2025 Men's World Championship Predictions, NCAA Surprises So Far

Hi volleyball fans and welcome back to Volley
Talk, the podcast created for volleyball lovers
who want to dig deep into what is going on in
NCAA and international volleyball. I'm your host
Sarah Pavan. I'm an Olympian, beach volleyball
world champion, former Nebraska Cornhusker, and
longtime pro, both indoor and on the beach. And
I'm Adam Schultz, former indoor player, international
volleyball coach, and the show's resident stat
guy. NCAA preseason is in full swing and men's
world championships have kicked off. So for all
you volleyball junkies out there, you have got
an endless supply of volleyball to watch these
days, depending on your preferences. It's fantastic.
And you should be watching both, I might add.
There's been some great volleyball around the
horn. 100%. So even though things are a little
slow on the world side, as they are as pool play
kind of. get started and stuff. The NCAA preseason
has been very exciting and there were several
great matchups again this past week. We've got
some world championship prediction action coming
at you this week. We're going to be revisiting
some fun segments from episodes past that we
haven't touched on in a while and we're pretty
excited about all of it. So let's get started.
So on the NCAA side, there wasn't a ton of movement,
but we had some big movement outside the top
10, I would say. So the biggest movers in the
top 25 were Penn State dropped to 12 from 5.
Izzy Stark going MIA, really. Tough stuff. Really
put a damper on that. They've had a rough go.
TCU jumped up to 15 from 24. Well earned. I watched
them play a bunch this week. Yes. They look good.
They've been doing a really good job. USC is
up to 16 from 22. I tried to watch their game
at LMU, and it was nowhere to be found. LMU hosted
a tournament, and I was trying to watch them,
and I couldn't find it anywhere. So I guess they
didn't show that one. LMU's got their feeds on
lockdown, apparently. Creighton went down to
number 18. They were at 13 the week before. Missouri
went down to 23 from 16. That is harsh. That's
tough. And UCLA somehow is still in the top 25.
I feel like that is done. By the time this episode
comes out, we might be proven right that that
is done. So they went down to 24 from 19. Those
were the big movers. I would say the only positives
in that were on the USC and the TCU side. The
rest, a little shaky. Things are evening out.
Teams are ending up where they are, let's say,
quote -unquote, supposed to be based on their
performance from the preseason kind of look and
place. I mean, how are you, like, preseason rankings,
how are you even supposed to know? theoretically,
this is what we're going to say. And then weird
stuff happens. We actually get the teams on the
court. We see the lineups and then it's like,
woo, way better than we thought or yikes, overestimated
that team. Things are kind of settling. The top
10, we had like micro movements here and there.
The only one that really disappeared was Penn
States. That's where we're standing on the NCAA
side. I put the call out last week for anybody.
who had some Izzy Stark news for us because the
people want to know. And by the people, I meant
me. We the people, Sarah Patton. And one of you
answered my call. Okay. Obviously, people talk.
People talk to their former coaches who then
pass on information to other people they know
because, like, Izzy Stark is a big deal in the
NCAA world. People have been talking. The news
that reached my eyeballs. Do we ever know for
certain if things like this are true? No, we
don't. But from the grapevine of like information
being passed. So I'm not going to get into details.
I will say thank you to this person for providing
the details. The gist of the situation seems
to be that there ended up being some tension
between Izzy and her friends slash teammates
regarding a part of her personal life. It seems
like Izzy felt the decision. It was either the
team or stick with this situation. She's no longer
with the team. So she decided to stick with her.
her personal situation. I mean, you see these
kind of things with young people. It's a tough
part in life where you're doing things for the
first time, you're having new experiences, you're
trying to mesh personal, school, basically a
professional athlete. And it's always tricky
too when like your friends, they have your back
or their intention is to have your back and maybe
you don't feel... supported supported so it seems
like a kind of a messy situation that kind of
blurred the lines between personal life and friendship
and team dynamics i know that was very vague
i don't want it to be vague but i'm keeping it
vague because Well, we don't have any substantiated
facts. It's all hearsay. The thing is, it's not
necessarily a personal tragedy. It is a situation
that she has control over and we were concerned
for her well -being. It seems that she is in
a position to make her own decisions and this
is the one she made. Again, I hope everything
works out for her. I hope Penn State can kind
of rally from this. big hit that they took because
I guarantee you none of the coaching staff, the
athletic department, the girls on the team, like
nobody saw this coming or intended for the season
to kind of take a turn this way, which is super
unfortunate given how short your eligibility
window is in college. And the expectation for
the program this season. Yeah, it's so tough.
Again, thank you to the person who reached out.
Obviously, I want to share more, but we will
keep that private. Speaking of Miscommunication
or misunderstanding. There were a plethora of
comments back and forth this week based off our
last episode, which I will say was thoroughly
engaging. I love a good discourse. I love a good
conversation. I don't love a good comment so
he can respond. I was responding to people who
were posting things. And then I saw some recurring
themes based off of our last podcast. And I want
to address them just so that there's no misunderstanding.
and that our opinions are clear. So first thing,
we got a lot of flack for talking about Italy's
poor performance in the semis and finals. Now,
let me say one thing, and then you can talk.
You can be a great player, and you can be a great
team, and you can have bad matches. Talking about
a poor performance... in comparison to what Italy
can generally do, does not mean we hate Italy.
It does not mean we think Seraphar is a bad player.
It does not mean any of those things. In fact,
it's quite the opposite. I think Italy's a great
team, the best in the world. I love their streak.
We have said on the record many times, Italy's
middles are the best in the world. I'm sorry,
Brazilian fans, but that's just the way it is.
And the other thing I will say, if you are injured,
and you choose to step on the court, nobody cares.
Your performance is your performance. You have
chosen to play, and being injured is not an excuse.
It's a reality, but if you're critiquing performance,
you have to critique it against your best play.
It was not up to par. Honestly, I don't understand
what the big deal is. You were telling me about
these comments. I do not understand what the
big deal is. The fact that, and we said it also,
like the fact that Italy was able to win while
not playing their best as a team speaks to how
good they are. Yes. People have come at us all
summer for loving Italy too much. Okay. And now
we say one thing and you guys are like, how dare
you? We are Italy fans. Absolutely. The fact
that they were able to win while they weren't
at their best makes them even more unbelievable.
100%. Okay. And let me tell you, I had knee surgery
last year. And I came back. Was I playing at
the same level I was pre -surgery because your
girl rushed back and was playing in a month after
the operation? No. And nobody cared that you
were injured. It's your performance on the court.
Anybody who watched me play last season would
be like, wow, she's not playing her best. No
kidding. Okay. The wounds on my knee were still
bleeding. Okay. And kudos to Oro and Farr for
playing injured. That's not what I'm saying,
but you still have to like. It is what it is.
You're playing. Are you playing your best? No,
you're injured. Who cares? That is the product
you're putting on the court. It's not your best.
It's a fact. Anyway. And when you can win and
not at your best, kudos to you, your team, and
your staff. 100%. One other thing I will say
is, add a little flack for the Anna Christina
comment. Oh, good grief. Now, let me clarify
what I meant for those of you who only listened
to one part of that comment. I'm pretty sure
I said it. You may have said it. Shocker. What
we said was, Gabi was... for all intents and
purposes, the only person scoring in that semifinal
against Italy. What we said was, if Brazil would
have had another player who was scoring alongside
of her, given the way that Italy was playing
in that current match, it could have tipped the
scales. That's all we said. We didn't say that
Ana Cristina playing, they would beat Italy all
the time. No, we never said that. a situational
statement based on observing that Gabi was the
only one who was scoring points consistently.
You guys, we were talking about the semifinal
match. Only. The match. That's what we were covering.
And I stand by it. If Ana Cristina had been on
the Brazilian side for that match, given how
both teams were playing, given how close the
match was, and Gabi was the only one scoring
at a super high level for Brazil, Brazil would
have won that semifinal. Period. So anyway. I
had fun with those comments this week, but I
thought I would address it for the wider public
because I saw the same comment over and over
and over a lot of times. I feel like we are sometimes
misunderstood. Maybe. And again. Or maybe not.
And you just wanted to come at us, which we also
love a great argument. So keep it coming. And
again, there's two things, right? If you're a
fan of a country and a team, you have a biased
opinion of. your team's ability. You don't want
to hear anybody talk negative about your team,
which is totally fine. That's a great way to
consume sports. But you're not looking at it
objectively. You know, it is what it is. Because
Women's World Championships ended last week,
we didn't get a chance to do our Men's World
Champs predictions like we did on the women's
side. So we're going to do it now, even though
a couple days of the tournament have already
elapsed. I'm not sure it changes all that much.
But Adam went through, similar to the women,
and pulled some predictions. But before that,
we have gotten a ton of questions. And so I wanted
to address a couple of them in this section.
The first one being, after looking at the rosters
for Worlds compared to the VNL rosters, which
country do you think is taking the biggest step
forward in terms of personnel? This person threw
out their opinion as Slovenia. I mean, the one
that comes to mind first is France. They brought
the big boys back. Some of the big boys were
back for V &L, but we're seeing the crew. Well,
and I think that they will play more. A couple
of the guys were there, they were in, they were
out. France's roster is their winning roster.
They showed up to play to win for this tournament.
I think they got better. I don't know all of
the rosters. Super familiar. So I'm probably
going to miss a few players here. But I also
think that Micah Christensen coming back for
the USA makes a big difference for them. I think
that's the biggest step. And Avril came back
for USA. But do I think that they tip the scales
the same way that the full squad for France does?
Not so sure. We also saw Germany brought back
their entire squad. Like Roers was back. We didn't
see him. We didn't see Brehm, I don't think,
in the VNL. Correct me if I'm wrong. We saw some
of them, like Grozer came back in week three,
etc. Crick. But we're seeing the full squad for
Germany. Canada made some substitutions. I don't
know how much better they are. They brought Jerome
the right side. Sharon Vernon. Yes, I believe
so. He's back. And Hoag. Hoag. I'm not thinking,
no, Canada's not the biggest upgrade. No, but
there are differences there. I don't know how
much better they are with Hoag. I'm not going
to lie. I'm not super familiar with Slovenia,
but looking at their roster, they are different.
So I'm going to take this listener's word for
that. I'm going to go France, Slovenia, and probably
USA. Made the biggest upgrades. I'll say France,
Slovenia, Germany. But Germany, we know, got
swept by Bulgaria. Yeah, not the best. Another
question we got that I'll address here is, what
is your opinion on naturalized players? So there
was a lot of back and forth about players in
France and players in Turkey who are not Turkish
or not Italian, typically. And I spent some time
thinking about this because it's a valid... And
I landed, if you don't change federations and
you have played for one country your whole career,
I have no problem with it. People grow up in
different places. There are different situations.
You move. You are born in one place. People travel
so much. I think my biggest issue with naturalized
players is if you actively try and change federations
so you can be successful. I would agree with
that. And I have no problem. with most of the
players that were kind of brought to attention
with that. You're in one federation the whole
time. You're developed there. You spent your
time there. You were a pretty globalized world
at this point. What are you supposed to do? I
know a lot of athletes, their parents played
pro in a country. They were born in said country.
So technically they're a citizen of the country.
You and I are currently in this situation. Yeah,
like our daughter, we are Canadian citizens.
Our daughter was born in the US. She is technically
American. So she can play for whichever country
she wants if she chooses to play volleyball.
I'm not sure of the details, but I feel like
Entropova fits into this. I think her dad played
pro in Italy and she was born in Italy. Maybe
that is not correct. But I think in a situation
like that, that we even saw with Zaitsev, whose
dad played in Italy professionally. If you're
born there, you are a citizen of that country.
So I agree with you. I think if you have played
for a federation and then... You take your two
years off, pay the fine, whatever, and switch
to be in a better situation. That is different.
And I think that countries that actively seek
out opportunities to do that. Shady. A little
bit shady. A little bit shady. All right. So
let's look at the world's pools. And I'm going
to start this by saying, yes. It's nonsense that
the Philippines is ranked number one. It throws
everything off. You've got some crazy brackets.
It's not the way it should be. Not even that
Philippines is number one, but going back to
this discussion from the women's, they do it
so far in advance that it's not even indicative
of the present time. Anyway, you know how I feel
about that. Not great, but here we go. I'm going
to go through each of the pools and I'm going
to rank them, the two teams that I think will
come out of those pools. One and two. Okay. And
then we'll go over the brackets. Are you doing
this based on the games that we know have happened
yet? So I'm going to put it based on the games
that have already happened, but I'm going to
highlight how those changed my picks. Okay. So
coming out of pool A, even though I ran lost,
I still think Iran is going to come out one in
that pool, and I think Egypt is going to come
out two. So Iran lost to Egypt, right? Yeah,
so Iran lost to Egypt, but I think... I think
that's going to end up being a tie. I think Egypt
will lose at least one other game, and I think
Iran is going to run through the other opponents.
I'm not sure Egypt will lose another game. I
think Iran will come out second, personally.
It's a possibility. Regardless, we're going to
end up in the same quarterfinal, but that's what
I think is going to happen. Pool B, I have Poland
coming out first, Netherlands coming out second.
Pool C, I have France coming out first, Argentina
coming out second, Argentina with reverse sweep,
squeaking it out. Against Finland? Yeah. Yeah,
that's wild. I'm going to say Cuba first in Pool
D and USA second in Pool D. Now, hear me out.
USA is upgraded, but my personal opinion is that
Cuba took Portugal lightly. They're a swagger
team. They play off emotion. They probably shouldn't
have lost that game, but I think they are going
to come to play against the USA. So I think that's
going to be a tie situation. So you think there's
going to be a three -way tie for first? I think
there's going to be a three -way tie for first
in that pool, and I think Cuba will end up coming
out ahead. That's my prediction. Pool E, I have
Bulgaria and Slovenia. Because Bulgaria swept
Germany already. Bulgaria swept Germany. I'm
not sure I would have had Germany beating either
of those two teams anyway. I thought the Bulgaria
-Germany game was going to be better than it
was. But that 40 -38 set won. Yikes. But Bulgaria
has been playing very well. They're feeling it
right now. I have Italy and Belgium coming out
of Pool F. That is based off Belgium upgrading
Ukraine or upsetting Ukraine. I would have had
Italy and Ukraine coming out of that pool. Ukraine,
I thought, played pretty well in VNL. There's
a fourth team in that pool. I think Algeria is
the other team in that pool, so that's going
to be a non -factor. Pool G. Now, this pool is
interesting, and this could go either way. I
have Turkey coming out first. Because they swept
Japan. What is happening? I mean, they caught
lightning in a bottle. I watched that match.
They couldn't do anything wrong. Everything went
their way, and nothing went Japan's way. You
had balls out by a fraction of an inch. Japan
hit, and all of Turkey A's went in. They had
amazing serving runs. They could do no wrong.
They passed so well. So I think they're going
to end up beating Canada, and I think Japan will
end up beating Canada. So I think Turkey A's
going to go undefeated in that pool, and Japan
will come out second. Dang. That will come down.
The Turkey A -Canada match will be very interesting,
so I'm looking forward to watching that. I'm
curious about Turkey A's consistency. It seems
to be a countrywide issue that we talk about
here. Yeah, we'll see. But Canada has the same
consistency issues. So I'm going to go with the
hot team here. Canada dropped a set already and
wasn't super crisp in their last match. Against
Libya. Yeah, I'm giving Turkey the edge there.
And then Brazil and Czechia coming out in Pool
H. So you think Czech is coming out ahead of
China and Serbia in that pool? I do. Holy, that's
a hot take. Well, they already beat Serbia, so
that's like a notch in my favor. Okay, fine.
I'm not sure it'll change the final result, though.
Given those pool predictions, here's how the
brackets play out. So on one half of the bracket
in the round of 16, I would see Iran versus Czech,
Brazil versus Egypt, Cuba versus Slovenia, and
Bulgaria versus USA. What? Okay. The quarterfinals,
that side of the bracket, would then be Iran
and Brazil. This is your prediction. This is
my prediction. So I think Iran will beat Czech.
I think Brazil will beat Egypt. I think Slovenia
will beat Cuba. I think Bulgaria will beat the
USA. Interesting. Then I have Brazil beating
Iran, and I have Slovenia beating Bulgaria. So
I think Bulgaria is going to beat Slovenia in
pool play, and then I think Slovenia will beat
them in the playoffs. They're in the same pool?
They're in the same pool. Oh, dear. And then
I think Brazil beats Slovenia to go to the final.
So that's one half of the bracket. Well, I mean,
Brazil and Slovenia, that is a pretty wide -open
half. I think Brazil and Slovenia are for sure
the top two teams in that. For me, the Slovenia
-Bulgaria game is a pick -em. Bulgaria, given
how they looked against Germany, they looked
real good. Alex Nikolov was on one, and they
just kept feeding him, and they could not stop
him. I think, ultimately, Slovenia will come
out on top, but... Okay, pretty wide open half
of the bracket, in my opinion. Yeah, agreed.
Now, to the second bracket. This is the same
as the women's situation, it seems like. I have
Poland versus Japan in the round of 16. In the
round of 16? Oh, yeah, because Japan screwed
up against Turkey. Screwed their pool up, so
that's wild. Then you have Turkey versus Netherlands.
Oh, my gosh. In the other one. The teams that
were literally scraping by in B &L, and one of
them did not scrape by. Correct. So then you
have France and Belgium and Argentina and Italy.
So for the quarters on that side, I have Poland,
Netherlands. I think Netherlands will end up
being... You think Netherlands is going to be
Turkey? I do. What? I think that Turkey is going
to... They're going to blow everything they have
in pool play and then call it quits. I think
they're going to pucker. Oh my gosh. I mean,
the men's side, anything can happen. Are you
just saying this stuff because on the men's side
anything can happen? Are you legit? Because Turkey
looked quite good. You think they're just going
to, they're peaking early in this tournament.
I do. I think that in the playoffs, it's not
going to go as well. Poland -Netherland, I think
Poland's going to end up winning that. I think
France beats Belgium. I think Italy beats Argentina.
I think for France -Italy, I'm giving the nod
to France. Well, if Italy doesn't mess up their
lineup like they did in the VNL final, maybe
they've got a better chance. Yeah, fair. I mean,
again, I think that game is going to be fantastic.
I think France edges them. And then you have
Poland -France on that side. Again, I think it's
going to be incredibly close. I think Poland
is playing so well right now. I understand that
France is going to be better with some of the
players they have, but Poland is playing so well
as a team. They're just... They're just clicking.
They look really good as a unit here in France.
Their whole team hasn't played together and hasn't
competed. In that regard, Poland's going to have
the edge here. I don't know who I would pick
between France and Italy. It's tough. These games
are going to be epic. I think that half of the
bracket is literally roll the dice. That's a
gauntlet. You've got three of the top four teams
in the world in that half. Ridiculous. For me,
I have a hard time figuring out who's going to
win between Italy and France. Fair. I think that,
if it does actually happen, is the match that
you need to tune into because I'm pretty sure
that Poland is going to advance on that side.
Yeah, I think that's, based on everything we've
seen from the summer, I think that that's a fair
assumption. I think the France -Italy game is
going to be epic. And then I think Poland will
probably beat Brazil in the final. I mean, which
lay -on is going to show up? That is a question.
I think their middles were looking good. Is their
right side going to show up? For Nall is usually
pretty consistent. But which? Leon is going to
show up. V &L, they were outstanding. That side
of the bracket is... the one I'm going to be
dialed into. Yeah. I don't know. It's so, things
are so straightforward, like not so straightforward,
but like easier to predict on the women's side.
It is so hard to predict on the men's side because
like we've talked about countless times, any
athlete can really go off. I'm choosing Poland
coming out of that side of the bracket. Would
I be surprised if Poland, France or Italy won
the tournament? No, of course not. If you're
looking at me right now and saying, pick a team.
I just, I liked the way Poland played. I liked.
The attitude of their coach. I like what they
have going on right now. Those factors for me
gives me the edge for Poland. Gerbic is the star
for me. He's outstanding. Hold a gun to my head
for sure. Okay, I'll pick Poland. But I'm obsessed
with their coach more than anything. I'm curious
to see France come back with their full roster.
Are they gelling? Are they in sync? Is everything
happening the way it should be? I mean, they're
the Olympic. champions like clearly capable of
winning we just haven't seen that roster together
yet gelling and clicking on all cylinders and
I think for me that's why I'm giving Poland the
slight edge. Okay did you take a look at what
things could have looked like had they done the
rankings closer to the tournament or if Philippines
had taken the eight seed instead of the one seed?
I did look at that and honestly it's not that
much different. Really? If you did the rankings
as of today and you just put, or you put Philippines
at eight, you'd have Poland, France, USA, Philippines
in one bracket. And you'd have Italy, Brazil,
Slovenia, Japan. You think Philippines would
have made it out of the pool? No, I'm not saying
that, but I'm saying that the top of that pool.
I didn't go through and do like one to 24 with
all of the different brackets, but the top teams,
Poland, France. USA, Philippines would be kind
of in that. Yeah, but I still feel like you need
to have two top teams in each side. I think that
that is way more fair. Well, 100%. Or indicative
of how the summer has gone than what it currently
is. Well, definitely. You have Italy and Brazil
on one side. You have Poland and France on the
other. Which, fair. Fine. And in fairness. Japan
should have been in the other bracket. They're
another top team, but they blew a match, you
know, for this one. So again, you're essentially,
for all intents and purposes, moving Italy from
one side of the bracket to the other, which makes
it more fair. I mean, we're just getting underway
with Worlds here. And like we said, I mean, there
have been a few upsets here, but the good matches
are going to come. this week as we see some more
high -level pool play, as we move into playoffs.
That's kind of the preview. I think next week
we'll have way more to talk about. There are
going to be some gnarly five -setters. There's
going to be some upsets. There's going to be
some things that we weren't expecting. So we'll
dive into that more. But here, these are the
early predictions and my bracket choices, and
we'll see what the week brings on the men's side.
Let's move to the NCAA. I got a couple things
I want to do here. We had four pretty big matches
this week that came up. I want your thoughts,
not necessarily on how the matches played out,
but were you surprised by the results, what it
does for the rankings? Then we've got a little
game. I want to play Pavin's percentages. I think
I got some bangers for this week. And we can
talk about a few surprises and a positive light
for NCAA. We had four, I thought, really good
matches this week with ranked teams. So we had...
Texas -Louisville, that's a 2 -4 with Texas winning
3 -2. Give me your overall thoughts of that.
Okay, well we saw that Texas beat Stanford in
a reverse sweep last Sunday. Then they turned
around and beat Louisville in a reverse sweep
two to three days later, whatever it was. Do
I love that they are having to come back from
0 -2 down? No, but I think the fact that they're
able to turn the tables on these highly ranked
teams and find a way to win this early in the
season bodes well for them long term. It's not
great to get down, but the fact that they're
finding ways to win and they're rallying. Troy
Stafford is stepping up in those moments we saw.
Kari Spears is getting great experience. She's
putting up some really good numbers. I think
you need to be tested early to really capitalize
on those moments later in the season. And so
I think this is looking good for Texas. Honestly,
Louisville. I thought that I would like them
more than I am. I saw them play a couple times
this week. I'm not loving their point scores.
They don't have anybody who's scoring at a high
level consistently. They're trying to force the
ball to Cressy whenever they can. Which is a
good strategy. And they came out and said, we
want to get her the most attempts ever. Okay,
great, but why don't we go for a super high hitting
percentage or something? I mean, it's great to
run the middle that much. As you all know, we
are huge advocates of that. But you still need
somebody to put the ball away outside of that.
You're never going to be able to set your middle
more than everybody else. So, you know, whether
that's Chacoin, and, you know, I don't think
that she's a go -to hitter. I think she's good.
I think she can score you some points. But that
one player, that person that you can set to score,
I just haven't seen that from them yet. And I'm
not sure where that's going to come from. I mean,
their right side is a true freshman. They have
Chacoin who isn't doing... Skilled but undersized.
She's not scoring at a super high level. Peyton
Peterson, I'm sorry, is not it. Chacoin and Peterson
on the outside, that's just not... The combo
with a freshman right side. There's a lot of
question marks on the outsides for Louisville.
They're scrappy still. They're playing good defense.
They still have those Louisville hallmarks that
we expect to see from them. Honestly, I think
they're ranked too high. I don't think their
schedule has been super hard yet. Coming into
the season, though, I was like, yeah, they totally
deserve that ranking for sure. But then seeing
them play, I'm like, yeah, I think they're going
to drop. I agree with you. Those were signature
wins for Texas. I was really impressed. They
have a young roster, and you saw some errors
down the stretch, but they found a way. to level
out. I liked Spears on the right. I thought Stafford
did an excellent job over these last three matches
because they just beat Arizona State 3 -0. And
I just want to throw out, for all of you who
said that we were hating on Texas, we have got
Torrey Stafford, Kari Spears, and Aiden Ames
on our fantasy team, so tell me that's hating
on Texas, okay? Fair. Again, I think for me,
a few of the questions that we said we had...
For Texas, I think they've answered. Their first
year stepped up. We literally saw them play their
first two matches. I'm still not a swindle fan.
I think that that's their area of weakness. I
get that she's a good blocker. She's big. I just
don't love the offense that she runs. I don't
think she connects with the middle super well.
And I think her sets outside are a little inconsistent.
But really good week for Texas. Pitt going 3
-0 against Kentucky. Not going to lie, that shocked
me. I expected Kentucky to win that one. Honestly,
I expected way more from Kentucky, given I was
all about them, you know, heading into this week.
I thought they looked really good. Pitt, I thought,
was struggling a little bit heading into this.
I'm sorry. Kentucky's block defense, I was like,
what is your game plan here? Olivia Babcock,
I think, swung like a thousand other than hitting
a couple balls out. What is your blocking scheme
here? What's your defensive game plan? I turned
to Adam partway through the match and I was like,
has Kentucky dug any balls this match? They looked
unprepared to play. Pitt has become a little
one -dimensional. It's very clear what their
plan is. You know who you have to stop. Serve
tough, get the middle out of it. The ball's going
to Babcock. Okay. And Babcock is good, but you're
big. Brooklyn delay is big. You need to be able
to get, you're not going to stop Olivia Babcock,
but you can't let her score as many points as
she did. That was, I was shocked at the outcome
of that one. Hey, with your thoughts on TCU beating
Texas A &M 3 -2, TCU being ranked 15th, Texas
A &M being ranked 8th. Honestly, I'm liking TCU.
Me too. More than I thought I would. Yes. Coming
into the season, I was like, oh, my gosh, they
lost Melanie Parra. Where are they going from
here? They have had some players who were on
the bench coming off the bench last year step
into key roles, and they're doing a really good
job. I have been pleasantly surprised with TCU.
A &M, but Nicky, okay. she's doing her thing
but like their left sides are lacking for me
I see it was bad I see the direction that Texas
A &M wants to go you can watch them play and
see there's a style they want there's a system
they're trying to implement it's not consistent
yet but I can see the vision that Jamie has for
the team I think he's a very good coach I think
they're going to come around I think they will
be Good once they figure it out, but I did expect
them to beat TCU. They're big. But honestly,
I didn't love A &M's left sides last year either.
Yeah, I would say that's where they're lacking.
I don't think it's as bad as it showed in that
match. I think they will be better than that.
I can talk a lot about TCU and the intangible
things that I'm really liking about them, but
they are the biggest shock for me right now.
In a good way. So that leads us into the next
thing I wanted to talk about. I was going to
ask you, you know, we're three weeks in. What
have been your biggest surprises? And you can
go either positive or negative. I've got three
positive ones. Things that caught you off guard
or you were unexpected about at this point in
the season. Okay. Number one, TCU. Just talked
about it. That's probably my biggest surprise
right now in a good way. A negative surprise
for me is Virginia Adriano for Nebraska. I expected
way more from her. I mean, I haven't checked
the stats, but like last week I checked her stats
and she was hitting 094 on the season. I did
not see that coming. You're coming from an Italian
A2 environment where the level is pretty good
and you're telling me you can't get it together?
We had her on our fantasy team. She's on the
bench now. Yeah. Okay. She is a negative surprise
for me. Kari Spears. Ah, she was on my list.
I would say is a big surprise in a good way.
Obviously, she came in very highly touted. Lots
of hype around her. I wasn't sure. Like, as a
freshman, you're never sure the leap from the
high school U19 level to college. But I think
she has stepped into her role seamlessly. So
that has been a positive surprise for me. Okay,
those are my top three, the ones that jumped
out at me right away. So the ones I had, mine
were all player -specific, not team -specific.
I agree, Spears, pleasantly surprised. She's
got 60 kills already on the season on 137 attempts
and is hitting 270 with 10 blocks and 31 digs.
So those stats, especially for a freshman coming
in. Pressure -packed situation on a top -five
team. I mean, obviously they're ranked second.
Really impressive. I like watching her play.
She's a great athlete. The other one for me,
and this is both a positive, I think, and a negative,
Noemi Glover. for Arizona State I watched her
play in the first couple of weeks and I thought
man this is an athlete I really liked the way
she was playing the way she was swinging her
attitude on the court technically I thought she
was very good unfortunately she got hurt I saw
her on the bench with crutches so I don't know
how long she's going to be out but I don't think
she played against Texas did she no she was out
at that point I think she's going to be very
good long term for them She had 55 kills on 112
sets and was hitting .339 on the season up until
that point. So I think that's a bright spot for
Arizona State, and she surprised me. I didn't
know who she was coming in, but I really like
the way she plays. And the last one I had is
freshman setter Cassie O 'Brien for Kentucky.
There's a team that has high expectations. They
had a very good setter last year. You have a
freshman coming in. Well, and she earned that
spot too. They had a different setter playing.
You've got big hitters in Brooke DeLay and Eva
Hudson. You've got good middles. Expectations,
like I said, are very high for that program.
Okay, I want to play a game here. We haven't
done that in a while. We've been all business
with World Championships and International Volleyball,
but it's time to lighten things up. I got a few
spicy ones for you. What are we playing? Patterns
percentages. So I'm going to make a statement.
Ooh, it's been a while, everybody. I'm going
to make a statement, and I want you to give me
the percent chance that you think it will happen.
Okay. So the first one, and we've talked about
this already, but I'm going to add a little flair
to it. What is the percent chance that Izzy Stark
ends up in Texas next year? I'm going to go,
because nothing is certain, I'm going to go 90%.
That's a high number. Yes. So, A, I think those
Penn State bridges are burned. I agree. Floating
down that river current. Okay. They are gone.
If you listen to the coach, Katie Schumacher's
interview, when asked about Izzy, her response
was a little cold, and it was just, we wish her
the best. So that seems like it's finished. Yeah.
So don't think she's going back to Penn State.
If this also fits Texas's MO of just, like, scooping
up whoever they can, I think Izzy Stark makes
them way better. And I think you told me Izzy
Stark's mom played for Texas. Izzy Stark's mom
played for Texas, so there's that connection.
I don't think Ella Swindle's the answer, honestly.
I just don't think she's it. But I think Izzy
Stark in the mix. Dang. I think Jared Elliott
has mailed a check to Izzy Stark's house with
the Texas logo on the envelope. And it's just
kind of sitting there saying, hey, whenever you're
ready. Okay, we're going to stay on the Texas
theme. What do you think the percent chance is
that Texas goes undefeated this season leading
into the tournament? 25%. Ooh, I think I would
be a little higher than that. I just think it's
so hard this day and age to... win out there
are so many good programs the SEC is a really
good conference we're talking they've got Kentucky
they've got Florida they've got A &M they've
got like a lot of good programs in that conference
and to the the depth of the field is just so
much bigger now I think it would be incredibly
impressive if they did pull it off but I I think
it's unlikely I was going to say 30%. I think
those two. Oh, my gosh. You were like, oh, 25.
That's crazy. Mine's so much higher. 30. I really
liked. I thought you were going to be like 50.
No, no. Your points are well made. But I really
like the grit that they showed. They're refusing
to lose. And I think when you build that culture,
especially with freshmen starting, you don't
know any different. You've come in and you expect
to win. It doesn't matter. And they beat ranked
teams like that. So I think, like you said, it's
tough to go undefeated. It's tough to be that
consistent, especially when you're young and
inexperienced. But I think they have a shot to
do it because I've liked the grit and the intangibles
I saw on the court in this past week. All right,
we're going to keep talking about the portal.
What percentage do you think that Kennedy Martin
ends up in the portal at the end of this season?
Oh, dear. I would be so mad if I was Kennedy
Martin, honestly. She has to be. I would be so
mad. I think it's low. I think she'll stay. I
heard that Penn State picked up a really good
setter to replace Izzy Stark, though. So I think
she's going to stay. Percent chance she'll enter
the portal. I'm going to say 51. What? I think
she came to Penn State to win a national championship.
I heard that they picked up a really good setter,
though. But even still... I mean, it's not Izzy
Stark, but... They're not that good right now.
And I'm not sure that just replacing... Izzy
Stark was more than just a setter for them. She
was their leader. She was a whole lot of things
for that program. And I'm not sure that you can
just replace that with a good setter. I don't
think they're going to have a particularly great
season. And I think Kennedy Martin picked a school
where she thought she could win. And if that
realization is off the table at the end of the
season... I can see her leaving one more time.
Dang. All right, we're going to stick in the
NCAA. What is the percent chance that UCLA finishes
in the bottom third of the Big Ten? Well, they
went in preseason ranked number four in the Big
Ten. I think that was generous. I don't think
they're going to finish in the bottom third.
I think they'll finish in the top half, but definitely
not. I don't think they'll finish top five in
the Big Ten. But there's 18 teams, top nine.
Percent chance that they'll finish in the bottom
third, 30%. Okay. There's still a chance. And
my last one, we're going to move to international
volleyball because I had a couple questions come
across the feed, which I thought were interesting.
What is the percent chance that Catherine Plummer
starts on the right side for the U .S. next summer?
I don't hate the idea. I don't hate the idea,
but... She's kind of a lumberer, you know what
I mean? You look at the world's top right sides
and like, yeah, they're big, but they're not
like lumbering athletes. I don't think she's
built for out -of -system play as a right side.
They don't have anybody who can do that right
now. For me, when I actually start thinking about
this, I'm like, okay, I want Avery Skinner, Sarah
Franklin. and Catherine Plummer on the floor.
I think those are your best outsides, depending
on who else comes back. I think at this point,
because they don't have somebody playing on the
right side, I would try it and see how it looks.
Yeah, I think I would try it. Is the percent
chance that she'll play there at some point?
Yeah, what is the percent chance you see her
on the right side at some point for the U .S.
next summer? Well, I've heard it thrown out that
Logan Eggleston should play on the right side.
I think it's low. I mean, I don't hate the idea.
I'm not sure they're going to do it. I'm bullish
on this. I think that they need to find an answer.
And I don't think their experiments on the right
side went well this year. I think you're going
to see a whole... I think priority number one
for them is to find a right side in this next
thing. And you're going to see a whole bunch
of athletes there. So I'm 60 % that she gets
a start on the right side. All right, that's
the Pavens percentages. I like these. We haven't
done a game in a while. Yeah, I got to keep bringing
them back. NCAA season brings out the games.
Yeah, there's so much to talk about in NCAA that
it's easier to kind of do it in this regard and
have some fun with it. No more games next week.
Maybe we'll bring your dad in next week and we'll
play a game with him. All right, it is time for
listener questions. Okay, so question one. Catherine
Plummer, do you think she's overrated or underrated?
I think it's been too long for me having seen
her play to answer that question. I mean, she
was super hyped in college. She was a very good
college athlete. I'm not sure how her pro season
went in Turkey. She didn't look great at Champions
League, but I don't know how she was during the
rest of the season. And I also, I'm not sure
what the expectations of her are. Is public perception
that she's the savior of USA Volleyball, what
the expectations are? So it's a good question,
but I need to see her play in this team. My feeling
is overrated. And I think that's also why, if
we go back to her being on the right side, I
think that's why I was so hesitant about it.
I don't think I love her as much as a lot of
people do. Question two. Who would you guys say
is the best active setter in men's volleyball
and why? Also in women's volleyball. I think
I'm going to go with the Italian setters for
both men and women. I mean, I know that we hate
Oro because she... play two bad matches with
a sprained ankle. So that obviously means that
we think she's terrible. She's fantastic. She
leads that team. I like her decisions. She's
good defensively. She's well -rounded in all
parts of her game and her delivery. She knows
who to feed. I feel that she understands her
teammates really well in terms of who's on, who
do I need to get going? Do I need to set Scylla
here? Do I need to run the middles? Does Iganu
need a few more sets? It's... Just her whole
feel and approach, along with her delivery, I
think sets her apart on the women's side. I'm
not sure it's even close, to be honest, on the
women's side. I mean, for men, I think the discussion
usually comes down to Broussard versus Gianelli.
I think Broussard, the speed of his offense is
impressive. I think he makes spectacular plays.
But I would argue that Gianelli... is more consistent
and Janelli's size allows him to do some things
offensively that are quite interesting. So I
think I'm going to agree with you. Janelli and
Oro. Do you think that... Nikolov has a chance
to take that title at some point. I think an
argument could be made for that for sure. I think
some of his decision -making as to when to take
certain offensive risks or set selection, he's
young and he has a tendency to want to make the
most spectacular set. all the time instead of
maybe the smarter set. So I think as he matures
and understands when to take certain risks versus
play it safe, I think he can definitely, there's
an argument there for him for sure. Question
three, international men's game. Are the middles
getting smaller? It seems like the top middles
right now, like Flavio, Koschanowski, Lozer,
are smaller than the ones a few years ago where
it seemed like there were 6 '11 giants at the
highest level. Is this a trend or am I just cherry
picking? Without it being about size, I think
it's more about mobility. The speed of the game
is becoming faster. So if you have a 6 '11 guy
or a 7 '1, who can't close the block, he's a
liability. So I'd rather have a 6 '9 middle or
a 6 '8 middle who's a little more springy who
can get there and close the block. So now if
you have a 7 '1 guy who moves that well, you're
going to take him. You want that. But I think
the focus is a little bit more on ability to
move laterally so you can make those decisions
and be a little quicker than just having sheer
size in the middle. To answer your question,
I think maybe you're cherry picking because just
off the top of my head, I'm thinking of Crick
from Germany. Pretty sure he's seven feet tall.
You've got Simon from Cuba, who's 6 '10", I believe,
6 '11", close to that. You've got the Slovenian
middle, seven feet. Like that's just like off
the top of my head. I think the Polish middles
are quite big. Those three right there. And then
the Russian middles. I mean, we haven't seen
Russia for a while, but their middles were also
close to seven feet as well. So there's a mix,
I would say, for sure. And all of those middles
you mentioned are very good laterally. They move
well. They don't move like a traditional quote
-unquote, and I hate saying this, but seven -foot
middle. Yeah. All right. Question four. As a
non -volleyball player and just relatively clueless,
I'm a passionate fan of the sport. It's hard
for me to identify good setters as opposed to
identifying good hitters. A lot of people talk
about Alessia Oro as a very good setter. So how
do you identify that? Like, what should I as
a viewer look out for to identify her skills?
What sets her apart from other setters? And is
there even a bad setter at the top level? This
is a great question. I have kind of a flippant
answer, and then I have maybe a little more technical
answer. Okay. So my flippant answer is it's just
pretty to watch. Which is not the answer you're
looking for. No, but you watch some setters come
out, and just the way the ball comes out of their
hand, the way it moves, the way they flick their
wrist, the way they come into the ball, it's
smooth, it's controlled, it's poetry. It's not
a great answer. But for somebody who doesn't
understand the sport, that smoothness and I think
watching the delivery of the hands is one way
to kind of pick it out. I think because volleyball
is typically shown on TV from the side view,
you can often see when the ball leaves the setter's
hand, you can see if it takes a path towards
the net, if it stays straight, you can see if
it flares backwards off the net. A good indicator
on a setter's consistency is also to watch the
hitter and watch their rhythm. If you see a hitter
kind of have to jump backwards or they're floating
towards the net and having to try to fix the
ball by tipping or jousting at the net, that
is a sign of inconsistency. If a hitter looks
in rhythm, their approach is smooth, and they're
able to make whatever choices they want, the
ball is where they expect it. You can also look
at other side of the net and see how many blockers
are in front of a hitter. So blockers are often
watching the setter and reading their body and
stuff to make decisions of where to go. So if
you're seeing a hitter hit against one blocker
or one and a half blocks, the setter is doing
a really good job of being deceptive. And if
you're seeing a hitter constantly hitting in
front of a solid double or even a triple block,
maybe a little more obvious. Obviously, passing
has something to do with that. But those are
some things that you can kind of look at the
hitter's body and the flow into the ball to hit
it and how many blocks they're hitting in front
of. I mean, when you ask about bad setters, if
you're setting for a national team that is competitive,
you don't have bad. setters, necessarily. But
you, I mean, again, there's degrees of how good
you are. You can look at decision making, you
can look at consistency of out -of -system setting,
or how do you deliver balls off the net. Things
like that will separate, you know, good from
great at that level. Our last question of the
day. What are your thoughts on Brazil using Gabi
on a 3 -2 combo? Do you think more women's teams
should try to run it? I love when they do it,
but I think the reason it's so effective is the
timing. Yes. Teams are aware that Brazil has
this play in their arsenal, but they don't use
it. They use it maybe once a set. And it's usually
like towards the late middle, around like 18,
19 points that they bring it out. So like, even
though a team is prepared, you're going through
this whole set. And they're not using it. So
it kind of, they like lull you to sleep. You
know what I mean? And then just when you've kind
of forgotten about it, that's when they run it.
I also think you need the athlete to do it. Gabi's
step closes really well and she's super dynamic.
So she can kind of float out like she's going
to go outside and then close to that ball pretty
quickly. And it's not. so obvious and she's very
athletic and very dynamic so she's able to hide
that better i think japan could use those plays
way more than they do with the athletes and the
personnel that they have i think a team like
turkey for example it would not be effective
not so much their athletes are bigger the way
they move is not the same certain teams could
make use of it and japan is the one that kind
of comes to mind for me we move through those
questions fast today you guys Okay, we made sure
to hit a couple in the World Champs discussion.
These are good. Love the questions. These are
great. Keep them coming. I know I say it every
week, but, you know, I mean it. All right. Here
are the highlights for the week. Can I just step
in and be like, I think I was out to lunch last
week because all the games that I said that you
should watch last week were actually the ones
for this week. So sorry about that. Sleep deprived
baby brain. Don't know what I, yeah, I was out
to lunch. Anyway, continue. So looking forward
to this week, here's what we think you guys should
be watching. So if we look at the men's world
championships, Wednesday at 2 a .m. Eastern,
you can watch it. on FIVB TV at a later date
of your choosing but Canada versus Turkey that's
going to be for who comes out of that pool yeah
potentially so I think that game has a lot of
ramifications and I think the skill could be
pretty close and consistency will be a question
there so that'll be a good one to watch Wednesday
at 5 30 a .m eastern so a little later you might
be awake but USA versus Cuba yeah USA versus
Cuba. Again, that's going to be probably for
first in the pool. And as I've predicted, I think
Cuba is going to come out with a little swagger.
So I'm looking forward to seeing that one personally.
And then another great one Thursday at 6 a .m.
Eastern is going to be France and Argentina.
That will be for first in the pool, most likely.
Our NCAA schedule, and this is the one that Sid
mentioned last week. But we got Wednesday at
7 p .m. Eastern, Pitt and Penn State. Both programs
who are Penn State more than Pitt, but trying
to right the ship. So that'll be a good game.
Wednesday at 9 p .m. Eastern, Texas versus TCU.
TCU's playing well right now. You know, as you
said, Texas has a few young athletes, so we'll
see if they can keep that consistency going.
Thursday, 6 p .m. Eastern, Kentucky and Louisville.
That might be my pick of the week overall. I
think that's going to be a great match. Sunday
at 1 p .m. Eastern, we've got Florida and Wisconsin.
And then Sunday at 6 p .m., we've got Kansas
versus Creighton. Bottom line is there's a ton
of great volleyball to watch. You cannot go wrong.
So those are just our top 10, almost, picks.
That concludes this week's episode of Volley
Talk. There's always something shaking in the
volleyball world, and we hope you enjoyed this
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