951: 10 Trends for Week 13

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Wreatha j J Zacher refa. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine hundred and fifty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Underdog is a great place to play fantasy sports this Thanksgiving. Right now in the lobby, you can check out the Turkey. It's a five dollars entry with two hundred thousand dollars in prizes. It's all centered around one of the best slates of the year, the Thanksgiving Slate. You can check that out and more by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or downloading the app. If you've never played there, make sure you sign up with promo code Late Round. That'll get you a nice deposit offer, as well as my rest of season rankings, which I'm still updating every Tuesday. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Lateround. Now, let's get to these trends. Trend one this week is about the Tampa Bay backfield, Bucky Irving for the first time this season out Snappershod White against the Giants. He ran twenty routes to White's eleven, His running back rush share wasn't anything to write home about. It just forty three percent. It's actually his lowest in five weeks, but it was good seeing the Buccaneers use him more as a receiver. He had a twenty percent target chair. Now, I don't think this means the Buccaneers will use Irving if they face a negative game script. That's probably where Shad White's rolls still. But as I've been saying on the show, the Bucks have a pretty cakewalk schedule rest of season. They're gonna face a lot of positive game scripts and once again, that's gonna benefit Bucky Irving. We're gonna want to watch Tyrone Tracy's usage as we enter week thirteen. He had another fumble and that was likely the key reason that we saw him hit just a forty one percent snapshare against the Buccaneers. That was his lowest mark since Week four. He did hit a double digit percentage target share for the first time in a month. That was thanks to a final drive during garbage time. But that snapshare, it needs to rise in order for Tracy to hit the ceiling that we know that he can hit down the stretch. So Jonathan Brooks made his debut for the Panthers on Sunday, and he played a grand total of five snaps. Now what's hilarious about that usage is that, obviously it means that Chewba Hubbard played a lot, and he did. Cuba had a solid eighty nine percent running back rush share and a fifteen percent target share, and his snapshare was eighty eight percent. That was his second highest snapshare of the season. So the game that Jonathan Brooks is finally healthy for the Panthers give Chewba Hubbard his second highest snapshare of the season. Go figure. I think we can keep treating Hubbard as a must start until we see things change. I don't think we're gonna see this big of a disparity moving forward, but at this point, considering how they've been so slow with Brooks's injury, you have to assume that Tuba is easily their top back rest of season. I had Jacobe Myers is a buy on the fifteen Transaction Show a couple of weeks ago, but I noted that his immediate schedule was tough, but the late season schedule was absolutely there, and most importantly, his usage had been good without DeVante Adams well I never expected him to see a thirty three percent target chair and scored twenty two PPR points against the Denver Broncos. Results over process right. Myers, though, has been getting great usage since DeVante Adams left town. Myers has averaged a target chair per game rate of twenty nine percent. He scored almost fifteen PPR points per game. And don't forget in the fantasy playoffs the Raiders get the Falcons, Jags, and Saints. He should be able to produce when it matters most for you, regardless of who's under center. Trey McBride's lack of touchdowns is absolutely wild. Tight Ends this season have averaged a touchdown in every twenty two targets. Trey McBride hasn't scored a receiving touchdown this year. He has eighty targets, and McBride's obviously better than just the ordinary tight end. According to PFF's expected touchdowns formula, McBride has played three and a half touchdowns below expectation this year. Right now, when looking at PPR points per game, McBride's in third with fourteen point two. Had he scored three touchdowns, I'm not even rounding up here with his expected touchdowns. Had he scored three touchdowns, his average would be sixteen point three Fantasy points per game. He'd be having an elite season at tight end. Let's hope progression hits down the stretch. I saw an interesting tweet from friend of the show Josh Norris oft Underdog, where he noted that DJ Moore's A dot has been one point nine yards since the coordinator ships in Chicago. More does indeed have a one point nine average at the target over his last two week eleven, it was point nine week twelve two point nine. From weeks one to ten, Moore had an a die of nine point four. They're clearly trying to get the ball in his hands because he's a playmaker, and those lower A dots have led to one hundred percent catch rates, and back to back weeks he's got all fourteen of his targets. Now he'll likely need a break one in order to hit a really high ceiling at this rate, but this new deployment is definitely going to raise his floor in PPR formats. We've already seen that happen. He scored fourteen and twenty seven PPR points over his last two Before that, he had four straight games where he didn't even hit eight PPR points. Now, speaking of lower A dots CD, Lamb had an average up of target of three point eight in Week twelve. That's, according to PFF, that was his lowest of the season. Over the last three weeks without Dak Prescott, his A dot has been five point eight. That's almost four yards lower than what it was with Dak. Now, I actually don't see this as a bad thing for his fantasy value. We typically went down the field targets, but with questionable quarterback play, being peppered with easier looks can be a great way to maintain fantasy value. It's not totally unlike what's going on with DJ Moore. It's just that more situation isn't only the quarterback. But I see this as a good thing for Lamb overall. I think he can still easily be a top twenty guy a wide receiver rest of season. I actually think we should be viewing him in PPR formats as sort of a low end wide receiver one, high end wide receiver two. The Eagles are a very run heavy team, but they're pacing to do something kind of historic. I always date my data back to twenty eleven. It's sort of a point in time where the NFL started to change its ways, but also it's around the time I started analyzing fantasy football. But since twenty eleven, only two teams had a pass a rush touchdown rate that was below forty percent, meaning fewer than forty percent of their offensive touchdowns came from a passing touchdown. Those teams were the twenty twenty Patriots, who only scored thirty two time, so it was easier to have that kind of weird ratio. And the other one was the twenty sixteen Buffalo Bills that was a team led by Rex Ryan and quarterbacked by Tarad Taylor. The Eagles right now are at a rate of thirty seven percent. Just thirty seven percent of their touchdowns have come from the pass. That's because Saquon Barkley's playing out of his mind and they've got the Tush push. Now. The Eagles have been lower in that statistic with Jalen Hurts. It's not surprising, but not this low. They haven't had Barkley either, sure, and they'd been more run heavy this year than other seasons. But I still would expect a little bit of regression over the next month. There was some hope that with Mike Evans back, the Buccaneers might throw Jalen McMillan in the slot more. That's his natural position, that's what he played in college. And while McMillan did run the most routes for Tampa Bay on Sunday, Sterling Shepherd was the primary slot guy in Week twelve. In fact, at Cornet PFF, McMillan's slot rate in Week twelve it was lowest on the Buccaneers. He trailed even Mike Evans. I'm just afraid the ceiling is never going to really hit for McMillan until the Bucks really switched things up, because, like I said, in my eyes, he's not playing his natural role. The last trend this week is about c J. Stroud. Stroud has really struggled this year in fantasy football. He scored twenty points in just one game. That's about eight percent of his overall games. Last year he scored twenty or more points and thirty three percent of his games. Now, a few things are happening here. Last season, Stroud had an average up to target that was a full yard higher than where he's at this year, and his completion percentage was actually a little bit higher too, and that's kind of counterintuitive. It means he's not connecting well despite hypothetically easier throws, and we're seeing him suffer on deep balls, which kind of explains this. According to PFF, Stroud has three deep ball touchdowns this year. Those are on throws of twenty plus air yards. He had nine of them last year and then all of the while the texts have been more balanced with how they're scoring their touchdowns. Stroud didn't have an unsustainable touchdown rate last year, but the Texans did throw for twenty seven touchdowns versus running for just ten. With the emergence of Joe Mixon, that ratio of this season is fourteen to thirteen. I still think there's a chance that we get some usability from Stroud down the stretch because there are some OK matchups in there, and Nico Collins is back too, But statistically that's largely the reason why we're seeing what we're seeing with CJ. Stroud. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it. Pretty much anywhere podcast can be found it don't follow me on Twitter at late Round QB, and I'm on blue Sky as well with the exact same handle. Thanks for listening everyone. Like I said, you got one more episode this week. It's the Sleepers episode that'll be out later today. I'll talk to you then