2024 MLB Draft Preview with Carlos Collazo of Baseball America

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Hammer Territory podcast, part of the Foul Territory Network. I'm your host, Brad Roland, and I'm joined by someone on this podcast. It is very familiar to Braves fans and people that I guess podcast that I host in some respect, he is a subject matter expert on this topic. He is Carlos Colazl on Baseball America. Hello, sir, how are you.

00:00:41
Speaker 2: What's up? Brad? How's it going? Man? Happy to be here. Thanks for having me.

00:00:44
Speaker 1: I always appreciate you doing this. I try not to bug you more than once a year in podcast fashion, and I try not to do it like the day before the draft because that way you probably have one hundred things to do that day. So here we are. People probably know you, but this is what you do. You're a legitimate and MLB draft expert. Uh, you'll be, I believe on the first night of the draft. On the TV side, you're a TV star for one day.

00:01:04
Speaker 2: One. I don't know about a star, but I'm at least on TV for one day a year, and I do cover the draft at BA. So excited for the time of year. Yeah, it is funny the amount of people who I never hear from, who will like hit me up the day of the draft and ask if I can do a like a radio hit.

00:01:23
Speaker 1: I'm like, uh no, I'm very busy today. Yeah. Yeah, I hesitated to you and ask you when I did, because I was like, you know, it's it's probably a little bit late, but I'll try my best. I know you did Friends of Ours the Peach Day Prospects podcast. I listened to you on that show with Garage Yea and those guys. That was fun.

00:01:41
Speaker 2: So yeah, and this is my first appearance on the pod since you guys have moved over to the Fell Territory network.

00:01:46
Speaker 1: So that's true. I was gonna say, I have to do the spiel every time you come on at Carlson. I actually founded the Battery Power podcast before. It was Talking Job before that, and now we're it's the same crew, but we're on a new feed, so it's kind of the same show. But yeah, this is your debut on Hammer Territory anyway, although I know you've been on Foul Territory a few times. That's all you were on there for the Combine a couple of weeks ago. I've live on video and all those things, and I mean my actual actually have been my debut recently on faul Territory and probably messed it up.

00:02:11
Speaker 3: I don't know.

00:02:12
Speaker 2: Well, that's awesome. Yeah, they do a show with that's called Hot Sheet that happens weekly. That's really fun. So I love those guys and glad to see you a part of the network. So that's cool.

00:02:20
Speaker 1: Absolutely, we're having fun. So anyway, we'll get to these specifics a little bit here. I always admit this, but I'll say it on the show. I know very little about the MLB draft, which is why I'm getting someone who does know something about this. So this is not an area where I'm going to inject much of my own opinion. I don't really have opinions at this point in time. But just to way the groundwork, the draft is this Sunday is people are about to listen to this podcast. The first two rounds is well, the first the first day of the draft to Sunday. The first day is the first two full rounds plus the first two coup rounds. The Braves have two picks in that first day. I think it's twenty four and sixty two. Yeah, that's right, and their bonus pool is like seven point seven ish million dollars. M WIB draft is weird, always different than other drafts. When you think about it, you're you're laughing as I'm saying that it just is. But let's just do the top guys first. They are not Braves targets. They're obviously famous players. There's a little bit of product, is it Charlie is it? It's Charlie Connon Right, It's like he's like maybe, like not necessarily could set this number one, but he's kind of up there on all the lists. What do you think about the top of the draft, the more famous players that the Braves can't have access to in this class.

00:03:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the top of the draft is actually quite good. I've had a few scouts tell me that if this draft was like a ten player draft would be a really good draft. But because it's not, most people don't think it's that good. I think the class as a whole is probably below average. It might be the weakest draft that I've covered since I joined BA, which is going back to like twenty seventeen draft. But the top ten players is actually quite solid. Charlie Conden, who you mentioned, is number one on our board. I think throughout the industry he is a consensus top two player in the class. If you don't have Charlie Condon number one, whilst other people have Travis Bizana Organ say second baseman number one. We've got those guys one too with But yeah, he's had a monstrous offensive season. He added a lot of defensive versatility to his profile, which really helps improve it. But if you're taking fund in one, you're taking him because of the bat is a potential plus hit tool of seventy grade power upside. He's going to set a number of records just given the offensive environment in college baseball this year. In the phenomenal season he had. I think he's got a chance to be the first Power five conference hitter in the Bonus Pool era to go in the first round. With the career average over four hundred, he'll have like the best slugging percentage of any of these players, will have the best home run rate for any players in this kind of era of baseball. So he has pretty exceptional numbers, but I think there are real tools behind it, and the fact that he's kind of right out there and played center field and played there and looked decent in college makes his profile quite appealing.

00:04:48
Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, I was going to ask you about the class general, because like you know, there's always this. This's actually happened to me recently with the end with the NBA Draft, whereas this always is like, okay, what makes a good draft between the top talent and the depth of the class and what you got into. It sounds like there's not a lot of depth in this class, but the top talent is there. It was the exact opposite in the NBA draft that not anybody cares, but there was just no top guys in the NBA draft. So it's like almost philosophical, like if you have it, if you have a top five pix, it's like you're probably in pretty good shape. The Braves don't, of course, But does that sound like that's sound reasonable? It's just top heavy? Is that all it is?

00:05:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's It's kind of interesting because this year's top tier is not as good as last year's top five. Like the twenty twenty three class, I think all of those five players would have a chance to rank number one in this class still, but the twenty twenty three draft is like the best draft i've ever covered, and I think part of it is just the biggest reason this draft is considered weak for most Scounce is the high school class is really weak, both on the hitting and pitching side, and I think specifically for the high school class, it's a lack of top end hitters and pitchers. Like you mentioned, I think for most classes, teams would really prefer it to be top heavy and to have some real studs at the top of the class that you can feel confident in, because I mean, the nine eighteen draft is one that I always point to. At the time, Scout's really hammered the depth of that class, but there was a really strong top six. Ali Rusf and Bobby with Junior have been great, and looking back now, that twenty nineteen class is much better in hindsight than Scouts thought it was the day of. So maybe this twenty four class is going to be the same where it kind of gets hammered at the time we're all covering it and watching it, but there are gonna be players that pan out. I do think there's some reasonable depth on the high school pitching side. There are not too many organizations that have really tried to dive into that demographic. The Braves are one of those organizations that has so maybe that'll benefit them. But I think the biggest thing for this class that makes it challenging is there's a pretty significant drop off in talent after this top ten or eleven tier of players, And every team that I've talked to picking in kind of the middle of the first round and back third has just massive nets that they've casted because they have no idea who's available, and it's very difficult to separate this next tier of like forty players or so. So I think it's going to be pretty chaotic on draft day, which will be fun for people watching and maybe for people who are following teams picking lower because who knows who's going to be available to you this year?

00:07:07
Speaker 1: Yeah again, acknowledge you my amateur status here. It seems like maybe you got some guys that might fall, maybe maybe still considerations of bonus pool stuff and you're drafting guys for how much they're going to take, and that always happens, but is that even more so this time around? Once you get past that top ten, like the guy's fall that maybe my money wise, like we're trying to scheme this whole thing.

00:07:25
Speaker 2: I think so, and I think that could even happen, like inside the top ten. One of the big things that teams are grappling with this year is the fact that the bonus pools have risen. I think it's eight point seven percent year over year, so the pools are massive this year. There are three slot value like the top three picks have slot values of nine million or higher. We only handed out our first nine million dollar bonus last year in the draft with Paul Schemes and Dylan Cruz, and I can't imagine the industry is going to be paying any one slot value for one to one, which is ten point five million, which would shatter the amateur bonus pool record. So I know there is a thought in the industry that, like this year's talent is just not worth the bonus bulls. So if that underslotting starts inside the top ten picks, a lot of players are going to slide down boards. A majority of the players who are signing the first round over the last few years are on underslot deals at this point because so many teams just like using that portfolio approach in the draft. So that could lead to some guys who, in my mind I'm thinking are going to be gone by the twelfth to thirteenth pick, sliding a little bit further. It happens every year, but it's just hard to predict who those players are going to be and who's going to jump up into that top ten range on a deal that we're not expecting. So someone will do it. But yeah, this year, I'll be very interested to see just how many actual slot value deals or overslot deals we have in the first round.

00:08:40
Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts on the Braves. Of course, last year they went kind of up. Actually, they picked the i think right handed pitchers from college with the first three picks, and they i think some of their first ten. I don't if that means the thing. There's been this turnover the last from years pack this is not new this year, but they have a different leadership structure. Honestly, this is broad and it's hard to pinpoint who they're going to take at twenty four, especially two. It's like, I don't I know you trying to do mock drafts and let's just putting that behind the that's not that's not consideration for anybody else. But I've had to do mock drafts they're not a lot of fun, especially whether it's like uncertainty. But what do you as far as what you know about the Braves, Like what do you were you kind of looking, what do they do? What do they seem to value? Because you know the year before, to contrast, they went more prep heavy two years ago, Like so we're kind of the radar with the bread Rendo.

00:09:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like they're one of these teams that definitely has become a little bit more model heavy. Analytics have certainly become more of a factor over the years. But the fact that they're still willing to take profiles that they have a track record of developing at a pretty good level, I think above the industry norm. The fact that they're still willing to take some of these high school pitching profiles just makes them like, you can't. I don't lump them entirely in with like the Cleveland's or the Toronto's and Seattle's who seem to be or maybe Milwaukee who seem to be like super model heavy and super analytically friendly. So they're kind of this blended scouting department from my point of view. They're also picking in a range where really I think every demographic of the draft is going to be on the table and available. I think mostly college hitters will be the best players available for the Braves if they want to go high school pitching. I think there are a number of high school pitchers who make sense in the twenties. So far during this like mock draft process, and over the last few weeks, I've heard them mostly tied to college players, guys like Ryan Walshman, who I think we've had them mocked the last three months, and I try to really hammer this over and over again that like the fact that he has been there for three straight does not mean that I'm like ultra confident. It's just a name that I have heard them link to, and I've heard they like it, and he makes sense on talent, and so without like a better option to fit with them, I think he's just like a name in this range that I know or I've heard that they do like, so he kind of just is the pick. Other guys like Jorangelo Sinca, who's a switch pitcher from Mississippi State, Carson Bench who is an outfielder and right handed pitcher, which maybe I should just be finding two way players to tie to the Braves in the twenties because they've really taken that profile a lot. But both those guys, if they're available, I think they can make a lot of sense. But I feel like there's a reasonable odds that Booth those two are gone, even Waldschmidt might be gone before they pick it twenty four to twenty five. So it's really tough, like you said, and it's tough this year at fifteen to find like a realistic matches for teams just given the uncertainty. But for the Braves, like, yeah, I just mostly hear college names college players. I would like to see them draft the hitter personally, just as someone who still covers the system, just because there's not a lot of like locked in hitters you feel good about in this system. At the same time, they still keep pushing up pitchers and they've had some pitching injuries. And if you get a talent deal like a Hurston Waldrip, the fact that he signed an undersloid deal last year at that pick I thought was crazy good value. So it's really hard to eliminate anything entirely.

00:11:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is very obvious to most people, I think, But you don't draft for like need in the baseball draft, Like it's like, especially, nor do you like cross positions off because you have a guy in the majors either, It's like it's very different from NFL or NBA in that way you're kind of just taking best available.

00:12:07
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just I'm.

00:12:10
Speaker 1: Curious because you mentioned, you know, the system. I'm not gonna make you talk about a system a ton if you don't want to. But it's like it's not that it's not where it was a few years ago, and kind everybody knows that. But and at least the questions that we get all the time, like what are they gonna do with the draft, what are they gonna what are they trying to do with with with with the farm system in general, And it's like, well, they're just trying to add talent for the most part. And like you said, you mentioned they're they're not shy about pushing guys fast like they've been. They did it again this year, They're gonna do it again in the future, like they're not afraid to do. That doesn't mean that this guy, whoever they take, is gonna appear in the major suit. But Waldrop, Waldrop's already like been up there, like it's it's as great, it's great. It's crazy fast, even even as a college player, to get there as fast as he as. That is that a consideration is like, is that why they like college guys? Do they want to move fast? Like do you have any idea why they would? Kind of like what they value? Like what are they not value?

00:12:53
Speaker 2: I don't know.

00:12:53
Speaker 1: It's interesting to me that's they're kind of going with such fluid. It'd probably be easier for people like you if you kind of knew, if they're more obvious. But it's also kind of on brand for the Braves. They don't like to showcase what they're going to do in any possible way. They're very private, so it doesn't I'm much shocked what you say.

00:13:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, yeah, they I think that is like more of a maybe a player development philosophy with the Braves. There are some teams who really are trying to kind of baby their arms specifically and put these innings limits and pitch count limits and really try and help their pictures avoid injury by not over taxing them. It does seem like the Braves philosophy is like, no, we want our guys to throw, they need to get used to the volume they need to pitch a lot, and I think there's a lot of merit to that philosophy. Actually I don't. I don't really love the idea of like babing arms. Who've seen so many teams who have tried to do this with prominent prospects and it just doesn't work. So I'm much more of the like I like the idea of training volume in pitchers and getting the arm used to that volume. I think it's solid. Like you said, they're one of the more aggressive teams in pushing prospects that are not afraid to challenge them at upper levels of the miners and push them quickly. There are other teams like the Rays who seem to be a lot more conservative with how fast they put their prospects in general for the race, still have a really good attack record and player development in general. So I think that player development philosophy is interesting in terms of like what the Braves target in terms of pitch traits. I'm not sure that I have a great read on if they have anything really specific, Like I know teams like Cleveland really value vertical break fastballs, Teams like the Mariners really value like vertical approach angle with pitchers. They want really flat approach angle for the guys they're taking. They've actually been more willing to take on stinkers in the past. I don't know if there's like a specific pitch trait the Braves, like I see them taking a lot of I think they do a reasonable job of just taking whoever the best player available is and not kind of getting two in the weeds on like specific traits, which I think is probably a good thing.

00:14:50
Speaker 1: So I again not knowing anything that that generally applies what it would be what I want people to do, like I want them to take the best player available, kind of whatever the mix happens to be, especially that you know you're not picking one, you're picking twenty four to sixty two, Like there's you could be kind of a wide ranging with what you want.

00:15:06
Speaker 2: I know.

00:15:07
Speaker 1: I know Waldrip was like a dream for a lot of people that I talked to last year and they ended up getting him, and like you mentioned signing him under slot that that was like a great scenario that everybody was on board with. It's not always that, like there's not always consensus like excitement around every pick that you make. But maybe a little bit of spoiled there, given that everyone was really excited about him.

00:15:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's also just a good sign for the Braves too, because there are some organizations where pitchers specifically are not going to want to take deals. I think it's a credit to what Atlanta has done with their pitching development and just the fact that they're a competitive team at the major league level that players are willing to take a deal to go to them, because I don't imagine that that would have been the same deal that any team picking him in that spot would have gotten. I know for other teams like Colorado and Oakland specifically, like a lot of times that the acting prices may be higher than some of the other teams on either side. So it cernally health to have just established yourself as a solid team in all phases, and the Braves out put them in the upper tier of big league teams in general.

00:16:03
Speaker 3: So that's good.

00:16:04
Speaker 2: But yeah, in terms of terms of figuring out who they're going to draft this year, at anyone's guts.

00:16:09
Speaker 1: I can't imagine why a picture in particular would like what would like would not like to go to Colorado or Oakland right now? That'd be very surprising. Uh, I'll ask you this, what would surprise you with what they do? Like, is there like a not necessarily a player, but like, is there like a grouping you know of type of player that you would be surprised by or is it? Is it truly they're gonna be the best player available and there's really no read on them.

00:16:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I don't think anything would really surprise me. I mean there might be I like that.

00:16:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, there there might be some profiles that you could eliminate for the Braves, Like I'm just scanning through, like would they take on a picture like Roddy Brat at Iowa who has such huge strikes?

00:16:52
Speaker 1: I actually saw he was he was mocked there by something. Maybe it was ablely not somebody had him mocked to the Braves, Like, yeah, and I saw him.

00:16:58
Speaker 2: I'm just like, I haven't heard anything but simply on him in or out for Atlanta. But just looking at players who makes sense in this range, like a Hearson Waldrip was a better strike thrower than Bruddy Breck. But if you wanted to compare those two, I think you probably could and it wouldn't be crazy off base. So yeah, like looking at everyone who like all the demographics I have on our board, everyone in like this fifteen to forty range, I can't imagine them like entirely out on any of these profiles, like they haven't really taken and you can correct me if I'm wrong. I can't remember like a super huge strikeout question mark player they'd taken in the first round, Like would they go for Dakota Jordan. I imagine vance to Honecutt would be a different scenario if he slid all the way to twenty four, just given the profile, But that maybe is one.

00:17:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not really gonna sure then, Yeah, that makes sense. Extra kind of folds into this question that I was definitely gonna ask you. I'm sure that everybody has their favorite guys right in any class, whether it's you know you're doing your thoughts versus mock drafts is different too. People always to know that big boards versus mondrafts are different. Is there a guy that could reasonably fall to twenty four that's like one of your favorite players? Again, not reporting, not a Braves thing. Who would you like be in love with that could reasonably be there twenty four if you were the Braves?

00:18:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the two most exciting players that have a chance to fall into this range, and it would be maybe Vance Honeycutt and stever King. Like I think the Braids are probably just on the outside of their realistic floor. Like it would be really odd to see a team like the Dodgers pass on Vance honeycut given how they valued athleticism and tools. But honeycut I think the tool for tool is like one or two in terms of upside potential in this draft class. But it's almost like a Garrett Mitchell situation. We had him ranked number six and his back class he felt to about eighteen or so to the Brewers just because of some hit power injury questions. Honeycutt doesn't really have the same power questions that Mitchell had. He his access his power a lot, but it's a lot of swing and miss. As soon as he's taken top thirty, who will set the new like high for strikeout rate for college pitchers in the Bunch Spool era in this range and I'm assuming he's going to go just because the defense is great, speed is great. And then fever King at Wake fourth he was a Division two player, came to Wake. He has electric hands, in the box. He's a plus plus runner. He's played shortstop, centerfield, third base, second base, so he can play a bunch of premium positions. And I imagine whoever drafts and will start him at shortstop that it may be a separator for receiver King in this class, because they're not a ton of shortstops that you can look at and have confidence they'll stay at the position in this draft lass. And like, while both of their ranges I think start in the middle of the first round, there are enough players that are lumped into the same tier that wouldn't be shocking for either of them to slip down to Atlanta. I'd be curious. Like again, I haven't heard them tied to the Braves just because most people assume they're going to be off the board. But I think those would be the most exciting players who I think have a reasonable chance to get there. Probably.

00:19:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't want to put you in a bad spot every year, either, So it is what it is, you know. I I'm make sure to couch that that's not reporting, just that's hope. That's the hopeful slam dunk Grand Slam thing there. I just know that you know it's not the same as what you do. But everyone seems to have their guys that they like, even if it's well, yeah, I was gonna asking you, do you have a deep guy that you like, like even like a second third, running beyond guy.

00:20:18
Speaker 2: That you like. I have some really deep guys that I like. But this year, more than ever, it's been like, typically I have a player that I'm really high on. This year, for whatever reason, I haven't had a guy in this like day one range that I'm like, really.

00:20:31
Speaker 1: That's like you're opera litters, Like yeah, yeah, Like I.

00:20:34
Speaker 2: Had Kevin Ferrata a few years ago, who is my guy? Like when he was in high school, before he was the first rounder, he was good, Like I really do like and and maybe this is a player who like every team's going to have a chance for this guy. But to Marion Terrell is an outfielder out of Alabama. We've got him ranked as kind of like a third round talent. He's very raw as a hitter, but I love the tool set and he actually drew some Michael Harris comparisons early this spring that was kind of fascinating. I think he's more yical at the same time than Harris more likely to be a corner profile on the outfield than a centerfielder. But he has huge raw power, great bat speed, just really upside like athlete toolsy pick one of my favorite pitchers, and I actually have heard the Braves tied to this player specifically, so maybe this is probably the one I should have started with. But Levi Sterling, who we have ranked number fifty five overall, He's a high school pitcher out of California. I think he is like this perfect starter rates projection arm who has like a really clean delivery, can spin the ball well, there's a change up with conviction, some of the best strike throwing in the class. Like he has all the traits you love as a pitching prospect, but does not have the sort of now power now stuff, which I mean to me, I think is almost like beneficial for some of these guys. I kind of like the steady upwards velocity projection. It's got a great frame of sixty four one ninety. I imagine he's going to go at some point on Day one actually get overpaid in the second round, but that is a pitching process, and he's also younger for the Class two, so he just has a lot of traits that I think are really strong positive indicators, and there have been a number of teams that are linked to him, but the Braves are one of those. So if the Braves take him, just give him what he does now, how he pitches, that advanced feel for the game he has with the Braves track record of pitching development, I think that would be a really fun player team pairing. So that actually might be the best best option for that question.

00:22:28
Speaker 1: There you go, circle him. I'm gonna let you go. I have to ask this, though the Braves are at least they have the reputation of really liking guys that are local or close to local or semi local. Is there anybody in there in their like perspective range that might be interesting that's like a Georgia guy or a Georgia Ties guy. I know, obviously Condon is not going to be available, but because you know, also, is that an IRG reputation? Like I always wonder if that's actually a thing that's really so?

00:22:53
Speaker 2: It is, okay, I think it is. Like we've looked at teams, I think the Braves have taken more prospects out of Georgia and like the they like one and two range than any team. And I think again, like a lot of that is probably because there are a lot of kids who grew up in Georgia who are Braves.

00:23:08
Speaker 1: George is the hotbed anyway of all this all the Yeah, it's a hot bed.

00:23:11
Speaker 2: They have a great like they have this region locked down in terms of like fandom. So I would imagine there are a lot of players who just assign ability is more accessible for the Braves than other teams. And I think there is something to the fact that teams like to own their regions. Some teams care about this more than others. And the fact that the Braves are in, like you said, a hotbed, I think up stanty for them in that region. But one guyle name, I think it's actually a pretty down year for Georgia and Florida specifically if they have any of that kind of northern Florida territory as well. But Conrad Cason is a guy who is an obvious connection to the Braves. He is in Atlanta. He's a shortstop and ray handed pitchers who's got that two way factor. He's really athletic. I think most teams probably prefer him on the mound at this point. But he's got real tools as a position player, so he's one I would just kind of throw out there. Again, not a player that I've specific heard linked to the Braze, but given their track record, background player profiles they've liked, it would make sense to me if they were more in on him than maybe some other teams were, and we have him as like a top five round talent at this point.

00:24:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm sure everyone's all very especially all right, who's the guy that lives in the Atlanta area they can draft at some point in the first.

00:24:17
Speaker 2: Where where it's the park View High School product? Yeah, so kid Brown, maybe I'll throw him out there. You go to park View.

00:24:25
Speaker 1: We are we are growing in number anyway. Thanks for doing this, man, I appreciate I told you to keep it short. We're gonna do that. Would you like to plug anything? Obviously you don't need me to plug you, but you're for you. There's like going on over there Baseball America.

00:24:38
Speaker 2: So yeah, I just plugged Baseball America in general. That's for all my work is found and anyone who supports the site, whether you listen to our podcast or subscribe to the website, you really allow us to do what we do. So if you're if you're interested in this conversation, you're interested in BA in general. You've thought about taking the plunge in the past for the sub, but you haven't. This month is really as good as any. We've got updated top one hundred, updated top thirties for every team before the trade deadline happening. So if you want to know, like the most updated reports on prospects of the Braves may be trading for trading away, that might be useful for you. And then we've got a ton of draft stuff that's already on the site and we'll be coming over the next week. So I just plug BA in general.

00:25:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely would recommend subscribing to Baseball America. Fantastic stuff all year long, not just now. We should emphasize it's not just now, but it would be very helpful right now. I think if you had a Baseball America sub, if you're someone like media doesn't know anything, that's the way to learn, like do your crash course the last week is to check out. Yeah, that's a way to do that. I just trust Carlos. Whatever he tells me, I'm going to listen. To thank you for doing this, man H. I sincerely appreciate it.

00:25:38
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Thanks Bret my pleasure.

00:25:41
Speaker 1: Ask for everybody else, please subscribe to this show anywhere you might find podcasts, and we'll see you all next time.