Late-Round Perspectives: Thor Nystrom

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Thorne Eystrom is an NFL draft analyst at Fantasy Life who's previously worked for NBC Sports and Fantasy Pros.

00:00:06
Speaker 2: He's a Minnesotan, He's got an elite name, and he.

00:00:09
Speaker 1: Might have the deepest NFL Draft big board of any human on the planet. These are his late Round Perspectives. I realized, I think this is our first show together. I think so too, like it might it might be you were, so I have to ask you this too. A couple of years ago I talked about this with de Bro when he came on Perspectives. A couple of years ago, there was the the infamous uh uh Kia Tell You Ride, which is the car that I have UH where I packed a bunch of fantasy analysts in the in the UH in the suv to go to the bar. I was sober, other people were not. I believe you were one of the folks that were in the back of the car.

00:01:01
Speaker 3: Right. It's one of one of the greatest car rides that I've ever had in my life. And just to set it up for people, we were at the what is it the thing in cam what's it called? The Expo? The Fantasy Rebox BO and and it was like the day where it was the stadium party, but it was like raining, and so they have the it's like the Hall of Fame stadium where they have like the Hall of Fame game or whatever. So we were in the concourse because it couldn't go on fields it's pouring whatever, and they were selling drinks there. So it's like everyone, all the fantasy analysts that you all see on Twitter, they were, you know, they were all there or whatever. And then they people were getting kind of toasty, you know, after the end of the couple hours. Wait, we'd all been drinking in the hotel lobby like prior to going over there, but then we're stumbling out and we're like, oh yeah, we have to call it uber. And then JJ, as though as though descended from the heavens and light around him, was like, I can drive you guys. I'm sober and I have a minivan. And so it was like how many of us.

00:01:57
Speaker 2: JJ was like at least like ten or it was it was.

00:02:01
Speaker 3: A clown car. And and and JJ was like, no one throw up in here, and.

00:02:06
Speaker 2: That's all that's all I cared about.

00:02:07
Speaker 1: And then and then I had Dagel in the back, just constantly just destroying me in my and and my the fact that the car was messy.

00:02:15
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, my my family had driven.

00:02:17
Speaker 1: Up the Pittsburgh uh, you know, a couple days prior because we were going to be in Pittsburgh then for the week for my sister in law's wedding, and so I had two kids in the car, and of course it's going to be I had no intention of having ten smelly fantasy analysts, drunken, smelly fantasy analysts in my car.

00:02:36
Speaker 2: To drive them to the bar. I had no intention that was gonna happen.

00:02:39
Speaker 3: You know, there's a lot of podcast concepts that have been done, but if you had just had a camera in there, oh my gosh, the clicks for those twenty twenty five minutes we got to have. You know, it's not taxi cab confessionals, but we could have fantasy confessionals and yeah, you know, some concept like that. But it was. It was an incredible time, and it's good to be with your brother.

00:02:57
Speaker 2: Yeah man, yeah you too.

00:02:59
Speaker 1: I again, like I can't believe this is I think our first show that we've done together. So I'm really really excited to sort of dig into your process and dig into how you look at this stuff because you've been around these prospecting streets for a while now, you know, we've randomly like come across each other on Twitter and stuff like that, and you know, have.

00:03:15
Speaker 2: DM and whatnot.

00:03:16
Speaker 1: But I really want to dig into this class because I think it's an interesting one.

00:03:20
Speaker 2: So my first question I ask everyone that comes on the show.

00:03:23
Speaker 1: I haven't had any repeat perspectives guests either, so I probably wouldn't ask this again to you if you were to come on again, but just let everyone know sort of how you got into the space in the first place, and sort of how you found this calling of prospecting and doing this evaluation.

00:03:39
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, I've been obsessed with the NFL Draft since I was a kid, and like when the internet came out and then you could like print stuff off the internet. The thing I would do at the very end of every NFL draft was I would print out the seven rounds. I don't think I had a concept that they were like stored on, you know, on the internet, the results of the draft. So it's so in my childhood closet, I had this stack of just literally that the printed off results and and then I you know, you get the draft magazines. You know, it's like spring break was when I would always in my head because then you be down at the Minneapolis airport and they go in the what's it called the bookstores that only Hudson. Oh yeah, you never see a Hudson outside of an airport.

00:04:17
Speaker 2: I don't do they do they exist outside of an airport.

00:04:19
Speaker 3: I want to own the first Hudson outside of an airport. And just how you know there's that one Blockbuster and Ben Oregon and it's like the last Blockbuster on Earth. I want to be the first Hudson outside of an airport. I feel like people would go there, but anyway like that, you know, that's where we go on vacation for spring break, and I'd be like, my thing that I look forward to is being at the airport because then they'd have the NFL draft magazines. I wanted the big, the long, big board at the end as long as I could get it, so I could cross off names like as it went, you know, you'd have to scroll at the bottom with best available. But it never went fast enough for me. They'd be doing other nonsense. I'd be like, put the best available back on, so you know, like, that's that's what I always and then I wanted to do that. Of course, the second I realized you're not going to be playing in the NFL, it's like, well, let's just cover the NFL draft and so that's you know, like and I actually quit football going into my senior year of high school because I got an opportunity to work at the local newspaper after school, and I was editor of the school newspaper as well. I want to go to a big school, so you know, people would read my stories outside of campus. That's why I went to University of Kansas for undergrad and I got into a graduate writing school after that because the journalism industry was tanking. But fortunately I got a part time job at NBC at the same time writing about baseball, which wasn't you know, my first love. But that's that's okay, And I did that through grad school. I did it for a year when I was teaching in China after graduate school. I could do it remotely, writing up the West Coast baseball games the shift nobody else wanted because the clock was flipped, so like you know, midnight Central was noon in chum Chin, China, where I was. And then when I got back into town, I told my boss at the time, like, I need more hours or I'm gonna have to look somewhere else because I I'm out of college now I got to pay rent and whatnot. And he said, he said, would you be interested in NFL Draft college football? We're trying to build up our section there. And it was like, that's That's what I've always wanted to do. And so then after that that was the thing where it never felt like work. So I yeah, I just kind of went ham on it. And a couple of years later I was this, you know what you know at the top of the section or whatever, and we've been doing it ever since and I love doing it.

00:06:23
Speaker 1: What was the time frame when when you came back from China and you were kind of looking at to do more.

00:06:28
Speaker 3: That would have been at this point, Man, I'm dating myself eleven years ago.

00:06:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean I same.

00:06:35
Speaker 1: I really feel old whenever I had like some of the guests that i'll have on there, like in their early twenties, and I'm like, man, I I it definitely ages me.

00:06:44
Speaker 2: Makes me feel really old for sure.

00:06:45
Speaker 3: Yeah. And now we get the players where we get the sons of players, you know, the juniors that Yeah, it's like, man, I'm getting real old pretty soon. I'm gonna be you know in mel Kiper when when he's talking to someone and then he's like I evaluated your father, and uh, you know, and like it's like, yeah, I used to laugh at that, and it's like, oh no, that's gonna be me in a couple of years. Yeah.

00:07:06
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:07:06
Speaker 1: The weird thing is I remember in Madden when when Madden, because I like almost everyone listening to this probably played like Franchise Mode and Madden you would just kind of manage your team and you'd simulate games, do all that kind of stuff.

00:07:18
Speaker 2: But I remember in Madden when they came.

00:07:19
Speaker 1: Out with the idea that you can hire coaches who are former players that had retired, right, so like you know, if they retired in like this is probably like two thousand and five ish around that time frame. I remember like like getting older players, watching them retire, and then a couple of years later I would hire them on to be my head coach because it was just really fun to do that, right, and it's literally happening in real life, Like this is that is what And you don't really realize it growing up watching football and stuff. You're like, oh, this coach in the nineties actually played football in the seventies or whatever whenever it was. You know, like I grew up a Steelers fan, and like Bill Kauer was a football player. It wasn't just like, oh he came from it. He's just a no, but like, like we are seeing that happening, and like, I think the big one for me was probably like Demiko Ryans, where I'm like, this guy is like like I remember like him coming up, and like it was this is not just a you know, like random dude who you know, Like like I didn't, I didn't see his career trajectory like we saw it all. And then now he's a head coach and he's a young looking head coach, and uh, it's just it's just wild.

00:08:22
Speaker 3: Man for sure. Yeah. Kevin O'Connell the coach.

00:08:25
Speaker 2: Kevin O'Connell's a great example a.

00:08:27
Speaker 3: Mile away from me. I remember watching him when he was at San Diego State. I remember, you know, him in the draft. That was a little bit before my time, so I didn't have like, you know, crazy ardent opinions about him, but like and then you remember his career, you know, and yeah, it's it's it's just kind of wild where I guess we're at the age now where we see the full life span of people's football life.

00:08:46
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, yeah, I'm just I'm just prepared for someone from the Zat model to be a to be a head coach.

00:08:52
Speaker 2: It's going to be very very strange.

00:08:53
Speaker 3: For sure.

00:08:54
Speaker 1: So speaking of evaluation process, so obviously I bring up the Zat model. I like to look at a lot of this stuff analytically. But as I say on this show and on every show, I'm still watching these guys is very very important to do so and for me to not sound like a moron whenever I'm talking about these players, I think it'd be disingenuous to only speak on what their spreadsheet.

00:09:13
Speaker 2: Numbers are saying. But I'm curious, like what's your evaluation process?

00:09:17
Speaker 3: Like?

00:09:18
Speaker 1: And you know I ask this not because you know there's a right or wrong answer. I'm just curious, you know, how much weight do you put analytics into that process and into your evaluation? Like does it matter to you or are you more so just like I got film grades, I'm just I'm watching these guys.

00:09:34
Speaker 2: That's all I care about.

00:09:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, No, definitely analytics too, for sure. You know. I mine's probably it's like a table with legs. You know, it's like the first leg of a I would consider context, which is, you know, I cover college football in the falls, so like all these guys, you know, I don't do as much with recruiting, but like when they get onto campus, you know, and then their careers, so I have the context of in the moment and sort of their progression through there and things that they're working on in their games and big spots and all these different things. And then they so that's that's the first one, and then they get into the process. At that point their college career is over, so you get that's when you get access to their full at least statistical analytical profile, and then you get their their athletic UH profile as well during the pre draft process and their exact measurements as you know, the schools can do some exaggeration with those, you get you get accuracy on that. So yeah, all that information and what the analytics say about that. And then the other thing in the spring is going through the cutups, right, you know, you watch the guys live, but you know, especially things like trenches, defenses, the ability to get the All twenty two with the quarterbacks. Obviously, the broadcasting view, you can't tell what they are seeing when they make their decisions. So you know, I like doing that or seeing the receivers routes, which you don't get to do on the on the broadcast either. So it's it's just sort of adding all of that context in and once you feel like you have a full picture, then you start comparing them apples tapples with other people. And then you know, as in the springs as well, you're picking up information from other folks, you know, whether it's a deceni bowl, whether it's at the combine talking to people getting more information to me, it's just it's just an information game, right, And the more complete picture, you know, it's like a polaroid or something, and you got to keep shaking in it gets, you know, clearer and clearer, and the clearer your picture is, that's the more accurate your rankings are going to be. So that's why I don't understand when you know, either it's a film guy that's like, Nope, that's what I saw on film, and I don't care what the analytics or the stats are or whatever or the opposite you know of just oh, the numbers are what they are, and I don't really care to in my opinion, like for the most accurate, you have to consider all of it and take in as much information as you can.

00:11:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this isn't something I threw on our show sheet. But I am curious. And you know, again, I don't think that there's like a right or wrong answer. I'm just extremely curious about how you approach us. But you know, from me, I care a lot less about how I view a player concretely before the draft, and you know, and I'm not sitting here trying to project the draft, right, Like I'm not trying. I don't know, Like I know, I generally have an idea of like where ash and Gent might get drafted, right Like I generally know where you know, I know where team needs are and stuff because I know the game of football. But like that's not the thing that I'm working on the most, and that's not the thing that I'm focused on the most, is like projecting the draft, doing mock drafts and stuff like that. You know, from your perspective, do you care just as deeply about sort of your evaluation pre draft and your landing spot predictions pre draft as you would post draft, or do you still care more about just the post draft because like, for me, I only care about the post drafts, or I don't only but I mostly care about the post draft stuff because that's the thing that we're acting on from a fantasy perspective, right, Like, that's that's the thing that that matters there. But you're, you know, your job, in your you know, approach to this is probably a little bit different.

00:13:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like in terms of that, it's it's just like sort of the bedrock foundation that you come into the process with, and you probably see it as a band outcomes, right that the baby's wider at the beginning and then and then you know, you you know, start to shrink down as we go throughout the process. But yeah, I mean, like it's that's all it is. It's just my foundation coming in. But yeah, like based on new things I learned, based on watching the cutoffs, based on what I see with the analytics, and what the oceanic data suggested about certain metrics over the past twenty five thirty years, between all that different stuff. Yeah, it's it's gonna move on guys a little bit. But that that that sort of bedrock foundation that I come in with it. It's sort of like the rope that keeps me tethered to earth, Like you're not you're not gonna get me. Like one dude runs like a you know, a four to two, and all of a sudden, it's like, Okay, everything I knew about that players thrown out and you know what I mean. Like, so that's what I use it more for. And then like the post drafts, like that's that's important with the you know, as far as the projecting that the initial success and of course for fantasy players as well, that we can we can have a you know, more or less accurate picture of a player, but if he gets into a bad situation, or he gets into a situation where there isn't an opportunity things you know, you you, football it's not like baseball, where baseball it's a it's an individual sport masquerading as a team sport, and in football you need the other factors and everything is sort of spooled together. So yeah, that the landing spot becomes very important for their especially initial success in the NFL.

00:14:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think it's fine to like, like there's some people who are like, oh, I don't care about landing spot as the player is the player, and we know that talent, you know, will generally lead to more volume and all that kind of stuff.

00:14:43
Speaker 2: That's just a general trend and idea.

00:14:45
Speaker 1: But like I always think back to like aman Ross Saint Brown, right, Saint Brown obviously a good player, obviously one of the one of the better wide receivers in the league. But I think that it's like we should be questioning, like how long it would have taken him to do what he did if he did land on a depth chart that was completely open for him to do what he does, you know. And it's not to say that he would never emerge. It's just to say that, like the process in which this happened might have gone slower than it actually did. Maybe that second half of his rookie season wouldn't have happened, Which is what I think you're kind of speaking to, is just this.

00:15:17
Speaker 2: Idea that you know these guys and where they land, and you know.

00:15:21
Speaker 1: The draft capital aspect of it too, you know, and teams and the sun cast, the cost and then turns into a potential sun cost that they'd be taking on that obviously can lead to volume opportunities as well.

00:15:33
Speaker 3: That's it. Yeah, and the system that you're in and all that different stuff. Yeah, it can can make you look a little bit better, it can, or it can you know, lead to no opportunities. So yeah, I mean, like, and that's something that we can't predict in advance, you know, Like with with my job. You know, I'm talking about adding context far as individual evaluation, but there's also context that makes it, you know, a job like mine a little bit more problematic. For instance, I do a five hundred player big board every spring with five hundred player comps. Well, if you're an NFL general manager who is laying out a big board, you have an offense and the defense, you have coaches, and then you have holes. Right, like the free agency has already happened. You have schemes that they run. So they're bringing you like, hey, I need a I need I need a slot receiver for the future, right or I need immediate help at interior defensive line, or we're gonna get ripped up all season on the ground, or they're giving them specifics and specifics within you know, this paradigm of these holes that they're trying to fill to put together a roster, whereas we're we're doing these rankings in a vacuum, right, and so like you have to sort of, you know, cross that bridge on your own. Yeah, you know, as far as that goes. And and then yeah, after the thing's done, those got they go into situations, some find their destiny as far as the scheme and the opportunity. Some dudes never do right, and so that's that's just another part of it. But at that point, it's out of your hands. I mean, you just had to you just had to hit the ball where you know, you submit your fine board and then just see where it lies after the fact.

00:17:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:17:04
Speaker 1: You kind of brought up the NFL combine a little bit with your your you know, pre draft process and evaluation stuff.

00:17:10
Speaker 2: How much do you care about the combine?

00:17:13
Speaker 3: I care about it, you know, ins like it's not certainly be all end all, but like you know, the testing metrics I appreciate, especially because they populate all my sheets and then give me all my you know, my equations and all this different stuff. So I definitely appreciate that that the accurate measurements for the guys we haven't got to yet. It seemed like we had some accurate uh some measurement things this process which I don't really understand, but anyway, like getting that objective data I appreciate. And then I also appreciate that there's so many, so much of the NFL there, and there's opportunities to learn stuff. I love the podium sessions too, you know, I mean, like just learning stuff about the kids, getting getting a feel for them. We we don't have an opportunity in the media, like to to get them in one on one, you know, for like you know, you know, twenty thirty minutes like the NFL teams do. But you can get a little sense of them listening to their their podium session. So it's just sort of the adding of the information, you know. And what I'm doing is cross checking that. You know. Again, I come in with the be the foundation on these players, and it's like basically cross checking their results against essentially what my expectation was, you know, that initial sort of where I viewed them, and then that's where you know, you can have some some changes. But yeah, that's how I see it not be all and all, but there's importance to it. Yeah.

00:18:27
Speaker 1: Look, and I always tell people like I don't put much from like like you know, cause I'm prospecting running back, wide receiver, and tight end mostly and I'm not putting that much stock in the the actual metrics I get at wide receiver. Let's say that doesn't get an input into my model, but I would assume, and I know I shouldn't say, I would assume. I know that a lot of that ends up getting captured in draft capital, which is an input in the model, right. But I will also say that if I were not using draft capital, and I were doing more of the job that you were doing, I would be looking at the combine completely differently because I think that the athleticism stuff, even at like a position like wide receiver, if that's going to project draft capital to some degree, then and I would be hypothetically trying to project draft capital on my own, then I would then be using that athletic testing for wide receivers and all these other positions a little bit more than I currently do. So it's good to get that perspective from someone who you know is doing more of the pre draft stuff, you know than the post draft or versus you know, like weighing the two for sure.

00:19:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, go ahead, yeah, no, for sure. And then the other thing is like we know that there's you know, like overall, I think that the idea of threshold it's it's a little bit silly, like the threat like uh, you know, the bulky guy Trent Balk from the Jaguars, Like he took trevaon Walker over in Hutchinson because he had a couple more inches on his arms. You know, stuff like that I think is a little bit silly. But there there are athletic thresholds and some size measurement thresholds where it becomes nullifying if you are but them like we know, so you're able to sort of cross off some of those guys that just don't have the jews for the NFL, and then yeah, you know it helps to just clear your you know zone in a little bit more on what is that guy actually.

00:20:15
Speaker 1: So, while you're about I know that you're evaluating every position, but when it comes to the positions in fantasy football, right quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, how would you kind of rank them in terms of easiest, hardest, in just in terms of how hard they are to evaluate.

00:20:32
Speaker 3: I think running running back I would put on the easier on on on those. Quarterback is tricky. It's always the one where you feel the most conviction and then you're either the most right or the most wrong. So it's yeah, like you know, and and you were mentioning you don't have the QBS and the Zap model, Dwayne doesn't have them in his supermodel like because with quarterbacks to it the data, it's really hard to get at what actually is pointing you at stuff. You really cannot unspoil them from the teammates they had in the system that they were playing under in college. Receivers, I feel I probably put them on the I probably put running back in receiver, as you know, if I had to put too at the top for that, I've easiest, I guess, like, yeah, yeah, easier than the other one. Yeah, and then tight end quarterback would be the bottom one. Tight End I probably put actually tight end on my put fourth Like there's condis, there's a lot of factors with it, but yeah, that's probably how I do it.

00:21:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, tight end is difficult, you know, I have a tight end model. I don't feel as confident in it then as I do the running back and wide receiver one.

00:21:43
Speaker 1: And part of that is at least with like running back and wide receiver. Again, if draft capital is a major input, which I'm just trying to win fantasy football, so of course I'm want to use draft capital as an input, but uh, draft capital being an input at tight end, it's just different because tight ends are offensive line extensions and so you don't like from from a team perspective, projecting the use and usage of a tight end is a lot more difficult, in my opinion than doing so with wide receivers where or of course running backs too, but wide receivers is like, okay, you know what they're trying to accomplish right now, that might be lined up in different areas, and there are different wide receivers if you will, you know, there's there's smaller slot guys, there's there's big x's. Whereas when you're looking at tight end, they could be drafting some beast athletic, beastly athletic tight end who's got a great catch radius and has really good yards per out run numbers, but then all of a sudden they just want to use them in line as an additional blocker all the time, right, So it's that that's one of the harder things that I've found, at least with the position.

00:22:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's why it's a you know, one of the known as one of the more slowly developing positions because you come in you're obviously you're not as physically matures as you will ultimately become. And yet you're you're you know, you you exist in this area between the offensive line and the skills, right, and you have to do stuff on both ends of that polarity. So now you're beginning he's war daddy, you know, twenty seven year olds that have you know, you know, it's like I need you know, feed my family, you know, and stuff like this, and they're coming out and then you know, you have that stuff. You have the shifting you you know, some teams pull their their tight ends. You second level on these concepts. You're chipping on this route, this route, You're not like all this different stuff like that that you have to learn as well. So between those two things and then becoming ingratiated in the system where your other teammates trust you, it takes a little bit longer than with some other positions.

00:23:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:23:35
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into some players because I know that that folks want it.

00:23:38
Speaker 2: I want it too.

00:23:39
Speaker 1: I want to hear where you're at with some of these guys. Let's let's start with Ashton Genty RB one for most folks, I think he's your RB one as well. But my question to you is, is there anyone that is close to gent And then sort of taking a step back, do you agree that this running back class and totality it looks to be special to.

00:23:59
Speaker 3: The second one for sure, and to this the first one, nobody close to Genty? Yeah, nobody's nobody's close to genty I it's yeah, he is a different thing, and he's in his own league, not just with his class. You go back up, bet, I am my opinion. He is the best running back prospect enter the NFL since Saquon. You know, I know other people might say Bijeon. I think Gents is a little bit better than Bijeon, but yeah, that's YEAHMP. You know guys like Hampton, the Ohio State kids, Caleb Johnes, I like those guys, but yeah, we got we got a golf. Uh. Genty is a different thing.

00:24:36
Speaker 2: Have you had a hard time finding comps for him?

00:24:39
Speaker 3: Well, I I kind of like mine.

00:24:42
Speaker 2: I Well, let's hear it.

00:24:43
Speaker 3: Let's hear Danian Tomlinson.

00:24:45
Speaker 2: Okay, Oh, that's it. That is fun. That's a fun one. Yeah.

00:24:47
Speaker 1: The hard part for me is that I'm doing it all statistically and I'm and my model goes back to twenty eleven and there hasn't been again you're talking about lt is a great exit because other people will bring up like Maurice Jones Drew right, that's another often from a size perspective and like an impact perspective. But to me, it's like, like the fact that you have to go that far back to find a reasonable comp for for Gent speaks volumes to the kind of prospect that he is now for sure.

00:25:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a guy who has someone like in terms of contact bounce at the end of his career. I'll be interested if people are making the art like and we'll see. But he has the best contact bounce I've ever seen in college. It's impossible to tackle that guy with one person. He ain't going down right, like, he's staying on his feet. It's you know, I my comp for him is the spinning top at the end of inception. Can't can't knock it down. It's gonna keep going, keep going, keep going. So yeah, yeah, I mean you have that you, I mean the strength that he runs with once he gets going, the vision, the toggling of the temple's like a different stuff. But then he also and for people that are like new to him or you know, on Twitter, we get a lot of true box score scouts where they're just literally looking at the they'll probably think, oh, he in a good receive because last year his receiving stats were down. He's a freaking tremendous receiver. The year before twenty twenty three is up there, you know, in past decade in terms of receiving seasons we've had from a running back, and it was over ten percent of the stabs that year that he took either in the slaughter the boundary and his you know, for people out there that might think that that was a fluke, and the numbers that he put up his PFF grade that year receiving was over ninety And in addition to that, I don't know, you know, if people realize this as a junior in high schools, this is in Frisco, Texas. Ashon Genty took over for Marvin Mims junior as that team slot receiver after Mims junior had signed with Oklahoma and because also that Frisco high school a team they're starting running back the next season or in that offseason after his senior year he signed with Oklahoma State, so they had a D one running back, so Genty he was the starter at slot receiver. That team was awesome. They were in Texas's high school, the highest level of it, and he was all straight or all all you know, whatever that that high level was or whatever. He got all the accommodations. The senior year he shifts back to running back and goes absolutely ballistic. But between that and then between the fact that he was in Genty was living in Italy up until his freshman year of high school. That's on a naval base. That's why recruiters were late on him. Right. Uh, Boise State was obviously they got in early. And Boise State also had developed the previous stud running back did it come out of Frisco, Texas, Mister Jay and Jaii. So that's that's why when you know Genty starts going ballistic, his senior season. Now the power of five at the time of power four school will start to go in on him. Genty's like, yeah, no, I'm good, We're we're going to Bois. They believed in me first and they developed Jay and and that sort of stuff. But yeah, I mean he fabulous receiver in high school, fabulous receiver when used it that including out in the slot. He even put in the boundary a little bit. When we see that at Boise State this past season the numbers were down, they funneled all of his usage into running because they wanted him to make a run at Barry Sanders' all time FBS record, and he came very close. But that was a part of the pitch for Boise State to retain Action Genty for his true junior season, which we're never going to see again. We will never see a singular offensive, superstar skill player at the G five level that remains there his entire career. And SEC schools, Big ten schools, they tried really hard to make sure that wouldn't be the case with Genty, but Boise State they were able to figure out get close enough with the NI Also, it certainly was not the top they were taught by a lot of different people, but one of the things was we're going to make a run at that heids, and we're going to make a run at Barry Sanders. Yeah.

00:28:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean look, not only that, but like you noted in twenty twenty three, his his receiving numbers were great.

00:28:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, like like he had like a twenty three.

00:28:48
Speaker 1: Percent reception share in that offense that year, which is like a top ten number, not top maybe top five within the database.

00:28:55
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:28:55
Speaker 1: I mean I don't see a problem at all with the receiving profile, you know. So the the only thing I do want to ask is do you worry at all? And the answer is gonna be no, I don't worry. But I'm just curious about, like your general evaluation here about strength of schedule, strength of opponent, the fact that he played at Boise State. Does that concern you at all? Not just for Gent but just any other player, you know, Like, for instance, you know, we have a we have Marcus Yarns. Let's say, right, so he he goes out he plays at Delaware, who I thought was Marcus Yams when I was first evaluating, because because the R in the end looked like an m you know, on on a computer. But like like a guy like Yarns, right, like might look the part at Delaware, let's say. But obviously a player who is NFL caliber, a running back who's NFL caliber, playing at a place like Delaware is gonna have an easier time breaking tackles and doing cool things on a football field. No, obviously Boise stayed bigger than a place like Delaware. But how do you sort of use how do you sort of like evaluate those players within that context.

00:29:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, with its certainly you have to consider it, right and and and when you're watching the film, the cutups of those guys. That's why I'm always I want to watch the games where they're against legitimate competition. I don't I don't care about your game against the FCS team in the in the week one, right, like if you're you know, playing out a P four school whatever. With Gens, he shredded every opponent that he played, including being the marked man against some some nasty defenses. So that's where it jives it for me. A couple of just from this past season. September seventh, they played in Eugene, Oregon against the Ducks. That the only team last year to finish the regular season undefeated in the Power for Boise State came as close to giving them that loss as anybody did. It was just because of gen d twenty five carries on hundred ninety two yards, three touchdowns. He had two catches as well for eight yards of two hundred all purpose yards for him in that game. And again he was a marked man. That was the mandate of the Oregons. Do not let that kid beat us, and he almost did anyway. And then the last game in the playoff against Penn State, that Penn State team nasty defense. No, I mean abduall We talked about Abdua Carter a lot, but they have dudes everywhere and it was all loaded up. We don't get beat by Asher and genty today. And it was admirable. I mean the thirty carries, he got three more catches, one hundred and four yards rushing. I think he was the only guy to get above one hundred against Penn State last year. I don't have that in front of me, so don't hold me to that. Yeah, but Penn State has just a nasty front seven, nasty run defense. There was the one play and you know you think, you know, someone out there might be like, oh, thirty cares for one hundred four yards, that's not that much. But every single time right loaded boxes with NFL defenders.

00:31:43
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, and he's playing with an offensive line that's not this like SEC offensive line too that people have to have to give come correct.

00:31:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, So it was it was you know, that was a John Wick scenario where it's like Ash and Genty against the world. Right, it's like at the end when they put the alarm on and then everyone has a contract on John Way is coming at That was Ashen Genty in a couple of those games against those awesome defense. There was the one run against Penn State where he broke either six or seven tackle attempts on one run and he got like eight yards on it, like because he just kind of throw people off of like this different stuff and like that's that's what it was in that game. But yeah, no, I'm not not concerned about him. That The Yarns one is interesting and and and you know situations like that Yarns super duper undersized running back and he's just a bullet. It's it's just speed speed speed. He's a he's a straight line dude too, So his evaluation you think about against the FCS the contact matters, of course, and then you have to project it going forward. Can a guy that small he's a running back, uh, I know, the fabulous receiver right, like his the fun stuff about his table and they shift him out to the boundary and or the slot. Marcus Yarns and he he looks like a widers he right. What he looks like is to touat well when he on there, right, But he runs really good routes. And then contextually that's when I want to see that kid at the Senior Bowl. That's why I love that Yarns was there this year because I had watched his tapment. I was like, this is this is interesting? And I wrote in my Senior Bowl preview that you get I believe that you were going to get two developmental bullets with Marcus Yarns because if he fails as the runner the between the tackle stuff and the meat and potato stuff, that's he's got to make it on outside, you know concepts, right, But more to the point, receiving. This is essentially a pure receiving guy, but but great at it. And and my thing was if he fails as your receiving packer. You for whatever reason, you don't like that that I thought you you potentially have another developmental bullet of trying to turn him into two two out. Well, it's a it's a very similar build. I think he's just as skilled as a receiver there. And tou tou. I remember that kid at Louisville. He ran two routes. One of them was the quarterback immediately turned to the left when the dude is play playing off them and just chuck them the ball real quick and then it's like two two you're fast run. The other one was straight go roup. Yeah.

00:34:06
Speaker 2: Sure it's the.

00:34:08
Speaker 3: Occasionally did a slat, but that's you know, I mean, okay, we'll say three. But yeah, like with Yarns, you you could get used to like that because the speed plays all day. But yeah, the competition you have to consider. It's another data point you have to consider it.

00:34:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.

00:34:23
Speaker 1: So, speaking of receiving work at the running back position, a question that's popped up recently for me is about quin Shawn Judkins. Because my ZAP model or the ZAP model, I only I don't want to say my ZAP model.

00:34:34
Speaker 2: That sounds sounds potential.

00:34:35
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say model you know it, the ZAP model.

00:34:41
Speaker 1: No longer uses rushing metrics in the running back model, which sounds wild, sounds stupid, and sounds crazy. But a lot of that is just because it's captured in some of the other things that uh, you know, it goes into the model, whether it's running back size, right. So obviously bigger running backs are probably gonna see more of that uh workload. Draft capital a big one, and honestly, I think it just comes down to the fact that receiving work is not captured enough by NFL teams, as we care about it more in fantasy football than NFL teams do, because it matters that much. Not that NFL teams don't care about it, but it just matters that that much. From like a PPR standpoint in fantasy football. So people have asked me then about Quinnchawn Judkins, because Judkins obviously splits a backfield with Trayvon Henderson.

00:35:25
Speaker 2: He split backfields to a degree.

00:35:26
Speaker 1: I mean, he had other competition, I should say, at Ole miss And so my question to you is do you see him being.

00:35:34
Speaker 2: A three down back in the NFL?

00:35:36
Speaker 1: My standpoint, like what the model is saying, and sort of what I've seen and what I've looked at is that I think from like a workload standpoint in terms of like what he might be able to handle, would look more like a Jonathan Jonathan Taylor as opposed to a B. Jon Robinson, Right, is that sort of what you're seeing as well, just not not stylistically, but from like a WORKLOADECTI.

00:35:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't want him out there on the passing downs and I don't like, why do you have to the the thing that Ohi State did last year? That's how I want him used in the NFL. He's gonna be my my bell cout in terms of the offense that you're going to in terms of the carries, he gonna suck up all of them, right, Like I mean, Judkins, he played hurry up offense, you know, especially at ole Miss prior to when he went to Ohio State. But Chip Kelly hadn't running quite as fast as he used to in terms of the temple. But like we've seen that ole Miss offense that he was in the first two years, it'd be like handed off to Quinchawn six yeard game, they'd sprint back to line, handed off to quinschn five yeard game, moved the sticks, sprint back to the line hand It was like that sort of thing, and then like on the the uh you know, passing downs, they would bring someone else in, Judg. I love the way Juggins runs. He's he's very very natural with it. He proved the athleticism right like, and the thing that he's the best at athletically it's the acceleration. But he has tremendous vision. You talk to any of the coaches who have ever coached him, they will fawn over his vision. You know, vision feel right like that that stuff is just really really good with him. Love him as the peer runner. But yeah, to your point, Jonathan Taylor at Wisconsin during his draft class, he would get nitpicked about the receiving thing, but there wasn't a ton of contacts added in that. Those Wisconsin teams Taylor right from the start. First down, the play was always hand the ball to Jonathan Taylor. Second down, the play was always handed the ball to Jonathan Taylor. If it was a first down again, you revert to the hand it off to Jonathan Taylor. When you got into the third downs. The obvious passing, he had to come off the field. You're not giving him the ball every single friggin time, especially when it's like third and eight, third and nine. And that's okay. He also wasn't the best probably receiving back on that team, right, like, and you just don't develop certain things. But yeah, Judkins far as a pass blocker, Trayveon's way better pass blocker than he has and Jenkins as a receiver, it's just kind of man, But that's okay. The guy's an awesome runner and on his under you know, when you're can considering drafting him, you just know, we just have to have a solid receiving downpack. But that's it. Once we do, we we got, you know, our transformer of a you know, of a of a of a backfield committee and it's going to be really really good.

00:38:12
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, Do you think that this is an improper way of viewing pass catching at running back because this is how I generally view it. I think there's almost like and this is kind of dumbed down, but I'm dumbing it down because I think that it almost can be. It's almost like there's three tiers or categories to pass catchers, and they're either elite and like really good and obviously good. And what I mean by that is we saw them move around the line in college. We saw them be able to play out of the slot, et cetera, et cetera, and run wide receiver routes and be you know, Christian McCaffrey's of the world, like, you know he was going to be a high volume receiver at the NFL level. That wasn't necessarily the biggest question mark. More, the bigger question mark was just size and how much of a workloud he'd be able to see whatever. And then there's a bottom group. The bottom category are grouping are the players who are just horrific at doing that thing, Like there is a very clear red flag that this guy is not going to be much of a pass catcher the next level. Maybe it's simply due to what the analytics are saying that he had like a three percent reception chair in his best season, and it's very obvious that that's just not going to translate, or you just see something on film where he wasn't seeing that much complexity to how he was running his routes. But then there's this middle tier where the majority of running backs kind of landed where like, for instance, Kenneth Walker coming out right, he had analytically had some marks where we were like, Okay, how much of a high volume receiver is he going to be at the NFL level? And we haven't really seen him be a high volume receiver at the NFL level. But it doesn't mean that he cannot be a decent receiver, right. I kind of feel that way about Quinn Shawn Judkins, and it's being misconstrued a little bit as Judkins being a bad receiver. I just don't think he's part of that elite group, and I think that the majority of running backs that we see come out are not part of that elite group. Is that too simple of a way to look at it, or do you think it's fair when you're trying to project how these guys are gonna be used at the NFL level?

00:40:03
Speaker 3: No, I like I, I you know the way that I would praise, but the way I see it is similar. But the way I think about it is like that the top tier, it's the guys who can create without the ball and after and with the ball. Right, So so those are for instance, in this class per Shard Smith or Murcus Yarns we were just talking about. It's the to your point, they can run the routes like a receiver. They can be deployed as a receiver or out of the backfield. You get legitimate downfield routes out of them where you can trust them to create their own opportunity without the ball. That's that's your top tier. And then your middle tier is the guys who can only create with the ball, right, so you need to manufacture their their touching. But then they can be a problem with the ball in their hands. They ain't gonna do anything creative for you. They're very but you know on the route back, they're very rarely going to be sent out on a route that is beyond the line of scrimmage. But they can do damage with the ball in their hands. And that group in this it would be like o'mariy and Hampton, it would be Caleb Johnson. Those guys they don't run. They don't run routes down field. They'm making anyone miss out, you know, like in the open field, and that's you know whatever, it's you get the uh swings, screens, dumpuffs right that the dumbot that's just circumstantia. But the other two the idea, get them the ball with some some space around them and an envoy in front of them, right that they're gonna be a problem, right, I mean, it's more or less, and you're moving the line of scrimmage somewhere else, and you're you're thinning out the bodies that are in it. I mean, it's essentially just a modified running concept. But like that, that's the middle tier. And then there's the guys that just do not have feel for it. But like that middle tier, to your point, I think there's more people in it than you know is commonly believed. You brought up blocker. That's a good example one that I always point to with Leonard Fournette, who didn't literally did zero as a receiver at LSU, but it was, you know, similar to the Jonathan Taylor the right every year that I'm sorry, Leonard Fournette played in the NFL where it was either fourteen or fifteen plus games. I think he had three or four of those seasons. Every single one of them he had some over sixty catches, right like, and again it's not because he's out there, you know, like Christian McCaffey and yeah, sure, Yeah, it's just you do the swing thing, the screen thing and the dumpoff thing, and you know they he'll do some stuff after the catch.

00:42:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent. Talk to me about Bashall Tutan. So he he looked.

00:42:28
Speaker 1: Good in my mono pre combine, and then the combine happens, and obviously you know he's been shooting up draft boards.

00:42:34
Speaker 2: Right whenever I.

00:42:35
Speaker 1: Published the the pre draft version of the Prospect Guide, he was around one hundred projected draft capitals. So like a fringe day two guy, what do you see in him? And do you do you think it's possible that he that he does go day two in this class?

00:42:50
Speaker 3: For sure? Yeah, I mean he's he's in play for round three and if he if you don't go in around three, Kadie, ain't gonna have to wait around long to hear your name called Saturday. I mean, it's it's it's gonna be one of those situations. But obviously you have the the incredible athleticism with him, and that you know has been a parent since he was at the FCS level, and we've seen that it played on the field in the power forward at Virginia Tech, that. He's very fun to watch because he has this breakneck style or sometimes he gets the ball and it's like, what can happen next? It's one of those hold your breath kind of a guy's and he can hit a dinger at any moment, but it's it's sort of you get the peaks and valleys with him, right like the and and the valleys. Unfortunately he has ball security issues and then sometimes you can quibble a bit with the running pass he takes or the vision thing, like sometimes it you know, it's it's you don't. You want him to work on refining that. So some of the decisions, you know, it's a little bit better. But he's a wild man out there right like, and you get that sort of kinetic energy right like where he gets the ball in the stadium, everyone is holding their breath. I stole my from him because I see one from land zero line and I was like, that's it. I was I couldn't find it on my own, but it was right in front of my face. He is Isiah Pacheco.

00:44:09
Speaker 1: Oh nice, nice, Yeah, I can definitely see that. I uh, the one that spit out in the model. Actually, I'm curious to hear your response to this, because I was. I was kind of surprised by it. But I can see it if if draft capital is favorable for him right at the end of the day, if he has a Day two guy. But it was Kenneth Walker bringing up Walker again, Uh, that was the one who Matt. I think Walker was a more obviously a more prolific runner and has a little bit more more on that better better vision than Touton does, but size wise, speed wise, that home run hitting ability, that sort of like I mean, if we're being honest, you know, Walker's had some of that inconsistency even in the NFL, where he's been sort of a lower success rate guy, but high EPA guy because he can break those big plays. So that that to me was like the Pine of Sky type comp for him. But that was the one that that spin out for.

00:45:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wouldn't I wouldn't have thought about that one before, But there are things about it that do make some sense there. You know that the struggles with or are not being deployed as much as a receiver in college. You know, however, you want to look at that and then the the frame with the athletic profile Kenneth Walker tested better than I thought he was, so so then you you know, you sort of get that the only thing the running style, that running styles are a bit different. Now, that's right. You mentioned the the vision in the field that Walker has, and he was so good with the cuts and creating the space and setting up second level defenders and and these sorts of things, whereas uh with uh Twotin, it's you pull the trigger on a gun. It's I mean that thing is flying out there, and then which.

00:45:47
Speaker 2: Is which is Pacheco? Which is exactly what we get from Paget.

00:45:51
Speaker 3: That's exactly right. So yeah, I mean that that's but yeah, there there are similarities there, you know, in terms of the profiles, Yeah.

00:45:56
Speaker 2: For sure.

00:45:57
Speaker 1: So okay, if if you're looking at the consensus right now and look at how they're talking about this class, look at running backs, which running back maybe to whoever however many want to talk about, do you see as being immensely undervalued right now?

00:46:10
Speaker 3: I would say amongst the top guys, the top grouping, I would say Caleb Johnson. The middle grouping, I would say, actually I got a lot of them because because I'm higher, I think on Devin Neil than most folks. I think I'm higher on DJ Giddens. I know that I'm higher on R. J. Harvey, and I also think I'm higher on Damian Martinez, So I guess that would be there. And then in the in the you know, sort of the day three flyer zone, I already talked about Marcus Yearns. I would put in there Marcus yarn gonna hang around. Yeah, yeah, I mean the the receiving skill with that speed, it's gonna play, you know, it's it's it's gonna be as a complimentary guy, but but it's gonna play. Another one in that grouping that I like is and and this is you know these some of these other guys, it's flash. This guy doesn't have any flash at all, and I think that's why he doesn't get discussed as much. I think he's going to provide a value for a team during the draft. Is TODs Brooks from Texas Tech. All Time bowling Ball, All time ball, Like I just love the bowling ball guys, and he's got the all time for five to nine. He cut to two fourteen for the combine for his testing, which are better than we thought it would be. But that's a kid that plays closer to twenty five. So it's it's just like a trash compactor, you know. And and he has the agility with the power. That's that's his game. Between the tackles, he's real good breaks the tackles. He's gonna get at least what's blocked for him and a bit more. Doesn't have the high end speed. But I think the people the thing that people sleep on with with TODs Brooks, he's really good in the past game. It's a guy who's very reliable. Then you know as far as catching, he has really good hands. And then this is something that you know for fantasy players don't consider it as much. The NFL loves it. He is awesome in pass pro. He's awesome, awesome, awesome in pass Pro. He's one of the top three backs or so in this class in pass pro. So that's the thing that's gonna keep in mind the field on these passing downs. He also gives you the value as the receiver, Like I said, hard to tackle that guy in space, and then the meat and potato stuff. So I think he gonna be a sleeper for fantasy folks as well, because hes probably gonna go in the fourth round. But it's for a team where it's going to be like, this is our short yardage dude, and this is going to be our passing down guy as well. For the reasons that I just stay to what if he's getting if he's siphoning touchdowns while putting up the receptions because they can't take him off the field because he can block too. That's a guy who even though maybe he's never the at the top of a committee, that especially in deeper leagues, that he can begin to accrue value for you.

00:48:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, one of the comps for the prospect. I mean the three comps are Traveon Williams, Ray Davis, Jeremy McNichols. We're the three for Todge Brooks. But what you're describing, what you're describing sounds like a Ray Davis type role and what we saw with Davis last year.

00:48:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, Mine, he reminds me so much of Zach Moss coming out of you.

00:48:57
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, there we go.

00:48:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the same thing where it's like the break in the tackles, you like defeat that you got the power element, but it's like, man, I wish he was fast, but he's not right, Like so it's I mean, it's the one thing. But then Zach Moss also could help you in the past game as well. But yeah, they're Bray Davis when I think that's that's a good one too.

00:49:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's move on to wide receiver. Is Tech McMillan. I mean, we've had a lot of Tech McMillan discussion this week with him having his pro day and slowly having his his forty time go from one of the fastest we've ever seen to one of the slowest we've ever seen.

00:49:30
Speaker 2: That's just I tweeted about this earlier this week.

00:49:32
Speaker 1: But it's like a dude runs a forty at his pro day and as the day goes on, because I guess, like, you know, maybe maybe his like agent is like the one that puts it out there that it was fast or something. And then as the day goes on, everyone's like, oh, no, scouts actually had it at here. Oh no, this scout had it, And it just gets slower and slower as the day goes on. But no one expected Tech McMillan to run fast. But is is McMillan your wide receiver one, and is anyone close to tet at that spot?

00:49:59
Speaker 3: Yeah? Well, first thought to especially the PRODA times there it gets wonky because I don't I don't know if people realize this, but every team they time it individually, right and so, and then typically it's the team where it's like the closest to the pro day is supposed to be like sort of in charge of what becomes the official time. And it gets like I said, it gets really wonky because that scout will compare his times with other scouts, and then at the end of it, like the thing that officially gets reported, you're trying to sort of ball park it, but they have the discretion. It gets really weird. Just laser time the friggin things. Okay, we have the we have the technolog Yeah, just literally take a video of it and then have you know, disseminate it and have the the But anyway, I digress. Put chips in the balls to NFL, like come on, yeah, but yeah, like I mean, regardless, he was all he had to do was hit it down the fairway tests. He's not like you know, uh, you know, an all time He's not Dante Thornton from this class. You know, he's not like a sprinter, but like his his speed is adequate, and all you had to show was that his speed was addequates. I don't really care about that, you know. I like, I think Ted, if he can get his destiny, I think he would be an incredible wide receiver. Two and a really good offense is like the T Higgins role, right like. But yeah, like you know, between Tea, between Drake London, I think those are the guys that he has some similarities to and and yeah, like you know, somewhere between the eighth pick and you know, fourteen fifteen sixteen, somewhere in there is where I expect him to go.

00:51:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, T was was his top com for me. I also had Courtland Sutton as well as Oh for sure he wasn't he was he to me? Like, because I know that people were like, he's either Tea or he's Drake London. And I kind of see it as like in the like, I don't think he's as good of a prospect as Drake London was, at least like what I see analytically too, London had just an unbelievable like age adjusted profile at the end of the day. And also you know there's some competition things that the one in his favor but yeah, I mean, like I think, you know, McMillan, I'll just move on to this next guy too, and then the next couple, because I think that seeing him within the context of the other guys, to me, he has fewer at least analytical red flags. But I know there are some red flags about separation, et cetera. And you know his use of of you know, how his contested catch stuff is going to translate.

00:52:18
Speaker 2: We hear about this a lot, and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it does.

00:52:21
Speaker 1: It did obviously for guy like Drake London. But is he is he currently your wide receiver?

00:52:26
Speaker 3: One?

00:52:26
Speaker 2: Ted?

00:52:27
Speaker 3: For sure? With the boy? Yeah he belled a bell for sure. Yeah.

00:52:30
Speaker 2: Okay, so then let's talk about Matthew Golden.

00:52:32
Speaker 1: So, Matthew Golden, I'm really really interested in your perspective here, because you're someone who's watching college ball, who sees the journey of all of these guys, Whereas I'm coming into January and being like, Okay, people were hyping up Matthew Golden a little bit. Oh he runs a fast forty. Now they're hyping him up even more. You know, I'm casually a college football watcher, so I know what happened you know, with with him at Texas and stuff. But it seems like he wasn't on the radar to this degree at all, maybe mid season at least from one looking at and like mock drafts and stuff. I think just a few months ago he was like a fifth rounder in some mock drafts, like he was Like, it just seems like his his his rise has come from nowhere. And so I want to ask you is that the case? Like am I am I completely wrong and seeing that? But also is it warranted? Like like does this happen sometimes and sometimes we're just right and he should be a first round.

00:53:23
Speaker 3: Yeah to the first one from the tree tops, yes, you know that, you know, in terms of the rise, And then the second one, is it warranted depending on the degree it goes to. I think it is if he you know, uh, wide receiver one is too far for me, but it is a down wide receiver class and and the profile that we have with that kid, the evaluation. You know, in my opinion, he has to be in the discussion with Burden and Agbuca and if if people have you know, Harris or he has to be in that sort of second tier discussion. And if I'm not gonna argue against anyone that puts him at the top of it. In fact, I'm considering it myself the the You know, this is an interesting discussion, you know, as far as it being through the analytics paradigm. You see in both the film Watchers as well that the Nippicky gets more from the film Watchers stuff like that. It is like the lack of size and strength on the boundary, but for me, that was mitigated by the fact that the kid can win downfield on the boundary. It's the same reason that when people were during the process members a Flowers when during the process people just wanted to make them a slot receiver, and I'm like, hello, watch his freaking snaps at Boston College. He was beating people downfield on the boundary NFL, NFL corners. Just you know, he can win downfield and you can play on the boundary. We've seen it with Golden That's it's the same thing where he can win on the boundary, and he can win all three levels of the field on the in the slot too, but you know, on on the boundary in particular, I don't care as much about that. Obviously, he has a Jewice to get downtown. But what I'm saying is he has the ball scales, he has the adjustments to the ball down there too many plays down the field, and then the analytic nippick that he gets against him. It's the the idea of I was talking about this with Dwayne, you know Dwayne and I sound Dwayne mcfireland, my my my colleague. Uh. We will sometimes have you know, like on the the what is it called, we have a thing with worker you and talk with your coworkers. So sometimes I'll just pop into his virtual office. We'll just you know, talk about some of these profiles for a little bit because I'm curious, right, like you know. And the thing with the on the analytics side, it's the idea that a guy with that career target rate as low as it is and then two thirds of it being generated in the G five, that that you look over the last ten twenty years from an analytic perspective, it's like that's some of that stuff is not indicative of a first round pick, right, and and so all that stuff I can see and then you know, you think about the late rise and stuff like that, and I I can see why some people there might be a pushback and be like, this is fool's goal. But let me give you the context of that target share, because I think it's super important. This a kid who was only in college for three years, two of those were in the G five, so that aspect of it is true. But he chose to stay home and go to Houston. He didn't have to the school he was originally committed to his TCU, and there was plenty of other Power five suitors that were interested. He was a four star recruit coming out of Houston, but he decides to stay home and play at Houston his true freshman season, which actually ended up being more than one third of his profile because of the injury rapid shop more year that I'll get to in a second, but the first year, he was a starter right away, along with another true freshman receiver in this class, Sam Brown. But that so those two guys were starters. The other starter on that team was a guy like to call Tank Dell and it was his last season in college. And you know what Houston did every play tank tank Tank Tank Tank Tank Tank had like one hundred and seventy targets that year or something, right like So's it's like, but you're acruing all these snaps as Matthew Golden as a complimentary guy to a guy who you're gonna build a frigging statue to in front of your football st I mean, Tank Della Houston Football. It's you know whatever. So you can't quibble with that. And that had nothing to do with Matthew Golden. He was a solid complimentary receiver for the true refreshman that he was in that scenario. The next year, Tank Dell's gone, So now it's Golden and Sam Brown, but also gone where the quarterback Clayton Tune who got drafted as well as the offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, was the architect of the turnaround of Miami's offense. Had the pyrotechnic show they were doing with cam orton all those guys last year. He was out to Miami the year before. So now those two guys are gone and it's you and Sam Brown as the receivers they picked. Drawing a quarterback they started this Donovan Smith and East thinks it's not a good thrower. I'm sorry Donovan Smith if you're watching this right now, but you had that going on, and then the other thing was Golden suffered an injury middle of the season, gets knocked out for that game, missed a couple of games. He come back, you not one hundred percent, basically ruined the second half of his season, which is why Sam Brown, you could he was gonna be healthy the whole. So he established himself as the wide receiver one on that team. But so that was the sophomore season, well then the junior season, and you're coming off that injury ravage thing. It's why he wasn't as targeted as some of these other dudes in the poort. It look a tremendous amount of interest, but it wasn't like, for instance, the dude that Texas their biggest target in the transfer portal for the wide receiver position, kidd in this class, Isaiah Bond. They go after Ijia Bond because it's it's you are xavier worthy. That's what Sarkisian thought. You we ain't gonna have any drop off at all. We're putting this cana. He's gonna be xavior worthy. It turned out he wasn't xavery worthy, but like it took a little while for Texas to get around to that. There's also some limitations with the quarterback there. I'm sorry if any Longhorn fans are listening. We got a lot of Queen you Weers truthers amongst the Longhorns faithful. I don't know about that. He's not great throwing down the field. And what we saw the last season was Quinn youwers. I was almost gonna swear sorry. The a crap ton of targets went to the tight end Gunnerhelm led the team, and then a bunch to the running backs as well, because it was all short and intermediate stuff. So you had and then Bond was supposed to be the downfield guy earlier in the season. That's why it took a little bit for Golden. He again, you're still starting right, but the ideology of that offense, Golden proved it though, right, and so down the stretch and this is this is to the point the rise for Golden. You don't see rise of in the moment during the season because you know, we need more data because small samples, you know, size whatever. But down the stretch, boy did he come on. Texas realized the number one, the wide receiver one Alpha that we signed. The transfer portal just wasn't the one. We thought it wasn't ij Ah Bond, it was Matthew Golden. So as they're playing that they played in the SEC title game, and then of course they go into the college football player. Now Golden is the wide receiver one, and he was eaten. He destroyed Georgia in the SC title game. He destroyed Arizona State. Unfortunately, we got a sliding door thing in the next game. Because people remember the tray Von Henderson seventy five yard catch him run to delayed screen right before halftime they put gave the momentum back to Ohio State, and that that is viewed in hindsight as the thing that flipped that game. But what people forget is right before that, mister Matthew Golden suffered an injury, so he gets knocked out of that game against Ohio State. This was in the second quarter, so you had that on that end. Ohio State gets the ball back, we think they're going to run the clock out and name and Henderson rips that thing off, does it all by himself. In the second half, Texas just they didn't have Golden, and you know, you had that sort of deflate thing and they just didn't have enough you know, high statey pull away in the second half. But yeah, Golden can play. The things I like about him, you have the versatility for slat and boundary. One of the better ones in this class. He interchangeable. He'll do either. He talked about that at his podium session and I was like, I was doing the ah man. You know, like, because we've seen that at Houston, We've seen that at Texas. You can't call him a pere boundary, can't call him a pure slot. He does both, and he'll do both for you in the game. So like a creative play caller want you want to take advantage of some mismatches. This is a dude who can play all over. So you have that I mentioned before. He can. He has proven that he can win at all three sectors. This is not a manufacturer touch dude. It's it's a guy who can create his own opportunities. Intermediate can also can also do it downfield. Do I think he's going to be a superstar in the NFL. Absolutely not. Do I think he's gonna be an awesome wide receiver? Two? Yeah, I do. Yeah.

01:01:20
Speaker 2: Do you have a comp for him?

01:01:21
Speaker 3: My Golden comp was let me, let me look it up.

01:01:24
Speaker 1: I'm curious because my again I didn't. It's it's tough to find a really good comp for him because of his size and his ability, like you said, to play inside out, you don't always get that combination and the speed. Obviously, the top one actually that got spit out, I don't think it's necessarily like this is the role he would play. But the top one actually that got spit out was lad Butconkey in the in the in the it's so so, which was interesting to me, but it was it.

01:01:53
Speaker 3: Uh.

01:01:54
Speaker 2: But but the thing that that that is uh that I would say is that at least McConkie, you know, had that that per route run stuff analytically because Georgia just didn't use them the way that most wide receivers are using just in terms of volume.

01:02:08
Speaker 3: Right.

01:02:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, but his his per route run numbers were incredible, But the model doesn't look at the per route run stuff. It's looking at other metrics. And that's why that was his closest match. But I'll be honest, like, there weren't that many close matches with him, So I'm curious as to who your comp is.

01:02:23
Speaker 3: That's a good one because I also like the aspect of that where McConkie interchangeable between boundary and slot. Yeah, right, so you get that with him, and you see the benefits of that. You know, you change between twelve personnel and three wide receivers and you can move them all over the place as matchups dictate. So that's I don't have to think about that one a little bit more. That's that's pretty good.

01:02:44
Speaker 2: And mccauki was also faster than we expected at the commenty for.

01:02:46
Speaker 3: Sure, Yeah, I mean in terms of the yeah, in terms of the athletic profile, and yeah, it's closer. Yeah, Golden hasn't done some of the other ones and the four two nine there's you know, it's funny how much discussion we've had about that, you know, with U you know, people are ruder filming it. But like either way, like maybe it was just right on mconky's time, right, like if it was just a little bit accelerate as far as the Crystal Lave one, I like with him because of the route running chops and and that ability to go interchangeable between slot and boundary. That but yeah, maybe I'll end up stealing yours with maconky.

01:03:20
Speaker 2: Honestly, there we go there we go. I like it. I have to talk to you about Luther Burden.

01:03:24
Speaker 1: I know that we're over an hour right now, but I need to speak to you about Luther Burden because analytically, the model like loves him. I even said in the at the top of the of his profile that if the ZAP model had a baby, it might name it luthorcau.

01:03:37
Speaker 2: It just he it just it likes what Luthor Burton did his sophomore year.

01:03:40
Speaker 1: That's what it comes down to, right, Like, like the the obvious contextual red flags are you know, the the a lot of line of scrimmage usage, you know, not like a very robust alignment usage for him, you know, a lot of slot work, a lot of like like close to the line or down the field where it wasn't that much intermediate stuff with Burden. You know, there's just a lot of these like question marks that aren't necessarily gonna be captured in a age adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt breakout score. Right But you know, at the same time, uh, there is some stuff to like, I mean, like he was still good against zone, good against man yards prout run he does comp relatively well to like a guy like DJ Moore, and he's in that archetype of what's been working kind of well in today's game, which is uh, sort of bulkier guys who can create a lot of yak.

01:04:33
Speaker 2: You know, in that I'm not saying that this is the comp but.

01:04:36
Speaker 1: In that same like Molik neighbor Z type discussion of like build and what they could bring in the impact they can bring to an NFL team. I understand all the red flags, and I'm just curious where you're at with Burden, if that sort of vibe vibes with you, and where you see like the ceiling and the floor with him.

01:04:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got to I got to see a lot of Luther Burd in the last three years. You know, it was a five star recruit. I went out East Saint Louis, which, by the way, folks, actually is not in Missouri. It's it's in Illinois. You know that the more you know at NBC. But but you know, consider part of Missouri. He went to Missouri, stayed home, I guess, I guess in terms of him, but he was starting right away for Missouri and then the second season is when he detonated people. There's some nip picking about his first and his third year, keep in mind, contextually, Missouri their offense was not good the first and third year. In fact, both of those years they threw for less than three thousand total yards. You know, as a team. That the sophomore year was when their offense was good and that's when they made the New Year six ball and they beat Ohio State that season. Whatever, you know. And recently I got to I went back and I watched Burden snaps again that it's it's it's an interesting thing that the lengths that Missouri went to get him the ball, the manufacturer touching, but this was like on on sort of hilt. But it very very creative that the different things that they wou do with him. Yeah, yeah, certainly the regular manufacturer touch of when when the defense did a drop zone essentially automatic that he was gonna park four or five yards upfield, turnaround. I mean, that's that was the play they do, the drop zone, Luther in four yards upfield, turnaround, and then it's running. You know, after that thing, they shifted him around all the time. They love shifting around Luther because the defense is always you know, you start to you know, confuse and scare them and then they're gonna tip off things. You know, are we in man? Are we in zone? When he would do the downfield stuff, it was almost always in scenarios where either it was if it was only one dude on his side, you know, if if it was Luther in the slot and then your boundary receiver traditional sort of three wide receiver set, the only scenario is they throw to him downfield. It was when you had the single high safety and the concept to be the boundary receiver on that side. You're going across and you have to yank the the safety to your left, basically trying to get Luther on on literally one side of the field with his dude, and that's when you can you can toss it up to Luther Burden down the field like the downfield boscos he's he's he. I think it gets a little overblown, but like my take on it is that the ball tracking thing with him, it came and went. There were signs he did it really really good, and and I like the body adjustments he makes went when that tracking is true, like he will make contortions and all of a sudden he opens up spacing and he's got good hands beneath the five percent drop right his entire career, and he can make plays down the field if if, but he needs that opportunity right like, So it's not a predominant downfield guy intermediate creating space on his own. He doesn't really do it right like. Again, it's these these different imaginations the team has gone to to get him the ball. One of the other concepts they love to do, uh, they do the diamond right, So it's the three receivers out there and he in the back, and then they would spray out and sometimes three and they'd spray everyone else out to clear out. You know, it's clear out routes, the dummy clearout roads and then you every everything they did with Luther Burden, it was designed to get Luther Burden on one side of the field against one dude or into a situation where you break one tackle. We got an explosive play up. But another fun formation they love to do is four wide receiver set with Luther as the running backs, so you have five running backs. But anyway, all these different things just get him the ball. What I didn't see much of him was beat. I just talked about the thing with the running backs and the running backs that can do it before and after the thing. Luther, he doesn't create a ton by himself before the ball has been there, and I wouldn't expect him to in the NFL. That's the bad news. The good news is he wanted the better people with that ball. Yeah, And so basically the argument I'm trying to make is he ain't gonna be a wide receiver one for you, because then it's going to be like the Missouri thing and he ganged up on and he can't create on his own, but he still could do a ton of damage in the NFL. JJ. We talked earlier about the context of the guys after the draft. Where did they land? This is a landing spot specific, dude. You get him onto a team that needs a slot receiver that has fabulous boundary receivers that can win downfield. You force the defense to go double high safety the entire time, naturally creating that spacing in the intermediate that's where he's gonna eat. You can manufacture him the touches in that scenario a perfect example of this team. They're not going to take him anymore. I don't think after they yesterday, I believe signed Ronde Moore because it's it would be superflust skill sets. If they hadn't done that, Rondale Moore would have been perfect for the Vikings because Jeffer, you play next to Jefferson, you don't get more spacing in the NFL than playing next to Justin Jefferson. Of course Addison on the other side you have to pay attention to. Then Hawkinson can win downfield too, and then the running game is legitimate as well. So he's always going to be in scenarios where there is open space around him and you're you're going up against a non elite cover guy most of the time, right, So that's where you can leverage his ability. But with the ball in his hands, Luther Burden looks like a star running back. He has that Noss button that you know, shoots whatever very very sudden, and then he can It's one of those speed to power conversion things. He ain't strong in terms of like you know, like you know, if we're at the gym lifted, you know, not in terms of that, but that speed to power thing. He runs fearless and he generates that power. So all of a sudden he's got contact bounces, gonna ricochet off the defensive backs coming at him from off angles, He'll keep chugging, so that's how he ends up breaking his tackles. You know, I'm staying in Minneapolis for this one. But my player comp for him who he reminds me so much of Percy Harvin back in the day. That's what it is. He he yes, you know again you can nippick him because it's like all the routes and yes, I agree with you, but he is near the top of the line of continuum of that guy, right, and that's right around where Percy Harvin is. That that's how I see him.

01:10:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, I think that Harvin, you know, migraines and headaches aside. I think Harvin in today's game could dominate, Like it could be a really, really, really impactful player.

01:10:54
Speaker 2: So like, I don't you.

01:10:55
Speaker 1: Know, if anyone hearing that, maybe they weren't even watching football then or what have you. But like that's that's not a bad comp that's not a bad player to be compared to at all. All right, I'll just give you one more question before we go. We've been talking about the higher end wide receivers, but is there any any Day two wide out in this class or maybe even Day three who can make a serious impact of Fantasy football. I've I've sort of, you know, as I was doing all of the combine write ups of the guys who went to the Combine, I wasn't super thrilled about the potential Day three wide receivers in terms of like them making massive, massive impacts. So I'm definitely curious if you have any there, but you know, Day two players, because there are some that I really, you know, think could could be interesting. Like I like Jalen Nole a lot, Like I you know, he's a really really intriguing guy. But I just want to hear what your thoughts are in the class, you know, beyond the this this first and into second round.

01:11:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I I love Nolan as well. That's a guy you're gonna start for a decad. You're gonna start right away and then a decade was in the slot. But since you mentioned Nemo, how about I defer to his teammate for my Day two guy. I love Higgins, Jayden Higgins, and he gets slept on I think because he came up from the FCS, and I think it's a little bit unfair. He tested as an elite athlete at six foot four, two hundred and fourteen pounds. He had that nine point nine two ras and ninety nine percent of outside of justin Now, he hadn't done the agility stuff yet, I I don't really care about that. He's got the speed he has, he has the explosion, the verticals, thirty nine inches, very very long arms as well. It's a broad shoulder kid with a huge wingspan for a wide receiver. And he was tremendous in college. Right like the past couple years at Iowa State, they didn't have the greatest quarterback play in the world. Last year Higgins only fifty one point two percent of the targets thrown to him were chartered as catchable. And yet JJ euromath guy one hundred and thirty targets eighty seven receptions. This guy, he digs stuff out that is not considered catchable. He catches it outside of his frame. He can win at all three levels of the field, and he has the athletic profile of an alpha wide receiver one in the NFL. Now do I think he can be unknown? But he's you know, Michael Wilson was a guy we saw down there a couple of years ago, and there are some similarities there. It's just that Higgins is a way better athlete, right, So like I think he gets slept on and I think he's gonna be a really, really good player for a long time. That's that's probably who I would toss out day two. As far as like Day three sleepers, well, he's not gonna have any This is more for like the NFL. But I suppose, like, but Dante Thornton is because all that guy does is is he just he's in the back of the batter's box and every single time he swings for defenses, right and in certain offenses, you know, like who's the guy for the dfs people hate or love gave Davis remember when it was just like it's yeah, like it's it's like that sort of thing where he's gonna kidd it, you know that, But it's gonna be dependent on the dingers. But that's that's what he does. Dante Thornton almost six foot five, two hundred five pounds and he has the four to three flat speed, So he's gonna go on day three and then make someone happy. But how about we go deep, deep, deep, sleep for one of them that I like, Isaac Tesla.

01:14:03
Speaker 1: From ARC Yeah, I love that. Yeah, you know Hillsdale College represent man.

01:14:09
Speaker 3: That's right. I've been thinking about it for a while and I'm going electric JJ with with with Tesla. But uh yeah, a kid who came up late and then he found himself in this weird and packed Arkansas Wide receiver room last year where they had four or five guys that are going to get long looks from the NFL and we're playing in the NFL, and so it was they had this weird rotation and then their quarterback is his physical freak got Taylon Green. He's like six six and he has like four four speed. Not a great thrower, and so they that was, yeah, this sort of rotation and then when you get in is not a great thrower, but Tesla can win down the field. And he's he's almost six foot four, two hundred fourteen pounds. Uh nine to nine to two ras on him for for for Tesla and four four to three speed. The agility was there with him too. He did all the test four or five shuttle six eight five three conose are both really good. Thirty nine and a half vertical so, I mean, he's a tremendous athlete, and I like his game down the field. He can go up there and get it. He knows how to use his body. I comp him to Alec Peerce, where it's the downfield utility I think is what you're gonna get in the NFL. And again, just because of the context of his situation and coming up, he told me that when I talked to him at the Senior ball and you know, he he said that, you know, I was the last invite here, Like, I mean, he's he's a he's got a chip on his shoulder, and he was like, yeah, you know, because the usage at Arkansas, I mean, he knew what the deal was is you're flying a little bit under the radar. But he looked good at the senior ball, those catches downfield and those one on ones. And then you go to the combine and he tests the athlete you did. He's going to get drafted, and I think, like I said, it's gonna be an Alec Peerce type role for him once he sees the field of uh, you're a field stretcher.

01:15:53
Speaker 2: Yeah he uh.

01:15:54
Speaker 1: Again, he started because he started at Hillsdale College, right, I had not had Hillsdale College in my day base until Isaac Tesla came around. And I look at receiving yards per team pass attempt, anything over like three is generally good. And obviously if a player, you know, like we had Jalen Coker coming from holy Cross last year, of course his number, his numbers are gonna be better because he's playing at holy Cross. But Isaac Tesla at Hillsdale had a best season receiving yards per team pass attempt of five point two two. Let's flying because he's flying against you know, just like lower tiered players. And then you know, you mentioned uh Dante Thwarton one of his comps for me in the in the in the in the model was Marteves Bryant as a high end one.

01:16:37
Speaker 2: So we could see kind of that going down. And then let me ask you about Jayen Higgins.

01:16:41
Speaker 1: Do you see Nico Collins in his gest like, is that is that the the high end ceiling for him?

01:16:46
Speaker 3: You think absolutely, yeah, I mean that I'm sure that you know that's more the Bonanza type, but yeah, I could absolutely see him being that. And people remember out there Nico Cohns when he gets drafted second round, right, I mean he fell down to this around and then initially people, you know, his first year, people were like, why they waste a second round pick on this bump? But like you know, Nico, it was a different thing where like his passing offense in college, It's just the quarterback play wasn't as good and it wasn't as an advantageous type situation, and so that's why he ended up falling. He need a little bit of time to develop. I think Higgins. I think he's gonna be ready to hit the ground running a little bit quicker in the NFL. And yeah, people got to stop sleeping on on Higgins. I think Higgins he deserves to be in that discussion with certainly Harris and Io Manor in my opinion. Yeah, I mean, like in this crappy receiver class, it's like, man, how many people you put in above Higgins?

01:17:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I agree.

01:17:42
Speaker 1: It's it's also like like if you're coming at it from a fantasy perspective, like should we be chasing ceiling.

01:17:47
Speaker 2: A little bit here?

01:17:48
Speaker 1: And I think that his ceiling from a from what he can bring to the table statistically is just as high as arguably anyone else in the class. In my opinion, like if if that high end actually hits I like both iowas, I mean, I think they're Boucher, just really really like the do you have a comp handy for for Jalen Nole because mine was the one. The model spit out was Randall Cobb, which I thought was kind of interesting.

01:18:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's not a bad one I got. I got Khalil Shakir.

01:18:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, there you go.

01:18:14
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, and and and maybe even like a little bit better version of Khalil.

01:18:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I love it.

01:18:19
Speaker 1: Thor Man, this was great. People are gonna love it for sure. It was great to finally chop it up. I know that we went a little bit longer than typical, but I had to had to get out the burden takes and some of these wide receiver takes.

01:18:30
Speaker 2: But let ever know what you're working on. Where they can find you. All that good stuff.

01:18:33
Speaker 3: Find me on Twitter at thor Ku, and then the NFL Draft stuff you can find at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life. We're going through all the positions right now. I think actually by tonight is when I turn in my top twenty five receivers, they'll all have player comps. I think I'll write up eighteen twenty of them. You know that will be stuff in there, and then you know, of course we've got mock drafts, and then a week before, ten days before the draft, I'll be dropping my my thor five hundred is always the big board with the five hundred player comps and JJ awesome chopping it up with you for the first time. And I hope I see you in Canton because I need a ride coming back from that stadium.

01:19:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got you, I got you.

01:19:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, the the the your your big board is absolutely like you're a madman.

01:19:12
Speaker 2: You're an absolute madman for putting that together.

01:19:15
Speaker 1: Everyone should definitely check it out and also check out the prospect Guide. You can find it over on lateround dot com if you guys have not checked that out yet. Otherwise, as usual, thanks for tuning in.