685: 15 Transactions for Week 5

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host jaj zach j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachareson in this episode six hundred and eighty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Thursday Nights officially belong to the NFL, and fandel and Amazon Prime Video have teamed up to bring you more ways to win this NFL season, introducing the Prime Video Pick Them, a free to play pick Them contest centered around one of the most exciting events of the week, Thursday Night Football. Here's how it works. You'll be given ten questions to answer about Thursday Night's game. Fans who answer the most questions correctly will want to share fifteen thousand dollars in cash prizes. It's that easy. Be sure to tune into Amazon Prime Videos Thursday Night Football Week five matchup to keep track of your score. No purchase necessary, Agent location restrictions apply, void where prohibited. See full terms at FanDuel dot com. It's a fifteen transactions day. Let's get to it and Isaiah Pachecko. So last week on the show, I sat here and talked about Jerick McKinnon being a low key ad off the waiver wire. I think from a process standpoint, that was fine. McKinnon had out snapped Clyde Edwards Hilaire in both weeks two and three, and he tied cech and Snaps in Week one. Now, there were some reasons for that, but it still made sense to throw a dart at McKinnon because in the playoffs last year we saw McKinnon do totally fine as the team's lead back. What if he grabbed hold to a larger portion of this offense at the very least, jerck McKinnon sat there as a handcuff, right, But then Sunday Night happened and everything changed. We're back to square one. We're back to adding Isaiah Pachecko. Let's first talk about Pacheco himself. Pachecko looked good in my prospect model versus how the consensus viewed him. It's not like the prospect model loved him. He was a seventh round pick. It's impossible for a model to love a seventh round running back. But he had a positive draft capital delta, and what that tells you is that he was probably underdrafted. He should have gone earlier than where he went. Because he had underrated collegiate production and he had the best way adjusted forty times in this class. He was and he still is, a very explosive running back. In my model. His top comparable was Damian Williams, a player who thrived in Andy Reid's offense. Now, with that being said, Isaiah Pachecko and Jerck McKinnon have not been the steady piece of this Kansas City offense this year. In that backfield, it's been Clyde Edwards Hilaire. Yes, Cech was out snapped by McKinnon in weeks one through three, but he played a season high fifty five point eight percent of Kansas City's offensive snaps against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Pachecko tied McKinnon in Week four with seventeen offensive snaps. I think we're now sitting at a point where predicting what's gonna happen in Andy Reid's head probably is not the right approach, So instead I'm leaning on talent here. Clyde Edwards Hilaire is not on your waiver wire. We can't add Cech, But Pachecko looked really good on Sunday, like really really good, and now on the season he has a forty six point four percent success rate. That's defined as the percentage of runs that end up being positive expected points runs. That's according to number Fires Expected Points model. A forty six percent success rate is good. And don't get me wrong, Clyde Edwards Alaire has been great too. I'm not denying that at all. He's actually performed even better than Pacheco this year. But what I'm doing here in adding Pachecko is saying, look, this is a seventh round rookie who's starting to look the part within this backfield that's been a split backfield this season. Rookies tend to do better during the second half of the season, and I think anyone who watched that game you could see Isaiah Pacheco's explosion. He runs angry. He's honestly a really good compliment to Clyde Edwards a Laire. So instead of trying to guess how Andy Reid's going to split up this backfield, let's just lean into talent, let's lean into upside. Let's add Isaiah Pachecko sell or hold Clyde Edwards Hilaire. Now, I'm sure a lot of you guys are having deja vu, right, now because this exact transaction was listed two weeks ago and since then Clyde Edwards Lair scored fourteen point nine and twenty one point four PPR points. Now. To be fair, a huge piece of this transaction a couple of weeks ago surrounded the idea the market may not actually be buying Cech, and that's actually still true today. If everyone calls a player a cell, is he really a cell? Is there really a selling opportunity? Because the crazy thing is, and I went back and I looked after week two of my rest of the season rankings, I had Clyde Edwards Laiir as the RB seventeen. That might have actually been a head of consensus. And that's sort of the problem with these buy and sell transactions. Each week. I'm not making an excuse I had Clyde Edwards Hilaire as a seller a hold after week two. I'm not running away from that. What I'm saying is these transactions are so important to not just headline read whether you're getting the newsletter or whether you're listening to the show each week, because on one hand, Cech is a clear sell because he's almost definitely not going to maintain this scoring pace. But on the other hand, when I say trade them away, my RB seventeen ranking might have been above consensus. There's an issue there. So this transaction, like the one a couple of weeks ago, completely depends on what you can get in return. That's the case with a lot of these transactions, but some of them are more obvious than others. The thing is, statistically, we cannot bank on Edwards Zelayer's fantasy production continuing at this rate. Before Monday Night Football this week, he ranks twenty eighth and running back rush attempts since seventeenth and running back targets. He's played a smaller percentage of his team snaps this year than Jad McKissick has played for the Commanders. He hasn't been the team's primary goal line back. He's seeded third down snaps to Jerk McKinnon for most of the season, and according to Pro Football Focuses Expected Fantasy points formula, Ceh should be ranked closer to RB twenty right now. And it's not that he's been bad. I just talked about him having a good success rate. He's looking more and more like the player that we thought he'd be entering the league. He's just converting right now at an unsustainable rate. Now, let me give you a prime example of this. Let me give you an example of what I'm talking about here. Edwards a Laire has three targets of the goal line this season, so that's within the five yard line. He's converted each of those targets to a touchdown. Last season, no running back had more than two goal line receiving touchdowns across the entire season, and the same goes for the twenty twenty season. Three goal line receiving touchdowns according to Brandon Godola at number five, it's only happened twice at the running back position since twenty sixteen. Edwards a Laire makes that three times, and Edwards Alaire has only played four games. We can sit back and we can say, oh, this offense is different, and it is to some degree, but it's not three goal line receiving touchdowns for every four games played different. There's a difference between these two things. He can exceed expectation. He will exceed expectation versus an average running back given his environment. It's just not to this degree. If you can sell cech at a mid range RB one price, where he's currently ranked. Go for it. The offense will carry him, and he should still be valuable from here on out. He's just not a top five back. It's okay to say that. It's okay to say that Cech is playing a little bit over his head right now. It doesn't mean that he's unusable, it doesn't mean that he's a bad fantasy asset. It just means that what he's doing right now is likely not sustainable in his range of outcomes. Is still a low end RB one season. Of course, I'm still gonna have him ranked as an RB two. That's where I've had him basically since Week one. But if you can sell him for this high end RB one price tag, you should do it now. I know that that's not possible in a lot of leagues. A lot of people recognize this regression, and a lot of people are ranking Cech way too low. In my opinion, I'm probably still gonna be higher on Cech than the consensus, at least compared to other fantasy analysts. I'm just making note right now that he's probably not gonna be a top five running back rest of season based on this current usage. He's played great, but they're still splitting that backfield. Add Mike Boone. So unfortunately, Javonte Williams suffered an ACL tear against the Raiders on Sunday. He's out for the season. Melvin Gordon the backup, He didn't see that much work after Williams got hurt. Now, that could have been because he entered Week four with a neck injury, or it could have been due to his fumble and he has fumbling issues. So regardless of all that, Mike Boone, the team's RB three. He stepped in and he played fifteen snaps to Gordon's eight after that Williams injury. Now, the Broncos have used their running backs a lot this season in the passing game, only the Chargers have targeted their running backs at a higher rate. And since this is likely going to be somewhat of a split backfield, I think Boone is a very good ad this week. Hold Miles Sanders. I think a lot of people are sitting here right now. If you have Miles Sanders, you're thinking I've got to sell him high, right. I don't think it's that obvious. I think he's much closer to a Holt. Now that's partially because the fantasy football market doesn't like Miles Sanders at all, but it's also because there's a lot of goods surrounding him. In that situation. The Eagles entered the year with one of the easiest schedules in football. They're also playing really well, and they have a great offensive line. That combination should mean a lot of positive game scripts from Miles Sanders moving forward. Now, Sanders saw sub sixty percent running back rush share in Week one, but over his last three games, he's averaged a seventy six point one percent running back rush share per game. That's a great number. His target share hit twelve point five percent this past week, another good number. Now really have an RB one ceiling, probably not just giving the way the Eagles generally use their running backs, but I don't think anyone's really expecting that. That's why you can't really sell high. I think overall, he's probably in a much better spot than most people realize. Ad George Pickens, so there wasn't a huge change in pickens row participation this past week, but he definitely saw a difference in production. He hit a thirty two percent target share against the Jets in Week four, and he's now increased his target share number each week this season, going from eight point one percent to nine point one percent, to twenty one point nine percent, and then thirty two percent this past week. Kenny Pickett could be Pittsburgh's starter moving forward. That should be a plus when looking at how they were performing under Mitch Trubisky. Now, overall, rookie quarterbacks are not good for their personnel from a fantasy perspective, but we're not comparing any ordinary quarterback versus a rookie quarterback. We're comparing Mitch Trubisky to a rookie quarterback, and Trubisky has not been good. This is an upgrade for the Steelers offense. More than likely, Pickett's final stat line is going to show three interceptions, but one of those interceptions was a hail mary and the other two at least hit the pass catcher's hands. According to Next Gen Stats, Pickett had a plus seventeen point three completion percentage over expected. That's a number that Mitch Trubisky has not even come close to this year. So Pickens is still out there. In sixty one percent of Yahoo leagues, the talent is there, The quarterback change might be there. You should add them this week by Gabe Davis. I'll be honest with you, guys, I'm not like jumping for joy over Gabriel Davis right now. I don't think he's this like super super obvious by low candidate. We have a three game sample with Davis this season. In Week one, everything looked pretty normal. He had a sixteen percent target chair. He converted four of his five targets into eighty eight yards in a touchdown. It was a very Gabe Davis line. Then there was an injury that sidelined him in Week two, and then after that he had a six point seven PPR point performance, and then this past week it was two point three PPR points. In weeks three and four, Davis average a target chair per game of just nine point seven percent. Now, I'm far from a Gabe Davis truther. I'm not one of those people that thinks that he's amazing. I'm not one of those people that said avoid him at all costs. This year, it was possible to live in the middle with Gabe Davis, and I was one of those people. But with that being said, I do think that we've got to cut him at least a little bit of slack here. He was coming off an injury in that Week three game and maybe that was still hindering him in Week four a little bit. But regardless, that poor weather in that game against Baltimore definitely hurt the passing game a little litle bit. So, if you want the optimistic view, Davis is out there playing. He's led the Buffalo wideouts and snaps played in each of their last two games, and the same goes with routes run two. We know there's a boom or bust nature to his game. It's just that after a miserable start to the season, you might be able to send a low ball offer to acquire Davis. He's still running a ton of routes in a Josh Allen led offense. Things should get at least a little bit better at Isaiah McKenzie and Khalil Shakir. So, speaking of Bill's wide receivers, there's a chance that we see Khalil Shakir get more run this week. Jamison Crowder is now out indefinitely with a broken ankle, and the team's other slot guy, Isaiah McKenzie, is dealing with a concussion that allowed Khalil Shaki to play fifteen snaps against Baltimore. He caught both of his targets for twenty three yards. Now that being said, Isaiah McKenzie would be a great ad if he was healthy because this year he's mostly been splitting slot work with Jamison Crowder, so he now has a chance to become a full time player. But if he can't go, Shakier becomes a very intriguing option against the Steelers in Week five. Mike Tomlin led teams have struggled mightily against slot receivers and Shaki was an undervalued player in this year's draft according to my prospect model. One of his comps actually in my model was Cooper Cup. So for the long term, I think Mackenzie's probably the ad, assuming that he can get right. But Shakiir is a nice play this week potentially, and maybe Shakira's role grows too. Add Tyler Algier so Corneral Patterson was banged up against the Browns on Sunday. Tyler Algier played almost forty four percent of Atlanta's snaps, carried the ball ten times for eighty four yards. He had a fifty percent success rate, and he caught his only target for twenty yards. It was a low passing volume day for Atlanta, which was very, very frustrating, but Algier ran nine routes on twenty dropbacks. Patterson is now on short term I are he'll be out for at least four weeks. Chances are Algier is going to be the top back for the Falcons with Caleb Huntley being sprinkled in, so he should be rostered this week. But I also want to say, if you want to sneaky add this week, you could also look at Damian Williams. Remember him. Williams is eligible to return from his rib injury in week six, so you'd have to stash him for a week. But he opened up the season and are small sample size. As the Falcons lead back, almost everyone in your league is going to rightfully be looking at Tyler Algier and you should too. You should try to add Algier, but don't dismiss Damian Williams. I bet you can get Williams off the waiver wire this week for like a dollar. Sell Rashad Penny. Look, it was a perfect spot for Penny in Week four. The Lions entered the week as the top opponent for running backs and adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. They'd given up four top twenty performances in three games. Penny then went off. He ran for one hundred and fifty one yards on seventeen carries. Penny's peripherals, though, are still not great. Since Kenneth Walker entered the lineup in Week two. Penny's average a running back rush air per game of sixty one point six percent. That's a number hit by almost twenty running backs so far this year, and he's all alsill lost work through the air. Walker has seven targets to Pennies two over their last three games. That's not the kind of usage that you want in fantasy. So coming off such a huge game, you may have an opportunity to sell high. I mean, there's a non zero chance that Walker ends up seeing more work as this season goes on. We should probably expect that. And is Seattle gonna put up forty eight points a week? Probably not, considering they put up forty seven during their first three weeks. Combined. Ad Devin DuVernay Rashad Bateman's dealing with a foot injury that explains why he didn't play in the fourth quarter on Sunday. DuVernay has been the team's number two wide receiver by a pretty healthy margin this year. He's run eighty three routes this season. According to PFF, DeMarcus Robinson is at sixty six. That's who's in third. So if Batman miss his time, DuVernay's going to improve on that eleven and a half percent target chair ad Rashad White. So this transaction was originally going to go to Colts running back Dion Jackson, but not only could Jonathan Taylor play on Thursday, it's looking like it would be a committee regardless. Rashad White makes a lot more sense. White played thirty seven and a half percent of Tampa Bay snaps on Sunday night. That was a season high for him. He ended up catching all five of his targets for fifty yards through the air while running three times for six yards and a touchdown on the ground. My prospect model really liked him because it's a very very good pass catching back out of the backfield. His top comp in my model was David Johnson. So there's a chance that we just see White have some flex appeal when by Weeks hit. But he also has the upside of being a handcuff to Leonard Fournette, and by the way, Leonard Fournette has n't played a full season in the NFL since he entered the league White's roster. In twenty seven percent of Yahoo leagues, he should be claimed this week. Sell TJ. Hockinson. I'm sure none of you guys are surprised to hear me say to sell TJ. Hawkinson after he put up forty PPR points this past week, or at least almost forty. He caught eight of twelve targets for one hundred and seventy nine yards and two touchdowns. His thirty point eight per cent target share was by far a season high, after having shares of eighteen point nine percent, twenty point six percent, and ten point eight percent over his first three games. But the obvious thing that was going on this past week is that pass catchers for the Lions were banged up. They didn't have Amnara Saint Brown, they didn't have DeAndre Swift, and they didn't have DJ Shark. And Detroit faces Seattle team that's been horrible against tight ends to start the year. Now they rank as the easiest tight end matchup in adjusted points allowed because of this TJ. Hawkinson blow up. But even entering the week they were third the third easiest matchup. Even Kyle Pitts had a good performance against Seattle, So I think this is likely more of a recommendation for casual leagues. But yeah, TJ. Hockinson, he's a cell candidate. Add Mo ali Cox, so after a rough start, things are beginning to turn around for Moe ali Cox. He saw a couple of scores on a sixteen point two percent target share in week four, and that came after running the most routes of the position on the team. Across weeks one and two, ali Cox was behind Kylin Grantson in routes run forty eight to thirty eight, but over the last couple of weeks, ali Cox has separated himself, running twenty more routes in Grantson. So considering ali Cox's performance, we may end up seeing more of him moving forward. I would just rather be a week ahead, so Adam now add Jameis Winston. It seemed like Winston was at least somewhat close to playing this past week in London. I think that we should expect more practice from him pre week five, and if he goes, he's a great streamer. The Saints get the Seahawks, a team that was just torched by backup pass catchers for the Lions. On the season, Seattle ranks third and adjusted points alloted to the quarterback position, and they've given up the third most fifteen plus air yard completions on the year. That should be music to Jameis Winston's ears. Add the Miami Dolphins defense. So Dolphins are three and a half point road favorites this week against Jets according to Fandals Sportsbook, and the game is a pretty lousy forty four and a half point over under New York and Zach Wilson turned it over three times against the Steelers in Week four, and the Jets have been a top ten matchup this year according to adjusted fantasy points allowed. So I think Miami should get the job done. As a streaming defense. That's going to do it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get to subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out Lateround dot com. Join the free newsletter from my fifteen transactions column every week and join the patreon. The patreon has the rest of season rankings, weekly rankings, a great discord community, and much more. Thanks everyone, I will talk to you tomorrow