Padres trade rumors & targets

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Kyle Blazer is dialed in on the San Diego Padres. He is the lead host of Friar Territory. Joining us right now on foul Territory. One thing while we talk to Kyle, please go to the Friar Territory YouTube channel and just press subscribe. That's all we want you to do. It is absolutely free to do that while this conversation goes on. It would mean a lot. And now, Kyle, give us your best stuff on what the Padres are going to do over the next twenty four hours.

00:00:25
Speaker 2: How you doing doing all right?

00:00:27
Speaker 3: Guys? Look?

00:00:28
Speaker 2: AJ Preller is always aggressive at the deadline. The Potters are having conversations with multiple teams about multiple different combinations. When you talk about AJ Preller and this Potters front office, nothing is off the table. Big aggressive moves are their mo that's what they like to do. There are some limiting factors this year, just in terms of they're right around the second luxury text threshold. They don't have a lot of room to add payroll and their form system it's not terrible, but it's not great. They have limited players they can deal from there too, So there are some limiting factors. But the Potters are always going to be exploring big aggress moves, and they're at least having those conversations again this year.

00:01:03
Speaker 1: Okay, so let's dive into details. What do they need and are there any particular names that you think that they're looking for.

00:01:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the Podterys really have multiple areas they need to upgrade in the lineup. They are bottom two in the Majors by ops at catcher, left field, and d H three different lineup spots. They're bottom two in the Majors, so acquiring bats is priority number one. Look, we've seen some of the names out there. Jared Duran, who realistically likely isn't getting traded and the Potterys don't have what it would take to acquire him. We've seen Stephen Kwan's name. Realistically, in order for the Padres to get any sort of player with multiple years of control and somewhat of a salary commitment, they're going to have to move salary off their books. And that's where you're starting to see discussions about maybe trading Dylan c somewhere and then using that payroll savings to go get two or three bats, because again, they're not one bad way. They need multiple bats, and that's tricky to do with the limited payroll room they currently have right now.

00:01:59
Speaker 4: Is there a move? Is there a move that gets you that baseball trade for Cease or Robert Suarez? I get it, you know they the Red Sox might not want Robert Suarez for Duran. You know, is there a move that you see out there that takes care of their need and also possibly could move Suarez or Cease.

00:02:20
Speaker 2: Nothing that is an easy fit. I think realistically, if the Potters chose to clear some payroll space and move Dylan sees. Robert Swarez, as you mentioned, has a player option after this year, he's likely going to opt out, So if they chose to move them, it would likely be for prospects. Then they create payroll savings and then use that savings and maybe some of the prospects they acquired to go acquire a big impact bat or two, because moreder to get the quality of hitters they need. They need the payroll space, but they also need some more prospects to deal as well.

00:02:50
Speaker 1: Give me the update on Michael King. It sounds like he could be back soon, and we all know how good he can be if he's feeling one hundred percent. I mean, he can be a number one starter and a dude in the playoffs for them, and maybe that's why they're feeling a little bit better about potentially trading away Cease and having him at the top of the rotation.

00:03:10
Speaker 2: Michael King, the last update was that Potters expect him to be back sometime in August. Now, I will caution the Padres are an organization that tends to say one thing on a timeline, and it almost always takes longer, so we'll see exactly when he returns. But realistically, part of the reason the Potters are comfortable trading Dylan ceaes he just hasn't been very good this year. You look at some of the peripherals, you like that, but his era is four point seventy nine. There's been a lot of outings where he's laboring. We just saw him. There are one hundred and two pitches to get through four and two thirds innings. There's been a lot of ninety five pitches for five innings, one hundred and three pitches to get through six and some of the people who look at the peripherals keep saying, oh, it's going to get better, it's going to get better, it's just bad luck. It's actually getting worse. Dylan Seas has one quality start in the last six weeks, and over those six weeks he has a five point seven oh ERA. His fit for people who like underlying statistics is in the mid to high fives.

00:04:00
Speaker 4: As well.

00:04:01
Speaker 2: He's giving up a lot of hard contact this year, and a lot of hard contact in the air. His command has not been very good all year and it's not getting better. So from the Potter's perspective, you look at it and say, despite the fact that U Darbish has been hurt most of the yer, Joel Musk Groves out for the year after having TJ, Dylan Sees hasn't been very effective, and Michael King is hurt. Despite that, the Potters are top five in the majors in eer whip and opponent's batting average. They feel like they have enough starting pitching to pick up the slack if they trade Dylan Cees not just for Michael King, but from some of the other arms in the rotation that have really stepped up and quietly had really good years, like Ryan Berger, Randy Vasquez and a couple guys at the back.

00:04:37
Speaker 3: Have there been conversations where questions asked of the padres is Dylan sees healthy because you see you see free agent seasons where pitchers are like players are like no, no, I'm playing through this and some of the peripherals just don't work out.

00:04:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, he is healthy. The issue has been command again. He is. His velocity is fine. He actually the majors and strikeouts for nine. I think a lot of people are missing that. And his command issues they're not manifesting in the walks. He's not walking a lot of batters. What's happening is he's getting into a lot of deep counts. He's falling behind and counts a lot, and then he's also just missing over the plate a lot. Look, every pitcher is going to have a mistake pitcher two or three when you throw a hundred pitches a game. Dylan Seese's problem has been he's making eight or nine mistake pitches a game. He's averaging he's allowing about a hit aen inning over the last six weeks. Again, you look at all the baseball savant metrics, you know, hard hit rate, barrel rate. He's in the bottom half of the league. So his stuff is good enough to miss bats when he's hitting his spots, But there's been too many times over the course of games he's not hitting his spots. And again it has been one or two mistakes a game, it's been eight or nine, and he's giving up a lot of hard contact.

00:05:45
Speaker 5: So if someoney who loves dylancies it hurts me to say he's not having a dear because I wanted him to win the cy Young this year because just I love Dylance's so But more importantly to me, is we keep hearing Suarez? Is he the only guy in the bullpen they're willing to move? Or what about a match Suey, your er, anybody else on that bullpen? I'm more a hone or anybody they would be willing to talk about.

00:06:05
Speaker 3: Or is it just swear as or bust?

00:06:06
Speaker 5: And why I don't understand why they would trade Suarez is not like he's super expensive and he's been really effective for him.

00:06:12
Speaker 2: The Potters bullpen is absolutely their strength, and if they don't have the trade from it, they certainly don't want to. But when you talk about again the Potters having all the needs they do offensively and the lack of payroll space, they're going to look at all potential options, and the argument for trading Suarez is he's likely going to opt out at the end of the year, and the Potters can withstand his loss better than they could withstand a loss some other parts of their team. You have Jason Adam, you have Audrin Morhon, you have Jeremiah Strata. That would be a pretty good seven, eight to nine. So again, it's just going to come down to the right package, the right player. Talk about other guys they could trade Yuki Matsuie. They would love to shed that salary, but his has been the high four to low fives. He just has not been very effective. I can't see many teams taking him on with twenty million dollars left on his contract over multiple years. Wandy Perolt is a fine lefty, but he has two player options after this year that you really don't want him to pick up if you're an acquiring team. So it's a little bit tricky. You know, more Honus, Strata ad them. They're all cheaper, but because they're cheaper is why the Podres would want to keep them. We'll see what happens, but if they're going to trade someone, considering they need to move money. Score as is the most logical candidate.

00:07:20
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00:07:55
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00:08:20
Speaker 5: Okay, let's actually talk about the team. Now they're playing well. They're playing really well. Right now, they're swinging the bad. Bogarts is just kind of turned a corner a little bit. What's changed. What's changed for these Padres.

00:08:33
Speaker 2: Their best hitters are all actually hitting at the same time, which is something that happen season. Xander Bogarts was one of the worst hitters in baseball. For the first two and a half months, he was bottom ten among all qualified hitters OPS. Over the last month and a half, he's hitting well over three hundred with an OPS over nine thirty Fantasis Junior. Over his last twenty games, he's hitting over three hundred with an OPS. So in the nine to forties, Jackson Merril was slumping. He had a two hor orn game against the Phillies. He's on a nine game hitting streak. Any Machado and looser Rise have been pretty consistent all year. So now that the Potters are getting all of their key hitters swinging the bat at the same time, we're seeing them reach levels of offense they haven't for a while. The Potters have scored seven plus runs in half of their game since the All Star break. They didn't score seven runs in a game for a full month before that. So the key guys hitting is a big, big reason why. At the same time, guys are gonna have ups and downs. They're gonna have highs and lows, as we've seen from all these guys this year. So the potters can't just count on all these guys being hot at the exact same time for two months straight, really three months straight. They need to get some other hitters to supplement to be able to pick up the slack when one of those guys gets hurt or goes through a slump, as they inevitably will because we're talking about baseball, it happens.

00:09:43
Speaker 5: Baseball's hard, Kyle. Just remember hitting is really hard to do. So it does feel like this, okay, And the best ones keep the low's high and the highs higher, all right, But what about the starting pitcher for tonight, you, Darvish oh and three with over nine ERA a lot of high whip, hasn't been able to go deep, has been able to miss a lot of bats. He's over forty years old. Now, like, what are we looking at here with you, Darvish? I know he's signed right for a couple more years too.

00:10:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Potters gave him an extension he signed through age forty two. You, Darvish is still in a lot of ways building up from his elbow inflammation that kept him out for most of the season. You have to remember he only made one rehab start, came out of that with some elbow tightness, and after that was just throwing simulated games, was throwing some sides, some bullpen sessions. He didn't really have much of a build up in terms of two or three rehab starts to get used to the adrenaline, the feel of pitching an actual game. That's what these last three starts have been. They've almost been part of his rehab process. The Padres hope is now as we move into start four or five, six, we start to see some improvements and get back to the old U darbish. They're not too worried about his last three starts just because the way his rehab went. But if this continues, yeah, it's going to be a concern.

00:10:53
Speaker 5: On the back of the had elbow tightness. Like I don't know, I mean, I like, you need you can't afford if you're the Padres, you can't afford to get away.

00:11:00
Speaker 2: Games, and again they gave him a little bit of time off after that elbow tightness, and they decided the best rehab continuation from that elbow tightness was to just keep him throwing stimulated games and off to the side. So whether that was wise or not is obviously up for debate, but that was the decision they made.

00:11:20
Speaker 1: He hadn't pitched for most of the season.

00:11:22
Speaker 5: I know that, but you would think you need to rehab to build up. I mean, this isn't This isn't Otani where you get an extra roster spot to build a guy up in the middle of the season. This is like games of Padres need. Padres are in the thick of it. That's why I don't know. That's why it's surprising to hear and listen, I played with you, I've done you for a long time, so I mean, if anyone could do it would be you.

00:11:43
Speaker 4: Darbish.

00:11:43
Speaker 5: But man, the Padres. These are important games for the Padres.

00:11:47
Speaker 2: No question about it. And look, the Padres. Part of the reason they're in position to be aggressive buyers at the deadline is they have been playing well. They had a losing record in June, their first losing month July got off to an uneven start, but they've won four straight, taking the last two against the Cardinals in Saint Louis, which is always tough. Taking the first two of a series against the Mets. They want a series against the Phillies. The Potters are fifty nine and forty nine. They've actually created some breathing room between them and the rest of the wild card field. They're three games up on the Reds, who are the first team out, the Potters the last team in right now. There was a point earlier this month the Potters had fallen out of playoff position and their record was creeping closer and close to five hundred. To their credit, in large part because of how good the offense has been recently and again the bullpen being lights out. The Potters are playing really well and that is what has put them in position to be aggressive and make some of these potentially big, aggressive type of moves. Three weeks ago, it wasn't clear they were going to be in a position to do this, and to the team's credit, they have put themselves in position.

00:12:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if there's two or three more of these starts, for Darbish, he'll probably go back on the aisle. Yeah, I know they're trying to say.

00:12:50
Speaker 5: First two or three or you know, if it comes down to it, which at one point it will look like it was. That could be the difference between getting and not getting it. But you know, they have created some distance because some other have kind of falling apart.

00:13:01
Speaker 1: Gosh, the Giants, Yeah, Giants are one of them. Yeah, the Giants really fell apart. Let's finish with that, Kyle. The NL West was looked at at this super division for the first couple months of the year.

00:13:13
Speaker 3: What happened.

00:13:16
Speaker 2: The Giants and Diamondbacks fell off. The Diamondbacks didn't get off to a great start, but there was a point where they were starting to pick it up. You saw this explosive offense, but the pitching just combination didn't stay healthy or effective enough. So they obviously fallen off. Now they're clear sellers. And look, the Giants offense has been one of the worst in baseball for the better part of three months now. It started on May fifteenth and hasn't really gotten better. They were still able to scratch out some games. They acquired Raffield Devers. You say, hey, they're in position to take off. Instead, they have the worst record in baseball since June fifteenth, when they acquired Devers and Devers has not been great. But it's not like it's been his fault. The entire offense has just not been producing. A lot of guys are not performing to levels they should, and this has kind of been a problem for the Giants year in a year out finding the right offensive mix. Once again, it just isn't happening. And to the Podgers credit, they have taken advantage. Their offense was almost as bad as the Giants for the same stretch, but they did a better job staying afloat, and then once their guys started finding their rhythm again, they've been able to create some separation.

00:14:14
Speaker 1: Kyle, great stuff. I'm sure we'll be chatting and we'll be hearing from you on Friar Territory when aj Preler does his thing, and we know he will.

00:14:21
Speaker 2: Right absolutely, we'll have a full wrap up show. We've got Heath Belt, We've got Mike Cameron, We've got all sorts of guests, so we will have you covered top to bottom for whatever the Potters do.

00:14:31
Speaker 1: Thank you, Kyle, we'll talk to you soon.

00:14:33
Speaker 5: Subscribe to Friar Territory.

00:14:34
Speaker 1: Too, that's what I wanted to say. Yeah, absolutely, there it is. There's Kyle and Heath. They'll be breaking down trades for you, so head over to Friar Territory. They're looking for their one thousand subs. They're in the mid eight so give them a little love right now. Kyle's one of the best and nicest in the biz.