Late-Round Perspectives: Jake Ciely

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Speaker 1: Jake Seely is a senior fantasy writer at the Athletic and host of the All In Speed Run podcast.

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Speaker 2: Many may know him as the all in Kid.

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Speaker 1: He'll rank just about anything, he loves duct tails, he once owned a deli, and you're better off not asking him.

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Speaker 2: To join a league with kickers.

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Speaker 1: These are his Late Round perspectives. I've teamed up with DraftKings to kick off Week one. Head over to DraftKings. Deposit five dollars and get rewarded with one DFS ticket for Week one and play free for your shot at a.

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Speaker 2: Share of millions.

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Speaker 1: The ticket reward amount varies and is based on deposit, but make sure you sign up with promo code Late Round today. Gambling problem called one hundred gambler eight seven seven eight Hope n Y protects Hope NY to four six seven three six nine in New York. Help us available with problem gambling called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seventy seven or visit CCPG dot organ Connectic eighteen plus most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility short to supply void were prohibited one per customer, minimum five dollars deposit, require ticket rewards or say credits ONLYTHALLID for use on eligible DFS contests, ticket rewards or single use and expire nine to eight twenty five at eight twenty pm Eastern. See terms at draftings dot com. Slash promotions sponsored by Draftings. Now back to the show. Do you listen to a lot of like fantasy podcasts and stuff or are you more so just like I just stay, just do my thing, and then I just kind of consume other media outside of this.

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Speaker 3: So it's gonna sound so mean being in the industry, but ninety percent now I try to dip in a little bit. Like I obviously have listened to you. I listened Chris Harris at Alfredo with this series which I think which you're about to talk about. Yes, but the biggest reason and I think I don't want to speak for you, but I feel like you do the same thing is like I don't want to cloud my opinion too much. I want to have mine in place, and then I just go and like, hey, I'll check this one out this week, and maybe I miss something.

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Speaker 1: Right exactly, it's more so for me, like of course you want to support you know, friends and stuff in the space and whatnot.

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Speaker 2: But I also just none of that.

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Speaker 1: But I kind of want to break from, you know, all this stuff that we're doing twenty four to seven, Like I just want to kind of veg out and just think about something else. But I was listening to anyone who hasn't done so Alfredo Brown, friend of the show. He started doing the Pretend GM podcast again and he was bringing on different analysts. I was on, you were on, and he talks more about like process and life and not just fantasy football stuff. So to me, I'm like, oh, I have friends that are being interviewed. I want to hear the kind of crazy things that they're going to say on this show. Right, And I listened to I listened to parts of your episode, and you know what, I completely forgot that you owned a deli.

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Speaker 2: I completely forgotten that.

00:02:47
Speaker 1: Was because when when when we first I mean we've known each other for like over a decade basically now, Yeah, and when I first met you, I feel like it was around the time that you would have you would have owned the deli, right, was right around that time, actually, I think it was close to closing. It's funny you bring in Delhi like that's the reason you say I want to digest other things. It's like I always compare to if you're a butcher and then you have to come home and eat steak.

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Speaker 3: For dinner every night.

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Speaker 2: It's like, yeah.

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Speaker 3: Like it's not. The last thing I want to do is just do more of this, right, but you kind of need that break. But yeah, it was a Delhi was also the ill fated wonderful football dot Com.

00:03:22
Speaker 2: Do you remember that from back in the day.

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Speaker 4: That's actually one of my first overlaps. I forgot about football dot com that completely, like like it was just out of my memory. Wait, didn't I do stuff in football dot com?

00:03:34
Speaker 2: Also? Yes, yes it was. It was you, me and Denny for a little while and then we forgot.

00:03:42
Speaker 1: How pathetic is it that I did work for a website.

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Speaker 2: I don't even remember doing it. Somebody have to remind me about it last year.

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Speaker 3: It's like, oh, yeah, the biggest waste of a ur L in the history of everything.

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Speaker 5: Oh my gosh, this is like mind blowing to me that this is like this is not even like I have a decent memory for stuff like that, right, none, zero, no memory of football dot Com.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm assuming it's not even close to a thing anymore. Yeah, like like as it's not really and it's all soccer. Okay, that makes sense, Yeah that makes the actual football. Man. Yeah, they had this great url and that nothing happened with it?

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Speaker 2: Man, was it just who else? Was Was it just us three? You said me?

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Speaker 3: And there was one or two other people I don't even remember now and either the guy I'm spacing on the guy who brought me over with you guys, because it was like us three trying to do the majority of it. And I remember like both of you and Darre are like, man, this is ridiculous. They're just throwing so much at our plate just for nothing, and like not you know, you want to get your foot in the door.

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Speaker 2: But it was that was. Yeah.

00:04:46
Speaker 3: If you want to see how to poorly run a website, they go back and somehow resurrect.

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, after this, I'm gonna have to Twitter search like my handle with football dot com and see if there was a see if there's anything out there to see like what I was saying and stuff. And then the other thing to talk about is is your your your gaming background and the sixteen bit stuff like where did where did that come? Like, is this just a nostalgia thing for you or is it like are you still are you still crushing like sixteen big games on the regular?

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Speaker 3: Not on the regular as much anymore, you know, finally getting a wife after twenty years kind of curve that.

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Speaker 2: A little bit.

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Speaker 3: You were actually also a part of that wonderful yeah sixteen bit and under video game draft that we did back in the day.

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Speaker 2: Oh I do okay, I do remember that that you remember that one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the pretty strong team. Yeah, So this is just this is my personality. That's why I did it. So it originally started off with when back in the day of football dot Com and the Deli worlds, is, you know, doing video and be like, hey, maybe I shouldn't just have this blank white wall behind me. Yeah, And it was like I got a few fun CODs. I got like a giant's helmet back when I used to care about the giants. And then it just hits snowballed. It turned into this. It just kept adding to it, kept padding to it, and like look, yeah, and that's the thing is like, you know, I've seen the comments. I've seen people who are like I'm not listening to some guy that looks like he lives in a is you know, mom's basement or sure you know it's still a twelve year old. And I'm like, well if you don't, but that's me, that's me. So I'm just embracing it.

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Speaker 2: No, I love that. What's your what's your?

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Speaker 1: If if you were to just rank top one to three, like sixteen bit type, you know, most likely side scrolling type games, where what would you go with side scrolling? So you mixed it up with the side you originally what doesn't be sides throwing? I just I just assumed that was the direction you might go in. But just any top three because legend isld a link to the pasta that's always top, top top, and then Mario Brothers three, and then I don't.

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Speaker 3: Know what's a good third to me?

00:06:41
Speaker 1: Sub Mario Brothers three is my go to, Like that's the It's so timeless, so so nice, so easy.

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Speaker 3: Oh my Mega man two.

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Speaker 1: I'm always were you were you sn e s over Sega back in the day.

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Speaker 3: I was, But I had everything I actually have. I have a jail broken one of those Mini s any ones, but the one of the ones that I got them off eBay, so it has all Nintendo, all Super Nintendo, all Genesis, all Atari, like everything you could possibly want on it, including that wonderful Turtles game, which gave us anxiety trying to get through that swim level with the oh my gosh, sped up right impossible. No, the only way I got through it was at the game Genie.

00:07:23
Speaker 2: It's that level.

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Speaker 1: And you know what the other impossible level was was the Magic Carpet ride in Aladdin. Why was that so hard? It shouldn't have been a hood And then you know, another hard game. And I actually heard I know that we're getting way off track here, but I heard a story about this. This might be someone can fact check me. But did you ever play the Lion King game that that came out like in like you know, like around the time the movie came out and did?

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Speaker 3: But I never played all the way through it?

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Speaker 1: Right, So evidently they made it really really hard on purpose because they wanted people to rent it and not be able to beat it and then go buy it.

00:07:57
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I thought you were gonna say additional wow, but like yeah, yeah, And apparently it worked from a from a business model standpoint, like people actually did get really frustratedly and there was some really insane things that you had to do in that game that that was.

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Speaker 2: It was like, it's just so bizarre.

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Speaker 1: Though. You get these these children movies and these kids movies and Aladdin and Lion King, and then they make the games freaking impossible.

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Speaker 3: I will say the only satisfying one was Battle Toads finally getting through the speeder bike level.

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Speaker 2: Exactly.

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Speaker 1: It's notoriously like the Heart one of the hardest games like ever.

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Speaker 3: It is, but you eventually memorize it after doing it seven and.

00:08:33
Speaker 2: Fifty exactly, exactly. All right, I want to I want to shift to our folks a little bit to football.

00:08:40
Speaker 1: Here. My first question to you, I like to ask this when people first hop on perspectives, But how would you sort of describe yourself as.

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Speaker 2: An analyst anyone who hasn't listened to you and read your work.

00:08:49
Speaker 1: Would you say you're more numbers driven, you're more film driven, Like what's your process?

00:08:53
Speaker 2: Like, you know, we're about to start the season.

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Speaker 1: I mean we're for the record, we're recording this before the Thursday night game, so this will be out on Friday.

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Speaker 2: Hope we won't talk too much about you know, those teams tonight.

00:09:02
Speaker 1: But even if we do, you guys now know, But are you analyzing this stuff in spreadsheets more or you know by by watching or a mix.

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Speaker 2: Of the both.

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Speaker 3: It's actually almost fifty to fifty. I hate to make that the answer, but for everybody, the explanations behind it is, I watch, I believe what I see. I believe what I know. I don't think I'm the best watcher in no business, Like I actually give that to Emory Hunt. I think he's the best scout in the business. But like, I recognize there's a ton of people out there who watch and know football even better than I do. But I've watched enough that, like I know things, and then I use the numbers to go back and kind of fact check myself. Like you know, I go through and like find the metrics throughout the week, and I go independently, like so I watch everything, I make notes on Sunday, Monday, the other days and stuff like that. But then once like we have access to true media, there's a million sites out there we can go through. But then I go through and like look for outliers, and then I go through and look for things that maybe were important to me, Like oh, I didn't expect Blank to do this week. Let me go see if the numbers are matching up with I think, and then I'll go back and readjust so my like custom projection spreadsheet in the preseason. It's like for people that don't believe me, and like, hey, I don't believe your target share, I want to change it. And that's kind of why I created it, is because I don't think any of us are one hundred percent. No, none of us are one hundred percent right, But I like to go back and forth. So to say my rankings, so to speak, would be like this is what I feel, go through my projections and the metrics and all that type of stuff, come back to my rankings, run it through one more time, and then that's where I get my final results. Kind of like going back and forth and back and forth and back and forth.

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Speaker 1: I always hesitate asking that question because I think most people will have some I mean they should have some mix, right, I mean it might be more like eighty twenty or something like that. But like you know, like Chris Harris doesn't is going to be more you know you mentioned him at the top of the show.

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Speaker 2: He'll be more film I'll be more data.

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Speaker 1: But it's not like like people are like shocked when they learn that. I watch I literally throughout the week, then watch every game from the previous week, and it's like, yeah, I mean it's my job. I don't want to sound like a moron when I'm on these podcasts and stuff, you know, So you know, I just I just like to sort of, you know, establish you know where you're coming from with some of these takes before we really dig in. But now that drafts are finished, I'm assuming that are you done drafting?

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Speaker 2: Officially done drafting? That you have anymore?

00:11:19
Speaker 3: No, I always try to make sure I don't have anything come Labor Day, just because I want to hone in on Week one. By the way, real quick credit to you. JJ sent me the guide and I actually read through and even that because I know you lean more towards metrics, and I fact checked myself on some of the rookies. Just give you an examples, so I even like look to other people as well.

00:11:37
Speaker 2: Thank you. I appreciate that, man, I appreciate that.

00:11:39
Speaker 1: But now that that drafts are are over, what's one strategy that you saw a lot of other teams use this year? You know, it could be something that you feel really confident in, or maybe even not, because I think that there's a lot you know, there's a lot of directions you can go here, But what's one strategy that other teams used that you think was just not right? You really couldn't understand why people were approaching their drafts in that manner.

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Speaker 3: I can never get on board with this. I have come around to saying, you know what, if you want to go elite quarterback in round four, maybe round three, depending on your setup. If you want to go elite tight end, I always reference the Travis Kelcey years of like you need to be a top ten wide receiver to make that first round, let alone the second round, or I should say second let alone first round value warranted. And I don't have a problem going either direction if you want to do one, like I said, late third, early fourth, and of course I'm coming for your Twitter handle with that, but I know you've changed throughout the years and flexible. Yeah, but anyway, it's when they double tap it. Like I even tried it once just to see, like, hey, maybe I can get into this and see if there's some type of way where like you know you have that leg up at both and your team can come out in a good shape. And I just don't see it being in a good shape because you've sacrificed what we know. When you go early quarterback or early tight end, you're sacrificing your running back, wide receiver. You're playing catch up. You offset it by having that quote unquote advantage, the fact that that advantage has to be so stark for to pay off, and when you double tap it, now you're basically buying in saying I'm going to have a quarterback that scores three to four more points than most. Everybody else looks at two teams, same thing at tight end, and if it just doesn't hit, you're looking at your team. And I got to the eighth round, I'm like, man, I'm still trying to play catch up with my running backs and wide receivers, and I just I cannot buy into it.

00:13:23
Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I feel like the only time I had a discussion with Sean Siegel about this on A Perspective's episode, because this year felt like there was that like dead spot in like round three ish, like middle of round three and into like round four, and that's where I was like Okay, I can get that's around the time where I can get behind like quarterback and whatnot if you want to go that direction. But you know, it's very, very difficult to take on that opportunity cost when it's multiple one ze positions like that.

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Speaker 2: It's just you feel.

00:13:50
Speaker 1: So far behind and you not only need the quarterback and tight end to hit, but now because you're behind at wide receiver, running back, you need those positions to hit right like, because realistically you're now you know, two rounds behind with some of these wide outs or running backs, and so the guys that you did get early you need them to hit or else then you're really falling back and you don't have the depth to be able to make up for it. So yeah, I mean you see it every year. You see a lot in home leagues and stuff like that, and you probably can get away with it more in some home league environments you know, ten team leagues and stuff, just because they're shallower. But yeah, I think that's a good call out that it's just really really tough to come back from. Is there a player in your draft so you seem to walk away with seemingly in like every draft, So there.

00:14:37
Speaker 3: Was a couple like Travion Henderson until late until everybody started doing it, a lot of Matthew Golden and Cedric Tillman and just because of last year, but the one that is the most and as I say this, he's in my thirties for wide receivers because he has a terrible Week one matchup. And I even said be patient if you don't draft him, maybe go throughout a little bawl after after Week one because Calvin Ridley faced the broncos I was gonna say, it's gotta be Ridley, right, You're gonna guess one hundred percent. And like the fact is, it's not just certain, like we can look at wide receivers and understand teams will move them around. You can avoid corners to a certain degree. Volume can offset it. But it's also when you had that team around a corner like certain that you're gonna be like, Okay, maybe maybe we will walk into a two for forty for one week, but the schedule overall is good. And the continued thing that I kept saying is like we were so excited Terry McLaurin with Jada McDaniels last year and Bo Nix and what he did for Courtland Sutton, and it's like, I know not a lot of people are like super high on cam Ward, but if you look at his profile and the way that he's throwing the deep ball, already doing it in the preseason and practices, and the fact that last year Calvin Ridley was a wide receiver three on one hundred and twenty targets with only four red zone and one end zone target the entire year. Crazy And this schedule is just their for him after this week where it's not many more threats throughout the season, a lot of games that were projecting I put down clothes projecting to be potential shootout. And as cam Ward, he's going to be aggressive with a nice these deep bowl and I think Calvin Ridley, here's the shocking stat.

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Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley's never had a thousand yard season. I was shocked to see that, Like, yeah, see, I would have bet money at least one. Yeah, that's pretty crazy. That's pretty crazy.

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Speaker 3: So I have a ton of Calvin Ridley mostly because you were getting a wide receiver three or four cost Yeah, and I'm like this is somebody could be a wide receiver two.

00:16:24
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:16:24
Speaker 1: Something's really because like I've done shows and talked about how you know, obviously rookie quarterbacks they impact their pass catchers in a negative way versus a regular veteran quarterback just because they don't throw the ball as much on those teams and they're not gonna be as efficients, they're not going to score as many touchdowns. However, However, because I have Ridley as a player to target in the draft guy this year, if you look at the wide outs who have emerged and become like top twenty four, top twelve wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks since like twenty eleven or so, the average target share of the top twenty four guys, there's like fourteen of them or something like that, but the average target share among those guys is twenty six percent. So essentially, like like, if a wide receiver ends up emerging and being fine with a rookie quarterback, it's because there's a lack of competition slash. He's just getting peppered with targets on his team, right, like a Keenan Allen or like a Reggie Wayne or whoever.

00:17:16
Speaker 2: And there's getting peppered with targets.

00:17:18
Speaker 1: And you look at Tennessee and this is a situation, seems like a situation where that would be the case. Like I think that Calvin Ridley could inch towards like a thirty percent target share this year, Like like realistically, you know, I like ELC, I am inner, but like we can't just like assume that he's gonna take on a massive target share. I love Chicka konk Will, but we don't, you know, we can't make these assumptions with guys who are not locked in. We can say we'll draft them versus cost, but you know, I just I wouldn't be shocked if we's like, like he could easily be top five in the league.

00:17:46
Speaker 2: And target share.

00:17:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, oh, one hundred percent. And real quick to backtrack, as people are probably screaming right now at your podcast, I trip myself. One hundred receptions, not a thousand yards. I went, okay, there, I was thinking of it. Yeah, so that sounds a little bit more reasonable. But yeah, I never one hundred receptions.

00:18:00
Speaker 2: Who was high was.

00:18:01
Speaker 3: Ninety and it was that year that he like blew up for the Falcons, obviously, but hundred receptions everybody, not yours, but yes, and that's the biggest thing. And I was my mind was jumping ahead. Is that target share there? I'm with you. I was a fan of au Manner. I did a free guys article. I do it every year over at the Athletic where it's like the guys in the fourteenth, fifteenth, even undrafted rounds, and au Manner was there and I was like, Hey, all he needs to do is get past Tyler Lockett, who looked pretty washed last year and Van Jefferson, who has two games a year. Well, here's the good news. He's already passed Van Jefferson. But your point being is au Manner is not a first round talent like and we can be excited about that at CONKU. We kind of wanted that to happen after his rookie season because of the efficiency, but he's kind of still a conque. Like you look up and down this depth chart, And for all the arguments people are making to be on McMillan and his target share volume with the Panthers, why aren't we doing the exact same thing for Ridley? So I'm with you on that.

00:18:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:18:54
Speaker 1: Is there a player that you wish you drafted more, but you just you just seem to not be able to pull the trigger. Maybe because there's other players around him, you know, just that you that you liked a little bit more.

00:19:05
Speaker 3: So I just said McMillan, he had tedor Roe. McMillan was actually one of them, mostly because of course three or four weeks ago, there was a lot more competition for him there, and I was like, well, maybe he doesn't get to one hundred and forty targets. Maybe this isn't Malik Neighbors. And also Bryce Young being part of it is like I'm I'm an apologist for Bryce Young. But at the same time, I acknowledged so far throughout his career he's been much better than the intermediate game. So I was worried about a dot. I was worried about how many are catchable. I could have seen a Calva Ridley liked season for him, which is still good. It's just people wanted to take him aside the top twenty. But the biggest one in this has to do with the quarterback situation, and like I was just not drafting Tyler Warren. I actually did a show a month ago and it was like takes on the season, and then I was like, one of them is we won't have a single rookie tight end one this year. We've been way too spoiled the last two seasons. Well that was before Daniel Jones in his intermediate game, took over at quarterback and he's just gonna pepper the heck out of Tyler Warren. So for differing reasons, I just did. And Tyler Warren being especially in that seventh eighth round is like, that's usually where I'm loading back up on wide receivers or running back. That fell. So to your point, it was more about the names that were there that I didn't want to invest, and he never made it to me. But now I'm definitely like, well, I wish I would have had a few more.

00:20:22
Speaker 2: I have like one share.

00:20:23
Speaker 3: McMillan and one share of Warren, and I'm like, I wish I had more.

00:20:25
Speaker 1: Now, Yeah, No, Look, the Tyler Warren thing is really interesting to me because I, you know, I was drafting it because I you know, I did tons of Best Ball drafts and stuff, and I was drafting him when he was like a tenth round pick and it was easy. But he got on draftings like he got like late sixth adp like towards the end of the of the off season and I couldn't get there, and I you know, I'm on Twitter and stuff, and I see really respected analysts who I adore, like saying like really really great things about Tyler Warren And look, I liked him as a prospect.

00:20:55
Speaker 2: I like Colson Lovelin.

00:20:55
Speaker 1: As a prospect, and if they tested I would have probably liked them even more were able to show off their athleticism a little bit. But I also look at Indianapolis and I say to myself, Okay, if you're gonna be in on Tyler Warren, like, I get the upside case because he's good. But at the same time, I like Michael Pittman's been a target machine since he's been there, right, twenty five percent target chairs basically like yearly for him and.

00:21:21
Speaker 2: Then Josh Downs.

00:21:22
Speaker 1: Last year, only Pouka and Aa Kua and Moliku neighbors were better in target's perrow run than Josh Downs. I mean, like, you have two really really solid target getters, and historically we've seen tight ends break out when they are a top two option.

00:21:37
Speaker 2: You know, within their offense.

00:21:38
Speaker 1: And then you know, we're also talking Daniel, Like I agree that Daniel Jones is definitely definitely the better fit for Tyler Warren.

00:21:45
Speaker 2: I wish I had more season long Tyler Warren.

00:21:47
Speaker 1: But it just got to the point towards the end of the you know, towards the end of the draft season, where like it was just hard for me to pull the trigger based on where he was going. But I you know, I'm not like I didn't fade, but like you, it just got to a point it seemed like where it seemed like the hype was just getting a little bit out of control. And I we could easily, because it is a talented rookie tight end, we could easily look back on this podcast and be.

00:22:10
Speaker 2: Like, man, these guys are idiots, right because he's.

00:22:13
Speaker 1: But situationally, it just it's just doesn't seem like it's there that much, right, Like it just like, are you like even now knowing Danny Dimes is starting for them, Like do you do you think that he's a locked in top six tight end and eighty by you know, in ranks or top top seven, Like are you are you taking him over like TJ Hokinson right now?

00:22:37
Speaker 3: No? And I mean part of that's because Jordan Asden suspended, But Hawkinson's a great one.

00:22:42
Speaker 2: You bring that up.

00:22:43
Speaker 3: Hockinson's season when he was rookie was basically kind of last man standing. Go back to Evan Ingram years and years ago with the Giants last man standing, Sam Laporta, almost everybody else got hurt. And like, that's your point, is that you have to be a top two option to really click. And even that, Daniel Jones, I do think they're going back to Anthony and Richardson at some point, which means, yeah, you stock up for Alec Pierce, but stock down for pretty much anybody else. I think Downs can play with either of them. This is why I took a lot of flyers on Josh Downs late and especially in Best Ball, but I think that he hurts Pittman a little bit less so Downs. But the big winner is Piers, but the big downturn would be for Warren and then the underneath games. So that was part of the reason too. It's just the cost was always so prohibitive, and like I always it's like not like a T shirt or anything like that, but I always say, don't buy all the risk. I feel like Warren, as you said in the sixth round, you're buying everything risk wise and there's almost zero upside left.

00:23:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, especially because that range still has really good wide receivers like that.

00:23:43
Speaker 1: That's that was the hardest part for me, is that I'm sitting there looking at like you know that like these these like Romadoonza and stuff, and I'm like, I can't take Tyler Warren over Romadonza.

00:23:52
Speaker 2: I just can't do it, you know.

00:23:53
Speaker 1: So it was It's been a really weird journey for me with with Warren. You know, I have enough where like if he does have a good season and bast ball, I'm not totally toast, but I do think that some people it got a little out of hand, like I couldn't call him like my my league winning tight end just based on the cost and based I'll based on how how things were changing if you were to give Since you are the all in kid, I'm gonna I'm gonna ask you to give a gray area answer and not an all in answer. What kind of odd just a percent chance? Okay, zero to one hundred that Daniel Jones.

00:24:24
Speaker 2: Let's here.

00:24:25
Speaker 1: I'll send an over under Daniel Jones games played, Okay, and then I'll move it based on how confident and how quickly you answer this, Uh, we'll start at.

00:24:33
Speaker 2: Eight and a half games, hmm under, Oh you go under? Okay, okay, that's where.

00:24:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think do you think that there's a like I could really see a scenario where the Colts Now the one thing that's making me not feel as strong is that I think the division is just up for grabs in general, so like they might be more competitive than we think. But I think there's a chance that like Stich and Anne Jones are both gone at the same time, basically right where where they fire him and and Anthony richards then the new coach steps up, and then Anthony Richardson's just the starter and they see what they have in him, and then that's how the season kind of goes, you know. But I'm with you, like I I'm hesitant to say that that you know, Dimes is gonna be their like seventeen game answer. You know, it's similar to I think like Flacco, Like, who do you think plays more games? Is year Joe Flacco or Daniel.

00:25:21
Speaker 2: Jones If hell's not involve Flacco.

00:25:24
Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, I think so here, Like I'm a conspiracy theorist on this one, and I'm not usually down this road. But here's what, So I think Flacco's basically the quarterback until week fourteen when they decide whether it's Sanders at Gabriel like one of those like we're gonna make it through. You know, maybe they're if they're one and eleven. Maybe it happens a little bit before that, Like I just don't think until like things are toast toast. The thing with Daniel Jones is this is where I went with it. It's like, all right, so if you're styching, you start Anthony and Richardson. He has a bad game, what happens immediately after the game. Are you gonna turn to Daniel Jones next week? Turning to Daniel Jones? Turn it Dania Jones, Turn it Dani Jels. With Daniel Jones, we know who he is. I mean, we saw this in preseason when the beat Reporters the very first seven on seven. I'm sure you remember this. The first day, they're like, Daniel Jones overthrew a wide open Alec Pierce.

00:26:10
Speaker 2: He's the Daniel Jones we've always known.

00:26:12
Speaker 3: So I was saying, like, wait for him to have a bad game or two, then you turn to Anthony and Richardson, he has a bad gamer two.

00:26:18
Speaker 2: It's like, well, we can't go back to Daniel Jones. We know what he is. So there's my conspiracy.

00:26:22
Speaker 3: Theorist of it is that you're just waiting for two bad games for Daniel Jones. You go back to Anthony and Richardson hopefully that you save his career, and if not, you move on and you have a top three pick.

00:26:32
Speaker 5: Yeah.

00:26:32
Speaker 1: I mean that's the thing, like when you're a coach on the hot seat, because I feel the same way.

00:26:36
Speaker 2: With like Brian Dable right in New York. You're a Giants fan, aren't you, right? No, I gave them up.

00:26:41
Speaker 3: So speaking to Daniel Jones as soon as they drafted, I'm like, I'm done with the Giants. I'll give him one year to prove me wrong. And prove me wrong, I'm like, I'm out, I'm done. And then you've watched this organization for the last six years. They do everything possible to make the wrong decision. I will give credit the last two years they're kind of coming around a little bit. But I can't. I can't play this anymore. Plus my fantasy guys, it's hard to root for die.

00:27:03
Speaker 2: I totally, I totally get it.

00:27:04
Speaker 1: I uh. But but like with the Giants, like Brian Dable to me like like he's on the hot seat, like if if things don't like if they don't show some promise this year, then he could easily be gone next year. And so from that perspective, like I think that they're going to have to be more aggressive with a quarterback change because if Jackson Dark comes in and he shows that he's really good, then then Dable can go to the front office be like, see told you he's good, Let me develop.

00:27:27
Speaker 2: Him and we could turn this into something.

00:27:29
Speaker 1: And I feel similarly to like a guy like stich In where it like you're like you're saying, if you start with Anthony Richardson and you need to bench Anthony, you can't go back right, Like you're that that's it's very rare that we see like even like a Bryce Young situation kind of go down where you know, you sit him for a little bit and you know he gets benchmin then I know injury kind of played a role in him coming back and stuff, But like you know that you rarely see that rebound favorably and you'd rather, you know, as a coach, want to end the season, you know, with at least some hope, you know, and you wouldn't be able to do that with Daniel Jones. So I think that's gonna be a very very interesting situation to watch, especially with Tyler Warren. Are you inner route generally this year with the rookie hype. Now I've done an episode. I did an episode in July about how ADP is rising with rookies, like we've seen you know, higher ADPs with running backs and wide receivers. But do you think it's now officially like gotten out of hand or are you still drafting these guys.

00:28:26
Speaker 3: I'd say mostly out of hand, just because it's spilling into questionable situations and people that are buried. That's the issue is that, as you said month, two months ago, I was loving Trevon Henderson in the fifth and sixth round, and then he's all the way up into the third, which, hey, it might work out, but now the opportunity cost again others, you know, RJ. Harvey was actually they were flipped to RJ. Harvey was more in the fourth round immediately after the draft because they're like, oh, new album, Kamara. But it's not just the fact of how deep this running back class is as you know, but they're all falling, like most of them are falling into split backfield where we're kind of hoping we can reject and we're hoping that the younger talent takes over. But as I said, it's like spilling into the wide receivers as well. Even though I'm teasing it, but I do have a hot take that involves a rookie. But anyway, like the IU manner which you brought up, you know, I did a show two weeks ago and I was talking about Kyle Williams and I'm not a huge Kyle Williams fan. I was like, but you know he could develop, and they're like, oh, Kyle Williams tested this and everything like that. Like the dude is like sixth on the depth chart. Let's like he can't even get Kat past Kayshaun Booty, Like, let's relax a little bit. So I think that's where it falls down to. And like the Colston love one one, you know, he's not as high as Tyler Warren, but people wanting to draft Colston Lovelin as a top ten tight end. I'm like, even if he is, which we assume he's passed comment like they have three wide receivers and actually their other rookie is now buried behind Zakiyas, Like you just have to understand the situation. So I say yes, just because I'm okay with the Henderson's, I'm okay with Hampton and all the rest like that. But it's when you start to trickle down to that second level, which most of them are going to need at LEAs tap for a full year before we really see fantasy value.

00:30:03
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:30:03
Speaker 1: I also think that this could be where Best Ball brain had because I get a lot of feedback from people being like, do you think the questions and stuff like do you think that Best Ball is going to change the way that people draft in season long and stuff like that?

00:30:13
Speaker 2: And in Best Ball, you know rookies, people are going to.

00:30:17
Speaker 1: Attack rookies because obviously in Best Ball, playoff weeks are so important, and you you know, don't have the luxury of just like being like, you know what, I'll let Tory Horton, you know, just sit on the waiver wire and I'll I'll just pounce on him earlier than the rest of my league mates.

00:30:29
Speaker 2: You gotta draft the dude, right, And so in Best ball.

00:30:32
Speaker 1: You're drafting these guys and you're elevating them because you know that rookies will you know, come together and be able to give some more production and better performances down the stretch that can half the year, you know, in the fantasy playoffs and stuff. Just historically it's what we've seen, but in a managed season long league, it is a little bit different. Like I've I've kind of tinkered with the idea, and I'll ask you how you kind of handle this, Like Tory Horton's probably a good example because I like Horton, but I also recognize that the chance that he like comes out, you know, on fire or it is pretty slim, like it's probably not gonna happen. I hope it does, but more than likely not gonna happen. And so in those situations, are you, like, let's say that you love Horton or you love elk Ijamanner, right, and now obviously he's he's starting.

00:31:17
Speaker 2: Maybe he's not even that great of an.

00:31:18
Speaker 1: Example, but regardless, like, are you drafting these guys and holding them or are you saying to yourself, Okay, day three, rookies, I know who they are. I've done my research, I feel good about, like their place on this team. I'm just gonna be a week ahead of my league mates, hopefully in adding them off the wire, as opposed to you know, holding onto this roster spot that I'll probably end up dropping some of these guys and then you're gonna regret that towards the end of the year whenever someone else picks them up.

00:31:45
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think that really comes down to, like what is your bench? And you know, I did another article not to be like, oh, look at all my articles, but I did an article that one of the biggest mistakes people make is mismanaging their benches. And it's usually coming out of the draft with a bunch of replaceable options that you can find, i know, waivers every single week. But the other part of it is these handcuff running backs or these upside wide receivers that people draft and then they drop two weeks in. What was the point in drafted? Like, you draft Trey Benson, James Connor is healthy for the two weeks and you drop them. Why did you draft Trey Benson? You should have never drafted them in the first place. So I think that's the question people have to ask themselves because I don't want to give a carte blanche answer because it's like, hey, you know, I have a seven man bench and my home league. I can hold on to Alu manor for half the season and then finally be like, all right, it's not happening. You have a four or five man bench, it might be a little bit different, but I think you have to kind of, you know, create a narrative for yourself, so to speak, or like the narrative of how does it happen? So Tory Horton, I think that's a really good one, because Cooper Cup looks toast. Cooper Cup gets hurt again, all of a sudden, Tory Horton matters, and but that's not going to happen without that. So if four weeks into the season, you know, Cup looks like Cup from even eighty ninety percent of Cup from two or three years ago, and you're like, well, then I could just drop Horton because this is just not gonna happen unless he gets hurt and then, like you said, a week ahead. So it really comes down to I try to wait as long as possible, basically into the buys and like I need to, And that's just my worst player. But if I'm drafting for upside like that, and like the trade bens, it's especially handcuffs, but even higher wide receivers, then it's going to take a lot for me to let go because those guys gonna be a top thirty wide receivers. If everything hits, I go pick up Demaro Douglas. He's gonna be wide receiver forty Like cool, Like, I'll pass them Demaro Douglas to hold on to one if I can put it back.

00:33:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it makes sense.

00:33:32
Speaker 1: We see breakout offenses every year. Are there any offenses that you think are gonna surprise people? Because obviously, if the offense goes off, more than likely multiple players in that offense are gonna be values from an ADP perspective.

00:33:44
Speaker 3: Yeah. So, I don't know if you've heard the Bears are supposed to be good with this Ben Johnson guy, Like, I'm definitely not coming with the Bears. I think the Jaguars would be like a very popular one because we want Trevor Lawrence to be that generational talent that we always thought he was going to be. They have Travis Hunter, Liam Cohen and all the rest. I still have that offensive line like and I'm not an offensive line like evaluator. I trust everything. But when you see multiple sites being like one of the worst, the worst, this is gonna be bad, Like it makes me hesitant a little bit on how much they're gonna break out. And again it's kind of like you said, I lean into more like didn't see coming like you you asked versus, like we know the Jaguars, we know the Bears.

00:34:26
Speaker 2: So there was two that I thought of. I almost said the Panthers.

00:34:29
Speaker 3: But what's after McMillan, Like, you know, I hope we get kind of I would say, bounces back whatever, just better than he was as a rookie. But even after that, it's kind of like, yeah, Jit Tamian Sanders is interesting in a deep league, we get deeply like where's that really gonna go? So call me crazy, I gonna go back to We've already mentioned the quarterback the Browns, like they were going from like one of the worst. But here's where I looked at it is like can I get multiple pieces of fantasy value? So we already know Jerry Judy, we know Joko stays hell healthy, Joe Flacco by the way over forty four hundred yards in his last seventeen starts. Ian Hardest keeps bringing up the fact that you push it all the way up to forty seven hundred if you include playoff starts, it's an insane number. Yeah, so Cedric Tillman involved, and then right out of the gate, this is a rookie that I do like. Is like, I just think Dylan Samson needs more attention, Like I think he can be there Austin Eckler and the consistent option where Jerome Ford is Drome Ford.

00:35:26
Speaker 2: But in a split.

00:35:26
Speaker 3: Backfield, I want the pass catcher. Joe Flacco is going to keep throwing. We've got two wide receivers, a tight end, a running back, and then if Judkins ever shows up, like Ford's a fine RB three, but if Jenkins' situation ever clears out, we know he has top twenty upside, and then Joe Flacco can be a streamer, Like, hell, you want to stream him this week?

00:35:43
Speaker 2: And to stream him over c J. Stroud and Caleb Williams go right ahead. Yeah, Yeah, I mean I think he's a legit option this week.

00:35:50
Speaker 1: And it's crazy to say that for a forty year old, you know, quarterback but yeah, I mean, like if you look at it from a value perspective, I get it.

00:35:57
Speaker 2: I was.

00:35:58
Speaker 1: I was more into Tillman than you you know from it from a value perspective this season, just because I mean Tilman last year, that final month he had like a twenty two percent target share in that offense, right like he was getting used and he should more likely to still be used, you know, just given what they have around him, and then that backfield. I think that you know, we'll probably see Jerome Ford, like get just because he's.

00:36:20
Speaker 2: The veteran, and they'll they might go with the veteran early on.

00:36:23
Speaker 1: But Dylan Sampson, you know, I've said on this show like Ford is the safer one, you know, maybe early on the season like negative game script kind of back too. But Dylan Sampson to me, has the upside of the two, you know, and especially you know if Judkins doesn't, you.

00:36:38
Speaker 2: Know, like I do.

00:36:39
Speaker 1: We have no idea what's gonna go on with Judkins, you know, like we just just zero clue, So there could be some value value out of did you say you had tours?

00:36:46
Speaker 2: Is the Browns You're.

00:36:46
Speaker 1: Find You're gonna walk away from this podcast with the Cleveland Browns as your number one answer.

00:36:52
Speaker 3: Breakout offense, Well, because I didn't want to go obvious with the bearser Jaguars.

00:36:56
Speaker 2: I wanted to be a little over there.

00:36:57
Speaker 3: Hey, let me ask you a question. Do you think like if we got to week seventeen and Cedric Tillman had more fancy points than Jerry Judy, would you be falling out of your chair shocked? No?

00:37:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jerry, I've said it many times on this show.

00:37:11
Speaker 1: Judy was the same player last year that he's always been in my opinion, like he wasn't anything like if you look at all of his his per route run numbers, if you watch him, like, I didn't see anything like special or different.

00:37:22
Speaker 2: The thing that was different is that he ran more routes than.

00:37:25
Speaker 1: Any other player in football last year, right, Like they were dropping back the past so much, and he was just he's just a volume getter, right and and he was obviously the de facto dude, you know, one Cedric Tilman went you know, they trade Amari Cooper and then and then Cedric.

00:37:37
Speaker 2: Tillman you know, goes down.

00:37:39
Speaker 1: I would obviously, you know, give the edge to Judy, but I wouldn't be it wouldn't be like a shocking revelation if we just see Tilman, you know, find the end zone eight times and Judy only finds it four or something like that, and maybe the target sharers or Judy's only like one or two percentage points higher.

00:37:54
Speaker 3: I think that's definitely the range of outcomes here. Yeah, yeah, I think so, I'll get I'll give you a bonus one to that. To be a Browns I hope for fancy purposes, I have egg on my face. I'm not a Jackson Dart guy. I hope I'm wrong. And all of a sudden, Jackson Dart makes Malik neighbors either wand Dell or Slate and THEO Johnson, which, by the way, THEO Johnson you talk about metrics and testing off the charts before there was Tyler Warren at Penn State. Yeah, like THEO Johnson becomes a thing that backfield is productive with two running backs, Like I don't see it, but I would kind of hope I was wrong just for the fun of it.

00:38:25
Speaker 1: If Jackson Dart is legit, and he's looked legit so far in my opinion, I know, like like if that's there, I mean, like they there was also that one tweet slash quote I saw from someone reporting on the Giants. I don't know because this is just off the top of my head, but apparently Brian Dable like went up to Jackson Dart and just told him that he loves him or something like that in the locker room, like just straight up, you know, and just mentioning how much heat. So like maybe maybe that quarterback change happens sooner rather than later. All right, let's talk about some controversial players, because there's a lot of.

00:38:57
Speaker 2: Them this year.

00:38:58
Speaker 1: Almost every round there's to be one. So I'm gonna go player by player. We talked about one of them, cause we already talked about Tyler Warren's we don't think get the Tyler Warren And you know, we'll see how many we get to here. But the first one to start with is ashing genty. Your general thoughts and when I say general thoughts, you know, were you drafting them a lot, did you find them as a value as someone who you're avoiding, and just your general thoughts in.

00:39:18
Speaker 3: That player, somebody that almost had zero shares of because when I was at the mid back half of the first round, I was still taking Jacobs and Kyral Williams over him, and maybe I look stupid for that one, but I just I have questions how many receptions is going to get. I know that's the same argument it can make for Kyraen, but that's where I gave Jacobs the edge, especially with Marshall Lloyd hurt, and then the fact of what's the touchdown is going to be or like what's the equity going to be there? And I would just lean to the rams. So it was a very small margin where I still take Kyron, I still take Jacobs, And it just fell down to, like I have genty with Chase Brown, but by the time I picked, if it was the end of the first round, he was gone. If I was the middle of the first round, I was taking somebody else, maybe even a wide receiver. So I just never ended up with him because I had a little bit more hesitation. B John Robinson was RB eight as a rookie in what was a quote unquote disappointing season, but everybody was taking him as the second or third running back, like they can be really good and not be the best.

00:40:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I to me, I was kind of like a little bit below market just because I like the wide receivers going around gent and it's just easier to make those choices. But you know, genty to me was generational in my prospect model, second best score behind CMC and that dates back to twenty eleven.

00:40:27
Speaker 2: So we'll see.

00:40:28
Speaker 1: You just mentioned Kieron Williams. Let's talk about Kian Williams. Sounds like you're in on Williams this year.

00:40:33
Speaker 3: I am, And I'm not saying like I don't understand, because like I'm smarter than anybody else. Like, there are reasons to have doubts, but I think the biggest reason got thrown out the window. The biggest fear we had, and I said this before on my podcast, is like I think Sean McVay makes good running backs. Great. Do I think kiraon and Williams is Kira and Williams on twenty other teams? No, And I think our biggest fear was that when Sean Wick they gets tired of a running back, he flips the script go to the other one and it's like you're done, Like I'm moving on. He's done it with Darryl Henderson and many others who have were productive before it. So I think the fear was, Oh my gosh, if it happens Blake, Korum, Darquez, Hunter, whoever he turns to, it's gonna be done for Kyroen. He got the contract. He's like, if Kyen has two bad games, it's not gonna be like, well, we got a bench him. Let's go see what we had in Korham. And I think we took the biggest question mark and threw it out the window. Where he's been RB six each of the past two years. And I know two years ago was a little bit better on a per game basis than last year. So if you're talking about per game basis, I think he's like RB nine or ten last season. But if even falls in between, like RB eight, just I still think he's a top ten running back. I'm still taking him in front of some of the other names that people wanted to put in front of him, and just came down to I trust the Rams, I trust McVeigh, and I trust now that he has the contract. Because Kyron Williams, I'm sure you remember this. Towards the end of the season, his prop was eighteen nineteen and a half of carries and he is cruising the over It's just he's going to get the volume.

00:42:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, if he gets the volume, he'll be totally fine.

00:42:04
Speaker 1: My my my stance has been that I do think, like, if you think his workload will be there, then you should be drafting him if you like. I think there's some fragility to it, you know, just from the standpoint of the Rams. You know, they they don't they haven't thrownder their running backs for six years now, you know, it's been they've been bottom three and running back target share, and it's been obnoxious from that. The crazy thing is that Kayen Williams came into the league as a pass catching back like that. That's I thought he was going to play more of like a scatback role in the NFL, you know, and and and that's not what he's done at all, just given the way they deployed him. And so the fragility aspect, to me is what scares me a little bit is the like you know, he had last year. I don't think he's going to reach the eighty five percent like running back rush share that he had last year. But you know, if he's in that, like, if he gets to a seventy percent share, let's say, then we're starting to think like, oh, maybe the ceiling won't hit, But if you feel confident, you know that it'll be there.

00:43:00
Speaker 2: For him, then yeah you should. You should be drafting him.

00:43:02
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Tyreek Hill, who's not a captain anymore. I don't know if you've heard about this or not, so Tyreek Hill no longer a captain. Someone actually asked the mailbag question this week of like, how much I care about that? So I guess I'll throw it to you. Tyreek Hill no longer a captain of the Dolphins. People have been like either way in saying that he is one of the best values in drafts this year or just way out saying they don't want to touch it as the next Antonio Brown.

00:43:25
Speaker 2: Where do you stand? Yeah, I could not care less about the captain situation.

00:43:32
Speaker 3: You just couldn't. And when it comes down to the Antonio Brown, like again, I don't think we can put Antonio Brown basically on anybody else in existence. That's the whole bag of his own. It comes down to like we are talking about somebody approaching thirty two reliant on speed. So I get the hesitancy, but I also get that just two years ago heading at twenty nine into his thirty year old season, then he still was top of the league. So I think it comes down to I'm okay with him, which kind of might sound like a middle ground situation as a mid high end wide receiver two, because I do think there still is the potential for top five, but I bet on it absolutely not. That's why he's not even a wide receiver one for me.

00:44:08
Speaker 2: Do I think as a wide receiver Three?

00:44:10
Speaker 5: No.

00:44:10
Speaker 3: I think a hell of a lot went wrong for the Dolphins last year. But I will say the reason he is risky I think, in my opinion as a wide receiver two still is because it's not just Hill. There's so many factors there. It's two of getting hurt, and we've seen what happens to this offense when he gets hurt. But I also think it's on McDaniel. We saw the NFL adjustin McDaniel last year. They said, you know what, We're gonna stop playing you tight and letting you do all this stuff after the catch. We're gonna kind of play almost like I called it, like a double shell. I don't know if the NFL is coming around, but like they kind of double shelled the offense and basically said we're going to keep everything in front. Good luck, and the NFL figured McDaniel out. He now needs to adjust back and get Hillo thrown open and so he can do stuff after the catch or even deep. So I think there is risk. But that's why I say it's the middle ground, because I still think there's some for fifteen hundred yards and ten touchdowns, and I still think there's a world where he repeats last year and we're disappointed.

00:45:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, look I've been I've been middle ground with with Tyreek for the most part too. You know, you can see the scenario where he has that top five season, but then, like you said, the offensive line too, right, huge problem that offensive line where you want to or to have time to be able to get it down the field, and if that's not there, then that's a problem.

00:45:22
Speaker 4: You know.

00:45:22
Speaker 2: So you know, I could see it going many many directions. Sorry that we weren't very helpful with that one.

00:45:27
Speaker 1: Listener, Let's go to Amaron Hampton, where Rich Eisen broke the news that he is evidently starting this week. He was told that a Marion Hampton is starting, but Najee Harris now back seemingly going to be able to be active and play after that fireworks incident.

00:45:45
Speaker 2: Where are you with a Marion Hampton?

00:45:47
Speaker 3: So pre draft, I was Hampton very close to genty. I would take centy ten out of ten times. I just thought the gap was smaller than some people wanted to make it. Just similar to Gibbs and Bijon back in the day. Back in the day. It was two years ago, So I should say that to say, like, I like Hampton a lot. I just it's Greg Roman in his offense. This is the same offense that kept turning to freaking Gus Edwards again, Like I like, I just think Harris isn't gonna be so much of value in his own right. I just think he's gonna be a thorn in Hampton's side.

00:46:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's not a huge one.

00:46:19
Speaker 3: But we also have to see if the offense surprising last year threw a lot inside the ten yard line. They weren't even at the top of the They were actually near the top of the league for throwing versus running. And I think that will change with Hampton and Harris. But what if it's a lot of Harris and not so much Hampton. Where all I say is to present the fact that I just don't think Hampton's gonna bell cow this backfield. So two hundred and forty, two hundred and fifty touches. Yeah, I still think he's a top fifteen running back because that talent and that offense. Absolutely, if he finishes at RB, one wouldn't be shocked. The problem I had with Hampton is because Harris, you know, stop playing with fireworks everybody. The reason like Harris not being out there is Hampton kept getting pushed up, pushed up, pushed up, pushed up, and then I'm like, well, if you're gonna be draft him as a fringe arvy one, I'm out.

00:47:01
Speaker 5: Yeah.

00:47:02
Speaker 1: The weird thing with Hampton is that he's almost like a safe option as a rookie.

00:47:07
Speaker 2: Like the funny thing with like the Greg Roman offense.

00:47:10
Speaker 1: And I've tweeted about this and written about it and you know, talked about it, but like his he's been a coordinator for ten years now in completed seasons. He got fired in Buffalo after like a month, but he's had ten completed seasons in the NFL. His average running back rank and running back target share rank has been twenty six point three, so on average, his backfields end up ranking like twenty six or twenty seventh in team running back target share, which is obviously very very low. And then if you even adjust that for like, because people will come back and be like, well, he had mobile quarterbacks or you know he had you know, bad running backs back there. But when you adjust for that, every single running back and the quarterbacks still stuck around in those offenses. Like we've seen, for instance, Lamar Jackson playing without Greg Roman the last couple of years, and they've had much higher running back target shairs without Roman than with Roman, right. And we've had Dereck Henry, who's not a target getter, like that's not what he does. He's not a receiving back, right, And so there's a lot of of reason to believe that this offense just doesn't target running backs at a super super high clip. And and to me, that that's that screamed that Amaron Hampton was probably more of a floor play, like a like a high end RB two type play with maybe not that like top six kind of running back upside. And then when the Naji stuff happened, I'm like, Okay, well, maybe there is that top six running back upside, and now I'm starting to come back a little bit more just because I do think, like you said, he could just be a thorn, like he could just be really really obnoxious, really annoying, and we might not see like ful Hampton until towards the end of the year, hopefully.

00:48:40
Speaker 2: If we see it this year, you know, and you know, I don't.

00:48:43
Speaker 1: I don't mind that they were because like last year when when Justin Herbert was healthy, right because he started the season with that like ankle injury and stuff, they did become a little bit more pass heavy. And I don't think that would be like a terrible thing necessarily because I think the offense would be more efficient and hopefully have more scoring opportunities and stuff.

00:49:01
Speaker 2: But like you said, hopefully at the goal.

00:49:03
Speaker 1: Line and near the end zone they are a little bit more run heavy, because that would then, you know, help Hampton get those touchdowns. Xavier Worthy Xavier Worthy is a really fun one where she Rice now officially for six games this season.

00:49:17
Speaker 2: Not going to be playing. Have you been enter out on Worthy?

00:49:21
Speaker 3: That's one you could actually put on my list of getting a lot of Xavier Worthy just because I knew the Rashi Rice suspension was common. Obviously didn't know it was going to be to.

00:49:29
Speaker 2: Start the year.

00:49:30
Speaker 3: But the thing I kept bringing up was that for everything that people talked about for Ashi Rice's rookie season, Xavier Worthy did the same thing at the end of the year last year, and then we saw like that this offense kind of needed him, And it wasn't so much the fact like I don't like Rice the Worthy, Like if I knew both of were on the field seventeen games, I would take Rice over Worthy, but the gap wouldn't be that big. I actually went into this when there was that early you remember, like a month or two ago, there was like, oh, it might not even happen till twenty twenty six. For the suspension, I was like, okay, we Travis Kelsey's toast, like he's the one that's going to fall to the wayside. And I actually thought this could be like Rice twenty three to twenty four percent target share and Worthy like hovering around twenty and kind of what they used to do with Kelsey and Hill, but now Kelsey is the one that falls to the wayside, is like a thirteen percent kind of like the forty nine ers to a degree, so I've been in Unworthy a lot. Because there's also, like when I said before about presenting, like the play out the scenarios in your mind, like there's a world where would you be shocked if Xavier Worthy was just better than Rice because he hasn't been injured, he's been with the team, he makes another.

00:50:33
Speaker 2: Step forward, I would again still take Rice.

00:50:36
Speaker 3: It's just it's similar to the DeVante Adams argument that people want to make with the rams for Nikua, like if we got to the end of the year and their neck and neck or even Adams. And that's why because Worthy was still going so cheap and still is somehow today even knowing we have the six game suspension that he's going as a fringe wide receiver two or three, and you get him for the first six weeks with no Rice, Like I just I want more people to be on Worthy.

00:51:00
Speaker 1: That was the weird thing that I witnessed, especially in like the Best Ball streets, where like you know, the market reacts immediately to different news items and stuff like that. And when we officially learned because again like you noted, like we we didn't, Like a lot of people were saying that that Rice because he wasn't going to get have his court date until January of twenty twenty six, and so we were making the assumption that, oh, well, then you know, the NFL doesn't react and act until after these things happened, So this could be another year where Rashi Rice is on the field. And so you know, once that officially happened, that he that he pled guilty and he took, you know whatever, all the legal stuff that happened when that went down. I was shocked that Xavier Worthy's ADP barely moved when we officially knew that there was going When I mean on DraftKings all summer you had Jordan Addison knowing.

00:51:48
Speaker 2: That he was going to be suspended.

00:51:49
Speaker 1: We all knew he was going to be suspended, and then his ADP didn't fall until after the official suspension happened. Right. But then with Rashi Rice, we find out that he's going to miss six or he's going to be suspended this year, right, we don't know exactly when, and Xavier Worthies ADP doesn't shift. So I was of the belief where I was like, yes, I like Rice more than Worthy, and then I ended up drifting like I'm overweight Unworthy now after the ADP didn't move like it was just it's just a wild Like it's just a really good example to me of like this is why when we talk about liking and not liking players, it's all versus cost, right, Like we we don't you know, we don't hate these guys or we don't. It's just all versus what we're paying to get them. And so, yeah, like I liked Worthy as a prospect, I have some concern about like ceiling, Like do you think that he has like a true top ten ceiling in him Xavier Worthy?

00:52:39
Speaker 3: No, I think his ceiling's kind of more in the fifteen to twenty like most DJ Moore seasons.

00:52:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, when he was at his peak or something like that. Yeah, yeah, that's kind of where I'm at too. All Right, we got to talk about Bill Krosssey Merritt, Right, we got to talk about Cory Krostsey Merritt, because what what fantasy podcast these days doesn't reference something about the Washington backfield?

00:53:00
Speaker 2: So all right, just just give it to me.

00:53:02
Speaker 3: Where are you at with with Jacory Krossy Merit? So I don't want to throw out the person this name because in case they're wrong. I don't want people to come for him. But I have a very very very trusted person close to the commander situation that said, I warn you coming out of the gate for Jacory Krosskey or Bill what four name, we'll just call him four name guy for the Commanders. Because he said this, he's like, the team does love Krosskey, Merritt. Let me make that clear. The issue is, as you well know, he's played one game since twenty twenty three, right, people, So the thought is because he's on the Commanders and they do love him and they want him for the second half, that they are going full blown committee out of the gate and it's going to be a nightmare for us. When the answer just truly is Austin Eckler, who was productive last year, the pass catching option. Not to mention the matchup with the Giants. If you want to try and avoid that defensive line, what are you doing? Check out Austin Eckler. So he said it probably it's going to be slow. He said, don't be shocked if he has five to seven touches in week one, and we're just like infuriated. But that's why kind of dovetail into this when we're talking about strategies and stuff like that, and I know it kind of works with a lot of things you and I are talking about. I know you didn't ask me this, but the preseason, I think the perception of you're talking about krossky merrit, I'm talking about like all these players and they get hyped. And so two months ago Trevion Henderson talked about talked about and we see these guys every single preseason the helium. They just rise, rise, rise, rise, and then almost like you get people in your drafts are like, well, I got to get them because I need to look like the smartest person. And then you're not only buy all the risk, you take them where there's no possible way they can even return value. And I think that krossky merit was fine until this past week. I would not draft them at like RB twenty eight thirty, kind of like as my bench option where I can be patient.

00:54:49
Speaker 2: And maybe that's to tell for everybody out there.

00:54:51
Speaker 3: If this person that told me this is correct, the immediate thing you should be doing after two three weeks, go go get them on the little cheap because they'll be nice in the second half of the season.

00:55:00
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:55:00
Speaker 1: No, that makes total sense. Like I think I had him ranked like it was past RB thirty five. For me, I couldn't draft him in like the top thirty five. But like you know, once you get past some of those players in that range, you're just like side yeah. Everyone everyone's kind of just like you know, like just a lot of question marks and stuff. So I kind of just threw him in there. But then I realized other people are liking I didn't get him in any draft after you know, the steam really hit right.

00:55:25
Speaker 3: I just couldn't.

00:55:26
Speaker 1: I I you know, Darwin Thompson flashbacks were hitting me, and uh and I and I got I got freaked out. But no, I mean, like you know, he had he had some really interesting like peripheral numbers in college. You know, my the ZAP model that I use didn't really love him that much just because his volume numbers, like related numbers and the stuff that that I look and his receiving numbers we were not good.

00:55:48
Speaker 2: Like he just didn't have much receiving backbone.

00:55:50
Speaker 1: And so that's another thing is that I worry about what that ceiling will look like down the stretch, even if Austin Eckler is still healthy. You know, because we know that he's still he was still a good pass catcher last year Eckler, you know, and like you said, that's as it's a decent spot for him to just get some of those dump offs. Like are you this week ranking Chris Rodriguez ahead of Jacry Krossky.

00:56:11
Speaker 3: Merrit No, just because I'll chase the ceiling. And I think Chris Rodriguez is just based on hopefully getting a touchdown, which if he hits cool or whatever, but they're both basically and don't start him range. And I think with like this backfield, as we've worn throughout the years, and hopefully most people know this, but like going back to Cam Newton, like all this, when you have that kind of quarterback that runs as much as they do, you only want one option hopefully next to them. You don't want two three options because then it's just there's the volume just can't be there.

00:56:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I wonder even at the goal line, like are they gonna run some funny stuff and funky stuff with Debo at times?

00:56:46
Speaker 2: And like I was just gonna say, Diva is gonna get three touches a game.

00:56:49
Speaker 1: There's a lot that can go and you know, I don't mind him for sure, especially you know, I got lucky that I had good CLV with him in Best Ball and was drafting him in like the nineteenth and twentieth round early on, but I could not you know, I can't get behind the sixth seventh round price tag. It's just really really difficult for me. All Right, one more player. Since we talked about Tyler Warren. This one maybe doesn't seem controversial, but I kind of think it's like like it's people have had differing views. But Jordan Mason, you know, going from San Francisco to Minnesota, splitting that back fill with Aaron Jones.

00:57:21
Speaker 2: A lot of people think that he's just going to take over, But where are you at with him?

00:57:24
Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to take over. I actually I think this is kind of the Steelers inverse, where if Warren was the lead in AJ Harris was the timeshare piece, and it's not that like Jordan Mason was lighting the world on fire in short yardage. I know he got stuffed a lot.

00:57:41
Speaker 2: And this is where, like I think, to go back to the beginning of.

00:57:44
Speaker 3: Our conversations, like where metrics like everybody's like, well, Jordan Mason was one for whatever, but like, also, okay, well look at the plays where he was one for whatever, and like you know, at the one yard line, it's going to be really tough for a lot of running backs unless you're Derrick Henry. So you have to take all that into the equation. But to take one step back, it's not that Aaron Jones has ever been terrible either, Like he's not a thumper, but this is a guy who ran for double digit scores twice with the Packers. Again, some of them not being from the two yard line. But the Minnesota Vikings offensive line was doing that team zero favors last year. I know it's turned around and people are rating it as a potential top ten unit. Well cool, that also helps Aaron Jones. Do I think Aaron Jones is the premiere back? He was with the Packers and we wanted more touches for him. No, but that's not kind of really who Aaron Jones ever was. The Packers told us that he needs to be a time share, but I would still take Jones over Mason.

00:58:35
Speaker 1: Now.

00:58:35
Speaker 3: Of course, if Jones gets hurt, everybody's going to be nuts for Jordan Mason, and that's cool because he'll kind of get that bellcal work. But as it stands right now, I think Mason is in that RB three four ish range, depending on what your team or roster size looks like. Whereas, yeah, he's going to get touches every single week, but without a touchdown, you might be looking at eight for forty nine for like, you know, ten, maybe gets twelve carries and he gets you six yards, but without a touchdown, it's going to be hard to be excited about him.

00:59:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, And there's just no I mean, he hasn't been a receiver and throughout his career and even at you know when when he was at Georgia Tech, he played with Jamir Gibbs, and you know, you can make arguments whatever, but like last year in San Francisco, he had the opportunity to be a pass catching back because he was the lead back for them, and he didn't. He had like a three percent target share right Like, he was not seeing any work as a receiver. And you can sit there and say, like, oh, Kyle Shanahan's offense doesn't favor pass catching backs outside of Christian McCaffery, because I've seen that sort of retort to that but Isaac Grenda was seeing more work as a receiver when when he was, you know, in that role. And so I do question, like, like, I think the pairing from a real football perspective makes a ton of sense, right. You get an early down guy like Jordan Mason with an aged, you know, receiving back, because like to me, Aaron Jones has always been one of the most underrated receiving running backs in all football, right, And so you can bind those two things, and you're like, this makes so much sense to have those two guys to get I just am going to always favor the pass catching.

01:00:03
Speaker 2: Back in these in these scenarios, you know.

01:00:05
Speaker 1: So I'm I've been going after Aaron Jones, Moore, I'm not like overweight on Aaron Jones because of the age and all that kind of stuff. But I agree that I haven't been able to like really back the Jordan Mason stuff because realistically, it's like a Jordan Mason is basically Braylan Allen in a better offense, right, And so or you know, from like a projection stet Well, like I Bigsby exactly Etan and Bigsby like he's the he's the tank.

01:00:28
Speaker 2: Bigsby.

01:00:28
Speaker 1: I would rather just take the Bigsby discount if I'm going to do that, if I'm gonna get that early down guy, and I think, you know again, I always preface, like I know, I brought up best ball and stuff, but it's a little bit different in bastball because you don't having to predict when these touchdowns are happening and stuff. But I do think that it's going to be a touchdown dependent type player like you're saying. So definitely the same page with Jordan Mason. Right last question before I let you go, you kind of teased it earlier. Give me a bold prediction for this twenty twenty five season.

01:00:59
Speaker 3: I remember it's but I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna come strong with this one. Jaden Higgins is the number two rookie wide receiver for Fantasy Woo. Here's why. So I compared him to Marvin Jones pre draft. My colleague Dane Brugler said, I see your Marvin Jones. I'm coming with Nico Collins. I was like, oh, okay, I love you, Dane. I like but that one's really aggressive. But here's why I like is because even if he is Marvin Jones to see that step up with by the way, good timing. I'm recording this podcast because I had this as my hot take even before the Christian Kirk missing practice with a hamstring injury because he's Christian Kirk.

01:01:36
Speaker 2: Is the fact that if you look at where CJ.

01:01:38
Speaker 3: Stroud still had some success last year when he was under pressure, was throwing to Nico Collins. Because when under pressure with Nico Collins, that was actually one of the highest yearge per route run of any wide receiver when under pressure was Stroud to Collins. And I think that Higgins can replicate a lot of what Collins does. So if you gave me ninety percent Collins on the other side of them, stock up. If we're buying into the bounce back for Stroud, that the offensive line's been somewhat approved and that we believe CJ. Stroud is more of the rookie season one I Higgins playing on the outside, Kirk in the slot or Noel when he takes over, whichever because he's hurt. But I just looked at Higgins as like, again, Marvin Jones, is what I feel like is a flour ok thousand, eleven hundred yards six seven eight touchdowns. Yeah, I think Travis Hunter can do that. Yeah, I think that Matthew Golden's in that world too. But if I'm wrong, and I'm saying this in Dane's right and he is Nico Collins, I mean we might be looking at somebody who can put up eleven, twelve, thirteen hundred yards what I bet on it? Obviously not you asked for a hot take, but I'm a Jayden Higgins fan, and I think that there's a possibility is the number two wide receiver for rookies in.

01:02:43
Speaker 1: Fantasy Now, not to get you even more excited, but one of his three statistical comps in the ZAP model was Nico Collins. So I was letting you mention that I read that. Trust me, I remember that part as well. So so I was letting you throw that nugget in. It's so funny watching this. This is a total aside, but it's so funny watching these teams draft wide receivers that have the that are complete archetypes of wide receivers they already have. Like like when I looked at like there was one year, like last year, like Xavier Worthy was a Hollywood.

01:03:12
Speaker 2: Brown comp Like that was one of his comps or like ad Nai Mitchell, one of his comps.

01:03:16
Speaker 1: Was Alec Pierce in my in my prospect models, Like there's just always like these guys that were this year Jalen Royals was Rashi Rice. That was one of his top comps, Like there's always there's always this connection, like they always have their dudes. I mean, I think Higgins is it's a great call, Like I think that he you know, he's someone who I don't know would be able to be a standalone one, but Nico Collins wasn't able to either right away, right, so him being able to play alongside Nico might be a really big benefit in the end. So I like that call a lot, especially with this, uh, this Christian Kirk hamstring, which seemed like I guess it was gonna be inevitable because it's Christian Kirk.

01:03:52
Speaker 2: But I mean, like Christian Kirk went healthy, yay, But how often do we get yeah, right exactly, Jake Man, this was awesome.

01:04:00
Speaker 1: Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on and what you're doing in this twenty twenty five season.

01:04:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks so much for having me. It was a fun talk at Only Kid over the Athletic where everything is. And then I resurrected the old podcast. It's now the All In Speed Run, which we'll have a JJ on at some point this season for a little short stint. Yeah, if one Wednesday there, So I appreciate that, and I appreciate you having me. This was a lot of fun.

01:04:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, it was great chopping up with you as usual. You guys can find all my workover on lateround dot com. I mean, if you still want to buy a draft guide, I won't stop you, but more than likely here your your drafts are over. But you can still check that out over on lateround dot com. Sign up for the newsletter. It's totally free. Make make sure you subscribe to both the podcast and the YouTube channel otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.