715: Week 12 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha je Zacher Reefon. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eeson in this episode seven hundred and fifteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. So I lied at the end of the ten Trends episode. I said that I would talk to you tomorrow, but I don't think it would be right for this episode to drop Thanksgiving morning when there are games happening all day long. So here's the Sleeper Show one day early this week. Last week was probably a seven and a half out of ten for this show. Marcus Marriotta was the only quarterback streamer that I referenced, and he finishes the QB fourteen not great, but not terrible. Isaiah Pacheco ran for over one hundred yards. Darius Slayton was a wide receiver two Jarvis Landry found the end zone and I talked up to Marcus Robinson. He ended up catching nine passes for one hundred and twenty eight yards. That was the best call of the week, but not Everything was butterflies and rainbows. Ben Scarnik, Trustan Ebner, and Trey McBride. They weren't great deep plays. Foster Moro had one reception, so it wasn't a flawless episode. We've got more teams to choose from this week, though no one's on by. It should be a fun one. Before getting the Sleepers, though, remember to check out Fandel's Thanksgiving Million Contest showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using Fandel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of one million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool two hundred thousand dollars first place prize, all for just five dollars. It's a great three game slate, so make sure to enter over on fandle dot com. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. The first section of the show is where I talk about players rostered in more than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, but they're not over the fifty percent mark, so they're available in at least half of league's out there. And I'm going to kick off the show today with a little spice. I'm gonna go with Jared Goff. On paper, this matchup sucks. Buffalo's the fifth toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position this year, but this game environment is actually pretty attractive. The over under is fifty four and a half points according to Fandal Sportsbook. Despite being nine and a half point home underdogs, the Lions have a very solid twenty two and a half point I applied team total, and that over under is so high because it's in a domed environment, and the Lions have been a lot better at home in that environment than on the road. They've averaged thirty one point six points per game at home this year. It's been eighteen point four on the road. Goff himself has averaged almost twenty one fantasy points per game at home. He's only dipped below fifteen and a half points in one game at home. On the road, he hasn't had a single game where he's scored fifteen points. And because gamescript is likely to favor Buffalo, the Lions are probably gonna be throwing more than usual. Pass rate loosely correlates to how teams score touchdowns, meaning if they're throwing a lot more chances are more of their touchdowns will come via the air than on the ground. Now, I don't love Goff this week, but after the first ten or so quarterbacks in rankings, things get rough. I don't think it's necessary to just be totally turned off by them because of this matchup on Thanksgiving. Marcus Mariota could work again this week too. We know Atlanta likes to run the ball, but Washington their opponent this week. They've been good against the run. They ring seventh and success rate allowed to running backs this year, and they're a top five team in schedule expected points allowed per rush according to Number five's expected points formula. That's a long way of saying they can stop the run. That could force Mariota to air it out a little bit more. And Washington's a team that ranks as a very average opponent against quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed for what it's worth, their second best against running backs and adjusted fantasy points allowed. They're a tougher fantasy matchup for them. So Mariota does make some sense, and so does Matt Ryan. The Steelers continue to be pretty awful defensively, and they're a top ten opponent for cous quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Ryan's hit fifteen plus fantasy points in four of his six top ten matchups this year, and he's hit twenty three and twenty seven points and two of them, so the ceiling is actually there. There's just plenty of volatility because it's Matt Ryan and then the last quarterback in this tier, Taylor Heinike. He's not been good in fantasy the last couple of weeks, with fewer than eight fantasy points scored in both of those games, but they were also against two teams that rank in the top three and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Heinick actually hasn't faced a really good quarterback matchup since becoming starter, but he will this week because Atlanta has been the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted points allowed quarterbacks against Atlanta this year, They've scored three point one points above their season long averages, so Heinieck could be in store for a good outing. Now. Moving on to running back, they're three of them. One is samaj p Ryan, but he only works if Joe Mixon is officially ruled out. That hasn't happened at the time of this recording. I will say though, I'm not like overly excited about p Ryan this week. I think other people like p Ryan more than I do. Not only could we see more of a split backfield than expected, but the Titans rank first and success rate allowed to running backs this season and they're a bottom ten matchup in a just fantasy points allowed to the position. I don't think he's a slam dunk play. He's just in play for a show like this because volume alone can make him a flex play again as long as Joe Mixon's out. The next back is one from the fifteen Transactions episode, and that's Kyron Williams. Darryl Henderson being released this week. That was a little bit of a surprise, and understandably people are gonna be intrigued by cam Akers, but I think Kyron Williams is more interesting because of this specific matchup. The Rams are massive fourteen and a half point underdogs of the Chiefs. That means we're likely to see a pretty negative game script for LA and in week eleven, Kyron Williams ran twenty three routes, cam Akers ran seven. Williams looks like the pass catcher in that backfield, and game script is likely going to favor that in this matchup. And then there's James Cook. Like I said with Goff that Thanksgiving Day game should feature some scoring, and Cook is coming off a game where he basically saw his best neutral script numbers of the season. He ran the ball eleven times for eighty six yards. Not only could he get some run while this game is competitive, but if things get out of hand, we could see more Cook than Singletary to close things out. Now, moving on to wide receiver, Donovan People's Jones is somehow still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, so I've got to mention it. Since Week three, DPJ has averaged a target chair per game of twenty one percent. He's seen fewer than eleven p puerre points just once, and in that game it was back in week five, he scored nine points. The matchup against Tampa Bay is a plus one this week too, at least by justin Fantasy points allowed. They rank thirteenth worst in the league against wideouts, so you can once again use Donovan People's Jones. Now, I like Matt Ryan and I like his weapons, so both Paris Campbell and even Alec Pierce should be on your radar this week. I think Campbell's pretty straightforward at this point. He has a twenty five percent target shair across Matt Ryan's last four starts, and he scored at least eleven point seven p pure points in each one of those games. He's become sort of a security blanket for him, and Pittsburgh's allowed the second most slot yards in football this year. Campbell's played seventy nine percent of his snaps from the slot, so he's in great shape. But the Steelers can't really guard perimeter wide receivers either, and they ranked tenth in deep ball rate allowed. Alec Pierce has fourteen targets of fifteen or more air yards this season. That's more than double any other player on the Colts, and in Week eleven he had a twenty six percent target chair He was getting some looks, so in deeper leagues you can give him a look. And speaking of slot matchups, Jarvis Landry is a pretty good one this week too. The forty nine Ers are technically an above average matchup for wideouts when looking at justin fantasy points allowed, and they specifically not being great in the slot. They've allowed the sixth most slot yards in the league. Landry's seen target shairs of twenty one percent and fifteen percent since returning from injury, so he makes some sense here. In Week twelve and Treylon, Burks is still under that fifty percent mark. And week eleven, per next Gen stats, Burks got two of his three targets for fifty seven yards when going up against jay Ra Alexander. He finished the day with almost a thirty percent target chair and a top twelve performance at wide receiver. This matchup is not perfect against Cincinnati, but we're buying into talent and we're buying into ability. Burks needs to be rostered in almost all fantasy formats. The last time we saw the Buccaneers, we saw a little bit of life from Julio Jones. He gave us a top thirty performance at wide receiver and it wasn't totally fluky. He had an eighteen percent target chair. He ranes five fewer routes in Chris Godwin and four fewer routes than Mike Evans. The Bucks get the Browns this week in a pretty average matchup. If his usage continues, he could come away with another wide receiver three performance. Now clearly DeMarcus Robinson needs a shout on today's show because this percent roster number hasn't totally shot up yet. He's been good to me too, so I got to give him a little bit of love. But Robinson has seen eight or more targets and two of his last three, which are three games without Rashad Bateman, his target share per game has been almost twenty four percent during this time. Now he gets a plus matchup against the Jags. They're the eighth best matchup in adjustin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. I would not be surprised if DeMarcus Robinson is good once again. And then at tight end, I have two for you. The first is Taysom Hill. Hill played a season high forty three percent snapshare last week. He finishes the tight end thirteen without a touchdown. He played some quarterback and that gives him more opportunity to run the ball and New Orleans Dot Football's Nick Underhill he reported after that game that the Saints coaches realized they were underutilizing Hill's skill set prior to Week eleven, so they used him more and that makes them more viable and fantasy football now moving forward, Foster Moro, and that's apparently the official way to say it. By the way, though he seems to not really care, according to an interview that I read, But he didn't have a great game last week. This week's matchup a little bit different. The good news is that he did play every single offensive snap for the Raiders last week. He just didn't run a ton of routes. That should change this week against the Seattle defense that's been really, really bad against tight ends this year. They're the top matchup for tight ends and adjusted Fantasy points allowed, and they rank third and adjusted target share alloted to the position. So I think it's a bounce back week for Foster Moro. This second tier consists of players rostered and zero to ten percent of Yahoo leagus guys who are almost definitely available in your league. You might be able to start. And we're gonna get a little bit weird with this quarterback pick. But if Matthew Stafford can't go this week, I don't mind Bryce Perkins on thirteen dropbacks last week. Perkins rushed for thirty nine yards. During his two years as starter at Virginia back in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen, he ran the ball four hundred and thirty nine times. He's a mobile quarterback. His passing might not be there, but the rushing should give him a floor. And it's a matchup where the rams are all. I'm most definitely gonna have to be in a pass heavy mode that could lead to more scrambles. It's not an easy start to make. I totally get it, but I would not be surprised if he does well. From a fantasy perspective at running back. With the Melvin Gordon release this week, Latavius Murray is going to be the main guy in that backfield more than likely, But open up your mind a little bit to my good friend variance. It's not a total lock that Murray will see a Bell Cow workload. Marlon Mack is there, and the Broncos have generally been splitting that backfield up this year, and the Broncos get Carolina this week. The game looks like it could be an ugly one with just a thirty five and a half point over under, but Carolina is the fifth best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Now, I talked about Jared Goff and a potential negative game script and a good scoring environment and Khalif Raymond is someone who falls under that same bucket. He's been very clearly the team's number two wide receiver. He ran just one fewer route than Aminos Saint Brown. Last week, he ran ten more routes to the next closest lines play That turned into a twenty eight percent target share. If he even comes close to that with more passing volume against Buffalo, he could be usable. Now it sounds like Rondell Moore is probably gonna be out this week and Kyler Murray is probably going to be in. That's at least what it sounds like right now on Wednesday afternoon. Greg Dortch is dealing with a thumb injury. He's day to day, but if he goes, he's not a bad deep option. The Cardinals deployed him as their primary slot guy earlier this season, and in those games he averaged target share per game of about seventeen percent. This past week, without Rondell Moore for most of that game, he had a target share of almost twenty four percent. Markis Brown's probably not going to play his normal snapcount if he goes this week and the Cardinals face the Chargers, who've seen the fourteenth highest share of targets get funneled to the slot this year. If Dorch ends up playing, he's not a bad option. And then there's one more player I want to get to here. It's Noah Fan. He's been playing a little bit more than teammate Will Disley in that offense over their last few games, and he's seen some spikes target share this year. In fact, since Week four, he's actually got a target share per game above fifteen percent. That's not that bad. The Seahawks get the Raiders this week in Vegas is the eleventh best matchup for tight ends and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. I like the tight ends that I mentioned earlier more than fant but I do think that he works. And then, as for the streaming defenses, I talked about Miami on the fifteen Transaction Show. They're in a great spot against Houston as a huge favorite. If they're no longer available, you could go to Indianapolis against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed three point four sacks per game over their last seven and they're a top ten team and adjusted points allowed. But there's also the Panthers. Their percent rostered number is very very low, but they're at home, they're playing in a game with a really low over under, and the Broncos have been the sixth best matchup for defenses this season and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Now, there are other defenses that you could go to, but they're rostered in more than fifty percent of leagues. Like the Jets, the Panthers are just the play that spans across a lot of different formats because they're rostered in just so few leagues. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and hover to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com too. Now, with it being a holiday, there won't be a mailbag episode this week, and in the spirit of Thanksgiving, I want to just thank all of you guys for your support. Seriously, without you, I quite literally would not be able to do this. I'm insanely thankful for each and every one of you. So have a great Thanksgiving, enjoy time with your friends and family, enjoy some football, and I'll be back in your ears next week. Take care