483: Mailbag 2/19/21

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha. J J. Zacher reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at Fandel and at Number five dot com in this episode four hundred and eighty three of the Late Round podcast when many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network thank you for tuning in. Sports betting is great. Sports betting with FanDuel Sportsbook that's even better. Fandel Sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on any sport with reduced risk with their exclusive same game Parlay insurance. Simply places a three leg or more parlay to be eligible for the offer and follow along as the game unfolds. If you don't win your bet, Fandel will refund your bet up to twenty five dollars in site credit.

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Speaker 1: Head to Fandel Sportsbook and place your same game parlay today. Must be twenty one years or older in president New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Virginia, and Michigan. Refundation is non withdrawable site credit max refund one five dollars. Terms apply gambling problem called one hinter Gambler, and West Virginia visit one hitter gambler dot net, and Indiana call one hundred nine with it. In Colorado call one hundred five to two forty seven hundred, and in Iowa call one hundred bets off. Now let's get to these questions. The first question this week is from at Dada war Uk. Talk to me about DJ Shark. If we assume Lawrence is taken by the Jags at quarterback, do you see him jumping into the wide receiver one range in twenty twenty one, or as channault the wide receiver to have in Jacksonville, given Urban Meyer history with that type of player. So I'll be honest with you, guys, I never know where I stand with DJ Shark. I wasn't in on him during his breakout year, and then I wasn't in on him last year. I've just sort of avoided him because he hasn't gone down a traditional path. He was fine in my prospect model, or at least my revised prospect model, but his rookie year production was trash, and that's usually a terrible sign for what's to come. And then he had that big second year and followed up with sort of a dud this past year, at least versus expectation. There's some data that shows this past year was a quarterback problem, though. According to Pro Football Focus, among wide receivers with fifty or more targets, last year, DJ Shark's catchable target rate ranked in about the ninth to tenth percentile. In twenty nineteen, he was more in the thirty third percentile. That's partially because he saw a lot of deep targets this past year, thirty eight percent of his targets traveled fifteen or more air yards. In twenty nineteen, that number was twenty six and a half percent, But in twenty twenty he had one.

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Speaker 2: Of the highest deep ball rates in the league.

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Speaker 1: And when you have bad quarterback play, it's not going to be easy converting on those throws. That's likely why his catchable target rate was so bad. But there were only eight players with more fifteen plus airyard targets than Djhark in twenty twenty, and he did that while playing thirteen games. And he's been a good red zone threat given his situation. When you give it all context, high average depth of targets and then scoring ability. Those are the two things that you definitely want in a wide receiver. So I'm not that concerned about the lack of production in a terrible situation for DJ Chark. Thus far, or at least in year one and then year three, he's done things that show us that he can be a good fantasy asset. But to the question, do I see Chark jumping in the wide receiver one range in twenty twenty one, No, I don't. I mean it's possible, but you've got a rookie quarterback under center, which lowers your odds. Leviska Chanould is there, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jags go after another wide receiver this offseason. So while I do think that Chark is a solid player who's done well in a crappy circumstance, I'd be pretty surprised if he's a wide receiver one this year. And for the record, this doesn't mean that I'm off Chark next season. I'm just saying that it's smarter to bet on him not being a wide receiver one in fantasy than him being a wide receiver one. And I think you can make that argument without even strongly factoring in Laviska Chanault, who, as you mentioned, could really thrive with urban Meyer. The last question is an email says HIJJ. First off, congratulations on your well deserved awards.

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Speaker 2: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Second, it seems like a lot of the fantasy world missed the mark on the Packers last year. The narrative was that Rogers was in decline, the offense would be run heavy, and they had one of the worst draft classes ever. Fast forward a few months and Rogers's MVP and Adams is the wide receiver one. What did we miss on the Packers? Was this just an outlier year? Stay safe and warm, Sincerely, Jeremy So. First off, to be fair, the Packers were pretty run heavy this year in terms of overall passed the rush attempt ratio. They were twenty sixth in the league. I'd mentioned on shows this offseason. I thought the whole Green Bay would be more run heavy. Thing was overrated because that's generally dictated by gamescript and I didn't think the Packers were gonna win thirteen games again, but they did so I was wrong about that and their projection. I actually projected them to be more pass heavy than they were Aaron Rodgers just went ham and yes, it was an outlier season. Rogers had the second highest touchdown rate of all time last year, touch on rate being touchdowns divided by attempts. That number regresses year over year. We saw it with Lamar Jackson in twenty nineteen. We see it all the time. Rogers is not going to maintain that rate. Now, the Packers could end up being more pass heavy next year, and so Rogers could at least get a whole lot of touchdown passes due to an increase in the number of attempts.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna come close to forty eight though, but he.

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Speaker 1: Could still be a good fantasy asset because the denominator of that fraction is just getting bigger. But that's a huge reason the Packers passing offense did what they did.

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Speaker 2: For fantasy.

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Speaker 1: Rogers had an outlier season, and I don't really think that people missed on DeVante Adams. I know plenty of people who had him ranked as the wide receiver one going into last season. I had him back to back in my rankings with Michael Thomas. Now I didn't expect what he did to happen, but it ties directly into Aaron Rodgers touchdown rate. Adams is a special player who will do special things, but we cannot expect eighteen touchdowns in fourteen games, which is not logical. So I'd say the things that you're feeling about the Packers, it was really just driven by a high touchdown rate and a fairly high rate of throwing touchdowns versus rushing them. For the Packers, they were good offensively too, and that drove up their total touchdowns, but we shouldn't expect them to come close to what they did in twenty twenty through the air when we get to the twenty twenty one season. This as question is another question about the Packers is from at Get Your Chip? How aggressive should someone pursue AJ Dillon at this time in trade terms? So I thought about this question a good bit before landing on an answer that I was.

00:06:35
Speaker 2: Actually surprised at.

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Speaker 1: I actually think going for AJ Dillon right now makes sense. I didn't think I was gonna answer this way, but I dug in and I thought about it, and I think it makes sense. According to Dynasty League Football startup, ADP Dylan is the RB twenty five. In January, he was being drafted eighty first overall. Meanwhile, as we know Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones, they're both free agents. The Packers are the most likely landing spot for Aaron Jones, but that's not a guarantee at all. If Jones doesn't sign with Green Bay, then AJ Dillon's ADP is going to rise dramatically. He'd be a second year player with good draft capital associated with him, who looked pretty good when he finally was able to see the field last year, and he would be in an Aaron Rodgers led offense. My prospect model had him as an eighty second percentile player, so he definitely isn't that bad of a prospect. And keep in mind that model looks heavily at receiving. But like in January, according to DLF, Miles Gaskin was being drafted ahead of AJ Dillon on average, Chris Carson was drafted ahead. I mean, I even think that you can make the argument that AJ Dillon is a better fantasy asset in Dynasty than Ronald Jones's. And what happens if the Packers keep Aaron Jones around. I mean, where Dylan's being drafted, it's not totally far off of other handcuffs or other players in completely ambiguous situations. So if we're talking about where he was valued in January, where a drafts, I'm all for trading for aj Dillon. If the price starts to change from there, then I think that you can just hold, but I at least lean more by than sell. At this point, you got to go for the home run, and he's in a position where he can really pay off if just one thing breaks his way. This best question from at Mark Sweet forty four Rashad Penny. If Seattle moves on from Chris Carson, does it make sense for them to draft a running back or roll with Penny? What did your model think of him coming out? I think they likely have to draft a running back considering Penny hasn't been able to stay healthy or sign another back, or get another body in that backfield. They can't go into the season with supreme confidence and Rashad Penny being their number one back. Maybe they don't spend up to get that running back, but they're going to need a back if they don't have Chris Carson.

00:08:48
Speaker 2: Coming out.

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Speaker 1: Though my model loved Rashad Penny, it was tough for it not to. He had amazing college production, he had good size, and he was a first round pick. He just hasn't panned out. I think he's a good player, and if he stays healthy, if we were guaranteed no setbacks, then I would be more bullish on Rashad Penny. I still don't think it's a bad idea to send very little to try to get him, but I'd be shocked if Seattle went into the twenty twenty one season without adding any running back if they don't sign Chris Carson. This US questions from at John four two eight eight. How do you feel about Jalen Hurts going forward for dynasty purposes? Personally, I'm trying to get the value while I can. Just got the one oh five and three oh five in a superflex. A not great prospect who had a few blow up games and may not be the starter this year seems too risky to hold on to. So to be clear, this question was asked before the Carson Wentz trade went down, But even still, I think that you can make the argument that Jalen Hurts might not be the starter next year. Philadelphia could draft a quarterback. I think odds are in Hurts' favor, but it's still something to consider. I'll at least say this, though, I'll be very, very into Jalen Hurt Hurts in redraft this year and probably not as bollish in Dynasty because of the investment that's involved there. If he busts or if he doesn't even get a starting job, it's a lot easier to make up for that in redraft than in Dynasty. I think I generally agree with what you're saying here, though, John, But I'll play Devil's advocate and say that Hurts clearly has the upside that we're looking for in.

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Speaker 2: A fantasy quarterback.

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Speaker 1: That's why I can understand why people are buying him at his current price. His upside is pretty crazy. But yeah, there are some red flags. According to Pro Football Focus, Hurts was forty second in the league last year among relevant quarterbacks and adjusted completion percentage in a clean pocket, he was worse than Carson Wentz, and his quarterback rating in that situation in scenario wasn't very strong either. Now, I understand we can't just judge Jalen Hurts by his arm, because he brings a lot to the table with his legs. But front offices don't always think that way. And the question with Jalen Hurts is not is he going to make an impact in fantasy football. He would make an impact in fantasy football if he were the starter, If he were locked in as a starter for the next ten years, we would be drafting him as like a fringe top five quarterback in dynasty. But we're just not so sure that he's going to keep that starting job. And my guess is that you're gonna get wildly different evaluations on Jalen Hurts across your league's this offseason.

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Speaker 2: But I think the.

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Speaker 1: Trade that you did was strong. I personally would rather bet on an incoming rookie quarterback with early first round draft capital who still has some rushing upside than Jalen Hurts. But that doesn't mean that I'm not recognizing how high of a ceiling Jalen Hurts has. I just think it's a safer bet to go with one of those rookies, which is essentially what you did with this trade. The best question is from at goat Wattles, how does the COVID shorten college season for some players affect the rookie model? Are you going to have to make some adjustments or just keep it in mind for some players that the sample is just different. There are different sample sizes, but all the metrics that I look at are either on a per game basis or in relation to a player's team or market share.

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Speaker 2: So this is a deal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's something I'm keeping in mind, but it's not a huge deal. The model looks at the best seasons within the three production metrics for running backs and wide receivers, So even if a player didn't play this year, he still can get love in the model if he did well before this year. But yes, you could argue that it hurts players who didn't play, of course, similar to how you can argue that prospecting through data often hurts injured players. You always need context, and I'm sure this year, across the league and across fantasy, I wouldn't be surprised if accuracy isn't this strong, just because it's a weirder season. But it's not to the point where we just blow it all up and just forget everything and start throwing darts. The last question this week is from at Jake Trowbridge JJU stud Is there a preferred time of year to trade for running backs and dynasty, I e. Do you go after them early in the offseason before landing spots slash depth charts are secured to get a discount, or do you wait for the security and trade at quote full price. I think it will always depend. I generally am not trading for running backs who are free agents because that means that they don't have a lot of time left in the league.

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Speaker 2: That's just how it is.

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Speaker 1: Not everyone is Joe Mixon age wise, but like, let's take Aaron Jones as an example.

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Speaker 2: Jones still has.

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Speaker 1: A pretty high ADP and dynasty, and it's not like any destination is going to be light years better than what he had in Green Bay. Even though they didn't always feature him like we wanted them to feature him. Green Bay was and is a good spot for Aaron Jones. So from that perspective, Jones's value as a higher likelihood to drop than to rise if he ends up signing elsewhere. There are some places that would be fine, but if he goes to a bad landing spot, people aren't going to want Aaron Jones as much. This is just generally speaking. I just think Green Bay is a good place for a running back to be in general, so I'm not really inclined to buy him right now, even though I think there's still a chance that he signs in Green Bay. Like I talked about earlier, he's also twenty six years old, but that's for a separate discussion. So I'm looking at individual players, seeing what their current situation has been and judging where it can go from there. And I'm doing all of this before the draft and even before free agency. I think it's important to do that, or at least have it in the back of your mind, for every single player. But I guess I do believe in my ability to comprehend those scenarios and predict the probability of things unfolding better than others because there are ways to accurately project that kind of thing. You can project landing spot, you can project where a player might and might not go.

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Speaker 2: You can look at.

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Speaker 1: Draft capital, at cap space, at general team philosophy. You can read what beat writers are saying. There are ways to project how a team is going to handle the running back position. If I'm buying a running back, I use those clues before things get nuts. So I guess if I were to say one way here or go with one side to this answer, I'd say that I'd be more inclined to buy before free agency in the draft. And I also don't think there's a clear cut answer for something like this, because the idea is that you should always be buying and selling to obtain value, and that can come in a lot of forms. It can be value for your particular team build. You could be acquiring value because there's a team in your league that's just blowing things up and you're trying to take advantage of that. I just don't think there's like a one hundred percent way of doing something like this. I would just say that I enjoy the process of predicting the landing spot side by using the clues that we've got, and I think I can do it better than the average manager, so as a result, I can usually get better discounts before the dust settles.

00:15:35
Speaker 2: That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.

00:15:37
Speaker 1: If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening. Everyone, enjoy your weekend and I will talk to you next week.