986: Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings

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Speaker 1: This is the Lab Podcast with your host JJ zacherthas j Jake Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine eighty six of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. It's finally NFL Draft week. Finally we made it. Now. My feelings towards players, my feelings have shifted a bit since the start of the draft process because I either learn more about them or I see their projected draft capital shift. Draft capital matters to me. If a player goes from being a projected Day three pick to all of a sudden being projected to go in the top fifty, that's going to alter the way that I feel about a player. So today, as a little pre NFL Draft primer, I'm going to talk through my top twelve single quarterback rankings as I do each year. Essentially, this is how I view the first round of rookie drafts. Heading into the draft. Things will change, but this at least will serve as a nice baseline for post draft analysis. Now, before we get to the rankings. As you clearly know by now, the NFL Draft is happening this week, which means there's not that much time left to get the pre draft version of the Late Round Prospect Guide. The guides one hundred and sixty pages of nerdy prospect information. You get to know what goes into my prospect and Year two models. You'll get right ups on eighty running back and wide receiver prospects, and there's about forty Year two profile right ups too. There's rankings, there's tiers, or so much more. If you get the pre draft version of the guide. So if you order before the NFL Draft is over, you'll get the post draft version as well, that gets published on the final day of the NFL Draft. You said to give me some time to get it all ready to go. In that post draft version, you'll have new write ups for relevant players, you get tight end zapp scores, you get updated rankings and more, and again it's all gonna be finished on Saturday night, the final the NFL Draft. That way, you'll immediately be set to dominate your rookie drafts. Learn more about it and get yourself a copy by heading the Lateround dot com. And for the record, I know that the majority of you aren't necessarily interested in buying fantasy football content, and that's totally understandable. It's not for everyone, but I will say that if you're consuming this podcast, if this content is helping you out, do me a favor and still head the Lateround dot com and subscribe to the free newsletter. It takes ten seconds to do it. It helps my work get across to more people, and that in turn helps the late round fantasy football business. So I would greatly appreciate that support. And again, you could find everything over on lateround dot com. Now let's get to these rankings. Not much needs to be said about Ashton Gent, who's my one oh one in every rookie draft format. He's a stud now. I answered a mailbag question a couple of weeks ago about how I could possibly feel this way when Gent didn't do any athletic testing. We don't even know what his forty time is, and my response to that is that it doesn't really matter. Like, sure, maybe we have more question marks with Genty than some of the other elite, elite, elite running backs who have come out over the last decade, But as I said on that episode, and I'll say it again now, Genty only has something to lose by testing. He's projected to get really great draft capital in this year's draft. He's going to be drafted on Thursday. There's no need to mess with that, and athletic testing doesn't matter that much at running back. In the ZAP model, genty has a breakout score of ninety four breakout scores of metric that I use at both running back and wide receiver that measures age and strength of schedule adjusted receiving yards for team pass attempt. So it's a receiving metric. People have said, but his receiving profile isn't very strong, and I would disagree strongly with that. Yes, he didn't have a lot of work last year as a receiver, but two years ago genty had forty three catches in twelve games that led to a pro rated reception share that was sixth best in the higher ZAP model database that dates back to twenty eleven. First round running backs have amazing hit rates, and when that draft capital is in the top half of the first round, it's even better. Since twenty eleven, every single running back draft in the top sixteen of the NFL draft has given fantasy managers at least one season of about seventeen PPR points per game. That's an RB one season. Trent Richardson is even on that list, And I said almost seventeen PPR points because Trent Richardson had sixteen point nine to eight that was his top year. And get this, of the nine running backs with that kind of draft capital, six of them had twenty or more PPR points per game and one of their first three years in the league. Don't overthink things with Ashton genty. He's got unbelievable odds of becoming a fantasy football star. No, I do think it's possible that the one h two changes post draft, even in single quarterback leagues and superflex. Maybe you want to go cam Ward, but I think in every format the one oh two is a Mari and Hampton at least right now. But post draft, what if Trayvon Henderson gets better than expected draft capital? And honestly, could you blame someone for reaching for Travis Hunter if he falls with a team expected to use him at wide receiver. But Hampton's my pick right now because the things that are predicted for fantasy purposes, he's got them. The size is there, he's two hundred and twenty one pounds and he's no stranger to a big workload. The speed is there. When you look at his speed score, which is weight adjusted forty times, it's borderline elite. Now, pass catching is a concern for some, and while I don't think he's likely going to be one of the best pass catching backs in the league, I don't see analytical concerns or analytical red flax. His top season in reception share was actually one of the best in the class, and his breakout score it's at least a good bit above average. Now, from a modeling and numbers driven perspective, Draft Capital is gonna just take the wheel here. Hampton's looking like a first round pick according to NFL mock draft database, and he'll likely be a back half first rounder. Those guys don't have the same type of hit rates as front half first rounders, but the hit rates are still really good, especially if you include some of the early second round picks in that cluster. I wrote about this in the Late Round Prospect Guide. But Hampton's someone who has really good comps in the ZAP model too, like better comps than Genty does. Because Genty's kind of a one of one type back. You get players for Hampton like Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley, and that's because he again checks a lot of boxes. In fact, if you look at the ZAP Model database, only five top one hundred picks have gotten to one hundred and five. Speed scorer Hampton is over one hundred and ten. A top season reception share of fifteen percent, Hampton's at almost eighteen percent. In a best season total yards per team play rate above two yards, Hampton is at two point four to eight yards, So he's well above all of these thresholds. Those five who have also been above those marks. Those five running backs are David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Rashad White, and Devon a Chan. There should be some safety with a Hampton selection as long as he goes in round one, but unlike genty, I do think this positioning is subject to change post draft. Ted McMillan may end up as a ZAP Model's wide receiver one post draft, but that's not a lock. If Luther Burden gets Round one draft capital he has a shot. If Travis Hunter ends up going to say Cleveland, he'll have a shot. But right now, I think McMillan's the safest player to put in the three slot. Now. I said it before on the show, but the comparison to Drake London that McMillan often gets, I'm not totally totally there. I think London was a better prospect, and the model does as well. It's not super far off, but I think McMillan fits a little bit better with like a Cortland Sutton type player, which is still quite good for sort of a median outcome. McMillan's breakouts scre is admittedly just average compared to other first round wide receivers. Since twenty eleven, it's at eighty three. We usually see good first round wide receivers above the ninety mark. With that being said, we have multiple seasons of great production from Tet McMillan. He can play all over the formation and he's one of the few true potential X receivers in this class. He's gonna more than likely fall into the elite producer category in the ZAP model, and that's where we see tons and tons of stud wideouts. Maybe he goes down the path of like a Mike Williams, which is one of his statistical comps, but I think we'll at least see a solid Courtland Sutton like career where he can be like a wide receiver two in a decent situation, and then if the ceiling hits, maybe that's when you get a Drake London. Next on this pre draft rankings list is Traveon Henderson. This may be a little bit of a surprise, maybe, but he grades out as the third best back in the ZAP model, and there seems to be more and more steam that he could go in round one. I actually think there was a possibility that he goes to Denver. He'd fit Sean Payton's offense beautifully. He'd immediately be able to cash out on his receiving ability, and that's why you like Trayvon Henderson. He didn't have an elite best season reception share in college. It was just under ten percent, but his eighty six point four breakout score was seventh best in the class. And remember, breakout score is driven by receiving yards. Even at running back. It's receiving yards per team pass attempt, and Henderson played on Ohio State teams with stud after stud after stud at wide receiver. As a freshman, he ran the ball one hundred and eighty three times for twelve hundred and forty eight yards. But what's more impressive is that he caught twenty seven passes for another three hundred and twelve, and that was on a team with Jackson Smith and Jigba, Garrett Wilson, Chris o'lave, Marvin Harrison Junior, and a Mecca Buca. And that Buckeyes team still decided to feed Trayvon Henderson as a pass catcher because his breakout score is so strong it makes up for his lower risk reception share a bit. When you look at running backs who had a breakout score above eighty in the ZAP model and a best season reception share below ten percent, you get David Wilson, Bryce Love, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, and Kenneth Walker. It's a rare thing to have happen because receiving yards are generally gonna correlate to receptions. But considering that type of hit rate and the draft capital associated with those players, it makes me feel pretty freaking good about Trayvon Henderson. Now, analytically, Henderson comps really favorably to James Cook in the ZAP model, but I think there's more to Henderson than what we had with Cook coming out, Like I said he's super explosive, he played at a big program, he shared a back people with some really good running backs, and he competed with strong receivers too. Overall, it's a profile that should work in today's game, even if he is slightly slightly undersized. Okay, this is where right now I'm gonna go with Travis Hunter. Some of you might be so prize by that ranking, but some of you are gonna think it's too low. Others are gonna think it's too high. So let me just explain my logic. First off, I'll say what I've said countless times over the last few months. Travis Hunter's analytical profile it's not as strong as you might think. His breakout score is well below average for a first round wide receiver. His best season in yards per out run and receiving yards per team pass attempt isn't anything overly special. But is there not a better player to sort of throw out historical trends than with Travis Hunter. Let me list out the reasons why I think his analytical profile isn't as good as it probably should be. Number One, he played both ways in college. Not only did he play a ton of snaps which is difficult to do. But he didn't learn the position the same way that a normal wide receiver would. He didn't see normal reps. Number two, Colorado ran a pretty unique offense with a lot of pass catchers on the field at once. If a team runs a lot of like twelve personnel where there's only two wide receivers in the field, those two wide receivers are going to have an easier time accumulating a lot of receiving yards because they're only competing with one other wide receiver. Well, in Colorado, with some decent competition with some decent potential pros, Colorado often ran out four wide receivers. That's going to lower a player's yards per rout run rate because there's naturally more competition and tougher competition for those targets. Now, that doesn't take away the predictability of some of those metrics. It's just recognizing that Travis Hunter was put in a situation that wasn't exactly normal on top of being a player who wasn't exactly normal. And then there's number three, Draft capital. Draft capital can rule all of this if he goes top three, which looks like he will, That alone is pretty telling, and it's going to override some of the worst marks within the ZAP model. So while I'm probably not on the same level with Hunter as some, I don't think this is a case where he's as good analytically as like Molik Neighbors was last year. I'm totally fine was saying that this is a very unique circumstance because it is a unique circumstance objectively, I mean, we don't even know how much wide receiver he's gonna actually play because he's so good on the defensive side of the ball as well. And that's my next point, how much wide receiver is he going to play? Part of the reason I'm ranking him higher than I did two weeks ago is because that narrative seems to be shifting. There was a tweet from Lance Zerline last week that said, while early in the process, I was hearing from more teams who saw Travis Hunter as a cornerback first, that is evening out with coaches who see him as a wide receiver first. The thought is that he would take less punishment as a wide receiver, no run support, and that he could play defensive back on some third downs pre draft, and I'm stressing pre draft. There are a lot more question marks from a draft capital perspective with the players lower on this list, and for a player who isn't like Matthew Golden, there are more production concerns than I have for him. So this feels like the right spot for him. He's a generational talent because he's a unicorn. Now, I don't know if he's a generational wide receiver because we do have incomplete information, at least in my eyes, but I'm willing to shoot for upside. I'm willing to buy into draft capital a bit, and I'm willing to hope that the team who drafts him is just going to deploy him as a wide receiver, and if it's a team like Cleveland, my bed is that they do. Now I'm a little bit worried about Luther Burden's draft capital. That's a main reason that he's falling in my rankings a little bit. But I've got him right here at one oh six. As Late Round Prospect Guide purchasers know, Burden was the wide receiver one the ZAP model back in March when the guide was published. Technically, with updated draft capital, he's no longer in that spot. Because he keeps falling down projected draft boards. There are red flags to his profile. He saw over thirty two percent of his targets come from behind the line of scrimmage throughout college. When looking at top one hundred Hickson's twenty eleven who are at thirty percent or above within that stat you get bust after bust after bust after bust, Paris Campbell, Lynn Bowden, Amari Rodgers, Anthony Schwartz, Kadarius Tony, Rondel Moore, VELAs Jones, Wandel Robinson, Trey Tucker, Malachi Corley. I mean, is there a worst group of wide receivers drafted in the top one hundred than that group that I just named. That is frightening. Now open that threshold to twenty eight percent instead of thirty percent, and Brandon Auk and Calvin Ridley they join the group, so you start to get more hits. But the way Missouri used Luther Burden should at least make us widen his range of outcomes as he moves to the NFL. He was used a lot in the slot, and he was used in gadgety ways. That's frightening when looking at how he might project at the next level. With that being said, going back to the ten wideouts who had high behind the line of scrimmage target rates and high screen rates, Burden's breakout score of ninety six point three is most similar to just two of them, that's Rondell Moore and Wandel Robinson, but Burton's a whole lot bigger than both of those players. Size has been a detriment for both More and Robinson in the NFL, and More also played a lot more in the slot in college than Robinson and Burden, and he didn't see nearly as many deep targets. That's why I keep going back to that usage comparison of Wandel Robinson when I'm talking about Burden, because they're usage and even production to some degree. It was really really similar. But Burden has a bigger frame and NA could go a very long way because it allows him to have more of those DJ More Brannan, I you comparisons that didn't exist for a player like Wandell Robinson. Now I've also added mock draft data to the model, as I talked about on episode nine to seventy seven, and Wandel Robinson was one of the biggest reaches that we've seen at wide receivers since twenty eleven. That's gonna likely not happen with Burden unless the team gets him in like the middle of the first round or something. But if that ends up happening, then we're talking about Burden being a first round wide receiver, So that shifts this conversation completely. Basically, what I'm getting at here is I think Burden's a pretty unique prospect. His high was truly a great high, arguably the best in the class. His sophomore year age adjusted production was insane, but he did it with usage that doesn't always translate to the NFL. But as I talked about with Matt Harmon last week, and as I talked about with Matt Waldman the week before that, we all see a path for there being a ceiling for Burden. There's just a wide range of outcomes here. So if that's not your flavor, you can pass on him. I would totally understand. In my eyes, I think a Mechagbuka is safer than Luther Burden. Now I justly thinking Buka has kind of become underrated at this point. The wide receiver ZAT model looks at two main production and puts at wide receiver. One is breakout score, and that gets a ton of signal because of its predictiveness. Again, that's age and strength of schedule adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt, and then there's also rushing production. Now, I don't care if a dude has like six hundred yards or something wild like that. He doesn't get extra points for that crazy of a total. I more so look at a baseline to show that his team was trying to use that player in a lot of different ways. Agbuka not only has a solid eighty eight point nine breakout score, but he had rushing production as well because Ohio State used him in a lot of different ways. Special teams included. Agbuka's breakout score is driven by a pro rated receiving yards per team pass attempt rate of two point eight one during his sophomore season. That looks even better when adjusted for strength of schedule, and that was on a team among others with Marvin Harrison Junior. Now, Agbuka didn't get back to that point that receiving yards per team pass attempt number, but injuries and strength of schedule also played a role. His profile is really really clean overall. Maybe we only see him as a slot player at the next level, but he can still be absolutely fine in the right spot, and there's some upside there to do more than just play in the slot. Now, some of you might be confused why I've talked about a lot of wide receivers so far. This is supposed to be a really good running back class. Well, to me, there are three running backs who are really really good, all in different types of tears, but they all look great on paper. And then there are some who maybe have some more red flags but they could still be great, like quin Shawn Judkins, who's next on the list. But here's why I think Judkins is not right now pre draft ahead of Luther Burden or a Mecha Yuka. I'll likely shift him up and down within this tier because he's probably in this tier, but I'll shift him up and down based on landing spot. But I would be surprised if I had Judkins like ahead of Trayvon Henderson or a Marion Hampton post draft, so I'll be clear about that. There's no doubt that he can do a lot between the tackles, but my fear with Judkins is the pass catching upside. I talked about this on the show before, and I wrote about it in the Prospect Guide. But Judkins is a breakouts were a forty six point five, which is below average. His top season reception share was just eight point six percent, which is also not strong. Let's use a breakout score of sixty and a reception share of ten percent as our two thresholds here, so two numbers that Judkins was a decent bit below. Since twenty eleven, so in the Zapmodel database, we've had twenty two running backs get drafted in the top one hundred who had breakout scores below sixty and a best season reception share below ten percent. Only two of those running backs hit a target share above nine percent, and one of their first three NFL seasons nine percent is nothing special. One of those running backs was Doug Martin. The other one was Jeric McKinnon, who wasn't even a traditional running back in college. My stance is that I think that Judkins at the NFL level is probably gonna have usage upside of like a Jonathan Taylor, which obviously isn't bad. I'm not trying to frame Judkins is a bad prospect. So when that's the type of usage, it means at number one you got to generate big plays, but then number two you got to score a lot of touchdowns. Which is why I'm Letting Landing spot dictate where he ranks post draft. Matthew Golden is next on the list. I want to repeat something that I said on Late Round Perspectives last week because I think it's really important when we look through all this stuff analytically. Early declare status is something that does get signal in the ZAP model. It's something the ZAP model uses. Early declare status is when a wide receiver leaves college early to join the NFL. The easiest way to describe why this matters is because when someone is young and they leave school to go play in the league, they're clearly going to be more talented. Why would they leave The main reason you would leave college early to go to the NFL is because you're probably going to be drafted with decent draft capital. You're probably talented. But also with early declare wide receivers, they played fewer seasons at the collegiate level. So for finding data and pointing out that Matthew Golden was really bad compared to other successful wide receivers in the past. We have to also point out that he only played three seasons of college football. A lot of those other wide receivers played four. So when I say that Golden would have to be someone of an outlier to hit fourteen or sixteen pper points per game at the next level because he never reached a two point zero receiving yards per team pass attempt to rate in a single season. While that's true, keep in mind that he probably would have gotten there in twenty twenty five had he stayed in Texas, And then what how would we have viewed Matthew Golden analytically if that was the case. Now that being said, when you adjust for this fact, he still does have a very scary profile. His breakout score is just fifty one, and there's no doubt that his draft capital is going to be elevated because he ran fast in a straight line at the combine and there's even controversy as to how fast that forty actually was. Now, draft capital is going to keep Golden afloat for me, and I think this is where the ZAP model can be really, really helpful. It makes sure that I'm not getting too carried away with these analytical red flags, not only that, but Lad McConkie is his top comp in the ZAP model. But just don't get me wrong, there are a lot of question marks with Matthew Golden, who really only saw consistent elite production at the tail end of his junior year. That is very, very scary. Caleb Johnson could easily go up in the rankings post draft, but I'm not exactly sure how the NFL currently feels about him. Big boards on NFL Mock Draft database have historically done a pretty good job from a predicted draft capital standpoint, and Johnson has had a net fall in the big board during the draft process. It hasn't been severe, but it's been my ten or so spots. I guess what I'm saying is when it comes to Johnson versus someone like Judkins, there seems to be way more people in on Judkins, and I'm assuming that draft capital is probably gonna follow. They're in the same tier for me right now, but I'm using as a differentiator. Meanwhile, between those two running backs Johnson and Judkins, I think Johnson is the better prospect analytically, at least as ZAP model does. Yes, there may be some long speed concerns and he didn't totally squash those concerns with a four five seven forty at the combine. With that being said, he still had a one h two point seven speed score. Because the dude is two hundred and twenty four pounds. He's just not looked at as overly explosive compared to the rest of the draft class because the rest of the draft class is very good and athletic, and we've had lots of hits and misses from running backs with Johnson's size speed profile. On one hand, among players draft in the top one hundred since twenty eleven who were two hundred and twenty plus pounds with a four to five five forty or slower, you get hits like Le'Veon Bell and David Montgomery, But there are some pretty uninspiring players in there too, like Daniel Thomas, mckelda, Shore and Zach Moss. Now, I think Johnson is capable of being a three down back. His receiving profile actually isn't that bad when you give it the context that it needs. He played in a very run heavy Iowa offense. In fact, his breakout score is seventy five point eight. I don't think he's gonna be a plus as a receiver, but I don't think it's a red flag the same way that it's a red flag for quin Shawn Judkins. Draft capital once again is gonna go a long way here. He's not a back that will seamlessly fit in every scheme, though he's someone who can definitely play all three downs. You've now heard my pre draft top ten. Rather than give you just two names to round this thing out, I thought I'd talk about this next grouping with more than two names, because I think there's kind of a tear break happening after Caleb Johnson. This is where right now, in non tight end premium leagues, you can definitely start to think about Tyler Warren or Colson Lovelin. The ZA model prefers Warren at the moment, but both of them, based on their Zapp score, they're being placed in the elite producer category. They're not like elite elite prospects like brock Bauers, but they've got a very real chance to be solid producers from this class. Neither of them have glaring red flags analytically. Now, cam Ward could also be in play here. He's the one oh one in real life and in super flex formats. Like I said earlier, I think you can at least make the argument that he's the one O two. I don't have him there, but I understand that argument. Jim Son has talked a lot about Ward's numbers in detail on episode nine hundred and eighty two, and I did an episode episode eight seventy two on how rookie quarterbacks appreciate in value in Dynasty. They typically are able to maintain good market value year over year even if they don't have insane rookie season numbers. Now, I'll probably have Ward behind any first round running back and maybe Ted McMillan post draft in super flex leagues, but I can understand someone going after him at one oh two. Now, if you're not someone who likes to go after one of the onesie positions in the back half of the first round of rookie drafts. Next up on my list is probably the Iowa State guys. I I Jaden Higgins ahead of Jalen Nole right now because of projected draft capital, but if Nole gets boosted and he's been moving up draft boards, then don't be surprised if he's in that wide receiver six range post draft, I think he's a really intriguing slot player with upside, whereas Higgins, he has at least a chance to be a prototypical X and his high end comp and there's a camp based on how this guy looked in college and coming out of college, but the high end comp ended up being Nico Collins in the ZAP model. But overall, that's how I'm currently seeing the first round of these rookie drafts in single quarterback leagues. We all know that things will change after this draft is over, but it's good to be grounded pre draft to allow yourself to not get too wild with landing spots in such post draft. I really think this is gonna be a rookie draft environment that can go in a lot of different directions. There are really solid players in this class, like a lot of them, especially at running back, but I'm not sure we'll see that much of a consensus take outside of Ashton genty and that's gonna make rookie drafts that much more entertaining. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are brustorting for it pretty much anywhere. Podcasts can be found in follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at late round QB. This is a mailbag week, and because the NFL Draft is starting on Thursday, the mailbag will actually drop on Thursday as well, So get your questions in as soon as you possibly can otherwise, everyone, I'll talk to you then.