812: Week 5 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacheras j J Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eson in this episode eight hundred and twelve of the Late Brown Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I had a feeling that last week's sleeper show was not gonna go well, and it wasn't great. Tank Dell didn't do anything. Quentin Johnson had a higher target share, but he wasn't productive. Luke Musgrave got concussed, so that's not an L from a process standpoint, but an L from a results standpoint. Tyler Boyd didn't get anything going despite a twenty six percent target share. Gerald Everett bad streaming option. Roshawn Johnson not a great option either. Now on the bright side, c J. Stroud did come through again, Matt Brito was the RB sixteen in PPR formats, and Curtis Samuel is a deeper play. He came through. But I felt going into the week. I mentioned on the show that it was a tough week and it ended up being the worst sleeper show of the year. Let's try to get back on track here in week five, the first tear of players consists of guys who are rostered in just ten to fifty percent of Yahoo League, so more often than not you can add them in your league. I'm gonna kick things off at quarterback and go with the guy playing on Thursday night, and that's Sam Howe. The Commanders are at home and they're currently five and a half point favorites. According to Fandals Sportsbook, Washington has the seventh best implied team total this week at twenty five points. That's because they're playing Chicago. The Bears have been the seventh most advantageous matchup for fantasy quarterbacks to start the year. They've allowed three top ten performances. The Commanders ring thirty first and pressure rate allowed. That's been a huge problem for them, but the Bears are currently thirtieth and pressure rate on defense. So Sam Howe to me in this matchup is the top streamer of the week. Josh Dobbs is another player that you could look to. I mentioned Dobbs in the fifteen Transaction Show because he's been really getting it done on the ground. He's averaged forty eight rushing yards per game over his last three. Now he gets Cincinnati. The Bengals have been slightly below average against the pass this year according to Passing EPA per drop back aloud, and they've been the eighth best matchup when looking at justin fantasy points allowed. I think there is some worry that Arizona won't actually trail in this game. That might lead to fewer scrambles for Josh Dobbs, but he's playing well. He makes sense as a streamer. Now, moving on a running back, it's a total s show. You can first look at samaj p Ryan and Jalia McLoughlin. Assuming Javonte Williams is out. I have p Ryan ranked ahead of McLoughlin just barely. That might be a little bit controversial, but he did play more snaps last week. Either way, they both get the Jets in Week five, and New York's been a pretty ordinary opponent when looking at justin fantasy points allowed to running backs, They've been totally the average and rushing yards over expected allowed per rush too. And one of the things that's kind of intriguing here is that the Jets are second and adjusted target share allowed to running backs this season, so teams are using their running backs through the air against New York at a higher than normal rate. Maybe that makes McLaughlin a little bit more intriguing because he saw more targets per route run last week. But just a little bit of an added bonus for both of those guys. I think they're both in the RB three range this week. And you could look at Ezekiel Elliott. Clearly I'm not totally enthusiastic about a play like this, but he did see a very slight increase in snapshare from week three to week four. It rose by about six percentage points, and he ended up with his best route participation last week of forty four percent. That was up from twenty one percent the week prior. But the matchup against New Orleans, it's nothing special. This is really just a recommendation that's volume based during a bye week where there are a few alternatives. Tajy Spears is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of LYE. I don't think he's a horrible, horrible play in PPR formats. I mean, given context of what this show is, Spears is hitt a twelve percent target share in three or four games this year, and he saw his best route participation in week four. He actually has the eighth best target share running back across the entire league to start the year. Now, like Ezekiel Elliott, this isn't a call out because the matchup's great. It's just to say that Spears is getting some work and he's explosive enough where he can pay off with one big play. Moving on to wide receiver, I'll start with a fifteen Transactions guy, Tyler Boyd. Boyd is still out there. In fifty nine percent of Yahoo leaks he gets an Arizona team this week has been pretty average for wide receivers to start the year. Assuming Boyd continues to play heavily in the slot without t Higgins, that's not a bad thing. The Cardinals this year have allowed the ninth highest concentration of targets to go to that area of the field. He's coming off a game where he had a twenty six percent target share. That alone makes him worthwhile for a show like this. In that same game, as Michael Wilson, another fifteen Transactions player, Wilson played a similar role that he's played all year and Week four, but the production finally matched. He saw seventeen percent of Arizona's targets and he found the end zone twice. Now, I don't think we're going to see that kind of performance each week, but the Bengals have been a good matchup for wide receivers and passing attacks this year, so if you're in some trouble, he makes sense. Another rookie scene in Uptick and Work recently is Rashee Rice. This could have easily been one of the ten trends from yesterday's show, but Rice has seen his route participation jumped to over fifty percent over the last two weeks. During weeks one and two, that number was closer to twenty percent. Among all wide receivers with at least twenty routes run this year, Rashi Rice leads all of them in targets per route run. That's resulted in target shares of nineteen percent and seventeen percent over his last two and an offense led by Patrick Mahomes and in a really good match up against the fifth worst team even adjusted Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. I like Rashid Rice this week, and then finally in this tier at wide receiver, I'm gonna go with Wandel Robinson. Robinson has now been targeted on twenty nine percent of his routes run and he saw his participation increase from twenty three percent in Week three that was during his return from his ACL all the way to sixty seven percent this past week. Now. The Giants faced the Dolphins in Week five in a game where they could be trailing, they could be forced to throw, and Miami has allowed the eighth most slot yards in the league this season. They've also seen the eighth highest target rate to that portion of the field, and Robinson thus far in twenty twenty three, he's run eighty six percent of his routes from the slot. Not only is he someone that you should have rostered, but he's not a bad by week fill in this week. Zach Ertz still leads all tight ends and target share, and he gets the Bengals this week. Since Satti ranks tenth and adjusted target shair allowed the tight end so far this year, and then the second best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed. You've got to fallow the volume when you're streaming tight ends first and foremost. Zach Ertz has that Luke Musgrave should be back this week after his concussion, largely because the Packers have more time to rest because they played last Thursday. Musgrave gets a plus match up against the Raiders, and as we know, he's been heavily involved this year in that offense. All that stuff I talked about last week for Musgrave, it still applies to this week. He's had strong route participation, he's had a decent target share, all of that still applies. So he's a nice streamer here in Week five. The next group of players, we're digging deeper. These are guys rostered and fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues who might deserve a lineup spot this week. I hope not, but by weeks are here, you never know. We're gonna start with a quarterback Zach Wilson. I know, I know it's Zach Wilson, but he looked competent in Week four, and Week five is a match up against Denver. Every quarterback to face the Broncos this year has finished top fifteen and weekly scoring, and Denver ranks thirty first and passing EPA allowed per dropback, fifth in air yards per attempt allowed, twenty third in pressure rate, twenty ninth in sack rate, and they've given up the most touchdowns in the league. I like the other guys that I talked about earlier more than Wilson, but in this tier he's a very logical choice. Now, it's very, very difficult to find running backs this far down the list, but I'm going to shout out Ronnie Rivers as a massive, massive desperation play. Like you've got to either be in a thirty two team league or have one of the worst rosters on the planet to use Ronnie Rivers this week. But it does give me a chance to talk about rivers uptick and work. This past week, Rivers saw his snapshare go to twenty eight percent from two and a half percent week over week. His target share this past week was five percent. It had been zero percent the previous week, and he saw twenty six and a half percent of the Rams rushes. He hadn't carried the ball once all season long before Week four. Now, Kyron Williams apparently suffered a hip contusion but was able to finish that Week four game. If that lingers at all, though, maybe the Rams don't give him as big of a workload, and if their Week five game gets out a hand against the Eagles, which is possible, maybe they decide to use Rivers a little bit more As a result. It's just rough out there for these under ten percent running backs at wide receiver. I mentioned this on the ten Trends episode, but Jalen Hyatt got more run in week four. He saw a sixty percent route participation in a six and a half percent target share. Now, it would take a whole lot of faith to trot him out this week. You're basically assuming that this trend continues and that they use him more and more. But he does get Miami, and like I said, with Wandell Robinson, a game against the Dolphins could force a pass heavier script. But of the two Giants wide receivers, I'm definitely playing Wandel Robinson over Jalen Hyatt. Now, if you don't want to take that big of a risk, which I totally totally understand, you could look at Josh Downs. He's seen target shairs of eighteen percent, sixteen percent, twenty nine, thirteen percent so far in the season. That equates to about a twenty percent target share in that Colts offense. Indianapolis gets Tennessee this week. The Titans ranked fourth and adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. They've also been eleventh and percentage of targets funneled to the slot, and that's where Downs has played eighty four percent of his snaps. So I do think that Downs is a reasonable deep sleeper. And then lastly, I'm gonna go with Tyler Conklin as my deep tight end streamer this week. According to Fantasy Life's utilization report, Conklin's top twenty in route participation this season, and he's now seen target shairs of twenty four percent, eighteen percent, and fifteen percent over his last three games. Denver's defense is bad, and they're really bad against tight ends across the entire league. They've given up the most adjusted Fantasy points to the position. So Conklin's not a terrible play. He's not a great one, but the matchup and the usage, it's at least there now. Streaming defenses look weaker right now because both Detroit and Washington saw their percent roster numbers jump. But you could look to Green Bay against Vegas. The Raiders have been an above average matchup for defenses this year and green Bay is a favorite. But I would also go look at Houston when you match up pressure rate versus pressure rate allowed. With this week's matchups, the defense who ranks as having the best advantage there is the Houston Texans. Because the Texans so far this year they've been the top five and pressure rate. The Falcons are bottom ten and pressure rate allowed or top ten, depending on how you look at it. Basically, they've been bad at stopping pressure. The fears that Atlanta won't throw enough to help Houston's fantasy potential, but I do think the Texans are a sneaky play here in week five. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Mailbo episode and another episode of Late Round Perspectives. M