780: Approaching Unique Leagues

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachera Jake zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode seven and eighty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Don't forget to check out the Late Round Draft Guide. It's packed full of fantasy football research that will help you crush your drafts this year. You get strategy, philosophy, rankings, and tiers, players to target, players to avoid in more. It's a downloadable pdf that hits your inbox right when you purchase it, and then you get weekly updates with new rankings and players the target and avoid. Check it all out right now at lateround dot com. I want to start off today's show by saying that I know that you don't care about my leagues. My job isn't to tell you that I want a championship in a home league, or that I'm doing well in some higher stakes contest or some industry league. My job is to help you win, period, end of story. Sometimes, though, I recognize that there are instances where talking about a league of mine might be helpful because you can learn about my process a little bit better and how I approach things, And you probably wouldn't be listening to this podcast if you didn't care at all about those things. I can talk about theories and hypotheticals all day long, but sometimes examples can really help. The Scott Fish Bowl kicked off last week. For those of you who aren't aware of what the Scott Fish Bull is, it's a giant league that Scott Fish puts together every single year with hundreds of fantasy analysts, fans, celebrities. There are tons and tons of people involved. There are different leagues of twelve teams and they compete in a giant tournament later in the season during the Fantasy playoffs. That's the gist of it, and it's all for charity. It's put on to raise money for Fantasy Cares, which you can learn more about at Fantasycares dot org. Now each year, Scott changes up the scoring and structure of the Scott Fish Bull or SFB for short. It's unique scoring. Every season, there's usually something like a point per first down component. This year we've got a quarter point per carry. It's superflex. You've got a lot of flex spots. It's a two x tight end premium league. Stuff like that. The crazy scoring in league structure creates a lot of different strategies by drafters. There are more things to juggle, making it more difficult for everyone to just follow the exact same strategy like we sometimes see in a regular season long league. That's the Scott Fishbowl. That's the introduction. Now I want to get into how I approach this kind of thing and why I'm honestly catching some heat for how I approach my draft in the Scott fish Bowl. Now, the first thing I usually do in situations where league settings are different, like SFB, is I build a quick value over replacement player formula. VORP is a concept that I talk about in the Late Round Draft Guide, and it's a concept that I think it's overused a bit in the fantasy football space. VORP usually relies on projections. You take a projection for a player, compare that projection to a baseline player, and you get a number to designate value. And that number can then be compared across positions, which helps you know when to take one position over the other. But I don't think that you can solely draft off of something like VORP. The first couple of rounds of a draft are probably most helpful for VORP, but projections are median outcomes. When you're drafting in the fourth, fifth, sixth rounds and beyond, you're probably focused more on upside or sealing outcomes, or you should be anyway. When league structures are funky like the Scott Fishbowl, I take my projections, I alter them for the league scoring settings, and then I build out a quick VORP formula to see how to generally value players. I'm just trying to get a general feel here now. Before talking about what the VORP formula showed me for SFB, I want to note that the raw projections very clearly showed quarterbacks scoring a lot of points. They showed that running backs were going to score a lot of points. They showed that tight ends were gonna score a lot of points, and wide receivers were also. There were a lot of points, but maybe not as many as the other three positions. Wide receivers overall were a little bit devalued. The thing is with VORP, you're trying to find some sort of baseline player to compare these projections against, and in the Scott Fish Bowl you're starting one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, three flex spots, and one superflex. So it's effectively a two quarterback league because you're probably gonna want to play a quarterback in that super flex spot given the way the scoring works. But then you've got three wide receivers that you've got to start. At a minimum, that's two at running back and one at tight end, and then the flex spots can be filled with whatever outside of quarterback. There's also kickers in this, but I'm gonna ignore kickers just for the sake of argument. When there are a lot of flex spots like that, you've got to make some assumptions about how your league might handle those flex spots. Clearly, running back might be favored because they seem to score more raw points than wide receivers. Tight Ends could even be favored two two. But I think a huge problem that people are running into when they're analyzing this league in particular is that they're being too broad. They're being too general. Yes, running backs score more points than wide receivers in this format, you hypothetically would favor a running back over a wide receiver in the flex, but not all running backs. Not every single running back is going to be better than every single wide receiver, and it's the same deal at tight end. Tight Ends get a ton of points given it's a two x tight end premium league, but it's not like there are thirty usable tight ends in fantasy football. You can say that hypothetically every team should fill their flex spots with tight ends, but starting Noah Gray every week probably is going to bring you a fantasy title. There aren't unlimited tight ends, so it's not reasonable to have a baseline at tight end at like tight end thirty, even if thirty tight ends can be started each week. Now, after figuring out some relatively arbitrary baselines for my projections, I got my VORP stuff under control, and it showed the things that you saw in SFB drafts if you've been following along. Travis Kelcey was very, very valuable. My numbers showed that he could have easily been the one to ZHO one in this draft. The elite quarterbacks were very good bets as well. The top running backs looked good, but the elite wide receivers were still good too. Now, after I had a decent idea of how the first handful of rounds might go, I started comparing this amateur VORP formula that I put together to my actual rankings and tiers for this season. Now you might be wondering why would I do that, Well, my projections aren't everything. We know that historical market trends exist, even if our market trends are coming from leagues that aren't unique like SFB. Generally speaking, at a high level, positional rankings aren't dramatically different in SFB versus a regular season long draft, and the same goes for any other unique format that you're in. Yes, there're gonna be some guys that get bumped up a decent bit and guys who get bumped down, But it's not like Austin Eckler all of a sudden sucks in SFB compared to other running backs, or that you should now randomly start drafting Odell Beckham. Really high volume is still driving the game. That's no different from one league to the next. All that's changing is where you're actually taking these players versus guys at other positions. That's it. Within the positions, things are relatively static. You could look at positional ADP for SFB and it compares very strongly to ADP in a regular Best ball draft. Right now, just think about a super flex league that you might be in. Everything's the exact same, except at Superflex you're not all of a sudden gonna draft Kenny Pickett above Joe Burrow. You're just selecting Kenny Pickett ahead of wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends that you wouldn't in a single quarterback league. What that means is that the positional trends that I talk about on this show that I talk about, my Draft guide, that I talk on any show that I go on, those positional trends are not dramatically changing. Now, if you've read the Late Round Draft Guide, I lay out where historically wide receivers are better bets in drafts and where running backs are better bets. Historically, for example, in the running back dead zone, wide receivers are better bets than running backs. Running Backs are in that RB two range, that RB thirteen to RB twenty four range. They generally don't perform significantly better from a ceiling perspective than running backs in the RB thirty range. So as it relates to the Scott Fish Bowl, yes, running backs may score more points at a high level than wide receivers. You may want to prioritize running backs in your flex more than wide receivers. But because I know those historical trends, I'm not necessarily going to go nuts and drafting a standard dead zone running back. Why not just load up in the RB threes or the RB fours even instead of the RB twos. And here's the thing INFT like this, when teams sort of start fulfilling their needs at a position, they stop drafting that position. I know there are eleven other teams in my draft. I know each of those teams need to start two running backs at least, so I know twenty two running backs we drafted, probably relatively early. But not every team is going to say to themselves, I just got to pound the running back position over and over and over again through the twenty two rounds of this draft, especially early on, because when they do that, they'll fear falling behind at other positions. What that means is that there's bound to be a point in the draft where if teams start drafting running backs aggressively like early on in SFB, they'll eventually stop. They'll eventually start getting wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends. And since I know that RB threes really aren't that much worse than RB twos from a ceiling perspective. If I'm not able to get RB ones, if the draft board doesn't fallen away where I can get the elite running backs, I'm not going to force the issue. I'd rather dominate other positions or get values at other positions and then wait for that halt and aggressive running back drafting to occur. And when that halt occurs, when people stop drafting running backs a lot, that's when I'm going to get my running backs. And that's what generally happened with me in this draft. In the first round, I thought I had a shot to get an elite quarterback. I had the tenth overall pick, and I thought to myself, maybe someone's going to take a running back or Justin Jefferson ahead of me, But that didn't really happen. So when it was my turn to pick, I took Justin Jefferson, who to me has a much better floor ceiling combo inherently just in any projection scenario than any running back in fantasy football this year. And my thought was that maybe Trevor Lawrence or Deshaun Watson would fall to me in round two because that was happening in other SFB drafts. They were the only two quarterbacks that I would consider before a drop in tier occurred. I wasn't going to reach for another quarterback in round two, but they were selected at the turn, so I did the next best thing. This was draft Jamar Chase, and it was for similar reasons as the wide drafted Justin Jefferson. And to be clear, those wide receivers, according to my numbers their overall VORP. It's not like it looked bad. The numbers may have slightly preferred one of the running backs there, but again, projections are not everything. There's a confidence involved in what that end number says, and I feel more confident about Chasing Jefferson hitting those marks than some of the running backs that would go there since they were close enough in VORP. I went the wide receiver direction, and for the record, they were close enough in VORP. Because this league forces you to start three wide receivers, let's not lose sight of that. Even though the scoring favors these other positions, the demand for wide receiver is still greater. When demand is greater, costs increase, the elite players become more valuable. Okay, So Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase. Those are my first two picks. There's a third round reversal. I'm looking at the board and this is where I could have gone with a running back, And in hindsight, I probably should have gone with one of the running backs. This is the only mistake that I felt that I made in this draft. But I opted to go with Stefon Diggs. Again, very similar logic with Diggs as Jefferson and Chase. It's also a fun build. Now, the quarterback position wasn't a priority for me at that moment because I'm paying attention to my tears. Quarterbacks get flat. After that, Deshaun Watson range and the guys who may have an advantage, like an Anthony Richardson. He was gone by my next pick, so I started with Jefferson, Chase, and Stefon Diggs. I thought to myself, I'll probably go running back or quarterback with my next pick, my fourth round pick, and I was about to select Kirk Cousins with that pick. I wanted to pair him with Justin Jefferson, but he was drafted the pick before me. I got sniped, So again I used the same logic as I've been using. I got Devonte Adams, who was sort of the last of the elite wide receivers, and he had fallen a lot in this draft. It wasn't as though that I set out to start my draft with four wide receivers. It was that the board fell that way. I was being reactive to what my league mates were giving me. I'm not going to force a draft selection and devalue that pick simply because it seems to fit a draft strategy need Like I could have taken a running back over Devonte Adams, sure, like an Aaron Jones, maybe a Joe Mixon. But not only did my brief vorp work show that Adams was more valuable, I also still feel more confident in his projection than I do those running backs. And not only that, but we're getting to that spot in the draft where historical trends kick in, where I know those RB thre's can be just as impactful as RB two's. And for the record, this is not me saying to fade Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones this year. I'm just showing them as examples because I preferred DeVante Adams. Now I didn't get my first quarterback then until round five. I'm not high on him this year, but it was Aaron Rodgers. I then expected more quarterbacks get drafted after I took Aaron Rodgers in the fifth round, and then the sixth round before my pick. Remember I was in the ten spot. But with the next selection, I got Jared Goff, who's in the same tier as Rogers for me, So I still got two respectable quarterbacks for a format like this, despite waiting longer than the other teams at the position, because I knew that teams were more than likely not going to draft a third quarterback until they felt good at the other positions like running back and wide receiver, and that wouldn't happen likely at the earliest until the round seven range. Now, I hope I'm making sense right now. I know that this is sort of a rant. I know that I'm just sort of going on and on and on about this, but I do think that it's important now. Of course, my running back room is lacking. When you go through a draft like this and you approach it in an unbalanced way like I did, you're gonna have holes at a position. But the approach that I took was one where Number one I differentiated my lineup a good bit within a pool of many, many teams. That's a plus. You want your team to be different, you want your structure to look different. But number two I didn't force the issue with any player. We can sit here and say that running backs matter more with this scoring, and they do. I wouldn't disagree with that, But ask yourself what that actually means. Does that mean that we should start favoring the standard dead zone running backs more than we typically would It doesn't. Those running backs are still slated, based on history, to not be that much better than the RB three types. Again, this is from a ceiling perspective, which is all I care about in that range. You can think of it this way. What drives fantasy football volume does no matter your format. Volume is going to play a crucial role for a running back to bust and not live up to expectation. More than likely he's going to see a hit in volume. His projected volume, or what we think he's going to see to start the season. His projected volume is much greater than his actual volume. That idea and concept does not change when your league settings change. If Damian Pierce does indeed lose some work to Devin Singletary this year. He's not going to live up to expectation in any format in your regular redraft league and scott Fish Bowl anywhere. He's gonna lose volume. That matters in every single league. So having him in your flex spot in a league like SFB after going running back heavy, yeah, you know, maybe there's a little bit of a buffer compared to other formats because this one favors running backs more than wide receivers. But if he's losing volume, he's losing volume, he's not gonna be as good of a pick in any format, which means the exact same things that we look for in our typical league can absolutely be transferred over into these types of leagues. You just have to think about it a little bit differently. Now, again, I recognize that this episode is almost a giant rant. I understand that. I just think it's a really really important concept when you have a baseline understanding of how the fantasy football market works, of how players tend to bust, of where in drafts they tend to bust, of why those players based on the market end up busting. When you have that baseline understanding it can really help shape your strategy for more unique format that's like the Scott Fish Bowl. Because Fantasy football is more than projections. The confidence in that projection matters. The ceiling of that projection matters. Where you can get comparable players in your draft, that matters. The list goes on and on, and it's a list that's covered extensively in the Late Round Draft Guide. Now, is my team gonna win this whole tournament? Absolutely not. The chance of that is super small, and there's a lot of luck involved given the number of teams. But I do think that my approach was logical. That's what matters most to me. I have solid quarterbacks. I ended up getting two of my favorite tight ends this year. I have elite elite wide receivers, and my approach at running back was to get players who have baseline production, maybe not an elite production, but baseline production, who then have contingent upside, like David Montgomery. He was my first running back off the board because not only can he just produce with Jamior Gibbs healthy and in that lineup, but what happens if Gibbs misses a game or two during the playoffs Montgomery would then be the upside play that I need to win this thing, and I did the exact same thing with samajp Ryn. Those are the type of backs that I'm looking for in a format like this. Is it a boom or bust strategy? Sure, if you want to play it safe, you can get a couple of quarterbacks to start your draft and then just start pounding the running back position. But you're not necessarily extracting value that way. And that's what this is really all about. It's about being nimble during your draft and getting as much value as possible. Now, maybe you didn't learn a thing from today's show, maybe I didn't even make sense, but this is the way that I think about fantasy football. This is what's helped me do well with this game in the past, and I hope it does the same for you. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fit it to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening. Everyone greatly appreciate it as always. I'll be back in your podcast feeds later in the week with the Mailbag Show.