878: Utilizing Front Office Decision-Making

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas JJ zacher reeth. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode eight hundred and seventy eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. Rather than just spewing my rankings at you. After the NFL Draft, I like to take a step back and take in.

00:00:27
Speaker 2: What's just unfolded.

00:00:29
Speaker 1: The draft is one of the rare times each year where we get to see through actions how a team might be thinking. You can find my rankings and my thoughts on every relevant rookie from a fantasy football perspective by checking out the Late Round Prospect Guide. The post draft version was published on Saturday night, and a lot of my thoughts are in there. Next week on the show, I'll walk through my post draft rankings in more detail. You can find the guide over on Lateround dot com. Right now, today, I want to do what this episode's title says. I want to analyze the front office decision making that we just witnessed. What does Dallas's lack of running back selection actually mean? Why did the Bears go after Romadoon Day when they had DJ Moore and Keenan Allen already on the roster. Why did Troy Franklin fall in the draft? Those are the questions that I'm trying to answer today, Not how many Fantasy points is Marvin Harrison Junior are going to score this year. We've got all summer to talk about that. Today, we'll be looking at the actions that these teams took and why they acted the way that they did. Doing so can often help us in fantasy football. Now, before getting into things, I hope you heard the news within the podcast feed yesterday. There's a new show coming this summer, and that show is all about best Ball. I'll be talking to some of the smartest best ball players on planet Earth this summer as I max enter Underdog's Best ball Mania five contest. As I learned some of the details about the game, I want you guys to learn too. That contest started on Monday and it runs all summer long. But Underdog has way more to offer than just that. There are differ from best Ball leagues that you can join, and you can play things like Champions Mode as well. Check it all out at Underdog Fantasy dot com or download the Underdog app, and if you're new to Underdog, when you sign up, use promo code late Round for a one hundred dollars deposit match. That's promo code late Round. I don't have a super strong take on the Falcons taking Michael Pennix. At first. I was in the camp that it was stupid. It was a dumb move. The more I've thought about it, though, the more I kind of understand why they did what they did, which was falling in love with a quarterback prospect and not wanting to lose him. They didn't necessarily know that they could get Pennix when they signed Cousins that one hundred million dollar guaranteed contract. Now I think it's still questionable when you consider they did sign Cousins, but I at least can see both sides. I also don't want to talk about that real football move all that much because it's not as big of a deal in fantasy. I'll take Pennix in superflex leagues where he slides. I'm not having to select him over a legit stuff at other positions.

00:03:01
Speaker 2: That's where I'm at.

00:03:03
Speaker 1: Roma Dunzay going to Chicago is a lot more fun to talk about as a top ten pick a Dounza looks good in the ZAP model. He ended up having a score of ninety six, which was the third best in the class, but it was a decent bit behind Marvin Harrison in Malik Neighbors. He's not in their tier in my opinion. Of course, The thing to dissect here is the fit in what Chicago may have been thinking when they made that pick, and I think it's a fairly straightforward answer. The Bears know that surrounding a young quarterback with weapons is a smart thing to do. They added Keenan Allen over the offseason already, they just went through a tough situation with Justin Fields, even if that was largely the last regime. You surround young quarterbacks on rookie contracts with weapons, allow them to get better and build confidence, and hope that translates to W's But Keenan Allen's also a free agent next year, and he's thirty two years old. This is a move about the future just as much as it's a move about twenty twenty four. And I know what you and a lot of fantasy managers are currently thinking. Isn't this the exact same thing that we saw with Jackson Smith and Jigba. Last year, he went to a team that already had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and we saw how that ended in fantasy football, which was not great. It's the same in that Adunze isn't walking into a situation where he's the clear alpha. From a projection standpoint. Yeah, we're gonna project DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to see more looks this year than Romadunza, but it's not the same when you look at the type of receivers that were analyzing a dounsay can play all over the field. When JSN came out last year, we all knew the talent was there, or we thought it was there. But JSN had a lot of slot work in college. During his big sophomore season at Ohio State, he ran eighty nine percent of his routes from the slot, and we knew that would likely be his role in year one. Now, for the record, I'm not trying to approach us with hindsight bias. I know I like JSN as a prospect. I thought he was fine to grab in the middle rounds of redraft leagues last year. I even thought that there was a chance that he could just develop into the top receiver in Seattle. I mean, I guess, to be fair, that's still a possibility. But this isn't some sort of revisionist history. I'm just bringing up jsn's slot work because of fit with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, it seemed clear that Jaysn would at the very least start out in the slot. That could limit him a little bit to start the season in two wide receiver sets. He got hurt before the season started, got off to a slow start, and he just wasn't able to capture the role.

00:05:34
Speaker 2: That we thought he might be able to capture.

00:05:37
Speaker 1: Now. I think examples like this are why the Prospect Guide can be helpful. I can look back at previous versions and see where my head was at before these guys stepped foot on a football field. And this is what I said for JSN in last year's guide quote. It's not the best location for Smith and Jigba imaginable, especially since he'll be competing with more than one high end wide receiver for time targets as a rookie. But it wouldn't be surprising if fantasy managers factor in this destination more than they should. There's an outcome here where eventually JSN is still seeing more work in this offense than DK Metcalf. The targets won't be as quality for fantasy purposes, but JSN can still be a PPR machine and a Keenan Allen type role. The shift in draft capital moved Smith and Jigma from a ninety seven percentile prospect to a ninety fifth ninety six percentile one. It would have been nice for him to go a couple of spots higher, but he's still in good shape to be a nice fantasy contributor, most likely during his second or third year in the league. The biggest miss there, in my opinion, was saying that fantasy managers would factor in that destination more than they should. They didn't, and JSN lost a ton of value from year one to year two.

00:06:51
Speaker 2: But Seattle also.

00:06:52
Speaker 1: Didn't let him play that Keenan Allen type role that I was alluding to. It's funny that Allen was the receiver that I comped him to there, because Allen's now the receiver that we're talking about in Chicago, but in Seattle last year with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who's now the offensive coordinator in Chicago. JSN had an average depth of target of six point four that was one of the lowest in the entire NFL. He led all thirty plus target receivers and percentage of targets that came behind the line of scrimmage. That's according to PFF. He was used in a way that is not Romadunze. Like, if you use Romadunza the way Seattle used Jackson Smith and Jigbit last season, you should be fired immediately. If anyone in this Waldron offense is playing the JSN role this year, it's Keenan Allen, not a Dounza. Now that doesn't mean that I think Allen is about to have a six yard A dot and an eighteen percent target share. I'm just saying that's the archtype. Romadunza is a completely different wide receiver and because of that, he's not going to be as reliant on a super high target share. When you have a low average depth of target, you have to make up for that by catching a lot of passes. Low A dots are not good for fantasy football. That's why Jackson Smith and Jigba was not good for fantasy.

00:08:05
Speaker 2: Football last year.

00:08:07
Speaker 1: You need a lot of touches to make up for that. And in an offense where you have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Jackson Smith and Jigba didn't get a lot of those touches. But with Roma Dounesay, who's gonna be trotted all over the field and seeing more down the field looks it's a totally different ballgame.

00:08:23
Speaker 2: Now, don't mistake that for me, thinking.

00:08:24
Speaker 1: Of Dounsay is gonna ball out here in year one, I'm simply speaking to this idea that he's absolutely doomed the exact way that JSN was doomed. It's a totally different receiver and that absolutely matters. A Dounsay might struggle to be super relevant in year one from a fantasy football perspective, but I would bet that he's going to be a lot more efficient than Jaysen was last year, and that's going to go a long way and helping him not see the market dip that Jaysn has seen from year one to year two. And then because Keenan Allen's a free agent next year, there's an opportunity for a Dounzay to really thrive as a second year player in the league. We've got to talk about Brock Bauers going to Vegas too. I love Bowers as a talent. He's the second best tight end in my tight end model, which goes back to twenty fifteen. He's a monster, There's no doubt about it. He still fell in my post draft rankings, and there were people in the late round Fantasy Football Discord who were wondering why he fell so much when you look at my pre draft to post draft rankings.

00:09:25
Speaker 2: So allow me to explain the.

00:09:27
Speaker 1: Thing that you have to remember with rankings pre and post draft is that it's not always that anything happened to that specific player, but things happen to other players. When you look at my pre to post draft super flex rankings, Bowers in the pre draft version was a head of JJ McCarthy, Brian Thomas, and Xavier Worthy. Now I have him behind those guys and Bo Nicks the nixt thing. Whatever you can go with Brock Bowers over bow Knicks, I don't care. He's still in the same tierism. I just like the way that quarterbacks appreciate and value and Nick's got the right coaching.

00:10:00
Speaker 2: Staff for him.

00:10:01
Speaker 1: But JJ McCarthy brilliant landing spot, Brian Thomas decent draft capital, great landing spot, Xavier Worthy really good score in the Prospect Model, and another brilliant landing spot. Brock Bauer's very good in the model, but he's in a questionable landing spot. He's still in a tier with those other guys. He's just now at the end of it instead of closer to the top of it. Although JJ McCarthy did jump up a tier in Superflex. And yeah, I'm worried about this landing spot a little bit. The Raiders don't have an answer at quarterback right now. They drafted Michael Mayer last year. Now, the Prospect Model thought that Mayor was a little bit overrated, but he's still a capable tight end. He's arguably the best number two tight end in the league right now. And I just have to be honest. I don't really trust a team and a coaching staff who would use their top half first round pick on someone of a luxury asset. They were drafting best player available, But to me, best player available still incorporates positional value in some way.

00:11:00
Speaker 2: Inherently it does.

00:11:02
Speaker 1: Otherwise we be getting way more running backs and interior offensive linemen and kickers and punters in the first round.

00:11:09
Speaker 2: Best means best at a position that matters in the early rounds.

00:11:12
Speaker 1: And if a team is gonna draft brock Bauers, which is somewhat of a luxury pick when they have so many holes, I don't really trust that team to know how to use him. He can absolutely operate out of the slot and play that role for the Raiders, but I have concerns about him dramatically appreciating in value from year one to year two. And that's a key thing to talk about here. Tight Ends don't appreciate in value the same way that other positions do in fantasy football because other positions just simply matter more to the game of fantasy football. Sam Laporta is coming off one of the greatest, if not the greatest rookie tight end season of all time, and he still can't get into the second round of super flex startup drafts. Imagine if a wide receiver had a historic rookie season. Oh wait, you don't have to imagine that. Puka Nakua literally just did. And he's a Day three player, and the dynasty market hates Day three players. But guess what, he's going more than half a round higher than Sam Laporta is right now, and that's in the early rounds where six or seven or eight picks is really really meaningful, and brock Bauers is not in a Sam Laporta situation. As much as I love Bawers, I'm fine with having him at the bottom of this tier instead of the top. It allows you to still draft him if you want to go the tight end direction. I just think there are reasons to be cautious now. Speaking of Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs ended up trading up for him in the first round. I talked about this exact fit when talking to Matt Harmon on The Wide Receiver Show just a couple of weeks ago, and I'm very, very into it now. I do understand Harmon's concerns that the Chiefs need players who can win without being schemed to do so.

00:12:54
Speaker 2: Rashi Rice is a good player, but he's not a fully developed route runner. Kansas City.

00:12:59
Speaker 1: They can just row him in the slot and let him do his thing after the catch, which is what he's great at. Now we have another receiver and Worthy who can definitely win deep, who can definitely win with speed and with the ball in his hands. But can he win naturally at the line. That's the big question.

00:13:16
Speaker 2: Now. I don't know if he can or not.

00:13:17
Speaker 1: What I do know is that I trust Andy Reid to find ways to get him the ball. I don't see why he can't be a Marquise Brown type in the NFL, which is who he comped to in the model, with an even higher ceiling, given his twitchiness and his speed. The fact that Kansas City moved up to take him also tells me that they had their eye on him. They wanted this element in their offense. And this is not the same thing as the Mikole Hardman selection. Hartman was one of the few Day two wide receivers in the ZAP model who failed to register a breakout score in college. Xavier Worthy's breakout scorer was third best in this year's class. You know who is better, Malik Neighbors and Marvin Harrison Junior. Worthy has a whole lot of upside in this offense, and Kansas City's actions tell me that this was not a situation where the player just fell into their lap. They wanted Xavier Worthy. Now, soon after that Worthy selection was Ricky Pearsall.

00:14:16
Speaker 2: Going to the forty nine ers.

00:14:18
Speaker 1: It's crazy I talked about Pearsaw back in February on the show when I started doing my prospecting work. At the time, he was like a fringe Day two pick according to NFL Mock Draft database dot com. I never thought at that moment that he was going to go Round one, but then things really started to pick up and it seemed like the league really liked him.

00:14:39
Speaker 2: So when the.

00:14:39
Speaker 1: Draft hit, when Day one hit, I was far less shocked that he found himself in the first round. The question you might be asking, though, is why why did the forty nine ers make this selection? Well, first off, Deebo Samuel has a hard time saying healthy. He's now twenty eight years old as well, that's not old, but he is inching closer to thirty. I have a potential out with his contract in twenty twenty five. All the while Brandon Ayuk is a free agent next year. This is why you've been hearing all that trade talk about San Francisco wide receivers. So they go out and they get Pearsaw likely to cover their bases, but also they probably love Pearsaw the player because he's not only a great route runner, he's super versatile. He can play all over the field. He can carry the ball and generate yards on the ground too. I'm not surprised at all that Kyle Shanahan likes Ricky Piersaw the weapon. If Deebo Samuel and Brandon Ayuk are both in San Francisco this year, then Piersal probably won't have that great of a rookie season statistically, but similar to someone like Roma Dunza, I love the fit and things can and probably will change in year two. Not only that, but for both players, both Roma Dunsay and Ricky Pierson, there's contingent injury upside. We can't forget about that. At the beginning of the second round, New England selected Jalen Polk. That was after getting Drake May third overall the night before. They then followed up that Polk selection by picking a pre draft favorite of mine in Javon Baker. They very clearly are trying to surround their rookie quarterback with some weapons, which is a smart thing to do, especially given their wide receiver depth chart. Now, Polk was someone I wasn't really high on in the pre draft process, but I wasn't super low on him either. I think the fantasy community is a little bit surprised that he went as high as he did, but there was a lot of tok pre draft that he was going to go that high.

00:16:31
Speaker 2: Peter Scheger had Polk at the end of the first round in one of his mocks.

00:16:35
Speaker 1: Polk has a Zapp scorer that was actually slightly better than Xavier Legetz in the prospect model. It's pretty similar to someone like Keon Coleman's Now. I gave Coleman a subjective bump in the rankings given the landing spot, but just from a talent perspective, I don't think Polk is a bad player. The dynasty market is largely analytics driven. If a wide receiver gets good draft capital but he is a poor production profile, the market generally does not favor that player, and generally speaking, that's not totally irrational. Age adjusted production absolutely matters.

00:17:08
Speaker 2: The community was.

00:17:09
Speaker 1: Right a few years ago to push Kadarius Tony down draft boards, like I'm not faulting anyone here. Where I do think we sometimes see a disconnect is when profiles aren't absolutely horrific, like Kadarius Tony had a really bad age adjusted profile. There were reasons for it, but it was objectively bad, but Chris A. Labe he shouldn't have been pushed down the way that he was pushed down. He still had a well rounded profile. And I think Jalen Polk, from what I'm seeing early on, he's being pushed down a.

00:17:39
Speaker 2: Little bit too much as well.

00:17:41
Speaker 1: Now he's an early second round pick who definitely doesn't have a flawless production profile. He was able to reach a two point zero yards per team pass attempt rate just once in his collegiate career, but he also played alongside Romadunza and Jaylen McMillan at Washington. His teammates score in the model is really good, so even though his breakout scores well below average, the teammate scoer is helping him out. This is why teammates score exists, and it does get signal. And at the end of the day, a lot of these Day two guys they had bad breakout scores. None of them have flawless profiles. And I like Javon Baker a lot too. He had great production at UCF, especially last year, and he has one of the better breakout scores in the class. Because of draft capital, I wouldn't take him over Polk. But no, it wouldn't shock me at all if he ends up being the better pro. I think both of these guys make sense as targets to some degree in your rookie draft. And I think people aren't bolish specifically on Polk because of their pre draft takes, but also because it's New England. They've been horrendous at finding wide receivers in the draft historically, but guys, this is a different regime. You have to keep that in mind. I talked about Jonathan Brooks being my pre draft RB one on the Ranking Show last week, and he is by far my post draft RB one. I thought maybe he'd slip a little bit because of the ACL, or that maybe there'd be a discussion with Trey Benton post draft.

00:19:09
Speaker 2: Nope, it's Jonathan Brooks. He's the RB one. He had almost a score.

00:19:13
Speaker 1: Of ninety four in the ZAP model, which is really really good. That places him in a similar tiers score wise as someone like Kenneth Walker and Javonte Williams.

00:19:22
Speaker 2: Now.

00:19:22
Speaker 1: I don't think the Panthers should have taken a running back in round two. It's a highly valuable pick and he's a running back. The Panthers are rebuilding. He's a really good player and I get the allure, but they probably didn't need to do that. Regardless. That's the team that he's with. And while I do have some concerns about his workload and what that might look like year one coming off the ACL and a team that's looking more into the future, the fit itself when you removed draft capital and what they spent, it does make sense. Miles Sanders is Miles Sanders and Chepa Hubbard, who I thought was a fine dart throw by earlier this offseason, which was an l. Hubbard's a free agent next year, and Dave Canalis is coming off a season as offensive coordinator of the Buccaneers where he wasn't afraid to use wee.

00:20:05
Speaker 2: Shad White as a true bell cow back. Brooks can do it all.

00:20:10
Speaker 1: His age adjustin production wasn't fantastic at Texas, but that was because he was playing behind Bjeon Robinson and Roshan Johnson. This past year, he was great before tearing his ACL. He hit all the marks that we want a running back to hit, whether it be in breakout scorer which was seventy three, our best season reception share, which was over eleven percent to me, he's in a tier above someone like Trey Benson. Now he's a first round rookie pick in all formats. Now, speaking of Day two running backs, Marshawn Lloyd went to Green Bay. I have some issues with Lloyd's production profile, and he is a little bit older, but he did deal with injury in college, so we can at least excuse some of it. Lloyd going to the Packers, it's a head scratcher to some. So let's put ourselves in the Packers' shoes for a minute, which is what this episode's all about. They go out, they signed Josh Jacobs this offseason, while losing Aaron Jones. Behind Jacobs on the depth chart is a re signed AJ Dillon, who, as we know, hasn't had the best time in recent years.

00:21:12
Speaker 2: Something I talked about on the Free.

00:21:14
Speaker 1: Agency episode a little while back was how Matt Lafleur has traditionally had split backfields dating back to his time in Tennessee. It was one of the reasons that I wasn't as bullish on Josh Jacobs. So strictly from that standpoint, you can understand what Green Bay was thinking. They want another capable back on that roster to compliment Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is still the one A in twenty twenty four, but Lloyd can be a nice change of pace guy given his speed. Jacobs also has an out with his contract after this season. So hypothetically, let's say Marshawn Lloyd shows up with that one hundred and eleven speed score and he really flashes. Green Bay may feel comfortable moving on from Josh Jacobs. Then all of a sudden, in twenty five, Marshawn Lloyd is the starting running back for the Green Bay Packers. Now, I likely wouldn't have been in on Lloyd had he gone to a place where his rookie draft ADP would have ended up being high. But plenty if people are gonna be turned off by this landing spot, I actually don't see it as a bad one. Now, a similar ish situation happened in Miami. They didn't take a Day two running back, but they did take Jalen Wright in round four, And it could be one of those situations where fantasy gamers are asking why they already have Devon ah Chan and Raheem Mostard, why do they need Jalen Wright. Well, I'll tell you why it's speed. Mike McDaniel loves speed. Right was best in this class an explosive play rate during his top season, and he had a one hundred and fourteen speed score. It's yet another fast running back to go with Devon ah Chan and Raheem Mostard, And while Moster did get a contract extension this offseason, he could be gone in twenty twenty five. He's also a thirty two year old running back who hasn't had the cleanest bill of health throughout his career. Meanwhile, there's a Chan who never profiled to be a true belcal back.

00:23:10
Speaker 2: We know this. He gets by on efficiency and he can still do that with another back in the mix. Jalen Wright in twenty twenty five could end up sharing a backfield straight up with Devon A. Chan, which is absolutely insane to think about.

00:23:24
Speaker 1: That's so much speed, But that's exactly how the Dolphins like it, and it's exactly why we should love this landing spot for Jalen Wright. Because Jalen Wright himself wasn't someone who is probably gonna capture a backfield all by himself in the NFL. That's not what he did in college. You put him with Devon a chan and it could work out perfectly. Let's talk about Troy Franklin. I had talked about on the pre draft show, how after that Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas here a wide receiver, there was just so much up in the air. Draft capital was gonna help us out, and draft capital helped out with Troy Franklin, just not in a good way.

00:24:02
Speaker 2: Was I surprised by his slide? Yeah, a little bit.

00:24:06
Speaker 1: I can understand why teams passed on him though. He's a leaner wide receiver who sometimes and this is really clear when you read his reception perception profile, but he sometimes couldn't overcome his frame. One of his comps in the prospect model was Jalen Hyatt, and I think.

00:24:22
Speaker 2: That's kind of the fear with Franklin.

00:24:24
Speaker 1: Now, with that being said, Hyatt also had a fit problem last year his big season in college. It happened via the slot, and that's not where the Giants deployed him.

00:24:33
Speaker 2: In year one.

00:24:34
Speaker 1: Franklin played the X and he was able to post multiple seasons of pro rated yards per team pass attempt rates in college above two.

00:24:41
Speaker 2: The Zach model sees Franklin as a low risk player at his draft capital, which I would agree.

00:24:47
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the better Day three wide receivers that we're gonna find, and now he's reunited with his college quarterback in bo Nicks. The problem is at the fantasy market with players like this, it generally doesn't adjust enough to raft capital. So I can't sit here and say that you should absolutely be in or absolutely be out with Troy Franklin. Just know that analytically, Franklin looks better than most Day three wideouts. One surprise pick to many in the draft was the Rams going after Blake Korum, But when you look at their death chart, it's not that surprising. Behind Kyen Williams, you've got Ronnie Rivers and Zach Evans. That's what you had entering the draft. The Rams were bound to take a running back in this draft, or they were likely to. Did I expect that back to be a Round three Blake koram No. But Korm isn't totally unlike a Kyen Williams type from a size and sort of do it all standpoint, And that's something that Sean mcvayh also said post draft. One thing I want to address about this pick, though, is an email that I received from a listener. I was gonna save this for a mail bag, but I think it's appropriate to talk about here the questions from Garrett, and it says, what are your thoughts on the Korum addition to the Ram and how this affects Kyron in twenty twenty four as a fifth rounder in twenty twenty two. Kyen had a breakout year last season, but Korham comes in with better draft capital and a higher pedigree of college success. Since Todd Gurley left, we've seen a revolving door running back for the Rams, albeit a high scoring one. Could that continue this season? I just don't see why it would continue. We can say that no running back sins Gurley has had sustained success in LA, but no running back Sin's Gurley has had a season like Kyrien Williams just had. You can simply look at fantasy points and see that. But Williams was good with an advanced metrics last year too. That's something that I brought up on the show in the past. I truly see this as a team saying to themselves, look, we really like what Kien Williams does for our offense. We also know that we lack depth, So why don't we go for someone who could not only step in for Williams at times during a game, but also be a great backup if and when Williams gets hurt because the running back position suffers a lot of injuries. I think Korum is a better prospect than Williams was, but we have more information now. Kien Williams in twenty twenty three was better than Kien Williams as a prospect. Maybe he's unable to maintain that pace and be as good in the NFL moving forward, but I don't think the Rams are just assuming that he's still their top back. In my eyes, one team that desperately needed to make a running back move in this draft was the La Chargers. Their depth chart heading into the draft consisted of a twenty nine year old Gus Edwards and JK. Dobbins, who's coming off that Achilles injury. There's Isaiah Spiller two, but he hasn't shown up in the NFL. They did nothing at running backs for the first two days of the draft, but then on Day three they took Troy's Kamani Videl. He got drafted in round six, and my pants flew directly off of my body. Let's first take a moment and temper our expectations. Let's breathe a little bit. Day three running backs don't work out at a high rate. They're not even close to guarantees. But man, this pairing of Videll with the Chargers is so so fun. You might remember a conversation that I had with Matt Waldman about Videll on late round perspectives. Waldman, like myself, was very into him. He can do it all, he's good in pass protection. And Waldman saw a DeAndre Swift comp with Videll, and that makes total sense. In the zapmodel database, there are two running backs who were listened under five foot nine at the NFL Combine while having an above average breakout score and at least a one hundred and five speed score. So they're shorter players who are fast, but they also had pretty good age adjusted production. One of those players was DeAndre Swift, the other one Kamani Videll. People are turned off by smaller school backs, but I found that program size is generally reflected in draft capital. I wouldn't be overly concerned about that. And while Videll is smaller he's still got a big frame with a BMI north of thirty two.

00:29:08
Speaker 2: Now the Prospect.

00:29:08
Speaker 1: Guide it now only shows draft capital delta in a low risk, neutral or high risk bucket. Draft capital delta being how the model views a player versus draft capital. So if the model likes a player a lot more than where he was drafted, he gets tagged with a low risk profile, and if the opposite's true, he gets a high risk profile. Most players generally have a neutral profile, and that's the case for Videll, but it's very very close to being a low risk profile, and low risk profiles have a lot better hit rates. The landing spot for Videll is perfect, and I think the players really underrated. He's a do it all back and he's good in pass protection too, so I think that he's a great rookie draft target even though he's a Day three running back. We've really looked at specific moves that teams actually made today, but sometimes you can learned through in action, and two teams specifically come to mind with that, in Dallas and Cincinnati, neither team picked up a running back when there was a chance that they would. That's especially true for Dallas. Now I had Chase Brown as a cell earlier this offseason, but I did mention that you could wait post draft to sell him. I've never minded him in best ball, but from a managed league standpoint, players with his profile just don't work out very well. That's when looking at my year two model. So his year one production is being strongly considered. But he's no doubt a draft day winner, and I'm no doubt a draft day loser because I talked about selling him even if I had that caveat of waiting. The Bengals look like they're rolling with just Zack Moss and Chase Brown as their one two punch, which honestly pretty smart.

00:30:47
Speaker 2: We know the nature of the running back position.

00:30:48
Speaker 1: We know that it's not that valuable of a position, and that's not a bad one to two punch when you look at their skill sets. But Cincinnati not going running back was a big win for those two players. And then there's Dallas. The Cincinnati thing, you could absolutely understand, made total sense. Brown and Moss can be fine, but Dallas not taking a running back was honestly kind of shocking.

00:31:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, they signed Ezekiel Elliott on Monday.

00:31:15
Speaker 1: That's probably a big reason they didn't get a running back, but their depth chart is terrible. They're really testing the argument of whether or not running backs matter.

00:31:24
Speaker 2: Ezekiel Elliott was not good last year either.

00:31:27
Speaker 1: He finished with a success rate that was over seven percentage points lower than teammate Rimandre Stevenson. His EPA per carry was almost twice as worse according to Next Gen Stats, and then according to PFF among running backs with at least fifty carries last year, Elliott ranked in the bottom quarter percentile in pass blocking grade. Rico Dowdell is the most talented running back in that backfield right now, but it shouldn't shock anyone if Zeke ends up seeing a lot of early down work and then Dowdell plays the old Tony Pollard role. As long as both players have double digit round ADPs and redraft, that's all good and fine. That's not a big deal. Even the late single digits might be fine. And I'm definitely gonna prefer doubt Ole to Zeke. But if one of them get steamed up like we saw with Alexander Madison last year, you know what to do now. As usual, I know there were other storylines and things that I could have talked about on today's podcast, but I thought these were some of the most intriguing things to really talk about and dig into. We've got a lot of time to dissect things and I'm looking forward to doing that, So get your mail bag questions ready for this Friday's episode. But that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Interre to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Like I said, it's a mail bag week this week, so I'll talk to you on Friday.