Week 9 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we hate a late week injury status change.

00:00:08
Speaker 2: I'm Greg Rosenthal.

00:00:09
Speaker 1: I'm here in the Chris Westling podcast studio taping on a Thursday afternoon with Cynthia Freeland. And I like to put the time when we're taping, and now the show is just going straight out because every once in a while we'll pick a game and we think that Michael Pennox and Drake London are involved and we get we get in trouble. That's what happened to me last week when suddenly it was Kirk Cousins thrown to Darnell Mooney and I was losing that Falcons by a lot.

00:00:35
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, Lamar Jackson did a too, like we got a lot of like, we got it bamboozled.

00:00:41
Speaker 1: It's tough, but we're here, we're in the studio. If you're new to the show, we pick three games against the spread every week.

00:00:48
Speaker 2: Now it's a small sample.

00:00:49
Speaker 1: Size, so it's tricky, very tricky, and when you dig a hole, you need some hot weeks to get out of it. And that's what Cynthia Freeland is coming off three and zero last.

00:00:58
Speaker 2: Week and I'm still not to five good job.

00:01:00
Speaker 1: You took some heavy favorites and that was the way to go. So Cynthia went three and oh, I went two and one back. I went and checked the numbers. I've gone two and one four straight weeks after going one and two four straight weeks.

00:01:13
Speaker 2: So we're on a hot streak. So I'm back to five hundred.

00:01:16
Speaker 1: You're very close, and uh, you've been on fire, taking over first place on game debut as well. So I will let you start coming off a three and oh week where I believe you didn't even have to sweat out any of your games.

00:01:28
Speaker 2: It was pretty easy peasy.

00:01:30
Speaker 3: Well the other the one that I mean, I think we all kind of sweat out the Bengals and Jets, even though because nobody I don't think anyone giving if you picked the Jets.

00:01:37
Speaker 2: That's true.

00:01:38
Speaker 3: Three I mean yeah, yeah, for this show. No, we were right in good News. I you know what I'm gonna I don't like the Falcons and I'm mad at them for being oh wow, like tricky. So I'm going to go with New England to cover I know five and a half it's at home, but here's my here's what I'm telling you. I don't think Drake like, first of all, Drake May is the most honest kid ever. When he threw an interception against the Browns, like I didn't know, like I could jump, like he just was. I just like love him. And I don't think that this is where the Falcons come back and start to look like the good version of them which we saw against the Bills. Sure, I think it's I don't think they're the Dolphins or Panthers game, but I don't know who they are. I don't know if they know who they are. I don't know who's playing Michael Pennix junior. Maybe probably Okay, like it, I don't know. I think I'm going with Sorr. I'm yelling in your ear apparently, No, No, I'm turning it up. Actually want more Cynthia, more Cynthia. So but but I think I don't know. I'm mad at them. So dis appears Spike pick.

00:02:35
Speaker 2: Okay, that's interesting. They're not one of my picks.

00:02:40
Speaker 1: I've been nagging the Patriots too much this season, and I think that's my fan side coming out that I can't quite believe they were this good, because I truly don't think they are. I think they have issues. But I do believe Drake May is that this good. It is crazy if you think about it, because their past protection hasn't been great, Nope, their running game hasn't been great, Nope. They've really made it work with this group of receivers, which I do think is better than people think. Kesh On Boody to Mario Douglas, Stefan Diggs, Hunter Henry.

00:03:10
Speaker 2: But you can't say that, not like a top like whoa, that's scary.

00:03:13
Speaker 3: No. But but yet the man is just crushing his more. You know, the staff that we've been talking about all week long, more deep twenty plus air yard passing touchdowns than incompletions on such passes.

00:03:23
Speaker 2: That's insane. Five passing touchdowns that have for.

00:03:26
Speaker 3: More than twenty eight yards, only four incompletions on such passes. I mean, I just think he doesn't know what he doesn't know. He's like a puppy, you know, like like it's just gonna keep going.

00:03:35
Speaker 2: Like no, there's no like a likable puppy. And yet when he's like a puppy, yeah, when the puppies are inherently likable, he speaks.

00:03:43
Speaker 1: He just I just like, man, I'm old, because he just seems so young to be like in the NFL and a franchise quarterbook, and he's been great. And one thing he does have is is a really good offensive coordinator who I think is helping him along the way.

00:03:57
Speaker 2: And you mentioned the Falcons. Who are they? Who?

00:03:59
Speaker 1: They haven't been the last two weeks despite all those blitzes. Is a team that creates pressure, So I found that interest. I don't know if there's been something on tape, but the last two opponents, the Dolphins and the forty nine ers, have both gotten the ball out quickly and done a good job stopping those blitzer so the pass rush hasn't been there. I love that first pick because I hope it happens. All right, I'm going to start with my most confident pick of the week. It's going to be one of my most confident picks of the season. Who I've been on Seattle very consistently. They haven't all been right, because I remember I went against them for Tampa that was my pick of the year, unfortunately, but I've been right on them quite a bit. I just think top to bottom they might be the best team in the NFL. And I think this Washington Commander's team still has some juice in the numbers that is showing up, and it's why they're only three point underdogs at home to the Seahawks. And maybe your model goes on the other side, because I know they have some underlying numbers for the start of the season that makes them look better than they are. But man, they're a team, Cynthia that gives up a lot of big plays.

00:05:08
Speaker 2: And who gets a lot of big plays.

00:05:10
Speaker 1: Old slinging Sammy Darnold trying to win the ninth straight game on the road for the Mike McDonald Seahawks.

00:05:17
Speaker 2: That just seems random to me.

00:05:19
Speaker 1: But at some point I have to recognize that they are a good road team. And I just think they're another class than the Washington Commanders team, which has injury problems and especially problems on the defensive side of that.

00:05:31
Speaker 3: And no, Terry McLaurin, and I mean, we still't even know who they're gonna play.

00:05:34
Speaker 2: There were probably Jaden and Daniels, sure, but no, we don't know. I don't know.

00:05:39
Speaker 3: I just think all these people are liars, so I don't I don't do the liars though, other much, you know it, got I don't think they mean to be right.

00:05:46
Speaker 2: They're not doing it on purpose.

00:05:47
Speaker 1: They've lied about McLaurin before too, on the other side, where they thought he was gonna be okay and then he wasn't. He was finally back in last week and it really helped them, and then he goes out in the fourth quarter. He's definitely out. Laramie Tunzel is not healthy. That's a huge one.

00:06:00
Speaker 3: He was in and out of that game and it was like crazy different.

00:06:04
Speaker 1: So that again, we're taping this on Thursday. But to me, it makes no sense that the Seahawks would only be three point favorites in this game.

00:06:13
Speaker 2: The vibes in Washington also terrible.

00:06:16
Speaker 1: They have this thing where they have it's like PTSD and they think they're back in the Dan Snyder era and everyone's panicking. And I want to say, look, you still have Jayden Daniels. This is never gonna be a one year turnaround. It's an older roster. You're taking a step back to take a step forward. But man, I have some Commanders fans in my life and I'm seeing the reports and the media and stuff, and it's just like this is chaos. Since they lost that Bears game, it has just been all bad, and I think this's a horrible matchup for them. By the way, health wise, Devin Witherspoon is coming back for the Seahawks.

00:06:47
Speaker 2: That's a big deal.

00:06:48
Speaker 1: They're coming off of by so they are as healthy as they've been all year.

00:06:52
Speaker 2: No Julian love.

00:06:53
Speaker 1: But for the most part, that is a healthy looking Seahawks team and a great, great pass rush is gonna make it tough on Jaydan Dan.

00:07:00
Speaker 3: I have that one too, but I'm gonna not pick it just because we got to add.

00:07:03
Speaker 2: Yes O picks, all right, give me your second pick. But I like that.

00:07:06
Speaker 3: Okay, So I know ten's a lot, but I don't really care because I'm looking at this Chargers team and I'm looking at what's going on the Titans. I know that it's playing at home. I understand that's two scores. What are you seeing.

00:07:18
Speaker 2: I have good news for you. It is less than that. Let's go.

00:07:22
Speaker 1: I am looking on DraftKings. I'm trying to remember from where it was earlier. It was ten nine and a half, so just a little bit less.

00:07:29
Speaker 2: I don't care. Fine by me.

00:07:31
Speaker 1: We're going to give you every chance to get the wins. And it was eight and a half at one point this week, but it's nine and a half here, so you get it at nine and a half.

00:07:39
Speaker 2: That's what I can do for you. Okay, right now, let's talk. Thank you. You know, I appreciate that half a point that you just bought me. That was fanda. It's actually that's a big half a point. Absolutely yes.

00:07:48
Speaker 3: But I'm looking at this one and I'm thinking, Okay, Joe, all the difference with him playing versus not playing, we saw literally and figuratively massive, very different. You see huge results there four, and he's there one and two and he's not whatever like this whole thing when he's on the field versus off the field.

00:08:04
Speaker 2: But the other part that I like is this isn't Jeffrey.

00:08:08
Speaker 3: Simmons probably won't be playing, which that helps kind of a lot when you like to run the football. I understand this is a year where the Chargers are kind of throwing the ball more than running the ball. But I still think that even though, like, even if jeff Simmons were playing, it's okay, Jeffery Simmons is really really tough, but there's so many other places to target. They're just missing so many pieces on that defense, like Lagerius Snead. I just don't understand how you stop the Chargers at half capacity.

00:08:34
Speaker 1: I was watching a press conference on Twitter from Dinard Wilson, their defensive coordinator. I felt bad for this man. They asked them about the Roger McCreary trade. We shouldn't forget that one either, right, starting cornerback for their team, probably their best cornerback right now, because there's not a lot of good options. And he was like, yeah, you know, we started the season with Jarvis Brownlee and McCreary and Lagarious Snead and unfortunate we don't have any of them available anymore. It was almost a shot at the front office, like what are you doing. Here's who's not playing. On top of you know, the cornerback they traded away, Jeffrey Simmons is not practiced.

00:09:11
Speaker 2: He's not expected to play.

00:09:12
Speaker 1: Xavier Woods starting safety has not practiced. Calvin Ridley hamstring has not practiced. Chigo Konquo was a surprise DNP on Thursday. Now, he did practice a little on Wednesday, but that's not good. And then arden Key one of their starting pass rutchers. So this defense, which at least was competitive ish going up against this Chargers team, which I think is just as you mentioned a different team.

00:09:35
Speaker 2: So and Khalil Mack. By the way, hey, it's funny what happens when you bring back two.

00:09:39
Speaker 1: Of your best four players on the entire team.

00:09:42
Speaker 3: But I did I saw something that you and I do want to say, cam Moore did play well. You tweeted her, Yes, Guider, I don't remember where I saw it.

00:09:50
Speaker 2: It was Blue Sky.

00:09:50
Speaker 1: I just watched that tape and I was like, that was a good Camore game.

00:09:54
Speaker 2: That's right, and that can both things can be true. They lost by twenty four, still, it's like, that's right. But I do want to say, like, I like Kim Ward.

00:10:02
Speaker 3: I also think like he has like nerves of steel, Like he just doesn't look like he gets rattled, which is pretty cool.

00:10:07
Speaker 2: So I just want to give him a little bit of love.

00:10:08
Speaker 3: But I'm picking against him because the entire defense will be watching in the same they'll they'll all get the same stats as me.

00:10:14
Speaker 2: Right. My note was that, yeah, cam word played well.

00:10:17
Speaker 1: I think they found a good couple receivers in the graft, which is hard to find in the middle rounds. Those guys are players Io manor and DK like they will have NFL careers, which is not easy to find. The third fourth round one now and my guy Tyjas Spears looked awesome and yet they still lost by twenty four. Like that's the type of team that we're talking about. And yeah, but I believe you hit one of those wins last week against didn't you.

00:10:41
Speaker 2: I think you took the Colts. Yeah, I definitely as one of your picks. Absolutely. Okay my second pick.

00:10:47
Speaker 1: Really like this one too, despite any injury news that pops up Bears minus three. Okay, that's against the Bengals. Yep, coaching mismatch. This is one where I think Ben Johnson has raised the floor that when he goes up against a defense with this many problems And my god, the tape last year should be studied. I mean last week by the Bengals defense. This is the type of tape that you show to show what not to do team.

00:11:16
Speaker 2: Buildings and what are you I was like, where are you going?

00:11:20
Speaker 1: Like I can't believe more hasn't been made a bit about it. I guess it's because it was a Jets Bengals game. Wasn't in primetime, you know, it wasn't seen by a lot of people. It was a fiasco. It was a everyone here is in trouble of potentially losing their jobs.

00:11:34
Speaker 3: So you catch me at a feisty time a week. Yes, this is my feistiest moment of the week. I don't know why, but I got really annoyed at the end of that game when they were talking about because obviously Aaron Glenn went for two. They were down by fourteenth, so Glen in the first touchdown he went for two, and you would have thought by what I heard people commenting about. I don't even know who the commenters were, but they were like, you thought Aaron Glenn didn't.

00:11:58
Speaker 2: On account I actually do know of the comment Well, I'm not worried about it.

00:12:01
Speaker 3: I do too, but I'm not gonna say ah, but I was shouting and throwing things, not because I like love analytics and things, but he knows how to count.

00:12:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, what the heck?

00:12:14
Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned that, because they're infuriating decision to go for two in that spot one than in the game, and you know what everyone would have done if they didn't get the two and then they didn't get the tow the next thing, analytics saying yeah, they would have blamed it all on the analytics, but you know it wasn't mentioned even by me. I want to apologize to all the NFL Daily listeners, uh from that Sunday night game because that was awesome. Also the play that they hit on the two point conversion by Justin Field.

00:12:41
Speaker 2: They actually hit two in a row. That's right.

00:12:43
Speaker 1: The first one was like outrageous. It was one of those games. It was just touched by the gods.

00:12:48
Speaker 2: I was happy.

00:12:49
Speaker 3: But anyways, you're right about but part of the reason that was that clownery could work in general was because the defense was like the Bengals defense was, you'll you outline it.

00:12:58
Speaker 2: They're pulling these.

00:13:00
Speaker 1: Two rookies next to each other, Barrett Carter and now I'm blanking on the on the second one, I've said his name a million times.

00:13:09
Speaker 2: Demetrious Night I got oh yeah, yeah, yeah, Okay. They're just they're just lost.

00:13:13
Speaker 1: And when I watch the Bears every week, Ben Johnson creates mismatches, creates advantages. I just think I would love their team total too, Like I just think they're the team total over under is like thirty two for them, and they have their own problems on defense and Joe Flacco. His status is massive for this game. So we're talking on Thursday. Yeah, man, you might have get a chance to get the three points against Jake Browning, although I have a feeling Flacco will wind up playing in this game. So they've They're a good offense with Flacco, He's playing at a high level. But ultimately, I just think the Bears their floor is much higher.

00:13:46
Speaker 2: I think we get this win. Okay, all right, your last pick?

00:13:48
Speaker 3: All right, So my last pick, I'm gonna stick with my same theory of going with taking a big winner to win big huhuh.

00:13:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, But I'm not going to go with.

00:13:58
Speaker 3: The Rams because for points is kind of a lot, and I do like that, Like it's very tempting. I have them winning by more than fourteen points. But at home, the Packers twelve and a half. I like that one against the Carolina Panthers.

00:14:11
Speaker 2: Okay, book it, that's the one.

00:14:13
Speaker 3: I want Packers over twelve and a half by win by more than twelve and a half points.

00:14:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that one too.

00:14:19
Speaker 1: I've I've thought all along this Panthers team, it's like they're a four and four team that profiles more statistically as a two and sixteen, and I was really excited my Packers came through for me last week. I went big on them all all around, saying, yeah, I think they're gonna win. I think they're gonna win easy. Wasn't easy necessarily in the first half, second half, but in the end they won by two scores. Like they covered any alternate line you wanted to throw out there on them, And yeah, I just think they're rounding into form.

00:14:49
Speaker 2: They're a complete team.

00:14:50
Speaker 1: Like where's the weakness Maybe pass defense, but not really because they have such a good pass rush. And one thing I noticed about the Panthers last week is they could not protect for any They've had some injuries, and I know your model really accounts for all lines of line injuries quite a bit.

00:15:06
Speaker 3: O lines are so massive too, because you know, it sounds weird because especially coming off of last week, we had so many games like that weren't one possession furnishes. You kind of forget that any week any team could kind of stunt. Remember, I mean, the Browns beat the Packers for goodness sake. So when I'm looking at these things, you have to say, what is the most like steadying thing. It's like, oh, o, line o, line o line that's the thing on a game, you know, the biggest game of the week. I think I got to look to see because Trey Trey Smith like quietly didn't play last week and Josh Simmons quietly, so oh lines do matter?

00:15:40
Speaker 1: Yes, you're, of course referring to the Chiefs Bill's game, which, yep, just as a bonus. We're on other sides of I actually not gonna be one of ours. That's not my pick. No, it's not. But your model, No, no, it's not right. My my model's picking the Bills.

00:15:53
Speaker 2: Uh. I think it's drunk.

00:15:56
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Chiefs, but I don't feel amazing about it. That's why I would never put that game on this show and enjoy it. But I will be rooting for the Chiefs because I'm going to be rooting against you. I need to catch up on the Queen on our other show. Okay, last one, feel good about it. Arizona Cardinals yep, Monday Night Football plus two and a half. I was a little surprised about this line. I just I think they're a better team than the Cowboys overall. Now, the Cowboys have been particularly good at home and terrible on the road. I don't put much into that in general. I just remember it was like literally only a year or two ago that the opposite was true of the Cowboys. It doesn't matter. I'm going off eye test. Yeah, I think the Cardinals are a perfectly good team, and the last two games I watched.

00:16:43
Speaker 3: That's what I want to be perfectly good.

00:16:46
Speaker 1: I don't think the Cowboys are. They're worse than that. Last two games I watched closely. Cardinals take the Colts in Indianapolis to the whistle, to the final play, and it didn't look like they were to be there.

00:17:00
Speaker 2: And who else? Same thing with the Packers, Green Bay Packers yep.

00:17:04
Speaker 1: Now, as we're taping, a little mystery of over whether they could start Jacoby Brissett over a healthy Kyler Murray. I didn't think that was possible, But looking at the practice reports on Thursday, it's a Monday night game, when the media was there, Jacoby was throwing to the starters.

00:17:23
Speaker 2: Doesn't bother me at all.

00:17:24
Speaker 1: In fact, I might like it a little better because the offense performed a little better. But you know what, I'm fine because I feel like anyone can score on the Cowboys. Defense, Kyler or Jacoby Brissett, and it's more about the defense and just the total team that they've got a respectable defense, a good enough offense, and that's I trust, like a more complete team versus what the Cowboys have, which is the worst defense in the league or one of them.

00:17:49
Speaker 3: I think it's possible that Jonathan Gannon's like, let's throw out Jacoby Brissett in front of the media, but we're going with Kyler.

00:17:57
Speaker 2: Yes, I do too. I do too. I kind of like him.

00:18:00
Speaker 3: I think he was like, like, uh like very passionate, but I think he would do that.

00:18:04
Speaker 2: I think he I think he possible.

00:18:06
Speaker 1: That's one where I'm not going to make any excuses like I kind of did up top about my Falcons pick last week.

00:18:11
Speaker 2: I was mad about the injuries that popped up. I think that those injuries were crazy. They weren't.

00:18:16
Speaker 3: It did not feel like that was insane. When I read that, I was like, is this from this? You know, we get all these emails and it's like you get hundreds of emails every week, and is this from a few weeks ago?

00:18:26
Speaker 2: Is this current?

00:18:27
Speaker 1: Well, we lock them in here, we lock in our pick. I'm happy either way. They do have some good injury news by the way, too. Garrett Williams, who's a good young cornerback, could be coming off the temporary ir for this game. So that's one of their best cornerbacks and you need it. Ceede Lamb, who I do expect to play, was certainly not one hundred percent by the end of last week, Like he banged up his ankle.

00:18:51
Speaker 2: Was he a one hundred percent of the beginning of last week? Fair point?

00:18:54
Speaker 1: Like he looked good in that first game back, and then this was his second game back, and at some point in that game I don't know, or maybe it was even before the game, right, I don't know, he started limping around and when you watch the film, he didn't look quite as good. And then you mentioned Gannon. I think he is a good coach. They're coming off of bye week. They have another defensive player who could be coming back from their defensive line onto the field. Yeah, their first round pick, Walter Nolan might be making his NFL debut.

00:19:21
Speaker 2: So just a lot a long time coming. It really has been. I'm not going to hold my breath that one. I'm not is not a huge reason.

00:19:29
Speaker 3: But it just sounds like he's like one hundred and fifty years old too.

00:19:31
Speaker 2: I like to see Walter welcome to the field. This is your best bit is the Walter Nolan name. It just sounds like an old name. It's such an old name. It really does.

00:19:41
Speaker 1: Also that this team does not deserve to be two and six, which they would be with lost. They're better than that. I think they're going to get a win. On Monday Night football.

00:19:50
Speaker 2: What a treat. I hope you go three and oh again same. I hope you do too.

00:19:54
Speaker 1: I hope I do too. But if not, I hope at least I go two and one and keep it, keep every one on that side.

00:20:01
Speaker 2: Streak going.

00:20:02
Speaker 1: Okay, we got the Thursday night football recap, and then of course on Sunday we got the whole gang back together. Nick Shook, I'll be back with me for that, Jordan rodried Patrick.

00:20:12
Speaker 2: Clayboy, that sounds like a great crew. It's a full house.

00:20:15
Speaker 1: We'll be talking Bill's Chiefs, h and a really fun early slate, including that Colt Steelers game, which I'm really looking forward to.

00:20:22
Speaker 2: We will see you, Ben