313: 15 Transactions for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Jake zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode three hundred and thirteen of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I feel like I put myself out there with this fifteen transactions episode each week because I'm not just talking about the waiver wire or players to add to your roster. That's looking only at the positives. Negativity bias doesn't exist when you're saying good things about players. What's tough about this episode each week is talking about players to sell, because when you a fantasy manager take that advice and actually trade away that player, it's a punch in the gut. When that player then performs and you remember those moments more and it's then traced back to me, the person who gave that advice. Today's episode has more sell candidates than usual, and just to be real with you, it makes me a little nervous for that very reason. I want you guys to win, but then to make things worse. This week's episode features sell candidates that I've talked about before. So not only could I sink your fantasy team with my advice, but I'm essentially doubling down on some players. That just invites the haters. Now, people may view that as me being stubborn, but I consciously try to not be an analyst with takelock. It's a very big deal to me. I really don't care. I try not to care if my opinions change on players with new information. I care more about being informative and objective with my analysis. I care more about the process. So remember that as you listen today's show. I promise I don't hate players. I'm trying to use the information I have to be helpful. I'm not trying to lock into a take that I had in September just to say I told you so. That's got to be the dumbest way to do things. But before getting into this week's transactions, I wanted to send another reminder to you guys to check out Odds Fire. It's a odds comparison that Number Fire's engineers developed, and it's the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers. And the regulated US market, compare odds, quickly, identify the best value, and even examine first party FanDuel data all in one place. Never settle, always get the best odds. Check out the experience for free now at number fire or at oddsfire dot com. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler Sell Derrick Henry. Yeah, I know, guys, I talked about Derrick Henry last week on the show, and Dereck Henry went absolutely nuts against the chiefs. Now. To be fair, I did say the following of my fifteen Transactions column last week, I said it should be noted that Tennessee gets Kansas City this week, creating a good matchup for Henry on paper. If you want to wait to sell him, it's understandable. But Henry's value also will diminish if he doesn't perform. So hopefully you waited, because Henry finished the week with thirty three Fantasy points that gave him his third top ten performance in his last four games. I know a lot of you are probably saying this is when Derrick Henry really pays off. Maybe that's true, but I don't buy into narratives like that. I think those narratives get you into trouble more often than they don't. The truth is Henry's continue to outperform in the touchdown column even more than he has historically. As we all know, touchdowns correlate strong lady yards. The more yards a player has, the more touchdowns he usually scores. Now, context is always needed with that type of analysis, but Henry's yardage total tells us that he should have three point four fewer touchdowns than he currently has. Now. Speaking of that context, players in good offenses can outplay the simple yards to touchdowns conversion. But let's not pretend that Tennessee has this great offense. They've scored thirty or more points just twice this year, and even when you only look at games that Ryan Tannehill has started, the Titans have been completely average in yards per drive, and that includes Sunday's performance where they look decent against Kansas City. And as I mentioned last week, Derek Henry is not even seeing that many high leverage touches. Through Week ten, He's had six goal line rushes that ranks outside the top twenty in the league. And then, to top it all off, we know he's not involved that much as a receiver. He's hit a single game target share of ten percent or better only twice this season. Now, the Titans have a bye this week, so if you need to win now, Derrick Henry is a good Selle candidate, but I think he is even if you need to win later as well, because in the fantasy playoffs, as I mentioned last week, they get Houston in New Orleans. That's in weeks fifteen and sixteen. Those are two tough matchups for an opposing running back ad JD McKissick. The Lions lost ty Johnson to a concussion on Sunday that allowed McKissick to play more snaps than usual. He ended Week ten with about a seventy percent snap rate, which was by far the most on that team, and he also led the team in carries, and then he had a sixteen percent target share which yielded seven targets. Now, he's not a running back who's likely to get a ton of early down work, but if TYD Johnson misses time, because it could be viable as a flex option in PPR formats by D. D. Westbrook. Now, I talked about this a little bit on the Mailbag episode last week, but some of you were a little concerned about how the Jacksonville offense would function for Nick Foles and what that meant for the pass catchers on that team. But the thing is, it's not like the Jags had this powerhouse offense with Gardner Minshew under center. On the season. Jacksonville's just slightly above average and yards per drive and they ran nineteenth in scoring great per drive. And I think that with Nick Foles back, we could see a little bit more love for Dedee Westbrook. Dde Westbrook played one preseason game this year. In that game, he saw seven targets and it was with Nick Foles under center. Now that might not matter at all, that could be completely irrelevant, but at the very least, I think that we should feel good about Ddee Westbrook with Nick Foles under center. I don't think it's gonna get any worse. But then on top of that, like I talked about last week with DJ Shark, look at the Jaguars fantasy playoff schedule. In Week fifteen they get Oakland and week sixteen they get Atlanta. Those are two teams teams that have been very, very friendly against opposing wide receivers this year. They've allowed the third most and the sixth most Fantasy points respectively to the position by Leonard Fournette. So because the Jags are probably gonna be able to move the ball better in those Week fifteen and sixteen contests against Oakland and Atlanta, that means Leonard Fournette could see more scoring opportunities. And as we know, that's a big deal for Leonard Fournette because he's only found the end zone once this season. Fournette's yardage totals, he has eight hundred and thirty one rushing yards and two hundred and ninety five receiving yards. Those yardage totals have historically yielded seven point two touchdowns for a running back when you look at data over the last five years, that's six point two more than what Leonard Fournette currently has from a yards to touchdowns conversion standpoint, Leonard Fournette is the biggest positive regression candidate in the NFL right now. But as we know, like I just talked about with Dede Westbrook, the Jags offense isn't anything special, so as a result, they rank thirtieth in goal line plays run this year, so that has hurt Fournette's touchdown potential. So maybe he shouldn't have six point two more, but he should definitely have more touchdowns. And the thing is with Nick Foles under center, now, he's a little bit easier to buy because there's this ambiguity as to what if Nick Foles is a lot better than Gardner Minshew, what if the Jaguars offense really moves the ball down the field all of a sudden, Leonard Fournette is a league winning running back. Hold or sell David Johnson. I don't know if you guys watched that Cardinals Bucks game on Sunday, but David Johnson, as I talked about in my column this week, David Johnson looked like he was running in wet cement. And I talked about this last week on the podcast. But I don't think David Johnson has looked all that great as a runner all season long. We've just really seen it highlighted, I feel like of late, because Kenyan Drake is this really athletic running back. You know, sometimes in fantasy football you have to sell low, and that's sort of what we're looking at with David Johnson right now. In Week ten, Kenyan Drake out attempt at Johnson ten to five. He saw seven targets to David Johnson's won, and he played fifteen more snaps and flat out, you guys, Kenyan Drake was the better running back versus David Johnson and it wasn't close. So someone in your league still believes Johnson is this locked in RB two from here on out, you can sell David Johnson. If not, there's probably not a reason to let David Johnson go because we do know that David Johnson has some upside, especially as a receiver. So if you're holding onto David Johnson, that means that you're holding on to hope that his performance on Sunday had to do with his injury and just getting acclimated to the football field again, that that's why he was so ineffective. I'm not that confident that that's the reason why, but that's the hope that you have to hold on to. Add Darius Slayton. No Sterling Shepherd, no Evan Ingram. Darius Slayton went bonkers. He played ninety three percent of New York snaps, he saw almost thirty eight percent of the team's targets, and he turned that into a ten catch one d and twenty one yard two touchdown performance. There's still question marks surrounding Sterling Shepherd and Evan Ingram, so Darius Slayton should be added off the waiver wire this week by Alvin Kamara. So the Saints offense really really underperformed in Week ten. It was probably the most shocking performance by an offense all season long. But Alvin Kamara did still come through in PPR formats with a decent performance. He finishes a top twelve RB one entering this game. There were some question marks about his potential usage given how Latavius Murray played while Alvin Kamara was sidelined, But Kamara played seventy eight point three percent in New Orleans offensive snaps, which was the second highest rate of the season. His running back rush share was the lowest of the year at forty four point four percent, but he saw a twenty three percent target share. That's a really good number. That's right in line with what he was seeing the last time he was healthy. So in other words, if New Orleans offense had performed, I think Kamara likely would have been a high end RB one this past week. The scoring opportunities just weren't there, but the peripheral numbers absolutely were, and I think that Alvin Kamara can give you solid numbers down the stretch. And there are plenty of people out there who are very worried about Latavius Murray, and I think it's understandable. But even with Murray playing a role like we saw with mark Ingram in years past, Kamera can still produce higher end RB one numbers in this offense. And keep in mind, you guys, Kamara is a positive touchdown regression candidate. Based on his rushing and receiving yardage totals, he should have two point three more touchdowns than he currently has. Add Brian Hill. So, in that same game between the Saints and the Falcons, Devonte Freeman exited with a foot injury that left the backfield to Brian Hill. Hill ended the game playing over half of Atlanta snaps and he had sixty four and a half percent of the team's running back attempts. Those are both really strong numbers. Now, the Falcons backfield hasn't been all that great for fantasy this year. They ran twenty sixth in points per game as a team, but any running back with the chances see touches deserves to be rostered hold or by Odell Beckham. A lot of you hit me up this past week asking what the heck to do with Odell Beckham, and I think that the answer to this is kind of boring because it depends. I do think that selling him right now would be selling him at a low point, and yes, I do believe that this is a low point. Beckham hasn't scored since Week two, even though he's averaging nearly nine targets per game and a twenty six point four percent target share, he should have more touchdowns than he currently has. But I do think that the schedule in the short term is a little bit worrisome because Cleveland gets Pittsburgh in two of their next three games. Pittsburgh's defense has been very strong since they got Minka Fitzpatrick. They've allowed just two top twenty four wide receiver two performances over this time. That's since Week three, so that's not a cake matchup. And we know that the Steelers can generate pressure as well. But if you want to look further into the future, if you want to look into the fantasy playoffs for instance, or as we inch towards the Fantasy playoffs, Cleveland still gets Miami, Arizona, and Cincinnati. Those are three very beatable defenses. So that's why if you need to win the short term, Odell Beckham probably is more of a hold. But if you're looking down the stretch and into the playoffs, Odell Beckham might be a bye. Add Kaylin Bilage. So we have a one game sample now of this Dolphins backfield without Kenyan Drake and Mark Walton, and in that game, Kaylin Bilage saw a lot of work. He played eighty one point eight percent of the team snaps. That's great, hooray. But he also saw twenty carries and ran for forty three rushing yards and then he had two receiving yards on four receptions. Now I've talked about this before, but I don't think Kaylen Bilage is that good of a running back and if he continues to play like this, he might lose his job. So that's why Miles Gaskin should be on your radar as we approach the end of the season. But Kayln Bilage should be rostered right now given this workload, that snap rate is really high. Sell Austin Eckler, So those of you with Austin Eckler who have been starting him over the last few weeks, you know that you've been pretty lucky. He's ranked outside the top fifteen and weekly running back scoring in each of the last three games, and that's while finding the end zone twice. Without those touchdowns, he'd be in trouble. And he only has nine total targets over this time. And the problem is the Chargers are getting Melvin Gordon more and more involved. That's hurting Austin Eckler. Eckler's failed to reach a fifty percent snapshare in each of his last two and over his last three his target chair is hovered around the ten percent mark. It was almost double that during the first seven weeks of the season. Now, I do think Eckler is gonna be usable in PPR leagues, especially if and when the Chargers are trailing, and that could happen this week. They're facing the Chiefs. So maybe, like Derrick Henry last week, selling Austin Eckler right now isn't the best idea. But what happens if Austin Eckler doesn't perform. It's a great matchup for him, But if he doesn't do well, all of a sudden, Austin Eckler is even harder to sell, So I really wanted to make this transaction to say that Austin Eckler is trending in the wrong direction. Things can turn around quickly because he's a really good football player. But things aren't trending right for Austin Eckler ad Deebo Samuel. So things were looking good for Deebo Samuel actually entering Week ten's contests against Seattle. I actually talked about him on last week's Matchup show, but during his three games leading up to that game against the Seahawks, he had seen at least a fourteen percent target share in each of those contests while running the second most wide receiver routes for the forty nine ers, behind only Emmanuel Sanders. While Emmanuel Sanders left Monday Night's game with an injury, which allowed Deebo Samuel to have a very big game. He caught eight passes for one hundred and twelve yards. So if Emmanuel Sanders misses time, Deebo Samuel could become a decent wide receiver for your fantasy squad. Even if Emmanuel Sanders is back, I would be stashing Deebo Samuel. By Chris Godwin. So after finishing with four top six performances across the first six weeks of the season and looking like a true league winning wide receiver, Chris Godwin has ranked outside the top twenty and weekly wide receiver scoring in each of his last three games, but I'm not that concerned. He said a twenty percent target chair in each of those contests, and he's got a pair of targets from within the ten yard line during that span as well. Mike Evans has four. Mike Evans has been the better fantasy asset, but Chris Godwin has still been fine, and I think that Godwin and Mike Evans could be really intriguing fantasy playoff wide receivers as well. The Buccaneers face the Lions and the Texans in weeks fifteen and sixteen. Both of those teams have surrendered top ten numbers to wide receivers this season in PPR leagues. Add Kyle Allen, So if Derek Carr is on your waiver wire, I think Derek Carr would be the best streaming option for you this week, but he's rostered in forty five percent of Yahoo leagues, which makes Kyle Allen a viable option. Allen's at home this week. He's going up against Atlanta, who was good in Week ten, but over the larger sample size, they've kind of not been very good. They've allowed the six most fantasy points to opposing passers this year, they're giving up the fourth highest yards per attempt rate, and only four teams have generated quarterback pressure at a lower rate than the Falcons, and opposing quarterbacks are averaging over five fantasy points per game above expectation when they face Atlanta. Fandel's Sportsbook has the Falcons Panthers game this week at a fifteen and a half point over under, and Carolina is a six and a half point favorite, so that gives the Panthers a nice implied team total, which really boosts the value of Kyle Allen as a streaming option. Add the Oakland Raiders defense. The Raiders are at home this week. They're double digit favorites, and they're facing a Bengals team that's allowed opposing defenses to rank in the top ten and weekly scoring during six of nine nice games played this year. Oakland's been bad getting the quarterback this year. They're dead last, and pressure rate their tenth worst, and sack rate but it's the right matchup for a streaming defense to thrive, so you can absolutely pick them up and use them. The sixteen transaction that you can't get in my weekly fifteen Transactions column over on number fire dot com this week is one that you've heard before, but it's to sell Aaron Jones. Now, let me explain Aaron Jones should be an RB one from here on out. I think I said as much the last time that I talked about selling Jones. He's performed basically in his own tier behind Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. Though, and his Fantasy points per game right now, which is twenty one point one in PPR formats, I don't think he'll be able to continue at that pace. Let's begin with the obvious place to start, and that's touchdown regression. He scored three more times this past week, and now based on his yardage total, he has over eight more touchdowns than he should have. Again, you guys know by now that context is needed. It's necessary, But even when he provide some of that context, he's overperforming. For instance, ESPN dot Com Mike clay is Opportunity adjusted Touchdown Metric or OTD still had Jones with five point two more touchdowns than he should have entering week ten, and considering he scored three more times, that number is only going to skyrocket. So okay, cool, he shouldn't be scoring at this high a rate. But there's more. Actually, Jones only played half of Green Bay's snaps on Sunday. He didn't see a single target. We'll see if that receiving workload is some sort of trend or not. But scoring at this high of a rate while also not playing workhorse type snaps is a big red flag. And then there's the fact that they have a bye this week and then they'll face San Francisco when they're off of their by So if you have Aaron Jones and you absolutely need a win, now would be the time to sell in order to win in the short term. You know, it's such a bizarre feeling talking about Aaron Jones in this way since I was so into him when he was coming out of the draft and this podcast became an Aaron Jones truther podcast. It still is. But to come full circle, like I said at the top, I'm just looking at the information in front of me and explaining what it says. He may end up as the RB three this year, but there's plenty of reason to believe that he's gonna produce more like a mid range to a lower end one from here on out. That's gonna do it. For today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. Talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show