367: Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings

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Speaker 1: This is the Label podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J zacher Resa, what's up everyone, It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number five dot com in this episode three hundred and sixty seven of the Late Round podcast on many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in the title of this episode kind of says it all. Today, I'm gonna walk through my rookie rankings in order to get you all prepared for the draft, which, by the way, on Thursday and Friday, I'll be streaming live on YouTube with my colleagues Jim Sonas and Brandon Godola, giving you instant reactions to picks as well as projections, real time projections, so when CD Lamb gets drafted in the first round, I'll have his projection ready for consumption. So go subscribe to YouTube dot com slash FanDuel Videos now so that you don't miss the show. That's YouTube dot com slash FanDuel Videos. But for now, let's dig into these rankings. My one on one in rookie drafts this year at least non superflex rookie drafts is Jonathan Taylor, But I actually think that there's a chance that this changes once the draft is over. As Evan Silva pointed out a few episodes ago, and I agree, the NFL doesn't like Taylor as much as fantasy analysts do. Part of it might be because of his pass catching ability, part might be because of the program that he's coming from. But what it means is that he might not have as strong as draft capital as we want if he's a first round pick. I'm all in. Since twenty ten, we've seen fifteen running backs get selected in the first round. Of those fifteen players, only three of them haven't had at least one one thousand yard season. That's in total yards. Two of those players who didn't had their careers ended early due to injuries, David Wilson and Javid Best, and the third one is Rashad Penny, who's still in the league. Now, there's an opportunity and talent component embedded into first round draft capital, and with DeAndre Swift looking like he's ahead of Taylor on draft boards for some team, Swift could jump to this one oh one spot after the draft is over. But as a prospect, Taylor is awesome. In my prospect model, and analytically he comps best to Ezekiel Elliott. My model looks at three main production metrics at running back, which are final season touchdown share, final season reception share, and yards per team play. Taylor is better than Zeke and two of those three, but they're really close throughout. And then Taylor has a ninety nine percentile speed scorer a weight adjusted forty times. He's a really good prospect. DeAndre Swift is my one oh two. I think he's got a chance to make the leap to the first or overall pick, depending on how things go down on Thursday, like I just said, but for now, I've got him behind Taylor. He doesn't look nearly as good as my model because Georgia didn't feature him throughout the twenty nineteen season. Like a lot of Georgia backs, he didn't have a full workload. But if you dig into his numbers, you'll find that they didn't use him in their more irrelevant games. He was a workhorse in their bigger contests. My comparison for Swift is Miles Sanders. Their touchdown shares were really similar during their final season, as were their reception and total yards per team play metrics, I'd say Swift has more upside, though not just because of the draft capital component, but because his numbers are naturally a little bit lower because of how Georgia uses their backs. Now, I currently have Jerry Judy ahead of CD Lamb, which isn't necessarily the norm within the fantasy community. So let me explain why. Within my prospect model, Lamb has the better stat score, which appropriately waits how wide receivers performed in three main production metrics, so similar to the running back model, but those three main metrics are receptions per game, yards per team pass attempt, and touchdown share. Lamb's stat score is a little bit better, but Judy is the better prospect in my model. Why is that well for a few reasons. First off, the stats scores aren't dramatically far off. Lamb does win out in the most predictive metric, which is yards per team pass attempt, but he had a below average reception per game rate and these are all best season numbers. By the way, Judy also had tougher competition. That's factored into things because it does give some signal. So Judy had a slightly worse stat scorer despite having to compete for targets in an offense with multiple pros and potentially multiple first round draft picks. I do think landing spot could change the way that I view the two players, and I think there's an easy argument to be made that Lamb has more upside than Jerry Judy. Maybe things change after Thursday's done, but for now, I've got Judy at three, so let's naturally talk about CD Lamb. Now. Another reason I've got Judy over Lamb is because, honestly, it's just easier to find comps for Jerry Judy. His profile is a lot like Stefan Diggs, whereas Lamb has a profile that comps best to like a Sydney Rice type player. It's not the end of the world by any means, but it's just something that gives me pause because of variance. But Lamb is really really good. Sigmund Blum and I talked about how his yards after catchability just doesn't make any sense, and you'll see that the instant that you watch him. He makes guys miss and you can't comprehend why. He also had a really really good yards per team pass attempt rate, which is a great sign. So I'm all about Lamb and Judy both. I think they're easily the two best wide receivers in this draft class, and they're both deserving of top rookie picks. After Judy and Lamb comes a tier of what I see as three running backs pre draft in single quarterback leagues, I think there's a strong top seven in rookie drafts. At the top of this running back tier, I currently have Cam Akers. It's higher than the majority, but I really think that he has a complete profile. A lot of people will point to what they see as lack of production from cam Akers in college, but I don't see his production profile as lacking at all. Not only did Florida State have one of the worst offensive lines in the country last year according to Football Outsiders line yards metric. But this is why we look at market share. We don't want to compare raw numbers from Jonathan Taylor to Cam Akers because they're in totally different environments. Within the traditional metrics like rushing yard share the percentage of rushing yards seen by a player in his offense, or reception share, attempt share, touchdown share acres. Ranked in the top ten in this class across the board, his numbers aren't even close to bad, they're good. Draft capitol and landingspot can impact this ranking. I wouldn't be surprised if Akers is ranked seventh once the draft is done, but entering the draft, I'm a big fan. I've got JK. Dobbins next at number six, and again, within this tier of three running backs, I could move any of the guys up and down. The main reason I lean Acres over Dobbins right now is honestly just because of size. Dobbins weighed in under two hundred and ten pounds at the combine, and since Acres and Dobbins are so close and ranked for me, I can use it as a quick tiebreaker, even if it's not the most meaningful thing in the world. But Dobbins is a very good running back within my model, yards per team play is the most predictive single metric in terms of production, it's weighed the most, and Dobbins is second in this year's class within that metric, so I'm not gonna be shocked at all if and when he jumps Acres once this draft is over. The same could be said about the last guy in this year, which is Clyde Edwards. Hilaire. I feel like I've liked Ceh more and more as this process has gone on. He comes pretty well to Maurice Jones Drew, and I think that that's the type of juice that he has. Maybe not as much of an early down profile as MJD, but he's definitely one of the probably the best pass catching running back in this class. It's pretty impressive that he was third among all combined invites in final season reception share, considering he played on the best college football team in the country. The question marks are whether or not he can handle a big workload at his five foot seven, two hundred and seven pound frame, But if he can land in a spot like Tampa Bay, I'm all in now. After pick seven in rookie drafts, at least pre draft, things get interesting. You can go in a lot of different directions, and my fourth tier of players includes seven guys, So pre draft the oneh eight to me isn't a ton more valuable than the two to two. So if you're not in a position to get one of those running backs, I think trading back does make sense. I'm sure that'll change slightly after the draft is over, but that's how I'm viewing things right now, Jalen Ragers might pick at one oh eight as the wide receiver three in the start of this tier. My model actually got more signal at wide receiver when looking at their best season within the three major metrics that I'm looking at, so not their final season. And when you do that, combined with factors that go into it, like breakout age, Rager looks pretty awesome. He has a top six stat score despite this ment performance in twenty nineteen. Now keep in mind with that performance that, according to Pro Football Focus, only thirty point seven of Rager's targets in twenty nineteen were charted as accurate. Only three other FBS receivers had it worse this past season. He did it all at TCU in terms of playing all over the field and returning kicks, and I'm really hoping you can find a good landing spot to showcase that versatility. My main comp for him right now is James Washington, but it's more so at James Washington. Plus Rager's a better prospect justin Jefferson's the next player in my rankings at number nine. But I think that there's an easy argument to make that outside of Lamb and Judy Jefferson has the highest floor in this class. He's going to be an awesome slot receiver in the NFL. This past year at LSU, he caught one hundred and eleven passes and get this, PFF charted him as playing out wide on just five of nine hundred and thirty seven snaps. He just lived in the slot and he was productive in a good offense, which is also a good sign. And then he ran a four four three forty and he had a really good combine overall. I think we're looking at someone who could easily make a Cooper Cup like impact in fantasy football at the next level, a higher floor player who in the right offense, can reach a strong ceiling as a dynamic slot receiver if he finds the right spot. I could easily see myself putting him as a number three wide out once this draft is over. At ten on my pre draft rankings list is Denzel Mims. He's risen a lot over the last couple of months, and as you heard on the Wide Receiver Show this past week with Sigmund Bloom, Bloom's really into him too. Mims is super athletic and you can see him use that athleticism to take advantage of corners all the time. He doesn't seem like one of those players who are just tests well and that's it. And as we talked about last week, I do think a place like Green Bay to compliment DeVante Adams would be an awesome landing spot for Denzel Mims. I do have some concerns here though, or I should say my model has some concerns. Mims wasn't overly productive within the metrics that my model looks at, and even though his breakout age is fine, he wasn't in early declare. There's been some good research done by my friend Rich Riebar of Sharp Football Analysis that shows how if he things can get for non early declare wide receivers. That's not something that we should ignore with Denzel Mims. But I do like him a good bit and I think that he should be fantasy relevant at the next level. The same goes for Laviska Chanault. This tier Tier four just has a ton wide receivers who I like a lot, but they've got some standard red flags. For Chanault, You've got to look at his medicals and be a little bit concerned. But there's also the fact that he wasn't more productive during his final season similar to Jalen Rager, which isn't what you like to see, But the man is a wide receiver in a running back's body, and he ranks in the top five in my model an overall stat score. An easy comparison to make is aj Brown, but Brown was a little bit more polished and didn't have the medical concerns that Chanault has. That's just the type of player that we're looking at here. Now. At number twelve is t Higgins. I think he could be the best bigger bodied wide receiver in this class, but there is one I'm going to talk about later who can sneak up on us. But Higgins is sixty four two hundred and sixteen pounds, and even though his production profile wasn't perfect, he did get better each year at Clemson, which is always a plus. A big problem I had with Higgins is just finding a comp His production was average in my model, but Higgins has a pretty good breakout age, and then combining all of that with his size per just made it kind of tough. So I'll be curious to see where he lands. Have a stronger opinion on him as a player post draft, and then there's Henry Ruggs. I've got Rugs as the wide receiver eight, so thirteenth overall, but he's still part of this massive tier four. I feel like I've talked your ears off about Rugs this offseason, but I think what I said on the show last week is probably the most important piece to know about how I feel about him. It's true that his production sucked. It's true that his stat score in my model is not good. And it's true that of all the first round wide receivers with a negative stat score in my model, none of them panned out over the last decade and a half. But I also think a few things are important to note with all of that. Number one, the sample of wide receivers who were drafted that early with a bad stat scorer, it was small. We're talking nine wide receivers over the last decade and a half. So because of that, I think we can be concerned. I think we can worry. We've got to adhere to a process, but we also have to understand that small samples shouldn't dictate everything. It shouldn't overwhelm an evaluation, especially when we know that draft capital is just as important, and Ruggs is likely going to be a first round pick. I do think Ruggs is going to be a better real football asset than a fantasy one. He can do things to shift coverage and help an offense like we've seen with Deshaun Jackson over the years. But of all these wide receivers, I'm super curious for landing spot with Henry Ruggs because realistically, if Ruggs lacks the competition around him, then he'll naturally see at least some bump and volume. Yes, I know that I talk about targets being a skill statistic all the time, and I mean it, but Henry Ruggs going to a team without a ton of pass catchers and decent enough quarterback play is a lot different than him going to Atlanta for short term potential. I ranked him lower pre draft just because I want to see that landing spot. I'm very open to moving Henry Ruggs up after the draft is over. The last player in Tier four for me and fourteenth overall is Zack Moss. He was super productive at Utah, where he went for a thousand plus yards and three seasons, but we also recently have seen a productive Utah back, and DeVante Booker not make a ton of noise at the NFL level, and Moss has some questions about his athleticism. He ran just a four to sixty five forty yard dash, but that does come with a caveat that he apparently had a hamstring injury. But it still puts this thought in your head of what if we're looking at another David Montgomery, just a guy who can be fine but doesn't give you enough upside to be highly sought after. Now, Kareem Hunts another comp that people have thrown around for Zach Moss, but Hunt was also a comp for David Montgomery. Every productive slower back can't just be Kareem Hunt. Moss isn't really the type of back that I usually go for, and he's likely going to be more landing spot dependent than the top tier guys in this class. He's fine, though, which is why I still think that he's part of this big tier four. Now, the next tier starts for me at pick fifteen overall, which is part of the reason I think early second round picks and single quarterback leagues are great value. Right now reflects that extended the middle to the late second round. It's a really deep class. I could go into a lot of directions here, but since these are pre draft rankings, I'm gonna talk about Tyler Johnson. He's fifteenth overall, and he's likely to drop a lot after the draft since teams seem to not like him as much as the analytically focused fantasy analysts. But Johnson has the best stat score in this class. According to my model. His stats score actually ranks in the top fifteen all time or since two thousand and six. That doesn't mean that he's a lock to succeed, though the majority of wide receivers ahead of him and around him were relative successes in terms of stat score. It just means, though, that if he were to get draft capital, especially given his elite breakout age, it means we'd be looking at a really good prospect. But there seemed to be athleticism concerns and he may not be able to separate all that well. So if his draft stock drops and he's a Day three pick, he's got to drop within my rankings too. Brian Edwards is next on my list. Sigmund Blum and I talked abouts in a good bit of detail in last week's show, so I won't go into that much detail, but I'll at least talk about him analytically. According to Pro Football Focus, Edwards had one of the lowest average depth of targets in college football last year, and he caught a ton of screen passes which led to just four deep ball receptions, So that means we have some question marks as to how his game might translate. It's a good thing that South Carolina is trying to get in the ball in easy ways, but it's bad that he didn't show a ton of versatility as a result. But he's got good size and he competed well with Deebo Samuel when Samuel was there in twenty eighteen. If Edward's draft stock doesn't drop because of this offseason foot injury that he's been dealing with, then he should be a really solid second round rookie pick. I've got Key Sean Vaughn at seventeen, as is the case with most potential Day two running backs, and I stressed the word potential. Vaughn could go in a lot of different directions post draft. I really have him here because I think he's an underrated back in terms of how complete his profile is. He did it all at Vanderbilt and his final season numbers are pretty awesome. He had forty eight percent of Vanderbilt's touchdowns last year, fourteen percent of their receptions, and he had a yards per team play of one point seventy five that was fifth best amongst running backs in this class. And he has good size and speed. He's just solid. I know I sound like a broken record, but this is truer for running backs and that wide receiver if he falls to the right spot. I like Vaughn to make a fantasy impact. So my initial pre draft rankings that I posted on number five had Brandon Ayyuk at eighteen, but I'm switching it up for this show because Michael Pittman has been rising for me. I've got Pittman at eighteen right now. Pittman's another bigger, bodied receiver who caught one hundred and one passes at USC last year and an offense that had some competition for targets, and he's gotten above average stat score compared to the other wide receivers in this class. The one piece of downside is similar to what I talked about with Denzel Mims earlier, and it's that Pittman didn't declare early, but he's we got the physicality and athleticism to go along with his big size to have a shot to be in alpha in this class. I think that's the thing that intrigues me. A lot of the wide receivers in this class are really good, but not necessarily outstanding. They have their particular jobs where they can do things really, really well. But with Pittman there's a really high ceiling, which is why I think he's a really solid later second round pick in rookie drafts if you can get him there. Now. Nineteen is where I have Brandon Ayuk. I talked about Ayuk on last week's Mailbag episode. He's got a unique profile and that he played two years of juco ball, then he goes to Arizona State and he plays with Nikhil Harry, and then he finally has his big season during his final collegiate season. Some people will say that it's not fair to judge a guy who played juco ball to start his career, but part of the reason we look at breakout age in the first place is to make sure that we're looking at prospects who were good throughout the entire process guys who were young and so good at a young age that they were seeing significant production. That gives us strong signal. I don't think Ayuk is bad though. I just think that we're sitting with a non early declare who also broke out late, which is always a red flag. The good part about his profile is that he's a strong athlete who can generate a lot of yards after the catch, and he has a kick and punt return profile which does show versatility. So there's a little bit of a backbone there. So there are issues with Ayuk's profile, but I still think he's a top twenty guy in this class. Now, the last player in my top twenty, so the twentieth rank guy is Eno Benjamin. Benjamin weighed in at two hundred and seven pounds of the combine, which was actually twelve pounds more than his senior bowlweight. That was a big deal because he was likely to be typecasted as a third down back at the next level, and maybe that changes things at least a little bit. But that might be the case. Maybe that's the role that he plays. He's more of a satellite back that can still be valuable in fantasy, though Benjamin had by far the highest final season reception share mark in this year's class, and he had a very comple lead production profile. Overall. I think he can be a high floor player if he gets that satellite role at the NFL level right away. So those are my top twenty players who just missed it or Joe Burrow, who should be considered the one oh one are close to that spot in super flex leagues, but Joe Burrow is the quarterback that you want, and I really like Darrnton Evans from Appalachian State, Antonio Gibson from Memphis, and two semi deep sleepers that you could be targeting or two guys to at least watch during this draft are wide receiver Gabriel Davis from UCF and then Anthony McFarlane from Maryland. As you can tell with my running back picks, I'm into the super dynamic, speedy guys. Darrenton Evans, Antonio Gibson, and Anthony McFarlane are all really fun prospects. But hopefully this helps you guys wrap your heads around my favorite players in this year's class and you can have some more context around these guys when they're drafted this week. It should be a fun time. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. I'll have a rewind episode on Wednesday, And don't forget to subscribe to fanduels YouTube channels that you don't miss our live stream. Remember it's YouTube dot com slash FanDuel videos. Thanks everyone, talk to you soon.