Fair Territory - AL MVP debate: Judge or Raleigh? HUGE AL West series

00:00:01
Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Happy Thursday. Welcome to the Thursday edition of Fair Territory. I'm Ken Rosenthal here with my friend Alana Rizzo.

00:00:08
Speaker 2: A lot.

00:00:08
Speaker 1: We've got a ton to get to, as always, a potpourri of baseball things. But I want to start off, and I know you want to talk about this too. The best story in baseball right now from an individual perspective, not team, and that's the AL MVP race. It is fascinating and I will say it off the top and I'll say it again throughout the show. I do not believe there is a wrong choice.

00:00:31
Speaker 3: It is not a clear cut answer, Ken, but it is a conversation that we continue to have for good reason. Cal Raley Aaron Judge both monumental seasons. But which one is the MVP in the AL.

00:00:45
Speaker 1: That's the question, and that's something that the voters will decide. Jason Stark wrote a piece this week about Raleigh and just what he means to the Mariners and quoting a lot of people involved with the Mariners about what he means. And the key question here for me when we look at this race is how much do you value the difference in ops? And it's one hundred and eighty four points. Today, Judge is one hundred and eighty four points higher than Raleigh versus what Raleigh offers and contributes on the defensive side, much of which cannot be measured. And that's the difficulty when a catcher is in this race. If you read Jason's stories, one of the story one of the things that stood out to me, jumped out at me, was the idea that Raleigh has to deal not just with an zero for four if that's what happens on a particular night. Offensively, he's catching one hundred and fifty pitches a night, right, So if the Mariners lose, for example, and let's say three or four pitches he wishes he could have back, well, then you're having to deal with that side of it emotionally as well as the offensive side of it emotionally, as well as just dealing with pictures, comforting pictures, consoling pictures, advising pictures, working through game plans, all of the different things that a catcher does. The way a catcher handles the staff, it's not something we can measure. You can say, yes, well, the era is this with this catcher, but there's much more to it than that. There's a psychological element. So all of these things make Cal Raley a fascinating MVP candidate more so than most position players, any other position player, a catcher is different. Now, the other thing here that jumps out at me is the fact that Raley is having a season that kind of breaks the scales for a catcher. It's a historic season for a catcher, fifty six home runs, which also is a record for a switch hitter. It beat Mickey Mantle's record for a switch hitter. So these elements, these records setting, parts of this equation play into it. And if you go back to twenty twenty two, Aaron Judge sixty two home runs, brilliant season. The reason he was MVP over hey O Tani in the American League was largely that he did something historic. Now, the problem with making this case for Raleigh is that Judge also is doing something historic, and his season is quite comparable to his seasons in twenty twenty two and twenty four. We can show that to you strictly in terms of ops. It's not the same number of home runs, and it's a little bit different because he hasn't been in the field quite as much. Raley is also DHD at times. But here's Judge, look at the ops's they're all comparable. And his OPS plus, which is about a one hundred percent above the league average in each case, that's all amazing as well. So we have two great candidates here and Alana. It's going to be a heck of a thing down the stretch as we see how this plays out just in the final two weeks or so of the season.

00:03:51
Speaker 3: Kenny, it's funny because I'm looking at our chat here in videos two oh seven brings up a good point. I am okay with saying Call is the MVP this season. He has earned It is no slide on, Judge. To your point, you can't make a wrong decision. But let me ask you, this is there such a thing Ken Rosenthal as judge fatigue. Are we tired of how good this guy is on a yearly basis?

00:04:13
Speaker 1: I hope not, And we should never get tired of a SuperStar's performance. It's what we live for, it's what we watch the games for. My goodness, Michael Jordan won all those MVPs. We were okay with that. And I wrote about this phenomenon a couple of weeks ago because It also applies to Shoheo Tani. People might think, let's just have somebody else win this award. These guys have won or a few times each, now let's just try the other guy. Raleigh might benefit a little bit from that. He shouldn't. This should be decided strictly on the merits. And if you wonder about, well, is there a New York bias in the voting? Now, you can make the case certainly because Judge plays are the largest media market in the country that it gets more attention than Raleigh. Okay, But the way the voting is done each of the BBWAA awards, it's two voters in each city, so there's no New York bias. New York has the same weight as Seattle in the al MVP balloting. The question is, in this day and age, is that even a thing? And I don't believe it is because we know we see so much more than we used to. I know, Cal Raley plays in Seattle on the West coast, and people in the East Coast don't always see his games, but the statistical information is so much deeper. We can certainly watch highlights, and you can certainly go back and watch games. You can see this guy any number of ways, and the voting members of the BBWA, the people who will decide this, they're paying attention. It's not going to be a New York bias type thing. I don't have a vote this year for that category. I am voting for another one. But it's going to be again, really interesting because what Raley is doing. I was not really on board with Raleigh until he got the switch hitting record. When he tied it, tied Mantle and then beat it. Then I started thinking, Man, it's hard to deny this. This is historic for that position, and that is the most valuable position arguably on the field. Now, if Kyle Raley gets to sixty, which he could do, he's a fifty six, that could change the equation. If the Mariners rore into the playoffs behind cal Raley, that could vote or that could affect voter perceptions and the same. But the Yankees, they're kind of set in where they are right now, top wildcard, not going to win the division most likely. But if Judge has a big finish to his season, sure that could make a difference too.

00:06:35
Speaker 3: Let me ask you this, Ken Rosenthal. I know you're not voting on this particular category. This year you do have a vote in a different category. But is there pressure this season on the BBWAA because it's not cut and dry. And I take us back to the two thousand and two al Cy Young Award. It was Barry Zito that won it in terms of first place. Pedro Martinez came in second. Now it's a different era. I can understand that it's one wildcard, ninety three win Red Sox didn't make the playoffs. Zito didn't have a historic year, but Pedro Martinez the Cy Young Ward of course in ninety seven, ninety nine to two thousand, arguably had a better statistical year, yet he still lost. Is there pressure on the writers to get this right, especially in a season in which cal Rawly is having a historic season as a catcher.

00:07:23
Speaker 1: Well, it wouldn't be the first time we got one wrong if we get it wrong. And I don't know that there is a wrong choice. As I said at the top, here in that situation you just described Alon going back to two thousand and two, and I know it's a long time ago, but the relevance here is Pedro had already won the Sy Young three times. Zito was not a new face exactly, but a fresh face in this balloting. Now, Zeno did pitch thirty more innings that year. He had twenty three wins. I think it was three more than Pedro, and that was a time when wins were still considered very heavily in the cy Young race. So I don't know that we blew that one. But that issue of voter fatigue, We've talked about it, and I've written about it. It's a real thing. And I just would hate to see anyone pick Raleigh because he's tired of picking Judge or she's tired of picking Judge. That's not a reason you have to decide this thing. On the merits and the other part of this. With Judge, let's look at where he is in the three triple slash categories, because he's amazing in leading all of them in the major leagues batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage. Here he is. He's first in all of them. He's first by a good margin in all of them. So we cannot ignore the historic significance of what he is accomplishing. And while it's not maybe as gaudy as Raleigh and as dramatic, as Raleigh, it's still an incredible campaign. It's still Aaron Judge at his apex, and if not for cal Raley, this would be around just as last season. If not for Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt might have won. It's always that way in these kinds of races when they're close. So there are two worthy contenders here and that's the bottom line. I know people are going to have their opinions and should that's what the awards are all about. But whoever wins, I don't know that there's going to be a loser, let's put it that way.

00:09:13
Speaker 3: It's a fascinating conversation. Ken, what if these two were on the same team. I think our heads would just blow off of our next if cal Ralely and Aaron were pretty good. As we pivot to the next conversation from the AL East and AL West, staying in the AL West when it comes to the Houston Astros, Ken and the Seattle Manners, Mariners and Astros, it's getting good. I tell you what. I'm not certain what's happening as far as that AO West spot is concerned. But Jordan Alvarez, the ankle injury, the Mariners, the Astros. It's a toss up right now, what's your take on this whole thing.

00:09:48
Speaker 1: The Astros are coming off a series that, frankly was really impressive against Texas. It was a series that they sort of had to win to vanquish Texas and put them out of the race, which they largely did. And it was a sa in which they faced Texas's three best pitchers and got only one ending out of Rodan Alvarez before he suffered that spring left ankle, and they scored seventeen runs combined in the three games off Jack Lider, Merrill Kelly, and Jacob de Grom, seventeen off the starters. Not all of them were earned, but most of them were, so that was really impressive to do that. Without Alvarez, they could get ezac Parades back, and if they get him back, there's your replacement for Alvarez if he does not come back from that ankle injury. So the Astros to me are still the team to beat. They continue to impress with just their utter resilience. It's just impressive what they do withstanding all of the injuries that take place and have taken place for them throughout the year. Now, the Mariners have one more game in their series against the Royals in Kansas City today and after that they will either be tied again for the AL West lead or one game back or a half game out. As of right now, that ten game winning streak ended yesterday. We're going to see this weekend a tremendous series between these two teams. Hunter, Brown and Valdez will pitch for the Astros as well as Alexander, and for the Mariners, they're going to pitch their three best Wu and Kirby and Gilbert. So it's going to be really something, and it's in Houston. It's going to be huge tests for the Mariners. And then after that we'll see in the final two series or four series how this all plays out.

00:11:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned it's in Houston, and I know that you just play the schedule that you're given Ken, everybody has to do it. But the remaining games for these two clubs I would imagine play a factor at this very moment of the season.

00:11:34
Speaker 1: They certainly do, and let's take a look at it because it's kind of interesting to see what they have in front of them. So with the Astros, I'm sorry, it is two series remaining after this one, there's the road trip to Sacramento and the Los Angeles Angels. Now, Sacramento is not an easy place to play. There's some teams. The Tigers in particular have gotten beaten up there because the A's offense is really good. So that's six games on the road. The Mariners after the huge series, come home where they are so good. Three against the Rockies that should be easy, then three against the Dodgers. And it's unclear exactly at this point where the Dodgers will be at that point of the season. Will they have clinched the NL West, will they still be fighting for the NL West title. So it's all in front of both these teams and we'll see how it plays out. But this series this weekend, that's going to be important. Now, if the Astros have the league going into the series, if they lead by a game, the Mariners lose today, obviously that's a little bit of a cushion, but it's not much of a cushion.

00:12:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of day games going on on this Thursday, September eighteenth. All right, coming up, make sure you get those questions in for Grill and Ken. We want to hear from you. Your opportunity to ask Ken Rosenthal a question. We will be back right after this.

00:12:50
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00:13:02
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00:13:56
Speaker 3: All right time. How to get those questions in for Grill and Ken. We'll start actually, Ken with the game that you have right now. You are in Baltimore, a Yankees at Baltimore. I understand the oh's a bit of a disappointment if you will already eliminated from postseason contention, but the Yankee still a ton to play for. What are your expectations for this game and what do the Yankees need to do to continue to solidify that postseason spot.

00:14:19
Speaker 1: It's Max Freed versus Kid Povich tonight too lanky left handers. And the thing to me that is most important for the Yankees right now is getting their bullpen in order. Now. The last two nights they had Schlitler and they had He'll kind of struggle and the bullpen was not as much of a factor in those games. Perhaps the Yardborough allowed for I think that was maybe in the first game, I don't remember. But they need to get straight there. And it seems that the Yankees, they'll have a couple of relievers going well and then a couple will sputter, and that's the issue. They've got the potential to be a really good bullpen. When you look at the back four going from the ninth inning back Bednor, Williams and Cruise. It's outstanding. Mark Leighter, Junior and Doval are in a little bit different roles, lower leverage, certainly in Daval's case, and even lighter, and perhaps there's been an adjustment for them getting used to lesser roles in a sense. But it just seems that they cannot get all these guys going at once, and that's going to be huge for them because right now they've got Freedom Rodn lined up for Games one and two, and they will be in a wild card series almost certainly at this point, and then they don't even know who the third starter will be, someone between will Warren, camp Schlitzler and Louis Heel. And then the bullpen, you know, is going to be in play for probably all three of those games. No one's pitching a complete game in the playoffs, So that is the thing to watch here for the Yankees. They've got the best offense in the majors. They hit the most home runs in the majors. They are a potent group, and I like where they are offensively, but their pitching still is something of a question. And of course how well they play, how crisply they play, that's going to be a defining element of their postseason as well.

00:16:03
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, just look at last season as far as that is concerned, that fundamental baseball and those mistakes. I know everybody thinks that Rob Manfred has the easiest job in the world. I don't, But Foul Territory asks you this, Ken, what would you change if you were Rob Manfred for the day, if you were the commissioner of this great game of ours? What would you change?

00:16:24
Speaker 1: The biggest thing I would like to see happen in this game is better labor relations. Now, if I were a commissioner of the day or for a day, I could not necessarily fix that in one day, and maybe I couldn't fix it at all. But that is kind of this game's achilles heel labor relations. And it's true there has not been a game missed due to a work stoppage in a long time, since ninety four to ninety five. But there is always fighting, and there is quite frankly an imbalance in this sport financially from the team's perspectives. Some teams have big resources and some teams don't, and this sport cannot seem to find the better balance. I'm not ever going to say it's going to be completely balanced in a system that does not include a salary cap. But that's the one thing I'd like to see better labor relations. I'd like to see them start negotiating the new CBA right now, even though it doesn't expire until after next season. Let's get this thing going. The sport isn't a really good place. It needs to continue that without the usual bickering and moaning and whining and all the things that go on when labor talks are happening.

00:17:32
Speaker 3: Honestly, especially with the stoppages recently as we've had it, it's just a black eye on the sport. There's a lot of things I'm sure that folks would like to change. For me personally, I would make number twenty one retired, just like number forty two is. I would retire number twenty one in all Major League ballparks, and on Roberto Clemente Day, which we just had on September fifteenth, everybody would wear number twenty one, just as everybody wears number forty two on April fifteenth. All right, next question here, Gorilla and Ken is in regards to Nick Kurtz Maney, think of course, Ken, he's going to be the American League Rookie of the Year, one of the bright spots of course for the athletic here's your question, videos two o seven. Which team is going to try to trade for Nick Kurtz in the offseason? All of them? Ken, what say you?

00:18:17
Speaker 1: I'm sure teams will ask. But the A's, at least in theory, are building towards something. The opening of their new ballpark in Las Vegas in twenty twenty eight. That's the date right now that is scheduled. And yes, they did trade Mason Miller, and Mason Miller was a player who had some years of control left, but he was also a reliever. They're not trading Nick Kurtz, who might be one of the most valuable hitters in the sport already in his first full season, not even a full season. So yes, teams will want him. Teams probably will ask about him. You can ask about whoever you want. But the A's are not trading Nick Kurtz.

00:18:53
Speaker 3: I'm glad to hear that. I hope they are building something. I was surprised when they let Mason Miller go, but I do hope that they build as they move forward. To bad that new ball park. Okay, much more to come here on Fair Territory with Ken Rosenthal. We're going to take a quick break and then we're going to have our Dude and Dork of the Week right after this.

00:19:10
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00:19:36
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00:20:01
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00:20:11
Speaker 3: Dude, dude, dude, can you have the honors? Who's your dude?

00:20:22
Speaker 1: I was tempted to go with Justin Verlander, who has had a remarkable end to his season and plans to pitch again next season, but I'm going to give it to the Cleveland Guardians. It's a team we don't talk about a lot, but right now they've won six straight, they're nine games over five hundred, they are four and a half games back in the division, just two and a half games back in the wild card, and they're doing this all without Remember Luis Ortiz and Emmanuel classa starting pitcher and one of the top relievers in the game. Those two are under investigation for gambling activities. So hats off to the Guardians because number one, this season didn't crumble after those players were put on leave, and number two they just have kept going and do I expect them to make the playoffs. No, the odds are still great against it because of the deficits that they face. But they've had a really good run here to tribute to Stephen Vote, a tribute to Jose Ramirez and of course the rest of their coaching staff and players. That's an organization that has it together and we see it year after year. There is no reason to believe they should have been this good, and yet here.

00:21:27
Speaker 3: They are, no doubt about it. I enjoy the Guardians. They're a hard team to dislike in terms of that they're very non polarizing, if you will. I was going to give my dude to Trey Yasavage, obviously, the top pitching prospect for the Toronto Blue Jays, had a tremendous debut against the Tampa Bay Rays. Great job, Trey, but I'm actually going to give it to Blake Snell. And the reason being Ken is because he's doing something now that he's not like pictures in this day and age are not allowed to do. Right, he actually got through the third time, the order through the third time, and he was actually allowed to stay out there and complete seven innings. Now, Dave Roberts came out to get it and Alex Vessia was already halfway to the mound out of the bullpen, and Blake Snell looked at Dave and said, I got it. I got it.

00:22:09
Speaker 1: So I give it to.

00:22:10
Speaker 3: Blake Snell for having that fire in his system, that fire in his veins. And I also give credit to Dave Roberts for allowing him to stay out there trusting in his player and the emotion that both displayed when Blake Snell was able to get that final strikeout in the seventh inning, and then you can turn it over to the bullpen after that. So Blake Snell, Dave Roberts, you are my Dudes of the week. Time. Now for Dork of the Week.

00:22:43
Speaker 1: I'm going to give it to a team and not a player. The team's the New York Mets, and the New York Mets, while they still look like they're going to get the final National League wildcard, they created a race when there is none. As I wrote the other day, this is the National League Wildcard Race, or the race for the third wild Card, brought to you by the New York Mets forty five and twenty four on June twelfth. We all know the numbers best in the majors at that time, and since then they have been well under five hundred. They've allowed the Reds and the Giants and the Diamondbacks to hang around. And do I expect any of those teams to go grab it. They're all at five hundred or one game above.

00:23:20
Speaker 5: No.

00:23:21
Speaker 1: But the fact that the Mets are seventy eight and seventy four with a three hundred and forty million dollar payroll. Nah, Folks of the week.

00:23:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, they created this mess themselves. They have nobody to blame but themselves. Ken Rosenthal, my dork of the week is actually the Brewers, and the reason being is because of the whole Bob Yucker letter after the Brewers clinched the celebration. I believe the intent was beautiful. I believe the intent was good. I believe the execution of the letter was a little peculiar. It seemed like it was a letter supposedly from the late great Bob Yucker to the Milwaukee Brewers that he wrote obviously before his passing to congratulate the team because he knew that they were going to get into the postseason. But it was a little bit more of commentary from perhaps Pat Murphy himself. The Brewers social media team kind of let it get out there and led us to believe that it was actually from mister Yucker. But I don't believe it actually was written by Bob Yucker himself. So the whole thing was a little crazy. Again. Idea, phenomenal, execution, a little bit questionable, and obviously he means so much to that organization, so it was just a little bit, a little bit hokey, you know.

00:24:33
Speaker 1: What, a lot of I understand what you're saying. I liked the idea, but in this day and age, and we know this too at the Athletic, it kind of have to make everything very clear. So it's not true. If the Brewers had said this is an imaginary letter from Bob Yucker and this is what we're going to do to celebrate and reading that, which was kind of in his voice, they would have probably saved themselves a lot of trouble. I was not confused by this, understood it, but at the same time, I knew why people did get confused once it started getting out and people are like, WHOA, what's this? So it was a good idea, and it just seemed to me the Brewers needed to be a little clearer on what exactly it was.

00:25:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, no doubt about it, because again we all ran with it, ourselves included. We are just as much at fault as the other media outlets. But again, congratulations to Pat Murphy, Mark Antonasio. The Brewers. Clinching the NL Central is no small feat. We are proud of you. It's just a little bit odd, all right. Well that's going to do it here for Fair Territory with Ken Rosenthal. Don't forget. Ken has a brand new episode on Monday. Watch him tonight on Fox. The New York Yankees at the Baltimore Orioles. Coming up next, it is Foul Territory myself a JA, here's instant Eric Kratz. We're going to be joined by Buck show Walker and Cubbs shortstop van Zba's Pants and Foul Territory one pm Eastern. We'll see you then. Take care, Ken, have a good weekend, you too. Allow them bet MGM players will receive an MLB Parley Boost token. To use the token at a parley wager made up of entirely MLB bets to your betslip and activate the token. Score extra winnings if you're wager that was made with the parlay boost token wins gambling problem. More concerned, there is help. Call one eight hundred Gambler