984: Mailbag - How to Utilize Player Comps, Ashton Jeanty's Testing, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ ZACHERAJJ zacheron. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode nine and eighty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before we getting the mailback questions this week, I want to send another reminder about the Late Round Prospect Guide. The guides one hundred and sixty pages of nerdy prospect information. You get to find out what goes into my prospect and year two models. You'll get right ups on eighty running back and wide receiver prospects, and there's about forty year two profile right ups too. There's rankings and tiers and so much more. Best of all, it's updated after the draft, Like immediately after the draft. You'll have new write ups relevant players, tight end zapp scores, updated rankings, and more. On the final day of the NFL Draft. It'll all be finished that night. That way, you're going to be set for your rookie drafts. Learn more about it, get yourself a copy by heading to Lateround dot com. And for the record, I know that most of you aren't necessarily interested in buying fantasy football content. That's totally understandable. It's not for everyone, but I'll say that if you're consuming this podcast, if my content helps you out, do me a favor and still head to lateround dot com and subscribe to the newsletter. That's absolutely free. It takes ten seconds to do it, and it helps me get my work across to more people, which in turn helps the late round fantasy football business. So I'd greatly greatly appreciate that support. Again, that's all on lateround dot com. The first question this week is an email from Ryan. It says, Hey, JJ, I've listened to you for years. I think you're the very best in the game with your data driven approach to fantasy football, which is why your ash and gente elite RB one ranking confuses me. He didn't test his athletic metrics the combine or it is pro day, no bench press, no forty time vertical broad jump cone, et cetera. That makes me think he's hiding something, perhaps below average athleticism. I know you would say that he doesn't have anything to gain from doing that, but all the dogs of the past tested Barkley, beijon, Zeke, McCaffrey, et cetera. They all tested in some form. Why is he still your undisputed number one running back if he doesn't have metrics and KPIs to go off of besides game film? Don't you want a little more transparency from a one oh one Dynasty pick? Thanks? Man, don't take this criticism as a negative. I'm just curious as his lack of non transparency is scaring me off a one oh one pick. Okay, so first off, thank you for the kind words at the top. That means a lot. But to me, this question is pretty easy to answer. Athletic testing isn't a very big portion of my data driven approach to prospecting production. Is you say quote he doesn't have metrics and KPIs to go off of besides game film, That's not true. Genty has the vast majority of things that the ZAP model looks at. I know what his breakout score is, I know his size, I have his best season reception share. He doesn't have a speed score because we don't have a forty time from him, So at the moment, I just have a standard score for him. But don't take that the wrong way either. The majority of running backs in the ZAP model, they're neutral for Waight adjusted forty time, meaning it's not impacting their overall score. So chances are that would be the case for Gent anyway. And actually I'd argue just watching him play that there's a better than not chance that he might have an elite speed score. He's just not testing because he doesn't have to. I mean, just because other running backs in the past have tested doesn't mean that it's a smart thing to do in his circumstance. Like I don't think it means that he's hiding something. He's making a smart decision because he knows it won't impact any anything at all. If he runs a fast forty what's that gonna do. It's hard to really improve his draft stock when he's projected to go in the top ten at least the top fifteen. Why risk something happening? Like Taylor Swift doesn't need to go on American Idol. She's proven to be a superstar singer. She doesn't need to go on television and promote herself and show everyone how good she is. All that would do is potentially expose her as maybe not being as good of a performer as people thought. Because there's a one to one direct comparison. People are gonna compare Taylor Swift to other contestants on American Idol. Why would she need to do that. It's not a good idea from a marketing standpoint. Ashton Genty has proven to be a good prospect. Teams know that he doesn't need to do a lot of bench presses to prove that, and he doesn't need to do that for me either. His analytical profile is unbelievable. He has the sixth best top season reception share of any running back in the ZAP Model database. His breakout score is ninety four point three. That's really really good. He's one of six players in the model's database to have a best season total yards per team play rate above two point eight. If you think my models are about athletic testing, and if you think that I'm evaluating based on combine measurables, then I honestly think that you should read the Late Round Prospect Guide. And I'm not saying that to just get another sale. I'm saying that because that's quite literally the opposite of how I evaluate prospects, and getting an understanding of that can be really helpful. I don't need Ashton gent to run the forty for me. To know that a Studeley production profile alongside top ten draft capital is worthy of the one oh one. Anything, of course is possible. Nothing is certain with prospecting, but the chance that Gent gives us crazy good fantasy production it's very very high. This that's question is from at MT Dynasty FF. It says, hey, JJ, how does the rookie tight end model look this year? Loveland versus Warren is an interesting debate at the top. Also, Taylor, Arroyo, Ferguson, and Fannin could all get solid draft capital. Also I got an email that says, JJ, can you talk more about Harold Fannin in an upcoming podcast? Obvious production but not a power conference and then a slow forty. He seemed to have early hype until the combine and it now seems like people hate him. Would just love to hear your thoughts, Davin. So the tight end model isn't as robust as the ones at running back and wide receiver, but it does exist. It looks at size, speed, score, draft capital age, and some production metrics mostly per route run metrics. This year's class, it looks really solid on paper. At the moment, both Warren and Loveland are being categorized as elite producers. Warren has the edge over Loveland, but both look really strong. It's not like brock Bauer levels of good or even Sam Laporta levels, because the model did like Laporta quite a bit. But both of those players look good in the model. Fannin Arroyo and Terrence Ferguson are listed next as weekly starters, and then the model isn't very high on Mason Taylor. Taylor has the worst production profile versus the other guys. Now, regarding Fannin, I think there's reason to be nervous about that four to seven to one forty. He weighed at two hundred and forty one pounds. He wasn't that big, and that forty gave him a speed score of about ninety eight. That's not that strong a tight end. In fact, the tight end model goes back to twenty fifteen. We haven't seen a single tight end with a speed score below one hundred give us eleven or more PPR points per game in one of his first three seasons, and then if you look at ten or more PPR points per game, there's only two tight ends with speed scores under one hundred. Kate Otton and Jake Ferguson. His speed is gonna matter in the NFL at least when it comes to being a strong fantasy asset. There's a reason people of dingdom profile is crazy. There's no doubt, but I definitely worry about that upside. He's gonna probably need to find a team like John hu Smith did last year, where that team is gonna just pepper him with low a dot targets. But even a guy like John hu Smith had a speed scorer that was a good bit higher. This a's questions from at Connor Helly. It says, how much does Luther Burden's junior year scare you? His overall career arc and the rhetorics surrounding it reminds me a ton of Jalen Reger great second year with a poor third year. It was his quarterback and offense's fault. Trust me, Bro, do you think there's any validity to that comp I mean, I can see where you're coming from. But it's important to note that Burden's high was higher than Reggers, and is low was also higher than Riggers. Burton's breakout score is ninety six point three in the model. Raggers was eighty five point five. That may not seem like a big difference, but that is a decent delta in the model. But like Burden's best season in yards route run three point twenty nine, Regers two point five to six, Riger had a career yards per rout run rate of two point zero eight, Burden is at two point three to two. Burden's top season in adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt three point three seven Reggers two point seven to three. In their final season, Burden had a yards per team pass attempt rate that was like twenty percent better than Riggers. The model actually gave Reger a negative draft capital delta, which means it viewed him less favorably than the NFL did and where he was drafted. Riger had a score of ninety one point seven. Burden, even if he's a second round pick, he might have a Zapp score above ninety five. Spoiler alert, And yeah, the model loves Burden, probably a little bit too much. I've written about it, I've talked about it. I think it's too bolish because it's just not capturing everything. But I've said this before on the show. I wouldn't worry so much about his drop during his final year. Of the player who have seen drops like that who were drafted in round one to round two, Yeah, there were misses, but there were also guys like Alshon, Jeffrey, Juju Smith, Schuster, Jackson Smith, and Jigba. It's not all that bad. The hit rates weren't that different for players who did see that giant drop in their final season. Now, I of course would rather not see that drop in production, and since we're looking at market share related statistics, I don't think that quarterback play can just explain everything. I think that's kind of a cop out. But I don't think that Burden has as many glaring red flags analytically as Jalen Reger did. I also think a team is probably gonna use Burden in the slot right away, and that could provide a little bit more safety. Look at the end of the day, I do think that Luther Burden's a high variance prospect, but I think it's high variance from the standpoint that his usage was like Wandell Robinson's in college. Yet he comes to guys like Brandon Ayuk. We had some weird advanced metrics with Jalen Rigor, but you also had a lower breakout score in the ZAP model, and you had a situation where the Eagles reached for him. He had a projected draft pick of fortieth overall according to NFL Mock Draft Database. He went twenty first overall, and those reaches are now part of this formula in the z AP model. I don't think we're going to see something like that with Burden, but we'll see. This has questions from at Ee Mauloff. It says, how does Matt Waldman's position on a player such as mari and Hampton tenth best running back in the class change how you view a player who your model sees as an elite upside prospect? Now? I also got a question on Patreon from Michael that says, I love the variety of guests that you have on late round perspectives. The discussions where you disagree are very interesting. How much, if any, do those conversations impact your valuation of a prospect? So I actually got this question even more this week, but I think you guys get the gist. How do other people's views essentially impact my own views on these players? Well? I think it depends on a lot of factors, but let's use Waldman's a Mario in Hampton ranking as an example. I pressed Waldman to talk more about Hampton if the draft capital is there, and he then talked about how his post draft version of the RSP goes over landing spot and draft capital and all that. He'd be the first to admit that Hampton's rank will change if he's a first round pick. We have to remember that his pre draft work, it's largely just saying who he thinks is most talented before layering in all the other factors that can impact fantasy football. My approach to prospecting is different. I'm using mock draft data for draft capital to help influence things pre draft. I even said it when talking to Waldman. At this point in the process, He's doing just more straight up talent evaluation. I'm doing more of the what will impact your fantasy football rosters most. There's obviously going to be overlap there though the model likes Luthor Burden and so Doaes Waldman, But what we're trying to solve doesn't seamlessly overlap at this moment in time. What I'm trying to say is that when you're listening to these discussions, I think that's really important. It's why I try to open up the conversations talking about their process and how they analyze things like I'm way more focused on fantasy at this point in the process compared to what Matt Walman or Matt Harmon. They're evaluating the talent profiles without factoring in where these guys might get drafted. I'm evaluating their potential fantasy football impact because I have projected draft capital. I'm looking at it from that perspective, and I'm saying, if we do see this, this is how I view this player, which is why mari and Hampton is viewed at so favorably by the model and by myself, because right now I'm assuming that he is going to get first round draft capital. So let me be more direct with your question. How do I let other analysts influence my own analysis. I just see it as more information that might impact something like draft capital, or it may show that the current projected draft capital isn't totally right. It can change a player's range of outcomes, like the fact that Waldman doesn't like Amri and Hampton that much. He didn't even say that he was bad. He's just lower from a talent perspective. But that tells me that maybe a lot of teams might feel the same way, and maybe I shouldn't be so bold and thinking that he's locked in as a first round pick. Maybe I should loosen things up a little bit and be open to Hampton having less of an edge over like Trayvon Henderson in my rankings. Getting other perspectives from smart people who you trust are doing the work just means that you're going to reinforce some of your ideas about players, or you're going to open up the range of outcomes for a particular player. I still view a mari and Hampton as the RB two in his own tier because he's projected to go round one and he checks a lot of analytical boxes. I mean, even early round two, he still looks really, really good. Maybe my confidence isn't as strong after talking to Waldman, but if enough people believe what Waldman's saying, then Hampton also probably won't have the capital that were projecting him to get. I look at prospecting as a range of outcomes in a risk profile game. Luther Burden has a wide range of outcomes that increases his risk profile. If you're a gamer who's willing to take on the high risk, high reward. He's a great pick for you. If that's what your team can take on, go for it. If you'd rather play it a little safer, maybe go after a mecha Aguca. Maybe that's your guy. And I'll be open and honest about all of that when I'm ranking players and talking about them. I did that last year with Brian Thomas. I like Thomas because I'm more inclined to take that chance. Some people aren't. And you might remember the ZAP model had Thomas as a low risk player, but I still said there was a lot of volatility to his profile, and I still believe that he just ended up hitting favorably, and that might happen with Luther Burden or at might go south. With prospecting, we have to understand range of outcomes. And for the record, when I say range of outcome, that comes in a lot of different forms. One of the forms is just straight up production age adjusted production. Matthew Golden, probable first round pick. His production profile is below average and there's some question marks there that makes him a higher risk type player. Luther Burden, meanwhile, his production profile actually isn't that bad. His sophomore season probably the best single season from a production standpoint in the model's database for this year's class. But the question marks come because he saw a lot of screens, he played a lot in the slot. How is that going to really translate to the NFL. That's something that the model may not capture. But talking to other people, I can form a little bit of a narrative around that player, and I can formulate my analysis. I don't think that my job is to simply give you the answers. It's to guide you to the most logical answer for your individual circumstance. So basically, this is hard to all explain because it's a pretty detailed and specific question to break down. But talking to other analysts it just shifts that range of outcomes formula. For me, it doesn't totally change the way that I view a player, at least a high end player. I'll be more open to saying whatever when it comes to a lower tiered player like a Day three pick. But if talking to someone completely changed how I view players, that would mean that I don't even believe in my own process, and I've spent way too much time. I put way too much effort into that process to just abandon it like that. That's the entire point of the prospect model, to have a backbone that you can trust when things get a little confusing. The final question this week is from Patreon. It's from Brofilio. It says, hey, JJ, this time of year, we hear multiple comparisons of draft prospects to pros already in the NFL, for example, Cam Skattaboo to David Montgomery or in your case, Cam Skataboo to Kareem Hunt. While these comparisons are definitely fun to discuss, and I emphasize they are fun content, do you think there is any genuine predictive power there for fan fantasy managers? Can we actually extract any actionable insights from these player comps? How accurate are they and are they testable? Thanks? So, I don't know how you'd really test comps or really quantify them. I also don't think that's the purpose of them, at least that's not how I treat them. Comps are there to just enhance the storytelling about a player. I can give you important numbers, I can give you a ZAP score for a player, but adding that additional layer can also be helpful to understand. Let's say a player's build, to see how that player moves at his size, how productive he was at that size. For instance, I can sit here and say that Dylan Samson is an explosive running back who may be slightly undersized, and he asked some question marks as a receiver. Okay, you're starting to get an idea. But then when I say that he compares really closely to the late Ronnie Hillman, you start to get a better idea of what I'm talking about. So comps help me with a storytelling in the narrative. But to me, there's also confidence in strong comps. When I have a player who everyone loves, but there aren't any good comps for that player, it does bring a little bit more volatility because we clearly have never seen anything like that player before. And when we haven't seen it before, it means we have to do more projecting than usual. But if there are close comps, close archetypes that consistently have done well in the NFL, that's huge. This is why I provide multiple comparisons in the prospect guide. When you only have one comp I'd argue that's more of the storytelling angle. To all this. When you have many comps, you can start to see if my model or someone else's evaluation, whoever's providing those comps, you can start to see if that player being analyzed has essentially happened before and if those sort of duplicates of said player brought good or bad results. So I wouldn't really look at comps as something that you want to quantify. I'd look at comps as narrative building and entertaining, as you're alluding to, but also confidence building. I'm going to feel better about a player who comps that are good player after good player. It's not gonna be everything, and it won't change his zapp score at all, but it's another piece of the puzzle. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you guys for listening. If you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and also don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Hope you have a great weekend. I'll talk to you next week.