Fair Territory: Mariners sign back Josh Naylor, Kyle Tucker dark horse team, Phillies offseason outlook

00:00:01
Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of Fair Territory. I'm Ken Rosehal hear you here with you for the next I don't know twenty five minutes or so. We do have some stuff to talk about today, some more stuff than usual actually at this time of year, because we have a major free agent signing last night, news coming out Josh Naylor five years with the Seattle Mariners. And you might say five years, well, Josh Naylor is not even twenty nine yet, doesn't turn twenty nine until June. We do not have the money yet. The expectation is that it will be somewhere in the ninety million to one hundred million dollar range. I would not be surprised if it was one hundred, but again we don't know the exact figures yet. And for the Mariners, this is a guy that they targeted, that they wanted to have, that they traded for in July and decided, you know what, this guy is really important to us, and he is. You saw what he did for the Mariners toward the end of the regular season, and of course you saw what he did in the postseason, batting three with a nine to sixty six ops in October. In fifty one played appearances. Beyond all that, Josh Nayler is a guy who has a lot of savvy for the game. We saw that in the way he stole bases this season, and he also brings a certain edge, an edge that you don't see in a lot of players today. And it's not that guys don't want to succeed, but he has a fire about him in a way about him. Teammates love him, and he just seems to elevate the teams that he is on. It's a guy who is just a really good player and worthy of the five year deal considering his age. That's the key thing here now. Obviously the Mets are waiting to sign or trying to sign Pete Alonzo, and five years is going to be the minimum for him. I would expect this kind of sets the bar, at least in the term. I don't know that the money will be anywhere the same because Alonso is the more accomplished player, but the Mets people or Mets writers noted last night, just takes an option off the board. If the Mets do not resign Alonso. We'll see about all that. We'll see how that all plays out. Also with regard to the Mariners, this is only step one. They still have a need either for a second baseman or a third baseman, and the likely next target is Jorge Polanco. This is a guy who, of course, like Naylor, was extremely valuable for them, especially in the postseason. A guy who was coming off knee surgery at this time last year, but got healthier as the year went on, and he is someone that they will probably resign if they do to play second base, but also to DH they want to keep him healthy. That would be the key. With Jorge Polanco. They have Cole Young at second base as well. Didn't really hit much in his debut, but he is a guy they are extremely high on. He was their number one prospect just a year ago, and their infield is interesting also for another reason. Their top prospect now, Colt Emerson, is coming. He is widely seen as a shortstop but can also play third base. I don't know that he'll be ready for opening Day. The Mariners don't know that, but at third base last year they played Ben Williamson, a lot great defender, didn't hit. Traded for Ajohanno Suarez. So if they get Polanco or even sign a third baseman, whether it's Suarez or Murkama. They can do some things then and wait for Emerson fill him in JP Crawford or free agent after this season, so maybe that ultimately will be Emerson's spot. The Mariners are not only a team that was quite accomplished at the major league level this year, but also a team with one of the best farm systems in the game. So Naylor for five years, the first signing, the first big signing of the offseason. You see right there, Aaron Gleaman of the Athletic They ranked Josh Naylor number fourteen of all the free agents on the Athletics Big Board, and Aaron said, I just had a very hard time seeing him anywhere, but re signed with the Mariners. Most everyone agreed with that. This was hardly a surprise last night. Maybe the timing was it was pretty early for a free agency. It's only November sixteenth last night, November seventeenth today, So good for the Mariners getting this done. Step one for them in this free agency. Also something to look at here a team that we've talked about a little bit as a team that's going to be quite interesting this offseason. And Matt Gelbo, the Athletic wrote a fascinating notes column on this team just yesterday, and that team is the Philadelphia Phillies. Why are they so interesting? A couple of reasons. One, they want to resign their free agents, Kyle Schwarber and j t Romuto, and yet they can't do it right away. Both these players are testing the market. Schwarber is a guy who is coming off a monster season, is in some demand. Now you might say, well, who is going to sign him besides the Phillies. I'm not sure exactly which team might be. You can look at the Mets if they lose Alonso, the Red Sox perhaps, or the left handed the Cubs, the Rangers, the Reds. All of these teams would seemingly have an interest. But my goodness, fifty six home runs last year one hundred and thirty two RBIs one I'm sorry, nine to twenty eight ops second in the NL MVP.

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Speaker 2: I trust that there are teams besides the Philadelphia Phillies that want to sign Kyle Schwarber, and that is a reason why the Phillies can't get this done necessarily right away.

00:05:31
Speaker 1: It's gonna want to see what's out there, so it's holding up the Phillies right now, and that's just the way it's going to have to be. At some point. I guess there is a point where they'll need an answer, but we're not nearly there yet. Also with the Phillies, they are looking to trade a left handed reliever, perhaps maybe Matt Strom. And one other interesting thing in Matt's notes column, they're talking about trading off the major league roster now. Dave Dombrowski, as president of operations, not known for trading anything but prospects and has always been willing to trade prospects. But they're at a point now where they've got some I wouldn't call it duplication at the major league level, but some players that they can move, and this way, by trading off the major league roster, they can keep some of their better prospects. They're a little thin right now, and they know that. After the deadline they made some big moves. So that is something to watch with the Phillies as well. Strom Castianos's future is in big trouble there. They could trade Bom, they could trade someone else. They're going to be an interesting team. And finally, before we sign off on this first segment, I want to talk about Jose Ramirez. Here's a guy that we often refer to myself included, as underrated. I don't know that underrated is the right way to look at Jose Ramirez anymore. He's not underrated, but is he underappreciated? I would suggest that he definitely is underappreciated. Here's a guy who finished third in the MVP voting. That was his sixth top five finish in his career. You see the little ex post from the Guardians right there. Thirty homers, thirty four doubles, forty four steals, eight sixty three ops. This is just a really good player. And some people have said, well, it's he a Hall of Famer, and the Guardians referred to him as cooper'stown bound. And I would suggest, yes, that he is definitely on a Hall of Fame track. Jason Stark of the Athletic who covers the Hall of Fame better than anyone outside of maybe j Jaffier Fangras. They're different, but they both cover the Hall of Fame exhaustively. Jason had him across the fifty yard line in his July analysis of Hall of Fame candidates. Across the fifth yard line is of course, heading toward the end zone, and he is not yet at three hundred homers and three hundred steels, though he should get there this next season. And keep this in mind, no third baseman has reached both those totals three hundred home runs and three hundred steals for his career. That way, if he gets there, and he should obviously he's in the two eighties with both, that would make him a unique candidate. Also staying with his team the entire career, all of these things kind of recommend Jose Ramirez as a Hall of Fame player. So underrated, No, you can't call him underrated when he keeps finishing in the top five for MVP, but underappreciated certainly. And if he wasn't in the same league as I don't know, Aaron Judge and cal raally, then maybe at some point Jose Ramirez would be a stronger candidate for MVP. But this guy almost single handedly offensively lifted the Guardians to their shocking Ale Central title nineteen and four down the stretch. He is a really special player, and he was acknowledged yet again in the MVP vote. All right, a lot more to come. We're going to talk about the qualifying offer. The deadline is tomorrow, and it's something that is quite interesting this season, in particular, stay with us inside Dish coming up next AJ.

00:09:07
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00:09:46
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00:10:09
Speaker 1: Well well, well, well, all right, time now for the inside Dish. Now that we've seen our two Blue Genes models, Aj Pazinski and Scott Brun, the inside Dish is something where we talk about maybe a story I've written, maybe a trend in the game, maybe something else going on in the game this week, kind of a combination of all three. We've got the qualifying off for deadline tomorrow. The qualifying off for this year worth twenty two point zero two five million, almost over, I should say over twenty two million for one year. Thirteen players received it, and when I talked with an executive last week at the GM meetings, he said, every one of them is going to reject it. No one wants to be a free agent with the lockout potentially looming next off season. And I thought about that, and I asked some other people about that, and even with the lockout looming, and I understand what the GM was saying. He's saying, hey, no one wants a one year deal then to become a free agent again with a lockout scenario. If you go back to twenty twenty one, when the lockout took effect on December first, what happened right before that? Do you guys remember, I remember was a fleet free agent flurry. Siemen and Segy I'm sorry, Semeon and Seger Kovere Seger and Marcus Semon signed huge deals with the Rangers. Max Schurzer signed his big deal with the Mets. You also saw, obviously al Garcia sign. You saw Edward Rodriguez sign. There was a flurry right before December first hit, and it wasn't as if teams shunned free agents. So I don't expect teams to shun free agents either this offseason or next off season, because even if we lose time in twenty twenty seven, and I don't know that, I expect that to happen necessarily. Even if we do, even if we miss games, eventually the sport's going to return. Teams to need players, and players are going to need jobs. So with that, there are a few players who were offer qualifying offers who might indeed consider it taking them. And I wrote about this last week with Will Simon and Katie Wu and I focused. We focused on four players, Labor Torres, Trent Grisham, Brandon Woodriff, and showed to Imanagan. I'll go through them one by one because they're all interesting in their own ways. Now, Torres is a guy, if you remember last year, monster first half a twelve ops before the All Star Game, named to the All Star Team, one of a number of Tigers who made the All Star Team, and then he fell off in the second half. He struggled. He had a six fifty nine ops after the All Star Game, and we learned later that he was dealing with a sports tourney. I had sports TURNEA surgery after the season, so teams might be a little bit wary because of that. But he's expected to be ready by spring training. So he's a guy who signed a one year, fifteen million dollar deal with the Tigers last off season. This offseason, well, he has coming off a better year. He turns twenty nine next month. This is the same age that Josh Naylor will be next season, and he just got a five year deal, and that's a relatively young free agent, as we know, So will Glabor Torres take this deal? Well, he was happy in Detroit, comfortable there, and twenty two million is a big number in a multi year deal. He is unlikely to get twenty two million, So maybe he takes one year and says, you know what, I'll do this again, go out next season, next off season without a qualifying offer, saddling me, without the potential for a team to lose draft picks by signing me, and maybe be that much more attractive. It's an interesting choice. He'd still be relatively young going into next off season, turning thirty in twenty twenty seven, so I'll be interested to see what he does. My guess is he rejects, but I would not be surprised to see him take it either. Now. Trent Grisham is another interesting taste, maybe even more interesting than Torres. Here's a guy that a year ago the Yankees weren't even certain they were going to tender him, offer him a contract, ends up taking a pay cut from five and a half million to five million, and then what happened We all saw it. Thirty four homers, career high and a career high eleven eight eleven ops. A thirty four home run total was double his previous career high. So he too is a younger free agent plays next season at twenty nine. The question with him is is he a center fielder. His defensive metrics went down last year significantly. He wasn't the center fielder he was earlier in his career, but a number of his offensive metrics were really intriguing. Chase rate fourth lowest in the majors, behind only Sodo Glabor Torres and Kyle Tucker. Walkerrate was the ninth highest. He did a lot of good things at the plate. He's kind of remade himself, changed his mental approach, changed things in the box. He's done a lot of good things offensively. So in a market short on center fielders, he really is number three behind Tucker and Cody Bellinger. Will they reject I kind of think he's going to reject the offer, and if he does, then the Yankees have some more interesting choices in the outfield. They have said they would be comfortable with both Grisham and Bellinger if they could resign Bellinger, and if that happens, they've got some interesting choices with Spencer Jones, whether to trade him or not, but we'll see what Trent Grisham decides. He is going to be an interesting guy tomorrow to watch. Finally, two starting pitchers, Brandon Woodriff and Shoeda in Monaga. Now they are much different as far as their circumstances, but they're both starters, and starting pitchers generally in free agency generate the most fervent markets, the most interest because of course they are in such short supply quality starting pitchers. That is now, Brandon Woodriff is a really interesting case. You would think this guy's definitely going to take it. He turned thirty three in February, missed all of twenty four coming off shoulder surgery, made only twelve starts for Milwaukee last season, and then was shut down in September with a separate issue. So here's a guy twelve starts in two years and he's getting off for twenty two million. Might want to take it, but I don't know that that's the case. He had a great performance in those twelve starts. He had a three point two strikeout walk race that was the best of his career, albeit in a limited sample. So Mac boyd, if you remember last year, the same number of starts as Brandon Woodriff, including postseason, got twenty nine million for two years from the Chicago Cubs, Brandon Woodriff might be able to do the same thing. Excuse me, and then the show to Imanaga, thirty two years old. The Cubs turned down his three year option, he turned down a player option in return, and he goes out in the open market after getting the qualifying offer from the Cubs. So what will he do. He's an interesting guy because he wasn't as good in his second year as he was in his first. But I would still expect him to get a multi year. So with Woodruff and Imenaga, because they are starting pitchers, because the demand for starting pitchers is so intense, I would expect that they're going to get significant multi year interest. They are among the better free agents out there, beyond the top tier, which is from er Valdez, Dylan Cees, Tatsua Ami and Ranger Suarez. Those are the top four. So we'll see how this goes. We'll see if anyone takes the qualifying offer tomorrow, or we'll see if that head of Baseball Operations who told me no one's taken it. No one wants to be a free agent next offseason, we'll see if he's proven correct. Could possibly be correct, but I do expect maybe one or two of these players to accept the qualifyal offer again. We will see. All right. That is it for the inside dish, grilling tent billing Ken. We're not going to god ten Grilling Ken is next. Stay with us. Your questions coming up?

00:18:18
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00:19:05
Speaker 1: Time out for Grill and Ken. The part of the show where I answer your questions. Let's get right to them and get to as many as we can. First week question comes from Tyler Max Smith, who asks, who if the Braves failed to sign hot showing Kim, what are some other options at shortstop? Good question, Tyler, and the answer is there aren't many, and they might have to be creative and make a trade because free agent wise, there really aren't any shortstops out there. Bobashett, yes, but teams for the most part do not consider him a shortstop. And I don't believe that the Atlanta Braves are going to pay Bobashett what he is going to command in the open market. So they could do a couple of things. They could bring back Nick Allen. They can maybe make a trade, figure out something else. But I don't necessarily see a great alternative besides Kim, which of course puts Kim in a great position with the Atlanta Braves and in general in the open market, because the supply of shortstops is so short. All right. Next question, this one comes from doctor Utu, who says, what are the chances Marte gets traded? I assume he's talking about Katel Marte and not Starling Marte, because katel Marte is a name that is out there and you might say, whoa why would the Diamondbacks want to trade katel Marte. He's one of the best second basemen in the game, if not the best. He is under a contract that extends for a while but pays him at a relatively reasonable rate. What are they thinking? What they're thinking is that they have a lot of holes. If you recall, Corvin Burns underwent Tommy John surgery last year, so did a j Puck and relief, so did Justin Martinez. I will, said Nick Martinez. So that's three important pictures that they're down just by injury alone. And of course Merrill Kelly and Zach Allen, two of their starters, are also in free agency and not expected to resign with Arizona. So in that case, they have a lot of needs. They also have some needs in the outfield, and that is why they see Marte potentially if they get the right offer, filling some of those needs and allowing them to do some other things. So what are the chances he gets traded? My guess would be fifty to fifty. I'm sure the Diamondbacks would want a lot Forktel Marte and it will be interesting to see whether some team is willing to meet their demands for him or their desires. I don't want to say demands because teams hate that word their desires for kateel Marte. So we'll see how that goes. But I would not be surprised to see him moved one bit. Next question, this one comes from Video Game Nation twenty six, that could be any child in America. Ken, who do you think is a better option for the Red Sox for a number two started Joe Ryan or signing someone like from Er Valdez. First off, we're not even sure Joe Ryan is going to be traded, And it just seems to me, after making the Crochet deal last year and trading four good prospects, really good prospects, some of whom have already surfaced in the majors, that the Red Sox preference would be to sign a free agent, whether it's Valdez, whether it's Cease, whether it's in my Ranger Suarez, whoever that might be. It just would seem that that would be the way to go. Now, if you can make a deal that you like for Joe Ryan for two years, you do have a strong form system or some other starter in that category. Sure, maybe that's the better alternative if the prices for the starters get I don't know, into a level where the Red Sox are not comfortable, but my goodness, after trading Raphael Devers and purging the three hundred and thirty million remaining on his deal, the Red Sox should be comfortable signing a big free agent. All right, next question, Let's see what this one brings us from Jim. Jim Horta, who's a relief picture that the Dodgers can be eyeing on the trade market. From what you hear o the trade market, I've been focusing mostly on free agents with regard to trades and relief pitching. You know what, Jim, I'm not going to answer that because I'm not sure of the answer, and I hate to answer questions what I don't know. Sometimes it's better just to say I don't know. We do know that they've been linked to some free agents, Devin Williams being one. I would think they're an outside contender for Edwin Diaz, but really only if his market falls apart, and maybe some of these other relievers who were out there as well. Ryan Hillsley would be another possibility. So I see them being more active in free agency. But there is a possibility of a trade too. We mentioned earlier in the show Matt stromp a guy that the Phillies are at least listening on. That would be one possibility. And I'm sure there are others. Relievers come and go, and there are also quite a few others who will be coming onto the free agent market this week when the non tender deadline hits. That's Thursday, So the Dodgers will play all their options out and just see what it brings them. All Right, we have Banana, the bad Guy, Williams forty eight to sixty. I love these names. Who is the surprise team that you see for Kyle Tucker? Great question, and I'll give you one, and it came up. Will Salmon of The Athletic wrote about it, as did Patrick Mooney. They wrote a combined story about Kyle Tucker and they listed this surprise team the Baltimore Orioles. Now, I do not expect the Oriols to sign Kyle Tucker, let me say that right off the top. But while their bigger needs are starting pitching a top of the rotation starter number three at least, and a bullpen that they need to address and have started to address with the signing of Andrew Kittridge. Tucker would fit as he would fit for any team, and not only that. Michae Elias when he was with the Houston Astros, and of course he's now the president of baseball Operations with the Oriols, Michae Elias drafted Kyle Tucker, and people in baseball are often attached to people that they draft. They kind of never lose that affection and feel for them. And for that reason, I can at least see their interest. I can also see them spending more money than they did even last off season. So I'm not saying the Oils are going to be in there deep for Kyle Tucker. I don't know that they will. They have these other priorities, but could they be a team that surfaces. Yeah. Remember last off season they offered KERB Corbyn Burns one hundred and eighty million for four years. That was a serious offer. Now Kyle Tucker is going to be twice that most likely. I don't know if they want to go there, but it's something that I think we will see them linked to in the coming weeks. All right, well, thank everyone for watching, for listening. Foul Territories coming up. Jim Bowden, Lance Lynn and Marcus Thames join Alana, AJ and Krats. That's a lot of Rizzo. AJ presents the and Aer Krats. Fair Territory returns Thursday, our usual twelve thirty EASTERNS time slot. Alto Rizzo is back with us. We'll talk to you then. Have a great week. Everyone has been fast. Estaishmst