720: 15 Transactions for Week 14

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ Zachera je zacher reef. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode seven and twenty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Basketball season is going strong, which means Wednesday nights are jam packed with NBA action, and Fandel and Buzzer plan on giving you a chance to win big with their daily Fantasy Basketball contest, Introducing the NBA Clutch Shot presented by Buzzer, an NBA DFS contest taking place every Wednesday from now until March that gives you a chance to win a share Fandel's biggest prize pool. Simply construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap, and fall along as the game's unfold using FanDuel's live scoring feature. Earn points for points scored, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, and watch as your lineup climbs the ranks to higher up the leader board you're lineup finishes, the more cash you'll win. It's that simple. The contest is live, so visit fandle dot com. Slash League Slash NBA Hyphen Maine Hyphen Marquee hyphen one and submit your lineups. Now. That's fandle dot Com Slash League Slash, NBA Dash, Maine Dash, Marquee dash one. As a reminder, I know your trade deadlines have likely passed, but you can use these buy and sell transactions for confidence purposes. If a players to sell, then you know that there's a chance that he doesn't do as well down the stretch, and vice versa. That can dictate your planning. With that being said, it is a fifteen transaction show. Let's get to it. Sell the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack. You could easily argue that Jacksonville has the toughest Fantasy football playoff schedule for passing attacks. In fact, that's what my adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers say. In Week fifteen, Jacksonville gets Dallas. The Cowboys have been the second toughest matchup for quarterbacks this year within that adjusted fantasy points allowed metric, and they're top seven against wide receivers. The next week they get the Jets. Quarterbacks have not been good against New York. The Jets are fourth best against the position and adjusted fantasy points allowed, and wide receivers have been even worse. The Jets are the absolute toughest matchup for wide receivers in fantasy football, and they wrap up the season against the Texans. Teams are running the ball against Houston. They're now the toughest matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed, they're the third hardest for wide receivers. Houston's actually allowed just two QB one performances this year, and those QB ones where Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert. Now, Jacksonville's Week fourteen matchup against Tennessee totally fine, but I do think the passing attack has a real chance to struggle during the fantasy playoffs at James Cook. So we've been gradually seeing James Cook get more involved in this Bill's offense, but things really together in Week thirteen. He was on the field for about forty three percent of Buffalo snaps. His previous season high was twenty six and a half percent. He ended up handling forty eight percent of Buffalo's running back rushes. He had an eighteen percent target share. He's actually now had target shares of twelve percent and eighteen percent over his last two and his sixteen and a half PPR points against New England this past week by far his best finish of the season. So given the way things are trending, he definitely should be added. I would not be surprised if he gets more and more work in this backfield. We just should be open to the possibility that he just hurts Devin Singletary more than has standalone value. That's a very real outcome ad cam Akers. So back in week twelve, it was Kyrien Williams in that Rams backfield, but in week thirteen it was cam Akers, And to me, there's a very obvious reason as to why this happened. Gamescript. Two weeks ago against the Chiefs, the Rams played forty nine of their offensive plays while trailing. Thirty of them happened while they were trailing by ten or more points. This past week against Seattle, the Rams did run forty two plays while trailing, but none of them were down by a lot of points because the game was a lot closer. That game script allowed the early down Acres to play seventy three percent of LA's snaps. That was easily a season high for him. Kyron Williams after playing seventy percent of their snaps in Week twelve, he was down to twenty seven percent in week thirteen because he's the pass catcher in that backfield. Now, we've seen this back and forth from the Rams offense all year. It's very frustrating. Given the state of this offense, it's really hard to feel bullish about any running back in this backfield. With that being said, they get the Raiders in Week fourteen. That's a top five matchup, so Acres might have some flex appeal by Marquise Brown. So the Cardinals had to buy in week thirteam. But back in Week twelve, we saw some good things from Hollywood Brown. He led the team targets coming off that injury. He had a thirty percent target share. He only scored ten point six PPR points, but that was really encouraging usage considering it was the first game that he played with DeAndre Hopkins. Now, hopefully Rondell Moore is eventually back to and maybe that slightly hurts the target share ceiling for Marquez Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. But the Cardinals wide receivers have the fifth most attractive fantasy playoff schedule when looking at justin fantasy points allowed. And that's because in Week sixteen and seventeen, they have good matchups against Tampa Bay in Atlanta ad Corey Davis. So, Corey Davis was featured on last week's Sleeper Show, and the logic behind that play was that Minnesota was really bad against perimeter wide receivers. And that's exactly what Davis is. That's what he plays on the Jets. He's a perimeter wideout, but he's also the number two wide receiver on that team. Despite what Elijah Moore did back in Week twelve, Corey Davis was on the field a lot more. He ended up catching five I've passes for eighty five yards against the Vikings. This shift to Mike White, it's provided a much much better floor and ceiling for Jets pass catchers. And from weeks fourteen through sixteen, the Jets have a pretty favorable schedule. They get matchups against Buffalo, Detroit, and Jacksonville. Those aren't bad matchups for wide receivers. So as the second option in New York's passing attack, I think that Davis should be rostered in most twelve team leagues. Sell Geno Smith. Now, look, I love Geno Smith. It's kind of hard to not love Geno Smith. It's hard to not love the story going on in Seattle. Smith has now finished as a top twelve quarterback in five consecutive games. He's been a QB one in each of his last five. He's been one of the best quarterbacks in all of football this year, but there is some reason for concern as we get closer to the Fantasy playoffs. During this month long stretch, Smith hasn't really faced difficult matchups. His matchup against the Rams in Week thirteen was the hardest matchup that he's faced on paper according to ad justin fantasy points allowed, but they weren't the same unit Aaron Donald didn't even play. There are two games in the fantasy playoffs that are concerning. In Week fifteen, the Seahawks gets San Francisco, that's a bottom five opponent for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Week sixteen is a good one. They get Kansas City. You can play him against Kansas City, but they finished the year against the Jets, a team I just talked about. So that's two bottom five matchups for Smith across the three week playoff, and one of those teams, the forty nine ers. They held Smith to just six fantasy points earlier in the season. Now you might want to hold onto them because of that Week sixteen game against the Chiefs, and he should be fine against Carolina this week. I just think we should temper expectations in total for the Fantasy playoffs ad johan Dotson. So things are pointing in the right direction for johan Dotson right now. In Week thirteen, he played seventy nine percent of Washington's offensive snaps, his highest snap share since Week three, and he ended up seeing twenty two and a half percent of the team's targets. That's his highest target share of the season. It may be tough to get reliable production from him down the stretch, but he's a talented player. And what do we do with talented players who are seeing volume. We roster them. Hold DeAndre Swift. So this identical transaction hit this same fifteen transactions list just a few weeks ago, but there's a little bit more meaning to it now because on Sunday, DeAndre Swift had his best Fantasy outing since Week one. He scored over twenty PPR points and it wasn't a fluke. Most of you with Swift, you're probably thinking, I can't rely on this guy. Rest of season. If the trade deadline hadn't passed, I'd be trading him this week because he's coming off a big game and Jamal Williams keeps scoring goal line touchdowns. But I think that you can be way more optimistic than that. Because Swift played over fifty one percent of Detroit snaps on Sunday, that's his highest snaphare since Week eight. Resulted in a fifty two percent running back rush share and a fifteen percent target share. Those were his best backfield share numbers of the entire season, all the while, Jamal Williams played his lowest snapshare of the year this past weekend. He escaped with a touchdown because that's what he does, but his forty one percent running back rush share was far lower than his sixty seven percent share the week prior. The Lions have a really favorable fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. It would not surprise me one bit if DeAndre Swift has a big December ad Greg Dolciic. So after three straight pretty mediocre performances, fantasy managers probably gave up on Greg Dolciic and then he undertaker Doc Gift everyone he had six catches for eighty five yards against the Ravens, he had a thirty eight percent target share. Now, route participation has not really been the issue for Dulsig. He's been top ten in the league in tight end routes run since coming back from his injury in Week six. The Broncos offense is just horrible, so there's gonna be up and down production. But Cortland Sutton did hurt his hamstring in that game, so maybe we see a little bit more looks funnel Dulsach's way at Djhark. So this transaction was first going to be used on a Seahawks running back, but so much is up in the air right now with that backfield. It's to the point where I have no idea what to even say on the topic. Kenneth Walker might not play next week, Travis Homer might not play, same with DJ Dallas. So is Tony Jones the AD as of right now, I guess, but that could change literally tomorrow. It could change an hour after this podcast is released. So with the Seahawks backfield, you have to just monitor the information. Hopefully we get more information before waivers run, so rather than trying to create all those hypotheticals, let's just pivot and let's talk about DJ Shark. Chark has seen a fourteen fifteen percent target chair over his last two games. That's eleven total targets. This week he gets a very, very beatable Minnesota secondary, the same one I talked about with Corey Davis. They've been bad against perimeter wide receivers this year, and they rank as the third best matchup for wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed. So in a game with a high over under, at the very least, DJ Shark makes for sort of a streaming wide receiver option by Pat Fryarmuth. So considering his peripherals, Pat Fryarmuth hasn't been as good as you'd probably expect in fantasy football. He scored fewer than ten Ppero points and three of his last five averaging ten Ppero points per game. That's fine enough for a tight end, but it's not elite. His usage, though, has been pretty good. Since Chase Claypool was Delta Chicago, Friarmuth has seen a target share per game just below twenty three percent. He's being used a little bit more in the slot, which is allowing for more passing game involvement. Now tight ends who see volume are hard to find, but Friarmuth also has a top five tight end schedule from here on out. That's according to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed method. He's not Travis Kelcey, but you should feel fine with Friarmuth as your top tight end. Add Daniel Bellinger. Another titand that you could look to this week is Daniel Bellinger. I think that Greg Dolcich would be the priority over him, but Bellinger returned from injury on Sunday and he saw an eighteen percent target chair. He ran the third most routes in the Giants and this Giants team doesn't have a lot of pass catchers, so it makes sense for them to keep him involved down the stretch. And because it's hard to find tight ends getting looks, he should be added. Add Ryan Tannehill. So Ryan Tannehill is not the most appealing fantasy quarterback. I totally get it, but there's reason to like him. In Week fourteen, the Titans get the Jags in the game where Tennessee's implied team total it's at least a respectable twenty three points. According to Fandels Sportsbook. Jacksonville's the eighth best matchup for quarter and a justin fantasy points allowed. You might look at Tannehill's recent performances and want to avoid him, and that's totally reasonable. That's a reasonable response. He's a streamer, after all. It's just a really rough week for streamers. And it's also important to know that over his last four games, he's faced teams that rank as the twenty seventh, twenty fourth, twenty fifth, and thirtieth best matchups for quarterbacks. This season, Tennessee's faced the third hardest schedule by justin fantasy points allowed for quarterbacks. Tannehill has only faced one top ten matchup, and in that game, he scored about nineteen fantasy points. Now, it would be great if Trey lom Berks could play this game, but that's probably unlikely given that awful hit that he took on Sunday. Even still, during a rough week with streamers, I think that Tannehill works at the Los Angeles Chargers defense. So you probably remember a handful of weeks ago I talked about this Chargers defense being a good stat According to Yahoo, their roster in just twenty one percent of leagues right now, so I want to bring it back up they get matchups against the Titans, Colts, and Rams during weeks fifteen through seventeen. Those are three pretty good matchups. With that being said, you might want to not use them against Tennessee Derrick Henry might run all over them. But the Colts and the Rams are top three matchups for fantasy defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed. So in weeks sixteen and seventeen, the Chargers could work. Add the Pittsburgh Steelers defense if you need a defense just for this week, Pittsburgh definitely works. Lamar Jackson is trending towards being out this weekend. That means Tyler Huntley is the team starter. You might remember Huntley's big thirty five point performance last year and you might think to yourself, this isn't that big of a downgrade. But I was shocked to see his numbers from last year. They were not very good. I was talking to the number five Ers Jim Sannis about this and he noted that Huntley's expected points added per drop back last year was minus point twelve. It was not good. And his five games with thirty plus attempts last season opposing defenses ranked in the top ten and weekly scoring in four of them. This Baltimore Pittsburgh game has just a thirty six and a half point over under. Pittsburgh's a three point favorite according to Fandels Sportsbook. So the Steelers with TJ. Wattmack, they get a backup quarterback whose team has an implied team total south of seventeen points. They make a ton of sense this week. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't for to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to check out lateround dot com otherwise, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show