466: 15 Transactions for Week 16

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JAYJ Zachertha. Shake Zacherson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at fandlin at number fire dot com and this episode four hundred and sixty six of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. Championship week is always bittersweet. I love the football season. I love the ups and downs, the highs that we get when we win fantasy matchups at the last second, even the tilts. I love it all. I love everything about fantasy football. But doing this stuff each week and analyzing the game, I couldn't do it all year round. It's exhausting. So I'm sad to see the fantasy season go, but I'm also happy that I'm gonna be able to get normal sleep again. For this final fifteen transaction show, in order for you guys to get the most out of it, I mostly just have ads that you can make off the waiver wire this week. It's pretty straightforward. Hopefully this show has helped you throughout the season, though, I know it's something that I put a lot of effort into and I hope that shows. I appreciate all of you for listening, providing feedback and going along this fifteen transactions journey with me each and every week. Now, let's win a fantasy title. But before digging into the transactions this week, did you know that basketball is back and this season, NBA Hall of Famer Charles Barkley has joined the FanDuel team. Jolly Old Saint Chuck is giving away over thirty million dollars in gifts to all FanDuel customers, including free fantasy entries, freesite credit, risk free bets, and Charles Barkley odds boos from the opening tip to the final buzzer. There are so many ways to bet on Fandel's sportsbook this NBA season, and if you sign up today, Fandel will let you place your first bet risk free. 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Usually, whenever I talk about guys to add off the waiver wire, they're rostered in way fewer leagues than that. But this is a different week. I have to be a little bit looser with the restrictions in week sixteen because I'm giving you guys a lot of ads this week. But yes, you should be adding Le'Veon bell. Clyde Edwards, a layer got hurt in that game against the Saints. He has both hip and ankle injuries. Now that's gonna make Le'Veon Bell the one in this Chiefs backfield. And this week they get the Falcons. Now, the Falcons aren't that good of a matchup on paper. They actually rank is the third toughest matchup against running backs when looking at adjusted Fantasy points allowed. But the Chiefs have almost a thirty two point implied team total according to Fandels Sportsbook. So if they're gonna put up that many points, Le'Veon Bell is probably gonna have something to do with it. He's gonna have some production. Like Leonard Fournette in Week fifteen, there should be scoring opportunities for Le'Veon Bell add Tony Pollard. So again there's a chance that Tony Pollard is not available in your league. He's out there in about fifty five percent of Yahoo leagues right now, which honestly is a lot more than I expected given Ezekiel Elliott didn't play this past week. But if you watch football in week fifteen, you saw what Tony Pollard did. He finished his day against San Francisco with thirty one point two PPR points. That was the best performance at running back this week, he had seventy five percent of Dallas's running back rushes and he had a twenty seven point three three percent target share. That target share for Tony Pollard in this game was higher than Ezekiel Elliott's season high, which was twenty one point two percent. Now, I don't know if Elliott is going to play this week, since he was somewhat of a surprise and active, I would lean that Elliott's going to play, But regardless, you should be prepared add Tony Pollard. If Zeke does go, maybe you don't play Pollard, But if he doesn't, then you have a strong option add divine a Zigbo. So James Robinson hurt his ankle in Sunday's game against the Ravens, and it feels like no one's talking about it. It's not being reported really anywhere. But if he misses Week sixteen, then you're probably looking at Divine a Zigbo being the early down guy for Jacksonville. And then there's a chance that daraa Goombalwalle is the guy who's gonna catch passes out of the backfield. So this is not an ideal scenario whatsoever, don't get me wrong. And they play the Bears. So to me, you're adding divine a zigbo. I hope you don't have to start him, but he could be like an RB three this week. Add Chad Hanson. So the Texas have now played three games without Will Fulder. In those three games, Chad Hanson has seen target chairs of eighteen point nine percent, twenty five point nine percent, and seven point nine percent. He's finished as a top thirty wide receiver in every single contest. Now, I will say it's a little bit discouraging that he only had a seven point nine percent target chare in Week fifteen, but that's why we look at the peripherals because he still had a ninety one percent snap rate and according to Pro Football Focus, he ran the second most routes at wide receiver for Houston. In Week sixteen. He gets a decent matchup against Cincinnati. So I do think that Chad Hanson should be added. Drop Christian Kirk. Now I'm giving you two drop recommendations on today's show, so you have an idea of how I look at guys to drop heading into Championship week. Because you don't want to drop players who might be able to produce for your opponent. I don't think Christian Kirk is that guy. At least predictably. Kyler Murray had four hundred and six passing yards on Sunday, Christian Kirk had thirty three of them. He hasn't finished higher than wide receiver forty eight and weekly scoring since Week nine, and his highest single game target shair over his last three contests is twelve and a half percent. You can't trust that. You cannot trust this production. That's why you can drop Christian Kirk. Add Jalen Hurts. This is the third straight week that I'm talking about adding Jalen Hurts on this show, but he's still somehow rostered in fewer than forty percent of Yahoo leagues. You need to add Jalen Hurts. If you're sitting here listening to this for the third time in three weeks and he's still on your waiver wire, what are you doing? Add Jalen Hurts and his two starts for the Eagles. He's dropped nineteen point three and thirty seven point eight Fantasy points. He's run the ball twenty nine times for one hundred and sixty nine yards in a touchdown, and the great thing that we saw on Sunday is that he brought it together through the air too. He had three hundred and thirty eight passing yards in three touchdowns. Jalen Hurts is the real deal and in a game against Dallas this week in a plus matchup, he could win you a fantasy title. Add Savon Achmed. So there was no Miles Gaskin for the Dolphins on Sunday because he had tested positive for COVID nineteen last week. That allowed Savon Achmed to work as the lead back in the backfield against New England. He carried the ball twenty three times, he had one hundred and twenty two yards in a score, and he also had a twelve percent target share. So at the time of this recording, I don't know if Gaskin is going to play or not this week. That's the case for a lot of these running backs, but you should still plan ahead because the Dolphins get the Raiders, and the Raiders have allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points to running backs this year. Add Sony Michelle. So. Another running back who I don't know his status of right now at the time of this recording is Damian Harris. He missed Week fifteen and that allowed Sony Michelle to see some work in that backfield. He carried the ball ten times, he had seventy four yards on the ground. According to number fires expected points model, he had a fifty percent success. That's a pretty strong number. So if Harris misses this week, I do think that Sony Michelle is sort of an RB three drop Jerry Judy. This is another example of a player who's fairly highly rostered right now who you can drop. And the logic here is similar to the logic with Christian Kirk. Is Jerry Judy going to help your opponent predictably? Probably not, because he hasn't gotten it done. He's finished no better than wide receiver fifty seven and weekly scoring over his last five games. Even though the matchup against the Chargers isn't bad on paper, I don't know how anyone can trust Jerry Judy this week. Add Russell Gage. So Russell Gage has now seen a target share per game of twenty one point four percent over the last three weeks, and he's averaged a solid seventeen point two PPR points per game. Now during these three games, he's scored no fewer than fifteen points and no more than nineteen points. He's been very, very consistent. Julio Jones is banged up in the Falcons. Like I talked about earlier, they get the Chiefs this week. That should be a negative game script because they're ten point underdogs. According to Fandals Sportsbook. That means a lot of passing, and that means a nice high floor for Russell Gage. Add Baker Mayfield. Over the last four weeks, only Ryan Tannehill is averaging more fantasy points per game at quarterback than Baker Mayfield. Mayfield's averaging almost twenty five points per game. Now, I will say it's gonna be tough for Mayfield to sustain these numbers. He has a seven point one percent touchdown rate over this time. But even still, he gets the Jets this week. Yes, I know New York played fine against LA this past week, but across the larger sample, they've been beat by fantasy quarterbacks. Even when you consider what they did in Week fifteen, the Jets have allowed the seventh most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. That makes Baker Mayfield a viable streamer. Add to a tongue of Ioloa, you could also go to Tua if you want to. He's rostered in fewer leagues than Mayfield is, and he gets a decent matchup against the Raiders. Las Vegas now ranks in the bottom half of the league and adjusted points a lot of quarterbacks, and they're coming off a game where they're banged up. Defense was horrible against Justin Herbert. The Dolphins have a decent twenty five point implied team total. I think two works this week as a streamer, and by the way, he's been averaging almost twenty one fantasy points per game over his last three contests. Add the Arizona Cardinals defense. I think the best traditional streaming defense this week has to be Arizona. They're out there in about two thirds of leagues and they're facing San Francisco. That San Francisco offense has given up a top ten defensive performance in six of their last seven games. Over the last two weeks, Washington and Dallas have been the top defense in fantasy football against San Francisco. The Cardinals are at home. They're three and a half point favorites. I like them a lot. Add the Washington football team defense, so Washington works this week too. They're rostered in a similar number of leagues as the Cardinals are and they're gonna face the Panthers at home here in Week sixteen. So with Washington, we're always intrigued by what that defensive line can do to opposing quarterbacks. Their top ten in pressure rate this season, and only five teams, including the Cardinals that I just talked about, only five teams have more sacks than Washington. Meanwhile, Carolina is a totally average opponent. They're average and sack rate allowed, their average and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. I think all of that Cambine makes Washington a decent defensive streaming option at the Los Angeles Chargers defense. Now, the last defense that you could go to is the Chargers. They're rostered in fewer leagues in both Arizona and Washington, so you should be able to get them, and they face Denver. Quite simply, Denver's the best opponent for fantasy defenses. They've been the friendliest when looking adjusted Fantasy points allowed. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Drew Lock is a gunslinger. He likes throwing the ball down the field. He'll turn the ball over, he'll take sacks, but that's what you get with Drew Lock. And if you look over at fandals sportsbook. This game has a forty nine point over under and the Chargers three point favorites. I don't love the Chargers. I would much rather play Arizona or Washington, but I do think that they work the sixteen transaction this week that you can't get my weekly fifteen transactions. Call him over on number fire dot com is to hold Tyler Lockett. So I've been talking about Tyler Lockett on this show a lot over the last two or three weeks because he hasn't been very good in fantasy football. He went absolutely nuts back in Week seven against Arizona. He scored fifty three PPR points, and from weeks one through seven he was averaging twenty three and a half fantasy points per game. Since that time, that numbers dropped to ten and a half and over his last eight games. So since that Arizona game, he's finished in the top thirty and weekly wide receiver scoring just once. He's been the wide receiver fifty one in points per game. Now here's the thing. I don't think he's a great play this week against the Rams. If you can bench him, I would be benching him. But I don't know if I would just drop him. Unlike a Christian Kirker, a Jerry Judy, they're serious, serious upside with Tyler Lockett. There's a chance. There's always a chance that Lockett goes off, that he blows up, and if that happens, your opponent might benefit from that. If your opponent is a big underdog, they can add Tyler Lockett if you drop him, and they can go for that ceiling. So this is one of those scenarios where I don't really want to play Tyler Lockett this week, but I don't want my opponent to have Tyler Lockett because we've seen that ceiling. So for these kinds of players, just hold them. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and never forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. As you can see, I drop this show on Monday, I'm gonna do my best to get a show out on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, so I will talk to you tomorrow