French Government on Brink of Collapse; South Korea’s Yoon Faces Impeachment

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:13.800 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:14.640 following today. 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.079 Karen, we begin with political turmoil for two key US 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:21.960 allies overseas. Let's start in France, where Prime Minister Michelle 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:24.880 Barnier is facing a vote of no confidence. Far right 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.800 leader Marine Lapin and her National Rally party have promised 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.600 to support a motion from a left wing coalition that 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:34.440 would topple the government. Barnier is urging lawmakers to step 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:35.320 away from the brink. 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:40.000 I hope so, and it's indeed possible. It depends on 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:42.640 the members of the National Assembly, each who has a 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:46.159 responsibility to the French people, to the voters of their constituency. 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:50.239 And before France two, which is at a rather serious moment. 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:53.800 French Prime Minister Michell Barnier spoke through an interpreter. Bloomberg's 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.720 Critty Gupta is covering the vote from Paris. She says 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:58.920 there is enough support from the left and the right 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:00.240 to bring down Barnier. 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:01.880 There could be a little bit of a make or 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:04.520 break case when it comes to the Socialist Party. That is, 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:07.040 of course, the more centrist faction when it comes to 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:10.240 the left side of Parliament. What's significant here is those 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:13.119 are the people that both Michelle Barnier and Emmanuel Macron 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:14.840 have targeted in the last twenty four hours, saying that 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.240 these are the people who could vote for with their 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:20.360 conscience or need to potentially make or break this vote. 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:22.800 And that's where so much of the speculation lies that 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:26.280 if you do see enough socialists in Parliament abstained from 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:29.679 the vote, there is a slim but not impossible chance 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:32.600 that Michell Barnier could make it out with this vote 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:33.760 with his job intact. 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.720 Bloomberg's Critty Goopta reporting from Paris. Debate on the no 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:39.840 confidence motion is set to begin at four pm in Paris, 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.080 that is ten am Wall Street Time. 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:42.720 Well Nathan. 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:46.000 Another political crisis that is playing out quickly in South Korea. 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:50.720 Position lawmakers have filed emotion to impeach President Yunseekule. That's 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:53.640 after he briefly declared martial law to try to break 0:01:53.640 --> 0:01:58.040 a political deadlock. Bloomberg's Katye Dmitrieva report the next twenty 0:01:58.040 --> 0:01:59.960 four to forty eight hours will be key. 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:04.680 The main opposition party is seeking this impeachment or resignation 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:08.120 and it could come as soon as Friday. They need 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:11.799 two hundred votes out of the three hundred members. They 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:14.680 have just under that, so they'll have to rely on 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:18.080 some people from Yun's own party to come over to 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.320 their side. So we'll probably be expecting a lot more 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:22.799 before the weekend is up. 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:27.280 Bloomberg's Countya Dimitrieva reports the opposition is also pursuing trees 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:31.000 and charges against South Korea's defense and safety ministers. The 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:34.680 Defense minister has offered to resign. The crisis sent South 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:37.720 Korea's currency plunging as much as three percent before it 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:40.799 regain most of its losses. Bank of Korea governor Rea 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:43.360 Changyong says markets are stabilizing. 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.440 Actually, I'm very happy that the impact has been shut 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:50.960 to leave eptbr to see how these political events will evolve. 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:55.240 In the meantime, we focus on providing and pull libidity 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:56.840 to stabilize the market. 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:01.160 B Okay Governor Re Changyong tells Bloomberg it's not likely 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:03.680 that interest rates will have to come down in response 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:05.400 to a short lived political event. 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:08.840 Certain of politics at home, now, Karen President, like Donald Trump, 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:11.520 may be considering a change to one of his key 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:14.399 cabinet picks. Let's get the latest done that from Bloomberg's 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:16.040 John Tucker, John and Nathan. 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:19.000 The Wall Street Journal reports Trump is considering Florida Governor 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.400 Ron de Santis as a possible replacement for Pete Heggsith 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:25.960 run the Pentagon. Heg Sith, the former Fox News host, 0:03:26.080 --> 0:03:29.120 is facing accusations of alcohol abuse on the job and 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.679 sexual misconduct. The New Yorker magazine has written about a 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:36.920 whistleblower report of missing money from veterans organizations. He ran 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:41.000 on Capitol Hill yesterday. South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:42.640 voiced his concerns. 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:44.440 Some of these articles are very disturbing. 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:48.560 You know, obviously has a chance to defend himself here, 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.080 but you know, some of this stuff is going. 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:51.680 To be difficult. 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:55.000 The choice of DeSantis would be a remarkable term. The 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:58.360 Florida governor's decision to challenge Trump and the GOP primary 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:01.480 began a bitter war between the two, with Trump casting 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:05.400 DeSantis as disloyal. In New York, I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Radio. 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.920 Pray John, thank you about Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary. 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:12.080 Scott Besson plans to meet this week with Key Republicans 0:04:12.120 --> 0:04:15.040 as he begins preparing for confirmation hearings sort to say 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.640 the veteran hedge fund manager, We'll meet with Senate Republican 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:21.599 leader John thun Later today, spokesperson for Trump's transition team 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:25.360 says Besend also plans to meet other key Senate Republicans, 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:28.640 including incoming number two leader John Barrosso, this week. 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:31.280 And as President Trump continues filling his cabinet, Karen his 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:33.360 transition teams working to get them confirmed. 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:35.440 Do we get more on that from Bloomberg's Amy Morris? 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:37.279 In Washington, the team. 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:39.960 Signed an agreement to allow the Justice Department to conduct 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:43.120 background checks on his nominees and appointees after a week's 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:46.760 long delay. The step lets Trump transition aids and future 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:51.720 administration staffers obtain security clearances before inauguration day to access 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:56.200 classified information about ongoing government programs. It also allows those 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:59.240 nominees who are up for Senate confirmation to get those 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:02.080 background checks lawmakers want before they vote on them. 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:04.800 In Washington, Amy Moore as Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:06.600 All right, Amy, thank you well. Donald Trump will be 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:09.039 in New York tomorrow to be honored at an annual 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:12.159 award show hosted by Fox News. The president of lex 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.200 says you will receive the Fox Patriot of the Year award. 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:18.880 Adweek says Fox News has seen its ratings increase since 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:20.800 Trump's election victory last month. 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:23.240 Turin the markets now, Karen futures are higher. 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.160 After yet another record close on Wall Street, the S 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:29.599 and P five hundred notched its fifty fifth record high 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:33.200 of the year. Jeff Klinop, Chief Global strategistic Charles Sharp 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:36.120 says investors should look outside the US next year. 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:38.680 I really like what I'm seeing in Europe. I like 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:41.040 outside the US for twenty twenty five. I know you 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.160 see headlines that said what's going on in Europe and 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:44.880 you think, wow, how could you like this? But look, 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:49.160 we're likely to see accelerating global economic growth outside the 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:52.039 US in China, and that means countries like France better 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:54.480 economic growth next year than we saw last year. We've 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:57.960 seen rolling recessions through many of these major economies over 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:00.720 the last six quarters, and earnings were sessions as well. 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:03.640 That's likely to change in twenty twenty five. So rising 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:06.040 economic and earnings growth points me in the direction of 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.400 some of these economies that are rebounding, like what we're 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:09.000 seeing in Europe. 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:12.159 Charles schwaubs Jeff clentops as a trade war could pose 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:16.279 the biggest hit to global growth in twenty twenty five. 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.080 Well, Nathan, ni Let's take a look at some stocks 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:21.920 on the move this morning. Shares of Salesforce they are 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:25.560 up about thirteen percent. The top seller of customer relations 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:30.000 management software reported quarterly revenue that top analyst estimates. That's 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:33.040 boosting investor hopes that the company's much hype strategy for 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:36.520 artificial intelligence products will lift financial results. 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.200 And shares of Marvel are also of careen they're hired 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:41.800 by more than twelve percent. The ship maker delivered better 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:45.400 than expected results in an upbeat earnings forecast, citing demand 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:47.200 for artificial intelligence computing. 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.480 Turning to the economy now, Nathan, the Federal Reserve's last 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:53.960 policy decision comes two weeks from today, and investors will 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.600 be looking for clues on the future of rates from J. 0:06:56.880 --> 0:06:59.720 Powell Later today. If Ed Shar speaks at the New 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:02.800 York Times deal Books summitted one forty Wall Street time, 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.839 you can hear his comments live on Bloomberg Radio television 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:09.720 and the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube page. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.360 Austin Goulsby says rates need to be lower. 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:14.480 Over the next year. 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:18.200 It feels to me like rates come down a fair 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:22.800 amount from where they are now. Just the inflations series 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:28.000 is kind of my pet metric. It's the most important 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:32.160 part is to look at inflation and not just the aggregate, 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:36.000 to kind of break out the categories. And so my 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.160 pet thing has been housing inflation. 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:42.040 In Chicago, FED President Austin Goolsby was echoed by San 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:46.000 Francisco FED President Mary Daly, who said rates should continue 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:50.880 to fall. Time now for a look at some of 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:52.880 the other stories making news in New York and around 0:07:52.920 --> 0:07:55.280 the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:56.520 Michael, Good morning, Good. 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.680 Morning, Karen. Jury deliberations we'll resume today in the trial 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:03.000 of Annual Penny, the marine veterans charged with using a 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.600 fatal chocol to subdue a New York subway writer whose 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:10.880 behavior was alarming other passengers. Penny, who is twenty six, 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:15.000 is charged with manslaughter and criminally negligent homicide charges in 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:18.200 the death of Jordan Neely, who was homeless. Penny has 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:21.600 pleaded not guilty and maintains that his actions were justified. 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:25.040 The jury asked within the first seventy five minutes of 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:30.080 deliberations to rehear the judge's instructions on justification defenses and 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:34.400 on the definitions of the crimes charged. There's concerned about 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:37.160 the skies outside New York City with a drone mystery 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:40.960 over New Jersey. They had been spotted flying near President 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:45.040 elect Trump's Bedminster golf course and near a military base. 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:48.040 In a video, this man says he saw the drones. 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:52.959 I can see three drones just in this view. There 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:59.800 is another one over here and another one back here. 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:03.920 Authorities say they acknowledge the public's concern about the drones, 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.480 but say there is no immediate danger. Today, the Supreme 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:10.600 Court will hear arguments in a case which impacts access 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:15.120 to healthcare for hundreds of thousands of transgender and non 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:19.640 binary youths across the country. Twenty twenty three, Tennessee law 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:23.400 bars the use of treatments like puberty blockers and hormone 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:26.880 therapy for transgender teams. The parents of a fifteen year 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.360 old transgender girl, represented by the American Civil Liberties Union, 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.760 say the law violates the equal Protection clause of the 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:38.080 Constitution by discriminating on the basis of sex sam law 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:39.959 is with the Human Rights Campaign. 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:45.600 These healthcare bands discriminate against trans youth by denying access 0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:50.559 to the very same safe and effective medications prescribe to 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:53.760 people who are not trans to treat a range of 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:54.680 health issues. 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:58.080 Supporters of the bands say there is not enough data 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:02.000 and possible long term consequence. Yesterday, at the Supreme Court 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:06.480 heard arguments in a case involving compensation for Holocaust survivors 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:10.160 and their heiress were property confiscated during World War II 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:14.520 before victims were sent to death camps. Global News twenty 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:16.839 four hours a day and whenever you want it with 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:19.840 Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg. 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:27.079 Karen, Right, Michael Burr, thank you time now for the 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:30.520 Bloomberg Sports out date. Grothe you by trying State Audi 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.839 and here's John stash Hour, Johnson Morning. 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:35.559 Good morning, Karen Nixon. Magic at the gardens to decide 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.680 who would advance to the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup, 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:42.000 the in season tournament, Nicks needed to win. Orlando just 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.679 needed to not lose by thirty seven points in the 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:45.240 third quarter. 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:47.440 They trailed by thirty seven. 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:49.079 Points, but the final was once twenty one one to 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.439 oh six of the Magic advanced and the Knicks will 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:54.719 now play a home game next Wednesday against Atlanta, and 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:56.479 a win gets them to the semifinals. 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:57.199 In Las Vegas. 0:10:57.240 --> 0:10:59.840 Karl Anthony Towns led the next twenty three points fifteen rebounds. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.280 Coach down Thibodeaux liked that five Nicks scored between eighteen 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:04.520 and twenty three points. 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:07.920 I love the how unselfish we were, and I thought 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:12.280 they made great reads when we got into the paint, 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:15.920 just making the extra pass and then creating the right 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:20.640 space and then cutting, which got us going downhill. And 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:24.280 when you do that, everyone finds rhythm and you find 0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:26.319 in good shots. You're creating good shots. 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:26.480 For each other. 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.760 Cleveland beat Washington by thirty one. The Wizards have lost 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.200 fifteen games in a row. The Islanders have lost seven 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.160 or last nine, five of them by one goal of 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:36.400 two to one overtime loss in Montreal. The Bruins one 0:11:36.440 --> 0:11:39.280 and ot three two over Detroit. Capitols lost to to 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:41.920 one to San Jose, and the College football playoff was 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:45.200 only four teams. Two losses would usually knock a team 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.440 out of contention. Alabama has lost three games, but now 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:50.679 with a twelve team field. Looks like the Crimson Tide 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:53.040 will get in. Committee has them playing the first round 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:55.480 game at Notre Dame. Miami was ranked in the top five, 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:57.880 but lost two of its last three blew a three 0:11:57.960 --> 0:11:59.640 touchdown lead last Saturday at Syracuse. 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:01.720 Looks like the Keynes are out a roll. 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:04.920 This Chapman signed with the Red Sox, whose bullpens struggled 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.000 in twenty twenty three. Chapman has pitched fifteen seasons for 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:11.679 seventeens two stints with the Yankees. ESPN reports though jan 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:16.199 Sodo decision could happen this week. Five teams Mets, Yankees, 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.160 Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Dodgers said to be willing 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:21.600 to give Sodo in the neighborhood of a fifteen year, 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:23.760 six hundred million dollar contract. 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.600 John stash Aller, Bloomberg Sports Kearry Nathan. 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.880 Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:33.880 and around. 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:37.240 The world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:40.079 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.920 I'm Nathan Hager on a morning of political crisis for 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.599 two major US allies. Starting in France, a country that 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.880 could be headed into uncharted political territory. Before this day 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:53.080 is out, lawmakers are set for no confidence vote against 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.880 Prime Minister Michel Barnier that could topple the government. President 0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:00.320 Emanuel Macrondo is urging lawmakers toy consider, saying it would 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:03.800 be a vote of, in his words, unbearable cynicism. Joining 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:08.160 us from Paris is our Paris Bureau chief Bloomberg's Alan Katz, So, Alan, 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:10.719 thanks for being with us once again. Is mccrone's call 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.720 to reject this no confidence vote? Likely to be heated? 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.679 Good morning, Good morning, how are you, Nathan. It's not 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.959 likely to be heated. In fact, it's not being heated. 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:23.640 We had Jordan Bardella, who is the president of the 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:25.920 National Rally though he's really sort of the number two 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:27.959 person in the party behind Marie and le pen but 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:30.360 he was on French Raider this morning saying that his 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:32.680 party was going to vote for the no confidence motion. 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:36.400 He also had the head of the Socialist Party within 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:39.439 the National Assembly. So again, so this left block that's 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.719 also going to vote, we're expected to vote for this 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:43.640 no confidence motion is sort of a range of parts 0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:45.800 that go from the far left to sort of more 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.640 like the social Democrats to where the Socialists are. So 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.000 there was some hope by macaum Barnier and calls for 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.720 them last night from them last night for the Socialist 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:57.080 to sort of peel away, but they're representative this morning 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.400 said that they would vote for that motion as well. 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:03.280 So it looked like both MacCall and Prime Minister Mission Vouni, 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.960 who made a similar call last night on French television, 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:08.079 that they're not being heated now. 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:11.280 The president mccral has said he is not going to 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:14.839 resign amid this crisis. But how much pressure Allan is 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:16.040 he under right now? 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.080 So he's under a good deal of pressure. But you 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:21.200 have to remember that the French presidency is a lot 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.040 like the American presidency. You're elected in France's five years 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:25.720 rather than four years, but you're elected for a term 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:28.240 and that's it. You're there now. There is an impeachment 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:31.080 process in France, but it's never been used under the 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.400 current constitution, which came in in nineteen fifty eight, and 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:36.240 that's not no one's really talking about that. So McCall 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:39.600 is in power. He remains president as long as he 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:43.680 wants to. Now people will say, oh, but the country 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.120 can't be governed and the only way to change things. 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.400 Some opposition of positicians are saying this, the only way 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.000 to change things is for McAllen to resign. He said 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:53.640 yesterday when he was in Saudi Arabia that he was 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:55.640 going to serve to the last second of his mandate. 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.080 So he certainly doesn't seem of a mind to resign 0:14:58.120 --> 0:14:59.160 anytime sooner than. 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:04.640 That started when French President Macrome called this snap election 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:07.400 back in July to try to stop the far right. 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:10.280 Now it seems like the far right is calling the 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.280 shots here. Is that right and what's the endgame? 0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:13.600 If so? 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.880 That's a good question. So the answer is, I mean, yes, 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:21.280 your timeline sort of works like he actually called the 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:24.120 election in June, the election happened in July, or the 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.040 second round of it in July. And it's true that 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.760 Marine lepenn and the far right have become much more 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:33.880 powerful as a result because mac Hollins support based in 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:37.160 parliament really receded. The number of parliamentarians for the far 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:39.560 right really increased, and so you have this sort of 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.160 three block, three sort of main blocks in parliament to 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.600 no coalition that's sort of being able to be formed 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.560 to pass a budget, or we continue even to have 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:53.040 a government, So that makes Marine lepenn very powerful. What 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:55.680 the end game is is a big question because under 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:58.880 the French constitution you can't call, you can't dissolve parliament 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.280 to call another election for at least a year after 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.360 the last election. So that puts us from the first 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:05.640 week of July to the twenty twenty four to the 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:07.720 first week of July twenty twenty five. So until then 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:10.520 we're stuck with this parliament, or France is stuck with 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.560 this parliament, and so even if you have a new government, 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:15.840 it's stuck with many of the same problems that Balnier had. 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:19.120 As I mentioned before, McCall can't be forced to resign, 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.960 and so it's not quite clear what the short term 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:25.280 game is. The longer term strategy would be for there 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.080 to be a dissolution of parliament, you hold elections again 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.000 again July twenty twenty five. Would be discisions that could happen, 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:35.040 and then maybe voters bringin a pretty different looking parliament 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:37.200 than the one they have and you really have a majority. 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:40.200 But between now and then it's going to probably be 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:45.400 pretty tenuous and perhaps slightly chaotk on the political front. 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:45.840 In France. 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.320 Yeah, we'll see how that chaos potentially plays out after 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:51.960 this vote is set for later on today. Thank you 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:53.720 for this, Alan, great to have you back on with 0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:57.680 us once again. Alan Katz, Paris bureau chief for Bloomberg News, 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.320 with us from the French capital this morning. Now we 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:02.920 want to turn to the fast moving political situation in 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:08.439 South Korea, where opposition lawmakers have filed impeachment motions against 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:11.680 President Yun Sook yol, less than a day after he 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.720 shocked his nation and investors by declaring martial law. Joining 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:20.000 us from Hong Kong is Bloomberg's Jill Desis. Jill, This 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.560 has been such a fast moving situation, it's been head spinning. 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:28.200 How did we get to this point? Good morning, Good morning, Nathan. 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.359 Yeah, it's been a really wild twenty four hours in 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:34.440 South Korea. I mean, look, I'm not going to say 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:37.960 that everything was going incredibly well for President Union leading 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:40.600 up to this point. He certainly had a very tense 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:44.600 relationship with the opposition party, that's the Progressive Democratic Party. 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.760 They had a majority in parliament. They've been really stonewalling 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:52.240 on various measures over the past couple of years, imparting 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:56.439 his plans for the budget. They've actually threatened impeachment against 0:17:56.440 --> 0:18:00.159 some members of Yun's government and had been probing, you know, 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:04.320 some allegations that they had over matters involving both the 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:08.359 presidents on election interference, and then also some questions about 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:13.320 his wife's purchase of a very suspicious handbag. So there's 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:16.000 been all kinds of drama happening in South Korea recently. 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:18.480 But it really does feel like we've gone from zero 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.160 to one hundred here. I mean, in just a matter 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:24.240 of hours. Last night, you had the president appearing on 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:27.560 television giving a late, very late television address saying that 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:31.040 he was declaring martial law. And it does seem like 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:35.840 this announcement came with very little insight from members of 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:37.680 his own cabinet. I mean, it was really just the 0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:41.200 Defense minister, who actually went to high school with the presidents, 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:43.960 along with a few other senior military members, that seemed 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:46.320 to know even that this was happening. And then it 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:49.640 very clearly was obvious that he had very severely miscalculated. 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:52.800 He was forced to essentially rescind this martial law order 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.399 within just a matter of about six hours, when the 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:59.240 parliament pretty overwhelmingly said absolutely not, you're not going ahead 0:18:59.280 --> 0:18:59.520 with us. 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:02.760 To stick with the analogy of going from zero to 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:05.480 one hundred. We had the governor of Bank of Korea, 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:08.879 re Cheung Yang, on Bloomberg Television seeming to try to 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:11.840 tap the brakes a little bit to try to calm 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:15.920 the markets. What could the market reaction be as this 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:18.080 continues to unfold. 0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:21.720 Well, what we've seen so far. I mean, certainly when 0:19:22.320 --> 0:19:25.440 the president declared this martial law order last night, we 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:29.119 saw a pretty significant drop in the Korean wall, and 0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:32.280 that's the currency. There's a lot of concern going into 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:34.600 morning trading today about how that was actually going to 0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:38.159 weigh on markets. We did see the benchmark index, the 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:42.040 costy close bit lower, but things have started to stabilize. Essentially, 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:44.640 what the Central Bank has come out today to try 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:47.920 to do is say, look, our policies aren't going to 0:19:47.960 --> 0:19:50.479 be impacted by all of this. We understand that obviously 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:52.840 there's a lot of turmoil within the government, but it 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.280 does seem like, you know, that very quick action by 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:58.320 Parliament to you know, essentially shut this down and say, 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:00.280 you know, if you're not going to go had with 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:03.439 this did seem to kind of calm nerves a little bit. 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:06.080 The Central Bank has said, look, you know, we're prepared 0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:07.600 to sort of step in and sort of help the 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:10.360 currency if we absolutely need to. But ultimately, what they're 0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:13.040 saying is that their policies, including you know, you know 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:15.119 what they're doing with policy rates, aren't going to be 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.960 impacted by this turmoil. Even if they did acknowledge that. 0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:19.760 There's obviously going to be quite a bit of tension 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:23.040 going forward. And as you mentioned, we have this prospective 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:25.080 impeachment vote that could be taking place as. 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:27.240 Well, and certainly this is raising a lot of questions 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:28.960 about how South Korea is going to be able to 0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:33.520 govern itself going forward if this impeachment move does progress. 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.320 I mean, there's still a lot of challenges for this 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:38.439 country from China, from North Korea. 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:40.280 I mean, how could this play out over the next 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:41.399 several weeks. 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:44.879 Well, it certainly seems like you know, i mean, the 0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:48.320 opposition party so again, they've got a majority in parliament, 0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:51.080 so they really only need i think, you know, around 0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:53.720 ten or so more votes from members of un Zone 0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:56.840 Party to you know, try to impeach him. It does 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:00.159 seem like since he kept the circle around you know, 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:02.760 this this martial law order so tight, I'm sure it 0:21:03.200 --> 0:21:05.280 seems like, you know, it's very likely he's angered some 0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:08.200 members of his own party here who have actually disavowed 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:11.240 this action. So once we get to that point, what 0:21:11.440 --> 0:21:15.879 ultimately could happen is that it's the opposition leader that 0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:18.399 could ultimately step in and then become the president. What 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:21.760 that likely means, though, is that you know, that Progressive party, 0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:24.240 that that other party that's uh that opposition right now, 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:26.600 they actually take a bit of a softer policy toward 0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:30.119 North Korea, for one thing, and that could have some 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:32.960 pretty broad implications as to what it means for the 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:36.080 South Korea's relationship with the US, and obviously incoming President 0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:39.679 elect Donald Trump could have some implications for the war 0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:42.840 in Ukraine given North Korea's relationship with Russia. So there's 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:46.280 a lot that does have the potential to ultimately change 0:21:46.320 --> 0:21:48.200 here depending on our things move forward. 0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:51.600 This is Bloombery day Break, your morning podcast on the 0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:55.119 stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:57.800 Look for us on your podcast feed by six am 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:01.280 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. 0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:04.600 You can also listen live each morning starting at five am. 0:22:04.720 --> 0:22:07.159 Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in 0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:09.960 New York, Bloomberg in ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:13.960 Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious 0:22:14.240 --> 0:22:15.760 XM Channel one twenty one. 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:16.440 Plus. 0:22:16.520 --> 0:22:19.080 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business App now 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:21.680 with Apple CarPlay and Android Atto interfaces. 0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:25.000 And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. 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