Week 5 NFL Picks From London with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're about ready to give up our Jets fandom. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in London in the Talk Sport two studios looking at my friend in the Chris Westling podcast studio. It's Cynthia Freeland. The fans demanded it. They said, we.

00:00:20
Speaker 2: Don't want anyone else on the Pick show.

00:00:22
Speaker 1: We want Cynthia, and we want winners, and Cynthia, you're a winner.

00:00:27
Speaker 2: Even if when we picked the Jets we didn't pick.

00:00:29
Speaker 3: Winners, maybe we just need to stop. We might need to boycott picking the Jets in any capacity. If they're going to have that many turnovers and that many penalties, I don't They're just gonna make us look like fools.

00:00:40
Speaker 4: But you know, maybe that's the new rule.

00:00:43
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:00:43
Speaker 1: We are struggling right now at this point in the season, and we're not going to focus on that. What we're gonna do is focus on moving forward. And I gotta say, despite my ugly record and I went one and two again last week, I have not been as confident in.

00:01:01
Speaker 2: Any slate Wow season long.

00:01:04
Speaker 1: I really like three of these picks, and one of these picks is my favorite pick of the entire season. I'm going to save that because I'm curious if you have the same one.

00:01:14
Speaker 2: Wow, why don't you get us going with your first pick.

00:01:16
Speaker 3: Well, I want to get back on the right side of Goods, So I'm going to start with the Bills.

00:01:20
Speaker 4: I think they're going to have.

00:01:21
Speaker 3: They're playing the Patriots at home. I know the division rival. Oh, this might be the one that you like the most. I know division rival situations are what they are, however, and I know the Bills defense has some ability to, you know, give up a bunch of yards. But I don't think Josh Allen is going to let anything too bad happen, especially not at Orchard Park. So I think I can take the Bills, and I believe they're at seven and a half point favorite.

00:01:44
Speaker 4: So I have the Bills by at least.

00:01:45
Speaker 1: Eight the Pats plus eight and a half or whatever it is. It's one of my three. It's one of your three seven and a half. Yeah, it's one of my three. Okay, good And I could change it because I don't like the dooju of the two of us struggling at the same time and then going against each other.

00:02:02
Speaker 3: Right, But it was one win, one of my three Okay, all right, It's fine by me, So I'm fine being on the opposite inside of it.

00:02:11
Speaker 4: I have Buffalo. You think Buffalo is gonna win, though.

00:02:14
Speaker 2: Right, I do the Bills.

00:02:18
Speaker 1: If you look at the last couple of weeks, and I know this is dangerous. We played two of the worst teams in the NFL and the Dolphins. In the Saints they won by ten points and the one by twelve points.

00:02:33
Speaker 2: They did not cover either time.

00:02:36
Speaker 1: I think the Patriots are quietly really good on offense. I think it is a mismatch for the Patriots offense when the Bills defense is on the field.

00:02:46
Speaker 2: Right now, the Bills are making a lot of mistakes.

00:02:49
Speaker 1: I think Drake may is playing well enough that he can keep up in a shootout. I usually don't like going Patriots my heart and my head together, but I truly do believe the Bills have had the easiest schedule in the league essentially, and that the Patriots is the.

00:03:06
Speaker 2: Big game for them.

00:03:08
Speaker 1: They're scheming open, open receivers week after week. I think the running game is starting to get going. I think the Patriots are going to give up a ton of points and the defense is going to be a problem. And the Bills win. But you're telling me I get to get on the winning side of this. If it's forty to thirty four, if it's thirty four to twenty eight, I'm taking that.

00:03:29
Speaker 2: I think the Bills should just be happy to win.

00:03:31
Speaker 1: This is the second best team in their division, division rivalry.

00:03:35
Speaker 3: Cynthia Khan, all Right, I mean, yeah, I'm fine with it. I'm good with it. I'm fine with you know, I'm great. I just think the Bills. Look when I'm looking at the Bills, I like O lines. I like really strong O line play, and no O line has performed better than the Bills. Josh Allen's been under the least amount of pressure. I know Milton Williams is doing well. I know Christian Barmore actually has the highest pressure rate amongst defensive tackles.

00:03:59
Speaker 4: I still don't care.

00:04:00
Speaker 3: I still just think that Josh Allen and what the Bills offense has going for them is just a little too. I don't think they're gonna like cream them. I like that word, I'm gonna bring it back. They're not gonna cream them. But I think eight points, I think nine points is something like that. You said ten to twelve over the past two weeks, just saying.

00:04:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, but that was against the Dolphins and the Saints. You know, they've had a three game homestand it's been a very generous start to the season other than that Ravens game, which is a tough way to start the year, and sound a way to win that Josh Allen in primetime is a little frightening.

00:04:33
Speaker 2: All right, give me your second pick.

00:04:34
Speaker 4: Okay, My second pick is the Colts to win by six and a half.

00:04:38
Speaker 3: More than six and a half. Okay, they're playing the Raiders, they're at home. Six and a half is not a touchdown. That's a good number. There's no see the problem with the Bills one that almost made me not take it with that little hook at the end there, right, and I never want to push it.

00:04:50
Speaker 4: Who No one likes ties. I think ties are stupid.

00:04:53
Speaker 3: So anyways, long story short, six and a half in favor of the Colts. Who you know, look, they almost pulled it off against the Rams. It was a wee weird finished to that game. This is a team that barely punts. Obviously they did it three times in the second half last week. But I just think that the Bills on both sides. Even with Zamie and Howard like surprise retiring, I still think that they have a lot of positive things going on for them on the offense and on the defense, not the least of witches Jonathan Taylor, who only rushed for seventy six yards last game. I know the Raiders held the Bears to something like sixty nine total yards and two in the first half, but I think that's more of a function of the bears lackluster run game than it is the Raiders' ability to really consistently stop them. Say for Max Crosby, who is his You know, we love Max Crosby, so other than the elite Max Crosby, like you run the other way, they have a good opportunity.

00:05:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, the last time the Raiders went, the defense didn't travel with them to Washington.

00:05:50
Speaker 2: It is a much infermatch.

00:05:51
Speaker 1: I do think they get a little juice at home Max Crosby.

00:05:55
Speaker 2: And every Annapolis, That's what I mean.

00:05:59
Speaker 1: So I think on the road, I'm less convinced by this defense, which is not that talented.

00:06:05
Speaker 2: Like they're playing.

00:06:06
Speaker 1: They're one of the only teams out there that just they just play two cornerbacks. They don't really play, they play their three linebackers, they play their two cornerbacks, and the two cornerbacks are Eric Stokes and Q Blue Kelly. And you know, it is very cool Devin White's out there and think about what the line would be, Cynthia if eighty Mitchell hadn't dropped that ball, you know, going into the end zone, and if ady Mitchell hadn't held on a play where he really didn't need to.

00:06:37
Speaker 2: One of the best runs of the year, I think, just pure run.

00:06:39
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor last year had a long touchdown round called back from that holding call. Don't you think the line Let's say they beat the Rams in that game and they're four and oh, wouldn't the line here be like seven and a half or eight?

00:06:51
Speaker 2: Would they really be a different team? I don't think so, right right?

00:06:54
Speaker 4: So I is that one of your three.

00:06:57
Speaker 1: That is not by I'm curious with like numbers, if you see stability that have the Cults shown enough on offense that like now your model see them as real?

00:07:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, And in large part because the combination of an improved O line like they're compared to last year, their O line year every year is better. It's a significant jump and also which you see that mostly in Jonathan Taylor's results, And also what you're seeing from Daniel Jones is his ability. Like I'm not like crowning him some sort of like second like I'm not Indiana. Jones to me is like one of my favorite like action heroes growing up. So I'm not going there yet, But I do think that what we've seen from his is something that we thought we were getting when he became the Giants quarterback, which is from a clean pocket. The man is an extremely accurate passer. Mind blown, Oh my god, But that's what we're actually seeing, right, We just when he doesn't have a clean pocket, things do go wonkyar. They go sideways more often. You saw that with two picks against the Rams when they were bringing back pressure, so that it does happen. But you know, I think that their ability to keep him clean, especially in a game like that, the readers aren't bringing a lot of pressure when they blitz. There are near the bottom of the league in terms of the amount of pressure they get from the blitz. So these are circumstances where Daniel Jones is set up to succeed. The good news is he can succeed when he's in the rate circumstance like this is a good thing. You know, he doesn't need to be Indiana Jones for that. He could just be Daniel Jones for that.

00:08:23
Speaker 4: You know.

00:08:24
Speaker 1: I mean he's not really embracing the Indiana Jones thing. You know, one thing Daniel Jones is not. But he doesn't. You know, he's just not a lot he could. He's a little more fun to watch, but he didn't really like the Danny Dimes things. He just seems like a serious, nice, young gentleman who's been scarred a little bit by being the quarterback for the New York Times.

00:08:45
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be honest with this.

00:08:47
Speaker 3: I saw him in a in a social setting, and he's a little more fun. I think he's just I think I think I think he's uh. I think he's maybe perhaps growing up in the NFL in New York has made him more structured around where he you know, he wasn't like doing anything crazy or not. But he was fun to talk. He was engaging, and he was he was a good chat.

00:09:06
Speaker 4: He was a good hang.

00:09:07
Speaker 3: You know, nothing like nothing crazy, nothing, no weird stories, nothing. We're just like, oh, that's a cool guy, great, cool you know, a little more.

00:09:15
Speaker 2: Personality, Dimes after dark.

00:09:17
Speaker 4: Dimes after dark in the last one.

00:09:20
Speaker 2: It's happening.

00:09:22
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going with a big upset on our show game debut. I'm not in La so I'm not part of the show, but I do need to make the picks.

00:09:30
Speaker 2: It is not my my favorite pick of the year, but I.

00:09:32
Speaker 4: Do like it.

00:09:34
Speaker 1: I'm having the Broncos win in Philadelphia. We don't need that to happen for this purpose. But they are four and a half point favorites in Philadelphia.

00:09:45
Speaker 2: I love it.

00:09:45
Speaker 3: No, they are four and a half point dogs, right, dogs, right, all right? So yeah, you get four and a half points, that's right.

00:09:52
Speaker 2: Love it. The way that Eagles are playing right now. They're not a complete team.

00:09:58
Speaker 1: And and you look for surprise teams when you look for, oh, who could have a longer playoff run than you expect?

00:10:05
Speaker 2: I bet your model does it. I do it.

00:10:07
Speaker 1: You look to line play right now, Broncos still have one of the best offensive lines in the entire league. Meanwhile, the Eagles can't get consistent pass rush. They're sending more blitzes than they want to. It's really a one dimensional type of pass rush. They're not getting as much heat off the edge. And then you flip it around and you got my guy, Nick Benito. All sorts of pressure, Jonathan Cooper, all sorts of pressure. They're playing fantastic and they're going up against an Eagles offensive line that right now, in terms of pass rush win rate, a pass block win rate, in terms of run block win rate, is way worse than average.

00:10:48
Speaker 2: I'm really stunned to see it.

00:10:49
Speaker 1: And I think you pet meet the hoods and some of the advanced numbers say these teams are even, or maybe the Broncos are a little better.

00:10:58
Speaker 2: For instance, they're highering DVA right now, they're nine, Eagles are twelve.

00:11:02
Speaker 1: To me, these are two even teams where they are right now, so four and a half points. I like the Broncos to go in, maybe make a statement and go ahead and win it.

00:11:10
Speaker 2: But I don't even need them to do that. Just keep it close.

00:11:13
Speaker 3: I'm actually with you on the keeping it close. I think I have the Eagles by one point. That's where the model I set it out, so therefore I'm on the same side. The other thing, the fun fact on this one is Jonathan Cooper actually helped recruit JK.

00:11:26
Speaker 4: Dobbins. They went to Ohio State together, so Coop.

00:11:29
Speaker 3: I'm not cool enough to call him that, but Coop brought in JK, which was a cool kind of a cool fact. It kind of shows you what it's like to be on that team a little bit, especially now that we've seen JK. Dobbins and the run game be a source of strength. If I were to tell you that the stronger okay, not like, let's remove the tush push from the equation, but the team with the stronger run game through four games is like in terms of yards per game and yards per carry right now, guess which team it is. It's not the one with sakuon Barkley. Like that's a wild thing to like it almost feels like I'm lying when I'm seeing that, but I'm not. But they're getting a lot of production out of those running backs, are getting ten plus yard plays at a higher clip than the Eagles so far. You take the toush push out, which is like gold, right, that works ninety percent of the time, It works on a hundred percent of whatever it is, but like you know, it works really well, and you're you're getting a lot of production from them in the run game, which helps to set up their good defense to kind of overcome some of the hurdles that bo Nix has had with turnovers so far yet this season.

00:12:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, bo Nix is my concern in this game. But yeah, the running game in terms of the success rate. Again, I trust the Broncos a little more and I do it, but my very unscientific method. I feel like the Broncos deserve to be three and two, yep. And I feel like the Eagles don't deserve to be five and oh, they should be four and one.

00:12:46
Speaker 2: So that's why it'll come together. By the way, I saw John Gonzales over here in London.

00:12:52
Speaker 4: Oh, I didn't know he was friend of the show.

00:12:54
Speaker 2: He's just out here watching soccer.

00:12:57
Speaker 1: And he showed me a leg tattoo that his friend has of the play design of the toush push on his leg and the man has to shave the hair off his leg so that everyone can see the toush push that the man will remain nameless. I don't know if he wants that out there, but it is in this amazing sight.

00:13:17
Speaker 4: Is someone that I know, No, it's.

00:13:20
Speaker 2: Not someone that you know, but it is someone some moderately public like media figure. So got it. I'll just leave it at that. All right, you got your third pick.

00:13:30
Speaker 3: Okay, First off, tattoos are great. Love a tattoo. I have a tattoo or two tattoos in fact, but I don't like when it involves shaving anything. If you if you can't, like just like on your head. No, no, no place is that anyways. So that's my personal thought on because.

00:13:48
Speaker 1: At some point, like if he doesn't shave it, it'll just be like the toush push in real weird in like a garden, yeah, natural grass.

00:13:56
Speaker 2: I guess would is.

00:13:58
Speaker 3: This person from Philly because like people from phil a different breed of course, of course, yeah, they're all a different breed, even Colleen, who I love very dearly, she is a different breed and she's you know, from Philly.

00:14:07
Speaker 2: So it's not it's not Colleen. It's not calling.

00:14:10
Speaker 3: No, it's not I can I get confirm it's not Colleen. I work with her every week.

00:14:14
Speaker 4: Okay, so my last pick.

00:14:17
Speaker 3: I have some some consternation over this one, but I think that even though I have the Chargers winning, I want to take Washington with the field goal of points. Did I say that right with three points right, so Washington plus three, I do have the Chargers winning, but it's very close, which means to me the opportunity.

00:14:35
Speaker 4: I love good o line play. And when you have to replace, you have to replace. Now.

00:14:40
Speaker 3: Rashawn Slater, Joe All, Rashawn Slater her before the season, Joe All moves over to the left. Joell's doing great on the left. He's taking single pressure like he's handling his business. Now you have him, got love a good Austin decklist moment. The kid told me at the East West Triangle how he likes to eat alligator. He's from Louisiana. But good for him? Is me mas gram or whatever she made it for me? Like he's he's a great kid, doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be able to handle this Washington front bringing pressure at the third highest rate in the league. That's just a mismatch to me. That means a closer, potential game could come down to a field goal. Something weird happening. We know Justin Herbert doesn't turn the ball over more often, but with more pressure that could happen. Those are the types of things that I look for.

00:15:21
Speaker 1: It's so funny that you pick this game, both this game and the Browns. If I'm throwing in some extra picks, would be my extra picks, kind of like the Browns here in London plus three and a half more?

00:15:32
Speaker 4: Are there more? Wish?

00:15:33
Speaker 2: Mic was not sure yet London.

00:15:36
Speaker 1: It's it's not like Dublin where it takes over the city. It's also still only Thursday, but you know, it's like having the Super Bowl in New York. So when I get they're going to have some NFL events this weekend. Obviously, once we get to the game, we'll see. I would suspect the Vikings fans will travel better. There were more Vikings fans last week in Dublin than I expected. But I do like the Browns and quick Commanders. Man, the Chargers up front are giving up pressure at just an outrageous.

00:16:07
Speaker 3: Ro per last week to the Giants. I mean, the Giants are really good upfront, but that's that's a lot.

00:16:13
Speaker 1: And a lot of it's on the interior too. It's it's it's Bradley Boseman. It's one of their starters who's really struggling. And that's where the Commanders are pretty good. You get Jade Daniels back for this game. Commander's defense has been a little up and down, but the offense, whether it's Mariota or Jade Daniels, has been really good.

00:16:31
Speaker 2: I think they're catching the Chargers at the right time.

00:16:34
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about taking the Commanders straight up either way. I like you there, Okay, enough preamble, I pick of the year, pick of the year. You actually well so far. You actually got to call the one nine hundred number to get my pick of the year. And the other picks I gave you were all free, but you've got to you got to call one nine hundred triple g h.

00:16:56
Speaker 5: No, don't call that. It's it's home against Oh yeah, it's Seattle at home against the Buccaneers. I think Seattle might be the best team in the league. I think they have the best defense in the league. They've had the best special teams.

00:17:10
Speaker 4: In the league.

00:17:12
Speaker 1: Everything is really balanced. They have extra rest. I like that that they're coming off the Thursday night game. I know they have not been a good home team. The Buccaneers Cynthia were so banged up on Wednesday they held a walk through and Todd Bowles half joked, yeah, we had more you know players that weren't going to practice than were available to practice, so we just held a walk through. I mean, there's not going to be Mike Evans in this game. We don't expect Bucky Irving. We know that the right side of the offensive line was a mess last week. They might be missing two cornerbacks in terms of Jamel Dean is her and then his backup Benjamin Morrison is her. And even if they were healthy, I like the Seahawks and this game because I like the Seahawks right now, and so to me, this is actually a mismatch. I would go up to six seven points on this and like the Seahawks in this specific week. The Bucks will get better, they'll get healthier, they won't have the rest disadvantage eventually. But I really love Seattle, and I know my picks haven't been good this year. But if I I'm gonna know anything this year, this pick is going to be right, Cynthia, I better get this right.

00:18:26
Speaker 3: Well, the nine hundred number is riding on it, so no, I'm I'm actually with you on this one. You know, it's very tricky with injury reports coming out when you don't know who's playing to pick like to me, I feel very confident that Seattle win. I don't know where the line will land, like I think by the time the game starts, I don't know what it will be. So if it's what three and a half, now, what is it three and a half, four and a half, something like that.

00:18:49
Speaker 2: It's three, it's.

00:18:50
Speaker 3: Three, as I would imagine, and so perhaps that's smart.

00:18:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, if it gets.

00:18:59
Speaker 2: It was less before.

00:19:01
Speaker 1: To be fair, Julian Love and Devin Witherspoon have been out of practice for the Seahawks, so they have some injury issues. But the thing I love about their defense is they have players at every level. They're really cohesive. Every week you kind of know what you're getting. They're gonna make you work to get touchdowns. Can the Buccaneers with that group go on these long touchdown drives without Baker making a big mistake and without a running game that hasn't really been good all season, like, I don't think they can well.

00:19:31
Speaker 3: And also they're rushing the passer with just four so if you can drop guys back into coverage, that will help soften the blow should they be missing a Devin Witherspoon or whatnot. Because if you don't have to bring five or more pass rushers. You can drop more into coverage, so that will help with you know, the a Mechabukahs of the world. What are you smiling about? What are you laughing at me before?

00:19:52
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm just thinking about how Yeah, the nine hundred number depends on it. Yes, And look, we're not We're not just here, Cynthia for the picks because the picks haven't been perfect this year. We're here for the information, yep. And we're here for the hang like Danny Dimes.

00:20:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, after dark, great hang.

00:20:14
Speaker 1: Like we're a good time together, even when we're in different countries, different continents. The sun of Cynthia Freeland like shines through the camera.

00:20:25
Speaker 2: So I appreciate you.

00:20:27
Speaker 3: I appreciate you, and you know, it's it's kind of amazing. I'm so glad you're coming to us from the future. That actually probably makes your picks better, just saying, you know, because you already know what's going to happen.

00:20:35
Speaker 2: That's true.

00:20:36
Speaker 1: The line has moved actually here, but not back there. We aren't done this week, by the way, Cynthia check her out game debut.

00:20:47
Speaker 2: It's on on Friday.

00:20:48
Speaker 1: But there's there's reairs throughout the weekend, including on Sunday Morning with Patrick Claibon.

00:20:54
Speaker 2: She's got her YouTube show Numbers Games.

00:20:57
Speaker 1: She's also doing a show with the thirty third team that on our YouTube channel with Logan Ryan. Check that all out and guess what, NFL Daily's not done for the week.

00:21:07
Speaker 2: While we're overseas. We got to justify the trip.

00:21:10
Speaker 1: If they're gonna send me over here, we're gonna do some extra shows. So we're gonna drop an extra show in the feed with one of my favorite football voices in the entire world. Is It's Ollie Connolly and he is just so sharp, and we're gonna go through some of the biggest surprises of the twenty twenty five seasons. So that will drop in the feed on Saturday. Until then, we will see you. And the next time I see you, Cynthia, we'll be.

00:21:36
Speaker 2: Back in Los Angeles next week. I cannot wait that