't even feel confident of plugging him in to your lineup? When the when the when the opportunity If DeAndre Hopkins goes out and you still don't feel good about starting Trey Law and then he needs to be on waivers.

00:31:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, it's true. It's true unless you're in a super deep format or something. Yes, Yeah, I mean I think you're right, Like it's just a really, really tough offense, you know, to just generally invest in right now. One of the things with lay round perspectives I like to do, uh is obviously get another analyst perspective. I say stuff on the show, you know, throughout the week, and a lot of the stuff that I say is going to be naturally wrong, and some of the stuff I say is going to be naturally stupid because I don't get everything right and I'm gonna look idiotic at the end of the day. One of the players that I had on fifteen transactions this week as a cell was Damian Pierce. And I understand the other side of the argument, that the favorable side of the argument, and I, you know, I obviously just talked about how I don't think all fantasy managers are totally irrational, and I'm basically saying, look at Damian Pierce last week, he found the end zone. You know, maybe they're looking at his total and they're saying, oh, it was a decent enough day for Pierce, you know, an RB two performance. I'm gonna I'm gonna buy into that and just just kind of go from there. My argument is, we actually saw a really nice game script for him, and they're still thrown in Devin Singletary even, you know, to close out that game. And so yeah, there's gonna be games where, maybe even this weekend against Pittsburgh, where it's closer, they're gonna use Damian Pierce a little bit more. The offensive line should get a little bit better. I get all of that. My concern overall is just he's not seeing the receiving usage that we would want him to see. Right, So let me know how dumb I was with that, with that recommendation.

00:32:59
Speaker 3: I don't think dumb at all at all.

00:33:01
Speaker 2: And the optimist in me wants to say, oh man, he just give it some time. It's gonna work itself out. But if you watch those games, or if you just look at the numbers, you don't have to watch it, just look at the number. They're not gonna pull Devin Singletary off of the field. This is not going to be Damian Pierce's backfield, which I believe a lot of us fantasy gamers to a degree. I don't believe any of us thought that he's getting eighty percent of the work JJ, but sixty plus percent consistently. The guy on passing down work, consistently, singletary, filling in here and there. That's what I expected, But that's not the case. He is a part of that offense, and the bigger thing is his rookie quarterback. They'reletting him throw the ball forty plus times a game if he wants to, and it's not going to him. So this is a situation where I definitely think that Pierce will have it, and I think you agree. He'll have some moments where yeah, he pops and he's as a nice RB two, maybe even some RB one weeks here and there. But he's another guy that you plug him in and you just got your fingers crossed.

00:34:07
Speaker 3: You're praying for a touchdown.

00:34:09
Speaker 2: You do not you do not have great confidence when you throw him in here that I've got fifteen points locked in from Damian Pierce. You're like, just don't give me zero, Please score a touchdown. He is one of the names that I think people can buy into, and if you were to trade him in a season and format, I think you can get something probably pretty decent and usable back. This offense is problematic for him because he's not the guy. He's got a young rookie quarterback who. I don't think the Texans coaching staff cares if they win.

00:34:37
Speaker 3: A game or not.

00:34:38
Speaker 2: This season is about developing CJ. Stroud and seeing what we can have in the future. It's a fourth round running back on year two. He is not going to have the outcome that I thought. Probably the way it looks early, he's not going to be the type of finisher that I thought he would be from a fantasy perspective this year.

00:34:59
Speaker 1: New coaching staff too, right, new coaching staff. I think a lot of times, and this is me just kind of like, I don't think that I've really thrown this like idea out there, but I think a lot of times fantasy managers make the assumption that when there's something new that's going well early, like I would say, overall, CJ. Stroud is playing way better than even his mom thought he would play how he would play, right, and so everyone's excited about c J. Stroud. I think the Texans are out performing expectation generally speaking, especially after last week, and so I think automatically it makes people think this is only going to get better, right for Houston, Like there's no way that it gets worse. This is his first three games of the year and he's already doing this. And while I understand that's part of the range of outcomes, of course, like their line is gonna get healthier, Stroud looks legit right so far. And the coaching staff, I think is a smart coaching staff. And so you put all that together, Yeah, that's part of the range of outcomes here, But you have to also think about the flip side. Teams are now getting filmed, teams are understanding how this offense is really operating when it was a big unknown entering the season. And so I do think there's at least a piece of that that needs to be part of our consideration here with the Texans offense. When I say sell Damian Pierce, I'm not saying that I think he's gonna be an RB for rest of season. I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that if you can get you know, like like draft day pricing for Damian Pierce, because like you said, where he was being drafted to where he's at now, there's a gap where he's fallen, right, and if you can make up that gap after and people are buying into this Texans offense, buying into the fact that he scored a touchdown this past week, why not try and do that. That's really what the Damian Pierce take I think is mostly.

00:36:39
Speaker 3: About, I'm with you. I'm with you on that one, all right.

00:36:42
Speaker 1: So let's move on to the Vikings backfield. I already talked about Alexander Madison a little bit. This one. This one's a disaster. It's a disaster. The Vikings right now have nine passing touchdowns and zero rushing touchdowns, so that's likely going to regress a little bit. And hypothetically Alexander Madison's numbers should look better than they do from like a fantasy perspective, and in a production standpoint, seeing a lot of volume, they go out and they give up literally, I mean it was nothing for camp makers. It was literally like the equivalent of like fourteen dollars, right, And so they go out they get cam makers. Ty Chandler's on that roster. But do you think cam makers in particular, like, are you buying into camp makers kind of overtaking this backfield and just becoming the Alexander Madison in the backfield or are you concerned sort of given how everything went down in LA because I know you were a camp Makers guy. Yeah, him coming out, Yes, I was also a cam Akers guy. And so I'm curious where you stand after the turmoil and the issues that he went through over in LA.

00:37:40
Speaker 2: I still think cam Makers is a supremely talented running back. I don't believe his achilles injury that he suffered, what was that two years ago? I don't think that is impacting his play on the field. I do believe that there are probably things that we do not know, we don't have the access to, that were going on back there, that have contributed to that contributed to the rift and the friction and that relationship. I think a change of scenery will be very good for cam Akers. But alsoj NFL coaches are arrogant. They are arrogant, right. They want their guys that they picked, that they've been around to be successful. Do I think cam Akers is a threat to Alexander Madison. I wish I would. I wish the answer was yes, because if the answer was yes, and there was some true conviction behind that, you and I say absolutely he's a threat, you want to go get him, it would make a lot, it would make.

00:38:33
Speaker 3: All of this a lot easier.

00:38:34
Speaker 2: It's go get cam Akers try to get off of Madison, it's only a matter of time. I think the more likely outcome is both of them are just kind of muddied in.

00:38:42
Speaker 3: That bad backfield.

00:38:43
Speaker 2: I believe that unless Madison gets hurt, they're not gonna bench him. He's been there for how many years his entire career. This is the O'Connell's guy. He's been there his entire career. Absent him just absolutely getting hurt or just fumbling can't catch anything. I don't think he's going to be relegated to the bench and cam Akers elevated to sixty plus percent opportunity. It's probably just going to be a nasty backfield with both of both of those guys and create an environment where for fantasy we don't know who to play on it any given week. I don't think that Madison's play has forced the Vikings to say, we don't want to see what somebody else can give us. And I don't know if Akers is going to get the opportunity to get enough work to take that backfield over from him and the three four five attempts or opportunities that ty Chandler gets, And again, I know that's not a lot. But when it's between you know, ten touches and eight touches, eleven and thirteen, those things matter. So this just feels like a situation JJ where it's just going to be a coin flip headache thing for the Vikings.

00:39:51
Speaker 1: Do you think there's a chance that Ty Chandler is the most talented back right now in that backfield chance?

00:39:59
Speaker 3: I do believe that.

00:40:00
Speaker 2: I like Chi Chandler coming out of North Carolina quite a bit, quite a bit.

00:40:04
Speaker 3: I was a big Todd Chandler guy. I think so.

00:40:06
Speaker 2: But they haven't been given him the opportunity, right, So it's even if he is, is he gonna get the opportunity. But I do think there is a non zero chance that Todd Chandler is the running back who should be tote in the rock in Minnesota and not the other two.

00:40:21
Speaker 3: Absolutely, yeah, yeah, the other the other thing too.

00:40:23
Speaker 1: I don't know if Chandler is like a true true bell cow, you know, and I think he's more like maybe because one of his comps for me was Elijah Mitchell coming out right and so like, I don't think that Elijah Mitchell was ever gonna maintain that rookie season workload. It just doesn't like we saw him break down too right, And so that's why I'm hesitant to say that Chandler would be like a true bell cow. But I do think that, again, we're shifting our our thinking in fantasy football right now towards efficiency a lot more than volume in general, because all these backfields are so muddied, and so do I think he can be the most efficient back in that backfield. I would probably bet on that, honestly, like like of those three, but I don't know if the volume would would necessarily be there. So I'm with you overall. Let's talk about some rookies, though, I have a question that I think is really really interesting. There's two wide receivers. You know, Quentin Johnston came out in the first round, and then you have Marvin Mims, who gets drafted in the late second. You know, Sean Payton's first pick. Everyone's making a big deal out of that, and meanwhile, Sean Payton seems to not like him because he's given him eleven routes a game, and so despite the fact that he's leading the league and with like a seven and a half yards per route run. So I have a question for you, though, right now you have the Mike Williams injury, which means Josh Palmer obviously gonna stay. Now he's gonna get elevated to two wide sets. They run a lot of eleven personnel though, so Quentin Johnston now gonna be elevated and seeing a lot more work in that offense just naturally. And then on the flip side, you have Marvin Mims who's also playing in an offense with two other decent wide receivers, but he's not getting the work, but he's shown he's flashed, right, He's shown us what he's capable of. So my question to you, who would you rather have more moving forward? Marvin Mims are Quentin Johnson.

00:42:14
Speaker 2: Oh Man, Marvin Mimms, You're you're pulling at my hardstrings. And I feel like this was kind of a dirty question because my history with TCU wide receivers, I.

00:42:24
Speaker 3: Don't know, if you know, hasn't been great.

00:42:27
Speaker 2: JJ, So you're baiting me to say Quinn Johnson's name, and I don't want.

00:42:32
Speaker 3: To do it.

00:42:34
Speaker 2: But I do think that fantasy gamers are sleeping a little bit on this situation in Quentin Johnston in particular, and I get it He did not start off the preseason looking good. Hell, he hadn't played much for the Chargers this year, and he hasn't done much with the opportunities that he was given.

00:42:55
Speaker 3: But Mike Williams is out for this season. He's out. He's out for the season.

00:43:00
Speaker 2: And while I understand picking up Josh Palmer and spending money on him for your waiver claims, this week, Quinn Johnson was still a first round pick. This is a player who's six foot three, two ten pounds that can run down the field. In training camp when we saw him thriving, it was those downfield targets which have now been vacated, a lot of those vacated by Mike Williams. The fact that Keenan Allen is getting as many air yards as he's getting this year is really the surprise. And I don't know if they want to particularly use him in that role week in and week out. QJ is going to get the opportunity. He's going to get a chance. And for fantasy, like you said, gamers are smarting up now, we are wising up to efficiency is really what you're trying to check. You want to chase that efficiency. However, we are still looking for players JJ who have an opportunity to get an opportunity to score us those fantasy points, right, I need somebody that's going to get the opportunity.

00:43:59
Speaker 3: And for what reason.

00:44:01
Speaker 2: I think Sean Payton must be saving Marvin mems for like when he overhauls the team next year, he doesn't want to subject him to Russell Wilson and company.

00:44:09
Speaker 3: He doesn't want to do.

00:44:10
Speaker 2: That, so he's not playing them. Qj's going to be on the field, and I think what will happen is I've seen in some leagues quin Johnson dropped in re draft league, just dropped. I don't want anything to do with them because we're so used to and we want to expect these rookies to come in from day one and be Jamar Chase. And that's just that is the outlier. So moving forward, if I had to say today, right now, you're putting my feet to fire, I'd be slightly more interested in Quentin Johnston based on that situation. Offensively, they've got a top three quarterback in the NFL in Justin Herbert. Their defense isn't playing good, which should yield some game script in which Quentin Johnson in the passing game will need to be used. We don't know when Austin Eckler's coming back. I hope he's back this weekend. But if he's not, Josh Kelly nor Isaiah Spiller have done a good job of filling in that role.

00:45:00
Speaker 3: Half to throw the ball. QJ. You go get it done, dude, j D. I can't. I can't date of this anymore. Go get it done.

00:45:07
Speaker 2: You were first round pick. You're playing with Justin Herbert, the starting wide receivers out. You were drafted to replace this guy at some point. Go make it happen. Please, qwenton Johnston, Please.

00:45:18
Speaker 1: And I think the answer to is that you want both of these guys rostered right now, right like you want you want Marvin ms roster, and I know that the path to relevancy doesn't seem as clear for him, but you just want good players rostered on your teams. The thing with QJ that I find really fascinating is he was just I mean, I wrote this up my prospect guy too. The dude was just such a volatile prospect, like you could see the ceiling, you could see like his what his top comp of my model was T Higgins. His next comp was Breshad Perriman like that is that is the spectrum that we're looking at right now with Quentin Johnston and the other thing too, I'm not that big of a Like. I got Josh Palmer in a couple of leagues because I wanted that immedia production, you know, and they were kind of deep where you got a lot of flex spots that you can throw wide receivers in there and stuff. So I went after him in a couple of leagues. But I don't think that Josh Palmer is a special player, like I don't. I don't think that he's someone that we have to be overly concerned about, like that Quentin Johnson can't beat out, Like if QJ has the talent and he shows off the next three or four weeks, all of a sudden in two wide receiver sets, we're seeing QJ opposite of Keenan Allen, you know, instead of Josh Palmer. So I think that that's part of his range of outcomes too. So I would probably agree at this point. The more that I'm looking at this and thinking about this, that at least from an upside standpoint, like like a true upside standpoint, because if you think about what like if both of these guys hit, clearly you want the guy that's that's getting the ball from Justin Herbert, right and and clearly I think I think that Courtland Sutton is a bigger threat to Marvin Mims that or even a Judy then Josh Palmer is right. So that's a that's the other that's the other piece to that too. So uh, I think those are a good I know the tough question, but I think I think you talked.

00:47:03
Speaker 2: I think you baited me a little bit to put my neck out there to say another.

00:47:07
Speaker 3: TC wide receiver. But here we are JJ, let's go QJ. Come on, baby, let's do.

00:47:13
Speaker 1: It all right? So, uh, which player could be rookie or nine rookie that's gotten off to a slow start? Do you think that people are sleeping on right now?

00:47:23
Speaker 3: Can I can?

00:47:24
Speaker 2: I can I cheat and say the player that has gotten off to no start at all? And and and we need to be And I'm I've got him ranked as RB fourteen this week, and I feel like I want to put him higher. But Alvin Kamara from the New Orleans Saints, this is one I was on the Underdog Show with Josh Norris before the season started and talking about five players that I couldn't stop drafting.

00:47:45
Speaker 3: It was Alvin Kamara.

00:47:47
Speaker 2: Once the suspension was issued down where he was only gonna miss three games, So okay, I've got Jamal Williams. They'll ride him for a couple of weeks and then when Kamara's back, it's going well, that didn't That didn't turn out to be the case. And then a lot of people thought about Kendre Miller and the excitement for Kendre.

00:48:02
Speaker 3: Miller, which j J.

00:48:04
Speaker 2: If we really think about that situation, we're talking about a rookie running back who didn't test through the process, didn't do anything do OTAs in minicamp because of the mcl injury, was hurt during barely played from his final game at TCU. So to think that he was going to come in and steal Alvin Kamara's work not gonna happen. Saints are probably not going to have Kamara on the roster next year. And you watch this team and offensively they lack speed. It's Chris o'lave and pretty much nothing else. They don't have a lot of speed. Their starting quarterback is hurt, they've got to bring in a backup. It is about to be Alvin Kamara Volume City. I truly believe that if if I were the Saints, knowing that contractually we're probably not going to have this guy on the roster next year. We've got a good enough team to win that division, and it's a tougher division that I think a lot of people thought going into the season. But it's not happening without number forty one. When he gets back on the field, I don't care how much Tony Jones has been playing, how excited you work for Kendre Miller. They're about to load him up for as much work as he can handle, and on an offense with a strong defense, I think this should set Alvin Kamara up for some very positive game scripts, some advantageous opportunities for him to score us some fantasy points. So if you can get him into a deal before it happens, if by some crazy appen jans he's on waivers or the other team doesn't need him, or that team is decimated, that'd be somebody I'd be willing to buy into. And quite frankly, the fact that he's missed the first three games doesn't really bother me much of anything. J Jay's fresh, he should be ready to go. I need him for how many more weeks do we have? Twelve more weeks of fantasy? That's what I need from Alvin Kamara, eleven more weeks of him doing what he needs to do. So that's a player who hasn't done anything. But we need not sleep on the talent, the skill set, and I get it right. People say, well, the past two years he wasn't really efficient. Well, he's playing out. He was playing a role that he had no business playing. When Alvin Kamara was thriving, he was in that complimentary role with an early down banger and getting him opportunities in space. Let Kendre and Tony Jones bang it up the A gap fifteen eighteen times a game. Use Kamara in space. He will be featured on the goal line. There's a lot of opportunity in this New Orleans offense. And I'm really excited for Kamara coming back.

00:50:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jamal Williams on Iron now too, and you know there's obviously still a chance that they would have used him in a goal line role of some sort. The thing with Miller too, he wasn't that he was at least a raw pass catcher entering the league, Hendre, he didn't have that amazing of a profile there. And the other thing with him is that, like I like the potential, and I like the upside, and I like throwing darts at those kinds of players just in general across any sort of format. But he's young. I mean, he's still only twenty one. I mean he's or at least he was twenty one at the NFL Draft, And so you know, that's another piece to this puzzle where it's really easy. And I look last week, I thought that he was gonna get more work than he ended up getting versus Tony Jones, because I don't think Tony Jones is this special of a player. But then I think back and I take a step back, and I'm like, you know what kind of makes sense. They're not just gonna throw this twenty one year old twenty two year old again, however old he is, you know, behind there and just let him run the ball fifteen plus times. I think that he could grow into a role in that offense as the early down banger as you mentioned, and kind of be that guy. But that's sort of the perfect compliment to a guy like Kamara right now.

00:51:25
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, that's and it's it's not even it's it's not even an indictment on that that way of thinking JJ, because yes, if you put Tony Jones, Hell, Jamal Williams and Kendre Miller just right next to each other, I think Kendre is the more talented exactly exactly. But he's a rookie and it's the NFL, and there's gonna be that veteran preference, and let's get the guy Tony Jones for for whatever he's not as a prospect, he's played NFL football and he understands what to do. And I think that's one of the things that we in fantasy are we don't We kind of overlook those situations sometimes and then we take a step back and be like, Okay, well it does make some sense, and it's tough to get right. Revisionist history is always twenty twenty. Your vision is always twenty twenty when you look back. But one of the things that I challenge gamers to do is pay attention to what the teams are telling you. Now, I think there's so much information going on that's happening right in front of our faces JJ, and we will fully close our eyes to it because we don't like brock Party. I think Traylon Burks is good. Well, Kendre Miller was an awesome prospect, but then the team is telling us, nah, man, this is what we plan to do, and we just ignore it.

00:52:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think with rookies because I'm someone who really invests in young players and redraft because I think the market just doesn't totally understand that side of things. But what I found and what I've really found through starting late round fantasy football and having a more one on one connection with listeners and stuff like that and talking to them on a daily basis, is people do not have that much patience when it comes to these players. And so when week eight, week nine hit and I still have Jackson Smith and Jigba right, and he now all of a sudden is the wide receiver two on that team because Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf got hurt or something. Then I'm feeling good that I was patient and I was able to stick with those players. But I do think there's this weird sort of dichotomy within the fantasy space and the way that managers manage these rookies where they assume or they think that these guys should just be getting work right away, and when they don't get work right away, that it's bad news. Kendrey Miller. Maybe Kendrey Miller's a bad example, but like, there are a lot of rookie backs, rookie players who down the stretch will be not necessarily league winners, but very very productive. You know, I don't know if it's gonna be Miller or not, but you've got to stay patient with those guys. But staying patient with those guys means understanding that early in the season you're gonna run into these situations where Tony Jones plays ahead of Kendre Miller. Tony Jones gets more work than Kendry Miller, And it's really hard in the moment to sit back and be like, I don't believe that because talent profile wise, very easy to say, yeah, Kendrick Miller's better than Tony Jones. Of course he's better than Tony Jones. But at the end of the day, man like, if you're patient and you understand that that's the way that teams operate, even devon a chan right week two we could have seen more from him, realistically, they didn't. They didn't give him a lot of work until Savon Ackman was out right. And so it's just this game of patients with rookies. And I think what I'm saying is I'm buying into Alvin Kamara more now that I'm talking through that, you know, with a guy like Kendrick Miller. I think that's a really good call out with with with Kamara. Last question for you, what do you think this is more higher level, more game theory, all that good stuff. What do you think fantasy managers get wrong the most when they're managing their teams in season? I know I just mentioned giving up and not being patient enough, giving up on rookies and stuff like that. Maybe that's your answer, But what do you think that that fantasy managers screw up the most as they're as they're managing their teams.

00:54:58
Speaker 2: Well, part of it was going to be some patients having some patience.

00:55:02
Speaker 3: For those players.

00:55:03
Speaker 2: If you drafted Jackson Smith and jab early in a startup in redraft, then even though he has not started strong or at least the level of expectation that we had, like you knew you drafted a rookie wide receiver. So I think the lack of patients that we're seeing in this very reactionary game will cost some managers this year.

00:55:25
Speaker 3: Because there will be leagues JJ and people.

00:55:27
Speaker 2: You'll get stuff in your mail bag, people will DM tweet you and be like JJ, I dropped JSN after week five and he's on waivers and I've got the last forty percent of my budget.

00:55:37
Speaker 3: Shit, I just unloaded there.

00:55:38
Speaker 2: And we see this year after year of not being patient, just giving up, right, I mean, people are with Jamir Gibbs right now. It's watch what happens tonight. JJ Montgomery is supposed to play if Gibbs doesn't.

00:55:53
Speaker 3: It's so funny. We complained and cried weeks.

00:55:57
Speaker 2: One and we do give them more touches, get seventeen slams up the middle.

00:56:02
Speaker 3: Ah man, I don't like that he's no good.

00:56:04
Speaker 2: It's it's this reactionary non patience that we have, which turns to the bigger point of don't try to chase the past production we're not. Don't chase the fifty pointer for a chain. Listen to this episode, run it back if you need to, and understand the situation is fruitful even if in next week, Jada, if he finishes RB fifty five next week, it will not change my outlook on him moving forward because I understand the bigger picture. I'm not chasing the fifty point performance because it's not gonna happen again probably it probably won't. I'm chasing the situation, the opportunity, the upside, the process. It's one of the simplest things that we've talked about. It's it is truly process over the result. I can live with a because we have no impact on the result, like none, we have no there's nothing. But you can have a sound process in which you follow and then you live with the result. And for me, I'm okay with that. In fantasy, if I make a bad start sit decision, if I make a bad call, but I know the process was solid and we're trusting the data where we're using some context around what we're actually seeing and reading and it doesn't work out. I think most people that consume our content, that are subscribers to our work, they're okay with that. What I'm not okay with is just the gut feel reactionary they're not producing.

00:57:26
Speaker 3: Then week two cut drop.

00:57:28
Speaker 2: No good because what you end up putting your team and your position yourself into is a position where you'll have to go overpay for something that probably won't happen, or you miss out on those fruitful opportunities to plug a JSN in your lineup, or when Kendre Miller is more involved in the offense alongside Camara, you still have them rostered and JJ we talked about patients is good as Bjeon Robinson has been so far this season. I bet you, I bet you one thing. I bet you by week twelve, week thirteen, those Tyler outre Aw's your touch is maybe they shrink a little bit more. Bijon's increases and he's even better down the line. So we talk Kendre, we're talking a Chane Gibbs. With even a player like Bijon Robinson, I don't believe we've even sniffed what his ceiling could be because he is still splitting some work with a veteran running back and we ain't gonna get into ritter into passing attack. But the theory and the and and sort of the strategy around this is is exhibit a level of patience because for if the player is good, I will bet on the fact that when we get later into the season, things get colder, people are banged up. That those players that cream will inevialy Ross at the top.

00:58:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you're really saying, also buy into talent, right, like, buy into look at your talent evaluation. This is something that that I've definitely learned. I mean, if you look like a decade ago at fantasy content, ninety five percent of the content was only situation based. It was not people were not talking about the players themselves, how they create their opportunity. It was always this guy's in a good offense. They're gonna score points this week. You know, this defense has given up x number of Fantasy points to wide receivers. So yeah, just play this wide receiver based strictly on situation. But what I've learned through the years, first and foremost, more than anything, is that if you have that process like you're talking about, you know, how you're prospecting guys, what have you and you And look, obviously people listening to this are not doing what we're doing, right, They're not. They're not sitting there watching film or putting grades together or doing any of that kind of stuff. They don't have a prospect model. I'm not saying that. I'm saying look at other analysts and have a backbone based on what they're doing, and find people that you trust and use that as your process. And I can't tell you how many times people have come to me and they said, I love having your prospect guy to just quick quickly reference players for when you know they start to get make some noise in the league and I can say, oh, did JJ's model like this guy or not? And then you can, you know, like Ronnie Rivers, Right, if Ronnie Rivers gets some opportunity in that rams backfield, people that follow my work probably aren't going to be that aggressive off the waiver wire and getting Ronnie Rivers because he had an eleventh percentile prospect score, you know what I mean. So that kind of stuff is really really important, is to not give up on these players too early, especially especially when their potential generational or you know, some of the best players we've seen over the last three or four years, like a JSN you know, someone like that, obviously a Bijon especially, don't let and look Tyler Algier is a good player. He's not a bad running back, right, but he's not Bijon Robinson. And so eventually, especially if Atlanta's competitive, eventually that's gonna start to flip a little bit more as we see every single year with all of these guys. Right, this is amazing. I'm so glad we got to finally finally do a show together.

01:00:49
Speaker 3: Man me too, Man me too. This was awesome. This was awesome.

01:00:52
Speaker 1: It was great. Why don't you let everyone know where they can find you.

01:00:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, you could find me on X since we're since we're calling everybody's correct names on x' at RAYGIQ. You can go to Destinationdebie dot com, Destination Wie YouTube where Wake Up with Rags show every Monday, Wednesday Friday at eight am Eastern Standard time. We just have a good time, try to bring some fun to the game. I want to entertain. I want to provide some actional information, but more importantly, I want people to have a good time when they tap into the content on Destination Debbie JJ, you have been somebody that man.

01:01:24
Speaker 3: I went back and listened to my very.

01:01:26
Speaker 2: First podcast that I did back in twenty eighteen when I started DD. You were the inspiration for my first podcast. So you've got your after every segment. You've got the little thing that the little sounder that plays to get you. So I did like airplane things like it was like dang, knowing the first and I was trying to do my show like JJ, I swear.

01:01:48
Speaker 3: To you do it.

01:01:48
Speaker 2: I talked about this on an episode, but I say that to say that to finally be able, and I had to switch it out.

01:01:54
Speaker 3: I couldn't do it like I had to be me. I could not do it like you didn't work for very long.

01:01:58
Speaker 2: But to be on your platform, to watch everything that you're doing in this space, man, I just want to tell you from the bottom of my heart how much I appreciate your content, your work, your demeanor, how you carry yourself and your business on this platform. Man, this was this was fun for me. I literally canceled some work meetings to be here with you because it was that important to me to be on the show. So thank you for having me on your platform.

01:02:23
Speaker 1: Man, I appreciate you, and right back at you, I know, I mean, you're crushing it. You guys are doing awesome work with wake Up. I love I love tuning in whenever I can. It's just been great. It's been great, you know, getting a chat with you, at least offline. You know, for so many years now, so I'm really glad that we got to do the show. As always, everyone, you can find me on x at late Round, QB. You can find everything I'm offering over on lateround dot com, and as always, thanks for tuning in.

01:03:00
Speaker 3: Two