1070: 15 Transactions for Week 16

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacherthis j J zacher reefon what's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten seventy of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Just a reminder, but with it being week sixteen, this fifteen transactions episode, it's very, very focused on waiver wire ads only. It's essentially just a giant waiver wire column for you. There aren't any buys and sells, as we've established in the past. Another thing to point out, though, is that I don't have a ton of drop transactions. I actually have gotten some emails from people where they're like, Hey, all of these ads they're great, but what about fifteen drops that I can make? And I get that. But my response is the process for creating content around drop candidates it's a lot different than ad candidates. You see with ad recommendations. I'm giving you a rundown in the up to date landscape and fantasy football injuries happen, Players emerge, they become talking points, they become guys that we won on our rosters. With drops, we're talking about like hundreds of potential players. The consideration set is really really big. But for ads, we may only care about ten to fifteen players each week because not many low rostered players have a chance to truly help our fantasy rosters. That's why there's always going to be far more ads than drops. And that's the case once again this week. Now let's get these rosters of the Fantasy Championship ad Michael Carter. So how fitting is it that with two weeks to go, we're still talking about this Arizona Cardinals backfield. It feels like we've been doing this every single week since late September. We've seen a rotation of running backs in Arizona all year. But here's where it currently stands. It's Michael Carter and Amari de Mercado. James Connor's been done for the season for a while now, Trey Benson wasn't able to get off ir and then Bam Knight hurt his ankle in Week fifteen. He was carted off and now his injury is being reported as a bad sprain. So hypothetically, if this is the Carter de Mercado show from here on out, Michael Carter should be in store for some fantasy production. You might remember this, but we saw sort of this same scenario in Week five. That was before Bam Knight kind of emerged as a relevant piece in this offense. In that Week five matchup against Tennessee, Carter had a solid fifty nine percent snapshare. He saw seventy two percent of the team's running back rushes. This past week, in a negative game script against Houston, Carter had a seventy eight percent running back rush share and an eighty percent snapshare. Now those numbers are really high. I don't think they're going to be that high over the next couple of weeks because of Mario de Mercado in Week fifteen, it was his first game back from injury that Bam Knight's sprained ankle had occurred mid game. So I don't know if we're gonna see Michael Carter as like a true bell cow in this Cardinals offense over the next two weeks. But like a seventy percent running back rush share in a few targets per game, that's definitely in his range of outcomes over these next two And Arizona gets Atlanta and Cincinnati to close out the fantasy season, those are two great matchups for running backs. So Michael Carter. In my opinion, he's the top waiver wire ad. He should be rostered everywhere. Add Jaden Reid. So hopefully you already have Jaden Reid because I talked about him on this show over the last few weeks. But if not, you should really consider adding him this week. He's not running a crazy number of routes. We know that's going to be the case in this Green Bay offense, but his target shairs have been okay over the last two games. His two games since returning from injury, he's had a nineteen percent and seventeen percent target share that's resulted in ten total targets. He's caught nine of those for eighty six yards. Now the Packers get the Bears and the Ravens to close out the fantasy season. The Bears are first in the NFL and adjusted fantasy points allowed to slot receivers this year, and Baltimore has been a top half matchup for slot wideouts too. And then all the while, Christian Watson's banged up, so Jayden Reid could be startable over the next couple of weeks and in deeper formats because of that Watson injury, you could look at Romeo Dobbs too hold or drop Stefon Diggs. I'm very concerned about Stefan Diggs in fantasy football. It's been a really bad three weeks for him. Digs has seen weaker route shares for most of the season, but three of his five lowest route participation rates have come over the last three games, and naturally, he hasn't seen high target shares as a result. He said target shares of nine percent, thirteen percent, and eighteen percent over his last three That comes after two games where his shares were twenty eight percent and thirty three percent, And honestly, those two games that's what's keeping the hold within this transaction. Otherwise he'd be a drop because look, what if the Patriots just decide to use Digs more in this offense. We have no real reason as to why his route share has been below sixty percent over his last three games, But what if they use him more then there could obviously be some usability. You just right now can't confidently play him this week against Baltimore. They do get the Jets next week, though, so if we do see that uptick and route share, maybe you can use him in Week seventeen with all that being said, though, I do think this is a potential drop situation. This could be a sabotage drop situation. That's if you want to play this a little bit riskier. You send Stefan Diggs as the waiver wire and you hope that someone in your league picks him up and starts him based on name value, not realizing that he's had horrible usage over his last three games. But look, I said this in the newsletter, I'll say it here. I'm just the deliverer of information here, and that information is at Stefan Diggs. At the very least, He's going to be very hard to plug into your lineup here. In Week sixteen, add Jalen Cocher. I think Jalen Coke poker is kind of an interesting ad this week. He's been getting it done recently. He scored seventeen point four and fourteen point zero PPR points over his last two games. He had eleven point four back in week eleven. That's on target shaars over his last two of thirty percent and nineteen percent. And the Panthers get the bucks this week Tampa Bay. They've been relatively good as a matchup for wide receivers this year, and the Bucks at the very least, they've allowed nearly thirty passing yards per game over expected. That's one of the worst rates in football. So for deeper leaguers, you could add Jalen Coker ad Malik Davis. Javonte Williams hurt his shoulder on Sunday night, and while he did return to that game in the second half, he was kind of just used sporadically. It wasn't his normal workload. In his place was Malik Davis. He ran thirteen routes according to PFF to Williams one against the Vikings. Davis has actually not been that bad this year in limited action. According to ext Stats, Davis is a rushing yards over expected per rush a plus one point four yards and he yards after contact per attempt of four point four. Those numbers are both better than where Javonte Williams is at, and Davis he also leads that backfield in success rate. That's not to say that he's better than Javonte Williams. There's a skill in handling a big workload. Don't get me wrong. I'm just saying Malik Davis has not been that bad. And when you watch him, you can see some of that explosiveness. So if Williams does miss time with his shoulder, I'd expect Davis to see a decent amount of work at Jalil McLoughlin. Another running back injury to monitor is with RJ. Harvey. He departed Week fifteen's matchup against the Packers late in the game with an injury to his ribs. If he were to miss some time, we'd probably see a backfield split with Jaalil McLoughlin and Tyler Bidet. I think McLoughlin would likely take on more work. But here's the thing. The next two weeks not the easiest matchups in the world. They get the Jags, who have been good against running backs, and then Kansas City also been good against running backs. But if Harvey's out, there could be some usability with McLaughlin add Jacorey krossky Merritt. Chris Rodriguez was a true game time decision in Week fifteen and he ended up not playing. That tells me that he was probably close to playing in that game, which means this transaction is pretty iffy, though to be fair, I think that's the case for a lot of these transactions. This week. We don't have all of the injury information that we need. But ja Corey, Krossky Merrit he just took on Chris Rodriguez's role and standard bill form. He saw a decent amount of work on the ground. He actually saw season high eighteen carries and he didn't see a single target. Jerry McNichols continued to play that pass catching role. Now there's always a chance that Rodriguez is just out again this week, so you could add Krosskey Merritt off the waiver wire. Just keep in mind they play the Eagles this week. It's not necessarily an amazing matchup. Hold Justin Jefferson. Honestly, guys, it's crazy that this transaction even exists. But there were a couple of people who messaged me after Minnesota's Week fifteen game against Dallas asking if they should drop Justin Jefferson, and I would not drop Justin Jefferson. Now, are you possibly gonna bench him? I mean possibly yes. He scored fewer than five PPR points in each of his last three games. Outside of that stretch, He's done that only five times throughout his entire career. It's been really bad for Justin Jefferson. But there is some good news. Jefferson had a thirty three percent target chair against the Cowboys on Sunday night, and even after that matchup against Dallas, Minnesota wideouts have the second best schedule in all of football, according to my justin Fantasy points allowed numbers. They get the Giants and the Lions. Look guys. At the end of the day, you don't want to be the person dropping Justin Jefferson for some random defense to watch your league mate pick him up and start him against you in the finals. Sometimes this time of year, you just need to keep guys in roster, even if you're not totally into starting them that week. At Jawar Jordan. Many of you saw Jawar Jordan pop up on Sunday for the Texans and you thought who. One of the many benefits of doing the Late Round Prospect Guide each year is that when these random players pop up, I quickly remember their backstory and the kind of prospect that they were. With Jordan, the thing that kind of came to my mind, well, it wasn't that great. He's an undersized running back who didn't have a good collegiate production profile. Not only that he ran a four five six p forty, So he's undersized and he wasn't that fast either. Honestly, I never expected Jawar Jordan to have fifteen rush attempts in a single NFL game in his career. The fact that he did this past weekend props to him. But hey, sometimes opportunity is all that matters at running back, especially in a plus matchup. And if Woody Marks who hurt his ankle on Sunday, if he can't go this week, and if Nick Chubb is still sidelined, then Jordan could be in store for some fantasy production because the Texans they get a great matchup against the Raiders. They rank Hiss the seventh easiest matchup by justin points allowed to running backs. With all that being said, I wouldn't go crazy for Jordan off the waiver wire because things sound optimistic with Woody Marx, add Evan Hall, and Addric Estime. Hey look, more running back injuries in Week fifteen. This time it was to Devin Neil. He had a hamstring injury against the Panthers. He didn't return to that game. That left a pure fifty to fifty split backfield with Evan Hall and Odric Estime. Now, if Devin Neil is out this week, assuming Alvin Kamara is too, we're gonna see both Hall and Estimate get some work. Usually I wouldn't care that much about this. I mean, honestly, if we have a split backfield there, how usable are these running backs actually gonna be? But New Orleans can actually see a neutral or positive game script this week they get the Jets. Now, when it comes to these running backs as prospects, Hall was actually a really good pass catcher. That's what he did in college. He was a three down back. He got a lot of work. Oddric Estimey was not that he didn't see that much work as a receiver. But in Week fifteen, it was Estimate who was on the field during the two minute offense. Evan Hall seemed to be more of the early down option. But because the Saints get the Jets this week, that game might be closer and as a result, I'm gonna lean Evan Hall over addric Estime. But honestly, guys, it's anyone's guess, and I would only be getting these players in deeper leagues like fourteen team leagues, or if you're just overly desperate add Colby Parkinson. Colby Parkinson is on an absolute heater right now since week ten, and for the record, Tyler Higby season ended in week eleven, but since week ten, Parkinson has averaged thirteen and a half PPR points per game during that same timeframe. That's more than brock Bauers. Really, Parkinson's just getting by on touchdowns. He's been mentioned a decent bit on The Sleeper Show this year, so podcast listeners you might already be aware of this, but Parkinson now has six touchdowns over his last six games, and then all the while, he hasn't hit a twenty percent target chair in any of those contests. But one reason to really lean into Parkinson this week, well, there are two reasons. First, DeVante Adams he heard his hamstring. He could be sidelined on Thursday night. That'll force more looks the other pass catchers in that offense. But second, for as good as Seattle's defense has been, they rank as the tenth best opponent for tight ends by justin points allowed. That's who LA gets this week and their twelfth and adjusted target chair allowed to the position. So really, Kolby Parkinson is not a bad streamer this week. And also don't sleep on Terrence Ferguson either. In Week fifteen, Ferguson saw season high seventy one percent rout chair. That was the first time he'd been over a fifty percent route chair. So with DeVonta Adams injured, there's a chance that we see the Rams feature Ferguson more too. Ad Tyler aljear So. Look, we've been handcuffing running backs for a while now, but even still, Tyler Algier is out there in over sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. Not only has he Bejon Robinson insurance, but there could be some usability for Algier here in Week sixteen. Atlanta gainst Arizona this week, and the Cardinals have not been good against running backs this year, especially of late. Arizona ranks is the sixth best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. They've given up four top twenty four running back performances over the last two weeks. This is pre Monday Night football. Woody Marx is technically right on the edge there, but yeah, you heard that correctly. They've given up four RB two or better performances over the last two games. Now, Algier did see a dip in running back rush here against Tampa Bay on Thursday night, but we could see a more ground heavy approach from the Falcons in Week sixteen. He's a potential flex play for needy teams, all while having that handcuff upside ad Bryce Young. The Buccaneers defense, which is who Carolina gets this week. They rank as a top five matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. They've been a actually friendly to quarterbacks of late, giving up eighteen or more standard fantasy points in each of their last six games. Now, there are some good passers that they face. They faced Drake May, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Jacobe Burssett, but they've also given up a twenty one and twenty seven point performance to Tyler Schuck and Kirk Cousins. That's over their last two. This week, it's Bryce Young and this NFC sal showdown. The game has a three point spread and a solid forty five and a half point total. I don't think Bryce Young is the worst streamer in the world. Add the New Orleans Saints defense, so fantasy managers, they've been hoarding defenses. So on the advice front, from a content perspective, it's a little bit tougher to find widely available defenses for you to stream, but I don't mind New Orleans. They get the Jets this week. They're in New Orleans, they're four and a half point favorites, and the game has a forty and a half point total. Process wise, they should be fine. And then if they do play well, they get Tennessee in Week seventeen, so you might be able to play them there too. Add the New York Giants defense, so as I just said, this time of year percent roster numbers, they're not as favorable for defenses, people are stashing them like crazy. I don't feel amazingly excited about using the Giants defense this week. They get the Vikings. They're probably gonna be like a middle of the road defense. What's more intriguing for me is their Week seventeen matchup against the Raiders. Vegas is the second best matchup for defenses by adjustin points allowed, and they've allowed a top ten defensive performance in fantasy across each of their last six games. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are musharding for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly Ten Trends episode.