Fair Territory: Alex Bregman to Cubs, Latest on Tucker/Bellinger/Bo, Red Sox mess, Skubal arb fight

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of Fair Territory. It is January twelfth, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Do you know where your free agent bat is? We will get to that later in the show, but first, let's talk about the team that actually did sign a big free agent bat over the weekend, The team that I wrote about last week and said they needed to make a move precisely like this. Generally speaking, teams don't listen to me, don't care what I write. But in this case, I think I had the right idea and the Cubs did the right thing. Alex Gregman five years, one hundred and seventy five million. With deferrals, it's more like five to one fifty or five to one fifty five, but either way, he will be their third baseman next season. And with the Cubs doing this, they've really completed an offseason it would seem to me that has been very good in almost every way. They got a starting pitcher Edward Cabrera that they needed, rebuilt their bullpen with five free agent signings, even brought in Tyler Austin bringing him back from Japan. They've just had a really sound off season for a team that, in my opinion and in the opinion of a lot of people who follow them, need to take a step forward. The question now is what is next for the Cubs, And you see their off season editions right there, and let's not forget showda Imanaga also accepted a qualifying offer, so he's back. The question with the Cubs now is would they trade Nico Horner or Matt Shaw now that they have Bregmann in the fold. In my opinion, I've written this, and Sahada Sharma of The Athletic wrote it more eloquently than I've said it today. The Cubs can't trade Horner. They shouldn't trade Horner. They can entertain the thought if they'd like, and if someone wants to offer them something ridiculous for one year of Nico Horner, be my guest. But the whole idea here is to build the best team possible, and it's difficult to imagine the best Cubs team possible not including Nico Horner. Nico Horner, yes, under club control for only one more season. Well, guess what you know what that means. It means the Cubs should sign him to an extension, and that way they would have locked up Horner at second, Swanson and short Bregman at third. This is a team, as I've written, has very little on their books beyond this season, so they're in perfect position, as they were, for Gregman to do something along those lines with Nico Horner. I know Yankee fans are lusting after him, other teams probably two or other.

00:02:36
Speaker 2: Fan bases at least, but I.

00:02:39
Speaker 1: Just don't see this happening. I don't see it as particularly logical.

00:02:43
Speaker 2: So good for the.

00:02:44
Speaker 1: Cubs in getting the guy that they frankly should have had last offseason. If you remember, they signed or attempted to sign Alex Bregman for four years, one hundred and fifteen million. They finished fourth in those sweepstakes. The Tigers were ahead of them, other teams were ahead of them, of course, the Red Sox were ahead of them, and ultimately he gets much more than four to one point fifteen from that team. He gets sixty million more and an extra year. Good for Alex Bregman. He comes out way ahead here. Even with the deferrals. He gets six years, two hundred and fifteen million. It's not worth that in present day, but that is ultimately around what he wanted so Alex Gregman, he'll be at Wrigglely. Next year, he'll be at Wriggily with Edward Cabrera. And the Cubs are a team that, depending upon what the Brewers do, are going to be one of the favorites in the NL Central, which is what they should be every single year since they are the biggest spender, or should be the biggest spender in that particular division. Now moving on, this is where it gets really interesting, and I touched on this in my four takeaways on the Bregman contract Saturday night. Three big bats remain Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Boba Schet.

00:03:59
Speaker 2: More than three.

00:04:00
Speaker 1: Three teams are in the hunt for those big bats. More than three big market teams are in the hunt.

00:04:06
Speaker 2: In fact, I've listed five.

00:04:07
Speaker 1: I've got five in my head. It's the Mets, it's the Yankees, it's the Phillies, it's the Dodgers, and yes, it's the Red Sox. So if you've got five teams and the hunt for three bats, two are going to go get left out. One of them you would think might be the Red Sox since they don't want to spend big on guys like this, and the other one, well, who knows. And it's interesting because in speaking last week with the Diamondbacks official, this is when they were still mulling the possible trade of Katel Marte, that official said, you know what, I don't know why these teams in the mix for Marte are not being more aggressive with us, because he foresaw this situation. There are not enough big bats to go around. So who is going to get left out? That's a question we're going to see answered. The Yankees with Bellinger, buster only reported just a couple of days that they are operating as if he is signing somewhere else. That doesn't mean they won't sign him. But obviously those negotiations have not gone well. The Athletics Brendan Cutty has detailed that from the very beginning. So if the Yankees get Bellinger, okay, that's the guy that they've targeted, the guy they want. They're in a similar physition with him that the Red Sox were in with Bregman. Number one priority. That's Cody Bellinger for the New York Yankees. The Tucker sweepstakes getting quite interesting. Jim Duquette reporting this morning again that the three teams in the mix for Tucker. Are the Mets, the Blue Jays, and the Dodgers. How this is going to play out? I'm not exactly sure. Will any of those teams go long with Tucker? That probably is the biggest question right now. Because the Dodgers we know they want to go short. The Mets, we know they want to go short. The Blue Jays, It's unclear exactly where they are. And here's Jim's tweet from this morning. The league source confirmed to me that the three main teams involved in the Tucker negotiations, Toronto, the Dodgers, and the Mets, have all met with the player, either in person or over zoom as part of the recruiting process. Will be interesting to see if any of the three teams increase their offers soon to separate themselves from the other. Now, the real question here, perhaps is what does Tucker want. He's a low key guy.

00:06:24
Speaker 2: It's hard for people who.

00:06:26
Speaker 1: Know him, many people who know him to envision him wanting the Mets. Obviously, if they make the high offer, he's going to want the Mets a little bit more the Blue Jays. Does he want to go to Toronto? It's still a question that some free agents have and then there are the Dodgers. And with the Dodgers, the reason I kind of like them in these sweepstakes is because with them he would be their fifth, sixth biggest star. He could kind of mix in and not attract the notice he would in those other cities. But the Mets, obviously he wouldn't be the biggest star, and with the Blue Jays he wouldn't be the biggest. But the Dodgers have arguably the most star power of any team. So Tucker, it's going to be a really interesting decision, really interesting to see.

00:07:10
Speaker 2: What he does. Now.

00:07:11
Speaker 1: Then there are the Boston Red Sox, and I've saved I wouldn't call them the best, but I've saved them for last. This is not a question of saving the best for last. No, the question with the Red Sox is what the heck are they going to do? As I mentioned, they're not a team that looks like they're going to be giving Boba shed eight years two hundred million anytime soon, or something to that effect. They're a team that has, from the days when they failed to sign Mookie Betts, kind of had missteps at every turn. The failure to sign Mookie, the trade of MOOKI that was the original sin. After that, what happened. They overcompensated by giving Devers Raphael Devers, a ten year, three hundred and thirteen point five million dollar deal. I don't know that anyone when that deal with signed thought it was a great idea, thought that Devers was a guy that, I don't know, three four or five years from the date of signing would still be playing third base. He looked like a first baseman DH. Even then, what did the Red Sox see in him in year two of that contract?

00:08:16
Speaker 2: A first baseman DH.

00:08:18
Speaker 1: It's when they signed Bregman and they moved Devers over or tried to move him over to first, wanted to move him over to first, and we all know.

00:08:25
Speaker 2: How that turned out.

00:08:27
Speaker 1: So then you have Bregman, but you don't sign Bregman back, and now you're left with a whole at third base. You're left with no Devors, no Bregman. What do you do you see there? Jen McCaffrey wrote in letting Alex Bregman walk the Red Sox, aversion to long term deals rears its head. Now the Red Sox can still put together a very representative team and other executives around the league still think they're pretty good. They're going to do some more perhaps, and maybe it won't be a big bat. Maybe they'll go as Rob Bradford suggested this morning, maybe they go for a high end pitcher and then supplement themselves with lower kinds of bats, maybe an Aoheno Suarez, maybe a jt Rio Munto, who they have had interest in the past, or at least earlier this offseason.

00:09:15
Speaker 2: But we'll see what happens with.

00:09:16
Speaker 1: The Red Sox, because right now they're in a bit of disarray. Tom Karen, one of their team broadcasters, was critical of them on X yesterday.

00:09:25
Speaker 2: A whole bunch of people were critical of them on X.

00:09:29
Speaker 1: Fans, media members, you name it, and the Red Sox, when in a siege moment like this, often overreact and often overcompensate. That was what the Devors signing was after they failed to get Mookie done. And let's remember Mooki said later after he was traded that he would have signed with the Red Sox signed back with them if they had offered him the same deal that the Dodgers did twelve years, three hundred and sixty five million.

00:09:57
Speaker 2: Heavily deferred.

00:09:58
Speaker 1: We don't know if that's true or not. It's a hypothetical, But the Red Sox should have signed Mooky.

00:10:04
Speaker 2: That again was the original sin.

00:10:06
Speaker 1: So where are we now? What I wrote about the Cubs last week is just as applicable for the Red Sox at this moment. You're a big market team. Act like it back in a moment with the Inside Dish. Oh and one other thing, The Foul Territory Network has Redman's deal covered from every angle. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma's latest North Side Territory episode uncovers how the Cubs got the deal across the finish line. Meanwhile, Robbie Hyde's Monster Territory is left to lament what the Red Sox should have done differently, Subscribe on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast to the entire Foul Territory Network.

00:10:47
Speaker 3: Well, well, all.

00:10:53
Speaker 1: Right, time now for the Inside Dish, the part of the show where I go inside a story. I've written something happening in the game, something else entirely. And today I'm going to talk about my column that appeared this morning in The Athletic, the one on Trek Schooble's arbitration case with the Detroit Tigers. This case is getting a lot of attention. It should get a lot of attention because Schooble has asked for a record amount in arbitration, thirty two million, the Tigers have offered nineteen million. It is the biggest spread in the history of arbitration going back to nineteen seventy four or so. And it is a complex nuance case that requires a good amount of thought and a good amount of explanation. I won't go into as much detail here as I did in the column. The column is sort of lengthy by my standards, I guess. But first off, let's talk about how arbitration hearings work. I know most fans understand this, but let's just get through it so the people who maybe aren't familiar can get some insight into how this works.

00:11:56
Speaker 2: So in a hearing, one side.

00:11:58
Speaker 1: Has submitted one number, in this case, Schooble side, thirty two million. The other side submits another number, nineteen million in the Tiger's case, and the arbitrator, the three person panel independent arbitrators jointly accreed upon by the Union and Major League Baseball, they pick.

00:12:16
Speaker 2: One number or the other. They don't go in between.

00:12:19
Speaker 1: It's thirty two or nineteen in this case. Now there is the possibility that the Tigers and school bol could settle before the hearing takes place in February, but in talking to people on both sides, no one anticipates that happening. They are both entrenched in their positions and they both have in their minds valid points. What they're saying here is, in each case, each side is saying the other side is trying to break from established norms. And I'll explain that as we get into it. Schooble made ten point one point five million last year off his first sy Young. He then won his second sig Young. And here we are where these two sides are diametrically opposed in how they see what this case should mean for Trek Scuble.

00:13:10
Speaker 2: Scooble and Boris believe that his number the Tiger's number.

00:13:14
Speaker 1: I should say, I'm sorry ignores the CBA. The CBA, which lists special accomplishments and lists five plus players as players who can go outside the normal arbitration comparisons. Usually, players are compared only to players in their own class. That's how this works, That's how the numbers are determined. Ultimately, when teams are negotiating with players when the arbitrators decide on cases that are not settled. But Scooble can compare himself because of those two things, special accomplishments and his status as a player with five or more year service.

00:13:50
Speaker 2: He can compare.

00:13:50
Speaker 1: Himself to all players, and that includes free agents who have signed lucrative contracts. The Tigers see this as much different scenario. They see Schoobl's request at far beyond what the system has historically dictated, the system of comparables. They see him as more comparable to the David Prices and the Jacob de Crams of the past than anyone currently in the mix. You might talk about Zach Wheeler at forty two million, They're like, no, no, no, in arbitration, no one has ever gotten that much as a pitcher, and that way, Derek Scrubles should not get that much either. Now there is a backdrop to this as well, Actually two backdrops to all this. One is that Major League Baseball and the Union both have stakes in this. Major League Baseball's labor relations department is one that recommends filing numbers four teams. They are involved in the process of arbitration as is the Union on the other side, involved in making recommendations to players and their agents about what they should seek. Now, the other backdrop, and perhaps the more interesting one the fans, is what does this mean for Terrek Schouble as a potential trade candidate?

00:15:07
Speaker 2: Now all off season, the.

00:15:10
Speaker 1: Tigers have sought to improve their roster and have Kyle Finnegan, Kennedy, Jansen, Labor Torres returned on a qualifying offer. They've done some things, and they have signaled that they are trying to win in Schooble's last year of club control. But they also have left the door open for a potential Schooble trade. Now, I don't expect that trade necessarily to happen, and teams always leave the door open on every possibility. That's just how they roll. But this whole thing raises all entirely different issue. If the Tigers are going to end up paying thirty two million to Trek Scooble, are they more inclined to trade him? And for all anyone knows, As I wrote, Trek Scouoble might have asked for thirty two million trying to force the issue with them, maybe trying to force a trade to another team.

00:16:00
Speaker 2: Who knows.

00:16:00
Speaker 1: We don't know the answers to that. Schooble has been pretty adamant about wanting to stay in Detroit, But at the same time, here he sent a serious message to the Tigers about what he thinks he is worth, and what a player is worth in arbitration is not necessarily reflective of his value on the field. You'll see this all the time, where a guy from zero to three years service, an MVP type like Acunu was, for instance, when he started, he's not getting paid a thirty million dollar salary because he's in the zero to three class. Arbitration players in the three to six year class, sometimes the two to six year class, they don't get paid what free agents get paid. That's the structure, and that's the Tigers argument. So they have David Price's nineteen point seven five million dollar record salary for an arbitration eligible picture to point too, they have de Gram's record nine point six million dollar raise for an arbitration eligible picture to point two is well, and what they will say is that, Hey, Scooble, as good as he is, is not as good as de Gram was in twenty eighteen when he had maybe the best year ever for an arbitration eligible pitcher, and they could even argue that he wasn't as good as Price, although Price's numbers were not the same as Schooble's. Price had more innings at a time when pitchers did pitch more innings. Again, fascinating question and one we're going to see play out now.

00:17:27
Speaker 2: Keep in mind also.

00:17:30
Speaker 1: David Price his arbitration salary, that record nineteen point seven to five million, that was eleven years ago. Jacob de Gram his record raised from seven point seven million to seventeen million. I'm sorry, seven point six to seventeen that was six years ago. So we're talking about a long time ago in both cases. And Scooble and Boris, his agent, Scott Boris, would contend since then, They would argue since then that Wan so Yoo, another Boris client, has set the record for arbitration eligible players at thirty one million, and they would ask the question, why are position players in arbitration up here and pitchers down here?

00:18:14
Speaker 2: Fair question.

00:18:15
Speaker 1: So this again is going to go to a hearing. I wish it was on television. I wish we could see this play out. Arbitration hearings, unfortunately are not televised. But the bottom line here is that Schooble is the perfect guy to test this system. Scooble might be headed for four hundred million next year in free agency next offseason. So is he worried about getting nineteen million rather than thirty two million, getting a big raise rather than a massive raise? Well, I'm sure I'd rather have the thirty two but if he has nineteen. If he gets nineteen, it's still a big raise from ten point one five and he's good now. Both sides, as I mentioned, they believe their arguments are valid. It's impossible to know what a panel of arbitrators might do. We routinely get surprised by their decisions year after year.

00:19:05
Speaker 2: But either way, and this.

00:19:07
Speaker 1: Is the point here, this decision is likely to have ramifications for baseball, for the Tigers, and for Schooble that go well beyond what.

00:19:17
Speaker 2: He's going to earn in twenty twenty six.

00:19:20
Speaker 1: We'll be back with Grill and Ken after this.

00:19:23
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00:19:46
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00:19:47
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00:20:31
Speaker 1: Time now for Grilling Ken, the part of the show where I answer your questions. Let's get right to them. First question comes from armand is amazing armand he asks Grilling Ken, does Boba Chet sign a deal with the Phillies today during the meeting. It's interesting you asked that armand because I've actually had that thought. So they do have a Zoom meeting scheduled for today, is first reported by Matt gil And in this meeting, I'm sure the Phillies are going to put for Burshette. And it's the kind of thing while it's on Zoom, you sort of don't want to let them get off the zoom without getting a deal done, right.

00:21:08
Speaker 2: It's that old theory, don't let.

00:21:10
Speaker 1: Him walk out of the room until he signs a contract. You can't really do that on Zoom, I guess, but it's the same working idea. And I go back also to what Pete Alonso said on Foul Territory about what the Orioles did when they met with him that was live in person in the winter meetings. Alonso said the Orioles made an offer showing their intent before he even was in the meeting with them. They made that offer before the meeting, and I imagine if the Phillies want to be aggressive with Burshette, they will do something along those same lines. If I had to guess right now, I would say the Phillies are the favorite.

00:21:45
Speaker 2: We'll see what happens.

00:21:47
Speaker 1: Next question from Tyler Macksmith, who asked, will the Braves TV situation affect their pursuit of a starting pitcher? Interesting question. Now, the Braves are one of the teams affected by this main street thing that's going on, losing their TV deals, losing their money that they previously had. They signed Tyler Kinley a reliever, re signed them really to a three million dollar contract over the weekend. I'm sorry, four point twenty five for one year. Four point twenty five million for one year.

00:22:16
Speaker 2: For Tyler Kinley.

00:22:17
Speaker 1: That would indicate to me that they can still do things. But it is unclear for all the teams affected by this TV situation how it is going to impact them financially.

00:22:30
Speaker 2: So it's a fair question.

00:22:32
Speaker 1: And I guess we'll see as this plays out how much the Braves were affected, because here is a team that has made no secret of its desire to add another starting pitcher. All right, Next question, This one is from Carter Hawkins one thirteen. Because Bob Netting isn't spending well, he has spent more than he's spent in the past. Ryan O'Hearn two years, twenty nine million, that was for their pirates a major deal. Well, the question is how much more can they do? And they do need to do more, and I'm not exactly sure how this is going to end up for them. Aohana Suarez is a guy that they've been linked to. He's a guy who could end up with the Red Sox.

00:23:12
Speaker 2: He's gonna do fine somewhere. But if I'm the Pirates, I.

00:23:16
Speaker 1: Want at least one more hitter and.

00:23:18
Speaker 2: We'll see if they accomplish that.

00:23:20
Speaker 1: They have been aggressive in free agency to an extent that they have previously not been.

00:23:26
Speaker 2: But of course.

00:23:27
Speaker 1: O'Hearn is the only real free agent they've landed. They've made some trades, and some good trades that have increased payroll, but the big free agents they've basically gone to teams that they perceive those players perceive as more competitive.

00:23:41
Speaker 2: All right, let's take one more before we cut out here.

00:23:44
Speaker 1: This one's from John Todd twenty two e five, d Ken, do you have anything on the Angels? I mean, why would they save the Rendome money if they don't plan to spend it this year.

00:23:54
Speaker 2: I'm so confused, and hopefully you can help with understanding their plans.

00:23:58
Speaker 1: The Angels are another team in this TV situation, and I wrote about a week and a half ago that they were kind of lurking in the market. They were thinking about doing big things. That was before the TV stuff came down. And even at that time, our Angels beat writer Sam Blum said to me, are you sure about this?

00:24:17
Speaker 2: You think they're really going to spend?

00:24:18
Speaker 1: Because Sam's experience told him they're not going to spend, and right now it looks like that is more likely than actually doing something big or even doing something meaningful at all. And you're right, where is the rendo money? What is the point if you're not going to reinvest it? Hey, they did have to settle to Tyler skagg case, they've had some things go against them financially. But could they spend more? Yes, of course they could spend more. All Right, with that, we close it out. I want to thank everyone for watching and for listening. Foul Territory coming up at one pm ET. Luke Weaver, Jonathan Papabon and Sean Nukam joined AJ Presents, Eric Kratz and Scott Brown.

00:24:58
Speaker 2: We will be back Thursday at our normal.

00:25:00
Speaker 1: Twelve thirty Eastern flat with a lot of Rizzo returning, I talk to you then have a great week. Everyone,