723: Mailbag 12/9/22

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha JJ Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zach or Eson in this episode seven hundred and twenty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Don't forget that the week fourteen NFL Sunday Million is officially live on Fandel. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using FanDuel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of one point two million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool two hundred thousand dollars first place prize, all for just five dollars. Sunday's approaching quickly, so had to Fandel and submit your lineups today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandel dot com or download the Fandel app for more details. Let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from LP. It says, hey, JJ, thanks for all the content. Curious how the quarterback change in San Francisco affects your thoughts on that offense? Anyone in San Francisco you're completely writing off, completely writing off. Probably not. We've seen backup quarterbacks in this system, maybe not be great, but they've at least been able to maintain some production for their weapons. When Nick Mullens started from week eight to week fifteen and twenty twenty, he averaged two hundred and sixty three yards per game. This isn't me saying that Mullens was a great quarterback. I'm just focused on fantasy CJ. Bethard in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen averaged like two hundred and fifty yards per game. This San Francisco offense is focused on creating yards after the catch. Jimmy Garoppolo didn't have to throw the ball down the field at a high rate to be effective, and when you have players like Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle and Brandon Ayuk, you really can let them do the work for you. They're some of the best yards after catch players in the league. So naturally, I think Brandon Ayuk could be the player who gets hurt most because he's gonna see more down the field targets than those other guys. And the offense itself is likely not going to be as good, So everyone does get dinged in some way. But this is at least a system where a quarterback out of nowhere can hypothetically step in and be okay as long as they can quickly distribute the ball to their playmakers. Let those guys do what they do best, and I would anticipate that's what we see, a lot of creativity closer to the line of scrimmage easier throws to make. Last week, brock Purty threw at fifteen or more air yards on just thirteen percent of his throws, and that was against a pretty beatable defense. So everyone does get hurt in some way, but probably not as much as they would in a different system. Maybe Brandon Ayuk aside. This question is from twitters from at M A. Williams three to two eight. Do you think a spot should be reserved for a higher scoring team in the playoffs. I'm currently battling for a playoff spot with the second most points scored in my league, all because a few matchups I had this guys had their best games against me. Thanks. Yes, I talk about this each year, but your fantasy league should have a spot in the playoffs for points. Most of my commission leagues, they have five spots for the top five records in the league. The final playoff spot is for the most points scored not currently in the playoffs. You can't play defense in fantasy football. There is absolutely luck in scheduling, so you should want to reward teams who are scoring a lot of points and just flat out getting unlucky. There are other ways to get around this too, like having one opponent each week and then having another opponent against the league median point scored so you have two games a week essentially, or there's an all play format. But if you want to keep the typical head to head schedule in fantasy football, and my opinion, you should have a playoff spot for the most points not in based on record. The last question is from Patreon. It's from josh hot debate between friends. They think it's a good strategy to go Kelsey and then Andrews at the one two turn next year. They think having Andrews in your tight end spot and Kelsey in the flex is a good strategy with the idea of Andrew's acting as tight end one and Kelsey in every week flex because he outscores almost everyone. How can I convince them this is a terrible idea. So in the Late Round Draft Guide, I showed data and I wrote about how the tight end position you either go big or go home. You either get a stud or you just barely care about the position during your draft. There are some instances where I maybe get a middle ish round tight end, like I got some Dallas Goddard this year, but generally speaking, those guys are bad bets. I would not go with an Andrews Kelsey strategy though for a ton of reasons. Is Andrews going to give you an edge over the position more than likely? Yes, But I don't understand why you wouldn't just get Travis Kelcey alone, put him in your tight end spot, have an even better advantage, and then just use another player in your flex like Mark Andrews is a great football pla and he's a great fantasy asset, but he currently ranks thirty ninth in flex points per game this season in PPR formats. Now, I know he's been banged up, but if you're taking him at the one two turn, that means you're projecting that he's going to be a top fifteen player at running back, wide receiver, and tight end, and I would argue that you're projecting them to be even higher because of the supply and demand of those positions. You need more running backs and wide receivers in fantasy football. It's just not a logical thing to do. Now. Kelsey's done that this year, But even last year, when Andrews had probably the best season he's ever going to have in his career, he was thirteenth overall in flex rankings. His literal ninety fifth to one hundred percentile outcome led to what you're expecting him to do at the one to two turn. Tight Ends are technically more valuable when you can flex them because teams hypothetically use more of them in their lineup. When more players at a position are being used, the demand gets higher and the position becomes more valuable. But we know that most people are not flexing tight ends because the real value of having an elite tight end isn't really coming from your flex spot. It's coming from the tight end spot. When your league mats are playing Daniel Bellinger and you have Travis Kelcey, that's where the edge is coming. But the most important reason this is not a good strategy is opportunity cost. You get excited that you have these two elite tight ends. You say to yourself, I'm gonna not only have this huge advantage at tight end, but now my opponents won't have a tight end who can come close to this production because I have two of them. I have Travis Kelcey and Mark Andrews. Okay, but at what cost? When you draft those players early, you're foregoing the opportunity of getting a stud running back or wide receiver. And even though there are busts in the early rounds at those positions each year, the hit rate for running backs and wide receivers in that area of your draft is far far better than what you're gonna get in the third round, the fourth round, the fifth round. So when you get two tight ends, you're hyper focused on this idea of winning the tight end position. I'm not realizing that you just increase the likelihood that you're gonna get destroyed at running back and wide receiver, and those are the positions that are more than likely gonna win your flex spot. Anyway, if you were guaranteed twenty twenty one Mark Andrews and twenty twenty two Travis Kelcey and twenty twenty three. That would be one thing, but you can't guarantee that, So you shouldn't be drafting them both with the idea that one of them would be in your flex. It really really handcuffs the rest of your lineup. This last question is from at Lloyd Rage. It says, who's some great streaming quarterbacks to target for the playoff run weeks fifteen to seventeen? So, first off, I get questions about playoff schedules and whatnot all the time this time of year. Which player off the waiver wire that no one has rostered right now do you think will pop in the playoffs? And Guys, I have to tell you, I'm not withholding information. If I knew, I would absolutely tell you, and I try to tell you that kind of stuff on the fifteen Transaction Show each week. I'm not hiding players who I think are gonna do great in weeks fifteen through seventeen, I promise. With that being said, I don't think there are really quarterbacks right now that you can just find off the waiver wire and just use each week during the playoffs. I do think that you can piece together at Frankenstein, though, since some quarterbacks are available in some leagues not others, I'll do my best to cover a few iterations here. Let's start with Week fifteen Mike White and the Jets. They get the Lions. Detroit is the best opponent for quarterbacks and justin fantasy points allowed right now. Mac Jones and Russell Wilson have good matchups too, but they're just not as reliable. And then Andy Dalton could be in play against the Falcons. Week sixteen Mike White once again as a top ten matchup on paper against the Jags, and both his Week fifteen and sixteen games they're at home, so he could work. Kenny Pickett in Week sixteen faces the Raiders. Now I'm recording this before Vegas Thursday night game, but they've been the second best matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted points allowed this year. So you got Mike White and Kenny Pickett in Week sixteen. In Week seventeen, things are a little bit tougher. If Jared Goff is available. They get the Bears in Detroit, so I like Goff there, and Mike White still has a decent enough matchup in Week seventeen against Seattle. It's just not nearly as attractive as what he's seeing in week fifteen and sixteen. So maybe if there is a quarterback that you could just play throughout the fantasy playoffs, who sitting on your waiver wire right now? It's probably Mike White. But I think Week seventeen is a more wait and see kind of week for quarterback streamers, because what if Desmond Ritter looks really good for the Falcons as their new quarterback they get Arizona in Week seventeen, he could hypothetically be in play. I just can't say that right now because I have no idea if he's good, but that at least should get you going in the right direction. That's question from Patreon. It says, hey, JJ, curious what your thoughts are on George Pickens' rest of season given his lackluster performance in Week thirteen where the peripherals still solid and we shouldn't read too much into the down day or are you likely to sit him until you see a bounce back performance. I still think Pickens is a fine enough play rest of seat. Is he going to be a consistent wide receiver two? Probably not? Does he have upside given he's a down the field threat with a lot of talent. Of course, the Steelers also have a pretty nice schedule rest of season. It's now sixth best and adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Now, bad games can happen, and they're likely going to happen with more volatile wide receivers aka rookies in a mediocre offense being led by another rookie. But his peripherals last week were not great. I mean, he was playing, but he only saw a seven percent target share, which is the reason he was talking about getting more looks in that offense after the game. But I still think he'll be okay as a wide receiver three or so from here on out, with the ability to have spiked weeks. This has question from at Dean zero toll one. I know you say Corey Davis was an AD this week, but who do you prefer out of him and Elijah Moore rest of season? You always say talent always prevails, and as you also said, More ran one fewer route than Davis last week. Shouldn't this me More is a better AD than Davis going forward? Yeah, so I don't say that talent always wins out. Talent generally wins out. You should buy talent in fantasy football. But number one, our evaluation of who's talented is not always right. Number two, our evaluation of talent doesn't necessarily have to match up to what a team thinks. Elijah Moore ranges one fewer route than Corey Davis's past week. Yes, and that's a trend in the right direction. But the Jets also ran the vast majority of their plays while trailing last week, and thirty four of their offensive plays they were trailing by ten or more points. That's going to naturally force more wide receivers onto the field because you're in catchup mode. Davis still ended up playing ten more snaps than More did, while More played seventy percent of his snaps from the slot. In other words, Davis is still playing as the team's number two wide receiver, and they have games upcoming that are likely going to be more neutral than gamescript not necessarily this weekend, but their schedule is not overly different. Since Davis is the two, I'd still won him over Elijah Moore. This is also just a one week thing for More right now too. If you want to stash him, that's totally fine, But I still think Davis is the better player to have. The last question this week is from Patreon is from Zubaz and Blue Cheese. It says, JJ, can you provide some deats on what content you will be dishing to Patreon subscribers after the season ends and February to June. I want to support you year round, so please get me excited, sell and take my money. So yeah, this is a year round thing for me. I don't just stop when the fantasy season ends, although I do plan to take a week or two break from the podcast once the season's over before digging in my typical off season content, so there will be somewhat of a break for me. But what is that off season content. Well, I'm planning on doing the Late Round Prospect Guide once again. That product will likely have a very similar format as last year, where I give a breakdown of my model and then I have profiles for every prospect who's going to the combine. There are a lot of good hits from that guy this past year, so I hope people will want to purchase it again, and then eventually I'll be doing the Late Round Draft Guide again, but that's not until June or the beginning of July. On Patreon, though the Discord that won't be going away. The Discord is connected through the Insider tier on Patreon, so anyone paying ten dollars a month you can get exclusive content, yes, but you can also be part of the Discord community. And it's a great, smart community, I promise you, and I'm in there all the time too. In that discord, I'm imagining we're just going to shift our focus to more prospect stuff and Dynasty stuff once the season ends, and then as far as content deliverables on Patreon, I'll be doing my monthly Dynasty rankings updates for both single quarterback and super Flex leagues, and then the Q and A live streams are going to continue as well. I've been doing two Q and A live streams each week this season, one each Tuesday night for the Waiver Wire, than one on Sunday for Start sick Questions, and honestly, those Q and as, at least the Tuesday one, they sort of turn into more philosophical fing fantasy talk. It's a really fun way to sort of get ideas out there. So those types of Q and a's are going to continue. So yeah, there's plenty of stuff still going on in the off season. Now, while I know people are going to likely drop off as subscribers, I know that's going to happen, and that's natural to happen. I really still hope that people want to stick around or join in on the fun, because having a good grasp on fantasy and on football throughout the off season can really really help you when the season actually starts up again. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bes stearching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and know fit to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. As always remember to check out Lateround dot com. Otherwise, thanks for listening this week, everyone greatly greatly appreciate it. Good luck this week, and I'll talk to you next week.