287: Week 4 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa Jake zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode two hundred and eighty seven of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. As the season goes on, we get more data, and when we get more data, we make better decisions. We start to leave fewer points on our bench, and we start optimizing our starting lineup better. Basically, things only get easier from a matchups and start sit standpoint as we move forward in a season. So if things have been rough for you to start the year, at least you can feel comfortable knowing that before digging into players I'm higher and lower on versus consensus. This week, I wanted to let you guys know about FanDuel's Gridiron Pick Them contest. Each week, you can go to fandel and pick you think is going to win each matchup. If you pick them all right, you get a share of that week's jackpot. For more info in the Gridiron Pickham, visit fandle dot com or download the FanDuel app today eligibility restrictions apply. Quarterback is a ton of fun This week, I was looking at Fantasy pros to see how other analysts had them ranked, and I'm pretty different on a handful of guys. So it's a fun opportunity to talk about why. Let's start with Matthew Stafford. He's currently ranked as QB fourteen, but I think that he's a top ten option this week. The game against Kansas City in Week four is in Detroits. You're getting a domed environment that's always a plus. FanDuel sportsbook has this game at a fifty three and a half point over under. That's the highest of the week, so it should also be pretty high scoring. And Stafford himself has played a little differently under Daryl Bevell this year. He currently ranked sixth in deep ball Rader percentage of passes that have traveled fifteen or more yards through the air, His rate throwing it deep is over twenty five percent. He's hit a twenty percent deep ball rate just once over the last eight years, so if he's throwing it down the field more often, and this is a game where we could see Detroit three more passes than normal. Then that means there should be more opportunity for big plays for Matthew Stafford against a vulnerable defense. I think that Stafford's a great option this week. Now. Stafford might not be on your waiver wire, so he's not a traditional streamer. Kyle Allen is, though we saw him go nuts against a bad Cardinal secondary last week. And while we shouldn't expect that every time he hits the field, Allan isn't a terrible quarterback. And one thing to keep in mind with him is that he's got great weapons. You've got Dj Moore, Christian McCaffrey, Curtis, Samuel greg Olsen. That at least helps his weekly floor. Now this week, the Panthers are on the road again, this time playing in Houston. So far this season, Houston's secondary ranks is a pretty average one according to number fires Expected Points model, which is adjusted for strength of opponent, and they've now allowed a QB twelve performance to Drew Brees, a QB fifteen one to Gardner Minshew, and a QB thirteen performance to Philip Rivers. So I don't think Kyle Allen is the worst option if you're in a pinch. However, I don't think he's the best traditional streaming option. I think Daniel Joe joneses. But Jones is being properly rated this week as a fringe QB one. If you want a deeper play, you could look at case Keenum. I actually think that I prefer Keenum to Allen this week. But let's look at Keenum's situation. He's been low key not very bad for fantasy purposes to start the year. He was the QB six and Week one against Philly, the QB twelve and Week two against Dallas, and then in Week three face Chicago. Very few quarterbacks are expected to play really well against Chicago. He was a turnover machine, which led to just an eleven point outing, but he still had three hundred and thirty two passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. This one's all about the matchup, though. The Giants have been horrendous against the pass to start the year, allowing the second highest net yards per attempt rate in the league, and they faced Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Jamis Winston. Those aren't bad options per se, but Jamis and Josh Allen had by far their most efficient game so far this season against New York, It's not even that close. Both the Washington and New York defenses have been bad at stopping opposing offenses, and with Danny Dimes Underson for New York, Washington can't play it as conservatively as they probably could have if they were facing Eli Manning. So I like Keenum a lot more than his QB twenty two ranking by the consensus this week, and think that he should be in a tier right below Daniel Jones from a streaming standpoint. Now, on the flip side, I'm not all that into Josh Allen this week, or I should say I'm a little bit worried about Josh Allen. He's been solid in fantasy to start the year, and he has upside each week given what he can do with his legs. But let's be honest for a second. In Week one against the Jets, had he not found the end zone on a rushing score, he would have scored under ten Fantasy points. Last week against Cincinnati, he had just a six point eight yards pert temporarate against a very beatable defense. Cincinnati's allowed the fifth highest yards per attempt in the league this year. So yeah, I'm worried about him going up against a Patriots defense that statistically been the best in the league to start the year. We know their secondary is good even though they've only faced Ben Roethlisberger the pair of Dolphins quarterbacks in Luke Falk. They've also yet to allow a passing touchdown and they've gotten six picks. Again, competition is important in here, but we can't dismiss what New England's done because they've faced an easy schedule. It's just not worth rolling out Allen this week, and the same could be said for Baker Mayfield. The Browns offense isn't moving like we thought it was gonna move, and they now face the task of playing the Ravens in Baltimore. Personnel wise, we know Baltimore is tough to beat on defense, let alone in Baltimore, and Baker still hasn't ranked higher than eighteenth and weekly scoring in easier situations this year. Of course, he could break out and he could have a big game, but we're playing probability here, and probability says that he should be on your bench this week. Wayne Goleman had every running back touch when Sakuon Barkley went down against Tampa Bay in Week three. As of right now, at the time of this recording, he's the clear cut RB one for the Giants, but he's being ranked as an RB three, and I don't really get it. Again, I don't get it right now, given the matchup, the Giants are at home, their favorites, the game's over under set at forty six and a half, and they're facing Washington, who's now given up the eighth most rushing yards to running backs to start the season. I think we'd all agree that Wayne Galman is in store for about fifteen touches this weekend. I wouldn't be playing players like Royce Freeman and Carlos Hyde ahead of Wayne Goalman, which is how things are being ranked right now. Now, in that same game, you've got Adrian Peterson. If you listen to this show a lot, you know that I'm not one to tout Adrian Peterson very often, but he's now seen seventy seven percent in sixty three percent of Washington's running back rushes over the last two weeks, and this week he'll be in what's projected to be a neutral game script for Washington. That means more Peterson and less Chris Thompson or potentially more Peterson and less Thompson on top of that, as bad as the Giants have been against the pass, they haven't been special against the run either. They've allowed the six most rushing yards to running backs this year and the ninth most fantasy points per game. Peterson doesn't have a huge receiving ceiling, but in what could be a closer game, he should be fine as a fill in type player, and I think the same could be said for the next two deeper plays and as Justin Jackson and Dion Lewis. We saw Jackson get a little bit more love on the ground last week, seeing a season high thirty three percent of the Chargers running back carries and he played a season high thirty seven percent of LA's snaps. Those are good signs, and the Chargers get the best possible matchup on paper this week against Miami. They're huge favorites and Miami's now allowed three more fantasy points per game to running backs than any other team in the league, So Jackson's not a bad flex option. And then there's Dion Lewis. We saw what a negative game script can do to the Tennessee backfield last week. Where Lewis out snapped Derrick Henry in their game against Jacksonville. This week, the Titans are in Atlanta as four and a half point underdogs. The Falcons are notorious for allowing receptions to the running back position. They've led the league in running back receptions allowed during each of Dan Quinn's seasons as head coach, and Lewis ranks twenty third in the NFL and routes run at running back So far, He's run fourteen more routes than Derrick Henry this season. He's a desperation play, but if game script goes south for the Titans this week, which is very possible, he could pay off in PPR formats. Now, on the flip side of things, I'm borderline by how Sony Michelle is being ranked this week. As of right now, he's still being placed as in RB two, but I can't get behind that given the fact that he's seen just fifty six percent of New England's running back rushes, which ranks twenty six in the NFL, and he has a target share below one percent. He's also coming off a game where Rex Burkhead was out on the field for forty more snaps than he was. So I'm not about Sony Michelle right now. Regardless of the matchup. He has touchdown upside and the Patriots could deploy their running backs in a lot of different ways moving forward. But he's not someone that you can trust in Week four. And then there's Duke Johnson. Honestly, I contemplated making Johnson a drop candidate on this week's fifteen Transactions episode, but I decided against it because the running back position is a true dumpster fire. But what confidence do you have in Duke Johnson. Rankers have him at RB thirty three right now, when he's been the RB sixty and the RB forty eight in each of his last two weeks while seeing about three percent and nine percent of Houston's targets and under twenty percent of their running back rushes. He's being out produced by Carlos Hyde, and we've seen Hyde get goal line work. He has two rushes at the goal line and Duke Johnson has zero. I just don't see the upside for Johnson unless Houston throws the ball a lot, but that's not likely as home favorites. So according to Pro Football Focus, Sammy Watkins has run from the slot on two thirds of his snaps this year, Mikol Hartman has a slot snap rate of about fifty seven percent. Now, I bring this up because Detroit, their opponent this week, has seen almost forty one percent of their targets against them go to the slot, and they've allowed in some the most targets to go to that area of the field. Given the high over under in this game, I think that we could see a bounce back performance for Sammy Watkins, and we could see a strong one for me Cole Hardman once again as well. And then in that same contest as Marvin Jones, who's being ranked barely in the top forty this week, He's coming off a big performance against Philadelphia and since Week one, so over the last two weeks he's had at least twenty percent of Detroit's targets in both games. It's a beatable defense. And like I said, with Stafford, he could see a lot of passing, so I think he honestly should be rent closer to wide receiver two range versus wide receiver three. Terry McLaurin just keeps getting a done. I didn't like his matchup last week, but he still came through with eight targets, six catches, seventy five yards in the touchdown against the Bears. He's now ranked in the top twenty in each of his first three weeks. He's a locked in wide receiver two in Fantasy football, you guys, and he gets the Giants this week. New York was torched by Mike Evans in Week three, and they've now allowed four top twenty five performances this season. McLaurin has seen sixteen percent, twenty four percent, and nineteen percent of Washington's targets in each of his three contests this year, so he should give you a nice floor ceiling combo in New York this weekend. DK metcalf seems a little undervalued this week as well. Tyler Lockett. Just as you guys know, he could go nuts against this Cardinals defense because not only have they just been generally bad in the secondary, but they're the worst team at defending the slot to start the year. But even still, we've got to give dk metcalfs some love. He had a down week target share wise and three, but on the year he's seen nineteen percent of Seattle's targets and this plus matchup against Arizona not only is good because of the personnel that he's gonna face, but also the pace that Seattle is going up against. Arizona leads the league in seconds per play, which has forced the defense to face the third most plays in the NFL, and they're just two plays off of the lead. So I like metcalf a good bit this week after a down one last week. Now, markz Valdez Scanting didn't have a down week in Week three, but he's being ranked past wide receiver forty right now, and I don't really get it. The Eagles secondary is beat up, the Packers are playing at home, and MVS has now seen almost twenty five percent of Green Bay's targets this year. Philly's given up three top ten performances and four top fifteen ones this year, So MVS is a logical good play this week. Now. On the flip side, Stefan Diggs is sort of the Sony Michelle of wide receivers. You drafted him high. Maybe he'll find the end zone, but let's stop fooling ourselves. The situation isn't what we thought it would be. The Vikings have been the most run heavy team in football this year, and Dix hasn't even really benefited from a really high target share, so it's just really hard to use him in a matchup against Chicago this week. I actually think that logic dictates that mvs is a better play straight up to Stefan Diggs. I don't think that's even close to a hot take. But meanwhile, there's a pretty big gap between those two players and rankings. And you could make the same argument for Adam Thielen, but his target share is slightly higher, making him a safer option versus Diggs. Now, I'm also not super into John Brown for similar reasons for not liking Josh Allen. Brown's always capable of catching a deep pass, but New England's only allowed three deep ball completions this year. Again, I know they haven't faced tough competition, but it's still worth noting no wide out has ranked higher than wide receiver thirty six against New England this season, and that was Juju Smith Schuster back in Week one. And this is after a season where they ranked in the top ten in points allowed to the wide receiver position. So I'm not optimistic about John Brown this weekend, though we do know that he's always capable of a big player two. The top tight end streamer this week who really probably isn't even considered a tight end streamer anymore, but it's Will Disley. Over the last two weeks, Disley has seen about fifteen percent of Seattle's targets, he scored three times, and he's ranked in the top fifteen in routes run at the position according to PFF ALL the while Nick Venette is gone, he was traded to Pittsburgh, and Vnette had run forty one routes over the last two games while playing forty one percent and thirty one percent of the team snaps. So that helps Disley, as does the fact that Arizona's now allowed three hundred and forty eight yards and five touchdowns to tight ends through three games. That's sixty eight more yards than the next ranked Bucks, and no other team has allowed even four touchdowns. So Disley is absolutely in play this week, and I think that Dawson Knox kind of is too. Tyler Croft appears to still be banged up and that's helped NOx see about twelve percent of Buffalo's targets over the last two weeks. Now, I don't love the Bills offense this week. I've let that be known, but if they see a negative game script, there could be more throwing than usual. And Knox isn't really high on anyone's radar, making him a viable streamer now. On defense, the Colts fit the profile of what you look for in a streamer. They're at home, they're heavy favorites, and they're facing a questionable quarterback in Derek Carr. Defense is against Oakland. Over the last two weeks, so Kansas City and Minnesota, they've tallied seven sacks on Derek Carr and cars thrown three picks. So I think that Indianapolis is a fairly safe option this week. But I do think I like the Steelers more. They're also home favorites against a questionable passer and Andy Dalton, and Dalton's been sacked the six most times in football to start the year. Cincinnati has the highest pass to rush attempt ratio in neutral game scripts this season, which means we could see a lot of throws and if that's the case, we get a lot of sacks and turnover potential. The Steelers are coming off a big game where they had two picks and three fumble recoveries, and honestly it wouldn't be surprising to see them perform at a high level again on Monday night. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and if you can do me a favor, leave me a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. It would really go a long way to helping the show. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.