756: A Weaker Wide Receiver Class

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JAJ zacher rethas j J.

00:00:06
Speaker 2: Zacher reson.

00:00:11
Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode seven hundred and fifty six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. There's been a lot of talk about how this year's wide receiver draft class just isn't very good. I think some of that stems from the fact that recent classes have been awesome and this one just looks bad in comparison. But there's definitely merit to the idea that we're not looking at some unbelievable wide receiver class. With that being said, I'd argue that in draft classes like this one, it's even more important to have a good grasp on the group because strong fantasy assets are going to emerge even if the class in general doesn't look so hot. And is there anyone better to analyze this class than my friend Matt Harmon. Harmon's a football writer and analyst for Yahoo Sports and Yahoo Fantasy, but he also has his side hustle called Reception Perception, which is as unique methodology for wide receiver evaluation. I sat down and talked to Matt about Reception Perception itself, and then of course this year's wide receiver class. We talked about Jackson Smith and Jigba's lack of perimeter work in college, Jordan Addison's production dip last season, Zay Flowers, Antonio Brown comps, and so much more. It was a treat to be able to sit with Matt and talk about this sort of unpredictable draft class. And I guarantee that you walk away from our conversation with a little bit more knowledge. So here he is mister Reception Perception himself.

00:01:32
Speaker 2: Matt Harmon.

00:01:35
Speaker 1: All right, Matt, So, Reception Perception has been a huge hit since you launched it. Can you describe your process and sort of what Reception Perception is all about?

00:01:43
Speaker 2: Well, I appreciate you calling it a huge hit. That's very kind.

00:01:46
Speaker 3: You know, not as popular as some of Boy Young Boy's early albums, but yeah, but a reasonable maybe not a platinum hit, but a reasonable hit.

00:01:56
Speaker 2: Yeah. So, Reception Perception.

00:01:57
Speaker 3: You know, when I was trying to break my way into the dustry many many years ago, you know, I was essentially all right, how do I answer the biggest pressing question that I have about football? And For me, it was with wide receivers, and this was around twenty thirteen is when started coming up with the process of reception perception. For me, it's like, what are wide receivers doing when they're running off screen? Because anybody that plays, you know, watches games, knows like, oh, yeah, you're following the ball. These receivers run off screen, you don't really know what's going on there, And anybody that plays fantasy or follows the league knows that wide receiver production is so inherently dependent on other variables and other factors. I mean, you're lucky if you're a receiver to get like eight to ten targets in a game, but you're still running like thirty plus routes, You're playing like fifty plus snaps. So what's going on when the ball? Like, how can we credit wide receivers with the things that they're doing on a play by play basis that doesn't have to do with those outside variables. So that was really where reception perception came from, trying to quantify route running and receiver performance beyond just the stat sheet. So what I do with reception perception is over an eight game sample for NFL players, or college players. Is I go in and watch everything that happens, baby, every route that they run, how often they run each route type, how often they get open against man, press, zone coverage. Because to me, the one thing a wide receiver can control is how often do they go out there and get open and create a good target for themselves to get from the quarterback and earn targets from an offensive play caller or a team decision maker and again obviously the quarterback as well. So everything basically, like trying to put it into a quantifiable percentage easy to understand for readers and viewers out there to really understand everything about the wide receiver position beyond just the route running aspect and how often they get open, where are they lining up, and where does everything trickle down from there? Because you know this, JJ, and obviously your listeners know this because they're smart as hell. You know, every type of wide receiver is so different and we're going to talk about it with this class. Is a great example that like, some of these guys are completely different from other players, and trying to compare them to, you know, with specific types I think is important as well.

00:04:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think that a great example of that, and we'll get into this class right now is with Jackson Smith and Jigba. You know, it took a second. I think that now he's the consensus wide receiver one You know, if you were to say or ask that back in January, even February, some had Quentin Johnson, some had Jordan Addison, some still do, but I think most people have JSN at their wide receiver one spot. Does your analysis agree?

00:04:29
Speaker 2: First off?

00:04:29
Speaker 1: And then what do you have to say about the fact that he didn't really have this big sample size sort of playing the perimeter in college? Obviously we know the second to laste, you know, sophomore season plays with Garrett Wilson, Chris Alave, great great phenomenal perimeter players. So there's a reason why he played the slot obviously, But we just don't have a massive sample size of him of him playing on the outside. So what do you have to say about that? And what do you have to say about him just in general as a prospect.

00:04:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a big fan. One thing I did this year on the Reception Perception site. People can find it right now is I took my draft board, my draft rankings. Because everybody loves rankings and stack them together the last three classes, because I think one of the big talking points with this class in general is how does is it weaker? How does it compare to previous year's classes? And jays N's a great way to talk about this, because Number one, I do think he stands in a tier of his own in this class to me in terms of the quality of wide receivers. But I don't think that he as a prospect, despite the fact that Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who you mentioned, have said this to me, They've said this to many others that and I know they're trying to hype their boy up, but at the same time I give it a little bit of credence that they think he is the best player of the three of them. I slightly disagree with that. I think that those guys were in a tier above JSN as well. But to me, I do think the reception perception would agree that Jackson Smith that Jigbo is not just the best player in this class. But like you mentioned, when you're looking at a guy who ran almost exclusively as a slot receiver, and in the games that I sampled for him, he was in the slot on eighty three percent of his and he was off the line of scrimmage for eighty point three percent of his snaps. And that actually is a big distinguisher that we don't talk of. We certainly don't talk about it enough in fantasy, but I don't think we talk about enough in general that there's a huge difference. Like we just think outside wide receivers and how do they match up with outside cornerbacks, But there's a big, big difference between playing that X receiver position and playing the flanker position, and with the flanker you're able to move them around pre snap, and I think there's more similarities to what a flanker receiver does as a zone beating receiver, to what a slot receiver does on the inside than really what that X receiver doing, which is the most difficult position and you're going to run the most difficult route. So I think though, when you're trying to move like a guy who played exclusively in the slot, and you're trying to get them like reps against outside or like trying to project them to reps outside in the NFL, it's important to look at how often they beat man coverage on the inside. It's not gonna be the same as on man coverage on the outside, but it is a pretty good indicator. And when you look at jsn interception perception among prospects sampled, he's at the eighty six percent tile and success right vers man coverage. He has the second best success rate verse man coverage of seventy five percent in this class among the guys I've sampled, and it's a tiny, tiny sample. Jj only four point eight percent of his route sampled, so a very small handful, but he has an eighty three percent success rate versus press on those routes, and which I think is important if you're projecting him as to you know, I think slot only. It's almost like we're trying to use that as the new pejorative when slot receiver just used to be the pejorative term for receivers. I don't think that JSN is necessarily a guy that you have to play in the slot, Like if you're going to go into two receiver sets, he could be a guy that plays off the line of scrimmage as that flanker because of what he does on not just against man coverage, but especially on routes like dig routes, out routes, those intermediate routes, not just a little pop gun slot receiver routes, which is my pejorative for slot receivers. I think that you see enough from there to have him be more of a full field guy.

00:07:53
Speaker 1: I think the other thing with him, if we're looking at this from a fantasy perspective, is that if a team is going to draft him in the top fifteen team, let's say they're not going to use them like Cole Beasley. You know, there's there's It's just it's not logical to go that route. It's much more logical to say, Okay, yeah he can win in the slot. Hen win in that area of the field. He can win like Keenan Allen or even like a CD Lamb who played plays a lot there. You know that that's fine, and that can still be very very productive, even Cooper Cup that can still be very very productive, you know, from a fantasy perspective. And I think that's sort of lost in all of this too, where I understand the I mean, I think there is at least some fear or some red flag involved in this, just because it wasn't like we had this perfect sample of him playing everywhere. But at the same time, if a team sees that avowal in that way, and then you obviously see him being able to win on the on the outside in different ways, a team's not going to just spend that draft capital to use them.

00:08:48
Speaker 2: In that way.

00:08:49
Speaker 3: I mean, but even before I got into really diving into two JSN and really diving into this entire class, like you brought up the name Cooper cup and like, can we really have, oh, he's only a slot receiver. Be like the first negative that we write down for a player when Cooper Cup just led the damn league in yards, catches, and touchdowns two years ago and was like the best receiver in football playing not as a again, not as a slot only player like exclusive, right, Like a Cole Beasley type is a great great like that that's a pop gun slot receiver. Jamison Crowder like a pop gun slot receiver. But that's that's kind of my point in that even within typical positional archetypes like slot outside, there's a there's gonna be so many different guys. Even with again within this class, where there are guys that might be some of those smaller guys, but then there are these power slot players like a Cooper Cup or I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Keenan Allen I think is a perfect comparison for JSN because Keenan Allen has been like an elite elite tier route runner despite doing some slot like fifty to fifty slot outside in certain seasons, and he is certainly one of the it has certainly been one of the best receivers of this era in my opinion, and I think JSN can reach that type of ceiling. And you know, again, is that is that a superstar like elite elite level player. Maybe, but it's certainly a really good guy that's going to be great. And I think in the NFL for a long time.

00:10:10
Speaker 1: So my wide receiver two in this class, i'd be curious to where to see where you have him is Jordan Addison. You know, obviously I'm a I'm a product of the University of Pittsburgh as well, and so you know, let's let's shift those biases and push them aside. But he was so good at pitt you know, a couple of years ago with Kenny Pickett, and then that production did take a pretty big dip when he transferred to USC. So do you think that's a problem at all. Did you see anything that suggested that there was a problem there or do you just have any problems those profiled you've seen?

00:10:40
Speaker 3: So I think my theory on why he was a little bit less of a fit I guess at USC based on what and then what he did at Pitt And I have his twenty twenty two sample that's on the website is only USC games, but I did go back and like look at a handful of PIT games as well, just to sort of try to un understand the differences in the usage there at least, and I think it does come back to usage, you know, my biggest and it comes also to my biggest problem with Jordan Addison as a prospect and your problem in quotes there. I think where he struggles the most is when USC would line him up as that X receiver outside on the line of scrimmage and corners would get up on him and play physical press coverage, you know his I have a different receiver ranked second in the class, who we'll talk about. I'm sure here in a second. He's my third rank guy, Jordan Addison. I went back and forth between these two players for a long long time. The success rate versus man and zone overall between that player and Jordan Addison are very similar. But where the difference is. Jordan Addison came into fifty one point one percent success rate versus press. That's a seventeen percentile mark. It's one of the weaker ones in this class. And I think where you really see it as when again, he would line up as a X receiver, a corner be right on him, and he needed to run like a true go route. Like his nine route success rate is very low, bringing down some of that press coverage score. But I think Pitt did a really great job of, you know, moving him off the line of scrimmage, moving him as a slot player because his like slant route, dig route, and curl route success rates are absurdly high. Even his post route success rate is very high. And I think for his NFL team, he's probably gonna have to play as a flanker. He's probably gonna have to play as even maybe like a forty to fifty percent slot guy to get him free from some of that stuff. And if you think about him with a like a strong arm quarterback, like a Justin Herbert or a Josh Allen like rifling in some of those throws where he's so open on those deep and intermediate inbreaking routes, He's going to be a great fit there. So I really like Jordan Addison as a player. I actually think he's kind of similar to Johan Dottson last year and I was really high on Dots and I like Dotson as a player. I actually think I like dots in a little bit more than I like Addison, but like just a really good consummate number two receiver is kind of how I viewed Jordan Addison. And I think that route running success on those inbreaking routes, I mean, you could pile up production if you're fit with the right quarterback there.

00:13:03
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:13:03
Speaker 1: Actually Dotson was one of my models comps for Addison, so that's good to hear.

00:13:08
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:13:08
Speaker 1: So back to the point about him playing on the perimeter and playing up against these corners, did you see a similar because obviously the BMI debate, a size debate is always a thing at the wide receiver position. It will always be a thing at the wide receiver position, and it was a thing, a massive thing when Davante Smith was coming out, And so I'm curious because I think a lot of people hearing that from you would be curious too, did you see similar things with a player like Davonte Smith when he was coming out as you did with Jordan Addison.

00:13:36
Speaker 3: No, Like, if you actually look back at Davonte Smith's reception perception from that year, eighty fourth percentile success rate versus press seventy eight percent. So the gap there is massive between Addison and DeVante Smith. And I think Smith was one. He was absurdly athletic. He was an incredible Actually that was that. Excuse me, let me, I met I messed up there. That was actually his rookie year. That Davonte Smith's reception perception numbers I was just quoting there. I actually is actually even better seventy eight point nine percent success rate versus press his final year at Alabama eighty ninth percentile in that mark among college prospects, so even better. And I think Davante Smith number one, He's longer for in terms of a wingspan, he can use his arms to get off the lineus scrimmage a little bit better, he can fight through that physicality a little bit better, And I think he was just an overall better athlete. Too, in terms of his quickness, short area burst a little bit better than Jordan Addison. Yeah, I would say, like in terms of two guys that whose size shows up more, it's certainly Jordan Addison is compared to Devonte Smith.

00:14:41
Speaker 1: Quentin Johnston, I feel like he's got to be the most polarizing wide receiver in this class at this point, at least on like the higher end know of how people are viewing guys in this class.

00:14:51
Speaker 2: He doesn't look that great in my model.

00:14:52
Speaker 1: I remember when he was like the consensus wide receiver one. I plugged him in and I was like, this doesn't look right. Something's a little bit off. Here are people who look at things through through analytics the way and numbers the way that I do like him a lot, though, so I think that you can go a lot of different ways depending on the lens you're sort of viewing this from. I'm very curious about what reception perception says about Quentin Johnson and do you think that his physicality, because that seems to be obviously the number one trait for him, do you think that can translate to the NFL.

00:15:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're not going to be surprised by this.

00:15:24
Speaker 3: Because you know, you've known me for years, and I think people who've followed my work for years are are not going to be surprised to hear I come down somewhere in the middle here on the on the yeah, I'm not on really either side of the extreme where you know, I know some people have him, Yeah they don't, they don't like him at all. Some people, like you said, have him as a top receiver in the class. I come down kind of somewhere in the middle there because I think you can see the strengths and the weaknesses. You know, he is actually an extremely high success rate verst Man coverage third best in the class, seventy four point eight, but he really falls off against zone twelve percentile success rate there, fifty ninth against press, you know, not terrible, but not great. And really his success comes on a small handful of routes, nine routes, slant routes, post routes, some corners, deep out stuff like that, but definitely a very limited role, only really lining up sort of on one side of the field there. But you'd get a ton of look at him as an X receiver, and so in terms of his peer like separation ability, and I think he's got potential to be a really good route runner because he shows the fluidity at that size to do it. It's just right now. Again, he's very limited in what they asked him to do at TCU, and really where he was successful. It's a lot of deep routes, a lot of deep overs, slants, stuff like that. I think one thing that's really interesting about Johnston is sort of the other stuff. Where he's great after the catch. We know that RP data would back that up as well. It's the contested catch stuff in the hands that's really troubling, right, Like he's It's so funny because we're looking at Quintin Johnson a part of the appeals. He's six strees over two hundred pounds. He stands out in this receiver class, but he might play the smallest of all of them, you know, in terms of the way he wins after the catch and his contested catch rate, which for me is below fifty percent, it's not really where you want it to be forty six point two percent. Actually, you want it to be much higher than that, especially to play that role. So I actually think he's pretty similar to Christian Watson last year. And even when Christian Watson came in and had great success in the second half of his rookie season, I'm telling you he's not doing it as like a like a refined route runner. He's not doing it all across the full routree. It's a lot of slants, deep overs, vertical routes, stuff like that, getting him in space, where again I think Quentin Johnston is freakier in space and after the catch then he was deep down the field. And I felt the same way about Christian Watson, who I compared to Marteves Bryant last year. So I think these guys are all on like that axis of wide receivers.

00:17:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes a ton of sense to me. I mean my model spit out t Higgins as a comp for Quentin Johnston. But then on the the number two guy was Paraman So it was like, yeah, you know, that's why when you when you when you say that you're living in the middle with with Johnson, I kind of am too, because I can see this range of outcomes and see that it can go in a lot of different directions. So that was that was good insight with him. Let's talk about Zay Flowers. I have a feeling. I have a feeling that this is the guy that you probably like as your wide receiver too. And it's really really interesting because Flowers is not someone that really checks the high level analytical boxes you know that folks look for in a wide receiver. He's not an early declay receiver. He didn't have some super super elite breakout age. You know, his production was fine, but it wasn't amazing. Obviously, you know that production is within the context of his offense, but obviously his offense had a lot of struggles as well.

00:18:44
Speaker 2: But you know, now he's.

00:18:45
Speaker 1: Getting he's getting he's getting Antonio Brown comps and and obviously that should get anyone excited because of what Antonio Brown can do on the field. So I'm curious, do you think that that Zay Flowers is getting that kind of comp getting that kind of love from because this wide receiver draft class isn't necessarily as good as what we've seen in recent memory, or do you think that he really does have that kind of juice?

00:19:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, two things, well, a lot of things here, but yeah, he is the guy that I ranked second. But again, to go back to the stacked board ranking that I mentioned, like for me again, Jackson Smith and Jig was in my second tier of prospects from the last three classes combined, but he's the only one in this class there. So then all of these guys we've talked about so far, Addison Flowers and Quintin Johnson and one other guy is in this this third tier, but they're so they're all pretty similar. So I'm kind of splitting hairs in terms of do I prefer, say Flowers over these other guys. Also, by the way, we'll come back to these Flowers in just a second, not to hijack your show, but I'm curious about about this because we just talked about Quinton Johnson, we're talking about these these other two guys, Flowers and Addison, I have Traylon Burke's actually right in this group. Who do you think is a better like those four guys we've just talked about, and then can get back to Flowers in a second, Flowers, Addison Trail and Burkes, Quinton Johnson. Do you think Burks is like a better prospect than all those guys or where do you think he he.

00:20:08
Speaker 1: Looks the best analytically, I can say that, but I don't think that it's like so dramatically different. Like last year, my model had the Big Three as the Big three had Drake London as the wide receiver one, and then it had Garrett Wilson and Chris Alave there too, and then you know, from there it was this lumping of like Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, and and then Johan Dotson was kind of ish close, but he wasn't necessarily quite there. I would probably prefer Treylon Burks over these guys because I think that the the upside and the tools that are there, there's just more of a ceiling from a fantasy perspective. But I think that if you're looking at like median outcome, I would feel more comfortable probably with his Za Flowers or a Jordan Addison.

00:20:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I feel I like Flowers and Addison better than Burke's. But I went back and forth between who do I like better as prospects Johnson and Burkes and people you know what people can subscribe to see how.

00:20:58
Speaker 2: I came down to that one.

00:21:00
Speaker 3: But back to Zay Flowers, who, yeah, I have is the second ranked receiver in this class. The Antonio Brown comps are funny because I've said this on a lot of shows this offseason, but I think it bears repeating that. I think if you compare a player to Antonio Brown, you deserve a thirty day minimum, you know, jail sentence, right to jail right away, no questions asked, because it's just I mean, he's one of the people forget because of how his career has ended now at this point. You know, he's like naked in pools at this point. He's a guy who's like playing at a top five all time level at his peak, I mean, was legitimately insane. But I get the I get the reason why people make that comparison because of how Jay Flowers plays. And I think the biggest thing here is you get a lot of snaps from Zay Flowers at every single receiver position, including the X receiver position. Like I mentioned, he took fifty eight point two percent of his snaps behind the line of scrimmage and forty eight point one percent on the line of scrimmage. Like, you get him playing some real X receivers. And the big difference between Flowers and Addison why eventually decided I like Flowers better seventy two point seven percent success rate versus press for Jay Flowers, that's the seventy nine percentile. It's quite a bit better than where Jordan Addison came out. Like, I think, if there's a receiver who plays above his size, it's absolutely Zay Flowers to me. And I'm really confident that he could potentially hack it as an outside receiver at his size and you know, maybe even be a true X receiver if he goes down that Antonio Brown archtype. I'm not say comparison, but yeah, I love his love his route running, I love his explosiveness, he mix plays after the catch. We know that he'll make like some dazzling catches, but he's a bit of a mistake prone player as well. So to bring it back to the Steelers, I've compared him to Deontay Johnson, who is a great route runner, a really good technician, actually plays as like a true X receiver and has at different times of his career, but he's a very mistake prone player. So I was like, you know what, I'll give him the bud light. You know, Antonio Brown comparison, which is basically Deontay Johnson but with layer of like boneheaded plays in there. So I ended up going with that comp for Zay Flowers.

00:23:04
Speaker 2: I like that. I like that a lot.

00:23:05
Speaker 1: I mean the thing with Flowers too, and this is, you know, this is definitely not as quantitative as people would probably think that I would take that I would have, but Zay Flowers showing up to the combine with so much more muscle, it's like he's got that dog in them, you know, like he clearly, he clearly wants this. And I think when you combine that with the fact that only thirty three percent of his snaps came from the slot his final season, I mean, he's playing the perimeter at this like one hundred and eighty pound frame shows up the combine ten you know, fifteen pounds heavier or whatever it was. I think that he's clearly got the right mindset to be able to play that kind of role, because you need that kind of mindset to play that kind of role at the NFL level.

00:23:43
Speaker 2: So I'm with you.

00:23:43
Speaker 1: He's he's been a big climber for me, despite the analytical profile just being like it's not bad, it's just very average, sort of like a Jahan Dotson type like analytical profile, not that he's that kind of player, but from an analytical profile standpoint, that's sort of what he looks like. Let's move on to a guy who really thrived in the slot and probably will thrive in the slot in the NFL. As Josh Downs, he looks almost exactly like Elijah Moore in my prospect model. You know, he profiles as a primary slot but he does look like he is a very very good player. So I'm curious what you're seeing with him.

00:24:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a big Josh Downs fan. He actually has the highest success rate verse man coverage among the prospects have charted this year. And you know, again smaller sample size, similar with Elijah Moore. A small sample size from a press coverage standpoint, but just eight percent of his routes sampled. He went against press coverage for me, but seventy six point nine percent, that's an eighty six percentile scores. Again, very similar to Elijah Moore in that way that when you saw him go against physical pressman coverage.

00:24:43
Speaker 2: He was awesome in college.

00:24:45
Speaker 3: And I think Elijah Moore, you know, his career has gone a little weird, but in his rookie season he was awesome as an outside receiver, and I think that you know, Josh Downs again, is he going to be an outside receiver? I don't know, but man, I mean he's definitely a receiver who excels despite his size. JJ he actually has my highest contested catch rate in this class, and that's what's so interesting to me. Like we're talking about the guy who's five nine, one hundred and seventy pounds ninety three point eight percent contested catch rate, which is just hilarious and a decent sample size too. Eighteen percent of his sample targets werenested were a contested target for me. So like his quarterback Drake May this past year really trusted him like in tight coverage situations, Josh Down's one in those tight coverage situations. I know there's always like a ceiling question for a player like this, but you know, I could see him being like in the Tyler Lockett, which again that was my prospect comp for Elijah Moore, so we're talking the same like bucket of player. I also think he's very similar to Sterling Shepherd, who I'm sure you remember I was a huge Stirring Shepherd guy coming out. I still to this day maintained that if Sterling Shepherd had never started getting injured, like the moment that Odell Beckham got traded.

00:25:48
Speaker 2: I mean Sterling Shepherd, he would have been a great player.

00:25:51
Speaker 3: I mean every time he's on the field, he gets like ten ten plus targets every single I think he's in like that arc type of receiver, which maybe doesn't excite everybody, but I love route runners like this.

00:26:02
Speaker 2: No.

00:26:02
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's not again, it's not like the most amazing class in the world. And I don't think that you just need to have wide receiver one ceiling to warrant a rookie draft pick. In general, you know, I think that's totally fine to have these kinds of players in your team. People who drafted Tyler Lockett were not disappointed throughout his career to have him on their on their fantasy squads. So yeah, I like that a lot about downs Marvin Mims. I feel like if there's one wide receiver who is getting arguably the most hype within the fantasy space, not the real life space. The real life space they're more into like the bigger guys like the Mingos or the Tillman's. But I think within the fantasy space, people are really really loving Marvin Mims. My model likes him hard to not like him analytically, I'm curious where you have Marvin Mims.

00:26:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, a couple weeks ago is like Marvin Mims week seemingly on Twitter. Anytime he got on the bird app, everybody's talking about Marvin Mims. I like Marvin Mims. I'm kind of I'm not quite all the way there as high as some people are. Definitely, the analytical profile is really good. I've read that in your draft guid, which is awesome everybody. But I don't need to tell everybody to down lead your draft guide to listen to the podcast, come on. But yeah, I mean in terms of his ability to win down the field. Nine routes, post routes, corner routes, deep outs, those are all really good routes for him. He shows you some ability to work underneath as well, like slant routes, flat routes, stuff like that. It's everything kind of in the intermediate area. You know, when he's gonna have to run a dig route against man coverage. I think he's more of a speed slot receiver. You know, he's a guy that you almost never see run against press coverage. But didn't really shine in the very very small reps that you have there. He feels very similar to John Brown, another guy that you know. I love John Brown when he was in the when he was in the league, so you know John Brown. To me, I always thought it was like a fringy number one type, high end number two receiver. So maybe Mims could go down that access like the t y Hilton John Brown access of receivers. But I could also see him topping out as a really good number three receiver that's gonna push things vertically. I love the speed slot receivers are are awesome because I think they stretched the defense in such unique and challenging ways. But it is kind of weird that I actually think he might end up being a better real life player than a fantasy player. And yet it seems like the hype, as you mentioned, is coming from the like different side there.

00:28:14
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean, look, I like him. I don't want anyone to walk away from the show thinking that I don't like him. I just know that there are people out there who are in love with him, like yeah, putting him in that same like I don't have him in the Addison tier, for instance, but I do think he's good, Like I think that he's someone that you know, I would say, someone that you would you should target in your rookie draft. But if everyone's hyping him up, then he might not become the most obvious target in the world. But with that being said, I do think that he's a very very good player, really good analytical profile, had good production all three years in school early declare all that good stuff, and his adots in college, like you mentioned, just out of control the way they used him. One player who's seen his stock drop quite a bit over the last few months. Really, I mean, you could say the last year is Kaishan BOUDI are you nervous about him at all? I usually don't care a ton about athleticism, partially because athleticism is typically embedded.

00:29:10
Speaker 2: In draft capital in some way.

00:29:11
Speaker 1: We don't see like these horrible athletes get drafted in the first or second round generally, and we might not see that with Booty either. But I am a little bit concerned about his like poor testing, and it just seems like he's not the most motivated in the world out there on a football field, and so I think that it all combines to like create this narrative around him that just scares the living you know what out of me.

00:29:33
Speaker 2: So, so what are you seeing with Booty?

00:29:35
Speaker 3: I mean he like stood on most of his terrible times from the from the combine at his pro day too, which right, yes, yes, which was like stunning and I think might speak to some of the concerns that you was brought up there about how like motivated he is. Yeah, he's a I have a tough time with him. Not one of the prospects I'm super excited about in terms of like we're looking for potential sleepers in the class, Like, yeah, to me, there there are a lot of other guys I prefer we're looking for players, but he definitely shows you flashes. I just can't quite figure out where he's gonna fit. And when I have this many questions from an on field perspective, and then we have this many questions from like a what the hell happened to your career? And like why why have you? Like why now are we asked the last question? But the testing stuff in the motivation, I don't know. There are just a lot of other guys in the class I'm excited about.

00:30:22
Speaker 1: All right, So my favorite sleeper in this class, and I've DMD you about this. We talked about this a little bit. Is Jayden Reid. And this is me selfishly bringing this up on the show because it's not like Jayden Reid is this like top five prospect within this class. But he posted great numbers as a freshman at Western Michigan, and he did that in the same system that sky Moore played in, and he actually had a better freshman season within the context of his offense and sky Moore had. So I saw that, and then I see what he did at Michigan State. He lined up everywhere in Michigan State. He was in the backfield of times, he returned kicks and punts and so as a result, one of his comps in my model was, I mean, it's weird saying this, but one of my in the model with Stefan Diggs for Jaden Reid and so all of that combine, I'm like, what if this guy is actually very very good?

00:31:08
Speaker 2: You know. Look, I look back.

00:31:09
Speaker 1: At at my model and the players going back to twenty eleven, and I look at like Stefan Diggs profile, and I'm like, how the heck did this happen? Like, like, how was he not like, at least a second round pick just looking at all. Yes, right, But you know, I don't think that he I don't think that Jayden Reid stands out like Stefan Diggs did analytically. But there are some parallels, there are some similarities. So what are you seeing?

00:31:31
Speaker 2: How of reed?

00:31:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a big Jayden Reid fan. I like him more than Marvin Mims, who we've talked about. I like he's one of my favorite kind of like, I hope he goes in the third round type of bets. I think he's a very good player, and you mentioned it. I think one thing is really exciting about him is that you similar to Zay Flowers. You get to see him play all three receiver positions on the line of scrimmage for forty seven percent of his sample snaps off the line for fifty two fifty three percent, he took thirty eight percent of his snaps outside on the right, thirty percent on the left, and was lined up in the slot for twenty six percent. And that actually left right distinction is important because a lot of these guys like Jordan Adison was almost exclusively a right side receiver. You know, Quentin Johnson almost exclusively left side. Like typically you see these guys heather to one line of one side of the field, and just from a body mechanics standpoint, not only are you never going to see that in the NFL, Like you're never gonna see one guy like I think the highest I have is like DK Metcalf's rookie season, he was like sixty percent or sixty five percent one side and that was kind of well outside of DeAndre Hopkins and Cliff at Kingsbury, which is actually another conversation entirely, but typically you're not going to see someone on the field like one side of the field for a ton because body mechanic wise, it's a lot harder to flip yourself around and it's important anyways, that's really dorky stuff. But what the stuff I like about Jane Reed, not just you see him play all three receiver positions, is I think he's got the makings of being a very good route runner. He actually has the highest success rate versus press in the class for me seventy point three percent success rate versus man coverage, which is in the Flowers Addison zone in this class, and seventy nine percent success rate versus zone, which is a pretty solid mark as well, fifty third percentile among college prospects. So I like Jayden Reid a lot, and he shows you pretty good ball skills as well. Like not a dominant contested catch guy, but sixty four percent of his contested catches are contested targets.

00:33:19
Speaker 2: He won.

00:33:21
Speaker 3: I told you this, I think in dms JJ. I've said it before on other places too. I think he's like two tweaks away from being a really really good player. He's a little bit Terry McLaurin asked to me that, and who I think is pretty similar to Stefan Diggs as well. So again same access of wide receivers here that they can be these really good route runners while also being you know, outside receivers who played that X receiver position and became the reason. Like McLaurin, I think is sneakily elite even though people don't want to talk about it. I think he's elite. And I think that Stephan Diggs is obviously elite. Is because not only are these great separators, are also great in the contested catch game. And again, like timing his leaps a little bit better, being more consistent at the catch point, like Reid could get there, but it's just like a couple tweaks, and I think he'd be a really great player.

00:34:05
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:34:06
Speaker 1: I mean basically, what you're saying is and what we're saying is he's gonna be a good value in rookie drafts this year end.

00:34:11
Speaker 2: Oh totally.

00:34:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, He's one of these guys that I can't wait to see where he lands, because you know, McLaurin was someone that landed on like a light depth chart in Washington. I don't even remember who was playing, but usually a light depth chart in Washington and ended up becoming the top receiver right away because he was so fundamentally sound. And that's kind of what I think Jalen Reid could be a guy who goes up that range, and if not, maybe he's like a Russell Gage type player, you know, a guy who has a couple of moments and is a smaller player but could beat man coverage. I think that those are kind of good comparisons comparisons for Jayden Reid.

00:34:44
Speaker 1: There are tons of other wide receivers in this class we haven't talked about. Let's end the show by talking about some of the wide receivers that you like that we haven't been able to talk talk through talk about that you see as sleepers that you think are overrated, underrated whoever. Just talk about wide receivers. Let the listeners hear it.

00:35:03
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:35:03
Speaker 3: I really like Jonathan Mingo. I know you mentioned him earlier, and he's someone that I definitely think NFL people will like more than fantasy people because I know his like analytical profiles didn't have like like a bunch of seasons about like four hundred yards or something. Yeah.

00:35:16
Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting is, and we're recording this on Monday for the Tuesday Show, I send an email blast out literally earlier today basically saying, hey, look, Jonathan Mingo's profile is pretty trash. Like on paper, it does not look good analytically, and there's really not that many comps that you can totally look to, you know, maybe like a Chase Claypool, maybe like a Michael Pittman or something like that. That was another guy who sort of looked semi similar analytically, but at the same time, when you're layering on top the average draft position data and where people are drafting these guys, he's still an afterthought for the most part within the market. So he's Yeah, there's at least traits that you seem to be able to latch onto. And I'm curious, so what are some of those traits that you really like it with him? Because that's going to get people to probably latch on him and get him in the third round of their rookie drafts this year.

00:36:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's someone that, you know, I think we're all excited for, like trying to find some good big receivers in this class because there's so many smaller guys. But you know, and he's six two and two hundred and twenty and like he played at Old Miss, so everybody's gonna talk about AJ Brown. I actually think that he's more of like the power slot receiver mold and something I have in his profile Jonathan Mingos is that his collegiate data at Old Miss from RP last year a lot of the success storates which aren't super high on paper, but they are almost identical to aman Ross Saint Brown when he was coming out of USC in twenty twenty one, and amon Ros Saint Brown and his RP sample was a seventy percent outside player. Jonathan Mingo was a sixty five percent outside player on the left side of the field. But and again this is on on the website. People can people can look at aman Ro's profile and see like the whole time, like, Yeah, this guy's a big slot receiver.

00:36:57
Speaker 2: He's a power slot receiver.

00:36:57
Speaker 3: He should be like in the Cooper Cup role, which is basically exactly what's happened with I'm on Ross Saint Brown, and I think that Jonathan Mingo would fit, It would fit really well in that role. He's probably the best blocking receiver in this class. I'm sure your the Dynasty listeners are just you know, they're they're just trying to just salivating with excitement, trying to contain their enthusiasm. Keep the pants on, folks, best blocking receiver in the class. But you see old miss bring him in like tied to the lion scrimmage, bring him in the backfield to get a use of that like heft, similar to what the Packers have done with Alan Lazard at times over the last couple of years. So I think that's a really a good kind of comparison for him. You know that I'm on Ross Ain't Brown a role comparison could be good for Jonathan Mingo, who does play like bully ball after the catch in the contested catch game. I again, I just feel like an NFL team is gonna like him more than he will, you know, go in the fantasy world and stuff like that. But if he finds that right role, just like Saint Brown did. I mean Saint Brown was a guy I know we're in a league together, and I'm a coward. I took Cadarius Tony over I'm on Ross Saint Brown the year those guys came out, and I hated Tony's profile and I loved Saint Brown's more. But it was just the one guy win the fourth round, one guy win the first round. What are you gonna do? So I'm still hating myself for that one. But yeah, No, like Mingo, I think could be he could be in that type of role. I also like Puka Macau, you know, as a Day three receiver. Could be somebody that's really interesting. Another guy that shows you ability to play all three receiver positions. I think is a pretty nice separator and plays well and tight coverage.

00:38:28
Speaker 2: Those are two. Those are two guys I think might go well.

00:38:30
Speaker 3: Mingo might go on Day two and I rank him as a Day two player, but Puka is a guy who might go on the third day who's an interesting sleeper too.

00:38:38
Speaker 1: Matt, my friend, thank you so much for taking the time to talk about this year's wide receiver class. For anyone not following Harmon on Twitter, make sure you change that and find him at Matt Harmon Underscore b YB should also check out his workover on Yahoo and at Reception Perception dot com. And as usual, you can follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB and check out Late round dot com for what I'm offering, including this year's late round prospect. We're just a little over a week away from the start of the draft and the guid is the perfect way to get prepped from a fantasy football perspective. Thanks for listening, though, everyone, I greatly appreciate it. I'll be back in your ears later this week with the Mailbag episode.