725: 10 Trends for Week 15

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Shake Zacher reefon what's up everyone, It's JJ zachar esen in. This is episode seven and twenty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Basketball season is going strong, which means Wednesday nights are jam packed with NBA action and Fandel and Buzzer plan on giving you a chance to win big with their daily fantasy basketball contest. Interest in the NBA Clutch Shot presented by Buzzer and NBA DFS contest taking place every Wednesday from now until March that gives you a chance to win a share Fandel's biggest prize pool. Simply construct your best nine player roster while staying under their salary cap, and follow along as the game's unfold. Using Fandel's live scoring feature. Earn points for points scored, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, and watches your lineup climbs the ranks. The higher up the leaderboard your lineup finishes, the more cash you'll win. It's that simple. The contest is live, so visitfandle dot com Slash League slash NBA hyphen Maine hyphen Marquee hyphen one and submit your lineups now. That's fandle dot Com Slash League Slash, NBA Dash, Maine Dash, Marquee Dash one. Trend one this week is all about Jerry Judy. I feel like people have kind of just ignored him as a fantasy asset this season, but he's averaging almost twenty PPR points per game over his last four healthy games. Judy has played the majority of Denver snaps in seven games this year. In those contests, he's averaging seventeen point two PPR points per game. I have a feeling he's gonna fly under the radar next offseason. He's been way better than people realize. A player who's been going in the opposite direction is Nick Chubb. Chubb has seen single digit PPR points in three of his last four. He hasn't seen a target share higher than eight percent and any of those contests, And unfortunately, if de Sean Watson doesn't get better, it's gonna impact Chubb. Pre Deshaun Watson, the Browns were averaging almost thirty six yards per drive that was actually fourth highest in football. They were scoring touchdowns on twenty five point six percent of their drives. That was the eighth best in football in Watson's two games. So in weeks thirteen and fourteen, Cleveland's averaging twenty four point seven yards per drive, so eleven yards less than where they were at with percent. They scored a touchdown on just four point two percent of their drives. They've basically been the worst offense in the league over the last two weeks. So yeah, things are worse offensively, and that's hurting everyone, including Nick Chubb. I guess I should probably update you guys on DeAndre Swift. After getting over the fifty percent snapshare mark in week thirteen, he fell back down to thirty three percent. In week fourteen. He had a twenty three percent running back rush share, down from his fifty two percent share the week prior, and his target share dropped by four percentage points two, but he at least was still at that eleven percent mark. The Lions haven't run any offense plays while trailing over the last couple of weeks, but I would anticipate them going to Swift if they reach a negative game script. But overall, it's really frustrating right now. Joe Mixon returned to action this past week after his concussion, and he played just fifty nine percent of Cincinnati snaps. That was his lowest snapshare in a completed game all season, and Samaj p Ryan ran more routes. I'm definitely nervous about Mixon. We can say he was coming back from injury, but it wasn't like a knee injury or something. P Ryan played well while Mixon was out and they could be rewarding him and it doesn't help. But Cincinnati has the second worst playoff schedule for running backs according to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed method. You guys remember that mailbag episode after Week five where I talked about this year's top quarterbacks and how while they were dominating, they likely wouldn't dominate that much rest of season. Well, since that point in time, Lamar Jackson he's definitely fallen off. He's averages a little over fifteen points per game. Patrick Mahomes has mostly maintained his performance at twenty four points per game. He's been great this year, and so has Jalen Hurts. He's basically been the same two at about twenty five point seven points per game, but Josh Allen hasn't. Alan was averaging twenty nine point three points per game across those five games. Since then, his points per game average has dropped to twenty one. That's still very good. But this is really in line with a number that I was talking about on that show and how we typically see these quarterbacks regress. It's just hard to maintain excellence. Regression almost always hits. Now. I'd still love to have Alan. He's still gonna give you an edge in fantasy football. That edge just has not been as significant during the second half of the season. David and Joku has had a great role when healthy this year. He saw twenty three percent target share in Week fourteen, and he's now dip below an eighteen percent target share in just two of nine games played this year. Here's a list of tight ends with a higher target share per game rate than David and Joku this year. Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews Minnesota, TJ. Hockinson, Dallas Goddard, and Pat Fryarmouth. That's it. Don't sleep on Djoku down the stretch. The Miami Dolphins have faced three bottom half opponents and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this year, meaning there were three matchups that were favorable for Tua and that passing attack. In those three games, Tua ranked as the QB won, the QB four, and the QB two in weekly scoring. He has just one top ten performance outside of those games. This is something to keep in mind and be aware of down the stretch because Miami has three below average matchups in the Fantasy playoffs. Travis Homer didn't do a whole lot in Seattle's Week fourteen game, but it's important to know that he played ninety one percent of Seattle's offensive snaps. He had a ninety percent running back rush chare. Now at the time of this recording, I have no idea whether or not Kenneth Walker is going to play this week, but Homer is likely going to be a workhorse in a tough matchup if the same guys are out in that backfield. Now we'll go from one running back named Travis to another. Travis Etn has been awful in Fantasy football. Over his last four games. In PPR formats, he scored ten point three, seven point six, and three point two PPR points. He had been getting away with huge days on the ground in the middle of the season. Week seven against the Giants one hundred and fourteen rushing yards Week eight against the Broncos one hundred and fifty six rushing yards, Week nine against the Raiders one hundred and nine rushing yards. But he hasn't been able to generate big plays and the Jags are also not using him that much in the passing game. He went from a nine point two percent target share through his first nine games of the year to four point two percent over his last four, and if you remove the game where he got hurt, that number is still five point six percent. It's still a whole lot lower than his target chhaer to start the year. It's probably hard to bench Travis Etn right now, but you definitely definitely have to temper expectations now. Speaking of not connecting on a big play, Mike Evans hasn't finished as a top thirty wide receiver in PPR formats since Week eight. That's five straight down games, five straight bad performances. He scored double digit pper points just once during this stretch, and it was when he posted ten point four points. Now, the target share numbers aren't dramatically different from Mike Evans. What is different is that he's not seeing targets down the field as frequently. During this five game stretch, just twenty and a half percent of Evans targets are coming fifteen or more yards down the field. From weeks one through eight, that number was thirty seven percent. So the way they've been using Evans has definitely changed and that's having a profound impact on his fantasy totals. We need more deep balls for Mike Evans. That's going to do for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere pod cast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Check out lateround dot com for everything I'm offering. Join the Patreon and subscribe to the newsletter. Otherwise, thanks for listening. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly Sleeper Show.