Late-Round Perspectives: Sigmund Bloom Returns

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Sigmund Bloom is a co own or a football Guys dot Com who hosts the audible podcast.

00:00:04
Speaker 2: You've probably heard his voice on the Couch. He was guest number one on Perspectives.

00:00:08
Speaker 1: He's a Ginser who's now out of New Orleans and he'll drop more life with them than anyone in the fantasy football space.

00:00:14
Speaker 3: These are his late round perspectives.

00:00:28
Speaker 4: I want to just revel in that we're here and this is real, and that we've created a sector of the media and the economy where we can sit around and be no it all and be wrong most of the time and still call this our job.

00:00:44
Speaker 2: It's that Yinser magic. That's right, Jay, That's right.

00:00:48
Speaker 1: And speaking of Yinser magic, there's there's some good stuff going on in Pittsburgh right now, some some some better football being played.

00:00:55
Speaker 2: I still am prepared.

00:00:56
Speaker 1: I think every every person from Pittsburgh who may have some sort of attachment to the Steelers is prepared for a first round playoff exit still. But it's nice to see a little bit more of some positivity coming out of of Akerscher.

00:01:08
Speaker 4: And it's Heinesfield and and they haven't us against the world mentality. I want to say hats off to Aaron Rodgers, but this cast off idea and teams. I think Jacksonville has this right now. I think Chicago has this right now. I think teams feel like everybody was against us, everybody doubted us, no one thought we could do this. That's very powerful at this time of year. So this is fun. And I think that there's a lesson that Aaron Rodgers is teaching all of us that I know we're going to get to. Yes, we all have things to learn from Aaron Rodgers.

00:01:50
Speaker 1: From everyone, from from from from Yes, it's true, you know, it does. It does kind of have like the one Steeler team that because this was when I was like peak peak and I'm sure you're like me where it's like, yeah, that's my team that I root for if I root for a team, But it's it's doing this as your job makes you just really appreciate other franchises and other builds and other players and coaches and how they handle things. You know, like I sit here and I marvel at what Lamar Jackson does and my my you know, teenage self, you know, looking at the Ravens in that way, would would hate my you know, late thirties self, you know, but it's just, you know, it's just the way that that it goes with our with our jobs.

00:02:27
Speaker 2: I think fandom can be a beautiful thing.

00:02:28
Speaker 1: I also, you know, we've we've both seen the dark side of fandom on both social media.

00:02:32
Speaker 2: And in just the real world.

00:02:34
Speaker 1: But I think fantom can be can be great and and and it's fun to always connect with people over that. But you mentioned like the the the what Aaron Rodgers has been talking about, and like the the the idea that you have all these players that are coming together that other teams didn't want and such kind of a vibe if I go back and I think back to old Steeler teams, kind of that that O five, O six vibe of that team right where they were seven and five. And then you get that Jerome Bettis Brian Urlocker snow game and he runs him over and that was like the turning point of the season. And maybe maybe the rushing touchdown with Aaron Rodgers against Baltimore.

00:03:09
Speaker 2: Was a turning point of the season for them.

00:03:10
Speaker 1: You know, maybe yeah, right the belt and Mike Tomlin doing it with him on the sideline. You know, we'll see, But you know, like I said, always great to chop it up with Chop it up with you. You were the first ever guests in late Round Perspectives back in the day, and now I think this is like seventy six episodes in or so, so it's great to have you back. And honestly, this is the last Perspective episode of the Fantasy season right of this of this regular season because the holidays and stuff next week, and I really wanted to do sort of a high level recappy. You know, we don't have to get super super detailed about you know, this specific thing that we learned, but more of the vibes of the season and more thinking about how you know, folks and managers might be thinking about stuff entering twenty twenty six and so on. But the first thing that I really wanted to get to is that you you're sort of a voice.

00:04:00
Speaker 2: Of reason within the space at this point.

00:04:02
Speaker 1: You know, you're you're wise, and you're always you know, giving giving very very quality advice. You've given me plenty of advice through the years now that we've we've been friends now for for well over a decade, and so I want to ask you because I think a lot of people, and I look, I'm dealing with this right now too. Right like I famously a couple of weeks ago that that that Broncos Commander's game, when I went into overtime, I needed no RJ.

00:04:26
Speaker 2: Harvey, And of course r J.

00:04:28
Speaker 1: Harvey scores like nine PPR points on that final drive because he scored the touchdown, and I missed out on the playoffs in this league by eight PPR points. And it was essentially because And so I looked at my wife, who was still awake, and I looked at her.

00:04:39
Speaker 2: I go, I need to just throw something.

00:04:41
Speaker 1: And I went to my kitchen and I grabbed my giant water jug and I went outside into my patio and I just tossed it and it broke everywhere, right, And I immediately went inside and I just bought another one. But we all go through these tilting experiences with fantasy, and of course that team is dominant and it's crushing would have probably won, you know, the fantas tittle.

00:05:03
Speaker 2: Or you and I would be playing each other in the Apex League this week. Right, had Jalen Wattle.

00:05:08
Speaker 1: And Chris Boswell scored nine PPR points on Monday night, instead, they scored eight point six and now I am not facing you and you are now facing our buddy Matt Harmon. So I want to I say all that, I preface all that because I tilt.

00:05:21
Speaker 2: Everyone tilts. We all go through these experiences. What is your mindset when you have those bad beats? And what could you sort of bestow on others on how they should handle those bad beats.

00:05:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is where Aaron Rodgers is gonna a whole class, or Joe Flacco if you prefer from Yeah, right, because that was the old man game and now we have Philip Rivers the old And the funny thing is, I'm they're all younger than me. When you saw Joe Flacco after he was traded to the Bengals, a reporter asking like, why why are you still playing? And he said something to the effect of, I know there's going to come in time that I can't play, and I want to know that I've played as much as I could. I left it all out on the field, as they say. And with Aaron Rodgers, I think you can see it, JJ like, why why has Aaron Rodgers turned into grumpy old man Aaron Rodgers, who actually is kind of likable because it's authentic, Like it's he doesn't have this relationship with the media now where he's like, I know that you want me to say this or do this, and I'm going to keep my distance. He's just being himself. But I think Aaron Rodgers came back this year because he wanted to just be a football player with a football team on the very unique journey that only NFL teams take. Even other sports teams can't truly identify with the It's like being part of a battalion at war.

00:06:45
Speaker 2: You lose some of your.

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Speaker 4: Soldiers along the way, and so on and so forth, and you either you know, eventually most teams lose that final battle, right, most teams don't make it. But it's the amazing journey. And fantasy football was created as a microcosm of football to give us the chance to feel like it's our journey and even if you win or lose, really enjoy the journey. Think back to that week that you thought that, oh, I don't know, you know, Woody Marx was going to be your savior or whatever. You think about all the ups and downs that we go through, and it provides a way of marking time shared experiences. It's always stimulating. Fantasy football keeps you in this suspended state of always looking back and trying to learn and apply it to the future. Simultaneously, it gives us something that is a nice diversion from real problems. And I guess that's the other thing is I tell people, if you're tilting because of your fantasy football team, then be happy that you're not tilting because like your mother's in the hospital and she only has a certain amount of.

00:08:01
Speaker 2: Time or something like that. I know that might.

00:08:03
Speaker 4: I mean, I know for some people their mother might be in the hospital, but but really, you know, it is like you and I sitting here and talking about this because I think fantasy football it's all overthinkers, over analyzers. We think we know better, we love to talk about things, we love to think about things, and and through this we found each other. And that's actually what's going on. Whether our teams win or lose is the handshake. It's the rabbit that we're alice, and winning is the rabbit. But it's it's the mad hatter and all the other I'm the mad hatter. It's all of us that you encounter. That's really what this is.

00:08:39
Speaker 2: About Yeah. I love that answer.

00:08:41
Speaker 1: I do think that one thing that I try to keep in mind while because like the the you know that that Apex game that I had against Harmon, I was texting him throughout actually, you know, whenever we were whenever that that Monday night game was going down, and I was like, yeah, I'm taking the l here, you know, kind of reverse psychology type stuff and reverse bloom yeah, yeah, yeah, reverse jinxing it a little bit and just.

00:09:02
Speaker 2: Saying saying You're like, yo, no, no way, Jalen.

00:09:04
Speaker 1: You know, after the first half was over, it's like, there's no way Chris Bosmall and Jaylen Wadele.

00:09:08
Speaker 2: Are going to score six PPR points in the second half here.

00:09:11
Speaker 1: And then Harmon's like, oh, they got it easily, you know, all that kind of stuff. And then I think back and yeah, I was really frustrating whenever it ended and I lost, and you know, I lost by point four. That's not fun. I had Woody Marks on my team too, and he obviously got hurt. He would have easily.

00:09:23
Speaker 2: Gotten that point four, you know, four more yards had he been healthy.

00:09:27
Speaker 1: But it's also one of those things where I enjoy the storytelling of what fantasy football brings us and in three years it's gonna be really fun reminiscing and be a hey, remember the one time whenever this happened and I was able to wasn't able to overcome this this game against you, and then you know, my My one thing though, is that.

00:09:46
Speaker 2: I hope you just destroy harmon this week.

00:09:48
Speaker 1: I hope that, yeah, I hope that your team just blows up so that I wouldn't have even made, you know, advancement in the playoffs.

00:09:54
Speaker 2: Anyway, you know, you always hope for sure anything to happen.

00:09:56
Speaker 4: But that's one of the funny things like an on the couch my don't boll and Tondra on the couch on my show because my wife, who y'all just saw in the background, she is doing an office league with a dentist office that she works with for the first time. She lost last week because she played Jalen Hurts. I'm sorry, Dak Prescott over Jalen Hurts, right, and she had a chance to win if Devin a Chan was held under like fifteen and it didn't happen. But she learned that it's better to get smoked by like fifty points than to rethink every decision you made and how it's your fault. Yeah you lost, but you know we're all being too hard on ourselves. So it is fascinating though, And then, like you say, you can still watch the next week, see what happens. And then I'm always reminded of the parable the Chinese farmer. I was talking to my buddy Justin Scott Royer and he was talking about how like it's you know, never make those last second decisions. I think he said he talked himself out of Darren Waller at the last second, oh gosh, in a big money contest. And I said, but maybe it's like the Chinese farmer. You know the old story like, oh my son broke his leg, that's bad. Oh they came for the military draft. You don't have to go. That's good. You know, the wild horses and all that. Yeah. Maybe because you will always remember that mistake. Next year you'll be at a fork in the road and you'll make the right decision.

00:11:20
Speaker 2: That's a good point. That's a very good point.

00:11:21
Speaker 1: And you know, if you think about it, there are only only the truly horrific beats, whether good or bad, are the ones that you remember ten years later.

00:11:29
Speaker 4: You know, JJ, some people lost knowing that there was a stack correction. What was that this week? Week five or week six? Yeah, I think yeah, oh yeah, I saw that there was a Williams. Yeah, so you five change. Yeah, there are teams. I saw someone posted that like, if that stat correction was done, they would have made the Fantasy Football playoffs. And chances are I guarantee you those teams would have had a team that would have run the table.

00:11:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, I mean that's that's the That's the thing that hurts the most for me, is that, like that that same league that I've just been cursed the last two years in this league. The way that I view it, right, that the negative of side to this, it's like, oh, I'm cursed.

00:12:02
Speaker 2: I'm just so unlucky.

00:12:03
Speaker 1: And then meanwhile, you know, the best ball season's going great and all that, and I'm you know, you try to latch onto that, but you're you know, it's it's your your human negativity bias definitely seeps in all the time. And you know, last year in this exact same league, I didn't get a bye even though I had the second best record in the league because.

00:12:18
Speaker 2: There were divisions. It's a it's a local league. There were divisions, and then obviously I lose round one, and then my team dominates rounds two and three, right, yeah, and so.

00:12:26
Speaker 1: I would have won. Had there just not been divisions in this league, I would have won the championship. And then this year team's going off. It's great, it's got Travon Henderson, you know all that, and uh and yeah, I mean it's it's it's painful that you could you could sit and bask in that glory of having a back to back championship, and then you like and then you start to get existential with it. You're like, well, what does that even matter at the end of the day, you know what, Like this, we're just on a floating rock.

00:12:49
Speaker 2: Anyway, what does it? What does a championship matter out of out of a fourteen team league anyway?

00:12:53
Speaker 4: Well, and here's the thing, JJ, and here is why. As it is in the NFL, so it is in fantasy football. This is what the teams have to go through.

00:13:02
Speaker 2: This is exactly on a greater scale too. I mean, you know, like on a I.

00:13:05
Speaker 4: Promise, grander scale, I promise you like when a team is eliminated like when Joe Burrow was eliminated from the playoffs last week, he was thinking about those passes he threw against Buffalo, et cetera, et cetera. But you know, you try to find a way to be resilient, get it together, and next we're gonna learn and we're gonna be better next year. I lost the Apex Championship last year because I talked myself into putting Marvin Mims in and then I talked myself out.

00:13:27
Speaker 1: Of it and he would have won it them and then he yeah, yeah, it's it's it's tough. It's tough, but I think that it's good to talk about it, because number one, when I talk about it, people are always like, oh, it's so great that someone that is you know, has has an audience like this and you're you're speaking about like you tilt too, Yeah, guys, I mean to be fair. I get more upset with myself when I just give bad advice, because that's my livelihood, right, Like my teams are secondary to me, like they're not nearly as important. But obviously my teams are going to go hand in hand with my advice because I'm gonna draft off of the way that I feel about these guys and you know, pick guys up and such.

00:14:01
Speaker 2: But you know, it's it's the advice side that's more important.

00:14:04
Speaker 1: So let's get into some of that advice stuff and in the analysis side.

00:14:08
Speaker 2: When you look back on this season, what's been the biggest surprise.

00:14:12
Speaker 4: For you this year? It's Jacoby Brissett. It's Jacoby Brissett. And it's an important one. It's an important one for us to remember because the idea is never say never, never say never in fantasy football.

00:14:25
Speaker 2: And as I've been.

00:14:27
Speaker 4: Beating the drum for a few years now, JJ, I mean I have I have settled on this. The most important skill quote unquote skill in fantasy football is perseverance. Okay, that's That's more important than knowing ball folks. It's more important than knowing to listen to small and smart like JJ. And and then the next most important thing is being willing to accept a new reality before there's an overwhelming amount of evidence that it's true. Yep. And that includes being open to seemingly absurd things. Because Jacoby Brissett as somebody who turn would turn a pass offense into one of the most productive pass offenses in the league was absurd. However, if you've been watching Kyler Murray's career, you know, even watching Joshua Dobbs as the quarterback for the Cardinals maybe gave you an inkling that Kyler Murray is not actually running an NFL pass offense. He's not actually running the plays true to their conception and design. And Jacoby Brissett, even though he came into the league, what did he throw like nineteen passes in his first game for the Patriots when Brady was suspended. He came into the league as a game manager, and even until this year, his reputation was a game manager. But he's a veteran quarterback. Let's look at like Mac Jones. Now, Mac Jones is a Kyle Shanahan kind of quarterback. But these veteran quarterbacks who can actually take the plays from the whiteboard to the field can unlock a lot. Whenever the starting quarterback, you know, it's not just how much will player improve an offense, it's how much was the previous quarterback leaving things on the rotting on the vine.

00:16:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know that was the most.

00:16:17
Speaker 4: Consequential development in that it turned Trade McBride into league winner. It turned Michael Wilson to potential league winner. We'll see about Marvin Harrison, and it rewarded people that said by week two or week three, I trust your Kobe Brisett because now it's nine straight weeks, including against the Texans because there was enough garbage time and the Cardinals defense is adding. Now what's going to be funny is this week against Atlanta it is set up for a shootout?

00:16:41
Speaker 2: Is this the rug pool? Is this where the fantasy football got I keep thinking that too.

00:16:45
Speaker 1: I mean, has it couldn't really be set up better for that offense the next two weeks? Right when they get Cincinnati next week and obviously they funnel their looks through the tight end, and Cincinnati can stop tight ends. And then this week you get Atlanta, who's been reeling the second half of the season defensively, Like both defense is really have just been Arizona and Atlanta have been a lot worse defensively, And yeah, like this is one of those things where I keep thinking about this with Trey McBride and where I'm like, we're all like, yeah, he's gonna score thirty fantasy points in Week seventeen, and then watch him score five, you know, watch them have watch him have his worst, his worst outing. But I think all logic and again, I this kind of goes back to what we were talking about at the top, But like, if you had a sound process to get to that decision, if you were logical and you didn't do something really stupid, you.

00:17:26
Speaker 2: Can't really be that mad about yourself.

00:17:27
Speaker 1: Like, you know, I benched ad Andi Mitchell last week for Jalen Waddle, and I actually did it for Stefan Diggs too, and that killed me right like that in that Apex League, and that's the reason why you could say I lost. I also started Theo Johnson over Dallas Goddard last week, but I had AJ Brown in my lineup, and I'm not going to start two Philadelphia Eagles pass catchers when even now in hindsight, they threw the ball eighteen times in that game, you.

00:17:52
Speaker 2: Know, like fifteen twelve out of fifteen.

00:17:54
Speaker 1: Yea, yeah, exactly exactly, and so so like, I don't think that any of that from a process perspective in my lineup was bad or wrong. You know, Stephan Diggs crush Buffalo the last time they played them, and for whatever reason, they're just not giving him a high route share.

00:18:06
Speaker 4: Right now, you know that like when you I love cecil says you have a life, we don't. That applies to all of us fantasy football analysts, right And you know that you've gotten to peak fantasy football analyst JJ when you get to this like god level knowledge And I'm saying that mockingly, where no matter what happens, JJ, you say, I should have known, right, right, I should have known Kenneth Walker's going to go off against the Rams. It was the last one hundred total yard game he had back in Week ten. I should have known Kenneth Walker only got thirty total yards and the Seahawks only scored three points. I should have known, right, No matter what happens, you know enough supporting information that your brain will always say I should have known.

00:18:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's similar.

00:18:47
Speaker 1: You know, I got a mailbag question about Jacoby Brisett this week, and they were like, how could I possibly play Jacoby Brissett over Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert And I'm like, well, look, both of those guys could outscore Jakobe Bursett this week. But I do think that process and given what we've seen and what we know about that environment, I have him ranked higher than those twas.

00:19:06
Speaker 4: I do too, you know, And I think that it's one of those questions to Bob Harris has divorced the names from the numbers, you know. And that's the thing is, if you just look at Lamar Jackson's game, log I mean, he's not a strong start. The Ravens like to shorten the game. If you look at Justin Herbert the last few weeks, and you knowing that Quinn and Williams is in concussion protocol, so hey, if the Chargers with their defense, they're a defense led team right now, if they can hand the ball off to Idell and Hampton like thirty five times, they'll be perfectly content to do that this week. Jakobe Brissett is the one that the offense is running through.

00:19:41
Speaker 2: That guy, Yeah, exactly.

00:19:44
Speaker 1: But I like the call out of Jacoby Brissett as the biggest surprise because I think that's also like just an example of a greater picture and a bigger picture of quarterback play right now in the league of you know, I don't know what the real maybe you have some insight on this, but I don't have a real answer as to why they're I don't know if there's a development problem.

00:20:04
Speaker 2: I thought Kirk Cousins had a really I don't know if you saw that. I saw that. I did.

00:20:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, a good answer of like how progressions have changed essentially from when he first entered the league and what it's like now, and that you have to get through you're not necessarily you're getting through your progressions more like you're focused more on that at this point than you were back then, where you were more so reading defenses and you were able to essentially just attack certain pockets of defenses based on what you were seeing, which is a lot easier because you're only going you're only looking at part of the field, and you're only going through a couple of progressions, whereas now, because of the way defenses are playing, you have to go through very quickly, five guy, you know, like five players very fast. And that's where I think we see a player like a JJ McCarthy who's very young, you know, maybe not being able to get through that as quickly. And then why potentially this could be why we see these veteran players who have had more or even Tyler Shuck who's a you know, twenty five, twenty six year old rookie being able to come in and not be as bad of a pick or as bad of a player as many people you know, originally thought. And it's just a really interesting dynamic right now. And do you think that we're about to see especially with Tua being benched, do you think we're about and given the contract that they gave him, do you think we're about to see a shift in finally teams only giving the elite, elite, obviously elite quarterbacks these big contracts or are we still going to be in this like, you know, these guys who are kind of impurgatory that we don't know if they're good or not still getting these monster deals and kind of ruining you know, the future of those teams if they do tailspan and have bad seasons.

00:21:35
Speaker 4: I think that supply and demand, like basic economics, dictates that we're going to stay in this situation.

00:21:42
Speaker 2: And it's not so bad.

00:21:43
Speaker 4: I did think we were on our way out because about ten years ago, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton were both notoriously like had their critics that would say they're they're a purgatory quarterback, even though both of those teams were doing very well at that time, and they were basically signed to like year like team option contracts. Basically those contracts were structures so that every year the team could decide, you're worth sixteen million dollars this year. That's how much quarterbacks have grown and salary by the way, and now, you know, it seems to me that because there's not even twenty adequate starting quarterbacks, that when an adequate starting quarterback comes up for a new contract, he gets a top of the market contract. Some of it is also, by the way, the salary cap growth and acceleration, So you know, agents know that, of course you can commit this money in the future because the CAP's going to grow, right, you know, seven percent year over year or something like that, and the team that doesn't have an adequate starting quarterback will pay. And I wonder if that would be the shift, because here's where it takes courage. It takes courage to say, instead of paying brock perty or two or whoever, fifty million dollars at a time when the team seems to be trending in the right direction, because that's the whole thing, right, it's an it's the franchise saying, like, we like the way things are going, we're gonna keep going in that direction. Trade the quarterback him, trade him to a team, and then start over. And that's exactly what Kevin O'Connell basically did. He didn't trade Sam Donald, but he didn't sign him. And I think we're actually seeing as the year goes on, JJ, fascinating enough that Sam Donald's flaws are very apparent and Kevin O'Connell not marrying Sam Donald. At least that part of the decision looks wise. That's the part where like why pay these guys?

00:23:30
Speaker 2: But JJ McCarthy.

00:23:32
Speaker 4: The other part is being patient about quarterback development, and maybe it just is with these defenses, it's going to be very difficult. You know, Drake May's a savant, but otherwise it's very difficult for these quarterbacks. First, they need reps. That's why Tyler Shucket it's reps. But to you to your other point, where I think this affects fantasy football, that's really interesting, JJ, is I think everybody's waking up to how much variance there is week to week in the NFL. In some ways it's what keeps us coming back, and in other ways it's what makes fantasy football just seem senseless. I mean, what a ridiculous exercise we do. But I think what you laid out is very important because it shows you Number One why I think CJ. Stroud this begins a good example why some quarterbacks Bo Nix and their offenses can really beat up on bad defenses, but then when they face like a middling defense, it shrinks by fifty percent because everything works against the bad defenses. And then the other part is, if we're talking about going to more pure progressions over reading a defense, offensive line play matters. Kirk Crussin said, like, geez, if you're going to get to three, four or five in the progressions, next thing, you know, the backside rushers on you. So offensive line play becomes more important. Why did Justin Herbert collapse?

00:24:48
Speaker 1: I was gonna say that's going to be the example this year is I think a lot of people will attribute like the injury that he's dealing. It's not that it's literally the I mean, look at their splits with and without Joe Alt.

00:25:00
Speaker 2: Right, it's the line. It's it's the offensive line for the Chargers.

00:25:04
Speaker 4: So we every week we learn, and you know, next year we're going to get some of this stuff right. And then we're going to get some of this stuff wrong. But I think that much like the NFL, I'll sum this topic up in this way because I love all sports, like I'm getting amped about the World Cup, you know, I love all sports. I love all of these competitions. But why why the NFL, Like why focus just on the NFL other than our ins or roots, because football is are really and Chuck Klausterman wrote a really good piece back on ESPN's page to ESPN had a blog. It was actually pretty cool. Hunter Thompson wrote for it, and it was an excerpt from his book I think called Walking the Dinosaur, and he talked about how the LA A eleven offense, remember the A eleven offense, and basically how like football has rules and then you can do anything that's allowed within the rules.

00:25:53
Speaker 2: Anything.

00:25:54
Speaker 4: If the rules don't say you can't do it, you can do it. And because of that, it's very progressive. It's and this is where we get to copycat league right now, it's the push push whatever. If it works, it's like DNA, it's like Darwinism. Right. If it works, it proliferates until it doesn't work, and then it doesn't proliferate, So it's we can never step in the same river twice. It's always different, it's always changing. It's frustrating, but it keeps it so vital and stimulating.

00:26:24
Speaker 2: I think that you also see that.

00:26:26
Speaker 1: I mean, look, you've been doing this longer than I have, and I've been, you know, doing this now full time for thirteen fourteen years. But even in that timeframe, I've seen the ebbs and flows of the actual game changing fantasy football and how those evolutions occur and happen. And I think we're seeing it now even today. Where one of the things and let's move on to this next topic because I think it plays into this.

00:26:49
Speaker 2: You know the scene's about to end. There's only two weeks left.

00:26:51
Speaker 1: I mean, by this point we generally know what our teams look like going into the semi finals, and then next week, you know there's gonna be injuries, but that's basically who we're adding and dropping, Like, we know who the players are at this point.

00:27:01
Speaker 2: That's why I don't want to focus too much on that.

00:27:03
Speaker 1: What I do want to focus on is when we look back on this season, what do you think is going to be one of the biggest stories and I have something that I want to add, but I want to hear what you say first, because it does.

00:27:12
Speaker 2: What I have to say does play into what we were talking about a little bit.

00:27:15
Speaker 4: This has been a very unique fantasy football season, agreed. There has not been another season like this, and it maps to a very unique NFL season. Let me touch on the NFL season stuff first, with the exception of maybe I don't know Carolina, every team that makes the postseason tournament can win the Super Bowl. Yeah, and we can't usually say that. It's why playoff fantasy football can be awesome this year. If you haven't done playoff fantasy football, you can do with five of your friends. You can score it by hand. You can do an actual draft in person, or an email draft, or do it over your text messages. You don't need any league software or anything. But it makes you have to take a stand on how far teams are going to make it in the playoffs, which is there's gonna be a wide set of opinions now in fantasy football. What's interesting, JJ is, here's something you have not heard this year. Oh well, all my justin Jefferson teams. It doesn't matter if he goes off because I didn't make the playoffs because of him or Ashton Genty or Lad McConkie or whoever. Right, everybody has stepped on land mines. Everybody, even the good players like Jamar Chase had a stretch with Jake Browning. Right, if you drafted, if you avoided Trey McBride because of Kyler Murray, you were right.

00:28:39
Speaker 2: And yet he's gonna be a league winner.

00:28:41
Speaker 4: Right. So it was again about perseverance and where it culminates is here we are in Week sixteen, JJ, and if you're playing, you have some real decisions to make. Unlike most seasons, it's like, well, okay, well hey, seven or eight of your starters are like those are the guys that got you there right this season? I mean at running back two or flex, at quarterback, at tight end. If you don't have like one of the top two or three at wide receiver, I feel like, what are they're like fifteen guys.

00:29:18
Speaker 1: Maybe that was actually what I was going to say. Since you just brought it up, I'll just chime in. But that was the thing that I was going to say, as like a big story this year you and I mean, when you rank players every week, and I look at wide receiver, I say to myself, there's eight good players, and then there's just the rest right right, And yeah, there's like groupings of what the rest is. But you know, the wide receiver ones go to like I don't know, Nico Collins ish right into that area. And then there's a giant chunk of wide receiver twos, and then there's an even bigger chunk of wide receiver threes. And the data bears us out too. The data says that wide receiver ones this year, if you just look at the wide receiver six in terms of points per game and compare that to history, the wide receiver six this year is outperforming history, right outperforming what we've seen over the last decade plus. But then you get into the wide receiver eighteen twenty four thirty thirty six historically bad, like historically bad. And I think that if you are playing fantasy football still you've experienced that, where like I have a bunch of Steffan Diggs this year, right, he's been unbelievably frustrating to have because they just aren't giving him the route share that he needs to be able to thrive and do a lot from a production standpoint. Obviously, what they're doing is fine, you could argue because they're winning. But you know, selfishly, if you have him, you're like, man, why won't they just use him more? Because we've seen the kind of production he can post when they are using him more. And so, but then you take a step back and you're like, well, say Flowers is like this too, or has been like this too, or Courtland Sutton has been like this. You know, Troy Franklin over like you see these ebbs and flows, like Troy Franklin was their wide receiver one for four weeks in the season, and then all of a sudden, Pat Bryant jumps him, and now Troy Franklin's an afterthought.

00:30:58
Speaker 2: I know he was fine last week, but he still wasn't He.

00:31:00
Speaker 1: Was still running fewer routes in little Jordan Humphrey last week, you know. And so to me this season and you mentioned that it's been like unlike any other I definitely feel that way as an analyst because I've almost seen it like we've had these like many seasons within the season exactly.

00:31:16
Speaker 2: That's it.

00:31:16
Speaker 4: Cecil calls it windows. Matt Waldman has been counseling us for years that the NFL consumes the season in these four week chunks and you and everybody. So if I could give advice to folks from a fantasy football perspective.

00:31:34
Speaker 2: Here is we're all used to.

00:31:37
Speaker 4: We gear up all off season, we draft our teams, and then for the next week, two, three into the beginning of the season, we adjust to the new reality. Right, But that task doesn't end in September. That's the entire season. The entire season. You should be open to things being different than they were last week and last month. And honestly, looking backward past a month, I don't know what it's useful for at this point unless you're getting players back and you're looking at like, well, when the last time they had this player, what did the offense look like? But as far as trends, I feel like you're looking at the last three of weeks. And I'll give you another good example here. Teams with new head coaches like Jacksonville Chicago. We heard this all preseason and offseason. It's going to be rough at first. Yes, you know, Jacksonville's blocking schemes are more complex than the offensive line have had to digest. Chicago is getting used to a coaching staff that is requiring precision from them, and what are we seeing who are too the hottest offense is now right, right? Yeah, So understanding the context of these things is so important and not being surprised. We should be more surprised if Jacksonville Chicago were getting worse over the course of the year.

00:32:47
Speaker 1: And then you can look at the individual level too. I mean there's there's players like in September, everyone was like, yeah, Roma Dunza and Mecca Buca league winners. Yeah, you're You're just gonna use them.

00:32:58
Speaker 4: But now that Michael Oyle, this is actually a DISCUSSI okay, okay, this is this is something that I'm going to be fired up about because we right before we hopped on, I had been talking in the Late Round discord with a bunch of this of subscribers about.

00:33:11
Speaker 2: Trayvon Henderson's season.

00:33:13
Speaker 1: Okay, and this is we don't have to dig into Henderson in particular just yet, but I do want to talk about this concept and idea. But Trayvon Henderson to Mecca Buca have done the complete opposite in terms of how they've produced this year, right, And I would argue pretty strongly that you actually that a Mecca Buka, despite what he did to start the year and despite me, I mean, I was super high on him as a prospect and you know, as a player, and I still am. I think he's got a very good career ahead of him, right but right now things are very shaky because of what's going on in Tampa Bay. But I would argue that a Mecca A Buka has been even if you know, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but let's just say Abuka has been better versus ADP or within his position than Henderson has. I would argue that he's been a worse fantasy asset for your individual team because he starts so hot. And this is what you're saying, like kind of kind of anchoring to what happened earlier in the season. He starts so hot and then you start to make excuses for when he's not so hot, right, and yes, there should be some regression eventually, hitting right there, Realistically, he's not going to have a fifty percent catchable target rate, you know, forever. You know, that's just not gonna It's just not what happens. But it's only a eight game sample, Like anything can happen within like that, that small of a sample, and now you got Mike Evans back and Jenleman Millen back, and the problem is you feel bad benching a mecha Buka and so you're using him and you're just starting him and you're getting nine PPR points and you're like eventually, and you could make the argument that it's similar with Justin Jefferson right now, where the matchups are great and you're like, I can't and look, I have Jefferson in the semi final this week. I'm not going to bed him because I don't feel I just you know it, if he goes off and you bench one of the best wide receivers in the game, you got to live with that, you know. And that's fine if the psychological compo and of this game and you having to just like live with those decisions, that's fine. But with a guy like Trayvon Henderson, he starts off so slow, even though he was so hyped, he starts off so slow, and then eventually you hit a wall and you're like, I'm not.

00:35:13
Speaker 2: Playing Trayvon Henderson.

00:35:15
Speaker 1: Why would I play travon you know, week three, especially after that like Miami game and stuff, when things were just a disaster, You're like, Wow, I'm I can't just throw him out on the field because this is not an easy decision.

00:35:24
Speaker 2: You know, he's clearly not.

00:35:26
Speaker 1: There yet, right, but then he had the It was nice from his perspective and from a fantasy manager's perspective, because there was a point in time that was very clear that he was going to get more work, which was the Ramandre Stevenson injury. And then since then it's been rocket ship emojis. And since then, you know, you've been able to enjoy you know, a fringe RB one, if not in RB one in fantasy football. And so my question to you is, do you think that's the way that people should be looking at this, that it is this weekly game. But then let's specifically talk about Travon Henderson, and my question would be, do you think Henderson right now, we have two more weeks to go. So let's just assume that he's going down the street. He's not gonna score thirty PPR points every week. Let's just say that he averages like sixteen the next two games. Right, do you think we're gonna look back and say he was a good pick, a bad pick?

00:36:15
Speaker 2: Or just a neutral pick. I think he was a bad pick because I.

00:36:20
Speaker 1: Want to I want to talk about this because I think this is a really, really good and interesting discussion to happen.

00:36:25
Speaker 4: I think he was a bad pick because he was what a fourth round pick, right round around a fourth rounder.

00:36:32
Speaker 2: And.

00:36:34
Speaker 4: You did get the stretch when Stevenson was out, and hopefully you went with him last week against Buffalo. But the problem is he still was only in about fifty percent of the snaps last week, and Baltimore's defense looked like they were rabbid against there. Here's what makes me a little bit worried about Henderson and really about New England in general this week. You know. I mean, if somebody came to me and said, I'm crazy to put Drake May on the bench for Jacoby Brissett or Jared Goff for Trevor Lawrence, I'd say that's not crazy.

00:37:08
Speaker 2: It's not crazy.

00:37:09
Speaker 4: Because now, if Jacksonville beats Denver earlier in the day, some doors open for the Patriots to get the number one seed. But putting that aside, the Patriots know that they can lose to Baltimore and still win the division. All they have to do is beat Miami and the Jets. They know that because they lost the Tyber Can you believe that because they lost to the Raiders that actually happened. Because they lost to the Raiders, they are We're going to lose the tiebreaker to the Broncos.

00:37:42
Speaker 2: So they're in trouble.

00:37:45
Speaker 4: The Ravens are a cornered, wounded animal right now. And I just think I don't know how the Patriots can bring that kind of intensity, especially after the Patriots were soaring and I didn't expect this to happen to a Mike Frable team, because the Mike Frable Titans teams were the teams did this to other teams. Yeah real, they said, you let your guard down. You thought you won, but you didn't. The game's not over, so you know, now, now, could there be one well blocked run that Travaon Henderson gets a seventy yard run and that's It's like Michael Wilson in his garbage time drive last week. I mean, it doesn't you know, It's it's fantasy football, so it's never certain. But you know, I think you're right, and there's we could talk about this for hours. We could do a whole podcast series. On like psychology. Again, that's why my show is on the couch because already my wife is like, I'm not taking any Cowboys because she played Dak Prescott over Jaysn hurts. She's like, I'm not taking any cowboys next year, you know, so you can, you can take advantage of this if you're not consumed by it. But at the same time, I encourage everybody to play fantasy foo ball very emotionally. Yeah, because because because like your life, in your life, and you get skewed by emotion.

00:38:47
Speaker 2: Now that hurts, So yeah, get it all out in fantasy. It's a good point. It's a good point.

00:38:51
Speaker 1: So here's my here's my argument with Travon and I I want to preface by saying that, like, yes, I really like Traveon his prospect, and I liked him as a fourth round pick this year.

00:38:59
Speaker 2: I think I was looking earlier.

00:39:01
Speaker 1: Whenever I was discussing things with patrons in the discord, I had him like fortieth overall or something like that, and or no, thirty fourth overall.

00:39:09
Speaker 2: I think, so a late third round, you know, value on him and redraft.

00:39:13
Speaker 1: And then I went on The Fantasy Footballer Show, the Biggest podcast fantasy podcast in the world, and I said, Hey, my MVP this year is going to be Travon Henderson.

00:39:20
Speaker 2: So I want to preface with all of.

00:39:22
Speaker 1: That if people think that there's a bias here, because I'm not trying to approach us with bias, but I want to be transparent. My thing with Henderson is that because like the anti argument for Henderson for folks today on Discord was that, oh, he didn't give you anything until like week ten or whatever, you know, whenever things like really started to ramp up for him, which is totally factually true. My argument against that is would be, hopefully you're not just starting him no matter what you know, like like right right, That's where I think, you know, I do all this stuff in spreadsheets, and you know, I'm looking at ADP expectation and how players performed against expectation, and that's generally going to get you in the right direction.

00:40:00
Speaker 2: But that's not everything.

00:40:00
Speaker 1: You got to think about how the ebbs and flows are working, and what you're doing weekly and managing these teams. And you know, I can go back and look at my weekly rankings and see that Travion was not a top thirty running back as early as week three, you know, So, yes, you drafted him early, but you weren't necessarily starting him as early as week three, week four, week five, And so if you weren't getting that production, Yes, it sucks if you draft him in round three, round four and you weren't getting anything. But I also think back bloom to what drafts were like this summer, and do you remember they're just being such an obvious fall after that like return after like the JSN T. Higgins kind of area, and after that you were like, well, I don't really I don't really want to get Marvin Harris anybody.

00:40:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, right, And.

00:40:46
Speaker 1: So I think that that's also driving up the and like shifting the narrative maybe a little bit. With a guy like Henderson, was that part of Yes, he got steamed, he got hyped, and the preseason certainly didn't help with that. And it annoys me sometimes that I get placed in this bucket of like, oh, you just fell for the hype. I'm like, no, I really liked him as a prospect, Like I just liked him as a player. It wasn't because I saw what he did on a kick return, you know, And that that's why.

00:41:09
Speaker 2: I boosted him up.

00:41:10
Speaker 1: But when I go back and look, I think the only guy that you like, you know, it was Kyrien and James Cook in that area that hopefully you were able to get them ahead of Travion. I had Traveon, I think ahead of James Cook, which was a mistake. But there was landmine after landmine, I mean a right, Alvin Kamara, Breeze Hall, you know there's been There's just a lot of and then the wide receivers too, Marvin Harrison, Junior, DK Metcalf, like there were players in there that you didn't feel that great about. And that's why I think looking back, because right now I plugged it in yesterday Travon Henderson, So I look at ADP expectations. So I just plug in their ADP and then I look at history and I have these curves that tell me essentially what was expected by that player in points per game at that particular ADP. Because a lot of people look at you know, Henderson, Like I even tweeted about a poll before we started the show that said was Treyvon Henderson a good pick, a bad pick, or a neutral pick?

00:42:08
Speaker 4: Right?

00:42:08
Speaker 1: And the response from people was like, well, he's the RB eighteen, and he was drafted at RB seventeen, so therefore he's more of a neutral, you know, situation.

00:42:16
Speaker 2: But that's not how this works. Like if you.

00:42:17
Speaker 1: Drafted an RB five and he's the RB eight, that's a great pick, right because expectation wise, there's.

00:42:24
Speaker 2: A wide range. There's not that much further north that those guys can necessarily go.

00:42:29
Speaker 1: And so that's why I look at raw points per game because it allows you to have like a real value of where that player is versus expectation. Right now, Trevan Henderson is minus points six points per game below expectation or you know, six points per game, point six points per game below expectation. And so my argument would be, and I want to just hear what you have to say about this because I care deeply about how you feel about this kind of stuff. Yea, yeah, Like my argument would be, he's playing barely below expectation on a points per game basis right now, but his production is coming at such an important time of the fantasy season that yes, realistically, there's no difference between week ten and week one from from a real football players perspective, Like it's just it's just the fact that like Yeah, it's more important that in Week fifteen in the playoffs, he had a monster week and teams with Travon Henderson likely moved on because he had such a I mean, you could look at Best Ball Advanced rate. He has a great advance rate right now because he had this monster game. And the argument against that is, well, you know, those teams didn't make the playoffs because he spent a third or fourth round pick. But I think this year, the players around him, the opportunity cost wasn't that such matter?

00:43:35
Speaker 4: Yeah?

00:43:36
Speaker 1: And then and then on top of that, guys, fifty percent of your league generally will make the playoffs. There's a fifty to fifty proposition that you would you know, all things being equal, that you're going to make the playoffs. To assume that that one player in the third or fourth round is the sole reason, oh yeah, that you're on the wrong side of that fifty to fifty. There's other things going on with your team that you know allowed that to happen. So that's why I would say, right now, I'm more neutral. Right, That's how I would how I would answer that poll. But if he I think it'll depend on the next two weeks. You know, like if he, like you said, I'm worried, like I'm starting Jacoby brissetid over Drake May in a playoff matchup this week because I'm I too, am a little bit concerned about what that Baltimore defense could just flip the switch and just do what they did.

00:44:18
Speaker 2: You know last week they looked really good.

00:44:20
Speaker 1: But yeah, like what if this New England offense just isn't able to move the ball as well? But let you know, if he does score fifteen to twenty PPR points in the next two weeks, I think I might say, even though he was so bad to start the year, right, because you're managing a weekly, we might say he was an okay pick. He's not a league when he's not great, nothing like that. But I think he was at least an okay pick well.

00:44:41
Speaker 4: And to your point, I think an interesting version of the question you asked. And it's so great that you have your community to find out what's well and to find out like what's really going on on the street, you know, yeah, right, It's like this question is only for people that took trevi On Henderson this year. Are you more or less likely to take him next year? Let's say next year he's a third round pick, you know, and and I would guess a lot of people say, yeah, I want, I want Travon Henderson because when I'm reflecting on all this, JJ, the reason people were in on Travon Henderson was that every report to the Patriots are so excited about him, and they said they were working on getting him involved as a receiver. I had him projected for like Austin Eckler's second season, right, you know, like eighty catch seventy eighty catches with some explosive plays, maybe only one hundred carries.

00:45:34
Speaker 2: Yea, and that never materialized.

00:45:36
Speaker 4: It's the it's the it's the So arguably we haven't even seen what Travon Henderson was supposed to be, why he was going in the fourth round.

00:45:47
Speaker 2: And if we do see that next year, wheels up, yeah, rocket ship. Yeah it's gonna be it's gonna be insane.

00:45:53
Speaker 1: But also a big discussion point with all of this is just rookies in general.

00:45:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, this rookie class has been so interesting to me.

00:46:01
Speaker 1: It's been so bizarre in some ways, because all of my research says that it's logical too. I always I always like to match what data is saying with what the natural human brain would say about something, right like just what uh you know what, what's rational? And and rookies perform way better the second half of the season than the first generally speaking, like overall trend wise, which of course that makes sense. They're getting more reps, they're getting used to the game, they're getting more uh, they're they're gonna use more you know, on a football field. And so but the thing is is that can you can you think of any rookie right now that like every year we have at least like two or three that seem to be surging at the end of the season, and and.

00:46:40
Speaker 2: It's Travion the only one that's really truly I mean, maybe RJ. Harvey, maybe like.

00:46:45
Speaker 4: Harold Fannin Yeah right, well Harold has love yeah yeah, but but but again, but like Loveland and Burden.

00:46:52
Speaker 1: For instance, because Burden's playing really well too, but both of them are more of the of the oh we're getting excited for.

00:46:57
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty six type of players right.

00:46:59
Speaker 1: Because because the because the route shares are not like extreme or you know, they're not, and so the production is not necessarily there yet hopefully it will be because I you know, it's been great watching them. But do you think that this is gonna like shift the way that people look at rookies in the future. Do you think this is a blip. Do you think this is a weird year? You know, four rookies, Like, how are you just viewing this class in general?

00:47:21
Speaker 2: The weird year part of.

00:47:23
Speaker 4: It, JJ is that it was actually a very impactful season for rookies. If anything, you should look back at this season and say, I should be more willing to take chances on rookies in my fantasy drive. I love Yeah, keep talking, keep talking, because first of all, the point you were making earlier and Mecca Abuka was an eighth, ninth round pick who we could start comfortably and help us win for like five or six weeks out of the season. That's a win, right. Tyler Warren was tight end eleven, twelve whatever. He was tight end five, top five tight end for a long str the season before Daniel Jones got hurt. Right, the two biggest impact rookies were Maryon Hampton and Cam Skataboo, and they promptly went down with ankle injuries as soon as they look like league winners. How different is the conversation if those guys don't get hurt preach Travis Hunter was going to break out and he hurt himself in practice. What if a healthy Travis Hunter was part of Trevor Lawrence now feeling his confidence in this offense.

00:48:33
Speaker 1: This is gonna make this is by the way, the Travis Hunter talk is going to make me want to throw this jug on my ah.

00:48:38
Speaker 4: So yeah, but.

00:48:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's that's that's a great point.

00:48:41
Speaker 1: Like part of the problem in the way that we create these narratives is that we're doing it based off of especially with rookies.

00:48:48
Speaker 2: We're doing it based off of a handful of guys.

00:48:51
Speaker 1: You know, Like people are looking at the top five running backs that were drafted this year, what it would be Ashon Genty, who, yes, has been a disappointment. I don't even think it's been a disappointment of him as a player. It's just obviously the environment is just crushing Trey Van Henderson, R J. Harvey, Caleb Johnson was an a Mari and Hampton or I think those are the top five and there's a story behind all of them that as to why things went the way that it did. But collectively, they've been disappointments because of injury, because of the way coaching stabs have handled their usage, and because of the offensive environments, or because they you know, muff to kickoff early in the season and they didn't see the field again after you know that that muff kickoff and Kenneth Gainwell became the RB one for their team.

00:49:33
Speaker 4: Well and Hampton. I'm going to touch on Hampton and Henderson really quickly. Yeah, And I don't even know, JJ, I don't know what I learned. I don't know if I learned anything right, because because if you said Omaron Hampton, because of the kind of coach Jim Harbaugh is, because of the kind of coach that Greg Roman is, Because Naujie Harris, as much as we don't like how he doesn't add value to his touches, coaches love running back like Najie Harris. And when the Chargers coaching staff sees Harris and Hampton side by side, they're gonna end up favoring Harris this year.

00:50:09
Speaker 2: That was right. That was right.

00:50:11
Speaker 4: If Naji Harris doesn't get hurt Omarion Hampton is, we're looking at him kind of like Caleb Johnson not as severe, sure, but if you go back and look at Omarion Hampton's carries when he was sharing with Najie Harris, when he was sharing at the beginning of the season, he did not look good. He didn't and then as soon as he knew he was the guy, Yes, some sort of switch flip. Likewise with Travon Henderson. Ye are they gonna Playterrell Jennings ahead of him? Right, But as soon as he knew it was his job, a switch flip. So I don't know what to take out of that except that take more chance, keep taking chances on rookies.

00:50:50
Speaker 1: And I also think when we had these discussions, we forget about guys who have been pretty great values like what he marks, you know, like.

00:50:57
Speaker 2: Kyle Manunguy, Kyle Mnung guy. You know, players who have been totally fine.

00:51:02
Speaker 1: And you know what's what's funny though, in Crosskey Merritt, Yeah, Crosskey Merritt had his moments and and and you know, hopefully pre his steam. You know, whenever they traded Brian Robinson stuff, you were able to draft him.

00:51:12
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, like.

00:51:14
Speaker 1: I think that the overall I actually I know the overall sentiment is that rookies are we should avoid, We shouldn't, you know, pay them any mind and just and.

00:51:21
Speaker 2: Forget about them. I did do a study. It was actually episode a.

00:51:25
Speaker 1: Thousand of the Late Round podcast, and I did a study where I looked at whether or not rookies were becoming bad bets in redraft leagues, because obviously people are.

00:51:36
Speaker 2: Getting more and more and understanding more and more that rookies can be valuable in redraft and for years they were some of the best values that we could possibly find in our redraft leagues.

00:51:47
Speaker 1: And what I found was is that from a trend perspective, yes, people were drafting rookies earlier and earlier, like if you just look at the market trends, the ADP trends, and but but uh, wide receivers were still far out pacing ADP expectation. Like rookie wide receivers as a whole have been the best like age bets that you can make in a re draft league, just given where they generally go. Running Back has become more of a neutral kind of rookie running backs have become a little bit more neutral, but still more favorable. But you could look at like second year running backs or better bets and some other ages and stuff like that. But but generally speaking, entering this year, we shouldn't have said to ourselves, no, they're getting steamed up too much. We should we should be avoiding them, right. I do think that some of the outcomes have not been that favorable. But like you said, we forget quickly about cam Skataboo. We forget quickly that Amari and Hampton could have had a monster, monster year had he not gotten hurt, you know, and and and.

00:52:43
Speaker 2: Think like things have been.

00:52:44
Speaker 1: You know, things will will change throughout a season and we'll say, oh, well, Trey Van Henderson's only good because Ramandre Stevenson got her, and it's like, okay, But there's plenty of other guys like Michael Wilson's only good because Marvin Harrison Junior.

00:52:55
Speaker 4: Got her right well. And the other question that you have to ask yourself is I get it because if you're drafting a rookie, you probably have high expectations for him, right and then and then when the rookie doesn't meet your high expectations, it feels like the rookie's a disappointment. But I guarantee JJ if people went through this exercise and said, okay, but let's compare Travon Henderson to the running back that went before and after him in drafts. Yeah, let's compare rookies to the veteran counterparts and ADP just as many of them were disappointing.

00:53:24
Speaker 2: Exactly exactly.

00:53:25
Speaker 1: And that's what I think you have to do, because you have not to say that you're doing some sort of like hindsight bs, but you're not, because you made that decision about Travon Henderson with the other players in mind, Like that was the actual opportunity cost that you were taking on when you took Travon Henderson.

00:53:41
Speaker 2: And yeah, there's gonna be players later that hit.

00:53:43
Speaker 1: Better than him, and and and you could you could sit there and say all day, oh, I should have taken this guy. You can play that game all day long, like we should have taken George Pickens over Travon Henderson and he was generally going later. Or even you know Jamison Williams, who's another player who falls into this bucket of weird season where you know, the front half of the year completely useless, you know, crushing teams because he's taking zeros and then now he's winning Fantasy championships, you know, And so I do think that like having that weekly perspective and then trying to just place yourself back to how you were thinking when those decisions were being made can really go a long way and can really help people kind of wrap their head around like the concept of all of this. And I also think with the Travion talk, you know, I found through doing my draft guide every year where I have like players to target and avoid, and I kind of want to frame it differently this year because it's all based on cost and stuff, but whatever. I've found that the way people react to that is that they get so comfortable with floor and they get worried about the high variance stuff. An example of that, two of the players in my avoid section this year were Courtland Sutton and Zay Flowers.

00:54:51
Speaker 2: Okay, I think that people would look back.

00:54:53
Speaker 1: On the season and say, oh, like, they weren't that bad of picks, you know, they were whatever. But that's kind of the point too, is that, like the reason I had them as avoids is because I didn't see the best ceiling in the world for them, and I think we've kind of seen that, you know, with Zay Flowers, it's a touchdown ceiling with Courtland Sutton. It's this roller coaster that you go through every year with him, right, But again, they get the production at the end of the year and it's fine enough, and people can live with that because they like to feel that comfortability.

00:55:26
Speaker 2: But in my opinion, fantasy football.

00:55:27
Speaker 1: Is one with the big league winners, the outliers, the guys who are giving you those thirty point performances, as opposed to the very stable players who you think, or at least the players who you think are stable when they're actually not nearly as stable as you generally think.

00:55:41
Speaker 4: And those players you mentioned, Flowers and Sutton, I mean, at least with Sutton, I do think the Broncos finally figured out he's their number one receiver. Yeah, right, right, and he should get ten targets.

00:55:52
Speaker 2: To be clear, I'm not taking a worn l with those guys them as examples.

00:55:56
Speaker 4: Yeah, but you know, but the problem with the variant s guys from week to week is it can tie your brain and not trying to figure out is there a pattern, is there some sort of tell or skeleton key? But you know, it's it's fun in some ways, it's just a microcosm of life where I'm fifty JJ. I like saying that. I love saying I'm fifty, but you know, the closest to the closest approximation I can give people to like what at fifty years old? What do I think the meaning of life is? It's to make some choices, see how they turn out, see if you learn something and make some more choices. Isn't that fantasy football?

00:56:34
Speaker 1: Since we're talking about rookies, do you have any any twenty twenty six guys?

00:56:37
Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, I want.

00:56:38
Speaker 1: I want to hear about some of your favorite twenty twenty six yets. They could be flying under the radar.

00:56:42
Speaker 4: Yes. And by the way, just to your point, since I know you know there was a question, you're posibly going to talk about it, like, what were like the lessons learned?

00:56:49
Speaker 2: Yes, I think.

00:56:50
Speaker 4: I think that the experience of fantasy football this year was so varied and so chaotic that there are no lessons learned. Everyone's lessons learns are going to different, which is great because it means everyone's going to like author their own team and go through their draft their own way instead of finding these structural Oh, this is a good year to take this position later because everyone's overreacting to something that happened last year. Everybody had their own individual journey this year, rookies for next year, second year players. Cam Ward's really interesting. Okay, He's played a lot better than his stats.

00:57:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, every week's I mean, well, the stats have caught up a little bit last a little bit.

00:57:24
Speaker 4: But everybody, you know, there are some players that were traded away from the Titans, and there are other players talking player analysts and they're all saying, like cam Ward looks like he's going to be a player at running back. I just say, just put a pin in Jordan James because because we have seen that this running back class, the hype was actually work real, Like they're you know, Ja, Cory Krossky Merritt hopefully next year, Briard Smith, that's another one, Kyle Andung guy. Like when we saw running backs fall even Devin Neil, we saw running backs fall to the second half of the second day, and we said, based on what we watched or based on something like your wonderful model, these guys are good NFL prospects. And there they are in the sixth or seventh round, and people are gonna point and say, but the chances of a seventh round pick hitting or this percent, but this wasn't that kind of class. Jordan James was a fifth round pick and he was Kyle Shanahan's pick. Now, now, Shannan has famously misfired on some guys like Isaac Grendo, Joe Williams, you know, Trey Sermon. But Jordan James is different. Jordan James doesn't have any Jordan James is like Mononga. He doesn't have gaudy measurables. He's more like Bucky Irvin, another organ back, where it's just the way he plays the game. And we know that in Shanahan's run scheme, it's the decision making. It's the vision that is way more important than the tools. That's why I was really shock playing with Isaac Greendo, and I think you can I just heard something very recently. I think what James had like a knee and then like a finger or hand or something. But Kyle Shanahan said something about him in the last week or two that was like, oh no, no, no, we haven't forgot about James. He just hasn't had a chance. And I'm thinking next year he's probably the backup to Christian McCaffrey when we're when we're all like, ol McCaffrey's going to stay healthy, right, yeah.

00:59:09
Speaker 2: Right, wide receiver.

00:59:11
Speaker 4: I want to emphasize Kyle Williams because we know Drake May is good, it's flashed, and Kyle Williams in the small opportunity he's got, looks like a game breaker. He looks like he could be a sort of Jamison Williams light in this offense. And speaking of James Willims, Isaac Teslaw, let's not forget about him. He wasn't supposed to be nearly this good right yet yet. Now I don't know when the opportunity's going to come for him. And then at tight end, I'm going position by position. Terrence Ferguson is really fascinating.

00:59:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're we're recording this before Thursday Night Football, but I'm very interested to see how and this will release after Thursday Night Football, so you guys are already have this answer, but I'm very interested to see how they deploy Ferguson, in particular with DeVante Adams out, because if there's a one to one, you know, Kobe Parkinson's a fine play in my opinion, but like, if there's a one to one of what DeVante Adams brings to the table in that offense, it's Terence Ferguson.

01:00:03
Speaker 2: Like that's like he's he's built like that, and he's he's he's the prototypical Darren Waller type pass catching tight end. Yeah, that can that can make those crazy, crazy plays. I love that, call them the model. Really like Terrence Ferguson too.

01:00:16
Speaker 4: And I'm gonna and I'll add a couple more things to Terrence Ferguson. Okay, number one. And I didn't even know this until I was joking, but sure enough, like four years ago, Sean McVay actually did say, like, I really like Arthur Smith. I really like what Arthur Smith's doing. I'm watching what Arthur Smith's doing and I'm learning from it. Because now, all of a sudden, what is Sean McVay enamored with three tight ends? And the other thing here is that after they traded down, they were trying to trade up. Some people think it's Colson Love and some people think it's Sarah McMillan. They were trying to trade up with the Panthers, and then when they didn't, they were unsuccessful they traded down and James Gladstone he's now the GM for the Jacks. Was he There's a really cool piece on the Athletic where Mike Silver was given just complete access to the Jags draft room, like he was allowed to just report everything. You know, he was he was just he gave you like a fly on the wall perspective. And when and Gladstone comes out of the Rams organization, and when the Rams were on the clock, he asked Gladstone like, who the Rams gonna take here? He's a Terrence Ferguson. Yeah, I mean, just it's a pick I'm getting. I'm getting some chills as I'm recounting this because it feels like one of those preordained kind of things that Sean McVay is is going to evolve And can can a tight end be a primary target and Sean McVay offense? I think we're going to find out the answer. Yes.

01:01:36
Speaker 1: Well, the sick part about Sean McVay is that even when he has these three tight ends on the field, he'll still run eleven personnel with them and do this and line them as up.

01:01:45
Speaker 4: Is because you but you know why, you know why, because he learned when he lost the Super Bowl to Bill Belichick. First of all, Belichick Belichick to two things in that game. One was he would show Jared Goff one defense when the speaker was still open up to fifteen seconds, and then after the fifteen seconds was cut off, Belichick would switch it up and Goff with smoke would come out of his ears. The other thing was the Rams defense was also Aaron Donald right pit football. Aaron Donald was ball. I mean, he's Aaron Donald. This defense was great. And in the last drive Josh McDaniels, they did twenty two personnel, two tight ends and two running backs, but they spread the field and the Rams and they hadn't practiced that all year and it was at the end of the game and it was their touchdown drive. So trust your players do things. Coaches that trust their players to do things they've never shown they can do before, but in the game situation they know. So Sean McVay learned him because remember if that was the game that before the game, Ivey goes out to center to centerfield to midfield and he's like telling Belichick like, oh my god, you're so amazing, and observers we saw that after the fact Oh, he lost the game right there. They already lost the Super Bowl. But Sean McVay realized, like, I have to be like him, not admire him, right, I have to be as smart as him.

01:03:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it goes back to what you were saying earlier about football being the game that we love because you can be so creative within the boundaries of those rules, and that that's exactly what McVeigh has brought to the table. I want to talk about really quick some of these. We got to talk a little bit about the remaining playoffs. Yeah. Is there any player in fantasy who has helped get us or helped us get here to the Semis that you think could maybe not.

01:03:36
Speaker 2: Do so great over the next couple of weeks.

01:03:38
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I'm worried about Josh Jacobs man. I mean, I'm not putting him on my bench, but he's told us. You know, I think it was the game against the Giants that he took a hit on the turf on the knee and his knee stiffened up, and he didn't play the next week, not because of pain, but because he had gotten the range of motion.

01:04:01
Speaker 2: And then on.

01:04:02
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving he had to leave to have the knee checked out, and they said against Chicago the knee was not responding well by the end of the game. That put last week's game in question. Then he actually hurt his knee again last week. He had the forty yard touchdown run and looked good. But JJ, man, I mean I would be I would be more surprised if he made it through the next two games without incident than if he had to leave, because he's he's and he and you know, kudos to Josh Jacobs, Like may we all have the indefeagable spirit of Josh Jacobs because he said something I don't remember exactly how he put it, JJ, but he said, it's worse it hurts more to watch a game from the sidelines than it does to play. Hurt right, And I love that spirit. And and I want to tell everybody I'm looking in the camera as I say this, like when you're setting your lineups this week, I want you to really think about it, Like you're in the locker room, You're looking at these players, and you thinking like it is my season. Who are we trusting?

01:05:03
Speaker 2: Who are we.

01:05:04
Speaker 4: Trusting with the season on the line, And I want to trust a guy like Josh Jacobs because he has that spirit. But I know that means that he's going to push his body to the limit in a way that you know, it's I just don't he he doesn't. I mean even this week, I'm not sure he's going to play. This week, he's already saying like, ugh, he's not feeling great.

01:05:24
Speaker 1: I mean, his snap shares have not been strong, you know, like like even even when he's been active, they're still they're still using plenty of Emmanuel Wilson. And I think even from Green Bay's perspective, this is such a huge it's a big game for them, obviously against Chicago, and so I think that, like, you know, you always had to think and have the mentality of like, Okay, how big is the game?

01:05:42
Speaker 2: Can they push it? Will they push it?

01:05:43
Speaker 1: This is why when people ask about like players getting shut down at the end of the year, I always say, players want to play, They want to be on the field. Look at what Joe Burrow is doing right now, you know, like he just wants to play. But if they are ninety percent in terms of health and they don't have a meaningful game, then they might sit out. Versus if they were ninety percent or even eighty percent playing in a meaningful game, right, and so because this is meaningful, he's going to probably push it, I would imagine to some degree. But Emmanuel Wilson has not looked bad in relief, you know, like they have They have players, even even a Waldman.

01:06:16
Speaker 2: Favorite in Chris Brooks.

01:06:17
Speaker 1: You know, he's he's been He's been a solid enough player for them back there too. But yeah, I would agree that's I'm a little bit nervous about about Jacobs as well. Are there any under the radar league winners the next couple of weeks, like guys that just haven't been very productive that could be on the waiver wire?

01:06:33
Speaker 4: And you know, I keep mentioning him. I'm getting drunk on audric estimate, getting it's New Orleans. It's New Orleans, right, I'm getting drunk on audric estimate. The Jets and the Titans, The Jets and the Titans. And this gets to philosophical things about fantasy football. What is the most important factor when you're making a lineup decision. Well, it should be on a case by case basis, because matchup is important. But matchups are only important at the extreme ends. But the Jets and The Titans are the extreme end of just poor defenses, and the Saints they don't care. Normally at this time of year, when teams are four and ten, we're like, well they're just mailing it in. No, no, no, no, they're building something here. Remember we consider Kellen Moore an offensive genius. Right, look at the Eagles offense last year compared to this year. Right, Tyler shuck again, we joked, oh, give every quarterback seven years in college. Well maybe, actually, these new and IL rules may allow quarterbacks to develop and be more ready, right, you know what I mean. It's like the first time you ask a girl out on a date, Like, I mean, it might go really poorly, but if you're more mature, it might might go a lot better. You know, the offensive line is good for the Saints, and they're not playing like a team playing out the string.

01:07:54
Speaker 2: They're playing. I mean, they beat the Bucks.

01:07:58
Speaker 4: And the Panthers on the road. They're the best team in the division right now. The Jets just got their division defensive coordinator fired. Yeah, you know, the Titans have the Trador. Sanders looked like he might be an NFL quarterback against the Titans. Yeah, yeah, So this is one of those things where and it might be Evan Hall, but.

01:08:17
Speaker 1: I was gonna ask about that, did you see it being a bit a big I've had a.

01:08:21
Speaker 2: Really hard time. This is why why I now want to dig into this a little bit more.

01:08:25
Speaker 1: But I've had a hard time because their deployment last week in a small sample was kind of odd because Evan Hall was a good I don't remember if you remember, like oh Northwestern, Yeah, like good, good pass catching prodect athlete.

01:08:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's like what he did.

01:08:39
Speaker 1: And then and then Odrick Estimate was just the bruiser in college, Like he didn't do that much through the air. He was never you would never look at him and say that's that's our pass catching back. But then last week and how they played that when they were in that negative and trailing game, script Estimate was that guy. He was the two minute back and and Evan Hall was more of the early down back. And so I'm I'm really like, I've had such a hard time like trying to because it seems like everyone's going down the Estimate route, and I've just had this really hard time because I'm I'm I overthink everything of of just like which one of these guys, is or or is it going to just be a true fifty to fifty and you just prefer estimate because you like the talent profile a little.

01:09:17
Speaker 4: Bit more, or just the estimate made plays to help them win last year. Yeah, and you saw the burst and whether it's estimate or hall the other thing the reason why.

01:09:28
Speaker 2: And you know, we could bring up.

01:09:29
Speaker 4: The name Jair Jordan here too, although you know Nick Chubbs back at practice, we'll maybe probably who knows what he marks the rookie who gets veteran rest on a Wednesday, by the way, have you?

01:09:40
Speaker 2: I mean, this is what he marks?

01:09:42
Speaker 1: Is the is the Deontay Johnson of running backs, of of just getting like he he is in the blue tent every night.

01:09:49
Speaker 4: He has a magazine that he goes in there and like reads a new article every time he goes back to the tent.

01:09:53
Speaker 2: I can finish that really him, him and.

01:09:55
Speaker 1: Marshawn Lloyd both coming from from usc like that, and then just just constantly constantly in.

01:10:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, sorry, I mean no, no, So I think that you also have the reason this happens.

01:10:07
Speaker 4: You know, if you want to go deep, I mean, people will remember players like Dee Brown. There's been so many players over the years in Week sixteen, Week seventeen, it's because they're fresh. Yeah, it's because they're fresh and they're playing defenses they're beat up.

01:10:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, So so.

01:10:20
Speaker 4: That's I mean, and I just think, I mean, Evan Hall did get the two red zone opportunities over Estimate, but Estima is the more classic. Like you said, this is kind of backwards. Hall was more of the versatile back and Estimate was more the between the tackles Pounder. I just know that the Saints' offense is a wave that I want to catch right now.

01:10:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, it's fair. I just wanted to, like, I don't I genuinely don't know. Yeah, with the running backs, just because of what we saw last week, and I you know, I agree, Like you know, you would think that Estimate would be rewarded based on how he kind of performed in that in that small sample. But it's it's just, you know, this is this is the downside of running back play, whereas like a Michael I don't know if you saw that that's safer. Yeah, the Ganning quote where he was like, yeah, I really trust him and you can carry a big workload and he can do it, so I'm like, yeah, I mean, I'm gonna ride Michael Carter, and I would assume that you would be riding Michael Carter over one of the Saints back.

01:11:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got I've got Carter ahead of Estimate.

01:11:14
Speaker 4: But for instance, I'm agonizing over like Estime versus Can Walker the third as a flex, right, you know.

01:11:21
Speaker 1: Some of those like like guys who just are not giving us anything at the moment, right, yeah, right, yeah.

01:11:27
Speaker 4: I have this nagging feeling that after like the first two or three drives of the Saints Jets game, we're gonna say, yeah, like, why were we talking ourselves out of playing Estimate?

01:11:38
Speaker 2: Yeah?

01:11:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's fair, It's fair, all right, Before I let you go, I've been doing this with every perspective. Guest Bold prediction for Week sixteen. Let's hear it, Jalen Coker, baby jcob Oh.

01:11:49
Speaker 2: I love it. You have him in Apex, don't you.

01:11:51
Speaker 4: I think you have the idea I do, and my wide receivers are so bad I have to play him. But there's another league. Listen to this, JJ, There's another league where you can play up to five wide receivers. I'm playing in a toilet Bowl. Okay, every dynasty league should have to to two public service announcements because chances are, if you're into JJ stuff, you're into my stuff. You're listening to fantasy football, watching fantasy football. This league. If you have a dynasty league, it should have a toilet bowl and the and the prize should be either the number one overall pick or an extra first round pick at the end of the first round. Oh, I like to keep everybody interested.

01:12:24
Speaker 2: And and then and then you combine that with no trade deadline. Yeah, you're you're not. You're a no no trade dead line is so good. And when you haven't always been.

01:12:34
Speaker 1: I've always been a right before the playoff trade deadline guy.

01:12:37
Speaker 2: But give me, give me, give me the argument for no trade that.

01:12:39
Speaker 4: Well, it's it's wonderful chaos, it's wonder it's wonderful though. I mean, it gives you something. Even if you're like a last place team. You know, you can look at people's starting lineups and rosters. You know what if they just lost Patrick Mahomes and you've been sitting here, you know, with c. J. Stroud on your bench wondering am I ever gonna be able to trade in you know, but then when you have the toilet Bowl, you also have the incentive. Maybe I want to keep my good players so I can get that number one pick or that extra for pick.

01:13:08
Speaker 2: So it gives you, it gives you. But listen to this. I have five I have I can play five wide receivers.

01:13:14
Speaker 4: My first four basically set Mike Evans and Kuka Nakua, Zay Flowers and Wandale Robinson. It's the PPR, It's Jackson Dark and then my last choice is down to Justin Jefferson or Jalen Cocher. And and man like, I can't think of a reason to play Justin Jefferson over Jayleen Cocher. We saw what Kyle Pitts did against Tampa last week, and Matt Walbman, I'm gonna mention. I have to mention him like five times a show. Matt Waldman has been excellent chroniclingness. The one guy who can roast man coverage right now and the Panthers offense is Jalen Coger, not ted ronmcmillan. Jalen Cocher. And you've seen teams really put the clamsaw McMillan. And you've seen Cocher come through through now two games in a row with massive plays. I mean, just Bryce Young knows if I trust that guy, good things happen. If this turns into a shootout, Jalen Cocher could be the key to winning this week.

01:14:15
Speaker 2: I love it.

01:14:15
Speaker 1: I mean, he was a sleeper on My Sleeper Show this week, he was an ad on the fifteen Transaction Show.

01:14:20
Speaker 2: I'm starting him in over. I mean, mine's a little bit easier.

01:14:23
Speaker 1: I'm starting him over Steph on Diggs just because Diggs is just not running at all right now. But yeah, man, that's a that's a that's a very good call. I would I've got a best ball team that that need desperately needs that game to shoot out desperately because it's got Bryce Young at quarterback actually as Tedoro McMillan as a wide out and then a Bucky Irving bringback. But I would love for that game to shoot out in some way it would be It would be great.

01:14:49
Speaker 2: But man, this was great as always.

01:14:50
Speaker 1: I love your You know, you're one of my my favorites in the space to sit down and talk.

01:14:54
Speaker 2: To, partially because we approach this.

01:14:57
Speaker 1: In different ways, and I think it's just really interesting to to get your viewpoint on this stuff that because I don't think of things the same way that you do, and and probably vice versa, and so you know, it's just it's it's always a pleasure to talk to you.

01:15:09
Speaker 2: You're an OG. You are the OG on perspectives too, So it's great to bring you back. Thank you so much for coming. Let everyone know where they can find you and what you're doing.

01:15:17
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, first of all, you can find me down in New Orleans and and JJ, you know, come come on down, come on down to New Orleans.

01:15:25
Speaker 2: Everyone needs more New Orleans in their life. I love New Orleans.

01:15:27
Speaker 4: I want to be the ambassador for everybody to New Orleans because I want to show them why I love the city so much. And also you need New Orleans in your life. But you know, football guys, we just we're always there, Like you talked about at the beginning of the show, like we're tilting. I mean we are, we are of the people that we are serving and that and if and if we lose that then then what does it matter anyway? So yeah, I mean, just we're obsessing about all this and I'll be since I mentioned it, playoff fantasy football be putting my playoff. Feotball ranks out a few days after Week eighteen is every usually by Tuesday. So this is a great year to dabble and that it's fun. You can score it by hand, you can do it among your friends over lunch. You can do your draft at lunch. Back to the roots of fantasy football and our love of this game and sharing it with our friends. And I'm just I was happy to be back. You know, this is a great joy also to see how far you've come in your career and so many other people. Y'all are growing up into great thought leaders and personalities, and I'm in awesometimes at how this thing has just kind of sprung up and we've found our people, and then in turn, we found our people and the people that we serve and all of you. You know, if you're listening to the show, if you're part of JJ's tribe, you're doing good.

01:16:52
Speaker 2: Thank you.

01:16:52
Speaker 1: I really appreciate that. Appreciate everyone for tuning in. As always, Bloom, you're the man, you know. Hopefully we get to do this again soon, but otherwise, everyone, good luck in your semi final and as always, thanks for tuning in.