Snakes Territory reacts to Zac Gallen re-signing with Diamondbacks

00:00:13
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of Snake's Territory, part of the Foults Territory Network. Be sure to like this video. If you're joining us on YouTube, subscribe to our channel, maybe leave us a five star review wherever you get your podcasts. I am Jesse Friedman alongside the one and only Jack Summers, and we do not go live often in the off season, Jack, but this felt fitting that we do this for this moment as the Diamondbacks they continue their trend of bringing back familiar faces. Zach Gallon is back on a one year, twenty two point zero two five million dollar deal, the exact same amount of money that he would have gotten if he accepted the qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks a few months back. Jack, your initial thoughts on this move for the d Backs?

00:01:02
Speaker 2: Baseball is a humbling sport, and first and foremost I feel humbled, because, you know, since whenever the beginning of the season, talking about Zach Gallon and his walk year and what's he going to get and what's going to be the value, and whether or not they'll get the qualifying offer after the rough start, and then whether or not they should give it to him, and then it became a foregune conclusion they would and then would he would the Dbacks get a high draft pick, And everything's come back full circle to essentially him getting the qualifying offer value in a in a in a contract. And I just nobody predicted things to go the way they went. And we're pretty well informed, and we're pretty insightful, you know, And we are I mean, I took pretty you know, and so it just shows how clueless we are. And of course humbling for Zach, right, I mean, you know, this has been had to have been a tough pill for him to swallow, that his market deteriorated to this degree and so on all things. Baseball is just a humbling sport. That's the primary thought that's going through my mind tonight.

00:02:10
Speaker 1: Yeah. I absolutely feel you there. Yeah, I mean this is somewhat surprising for us, there's certainly no question about that. But I think this is also surprising for Zach Gallen in his camp. I mean, you don't reject the qualifying offer in November if you think this is the way that things are going to end up. There are deferrals in this contract we'll get into at a little bit more. The net present value in all those details. But there are deferrals in this deal, which means even though the sticker price is twenty two point zero two five the exact same numbers that qualifying offer, it's actually it's actually less money when you consider the time value of money. Zach Gallen would have been better off financially if he had just accepted the qualifying offer several months ago. And I remember down the stretch, Jack, when Zach really started to pitch well, he finished the season strong. As we discussed down the stretch, I thought he was gonna do all right in free agency. I really did. I mean, I didn't think it was going to be one hundred plus million. But you know, for a guy who has the track record that Zach Gallen has is not all that far removed from being one of the better pitchers in baseball and finishing the season strong at thirty years old, you figure there was going to be a team that was going to be willing to go out and take a chance on him, give him, you know, not a seven year deal, but maybe a three or four year deal, and give him a decent chunk of change. And as we saw over the course of the offseason, it just felt like no team was willing to do that. And I think you and I see where those teams are coming from. I mean, again, I did not expect it to come to this, But if you're really hesitant to give Zack Gallen a four year, five year contract, whatever it was, I see where you're coming from. I mean, the trend has been in the wrong direction for the past couple of years. You look at his numbers since he started the All Star Game in twenty twenty three, not all that long ago. He's basically been a league average pitcher ever since then, and it just feels like teams are not really buying in to him returning to form at some point in the future.

00:04:20
Speaker 2: It's notable, I guess. John Hammond reported that there were multi year offers out there that he rejected, or at least a multi year offer he rejected in order to take this deal. I think a little bit about the comments he made out of the golf tournament. You know, he's recently married. His wife is from Arizona, and you know that very much. You know, personal stuff can play a big role here. I mean, if you decide you just want to do a one year deal and try the market again next year, unencumbered by that qualifying offer, you may as well stay where you're comfortable. And you know, for Zach clearly, you know he said over and over this is home. Now you know his wife from here. I'm sure that goinging forward, he's probably going to be making his offseason home here, regardless of who he pitches for. So you know, all those things factor in is like, Okay, well screwed. If I'm going to do a one year deal, I'm definitely going back to Arizona. At one point I thought, well, if he's only going to do a one year deal, if there was a team out there that maybe appeared to be in a better position to compete for the postseason, that might be an enticement away from here. But ultimately, you know, he probably has confidence that this team will do better, especially with him on it, and I'm sure he believes in himself and he's betting on himself. That's what athletes do.

00:05:36
Speaker 1: Part of the narrative that is compelling to me is like Zach Gallen's career has been trending in the wrong direction the past couple of years, as we said, but this deal, to me, says Zach Gallen does not think the Dbacks are at fault for that, Like he does not view this organization as being, you know, some kind of place where pitchers just can't succeed. If you did think that this Diamondbacks organization was a place where pitchers were not in good position to succeed, like there would be evidence for that. I mean, this organization from a pitching standpoint, has really struggled for the past couple of years, and I would understand if somebody felt that way, but clearly that's not where Zach Gollans stands. He would not have returned to this team and you know, continued to say all the positive things about his time in the organization if that's how he really felt. So it's fascinating to me that it's come to this. I mean, once again, like if you told me at the beginning of the off season that Zach Gallen and Merrill Kelly were both coming back to the Diamondbacks, I would have thought you were crazy. But here we are. I Mean, we've said it before with Ken Kendrick Jack, Like, these are the moments that Ken Kendrick lives for. When when a player's market falls, when there's a unique opportunity he is, He's willing to spend a little bit more money, And you could make the case like, maybe it'd be nice if ken Kendrick would open up the wallet a little more on the front end. Maybe maybe, as you've said before, like you'd rather have allocated this money in a different way. But at the very least you have to respect that Ken Kendrick is opportunistic and he's shown that separal off seasons in a row.

00:07:17
Speaker 2: Now. Yeah, you know, it's funny. I've been One other thought I was having is like I wonder how this offseason would have played out had Zach just accepted the offer right up front, Yeah, you know, and whether or not that would have precluded them at that point from bringing back Meryl, or if they still would have done it anyway.

00:07:36
Speaker 1: You know, I think it would have. Honestly, I think it would have.

00:07:41
Speaker 2: I mean it just a lot of questions there about how all that would have played out. But you know, this came down to the wire. You know. I guess as we move into the contract portion of the discussion, we can kind of get into some of the nuts and bolts here. That'll probably help us get into a little more clarity as to why this may have happened in the sequence that.

00:08:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's one year, twenty two point zero two five million dollar deals twenty two point zero two five million dollar deal. We don't know the exact nature of the deferrals. There's some conflicting reports out there. As of right now, it seems most reporters are talking about Gallon receiving two point eight million dollars. I know this is what Gambo has said. It's two point eight million dollars per year from year six to year ten, so starting starting paid out in year six and then through year ten, and then the other portion of the money is just up front, so it's fourteen million deferred then and then the rest of the money is paid out as normal. At least that's what we think this contract is. So we certainly talked Jack about the dbacks needing to get creative in order to make this happen. You don't often see deferrals on a one year contract, especially not to this degree. And that's why I thought this wasn't going to happen. But apparently Zach Gallon was willing to take a bit of a take a bit of a hit coming back to the d Backs. As you said before, he had multiple he had offers for you know, multi year deals from other teams that he chose to turn down and take what is really a bizarre contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

00:09:20
Speaker 2: Right, So keep in mind with deferrals, the amount deferred has to be deposited in the escrow account by July one of twenty twenty seven. Okay, So a lot of people forget that with deferrals, it's not like they get to hold on in the money and let it burn a hole in their pocket or whatever investments they're in. They have to put it. I mean, those accounts are in interest. But there's rules around what kind of accountcilos can be. They have to be pretty conservative accounts. There can be much risk to them. And so you know, if the dbacs are deferring fourteen million out of twenty twenty six, now fourteen million has got to be deposited in the bank or in the escrow account by July one of twenty twenty seven, and then however, many years out and however, the money is then doled out two point eight million per year over five year period starting I guess in twenty thirty one or whatever it is. You know, then that's that's where they'll decrease the net present value. I think you did see a few different numbers out there of what the net present value of this is, but it's probably going to be what eighteen eighteen and a half million jesse. Is that correct?

00:10:31
Speaker 1: That's that's what I estimated it to be. We also got this tweet from John Becker, who does great work at Fangrafts working on their roster resource stuff that we reference all the time. He estimated just under eighteen point seventy five million dollars for luxury tax purposes. So that sounds that sounds pretty reasonable to me, somewhere in the you know, four to five million dollar range under the sticker price of twenty.

00:10:57
Speaker 2: Two listeners of our last well, remember we kind of joked a little bit about Chris Bassett money, yes, because see Chris Bassett, the thirty seven year old signed for just over eighteen million, and you know, we were wondering, like, does the age factor for Bassett offset the qualifying offer factor for Zach Gallon and the apparently it did because net present value they got the same deal they effectedly.

00:11:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, assuming that that's right, I know Gambo tweeted out a different number, and Nate Cleveland is mentioning fourteen million deferred over three years in the chat. I know that's what Bob Nightingale reported. So there's some conflicting reports out there. We'll see, we'll see where the where the dust ultimately settles with this. But in terms of Zach Gallon the pitcher, Jack, I think if you're a Diamondbacks fan who is disappointed by this after the season, Gallan just had like, I see where you're coming from. To an extent, I mean a four eight three RAS, a four eight three RAS, Zach Gallan not have a good season in twenty twenty five. But if you think that Zach Gallen is a four eight three er caliber pitcher moving forward, I think there's a pretty good chance you're going to be pleasantly surprised. Like the underlying numbers, we have the XCRA, the FIP, the x FIP on the screen here, not that those numbers are the end all be all, but across the board, Zach Gallen's underlying metrics suggested he's a better pitcher than a four point eight three er. On the other hand, if you're looking at this and you're expecting Zach Gallen to return to form and to go out and have a three to three er or something like that. I don't think that's impossible. I mean, I acknowledge the upside is there, given Zach Gallen's history, but I think if if that's your mindset, I think you're probably likely to be disappointed. As is as is often the case, and I know it's maybe boring to have this take, but as is often the case in baseball, like the truth probably lies somewhere in between. Zach Gallen is kind of hovered around a low four er if you look at at much larger samples going back the past few years, and that's kind of my baseline expectation. And is that super exciting. It's not. But I also at the same time would say the Diamondbacks are better. They're a better team with Zach Gallen, even if he is a low four er pitcher. I mean, we know what the pitching for this team was like in twenty twenty five. You never can have too much starting pitching, and you certainly cannot given where this Diamondbacks team has been recently.

00:13:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, so looking at the projections, if you go over to fangraphs, you can see Zips has a projection of three point eight one era, Steamer has a projection of four point two two. It's a pretty big gap there. So their fangraphs depth chart, which averages those two comes in at four point zero two and at one hundred and ninety one innings, that's a two point four war pitcher according to fangraphs. Some of the other projections atc is at four point one eight is a four two three, and the bat X is four point one four. So I think there's fairly large consensus in the projections world that he's looking at, you know, a low for his er. That's that's how he projects. Now, remember, projections are not predictions, right, it's just how it lines out on paper. I mean, I'm sure as heck didn't project him to have a four eight three RA and his projections were for the high threes, you know. Coming into twenty twenty six, I think he was projected for like a three eight something era and a lot of people saw those projections and said, no way, he's going to be that high. But you know, as it turned out, he was a full run worse than his projections. So again, humbling, right. We can't predict anything. All we can do is project and analyze and kind of take a look at it once. Mileage may vary how much value there is in that. I like to look at the projections and study them simply so I have a baseline of expectation, but I'm always fully cognizant that they're not a prediction. I don't expect guys to come in on that number on the nose or anything close to it, so you know what they get. Who knows, maybe Zach bounces back, maybe he figures out some things, and you know, he drops in under three point five. You never know what's going to happen in this wonderful game of ours.

00:15:26
Speaker 1: Just to dig a little deeper on kind of what has happened with Zach the past few years, I don't know if I would say the stuff is way different than it was a few years ago when he was at his peak. But as we look at the stuff plus numbers here from Fangrafts, just to get kind of a rough idea. Again, these numbers are not the end all be all, we acknowledge that, but you can see his overall stuff plus kind of near the far right side of the screen here. In twenty twenty it was one oh six, with one hundred being league average, so one o six. I know it doesn't seem huge, but that's a pretty impressive number for a pitcher starting pitcher's overall stuff plus In twenty twenty one, it was similar at one oh two. In twenty twenty two, the best season that we've ever seen Zach Gallon have it was one oh five, and then the past three years ninety eight in twenty twenty three, so it dropped off there, although he was still he was still effective, kind of wasn't as good in the second half in twenty twenty three, but was still was still quite good for the Diamondbacks overall. And then in twenty twenty four stuff plus was ninety two, and in twenty five pretty similar at ninety three, So both of those numbers coming in a little bit below average. So it's it's not a huge drop off, Jack, but there has been a drop off, and I think the two key pitches that stand out you can see the fastball stuff plus numbers on the far left of the screen that has dropped into the below average range the past couple years. And then I'm closer to the far right side of the screen you could see the knuckle curve stuff plus numbers ninety and ninety one. At the past couple of seasons, those members have dropped off fairly significantly as well. So you know, again, these numbers are not the end all be all. It's not like there's a huge difference in stuff from Gallon a few years ago. It's not like he was throwing ninety seven miles an hour. From a velo standpoint, He's held relatively steady, but it's just been a little regression with the fastball, a little regression with the curveball. The command I think has also been a part of this, Especially in twenty twenty five, it felt like he just hung a curveball at the wrong like at the worst moment in the game a few too many times led to some three run homers that really inflated his ra. So it's not a huge drop off, Jack, but there's under the hood you can see that Zach Gallen is not the pitcher that he was a few years ago.

00:17:47
Speaker 2: I've just wanted to acknowledge some of the good folk that are making some comments and asking some questions at Joe grap a grap is that conection with all the new defense pieces, no idea how they factor that stuff. That's a great question. I thought that was interesting. So they do have defense projections for each player's defense is projected, and that goes into their war projection, but I'm not sure exactly how fine tuned and how quickly they catch up now Zach's Zach's projections that I just read off certainly do not account for Nolan Arnatto playing third and Carlo Santana playing first because they haven't updated it yet. Now. I also don't know what stadium they're pegging him to, probably Chase Field, so once the deal is official and Fangrass updates, those might change a little bit. So if you're curious about that, what I would suggest is go to his Fangrass page, screenshot the projections portion, and then circle back in a few days and see if they changed it all. They may not, but that's a really great question, and I was wondering about that as well, whether or not, you know, the improved infield defense should help him. We'll see how much improved it ultimately is once the season gets underway.

00:19:14
Speaker 1: Ryan referenced your your Twitter poll, Jack on who the opening day's starter will be, so maybe we hit that topic real quick. You put this out about an hour ago. Who will be the Diamondbacks opening day starter? The option Zach Gallon, Mary Kelly, or someone else. This is fascinating to me. Thirty seven point nine percent said Zach Gallen, fifty six point one percent Mary Kelly, and then six point one percent someone else. I slightly leaned toward Mary Kelly here because even though Zach Gallen has kind of been the guy over Mary Kelly for most of their Diamondbacks tenure. I think the d Backs also are looking at numbers from twenty twenty five and like, are they going to start a Guyn opening day who just had an ERA almost of almost five.

00:20:05
Speaker 2: I don't.

00:20:06
Speaker 1: My guess is they won't. My guess is they'll start Meryll Kelly on opening day. Of course, there's a case for Ryan Nelson too. I don't think it's gonna be Ryan Nelson, though, it's probably one of these two guys. And I think I leaned toward Meryll Kelly.

00:20:19
Speaker 2: Yeah. By the way, the polls updated, We're up to three hundred and sixty seven votes since fifty Meryll thirty eight point four percent Sack and six point five percent someone else.

00:20:31
Speaker 1: So so get in on the poll, everybody, let us let us know what you think, or just tell us in the chat. That works too. We're curious, what what do you think?

00:20:39
Speaker 2: Jack? I think he'll they'll go with Meryl, but it's impossible to say. I mean, who knows. With Tory and some of the ways he does some of this stuff. I defend him a lot, but that was pretty annoying last year. He did that whole thing with Burns and Gallon and so hopefully you know, he won't put himself and everybody else through it or nonsense this year, and look to look to the early you know, set up and we'll start counting the days. I don't know if this deal is going to be official by tomorrow. I mean it's pending physical. Tomorrow's Saturday. We may have to wait until Monday or something for this to be official. It would be nice if it was official before Sunday, because you know, the Sunday's full squad workouts and we're all going to be out there Sunday, so you know, we'll get to talk to to Mike and Tory and kind of figure out what's going on. Hopefully Zach's going to be in there. Our good friend Alex Weiner said, come to think of it, there was an empty locker in the locker room, so that's that's good stuff. And so, you know, well, we'll see how how long this takes. They still haven't made the Paul Seawald signing official, so you know, we'll we'll just have to see how quickly the doctors can work through this. I think the team is probably going to push to get it done because I think that they're going to want everybody out there.

00:22:02
Speaker 1: I mean, we were talking about it earlier this week, Jack that we thought Zach Gallon would sign soon, and that we thought he should sign soon because the last thing he needs is to be delayed in spring training. We've seen that really not work out well for some pictures in recent years. So I don't know if that has anything any impact on the urgency when it comes to the physical and everything. But yeah, you figure that dbacks probably want to probably want to get that done as soon as possible.

00:22:28
Speaker 2: You know, now that I'm thinking about it, this probably gives Tory his out right because the other guys have already thrown you know, plenty of bullpens. I think Merrill's already thrown two two bullpens, you know, since camp opened officially opened. So you know, although Zac has probably been throwing on the side, you know, probably gives Tory some cover to be able to like push him down to fourth or fifth starter to start the season because he's getting in a little late.

00:22:57
Speaker 1: That's fair, Yeah, like that.

00:23:00
Speaker 2: Kind of well, you know, he's a little bit behind, so you know, he's got a little Tory's probably got a little cover.

00:23:04
Speaker 1: Here from a pr standpoint, I'm sure, yeah, that would be that would be nice for him. Well, of course, there are other angles to get into here as well. We referenced Ryan Nelson earlier, and I think we should have the conversation of is Ryan Nelson gonna wind up in the bullpen again? I don't think so. I don't think that's a serious concern that people should have, but somebody theoretically could could wind up in the bullpen, and we definitely will we'll touch on that before we get there, though. We would really appreciate it if all of you who are here in the chat with us, which there's almost one hundred of you, we really appreciate you all hopping in here late on a Friday night being with us. But if all of you would consider hitting that like button for us, that really does does us a huge favor. We'd really appreciate that. And as I said from the top of the show, be sure to subscribe to the channel, hit the bell icon for notifications so you never miss an episode. As well, if you're listening after the fact on an audio only platform, we'd really appreciate it if you would leave us a five star review there as well. So thank you in advance to all of you for doing those things. And now Jack, we'll dive into the inevitable question of who gets bumped from the starting rotation if anyone. I guess the rooster in the chat just floated the idea of a six man rotation. I don't expect that that will be the case, but I guess it is possible. But of course there are six guys that we have here. Jack, it's basically the same five as last year with Gallen, Kelly, e Rod Fott, Nelson, and then plus Michael Soroka, who was the first move the Diamondbacks made this offseason several months back. Certainly sounded like they wanted to use him in the starting rotation. But at least my starting point in this conversation Jack is if everyone stays healthy through spring training, which I will say is a big if. I don't know if that is a given, but if everyone stays healthy through spring train, it feels like Michael Soroka is probably had to be the bullpen in a swingman swingman sort of role.

00:25:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, unless they decide they want Ryan Nelson to be the closer.

00:25:11
Speaker 1: That would be something. I mean, They're not really gonna do that though, right I have trust. I mean, there's there's a case that, like I think Ryan Nelson could be a pretty good closer. I mean, the Diamondbacks before the Corbyn Burns injury, like they were ready to move him into the bullpen, and I don't know if they were gonna have him closed immediately, but I think he could have grown into that role. But even if Ryan Nelson could be a good closer, and for as much as the Diamondbacks need that, I still maintain that. I mean, if a guy can give you a three five ERA for thirty starts, like you would rather have that than a good closer. Even if Ryan Nelson could be could be good in that role as well.

00:25:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, look Mike has said over and over again, and Jesse and I were talking about this as I was driving home. You know, although last year, basically they went into the season with their top six guys all intact. We won't include Jordan Montgomery in the top six. I think he was seventh or eighth anyway, and was slated to be traded had he gotten through spring training healthy. For whatever financial relief they could have gotten. Jordan Montgomery wasn't going to be a diamondback even if he was fully healthy. He wasn't definitely not going to be in the rotation. Anything you heard otherwise was just to keep leverage so that they could, you know, maybe get a decent trade. So, you know, they ended up going with Ryan Nelson to the bullpen last year. After all, they had just extended Brandon Fought and everybody else was getting paid a lot more and there was nobody else to move. So as much as I hated and didn't like that at all, I understood why that happened. This situation is a little bit different. I mean, obviously, you know, look when they signed Michael Soroka, they signed him to be a starting pitcher. The incentives in his deal are tied to you know, I think starts and innings or whatever, and so he's not going to get there. You know, if he's pitching out the bullpen, he's not going to earn those incentives. So he's not going to be a happy camper if he's the one cent to the bullpen. But it certainly seems logical that he would be the one sent I know a lot of people are enamored with the six man rotation idea, but that's not going to happen. We talked about this a lot last year with Mike. You know, the combination of off days sometimes, you know, it's not like with a six man rotation doesn't mean that guys are automatically on you know, five days rest instead of four and all of that. It can turn out to be six or seven or even sometimes eight days. If you ever actually take a spreadsheet and the schedule and try to work out a six man rotation where you don't skip anybody, it gets really messy and pretty quick. So you know, they're not going to do a six man rotation. They don't want to take these guys out of their routines and The only time they'll quote unquote have a six man rotation is sometimes midseason, when guys are tired and everybody needs a few extra days. Sure, they'll insert somebody in there and say, yeah, we're going with a six man rotation, and then two weeks later there's no such thing. So you know, just it's not gonna happen. There's no six man rotation in the only way you're going to have a six man rotation in MLB at this point is if teams just say, all right, screw it. You know, starting pitchers go three four innings and it's to the bullpen.

00:28:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, we may say, sorry to interrupt, I will say just just real quick that there are certain guys where, if you sign them from Japan, I think teams maybe feel more comfortable with a six man rotation just to give those guys the extra day that they're used to. We've seen that at times. But yeah, by and large, I totally agree with you. It's just not something we see in baseball, and it's particularly not something we've really ever seen the Diamondbacks do you know, maybe one or two turns through the rotation at times, but it's not something that we really see the Diamondbacks do ever beyond that.

00:29:07
Speaker 2: And I mean they flat out said that they wouldn't. You know, they looked into it, they studied it last year, and they had plenty of good reason to do so, you know, considering all that, almost everybody, the top six guys got through spring training healthy and they didn't do it. So if they weren't going to do it, then they're not going to do it now.

00:29:25
Speaker 1: I in general, when it comes to the question of who gets bumped, and I recognize that Ryan Nelson has been the odd man out a couple of times now, and it's hard for people to forget that. I acknowledge that, But I think in general it is true. We say it so often, but it is true that you can never have too much starting pitching, particularly with this Diamondbacks team that's really struggled in that area. And it's just not a question while well, I don't know exactly how it will work out, it's not a question that I would be overly worried about if I was a Diamondbacks fan. I mean, if if they have six darting pitchers who are healthy and effective at the same time, like I mean, that's like a thought that's very hard to imagine. Frankly, I mean, with the struggles that Brandon Fott had last year, with the struggles that Wardo Rodriguez has had, you know, the injuries that some of these guys have had, Merrill Kelly aging, Edwardo Rodriguez aging a little bit, with an injury track record. We've talked about Michael Soroka and his injury track record, like, I don't think you're getting two hundred innings from him this year. And I know Corbyn Burns is another factor in this, like you expect to get him back later in the year. But I just wouldn't be worried if I was a fan of this team about like, oh no, now we have too many starting pitchers. It just does not tend to be a real issue. These these things have a way of working themselves out. And as much as I hate to say it, I mean it could be as simple as someone goes down in spring training. You hate to see that, You certainly would hate to see that happen, but you know, you look at the past several years of spring training, like last year, Jordan Montgomery goes down. The year before, Merril Kelly and e Rod go down, Like, we've been doing this long enough to know it's not all that likely to make it through spring training with all your guys, and if somehow you do, like that's great and you'll kind of figure it out from there.

00:31:17
Speaker 2: For sure. Hey, by the way, Ryan, don't feel bad I missed at Rinjifo signed with the Brewers as well.

00:31:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, apparently that is a thing which I don't really understand what the Brewers are doing with the Caleb Durbin trade. I mean, I don't really ever understand what the Brewers are doing, and yet they win ninety games a year after year. So I'm sort of done. I'm sort of done questioning them at this point. Although yeah, I didn't really understand the Luis rang GIFA move. But one other thought on this Gallon situation, Jack, is it time to just like stop having payroll conversations at the beginning of the off season, because it feels like, I mean, I know this move when you factor in the deferrals, it's not like the Dbacks are going forty million over what we expected them to spend or anything like that. But I still think we're probably we're probably above the range that we thought this team would end up in or at least I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong with that, Jack, Do you think it's fair to say that at this point that it's that their payroll is a little higher than we thought it would be after this move.

00:32:24
Speaker 2: Oh, sure, it's a little higher. I mean, look, you know there was always a well maybe they only cut it ten million. There was that, you know, what's reducing payroll? Mean, you know, and in this case they've cut it about ten million at the end of the day. I mean, it depends on how you want to count it, right, are you counting eight million he's getting this year or are you counting all twenty two? Like when I do my charts, even though we have ten million deferred out from corbyn Burns contract, I show the thirty one point seven. So you know, it just really depends on how you want to line it out. I think we still need to track it. I think it's still relevant. We just need to always understand that come the end of the off season, can made, you know, write an extra check that we just didn't see coming. He's consistently done that, and again we go back to that conversation like why not just do that at the beginning, so that Mike has a little bit clearer picture of how he can best allocate his resources. You know, I don't know where he was at this year. I do know that, you know, last year, had they not signed Corbyn Burns, he was probably going to sign a fairly expensive reliever. That that's that was my understanding, you know, That's what I the scuttle butt that I heard from within. I don't know which one, probably one of the ones that got.

00:33:45
Speaker 1: Hurt, but you know, or was just terrible one one of the two.

00:33:50
Speaker 2: You know, I think he was going to invest in a higher ticket reliever last year, and then the Corbyn Burns signing came came to fruition, and so that went by the wayside. You know, I don't know if again we go back to sequences, right, you know, if you look at the sequence of events here, I don't think any of it was predictable. If Zach had accepted the qualifying offer right out of the gate, things would have looked different, for.

00:34:16
Speaker 1: Sure, on that note of the sequence of events. And I know we talked about Ken Kendrick earlier and you know, kind of tip of the cap to him in a situation like this, is the DBACS kind of surprised some people. Yet again, there is this element that we referenced earlier of you know, could Ken Kendrick maybe come out at the beginning of the off season and instead of waiting for situations like this where a player's market falls there's some special circumstance. You know what if he kind of changed his approach and was a little more aggressive on the front end and gave Mike Caysen a little bit more money to spend. I mean, again, I don't want to be like critical of Ken Kendrick in a situation like this, but you could at least imagine a world where he he shifts and operates that way instead. And I guess I'm curious, Jack, like, could the Diamondbacks be a much better team in that world? Like if they knew they had this money from the beginning, could they have played their pieces in a different way to wind up with a much better roster. I don't know if I would say a much better roster, But maybe there's a world where you actually get a closer and you know, you feel a little better about your your bullpen situation.

00:35:32
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm absolutely Look, if you know what you have to spend. I mean, you know, when it comes to financial and resource allocation, the more accurate information you have upfront, the better job you're going to be able to do. It just goes without saying, Yeah, I'm sure that Mike would prefer that, But at the same time, he's not going to complain about it because at the end of the day, Ken has spent enough money to put a winning team on the field.

00:35:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, And Mike Kyson has said that year after year after year. He's never really been one to, you know, talk about payroll publicly as a limitation, which, granted, from a pr standpoint, like you can't really do that as a GM, you know, you can't really put your your owner on blast even if you wanted to. But I genuinely think that's like where Mike Kyson stands is the Diamondbacks. They're not spending as much as other teams, certainly not the Dodgers, which have been a big topic around the game here in recent days. But yeah, they're I mean, they're spending, They're they're holding their own when it comes to to spending and you know, being able to put a decent product on the field.

00:36:38
Speaker 2: Yeah. So last year, you know, I had them about one hundred and ninety five give or take opening day, and they were at one hundred and seventy two as of just a little bit ago, and then they signed Paul Seawald, bring up to about one hundred and seventy three, you know, just to give or take. So if you just take the eight million that Zack skidding this year, then that's that's one hundred and eighty one. If you want to count the full net present value of eighteen, then it's right up around on one ninety one ninety one, so just barely under last year. So just depends on how you want to count it. You know, they're the ones that said that they were going to spend less, and you know, they looks like they spent a little bit less, but at most they reduced it only about ten million, and they're not done yet.

00:37:29
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was just going to say, we got a tweet from Gambo earlier today. Is a great, great segue. A tweet from Gambo earlier today that said the Diamondbacks are working towards adding a utility player to replace recently traded Blaze Alexander, with that player most likely coming via trade and using minor league depth, and we you and I think have been following Gambo's reporting long enough to know that when he speaks in these terms, it you feel very confident, something like I feel quite confident something is going to happen when Gambo uses, you know, using their their minor league depth. It was maybe a little easier earlier to figure out who the d Backs were going to trade. We sort of were able to do that with Blaize Alexander compared to Tim Tawa or Jordan Lawler. We had a sense they had some depth when it came to utility players, and so it felt like Blaze Alexander was the trade candidate that made the most sense there. But here Gambo is a little more vague in just his minor league depth. So my guess, if I had to guess, was they're maybe willing to trade a pitcher. Not that the d Bacs have an excess of starting pitching, certainly not, but you feel a little better about your starting pitching depth after getting Zach Gallen, and they do have more depth of young starters who are relatively close to the majors than they've had before. And not that you ever really want to deal with those guys, but you got to give something to get something, and you can talk yourself into that being an area of depth that they could trade from.

00:39:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, if you look in spring training camp, I mean, how many guys are there that are legit possibilities to play shortstop behind Heraldo Padomo Because you have to have a guy that's at least capable of playing a few games here and there. I mean Podomo, Yeah, you played one hundred and sixty one games. Say you can't count on that every year, and they really shouldn't grind him into the ground quite that hard in my opinion. So you know, you have Jordan Lawler can play shortstop, and you have Eldemar Vargus, who's not even on the forty man roster play shortstop. I mean a few other guys, a couple other NRIs non roster invitees that can play a little shortstop too. But I would have to think that if they're trading for a utility player, it's got to be somebody that they feel confident can play back up shortstop. I mean, if it's not, then the and I guess it's just Jordan is the guy, you know to back up Pedomo and which case, Like, so are we really concentrating on putting him in center field? Like it just seems like another recipe for confusion and not putting Jordan in the best situation to succeed. So I don't really want to see that. Like, I think that if they want Jordan Lawler to play in the outfield, then make him an outfielder. Let him focus on that. I know that they're going to split some time on the dirt in spring training, but they said most of his time would be in the outfield. Of course, if he needs to step into the infield in an emergency situation, but he should not be the primary backup shortstop if they want him to play center field, I mean, give the guy a chance. Yeah, stop scrolling with him.

00:40:50
Speaker 1: That's a fair point. I hadn't really thought of it that way. I kind of figured, like, hey, Perdomo can start ninety five percent of games, and if you need someone to just step in every once in a while, Jordan Lawler could do it if he had to. But you're right, like, if you're really wanting to invest in Jordan Lawler as an outfielder and make his life as simple as possible, there's a case to be made that you should just kind of forget the shortstop thing and make it more of an emergency situation than anything else, and go find you someone else can who can play that position. It's hard for me to know. The rooster says, please don't trade Daniel Egan. My guess is this wouldn't the d Bacs wouldn't go there. Again. Gambo used the phrase minor league depth, which, yeah, I guess. I don't know if that means like guys who are right on the verge of the majors, or maybe he's talking about depth that at like the lower levels of the miners. So yeah, I would be pretty surprised if they traded a pitching prospect the caliber of Egan. But the they have a number of guys, including the guys they got in the Merrill Kelly trade in in July, that you know they have. They have some guys in that camp who are who are close and that would have some value for other teams that that they could they could maybe deal away.

00:42:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Alex down here at the bottom of the chat, No, Tommy Troy is not an option shortstop.

00:42:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, not anymore. It doesn't seem like they've been really into that for for a little while now. Yeah, I guess another another storyline that that came out today. Jack Gambo tweeted about Lordis Guriel Junior and the fact that he could spend significant time at d H, which is something I hadn't I hadn't thought about too much, which I mean, it makes sense, right, you're coming off a pretty significant injury with with the a c L. Maybe you want to just not have him be on his feet all that often. And the DBAC certainly at d H, I mean, they have they have questions there, right, We've we've kind of made the assumption that Peven Smith maybe would would get some time at at d H. Adrian Delcasto's well, but certainly when it comes to facing left handed pitching, Lordis Garyel Junior could could totally slide in a DH. He's hit left these pretty well throughout his career, and even in twenty twenty five as well, he had left these. He had left these pretty well, even though it was kind of a kind of a down season for him.

00:43:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's funny. As you were talking, I popped open my spreadsheet that I haven't gone back to for a few weeks because I need to update it, obviously, but I kind of track where I think the playing time is going to shake out. And I originally had lordis starting about eighty seven games, actually getting starts in the eighties. That doesn't include pinch hit opportunities and so forth like that. So, you know, based on the fact that he looks to be coming back earlier than I had projected, I mean, I figured he would be out the first two months of the season and come back in June, you know, and things seem to be trending for a mid or late April return. I mean, you know, he's like, I'm going to be ready opening day and Tori's like, you know, hold the phone here, guys know that's not going to happen. But you know, maybe he's back by May one the way things are trending for him. We'll see. But I had eighteen games at d H amongst his eighty seven started, so I was already thinking that, you know, a not insignificant number of starts for him would be at d AH. Now, based on what Gambo's saying, you know, it seems like that would be more of like an early on situation like the first month, three or four times a week, he's going to DH and then eventually transition to the outfield. So you know, the next time I do my playing time projection, I'll probably bump orders up to one hundred hundred and ten games started, and I'll probably put thirty of those games at Dhe I think he's still going to play outfield, but they'll they'll be in a position to slow play it if they need to.

00:44:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. Here, here's a random question for a jack, and then at some point we'll end this stream and get out of here. But you mentioned earlier that Chris Bassett got basically the same contract as Zach Gallen. Right, Gallen is one and a little over twenty two, but with the deferrals, it's basically one in around eighteen we think, and Bassett got one in eighteen with with some incentives which I think could bring it up to eighteen point five something like that. So basically the same contract. Would you rather have Chris Bassett than bring back Zach Gallen? Chris Bassett again the last few years has been sin I accidentally make Jack smaller on the screen. This is the wonderful world of technology. All Right, there we go. Jack is back to back to normal size. All right. As I was saying, Chris Bassett has been kind of the model of consistency the past few years. He had a much better twenty twenty five season than Gallon, with a three nine six ERA four one six the year before and one hundred and seventy one innings three six zero ERA in twenty twenty three in two innings. Uh So, Jack, what do you what do you think would you have preferred the DBAC spend basically the same money on Chris Bassett instead.

00:46:10
Speaker 2: I mean, that's an interesting question. I don't have an answer for that at the moment because fancrasts won't come up. I wanted to look at his projection. I was just curious what it came up to. I mean, you know, he look he looked pretty good in the postseason. You know, sometimes he looked pretty pretty DWN effective And you know it was up and down with Zach last year, right, so familiar reality sometimes for his contempt And I hate to use those words, but the point being is, you know, when a guy's going great, we tend to overrate them. He's our guy. When a guy's struggling. We tend to underrate them. He stinks. Get him out of here. You know, everybody kind of has that a little bit of that going on. The one thing, you know, I just want to reiterate, and we talked about this at the end of last season, is Zach that's a stand up guy, right Like, you know, he's been a good teammate, he's been a good Arizona diamondback. And every time we went to his locker and talked to him, he never ducked a question. You know, he never like he talks about what's going on, but he's not making excuses. He took ownership when he didn't go well, that speaks for a lot. You know. They know the character of the man, and so I think that that counts for something here. I don't know anything about Chris Bassett. I do know the character of Zach, and so in this case, I think it's probably the right move for them to just bring him back. And I think that they got a good chance of getting a really effective season out of him. He's certainly going to be motivated, you know, to go get his bag next year. And you know, with the comfort level of being in an organization he knows, and the stadium he knows with pardon me, with fans he knows, you know, and with his wife and family here, I think a lot of things line up well for him, So, you know, best for luck to him. You know, it would be great if he has just a kick ass season and pitches the Dbacks back into the postseason. You know, nobody wants to see that more than us. And again, I just Zack's been a good guy and so I think we all need to acknowledge that.

00:48:19
Speaker 1: I think for me, I would probably also say Zach. And it's because Chris Bassett might have a higher chance of giving you, you know, like a sub four er just given his recent track record. Maybe I'm not totally convinced of that, but Chris Bassett has been steadier the past few years. But Zach Gallen has the higher ceiling, certainly at this stage in his career. Like I could imagine Zach Gallen going out and having a you know, ace like sort of season. I don't think it's likely. Again, it's not the baseline expectation for him, but I can envision a world where that happens, where he goes out and just has an awesome year and is able to really get paid next offseason. It's hard to imagine that with Chris Bassett. I mean, Chris Bassett is thirty six years old going on his age thirty seven season, and if you're the d Backs right now, like, yes, you do need stability as well. That also is a good thing, but you also need some breakouts. Like the only way, frankly, the only way this Diamondbacks team is gonna get where they want to go is if a few guys kind of come out of nowhere and are just awesome, right Like, You're gonna need a few of those to happen. Not everyone on the roster, but you're gonna need a few of those. And so I think for this team in this situation, it makes sense for them to chase ceiling for them, for them to chase a guy who has a chance to go out there and be really, really good, even if you're not necessarily expecting that. So that's where that's where I stand on this. I also did find the Fangrafts projection for Bassett looks like looks like Zips has him at a four oh five ERA and Steamer has him at four point three zero. So pretty pretty similar to Gallen in that regard.

00:50:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I finally got mine to pull up too. So four point one eight on the average one point nine WAR versus two point four for Zach, So you know, point zero point two runs in point five War. That's the difference of their projection, which is reasonable. I mean, you know, it's fewer innings. I mean, they're projecting Zach one hundred and ninety one innings in Bass at one hundred and seventy one seventy four.

00:50:28
Speaker 1: So yeah. The fact that Zach Gallen only got a one year contract though Jack is still just I mean, it is a thirty year old pitcher, right, I mean, this just doesn't happen. I know he's coming off a rough season, certainly that played an enormous impact, but a thirty year old was Zach Allen's track record, even coming off a down year. The fact that he took a one year contract is this is gonna blow my mind for for a little while.

00:50:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, he's you know, he's got the opportunity to turn around and have a good season and still going to fre free agency at the age of thirty one and go get a five year, two hundred million dollar deal if he has a great season, so you know, go for it, Zach, you can do it.

00:51:13
Speaker 1: Well. Happy Gallantine's Day to all of you, all of you in the chat. I've been waiting to pull that pun out this whole time Grant did. It was also on the thumbnail if you're joining us on YouTube, so maybe maybe you've already seen it, but but yes, we appreciate all of you for being here in the chat, interacting with us, sticking around throughout the duration of this episode. As always, we'd really appreciate it if you would hit the like button here on YouTube, subscribe to our channel, hit the bell icon, get notifications, make sure you never miss an episode. If you're joining us on an audio only platform after the fact, we'd also really appreciate it if you would leave us a five star review. You can find us on social media. I am at Jesse and Friedman on Twitter. Jack is at sho Wizard fifty nine. The show is at same territory, and of course Jack does a great job covering the Arizona Diamondbacks over at Arizona Diamondbacks on SI Jack any final thoughts here as we close out this emergency edition of Snake's Territory.

00:52:15
Speaker 2: I've got some work to do. I gotta go rework some projections and payroll numbers and playing time numbers. I think we're getting pretty close to dial in a few things in.

00:52:25
Speaker 1: Well, we've said it before, expect the unexpected when it comes to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they did it once again as Zachallen returns to the Diamondbacks on a one year deal for a little over twenty two million dollars little under twenty million when you factor in the deferrals. Fascinating move from them. Be good to see Zach Gallen out at the ballpark, hopefully here in a few days when you and I are both out there. And of course we'll be back with with more coverage here soon on Snake's Territories. I said before, be sure to hit the like button on your way out, subscribe to our channel. We really appreciate your support and we'll be back another edition of Snake's Territory very very soon.

00:53:14
Speaker 2: Hm.