701: 15 Transactions for Week 9

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Speaker 1: This is the latest with your host JJ Zachera, JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in. This is episode seven hundred and one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcasts sponsored by FanDuel. Thank you for tuning in. Before getting into transactions this week, I want to remind you that Twisted Tea and Fandle of joined forces to bring you a one of a kind contest series that gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credit. Introducing Twisted T's College Football Picks, a sports betting focused contest series. It's entirely free to play. The contest is simple. Each college football game will be assigned money lines, spread and total markets, with assigned points to each market. All you can do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection you made. If at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest, you'll be eligible for your share of site credit. Head over to fandel dot com slash Twisted Tea Picks and make your picks, and remember please drink responsibly. Sell Deonta Foreman. Now your league might be pretty competitive. It might be filled with league managers who consume a ton of fantasy content and they know not to just look at the final stat line when buying or selling players. But in more casual leagues, if you do look at that final stat line, Deontay Foreman looks pretty attractive right now, because in Week eight he ran twenty six times for one hundred and eighteen yards and three scores. He was a high end RB one. He had almost thirty two PPR points scored. He scored more points than any other Panthers running back this year. That includes, of course, Christian McCaffrey. But there are a lot of things to note here. First off, the Panthers face the Falcons. Atlanta has one of the worst defensive units in football, and they were banged up. The Panthers ended up scoring four touchdowns, and Deontay Foreman had three of them. Not only should we not expect the Panthers to have four offensive touchdowns per game moving forward, but Foreman is not gonna have seventy five percent of them. The other thing to note, Chuba Hubbard was out I said this last week, but I do think that Foreman is a better player than Chewba Hubbard, but Foreman was at a sub forty percent snap share before Hubbard was injured back in Week seven. I do think that moving forward, given what we saw this past week, Foreman's gonna be the one A in that backfield. It's just that a healthy Chewba Hubbard is a greater threat to Foreman's workload than Spencer Brown and Raheem Black. Cheer and the Panthers don't have the best schedule in the world upcoming either, though they do get to face Atlanta one more time over the next few weeks. I do think that Foreman overall will still have some use in fantasy football. Like I just said, I think that he's gonna see more work than Chewba Hubbard given what he did in Week eight. I just think that objectively, this is the kind of player to sell. If there's someone buying high it's a bad offense, there's a running back that's gonna come back and take some touches, and it was one of the best matchups imaginable on paper for Deontay Forman this past week. So if someone's buying this performance, I think that Foreman's a sell. By Davonte Smith, so Since Week one, Davante Smith's averaged a target share per game of twenty six percent. He said seven point eight targets per game. During this same timeframe, AJ Brown's target share per game is thirty percent. It's only four percentage points higher. AJ Brown's been at eight and a half targets per game. And like I said, DeVante Smith's seven point eight, I bet those numbers are a little bit closer than you expected. And what's kind of crazy is that from weeks two through six, So we're removing what happened this past week, and we're removing week one. From weeks two through six, Davante Smith had more receiving yards than AJ Brown. Since that week one, goose Egg. Smith's actually been really good in fantasy. He's averaged over fifteen PPR points per game, and that includes a very mediocre seven point three point outing against Pittsburgh this past week. The production was not there, but the volume was. He still had a twenty seven percent target share. The Eagles offense continues to cook. I want to Smith on my fantasy team. Hold Justin Fields. So we all know that Justin Fields had a pretty tough start to the season. So you see what he did this past week, and you're probably wondering is this sustainable. Over his last four contests, Justin Fields has been a top twelve QB one in each one, So my answer is to hold tight. He's averaged about two more rush attempts per game across his last four compared to his first four, and in this split he's been roughly thirty three more rushing yards per game better. That's almost an additional passing touchdown per contest and standard scoring leagues. And the great part is his schedules looking nice. Chicago's next three matchups are against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They get the Dolphins, Lions, and Falcons. There was a reason a couple of weeks ago I talked about adding Justin Fields. He's likely going to be a plug and play option over the next few weeks ad Josh Palmer. So despite the fact that we were told that Mike will siam is set to miss at least four weeks with this injury, Josh Palmer is still available in almost eighty percent of Yahoo leagues, so make sure you add him this week. Without Williams, Palmer is going to be slotted as a starter on the perimeter for LA. Keenan Allen should be back and healthy this week, hopefully fingers crossed. But Allan moves around that formation, He'll play in the slot a little bit. Palmer's more of a perimeter guy. He's more of a one to one replacement for Mike Williams. Now. I understand Palmer had opportunity to step up earlier this year with Keenan Allen's injury that didn't totally work out. He hasn't given us a top twenty wide receiver performance this season, but with that being said, he's seen a target chair at or above seventeen percent and four of six games played. That's not bad in a Justin Herbert led offense. Sell Jonathan Taylor, So I had no idea entering this week's transactions that I would be talking about Jonathan Taylor. Usually I have some idea about who I'm going to talk about, but with Jonathan Taylor, it wasn't even a thought in my mind. But when I do this show, I try to look at how the industry might be viewing players. I try to look at what the market might be saying, and Jonathan Taylor is still ranked really high in rest of season rankings across the industry, and I get it. You spent the first overall pick to get Taylor more than likely he was so good last year. He is a very good running back, but what makes him more attractive right now than someone like Josh Jacobs or even Dalvin Cook or maybe even Travis etn Here are the facts. Taylor's given you one top twenty performance this entire season in PPR formats. That came all the way back in Week one. Since then, he's averaged a running back rush share per game of seventy eight point six percent and a target share per game just shy of ten percent. Now, I know he hasn't been fully healthy this season, but those numbers are essentially the exact same that he saw last year. The difference is that the Colts offense isn't nearly as good. They're putting points on the scoreboard on just thirty point seven percent of their drives this year. That number was over forty three percent last year. Last season, about twenty seven percent of their drives resulted in a touchdown. This year, it's under fourteen percent. The main reason Jonathan Taylor was so incredible for fantasy. Last year was touchdowns, and of course, the better the offense, the more scoring opportunities a players gonna see. Last season, the Colts led the NFL and plays run at the goal line. They averaged three point six of those plays per game. In twenty twenty two, that number is a full play lower. Are we really expecting this huge turnaround with the Colts offense. They've already moved on from their starting quarterback. Now they have a more mobile passer under center. Historically that's not been a great thing for running backs or wide receivers and tight ends. Taylor's not someone who's going to disappear. He's not a Naji Harris type. But like I said, judging by some of the rest of the season rankings that I see out there, you can still get a very very nice return for Jonathan Taylor right now, sometimes you have to sell a little bit low. And for the record, at the time of this recording, Nahim Hines, there are rumors out there that he's gonna get moved. If he gets traded, of course, it's a little bit of a boost for Jonathan Taylor, but I would still use that in trade negotiations. To get a good deal for him, because the whole market will be higher on Jonathan Taylor if Nahim Heines does get traded. Hold Courtland Sutton. It's been rough for Courtland Sutton. From weeks one through five, Sutton was averaging a target share per game of twenty nine percent. His PPR points per game average was fifteen point four. He wasn't giving you monster weeks, but he was consistent as Russell Wilson's top target. In the three games since then, Sutton's target chair per game has dropped a fifteen point eight percent. He's failed to reach six PPR points in a single contest. I don't think trading away right now at such a low point is a good idea, especially before a bye week. The good news is that once their bye week is over, their schedule's pretty favorable. They have plus matchups from weeks ten through week fourteen, that's according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So just hold tight and hope the Broncos can just turn things around during this bye week. Add Greg Dolcic so I mentioned dolcig a couple of weeks ago, and his usage has been awesome. It needs to be reiterated. He's played three NFL games and in those games he's seen target shares of twelve percent, twenty percent, and nineteen percent as a rookie tight end. And meanwhile, during this time he's second in the NFL and tight end routes run fewer. Teams are going to be looking for Dulsich off the waiver wire this week because the Broncos are on a bye I think that he's worth a stash and holding through that bye week by Raheem Moster. So Moster's now given us two single digit PPR performances over his last three. That's going to frustrate fantasy managers. But usage wise, things are okay. He hasn't seen fewer than seventy percent of Miami's running back rushes in his single game since Week three, and he's consistently running the most routes out of that backfield talked about most of a couple of weeks ago on this show. Because the Dolphins have a favorable schedule moving forward. That schedule hasn't changed from now through the end of the season. According to my adjusted Fantasy Points allowed method, Miami has the best running back schedule in the entire NFL, so now is not the time to bail on Raheem Moster add Jalen Warren. So this transaction has two purposes. The first one, it's not a bad idea to add handcuffs right now, and the handcuff doesn't have to be for a running back on your roster. You don't need to add Jalen Warren only if you have Nase Harris, because if something happens to Harris, or if a shift happens in that Steelers backfield, then all of a sudden you'd have another usable piece if Warren was on your roster. Now, there are times to handcuff your own running backs too. If you're in really, really good shape, if you're looking good for the playoffs, you can have that insurance policy makes total sense, So add handcuffs right now. But the second reason this transaction exists is because Naji Harris has been very bad. According to number five Ers expected points model, Harris has a thirty two percent success rate this year. Jalen Warren is at forty eight percent. Harris is a per rush expected points added rate of minus point one two. Warren is at plus point three four. Now this isn't to say that Warren is a better running back than Naji Harris. It is to say that Harris probably shouldn't be seeing the amount of work that he's been seeing. He has not been effective, and we saw a shift in Week eight, Warren hit a career in season high forty three percent running back rush. There go get your handcuffs. Sell to a tongue of ioloa. Look, there's nothing wrong with Tua. Honestly, if he was my fantasy quarterback, I would feel fine. This transaction is for those of you who are looking at the playoffs. In Week fifteen, Miami gets Buffalo. We know that's a tough matchup for quarterbacks. It's a top five to one. The following week's Green Bay, another top five opponent in the wrong direction, and then during Championship Week the Dolphins get the Patriots. New England hasn't been a tough matchup on paper, but if you look at what they did in Week one, they held Tua to under fifteen fantasy points. So given two is coming off this monster performance in a really easy matchup, now might be the time to sell add Isaiah likely so Mark Andrews is banged up and in that Thursday night game against Tampa Bay, Isaiah likely he crushed. He had six receptions seventy seven yards in a touchdown. He had a twenty point six percent target shair. It sounds like Mark Andrews' injury isn't overly serious, but there's at least some chance that he misses some time. So likely is someone to add off the waiver wire this week just in case, add Kenyan Drake. Another raven to add off the wire this week is Kenyan Drake. It feels like deja vu. Gus Edwards he's hurt again. He heard his hamstering against the Buccaneers. That leaves us with Drake as the team's lead back, or at least the player who's likely to see the most touch is in that backfield. Drake has had a couple of decent performances over his last three and he saw season high eleven point eight percent target chair in Week eight. With Baltimore's bye week hitting in week ten, they might be more inclined to give their injured players a rest this week against the Saints. So this goes for Mark Andrews and Gus Edwards. That's another reason to look at Drake off the waiver wire. By James Robinson of All the transactions you're gonna hear this week. This is one hundred percent the strangest. It's at least the most galaxy brained one. Now, as we all know, Robinson was traded to the Jets last week after Breisee Hall's ACL injury. In Week eight, Jay rob only saw thirty six percent of New York's running back rushes. He had just one target through the air. Michael Carter was the guy who played the most snaps. Now, that was to be expected because James Robinson had just joined the team and the fact that the Jets hit a negative game script that favors Michael Carter more than James Robinson. And look, I've talked about it on this show plenty this season, James Robinson has struck this year. He has not been good. This is why he was a cell candidate for me earlier this season. But he is likely going to be the primary early down and goal line guy for New York. And if any of you guys had Breeze Hall cover your ears, Jets running backs have the third best playoffs schedule this year in fantasy football. They get the Lions, who are the second best matchup and adjusted points allowed to running backs, the Jags who are seventh, and the Seahawks who are ninth. That's from weeks fifteen through seventeen, and those are all winnable games for the Jets too. That could lead to more favorable game scripts for a player like James Robinson. Now I have to stress this, do not send anything substantial for James Robinson. This is just a scenario where you're swapping bench ass hits because there's a non zero chance that we see decent production from the Jets backfield during the fantasy playoffs this year. I know it's a random transaction, but I do think that it's kind of logical. Add the Cincinnati Bengals defense. According to Fandals Sportsbook, the Bengals are eight and a half point home favorites this week against the Panthers. Yes, Carolinas looked better with PJ. Walker under center the last couple of weeks. We have to keep in mind they face a struggling Bucks team and then they face the Falcons, and the Falcons were still a top ten defense against them. Carolinea has been the eighth most favorable matchup this season for opposing defenses, and the justin fantasy points allowed. I think you should have confidence in the Bengals defense this week by the Baltimore Ravens defense. So you're probably sitting there like, wait, there's another transaction after you already talked about a defense. Yes, and it's a weird one. Another weird one. We're going to trade for a defense this week. The Ravens might be out there on some waiver wires, but they're likely rostered in your league. If you're getting frustrated with the constant cycling of defenses each week, you could look to Baltimore. They have a shot to be a plug and play option over the rest of the season. Seriously. Now, keep in mind they do have a bye in Week ten, but check out this schedule through the rest of the year. New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and they're Week sixteen and seventeen games against the Falcons and Steelers. They're at home. Don't sleep on the Ravens defense from here on out. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it. Pretty much Anywhere podcast can be found. Interfort to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com, join the Patreon, subscribe to the newsletter, all that good stuff. Otherwise, I'll talk to you tomorrow. Take care,