458: 15 Transactions for Week 14

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J.

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Speaker 2: Zacher reson what's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyaeson, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number fire dot com and this episode four hundred and fifty eight of the Late Round podcast so many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. So just to remind all of you, I know your trade deadlines are past.

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Speaker 2: They're gone.

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Speaker 1: I still do have some buy and sell recommendations this week, but it's not to just say go trade for this player. It's to say, hey, maybe you should have confidence in this guy moving forward, or hey you might want to temper your expectations.

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Speaker 2: Which is two more of these to go. After this week.

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Speaker 1: I'll be focused more on ads and drops moving forward, but for this week, we've got a handful of buys and selles too. Now, before getting into the transactions, I want to let you know that the World Fantasy Football Championship is live on FanDuel, and although this year's final won't take place in person, there's still plenty to be excited about. To earn your chance at fantasy glory, simply enter a world Fantasy Football Championship Qualifier. If you finish in first place, you'll qualify for the WFFC Online Finals and get access to some very special virtual experiences, including virtual meet and greets with NFL legends, cool watch parties with extra prizes and giveaways, and free games to win FANDEL prizes. Time is running out on qualifying, so head to fandle and enter today for more details. Was at fandle dot com, slash WFFC or download the FANDEL app today. Eligibility destrictions apply. Hold Justin Herbert. So Justin Herbert said an awesome rookie season. He's basically been automatic for most of this twenty twenty campaign. He got his first start in Week two, and from that point through Week eleven, he averaged over twenty four points per game, and he dropped below twenty points just once.

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Speaker 2: But over the last two weeks things haven't been as good. Week twelve, Herbert had sixteen point four points, and then on Sunday he was terrible. He had four point four Fantasy points. Now, maybe this is the start of a downward spiral. Maybe defenses have figured out Justin Herbert. But the good news that the Chargers get the Falcons, Raiders, and Broncos through.

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Speaker 1: The end of the fantasy season. None of those teams are scary matchups when looking at adjusted Fantasy points allowed, and Atlanta in particular is the top matchup in the league. So I do think Herbert is going to be very usable still down the stretch by Ryan Tannehill. So again, I know you can't trade for Ryan Tannehill right now. I know your trade deadlines have passed. But Tannehill has been playing really well. He has three straight really strong performances and I think that's gonna continue through the fantasy playoffs. Now. I've alluded to the Tennessee Titans schedule earlier this season when talking about Derrick Henry and Derrick Henry can still win some fantasy leagues this year despite his Week thirteen performance, But that doesn't mean the Tennessee passing attack isn't going to do well. Week fourteen, they get Jacksonville. That's a team that ranks the fifth most most advantageous matchup and adjusted points a lot of quarterbacks, and then in Week fifteen they get the Lions.

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Speaker 2: They're the thirteenth easiest.

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Speaker 1: Tannehill has been up and down this season from a fantasy perspective, but I think he's gonna finish strong, as is this entire Tennessee passing attack.

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Speaker 2: Drop Darius Slayton.

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Speaker 1: So with any recommendation that I give you, guys, of course, it needs league context. If you're in a sixteen team deep league, you probably don't need to drop Darius Slayton. There's probably not a better alternative sitting on your waiver wire. But if you're in a ten team league, or maybe even a twelve team league, you can probably drop him. At this point, he hasn't given us a top twenty performance since Week five against Dallas, and since Sterling Shepard returned, Slayton's seen his target share per game rate go from twenty three point seven percent to twelve point three percent. He's now seen fewer than six percent of the Giants targets over the last two weeks, regardless of the matchup. I don't know how you're going to trust Darius Slayton in the fantasy playoff.

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Speaker 2: Ad keiki Qt.

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Speaker 1: So I talked about keiki Qt on last week's show, and then he exceeded all expectations in Week thirteen. Even though he was an AD, he still did way better than I thought he was gonna do without Will Fuller in that lineup. This past week, QT saw twenty four point three percent of the Texans targets. He caught eight passes, and he had one hundred and forty one yards. But here's the thing that was really good to see. In twenty nineteen, qt's average depth of target was just seven point six. That's according to Pro Football Focus. The year before that, his rookie season, it was four point seven. He had always seen targets closer to the line of scrimmage, but on Sunday it was thirteen point four. Four of his nine targets traveled fifteen or more air yards. If he's going to be used more down the field, he's got a chance to be a legitimate starter for the Fantasy football playoffs. The thing is the Texans schedule isn't ideal. That's not great, but QT should absolutely be rostered, and in deeper leagues you can add Chad Ham. He saw almost nineteen percent of Houston's targets and he was the number three pass catcher on that team by the Cleveland Browns defense, so the Browns are still rostered. In just thirty eight percent of Yahoo leagues. You guys might remember about a month ago when I talked about adding the Browns defense because not only was their immediate schedule good, not only were they a streamer that week, but their playoff schedule was good too. In weeks fourteen through sixteen, they get the Ravens, Jets, and the Giants. Now, you might not want to play them against the Ravens this week, I get it, But against the Jets and the Giants they're a great play. Both of those teams are top ten matchups for opposing defenses when looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed.

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Speaker 2: So if the.

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Speaker 1: Browns are on your waiver wire, you can add them. And if you have the Browns on your roster, good for you. Add Ty Johnson. Frank Gore left the Jets game against the Raiders on Sunday after just one carry because he got a concussion, and that opened things up a whole lot for Ty Johnson. He had one percent of the team's running back rushes and a ten percent target chair. He also saw seven of a possible eight running back rushes in the red zone, and he had four or five rushes of the goal line. So after going for over one hundred yards, he might have bought himself some playing time even if Frank Gore comes back. Sell Cam Newton. Honestly, it's just really tough to feel confident in Cam Newton entering the fantasy playoffs. That's what this is all about. He's coming off a top ten performance in Week thirteen. He scored some fantasy points, but he's also now had back to back games without reaching one hundred yards passing. He's just getting by on these rushing touchdowns, and he's doing that a lot. He's finding the end zone on the ground a lot. He has eleven rushing touchdowns this year. But that also makes him a really volatile play in games where Newton's not found the end zone on the ground. He's ranked as a QB twenty eight, thirty six, fourteen, and thirty one in weekly scoring. That can absolutely torpedo your week and over the next two weeks. He's got the Rams and the Dolphins. Those are two teams at rank in the top half of the league and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks. The Rams especially are a tough matchup by the Detroit Lions passing attack. So the Lions played their first game this season without Matt Patricia and they looked better and more competent offensively, they at least looked more fun because they got back to their twenty nineteen ways when Matthew Stafford was pacing for his best season of his career. Let's flash back to last season. That was Daryl Bevill's first season as Detroit's offensive coordinator. Stafford threw at fifteen or more air yards last year on twenty six point one percent of his attempts. That was the highest mark among relevant quarterbacks. So far in twenty twenty, we haven't seen that from Stafford. Going into Sunday's game against the Bears, his deep ball rate was just fifteen point two percent, so basically eleven percentage points lower than what he saw last year. But get this, on Sunday, with Bevil now as interim head coach, Stafford chucked it deep on thirty one percent of his throws. That was a season high.

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Speaker 2: Now, maybe this is all just a coincidence because the Lions weren't a negative game script.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they liked the matchup and they just went for it. They just threw it deep. Or maybe this is the result of a culture change. The Lions just went from a head coach who wanted a more conservative approach to one who has a history of throwing the ball deep, and in situations like this, when there's a narrative that does actually make sense, I'm okay with buying into that narrative a little bit. I'm okay with buying into the fact that we might see down the stretch here this Detroit Lions offense look more like the twenty nineteen version than the twenty twenty version. And there's a decent playoff schedule here too, and Kenny Galladay might come back. All of that combined makes me want to buy into this offense. Ad cole kment. So on last week's Matchup show on the Late Round Pod, I talked about Cole Comtt as being a deeper streamer, and he came through. Now. One of the main reasons I liked Comet was because he was running more routes than Jimmy Graham. Over the last couple of games for Chicago, he had taken over as the tight end one in that offense. This past week he ran twenty routes Jimmy Graham ran fifteen. Two weeks ago, he ran thirty three routes. Jimmy Graham ran seventeen, and then the game before that it was eighteen to fifteen. Cole Comett was the tight end one, and then finally it hit. Finally things came together. This is why we look at peripheral numbers, because on Sunday he had a twenty one point one percent target share in that Chicago offense and he found the end zone. Now, because the tight end position is so bad, he's probably worth an ad off the waiver wire this week. Drop Boston Scott. So I talked a lot about handcuffs on last week's Mailbag show. You guys can go back and listen to that if you missed it last week. One of the things that I mentioned is that you always had to evolve the way that you view handcuffs. How we viewed guy at the beginning of the season is not how we should view that same player right now because things change. Tony Pollard, for instance, he was one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football. Now that's not really the case because Dak Prescott is no longer the quarterback. That offense is not the same, And you could make a similar argument for Boston Scott right now. You know, when Miles Sanders missed time. Earlier this season, Boston Scott was serviceable. He had some good outings, but the Philadelphia offense just keeps getting worse and worse. And look, I'm optimistic about Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 2: I definitely like him under center more than Carson Wentz, but I'm also just trying to be realistic here. The Eagles offensive line has not been very good.

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Speaker 1: And then on Sunday, Jordan Howard entered the picture. They elevated him off the practice squad. He played eighteen percent of their snaps. He had twenty five percent of the team's running back rushes. Corey Clement was not consistently hitting that mark week in and week out. So if Jordan Howard starts doing that, that means if Miles Sanders goes down, Boston's Scott is not the main handcuff or at the very least, what I should say is he's gonna split that backfield with Jordan Howard, and that really lessens the appeal for Boston Scott. That's the main reason you can drop him add Jalen Hurts. So, speaking of Jalen Hurts, like I said, I'm optimistic about what he can bring to this Philadelphia offense. Now, the thing is they get the Saints this week. You probably can't use Jalen Hurts against the Saints because over the second half of the season, this New Orleans defense has been playing a lot better. They haven't allowed a top twelve QB one performance since Week five.

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Speaker 2: But here's the thing. You add Jalen Hurts this week.

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Speaker 1: You see how he does, and then you might be able to play him in weeks fifteen and sixteen because they get Arizona and Dallas. Those are two good matchups for a quarterback. And remember, Jalen Hurts doesn't have to light it up through the air in order to be fantasy relevant because he can run the ball. We love that cheat code in fantasy football. He carried the ball five times for twenty nine yards against the Packers on Sunday, and that was in relief of Carson Wentz. He didn't start that game. Jalen Hurts this week, probably don't play him. See how he does, and then you might have a quarterback starter for weeks fifteen and sixteen. Ad Mitchell Trubisky. Mitch Trubisky kind of works this week because he gets Houston. Houston's secondary is so bad, especially now that Bradley Roby is no longer in that secondary. In two games without Roby this year, Houston's allowed Jake Luton and Philip Rivers to combine for five hundred and eighty nine yards and three touchdowns. And this past Sunday, Rivers was six the cross of the league in both expected points per dropback and success rate. Success rate measures the percentage of dropbacks that result in positive expected points plays. So even though this over under isn't very high, this game environment isn't unbelievable. It's a plus matchup for Trubisky and he's coming off a relatively solid game against Detroit despite what he did at the end of that game.

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Speaker 2: Ad Philip Rivers.

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Speaker 1: So, speaking of Philip Rivers, he continues to not get enough love in the fantasy football world. I bring them up on basically every matchup show. Now he's averaged over eighteen points per game over his last seven games. He's now ranked worse than QB thirteen and weekly scoring just once over this time, and that was against a really good Baltimore defense. Now he gets the Raiders this week and then the Texans again next week. Vegas is a pretty good matchup when looking at adjusted Fantasy points allowed, and the Texans, like I just said, they're struggling against the past. They struggled against Philip Rivers this past Sunday, So I like adding Rivers now and you can realistically play him in weeks fourteen and fifteen. Add the Carolina Panthers defense. So the Panthers had to buy this past week and now they're available in ninety four percent of Yahoo leagues. That definitely makes them a streaming option, as does the fact that they're facing Denver. The Broncos are the second best opponent for fantasy defenses this year when looking adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Defenses have scored three point three more standard points against the Broncos than their season long averages. Now, there is a Corona situation happening with Carolina right now, so definitely monitor that. But if all things look good, they're a streamer this week. Add the Arizona Cardinals defense. Now, one defense that might be a little bit safer than Carolina is Arizona. They're three point favorites and they get the Giants this week. And even though New York got a big win against Seattle in Week thirteen, the Seahawks defense still posted a paras sacks and they had an interception. Now we don't know if Daniel Jones is going to be back, but if he is back, the Giants aren't any worse of a matchup. Across the entire season. They've been the ninth friendliest opponent when looking at ad justin Fantasy points a lot of defenses. The sixteen transaction this week that you can't get in my fifteen transactions column over on number fire dot Com is to add or hold t Y Hilton and Michael Pittman Junior. I was more on Michael Pittman this past week than Hilton because I thought Pittman offered more upside and he had been seeing a more consistent target share in that Holt offense.

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Speaker 2: But Hilton was the guy who blew up. He had a thirty one percent target share against Houston. He bawled out. Pittman was at fourteen point three percent.

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Speaker 1: But Pittman still has about a seventeen percent target share since becoming more involved in this offense. And like I noted, with the Colts, they get the Raiders and the Texans over their next two games. So if either of these wide receivers were on your waiver wire, you should add them if you need wide receiver help. And if you have them, I wouldn't drop them because of this schedule, all right. I was gonna cut it off with that sixteenth transaction, and then the Monday night games happened and Antonio Gibson got hurt. So I'm adding this little audio clip to remind you guys to give Peyton Barber a look off the waiver wire, assuming JD McKissick has already rostered. Barber saw fourteen carries, he scored a touchdown against the Steelers, and he would serve as the early down guy for Washington if Gibson misses time. I had to add this that you guys knew that he's someone to look for off the waiver wire this week as well. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and never forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 2: Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow