Late-Round Perspectives: Jim Coventry

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Jim Coventry is a fantasy analyst that wrote a wire and hosted Serious XM Fantasy. He was a Fantasy Sports Writers Association finalist for Football Writer of the Year in twenty twenty two. He's a retired English teacher. He's a published author, and he loves to bring passion to his analysis. These are his late round perspectives.

00:00:28
Speaker 2: I very rarely walk out of any draft saying it was a good draft.

00:00:31
Speaker 3: You never do that. I left that when I go, this is a good team.

00:00:34
Speaker 2: I'll probably go one fourteen when I said that, but I go, this is a good team.

00:00:37
Speaker 4: I remember.

00:00:38
Speaker 1: I remember that draft vividly, so for people who are listening and don't know, the King's Classic is the draft that we do in Jim and I are in the in the same division, and we do this draft every year and we do an it's a snake draft followed by an auction draft, so we do I mean it is literally, I mean when do we start.

00:00:54
Speaker 4: It's like nine to five basically, right, like.

00:00:56
Speaker 3: Yes, exactly exactly.

00:00:57
Speaker 1: It's literally just like a workday, and it's us in the Hall of Fame drafting back to back team. So like we do the Snake Draft first, and then we take a lunch break, and then we do the Auction Draft and there's people watching us, and we're hopping on serious XM and we're doing you know, we're covering it in every angle. We're talking junk to one another. It's a lot of fun. It's it's I wore my belt last year, did summer?

00:01:19
Speaker 3: You did?

00:01:20
Speaker 1: And look, hey, if you win the Auction League I expect you to be to be holding that belt next.

00:01:25
Speaker 3: Oh no, no, no, no. My goal is to win both.

00:01:28
Speaker 2: And yes, because I'm I'm I'm six or three, I'm like ten points behind in the in the other league, the other one.

00:01:35
Speaker 4: The other one I'm in. I'm in first in the other one right now.

00:01:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, but with points, I'm like ten or fifteen points. Yeah, whoever has the most points. And I want to. I want to because of you last year, because of you carrying that belt. I said, I want to carry two over my shoulders this year, and I want to flex while I'm doing it.

00:01:50
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, there's nothing that I want more than to win the Snake Draft, to get the Snake Snake League again, and just have.

00:01:56
Speaker 4: Just two belt walking in back to back in a fourteen team.

00:01:59
Speaker 1: This league, again, for those of you who are aren't aware, this league is start one quarterback, two running back, three wide receiver, three flex and it's a fourteen teamer and there's like six guys in the bench. So like I was amped when I got Devon Velea for three dollars out the waiver wires, right, you know, like like that's the way that this thing goes is like we we get we get pumped about these like really tertiary secondary type players that you know, every time I do like my fifteen Transactions article where I'm telling talking to people about who to who to add and drop and buy and sell, but the ad segment, I'm always thinking like, Okay, I don't need to necessarily recommend this player, but this is definitely a player that I'm going after in.

00:02:35
Speaker 4: The King's Classic. You know, That's just the way it is, one hundred percent.

00:02:38
Speaker 2: And with those auctions, because there's four IR spots and that's huge because the waiver wire is barren. So if you don't auction a team that where you could get close to double digit points from everybody in the starting lineup.

00:02:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, once injuries hit, you're done. You're done.

00:02:57
Speaker 4: You're done. It's so true. That's the one.

00:02:59
Speaker 1: The one downside the you know, super large rosters is the fact that like like I, I only had Tyreek Hill exposure literally in these two leagues, and I got him in both of them because I remember in the auction like I was trying.

00:03:11
Speaker 4: To bid him up a little bit and then I got stuck with him, and then I.

00:03:13
Speaker 1: Took him in the third and the Snake, and he was actually looking like a decent pick before the injury, you know. And when that happens though in these big leagues, you you know, you get screwed a little bit because it's just really hard to make up for that. But crossing my fingers that look about how about this. You take the auction, let me take the snake, and then we can celebrate, you know, next summer when we're in Canton together.

00:03:32
Speaker 3: Because that belt over my shoulder as an auction belt.

00:03:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, well then we can both have two of each.

00:03:37
Speaker 3: Then we could do that. We could do that.

00:03:39
Speaker 2: It's man, And last year I could have had one last year, but man, I ran into I ran to the Patrick Doherty Buzzy. He had Jonathan Taylor and Bucky Irving, and man, I.

00:03:48
Speaker 1: Was like, come on, he was he because he was in the championship and both I beat him in the Snake Draft championship last year, and I look, I couldn't. I couldn't let one person win both leagues. I mean he was he just ran hot. I mean he had he had great teams in both leagues, just like what you're doing this year.

00:04:02
Speaker 4: So I can't let it happen. I gotta do what I can to make it stop, you know.

00:04:06
Speaker 1: Bit again all right, So with every perspective's guest Jim, I like to kick things off by, you.

00:04:11
Speaker 4: Know, sort of like a let people get to know you a little bit better.

00:04:15
Speaker 1: You know, we've gotten to chat now for the last couple of years, last few years at the expo, which has been awesome, and get to know each other a little bit. But let everyone know, like what your journey is, how you got into this crazy world of fantasy football, and you know what you're all about.

00:04:28
Speaker 3: Fun story. Actually I was playing.

00:04:30
Speaker 2: I'm old, so I've been playing fantasy sports is ninety four long time unore around thirty one years or whatever, something crazy like that. But anyway, I had met the woman who I'm married to now in twenty oh five, and she realized that I spent my sundays doing nothing but watching football.

00:04:48
Speaker 3: To what she said, well, that's not going to work.

00:04:51
Speaker 2: And as the continuation of the discussion goes on, she goes, well, you better find a way to make money doing this. So I had already won one of those national contest for fantasies. I knew a little bit of something about it, and I was an English teacher and I knew how to write, and so basically the meg at the time, it was still the magazine culture.

00:05:10
Speaker 3: It wasn't like the heavy online culture was there.

00:05:12
Speaker 2: So I basically found out contact information from a number of companies and a cold called some places and so John Hanson, a fantasy guru, I asked them for the first I go, let me just write for free for one year because I just want to get some raticles written. And he was cool with that, let me do that, and it worked out. Then after that, Lenny Papano over Draft Sharks hired me. I worked at him for eight years I was still teaching, and then Rodeo Wire gave me the opportunity to work full time with them, and that's been phenomenal. But then I retired from teaching three years ago, and it's it's crazy, JJ, because you think you know something about football but you're doing it part time, and then you retire and all of a sudden, the levels that you can get to beyond what.

00:05:54
Speaker 3: You thought you knew, Yeah, it gets better. I didn't know.

00:05:58
Speaker 2: I didn't know, but I realized, Wow, I am a significantly better analyst than I am than when I thought I knew something before.

00:06:06
Speaker 1: The crazy thing is that, like I always look at people who are starting on the space, and I know the majority of people who are doing fantasy analysis have full time jobs, you know, doing other things. And you know, I was there, you were obviously there, Like we've all like experienced that, and it's crazy like when you go from you know now, like me personally, I have like other I'm trying to run this business and stuff like there's other things, but for sure I'm digging into this stuff way more than I was when you know, I was in my previous life doing what I was doing, which fortunately for me, I was able to get into the fantasy space pretty early on. But like, yeah, I mean, like I think that anyone who's like trying to do this, and you're frustrated and you're like, man, these people are like coming up with some crazy stuff, and how are they thinking that, you know, digging into that.

00:06:49
Speaker 4: It's just time, right, it's just and there's still stuff there.

00:06:52
Speaker 1: I'm sure for you too, there's still stuff that I want to dig into that I can't even dig into because there's just not enough time to be able to do that.

00:06:59
Speaker 3: You're right, you do run out of time.

00:07:01
Speaker 2: But as you're pointing out, it is crazy the levels you can get to, the micro stuff that you can find, and then the more you do year upon your it builds, it like builds on the synapses and the hooks in your memory, and now the aggregation of information is even greater, and it's exponential at someone it doesn't just add, it becomes exponential. So it's an unfair advantage. But we're blessed to be able to share the little bit we know with people that care to know what we.

00:07:29
Speaker 4: Know one hundred percent, hundred percent.

00:07:31
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the other thing too, is that the more you do this stuff, the more you get quicker at finding things and doing you know, figuring things out that way, and then you know you build out these spreadsheets and stuff that you're just always updating and like it's a lot easier to reference stuff, and you just get better. You know, it's like any other skill. You just hopefully you know, you don't you know, you don't miss too too much, you know, because it's inevitable that we will miss plenty. But do you think that like your your teaching background has helped you a lot because you are in a sense still teaching in a way with this.

00:08:00
Speaker 3: Yes, I mean connecting with audience.

00:08:01
Speaker 2: I had to connect with teenagers and good luck with that, right, but they love coming to my class and what I learned you.

00:08:08
Speaker 4: Would be I gotta say, you'd be an awesome teacher. I would love to have you with thank you. Yeah.

00:08:13
Speaker 2: My students would speak to me on occasion about things that were at school. They such as they enjoyed coming to class. They would say, you have like a passion about things.

00:08:22
Speaker 3: Do you speak with passion? And it meant a lot.

00:08:25
Speaker 2: It got them into it, and so you were able to, you know, kind of attract the crowd, keeping beyond the three minute attention span that most people have because of social media. But yes, so I think that's one thing and then also learning you never speak at people, and I learned at teaching you speak to people and you speak with people, and I think that has carried over so when I'm on XM or I'm doing shows, I don't ever want to talk at people.

00:08:53
Speaker 3: I want it to be a conversation and I want to have and I love it.

00:08:56
Speaker 2: Sort the passions naturally there, and I think that all trans so I think it's been a nice interaction with me and the audiences.

00:09:03
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:09:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, the passion part is really like interesting to me too, because I do the solo show with the late Round podcasts and stuff, and like some people think that I'm like yelling at them sometimes.

00:09:13
Speaker 4: First off, that's my personality.

00:09:14
Speaker 1: You and I are both very passionate people just in general, so it's just part of our personality. But then also when you're trying to do something solo like that, whether you're being a teacher or whether and you're trying to connect with an audience and you know, get their attention, you kind of have to be you know, take it from like a seventy five to a ninety five. You know, you gotta you gotta, you gotta amp it up a little bit because that because then people will listen to like late round perspectives. And I'm not like as amped as out because I want, you know, to just have a conversation with people and stuff like that, and.

00:09:43
Speaker 4: It's just a little bit of a different dynamic.

00:09:45
Speaker 1: But when you're solo, you have to you know, when you're up there lecturing students, or when you're up there or when you're doing a solo job on on serious XM or something like that, like you have to take it to another level or else people are just gonna tune out.

00:09:58
Speaker 3: You know, they're not biting in the play because there's no running back. That's right, Yes, I like it.

00:10:04
Speaker 4: I like it. All right, let's talk about football.

00:10:06
Speaker 1: Something I love about what you do with your analysis is that you really will look at x's and o's and come at it not just from like a strictly data perspective.

00:10:15
Speaker 4: All the time.

00:10:15
Speaker 1: You had some really interesting insights I remember even at the expo and some like on our panel that we do every year this summer. So I got to ask you, so, as you're watching football this season, are there any sort of like macro trends that maybe entering the season you didn't think were going to happen and they're surprising you a little bit, or maybe they've just continued on and now you're like, Wow, this definitely is a trend that's happening in the NFL.

00:10:38
Speaker 2: The big one that I was on and what you referenced from the expo is I had noticed last year there was an incredibly large number of plays with only two linebackers on the field. The former NFL based defense had three and even four linebackers on the field. Linebackers are your thumpers. They're the ones that are blasting your running backs, right, And I noticed two. I noticed that there were two linebackers on the field and that was about sixty five percent of the time last year. That's gone up to seventy I'll circle us all together in a minute. But the other thing I noticed was, and I knew this on my own, linebackers were smaller than ever. Because NFL defenses are concerned about stopping the pass. You need faster linebackers to get to people who are catching the football.

00:11:21
Speaker 3: Well, what does that mean?

00:11:22
Speaker 2: They're not bigger players who are going to blow up your running backs every play. Because at the end of last season, this is where it began. A chan didn't get hurt, Kyrian Williams didn't get hurt, James Connor barely got hurt till super late in the season. And we're looking at all these running backs and there were like really few injuries or running backs. The McCaffrey injury was a preseason training injury, had nothing to do with football for the most part. And I said to myself, you know what, the easy answer is going to be anomaly. Every year there's some anomaly and it's not repeatable. But that's where I started looking into how often were two linebackers on the field, how much they weigh. The average weight of a linebackers down to two it used to be two forty five, significantly different.

00:12:03
Speaker 3: And here's the other thing.

00:12:04
Speaker 2: When there's only two linebackers on the field, you got five offensive linemen facing either three or four usually four down linemen, and you've got two linebackers. We got five linemen and a tight end. You could get a hat on every one of those players. So and I noticed I was watching running backs were often not taking the kill shots which they used to take, and I believe that warn them mount So here was my take. My take was running backs. There will still be twist and ankles. That's gonna happen. You're gonna pull a Hampshire. But the injury rate for running backs is gonna go down significantly because the type and the number of players on the field, and that mostly is held this year. And that helped people that listen to myself in fantasy because they invested in running backs early, not wide receivers, and they mostly have had good injury luck. Now if we screwed up on Bresee Hall because he didn't played, well, that's another story.

00:12:55
Speaker 4: Sure, sure, of course, of course.

00:12:57
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:12:57
Speaker 4: I think that like obviously there was gonna.

00:12:59
Speaker 1: Be like some general regression with running back injuries from last year just because it was almost impossible for their not to be you know.

00:13:05
Speaker 4: But I do think that's a really good point, Like people.

00:13:07
Speaker 1: Are gonna be listening to be like, oh some guy, Yes, some guys are gonna get hurt. You're not saying that they're not, you know, like it's inevitable that it's gonna happen. But yeah, I think it's a really interesting take. I also think that what you're talking about defenses and stuff like that's that to me is a big reason why we see this twelve personnel uptick that we've seen just generally. I mean, teams are running twelve personnel like some some teams will run tons and tons of twelve personnel, and that all of a sudden just changes the dynamic of how usable the wide receivers are on those teams, you know, the number three guys and the slot guys. I mean there's some slot players that just don't find the field because there are they're running these two tight.

00:13:42
Speaker 4: End sets and it's just that they're just not able to you.

00:13:44
Speaker 2: Know, exactly correct, and teams learn it. It's chess game. The NFL is always chess. And you said the reaction to the like personnel of defense was heavier personnel on offense. You have more blockers, you can you can run more effectively because you can over power the defense. Now, this idea about the light personnel and the two linebackers, I think that's not going to change for a few years. First of all, the types of players that have been drafted and cultivated are these lighter players. So to go back the heavier players, that's not going to happen overnight. But I still think the premium is going to be on stopping explosive plays in the passame defenses are willing to let you run a fourteen play drive because there could be a holding call, there could be a fumble, there could be a tip pass. All those things can break a drive down. But if it's a one play, eighty hour drive, there's no changing that.

00:14:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes it. It makes a ton of sense. What do you think of this? As not related to any of that, but it's I still think it's pretty interesting from like a trend that we're seeing this year is the quarterbacks with the guys who coming from other teams that were kind of a rejects that there are other teams, you know, guys who we all thought their careers were over. Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold. You know obviously we had Baker Mayfield last year. I mean you could even throw Aaron Rodgers in there to a degree, like he's not playing amazing football, but he's doing what he needs to just generally do with that like really low average up to target, you know work that he's doing this Arthur Smith offense. I'm curious, like do you think that teams and this is just like a more of like we're just chilling at the bar kind of talk like this is not like some super nuanced, you know, like super detailed you know.

00:15:16
Speaker 4: Stants or anything.

00:15:17
Speaker 1: But I'm really curious if you think that teams moving forward are going to try to maybe take on these projects like a Kyler Murray because it sounds like that's not going through direction and area. That's good, Yeah, right, Like, because there are obviously only so many players that are capable of even playing quarterback. But even like you see these guys in these different invicts, Joe Flacco going from Cleveland to Cincinnati and all of a sudden, you know, he's at least putting up crazy, crazy numbers with these wide outs in this situation, like, do you think that teams.

00:15:45
Speaker 4: Are gonna just kind of lean into that a little bit more moving forward?

00:15:49
Speaker 2: The teams that don't have a good quarterback will have no choice but to try. Yeah, right right now, JJ, I want to weave this in though you brought this up and actually have the trends coming in from last year, and I did about the personal but this one relates what you asked me.

00:16:03
Speaker 3: I was furious in the offseason.

00:16:06
Speaker 2: Because everybody was saying, oh man, Liam Cohen's going to Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence is going to be Baker Mayfield now, And I got furious because the whole the NFL community and the fantasy community totally does not understand Baker Mayfield. Mayfield comes in the league in twenty eighteen, Right, fourteen games, twenty seven touchdowns, fourteen picks.

00:16:25
Speaker 3: That was a great season. Right. The second year is the year Freddy Kitchen just forgot how to coach.

00:16:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think a lot of us forgot about that season.

00:16:32
Speaker 2: But yeah, yes, Baker comes back the next year. Twenty six touchdowns, eight picks, leads him into the playoffs, but there was an injury. I think Nick Chubb maybe got hurt anyway. Then the twenty twenty one he's he hurts both shoulders and that's when he became an outcast. He threw seventeen touchdowns, thirteen picks, but the man had no shoulders.

00:16:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, so everybody said he's done.

00:16:51
Speaker 2: So then that reclamation year in Carolina and the Rams were obviously just floated around the league. But since then, twenty eight touchdowns with the Tampa Bay and then Cohen comes in, he throws the forty one. I get the career your thing, but Baker Mayfield is never a bad quarterback. He had two bad years. One was Freddy Kitchen's fault. The other was that he didn't have a shoulder to throw the football with. So anyway, I was saying all off season, Trevor Lawrence ain't getting fixed here because Liam Cohen wasn't a miracle worker. He got a guy to a career here, Yes, but he didn't have a terrible quarterback. So to answer your question, Sam darn last year went to Minnesota, loved it because the infrastructure was there, he knew he had offensive line schemed open guys that worked for about fifteen weeks. And this year Clint Kubiak that works well for him too, a lot of boot action getting him moving. So I think it's finding those reclamation quarterbacks you're talking about, if they are put into a system.

00:17:44
Speaker 3: And Daniel Jones, he's been.

00:17:45
Speaker 2: A point guard. Yeah, very good point guard. The running game works, the line is great. He has a different type of receiver at every area.

00:17:52
Speaker 3: Go ahead.

00:17:52
Speaker 1: Well, I was just gonna say with Daniel Jones in particular, like the short intermediate stuff was never really his problem, you know, and that's where he can now where he's at in Indianapolis.

00:18:03
Speaker 2: Yes, So to answer your question, is long as that quarterback is in an infrastructure that works, yeah.

00:18:10
Speaker 3: It's gonna work, but that doesn't that's hard to find.

00:18:13
Speaker 4: That it's hard to find, and it's a lot.

00:18:15
Speaker 1: And it's also one of those things too where it's like, you know, not only is it hard to find and find that match just from like an NFL team building standpoint, but us as as people who are playing fantasy football pinpointing where that will happen and not letting recency bias slash you know, sort of a just a general bias of us saying like, hey, look like these guys work, so therefore this guy's gonna work, and ignoring you know, a confirmation bias and ignoring the guys who didn't work, which happens too.

00:18:45
Speaker 4: That's that's a difficult thing to do.

00:18:47
Speaker 1: So I think that is a really good thing to throw out there and remind people that we can sit here all day and say this is gonna happen again in the future, right because it will probably happen again in the future, might probably happen next year, but right it does you know, the common nation of scheme and coach with that quarterback talent definitely matters a lot. I want to ask you also, this is you know, we're in week ten now, this is the home stretch. We got one more month, a little a little bit over a month until we hit like the fantasy playoffs and stuff. Are you managing your rosters any differently now than you were weeks one and two?

00:19:20
Speaker 2: In the leagues that they have a waiver wire and like the King's Classic, where like you know, the third string tight end is the top guy in the waiver wire, but.

00:19:27
Speaker 4: Three tight ends every week.

00:19:30
Speaker 2: Moment you're playing thirteen personnel, and it's a fantasy league.

00:19:33
Speaker 3: That's not exactly any way. They you're that one up.

00:19:36
Speaker 2: So for everybody out there, though, it's pretty simple to me this point of the year. If your team is in playoff contention, now you're taking fewer lottery tickets. You are looking to find players who can get you a floor of points if somebody gets hurt. You don't want the boomer bust guy who you already kind of know that that player is kind of not having that season. But if your bench guy is that, and your starter goes down and you're in the fantasy playof and you're in a wild card game and your guy gets you a one point two season's toast. But if you got a guy in the waiver red scoring seven points, then you know what that player for an injury replacement may be much better use to building your playoff roster because you're just hedging for injury at this point. You're praying the injuries don't strike, but if they do, you don't want the boom er bus guy.

00:20:20
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:20:21
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:20:21
Speaker 1: And also you know, from a running back perspective, it's it's even easier. I think as an example where it's like, all right, you're sitting here, you're in for you know, you're nine to zero in the auction, you're probably looking at your running back saying, I mean King's Classic is a bad example because no backup running backs are basically available at this point. But but you know, if you have if you have Kyrien Williams, you should have Blake corm if you're if you're in a position right now where and then I would argue strongly that if you're four and.

00:20:46
Speaker 4: Five and you're like and if you playoff team or three and.

00:20:49
Speaker 1: Six, pick up Blake Coream and then if that injury does happen, then all of a sudden, you do have that lottery ticket that can that can really help you out.

00:20:56
Speaker 3: So that is a big difference, one hundred percent correct.

00:20:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's talk about trade deadline. It happened.

00:21:02
Speaker 4: It was.

00:21:02
Speaker 1: It was predictably not nearly as fun as we hoped it would be. There were some rumors that Breece Hall was There was an offer for Breeze Hall of a fourth rounder from Kansas City when they wanted a third rounder. If Brice Hall would have gone in Kansas City, I would have broken Fantasy Football Twitter for sure. I mean people would have would have just gotten nuts. But we did get you know, some moves. Are there any trade deadline sprit Maybe the Breeze Hall thing is a surprise to you, but we were there any surprises stemming from that trade deadline, whether they were moves.

00:21:31
Speaker 4: That were made or weren't made.

00:21:34
Speaker 2: Since I know we'll talk about skilled position players later, I will point out the Colts in the Seahawks made moves that make us think that they believe they can win right now. Yeah, yeah, Colts might be in the conference at Buffalo and Kansas City and to a degree Baltimore. I know they have had a great season, but that could change fast. But the fact that Colts went out and got a corner the Governor may not have played at the Levely did early in his career, but it's a huge upgrade on what the secondary was like in Indie. So I think that move tells us how they feel about him, that this could be their ear and the Seahawks realistically as well. We'll talk about Shahid later, but making that move on offense that also tells you because their defense is the real deal, but they do need to have a little more versatility on their office. So I think that was really important. And of course the Eagles, this wasn't a surprise, but in fact, how do they do it? Qurnerback, Michael Kuhr, not a trade deadline deal like a week ago, Jalen Phillips who already knows Fangio's defense and loved playing for him, and not that Jayry Alexander is going to be good or a thing, but depth, how do the Eagles keep doing it?

00:22:39
Speaker 4: I just wish other gms were as aggressive as how he is.

00:22:43
Speaker 1: It would just make it more fun for everybody, you know, And I think that there's like a lot of gms, and you know this, this trickles down into coaching staffs too in the NFL, where they play scared because they don't want to make some move that can cost them their job because ownership is breathing down their neck, where really, realistically it should be the opposite kind of relationship, where it should be like, no, you're secure, things are good.

00:23:04
Speaker 4: Let's do what's most optimal and what's smartest.

00:23:06
Speaker 1: But I do think that, you know, it's interesting that the teams that made those moves were the two teams you mentioned, Seattle and Indianapolis.

00:23:14
Speaker 4: Were the two teams that maybe didn't feel.

00:23:17
Speaker 1: Like I think they feel okay about what's going on a quarterback, don't get me wrong, but when you have Josh Allen, when you have Patrick Mahomes, when you have Lamar Jett, whoever it is, you just generally are gonna feel like you can overcome almost anything, you know, And so those gms in those front offices are probably like, no, we don't need to be that aggressive and doing something here, whereas the cult are like, okay, maybe we get you know, week nine, Daniel Jones in the playoffs or something.

00:23:41
Speaker 4: And if that happens.

00:23:42
Speaker 1: We can still overcome this because now we have one of the best corners in the league on our team and we can you know, do well defensively. Seeh I think that was that was definitely a nice little a nice little surprise, like the Sauce Gardner trade.

00:23:54
Speaker 4: To me was just I was pretty shocked by that happening.

00:23:56
Speaker 2: Bonkers did not see it. I would not have predicted in a million years. But it was the smart move.

00:24:02
Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent. And then you know, some of the other like non.

00:24:05
Speaker 1: Moves, you know, when you look at like New England was rumored to get like a Tony Pollard, and then there were some reports about how.

00:24:11
Speaker 4: Tennessee doesn't want to deal with New England because I'm like Rabel.

00:24:13
Speaker 1: But like you know, regardless of all that, some of the non moves are still important to look at here too, because you know, at the time of this recording, we have no idea what's going on with like Ramondre Stevenson, if he's gonna play this weekend or not. But the fact that they didn't go out and do anything, it could signal either Stevenson's healthy, like one of these things. Just to think through them could signal that Stevenson's healthier than we think right now, maybe he's Maybe this isn't like a long term thing. Maybe it still is, though, And they like what they saw in Trayveon and the Treel Jennings kind of combination this past weekend.

00:24:44
Speaker 4: Like got to think through that kind of stuff as well.

00:24:47
Speaker 1: And you know, Kansas City they did offer that fourth, but they wouldn't offer that third for Breeze And does that mean that they feel comfortable enough with the trio that they have. Who knows, But I think thinking through, you know, the stuff that didn't happen a well is still pretty important.

00:25:02
Speaker 2: Kansas City was interesting. They were smart not to offer a third. It's a Day two pick a team they they have to build through the draft. They have so much money invested in the quarterback and in Chris Jones. They they have to use their draft. It's so important to them. It's not a team that's gonna have a bunch of money to spend in free agency. So they probably stood firm on that fourth. They probably were countered with a third, and I think organizationally they probably want to give it a fourth, but they probably saw the potential to help them win this year.

00:25:31
Speaker 3: But it was smart. It was very responsible of them not to do that.

00:25:34
Speaker 4: Yeah, it'd be really hard.

00:25:35
Speaker 1: I mean, if I were a GM I'd just be like, all right, fine, we'll do it. I'm just I just want a fun player on my team. It'll be it'll be a good time. But yeah, you're right, I mean it was. It showed really good constraint. Let's talk about Jacobe Myers going to Jacksonville. What do you think of this fit in Jacksonville? Do you think that this is a big upgrade for the offense in general? Do you think it's signals that Brian Thomas and they're not feeling great about him and that injury and just his play this year, Like where are.

00:25:58
Speaker 4: You at with that offense? Not passing attack?

00:26:01
Speaker 2: Jacoby Myers is a very important piece for what they want to do.

00:26:06
Speaker 3: This team wants to throw in the middle of the field.

00:26:08
Speaker 2: Those who are watching the games, it's very clear that Brian Thomas is not comfortable in the middle of the field either. It's alligator arms, not running a route through, not catching the ball. He is squeamish for some reason in the middle of the field. On the perimeter, fine enough, Travis Hunter. We don't know how long he's down, and again back to BTJ, we don't know how long is high ankle'll lasts. But the other thing is they have Parker Washington who was playing a little bit. You would expect Washington be a full time slot receiver.

00:26:32
Speaker 3: He's not. Two thirds of his snaps been on the outside.

00:26:35
Speaker 2: So Jacoby Myers was playing about sixty five percent slot roughly for Vegas. But he has a long history of being able to play in the slaughter outside. The reason is important they want to use the middle of the field. They need a receiver who can be very competent there. But the one thing that Liam Cohne has done with Trevor Lawrence is making a point to get the ball out quickly. Well, Myers is a player who'll be in a site line, be reliable, doesn't drop pass us little problem that Jacksonville, but players dropping passes, So Myers kind of checks those boxes. He helps keep the offense on schedule. So I think he's going to be like a PPR magnet there for the way they run their offense.

00:27:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's a good call.

00:27:13
Speaker 1: You know, they came out and they said that at least this week, we'll probably see Parker Washington the slot more, just because they said that it was easier for Jacoby Myers to kind of learn, you know, that perimeter role, you know, given it his first week. I see it too, like Jacoby Myers is good inside and out, Like he's not just only a slot guy and everyone kind of type casts him that way, but he very much can play everywhere across the line. And to me, like you're you're one hundred percent right with the way that they want to funnel their looks and their target They did that in Tampa Bay last year too with Liam Cohen. You know, that's why Chris Godwin was having the year that he was having, and so they definitely want to do that. And then you know last week Parker Washington. He's had two games with a fifty percent or better slot rate this year, and in both of those games he's had a twenty eight and twenty seven percent target year. I mean, he just gets peppered with when he does run in the slot. And so to me, I think they looked at this and they said, we want some versatility across the line where we can throw guys everywhere and not just feel like we have to run this offense through only a Parker Washington type player now that Travis Hunter's sideline. So they said, let's get a guy that at least gives us options. You know, even if Jacoby Myers plays more perimeter than we expect or something like, they at least now have versatility at the line, moving guys play by play, inside out, shifting guys around. They didn't have that before at all, and I think I think from that perspective, it made a lot of sense for Jacksonville to go out and get Jacoby Myers.

00:28:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, they clearly think they're making the playoffs. Record wise would indicate that. I don't know that they actually do that.

00:28:43
Speaker 3: But that said, they have to play as if they are.

00:28:46
Speaker 4: Right one percent.

00:28:48
Speaker 1: Let's do the same thing now with Rashid Shaheed, Is is Cooper cup Toast, is Tory Horton Toast. You know, this is another team that has run a lot of twelve personnel, I mean, second most in the league behind only.

00:28:59
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh running more. That's it. So how do you see Shahied fitting in Seattle?

00:29:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, we already knew going into the year they'd be real heavy personnel. For two reasons. One is Clint Kopiak was there, and that's a staple. But the other thing was when he looked at their offensive roster, is JSN an old Cooper Cup and then you know late round draft pick Tory Orton, So you knew based on personnel and Kubiak that's how it would go.

00:29:21
Speaker 3: But here's the thing.

00:29:22
Speaker 2: First of all, don't everybody out there remember Shaheed played with Clint Kubiak, so he knows the offense. Kubiak knows exactly what he's getting, and I think this trade is for the playoffs. I don't think it's for week ten, eleven, twelve, because right now this offense can win in most situations. But when they get in the playoffs and Sam Darnold is gonna get heated up, whether it's the Rams playing them or the Eagles with a rejuvenated pass rush, somebody's gonna send a lot of heated him. And they need somebody to clear the field out for JSN because he get really compressed otherwise.

00:29:57
Speaker 3: So having Shaheed and she heats this not a deep tread. She he can run.

00:30:00
Speaker 2: Routes at all levels of the field, but he is a weapon who can improve the whole entire offense. When y're two receiver sets, they're gonna have to strongly consider putting him in over Cup. Now, Cups like a third tight end. Cupp is a great blocker, and that's what he's being used as he's out right now with an injury. So that's what they're gonna have to balance because you don't want it to be where Cups on the field were running and if she heats on the field were passive, you don't really want that. So they're gonna have to figure out how that works. But they play such different roles. But Cup is a blocker at the stage.

00:30:34
Speaker 4: Yeah, I couldn't agree more.

00:30:35
Speaker 1: I mean, look, and right now, you're pairing Sam Darnold highest average at the target in the league right now with Rashid Shaheed who this year this year with the Saints had like an eleven point three to eight dollars or so last year with Klin Kubiak eighteen point one average at the target. I mean, you're pairing a strong arm quarterback who gets the ball downfield with one of the best deep threats in football. To be honest with you, I mean underrated, sure, but a really good to get behind the defense kind of player.

00:31:02
Speaker 4: And so from that standpoint, I think it makes a lot of sense.

00:31:05
Speaker 1: And you know, you're getting insurance too for like a I don't want to say this thing like and people take away that I think Tory Horton is ahead of him in the depth chart, but you're getting insurance just at the position in general, right where you're not having to rely on a day three guy who's definitely played well.

00:31:21
Speaker 4: I think Tory Horton has a bright future.

00:31:23
Speaker 1: But yes, so if you're going to be a serious team that makes a run in the playoffs, that's that's pretty difficult to lean on, you know, as like you said, you get tougher competition, you need to need to rely on someone to really stretch the field.

00:31:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, Tory Horton is, like you said, he's made plays, but he's a developing player. Don't mistake that for a minute, short and intermediateary. He has a lot to work on. He has to refine a game, and that's fine, it'll get there. But right now, Shaheed is a three level threat for them, and like you said, that's exact. They need that versatility.

00:31:51
Speaker 3: Now.

00:31:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they might run a little bit more eleven personnel too, you know, they they might, they might at least gives them the option. Again, this is about to me when when teams do stuff like this, it's about optionality.

00:32:02
Speaker 4: And as much as.

00:32:03
Speaker 1: We like sit here and we're like, yeah, there's probably better, you know, Forrashid Shaheed went to the Bills, it would have been more fun for fantasy or if you know now now Tory Horton doesn't matter and all this and we get frustrated about it, but realistically, just from like if you just look at it from a front office standpoint, I think both of these wide receiver moves made a lot of sense, even if the dots weren't fully connected pre deadline, Like, I don't think anyone was sitting you know, most people with Jocobe Myers was saying like going back to New England or Pittsburgh or he's gonna go to Buffalo and both both.

00:32:32
Speaker 4: Guys, I guess we're tied to Buffalo.

00:32:33
Speaker 1: I think the landing spots were a little bit surprising, you know, but they make sense.

00:32:38
Speaker 3: JJ.

00:32:38
Speaker 2: One last thing, now, the one problem that Seattle would have if they go with eleven personnel, three receivers a lot is the potential of team sending extra pressure at Darnold.

00:32:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of the beauty of where he's at.

00:32:50
Speaker 2: But now, I think where you're totally right on that if they're trailing in games, because you kind of got to go eleven personnel in you're trailing, and now to add that fire power in when you have to do it. But I I think on a base down, I think they had to be real careful about how often they they use lighter personnel because Donald, we know the story on him.

00:33:08
Speaker 3: If he gets heated up, it doesn't end well.

00:33:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I also think, I mean this is this is more of like a secondary effect of all of this.

00:33:15
Speaker 4: But they've struggled to run the football this year, like like tremendously.

00:33:19
Speaker 1: At least you're kind of bringing guys along with you if you get a guy like Shaheed and you're and guys are gonna maybe be a couple of yards further back to maybe open up some more running links at least a little bit for for Walker and Charbonay.

00:33:31
Speaker 3: No question, couldn't agree with that more.

00:33:34
Speaker 1: I mentioned him actually a second ago, but traveon Henderson, I'm curious about your thoughts on what you saw from him, last week. And if you think that there's there's some hope for US treveon drafters out there, you know.

00:33:46
Speaker 2: They played Atlanta last week. Atlanta is a lighter defense. You can run on them, and the Patriots were able to run on them. And but what I've been saying all year, and you know this and everybody out there knows this, they've proven the Patriots they do not want Henderson to be the guy.

00:34:03
Speaker 3: And I know he played a heavy snapshot.

00:34:05
Speaker 2: I know his snaps were in the seventy something percent range, but touch wise, it still was close enough whereas you saw Jennings get eleven carries, and so it was twelve touches total, eighteen touches for Henderson. Game script worked well for them, they were able to and most of their schedule being so easy, they can kind of stay in this game script. But they've made it so clear that Henderson they don't want him being the guy on all the touches. Don't know why, don't know what they see, but they must see something in practice. And if Stevenson does come back, it's probably right back to where it was. It was a great opportunity to see a good game out of Travon Henderson, but still twelve point seven PPR points with that workload. It's okay, Jennings got eleven. Jenning scores a touchdown, and there's the other problem. Jenning scores a touchdown. So good news for Henderson investors. Definitely better than the news you saw in the first eight weeks. And it's a sign of things to come. But I just I don't think they're going to center the it's around him at any point.

00:35:01
Speaker 1: I think the big problem for him, well, I've said this on the show, and I remember talking to some of my subscribers about this on the I Do a Tuesday Waiver Wire Q and A and I pulled up his rushing charts and a huge issue for him up until a couple of weeks ago was that they just kept running him up the gut in between the tackles, and he's just why, Yeah, that's not the kind of player he is, Like, look at what he was at at Ohio State. Even there's always he was always like a tandem back, you know, like I don't think the expectation should ever have been that Trayvon Henderson was like a ninety percent running back, you know, an eighty percent plus running back rush are kind of player. It's more so that we're drafting him because the receiving upside could be tremendous if they deploy him in a way that other Josh McDaniel's running backs have been deployed in the past. Right, Like, there's like my my stance with him, because I really liked him as a prospect, and I liked him entering drafts this year, and my stance on him was was very much that if he does see like a twelve thirteen percent target share, which I thought was definitely in his range of outcomes, and then he only had half of the team's running back rushes, which was also very very possible.

00:36:04
Speaker 4: Sure alone gives you borderline RB one numbers and.

00:36:07
Speaker 1: PPR leagues like that, that alone can get you there and get you where you want to be. It's just that they've not used him in space that much, you know, as a receiver.

00:36:17
Speaker 4: They did.

00:36:17
Speaker 1: We saw it a little bit last week, you know, they finally we were targeting him at a higher rate. You know, let like letting letting clearing things out a little bit for him and letting him do stuff, you know, in that passing game. But unless we see that more consistently when Remandre's active.

00:36:32
Speaker 4: That's the thing that just scares me.

00:36:33
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not I'm excited that he's getting an opportunity. I have him one team still, and if for Andre's out, I'll probably use him this weekend because it's a good environment in general. But yeah, I mean, like it's it's just a shame because I just don't think we're going to see that like pass Like the pass catching ceiling just hasn't been there, and that's the problem.

00:36:50
Speaker 2: No, And you know, Drake May is such a good quarterback. He's not looking just to check it down and so a lot of those aren't designed. A lot of the running back, as you know in your audience knows, they're not designed. But Drake May is like full field reads and he knows when to run. He knows exactly when to do it himself. He's a really, really good quarterback, much better than I thought he'd be coming out. I thought he might be maybe a good runner and maybe an average passer. Wow, has he exceeded expectations?

00:37:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this deep ball game has been amazing. I mean everything has just been awesome for Drake May. So yeah, that's a really good thought. What about Kyle mcnung guy, because mnung Guy is someone I mean, I didn't really care for him as a prospect that much. I thought he was just gonna be fine, did more and more replacement level type player. But you know, these are these situations where when the cost from a fantasy perspective doesn't necessarily say that that people are like super hyped about a player, I'll still lean into it, like I still have a decent amount of manungui and best ball and stuff, just because you know, there was a situation where when we see Day three running backs hit as rookies, it's usually almost always because there's an open backfield where we don't feel great about who the starter is, and we you know, didn't feel amazingly great. No one felt like super confident about DeAndrea Swift during the season. But last week we get him against Cincinnati, we get him in the greatest matchup imaginable for a running back this year, and he balls out.

00:38:13
Speaker 4: He was great.

00:38:14
Speaker 1: But do you do you credit that the matchup or do you credit Manungai for that performance.

00:38:19
Speaker 2: I will first say this, the Bears have coached up and geled that offensive line to an elite level. This is one of the best run blocking lines you will see in the NFL this year. Detroit hasn't played at our levels. This line is the line for running and we coming out of the by. Whatever they did up to the buy and through the by, they got it all together. They stormed at Washington stinks. They stormed them. New Orleans is a good run defense. The Bears stormed them with both running backs and the obviously, since that you can't tackle Manunguy, does it there? Mnunguy, who has been regularly seeing four to seven carries a game. The double digit win against New Orleans, he got more as a double digit win, and then obviously the game that he was the only running back and DeAndre Swift. You brought this up preseason, the preseason stuff. The coach was very adamant that he loves Swift, and they had chances to bring in Dobbins and others and they didn't even I don't even know they picked the phone up. So they believe in Swift, and Swift, if he's healthy, has done nothing to lose his role nothing.

00:39:26
Speaker 3: Now, maybe they decide to scale back a few touchs.

00:39:28
Speaker 2: I think that's in the realm, because if he's dealing with injuries, then maybe Monunguy's at aford to seven carries the competitive gams.

00:39:34
Speaker 3: Maybe now we're looking seven to ten.

00:39:36
Speaker 2: But until DeAndre Swift does something that makes the coachings have say we don't want on the field so much. I think it's his job. But Mnunguy, I do think gets a bump. What do you think?

00:39:47
Speaker 4: No, I would agree with that completely.

00:39:49
Speaker 1: And the other thing that I think is incredibly important here is that Munguy is not a plus as a pass catcher, Like it's just not you know, that's not part of his game. And so you know, he's very much I mean they dropped him to be an early down bruiser to compliment. I mean he is a good compliment to what they have and DeAndre Swift realistically, and Swift is sort of playing that role that I just talked about with Trevon Henderson that Henderson could have been playing, you know, maybe in that same offense, but they already had Swift. But regardless, like, uh, Swift is gonna be the pass catcher in that backfield. That's that's the value in fantasy football. You know, maybe maybe Munguy takes on some more goal line work too, and that hurts Swift a little bit. I do think what we saw from him regardless of opponent.

00:40:30
Speaker 4: Like I, I don't like to only blame opponent.

00:40:33
Speaker 1: I think that we have to give it context and say, yeah, of course it's a it's a very easy opponent.

00:40:37
Speaker 4: And so there, you know Marvin Harrison Junior this past week, like.

00:40:39
Speaker 1: Yes, but he also I mean that that touchdown that he had was incredible, right.

00:40:44
Speaker 4: Like he he he he.

00:40:45
Speaker 1: He was great in that game against Dallas aside from you know what that coverage does to perimeter wide receivers in particular, and it's and it's no different for Kyle Mnunguy. You know, going up against Cincinnati, most running backs in that position are going to have a day. But he had a really good day, you know, like he he looked good. He's able to carry big workload. He's a good backup running back in the league right now. Who can then take on some work now from that starter, like you said, who probably doesn't need to take on a ton of work DeAndre Swift just because of of his his play style and stuff. So with that all being said, I want to do what I've been doing on perspectives, which is taking a player and say do you want this player or this player rest of season? And we're gonna go through a bunch of running backs and we can kind of talk about these running backs too, so people can see like where our heads are at with these guys. So I'll start Kyle Mnungui rest of season or Jacory Krosky Merritt rest of season.

00:41:35
Speaker 2: I'm going with Manunguy. I am not a JCM guy. I told people before the season. He's not a pass catcher. Most weeks he's gonna get your two to seven fantasy points. Had the occasional gam where hescores other than that one hundred and fifty yard scrimmage game is against the Chargers, like last five weeks to hormacktly who he's been, he's two to seven points a game.

00:41:52
Speaker 3: So manung guy, yeah, I will easily go over him.

00:41:55
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:41:56
Speaker 1: I mean the other thing, I've mentioned this on one of my shows a couple of weeks ago, or maybe it was even last week, but Jacorey Krosky Merritt went from being really good at gaining tenor moriards, you know, more explosive plays, and he's been horrible at it over the last five four or five weeks. And when you're a running back, who and you're going through that stretch, because every running back will go through some.

00:42:15
Speaker 4: Stretch like that, you know, it happens.

00:42:17
Speaker 1: It's just some of its fortune, you know, some of its opponent, all that kind of stuff. But the problem with a player like JCM is that, like you said, he's not a pass catcher, and he's he wasn't that in college and they're using Jerry McNichols there now in the NFL. And when you don't have that backbone of being a pass catcher and you're not creating explosive plays on the ground, this is what you get, right, You're getting that two to eight or seven PPR points per contest, which is sinking your fantasy team unless you're in a very very you know, I have him, and I actually have him in the Auction League for King's Classic, and sometimes I just have to play him because we don't have any other options right options. But it's a really difficult spot Froim to be in. I think the one piece of hope for JCM right now is no. Number One, he gets more explosives. Number two. The schedule is okay moving forward number three. They just want to see what they have in him moving forward. But I agree with you. I have Kyle Manunguy over Krosskey merit.

00:43:13
Speaker 3: Real quick on that though, not having Jade and Daniels.

00:43:15
Speaker 2: And I don't know how that's a problem because defenses, what do you do now you compress the field? You do not care Marcus Mario throws deep and no, Terry McLaurin, he's probably down for a while.

00:43:25
Speaker 3: So now all of a sudden, when you have Daniels, you.

00:43:28
Speaker 2: Gotta worry about the deep ball, which allows more explosives in the run game. But now I think everybody's crowding in. He might see some zero covers, you might seed to like safeties both in the box.

00:43:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great point. All right, let's say Kyle Manungui or Remandre Stevenson.

00:43:44
Speaker 2: I am going with manungay Hair because we've seen some seven carry for thirteen yard games.

00:43:49
Speaker 3: We've seen some really bad games.

00:43:51
Speaker 2: From Stevenson when he's gotten work and now he's hurt, and we don't know this level of work.

00:43:56
Speaker 3: So look at manunguy Hair.

00:43:58
Speaker 4: The other thing with Stevenson, you look at his game logs to remember and refresh your mind about what he's done. When he had that really good game against Miami where he made that great catch probably the best catch of his career, arguably that over the shoulder, that was a great outing for him. He really hasn't done anything outside of a game then against Tennessee, who also you know, good game script, all that kind of stuff, and also can't stop the run very well, very frequently.

00:44:23
Speaker 1: And so two really good running back matchups are the only two games where Ramandre Stevenson was able to really do much. And then obviously now you have the injury, and then, like you know, we're saying that this are our projection and prediction.

00:44:35
Speaker 4: About Kyle Manunguy and how much work he might see.

00:44:37
Speaker 1: I still think that we have to consider in our range of outcomes that he does see more work, you know, like that's still very possible that that ends up happening when DeAndre Swift is back.

00:44:45
Speaker 2: So yeah, and Swift will always been healthy the last couple of years. He has an injury history. So part of is when I'm answering, I'm baking in the opportunity that he could see more work.

00:44:53
Speaker 4: Like you said, yeah, all right, how about Kyle Manu.

00:44:55
Speaker 1: It's crazy that we're even saying this, right, Kyle Manung guy or Alvin Kamara.

00:45:00
Speaker 2: Kamara is averaging five pp R points over the last three games. Not only is he toast, but his center Eric McCoy's done for the year. They traded away left guard Trevor Penning and they got Tyler Schucket quarterback who nobody's worried about throwing deep, I don't think because they'renna rush him.

00:45:17
Speaker 3: So it's manongai.

00:45:19
Speaker 4: Most twelve team leagues. Are you dropping Alvin Kamara?

00:45:22
Speaker 2: You have to And here's why you have to drop Alvin Kamara unless you have absolutely nobody to put in a lineup for a bye week. You can't have the temptation of putting in your lineup.

00:45:32
Speaker 1: He could He could be a sabotage drop too, right, Like, yes, you drop him, someone else picks him up and then they're like, oh, I got Alvin Kamara points.

00:45:39
Speaker 4: You know, It's just it's just he's not for them.

00:45:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's tough out there for for Alvin Kamara right now.

00:45:46
Speaker 3: You know.

00:45:46
Speaker 4: And and obviously age is playing a factor to some degree too.

00:45:49
Speaker 1: I mean, there's just a lot of things working against them. How about Tyrone Tracy, This one I think is pretty interesting versus Kyle Mnonga.

00:45:58
Speaker 2: I first want to say this last week, my recommendation to the Rodal Wire people was this, I said, if you have a waiverspot, pick up Tracy and immediately trade him, because we learned last year he had that week five to ten, he was five point four yards per carry.

00:46:14
Speaker 3: He looked great. After that, he was toast.

00:46:16
Speaker 2: He was worn out already because in the last from week eleven, I think they had a buy in week eleven, so from the rest of the time that five point four yards per went down to three point four. He was already done this year, limited work three point four yards per carry again, So he is not a good running back. He is a rotational guy, and immediately Devin Singletary was a big part of the backfield.

00:46:38
Speaker 3: So even though that said, I.

00:46:40
Speaker 2: Will take Tracy over manung Guy because I do think there's some receptions there. I think his weekly floor could be usable, whereas again there's the uncertainty of Manungay.

00:46:50
Speaker 3: But it's close.

00:46:51
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's a good take. How about R. J.

00:46:54
Speaker 1: Harvey in what people are now saying he's the official joker in the Broncos offense.

00:47:00
Speaker 3: You know it traced him. Sorry.

00:47:03
Speaker 2: Harvey's a tough one because you notice when they're winning games or they have a perceived easier opponent, they say, scheme him up touches.

00:47:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, but if they don't have a game like that, he's a non factor.

00:47:15
Speaker 2: That said, he's had ceiling games already, h where it's not just a one against the Bengals that Manunga had.

00:47:22
Speaker 3: I probably lean Harvey.

00:47:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, I should have prefaced too that we are recording this before the Thursday night game and this will.

00:47:28
Speaker 4: Be out on Friday.

00:47:29
Speaker 1: So if any of us are wrong about this stuff, you can't come at us, you know, if Harvey Harvey goes nuts or.

00:47:34
Speaker 4: Anything like that. Here's another.

00:47:36
Speaker 1: I mean, I think all these are kind of interesting in general, But how about Kenneth Walker in a split backfield himself.

00:47:41
Speaker 2: I was so out on Walker this year. Every year people got to make a narrative for this guy. Every year, it's a narrative. His ADP has always been higher than what he finished as And I said, oh great, they're gonna run the outside zone. I go, well, guess what everybody knows they're going to run that, and Kenneth Walker is not an inside runner, so when he gets the ball, automatically start going outside. If he doesn't get outside, he's done. Well that's kind of what he's been. But I'll say this, he has a floor. The floor is not great, and there is no ceiling. A week two I think he had a ceiling and they had one other game. We punched it a couple of touchdowns with thirty nine yards. But I'll still take Walker here because he has a floor and kind of like Manunguy, if Sharboney were to miss time, then he'd be in for bigger ume. So for me, that one's fairly easy with Walker, although not excited about him as a player at all.

00:48:29
Speaker 1: Right, right, I do think that that is an easy way to think of the tie breaker too, if you were to say, like, oh, yeah, I like Mnunguy just as much as Walker week to week from a projection standpoint, Like hypothetically, if you said that, I do think that you have to think of the scenario of, Okay, what if this player is out, that being Sharbonay or DeAndre Swift. If we assume DeAndre Swift and Zach Sharbonay are just out rest of season, I think everyone would be ranking Kinneth Walker ahead of Kyle mnung Guys, that's a that's sort of an easy way to tie break there. Similar situation would be with David Montgomery, and that's the last one that I want to get to.

00:49:00
Speaker 4: David Montgomery versus Kyle Manunga.

00:49:02
Speaker 3: This one is tough because numbers are numbers.

00:49:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the interior offensive line is what I thought it would be. So when they face eight, he had three games the Lions that these three teams that could push the interior and the run game tanked at all three of those. They're not going to see that every week. Yeah, so I will go with Montgomery. But Montgomery's a matchup play. If you ever see them playing a team with a death potential on the interior, you can't play them.

00:49:25
Speaker 3: But most other games he's fine. So I'll go Montgomery.

00:49:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then another guy, you know, I Jmiir Gibbs went down knock on wood. Everybody believe right now. But if if Jamiir Gibs went down, then Montgomery would be someone that I mean, he'd probably be fringe top a fringe RB one basically just because the offense we know has some firepower. Let's talk about the Chargers real quick with this Joe Ald injury. Are you nervous about what we could see there?

00:49:49
Speaker 4: And how? Like how do you think things could change? Like do you think that the target distribution and who they're looking at might be different?

00:49:55
Speaker 1: Do you think that they might go with a different kind of running back just because you know Camani Videl is not necessarily the.

00:50:00
Speaker 4: Biggest guy in the world. Like, is there any shifts that you see with this injury?

00:50:04
Speaker 2: When Alt first got hurt a number week back, I told again people that listened to my stuff, I said, this is what the Chargers will do. They know their offensive line is impacted, so they will just now get the ball out extremely quick. It's gonna be a heavy dose of lad mccacky.

00:50:18
Speaker 3: So at the time he hadn't done anything. I'd look for his break out here.

00:50:21
Speaker 2: Keenan All will keep seeing targets, and I mentioned Gadston may see more targets because of the underneath.

00:50:26
Speaker 3: They're gonna have to get it out.

00:50:28
Speaker 2: But Herbert has three receivers who could get open fast, and so I think that's just what continues. It's gonna be get the ball out quickly. That's gonna be because teams are gonna try to you know, heat up that offensive line, so the only antidote. But I also said the person that would lose to be Quinton Johnston. And of course last week I loved him because Alt was back and he got the touchdown.

00:50:47
Speaker 3: But Quinton Johnson's back out of the circle of trust.

00:50:49
Speaker 2: Because there are not gonna be long developing plays and they can't take a chance at a play i'll we have time to develop, So everything's gonna be quick, quick, quick, Vidal, you know, he is just a function of who they play. Terrible games, two great games, but that it's gonna be all quick game.

00:51:03
Speaker 3: So PPR.

00:51:04
Speaker 2: You love the reception totals for all three of Gadsden Allen and of course lad.

00:51:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I agree there. I mean, even like with with with Qj's injury and such like, they've been deploying him more as like how they did in twenty twenty four more recently, and that's a little bit of a problem.

00:51:23
Speaker 4: It did change a little bit this past week.

00:51:25
Speaker 1: But like you said, now that this injury is there a little bit a little bit scary for Quentin Johnson. Are there any players right now that you're looking to buy across fantasy.

00:51:34
Speaker 2: I still think you make a buy on Derrick Henry because last week Jackson didn't have his mobility.

00:51:39
Speaker 3: You could tell he ran one time that I saw. I remember.

00:51:42
Speaker 2: They're going to go back to last year's offense. Right now, Patrickkrick Carter is finally back and healthy. They will run that. They call it the pistol where Lamar w be in the shotgun, Henry will be on his hip, where cards on the field. Defense has got to commit extra people. But the threat of having Jackson and Henry on his hip, defenses don't know what to do with that. We haveage one hundred and forty three yards a game, and look, Henry's old, but his history says when November hits, you start seeing the best of him.

00:52:06
Speaker 3: Buy him. Buy Quinn Schewn Judkins.

00:52:08
Speaker 2: Two of his last three games were terrible, but those guards and center can still block in Cleveland, and Judkins is special and I do think he'll have a better second half.

00:52:17
Speaker 3: They'll be down games. I'm buying.

00:52:19
Speaker 2: Travis Etn told people coming out of the by I thought they would understand after their bad Stretching forward, the buying the outside run with him is what their offense could count on. They went back that, but his numbers weren't great last week, so they're still a buying wind.

00:52:33
Speaker 3: One more.

00:52:33
Speaker 2: At some point, the Steelers are going to stop the thrown seventy four passes a game that are tight ends, and DK Metcalf's going to start getting six or seven targets when he gets that.

00:52:42
Speaker 3: You want a piece of that.

00:52:43
Speaker 1: I like those calls. I like those calls. The DK Metcalf suff the Steelers right now. I was looking at this earlier this week. The Steelers wide receiver target share is the second lowest that we've seen from any team since twenty eleven. It's they're barely over a forty percent target share right now, like you.

00:53:00
Speaker 3: Nineteen eleven or twenty eleven. Yeah, right, exactly. It's crazy.

00:53:05
Speaker 4: It's crazy.

00:53:05
Speaker 1: And then the other crazy thing is that Darnel Washington over the last like five or six weeks is out targeting Pat Fryarmouth like the usage for Washington. He I mean, he's an interesting like player to have offensively, like to just you know, design a couple plays for a game or something like that. But they've used him frequently in that offense over the last handful.

00:53:25
Speaker 3: Week JJ, they lined him up as the isolated receiver and they threw him the ball before down on a play.

00:53:34
Speaker 1: It wasn't Yeah, I know, it's it's it's wild the way that that Arthur Smith's brain works and functions.

00:53:40
Speaker 4: What about the opposite players that you're looking to sell?

00:53:42
Speaker 2: This one will be unpopular, Dalton k and Kate. He does not get more than six targets at a game. He has two hundred yard games in his last three. He's got a bunch of touchdowns on only six targets a game. Only trade him, though, if you could get something of real, real, real value in.

00:53:59
Speaker 3: Return, otherwise keep them.

00:54:00
Speaker 2: But if somebody will overpay for a production, six targets a game is hard to get the coming Nicocollins, you know. I mean, he might have a hot market, but that offensive line is not getting better, and I just think that name value. Somebody's gonna overvalue him. People love Xavier Worthy, but if you're rostering him, you realize it's Rashie Rice and then it's everybody else talk about this.

00:54:21
Speaker 1: I do my rest of season rankings every week, and every week I then after I'm done, I like to just see what other analysts are doing and how people are ranking them as as a consensus, And I'm like eleven spots lower than consensus with Xavier Worthy every week, and you look like he's He's been higher, i think than wide receiver twenty nine once this year.

00:54:41
Speaker 3: Yes, and that's why you could trade him JJ. That's exactly why you said, because people.

00:54:45
Speaker 2: Believe I call this one exactly the way it was for a season, you probably did the same thing. This is what happened last year. They drafted Xavier Worthy'd be their downfield, stretched the field guy so that everything else could operate underneath. That's why they drafted him. But then Rashie Rice lcl and then mid season they had to move Worthy into the Rice roll, so he was catching shortening. To me, it's you don't want one hundred and sixty five pound guy running short intermediates.

00:55:10
Speaker 3: That does not end well.

00:55:11
Speaker 2: So when Rice was coming back, it was very clear Rice is going to get the Rice roll and Xavier worries ate the role he was drafted to be. But that's only a few targets a game, and once in a while you'll get a deep connection and it'll be great. But no, I'm like you, I'm lower than everybody on him, but you could trade him easily.

00:55:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I feel like Worthy at this point it's just like a maybe slightly better version of Jmo or something, just the way that they're deploying him in Detroit.

00:55:36
Speaker 3: But I I.

00:55:37
Speaker 4: Mean, maybe maybe that's not it.

00:55:38
Speaker 1: Maybe it's just the same thing, you know, because like Jamo is at least giving us these random one off like he's he's he's generated the big plays you know at times this year, and Worthy really hasn't given us that like that crazy game yet, you know, like the like at least of late, and it's worrisome. But yeah, I mean, like Worthy last year, you know, if you look at his splits, like I think after their buying like week nine or ten last year, and then even through the playoffs, his a dot fell by like three yards, you know, Yeah, they started to deploy him differently, and then that then turned into him being a more viable fantasy option.

00:56:14
Speaker 4: But yeah, it was the thing for me. I had.

00:56:16
Speaker 1: I had Worthy as a as an avoid when I initially published my draft, kind of had Rice as a target, and then I kind of just said, all right, let's just push this aside because of all this lead, you know, then the suspension, and then it just became a situation where it's like, well, we don't know what's going on. So this is how I feel. But it's going to be pretty unique from drafted draft. But yeah, saw the same thing with Worthy entering the year. All right, I've been doing this with every perspective's guest. The last thing, we need a bold prediction for Week ten?

00:56:44
Speaker 3: All right?

00:56:44
Speaker 2: Bold prediction Quinchan Judkins one hundred and fifty yards two touchdowns against the Quinn Williams list less New York Jets.

00:56:52
Speaker 4: Yes, I love the quinch on call out.

00:56:55
Speaker 1: By the way, I almost had him as a buy in my fifteen Transactions column in podcast this week, because not only is he just really great between the tackles, Like I mean, I think we would all say easily at this point the best rookie running back in terms of just talent and what he's doing right as a runner at the very least, you know, still some question marks is what as what his ceiling would be as a receiver, but as a pure runner and just player, he looks great. But the schedule is also awesome for Cleveland you know, rest of season. So and then they get a great one one that got better with that trade this weekend.

00:57:25
Speaker 4: So I like that call out of Quinchewn Judkins. Jim, this was awesome.

00:57:29
Speaker 1: I greatly appreciate not only your time, but just any conversation I get to have with you.

00:57:34
Speaker 4: It's always great.

00:57:34
Speaker 1: So let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on, all that great stuff.

00:57:38
Speaker 3: I'm on the X at Jim Coventry NFL.

00:57:41
Speaker 2: I always post my weekly schedule of work, any videos I have and whatnot. I'm on Serious XM Fantasy Sports Radio Saturdays noon to two Eastern Thursday. You're watching the night game, but I am on from then to midnight Eastern on Thursday nights as well, and am over at roadwire dot com. If you want to read my articles, you need a subscription to get a discount on that, and get you fifteen percent with the code YouTube fifteen at rodewire dot com.

00:58:04
Speaker 1: Awesome, Awesome. I'm JJ zachareson. You guys can find me on Twitter, on Blue Sky at LATEROUNDQB. Make sure check everything out over on lateround dot com. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in