Late-Round Perspectives: Denny Carter

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Speaker 1: Denny Carter is a writer and podcaster for NBC Sports Rotal World, and he co hosts the Living the Stream podcast. He's a wee golf pro, he's got one of the best heads of hair in the fantasy space, and he's never been owned online. These are his Late Round Perspectives. I'm really excited about this because this is the first time, after years and years of talking to one another, that we're able to podcast together.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: That's right, this is at first I appreciate the opportunity.

00:00:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm very excited for those of you who don't know.

00:00:44
Speaker 1: For the record, Denny and I have another podcast, Living the Stream that we just finished episode two hundred and sixty nine of Nice for Living the Stream, and I thought i'd have him on Late Round Perspectives. You have been one of the guests that folks have talked up the most to come on Late Round Perspectives because we have a certain dynamic on Living the Stream where you know, I'm kind of guiding the conversation a little bit, and you know, we're we're giving our our sort of the same flow each week, whereas Late Round Perspective is much more a Denny driven.

00:01:19
Speaker 2: Show, right flowing you say what you want.

00:01:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, right right, And this, you know, the show is is more about you, Denny. This is I want to learn more about you. I feel like I know a good bit about you, but I want folks to learn more about you. And I want to hear some takes because you know, we talk to each other all the time about fantasy football, We dm each other, we text each other, all that good stuff. But I you know, there's still some things that I don't know how you feel about, and I would love for this show to sort of be that arena for you to spew those takes.

00:01:51
Speaker 2: I'm all for it. I will say I do feel over overly exposed online after all these years. So we'll see. We'll see if folks know everything about me or if there's something's left to learn.

00:02:01
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:02:02
Speaker 1: I mean, of all of the fantasy analysts, I feel like you're one of the You're probably in the ninety eighth percentile in terms of what's out there about you.

00:02:09
Speaker 3: You know, you're not really hiding anything, but I do want to.

00:02:13
Speaker 1: I want to start things off by talking about your sort of journey in the space and becoming a fantasy football analyst and all that good stuff. You and I started at a really similar time. It was like back in that twenty eleven twenty twelve period, and I remember distinctly the reason why I found you, because I believe I found you.

00:02:32
Speaker 3: Before you found me.

00:02:33
Speaker 2: Really, Okay, Yeah, I'm.

00:02:34
Speaker 1: Going to just say that that's that's my win between the two of us. But I believe the reason I found you was you were at that fantasy football convention or some sort of conference that was in like New Jersey or something. Yes, it was in Jersey, is that what it was? And like Michael Vick was there, I think, and you were treating it as a sort of reporter, you know, you know, being there. And then from there, you know, I remember dming you and you and I seem to just like e kick it off, you know via dms and such, and then we just start ended up starting Living the Stream. I was like, hey, I want to do a podcast. You need to do a podcast with me. But we've been around for a while, is what I'm saying. I mean, we we I mean we are first Living the Stream episode was when your son Xavier was born. Yeah, and he's now what ten eleven.

00:03:26
Speaker 2: He's actually twenty two. He's in his third year of college. He's ten.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, right, right, And so look, we've been around for a while, but I want to ask you what do you think has changed the most through the years. I'm not just saying with fantasy football analysis, but also sort of the way that consumers are playing the game and people are playing the game.

00:03:46
Speaker 2: I have not thought about that New Jersey convention forever. Think. Thank you for mentioning that that you want to talk about a dopamine hit. That was a dopamine hit. Because I was virtually unknown, unfollowed on Twitter coming into that. I started tweeting about it, and and rum for Johnny and you and Evan Silva and Chris Westling, they all started retweeting me, and I'm like, oh my god, it's happening. So that was very cool. And yeah, so I was a reporter coming into this thing. Anyway, To address your question, what has changed, I mean everything has changed, because people who have gotten into fantasy football in maybe the last like five to seven years, you have no idea what the Stone Ages were like. Okay, and by Stone Agers, I'm not talking about the nineties or the eighties or whatever. I'm talking about twenty eleven Okay, we're twenty eleven. It was we still were not even talking about target shares. We were talking about targets. We're all targets as the ultimate measure of a guy's opportunity, and we didn't know any better. Like that was just it like, oh, this guy saw eleven targets and this guy saw eight, so the eleven is better, and you know, not incorporating what share of the targets anyway, That's just an example of how avvy things have gotten over the years, or I guess, I guess how backward our analysis was back then. But also there were very few numbers to work with. Back then. There weren't these huge databases of all these various numbers. I mean you would, I would. I would have had a stroke if you had told me, hey, what's what's the guy's rush yards over expected after contact? I would have just stroked out. So I mean, yeah, it's changed completely.

00:05:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah.

00:05:27
Speaker 1: I mean I look back at my original ebook, the lay Round Quarterback that helped me start my career and all that good stuff. I look back at that and the analysis in it, the writing in it, of course horrible, horrible, Like I don't want any human being on this earth to open up that ebook. Hopefully no one has it anymore because it was, you know, a decade ago. I don't want anyone to open that up and read it because the analysis in it is horrible.

00:05:54
Speaker 3: And now I don't say that from the.

00:05:56
Speaker 1: Perspective of you know, that's bad or that like I'm upset about that. I think it showed, you know, if my analysis hadn't changed through the years, I would be a very very bad thing. I think that everyone should look back ten years ago what you were doing in work in any any field and feel the same way to some degree. But with fantasy football and with this analysis and the things that we're doing, like you said, there's just so much more out there for us to uncover, and it's this sort of like exponential effect of not only are there more resources that are out there, but there's a lot of good work that's been done that everyone's just building off of. Right where we had we had like like a lot of stuff going on at roto viz back in the mid twenty tens where a lot of new ideas were thrown out there that people have built off of, a lot more game theory stuff, and so I think that it's just this like combination of not just more accessible data, which is absolutely true, but also you know, people just doing really good work that then we're able to build off of and discover new metrics.

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Speaker 2: For sure. Yeah, I mean I build off of people's work all the time, even still, where I'll you know, read something that sparks my interests, that piques my interests, you might say, and I'll say, well, like, let's go down this rabbit hole and see what I can find. And it's important as an analyst, is important to credit the person who started talking about this at some point, and I know you do that as well. But but yeah, I mean so that in that way we are a community. It's not the same community, I will say, because it used to be back into twenty eleven, twenty twelve, twenty thirteen, it was a war for attention online, okay, yeah, yeah, and we were we were desperately trying to claw our way up to the top of that mountain, and so we approached it in totally different ways. Today there's not that kind of discourse on X or whatever you want to call it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think some of it, I mean, some of it might just be our exposure to what we're seeing, you know, within the fantasy space and amongst analysts and all that stuff. But at the same time, back then, and I know that we sound like old men right now that are that are just complained about or reminiscing about what happened, you know, when we first.

00:08:03
Speaker 3: Started all that good stuff.

00:08:04
Speaker 1: But back then, the industry I don't think was seen as as big as it actually is. Right back then, there were not full time jobs readily available. I'm not saying that they're readily available now, but there are more now. Obviously there's more competition now too, but I think there's more opportunity in general, Whereas back then there were you could count the number of full time fantasy football analysts on one hand.

00:08:28
Speaker 2: It was a huge deal when someone landed a job in the industry, a full time job like that with like good pay and benefits. You were like, wait, what that can happen? And today it's just just another day when that happens.

00:08:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's just content sites everywhere where.

00:08:42
Speaker 1: You know, you can say that they're not the best jobs in the world all the time, but there's at least more opportunity out there for people to do this.

00:08:49
Speaker 3: For a living.

00:08:49
Speaker 1: Speaking of backgrounds and jobs, you do have a background sort of as a journalist, and you got your degree in journalism. How have you used that? You know, obviously you used to take advantage early on in your fantasy football career, you know, going to this conference that you totally forgot about. But how have you used it even today with your job at NBC Sports And I wrote a world.

00:09:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's been a long time since I've actually had like a journalism job. And you know, I was an editor. I was a reporter over the years for about twelve years. So but I do think that that is ingrained in me in the way I approach things. I was very into using data even back then in my in my journalistic endeavors, whatever they were. Like when I when I worked at the Gazet newspaper in Prince George's County, Maryland, Okay, that was my first job out of college. They literally paid us in peanuts, but I loved it. I may or may not have lived in the basement underneath my mom and dad's house. It was the best price I could that really.

00:09:52
Speaker 3: That hasn't changed though.

00:09:53
Speaker 2: I still live in a mom's basement. I after the show, I'm on a screen for my meat loaf from upstairs. But yeah, so even back then, I you know, I would say, you know, here, here's here's a data dump that the county school system did. I'm going to sift through this and see what I can see, and if there's a story in here, I want to write about it. And very often, very often that would produce some of the best stories that I think that I wrote over the years. So still I still tend to do that. I still tend to take that approach. But I also think the writing aspect. You know, I'm not going to sit here and pat myself on the back, but I like to think of myself as a decent writer. I think I can. I think I bring that to to fantasy football and try to make it interesting in a way that is sometimes difficult because I you know this, as someone who's constantly writing, it's hard to take these these numbers and these facts and figures and make them interesting and use colorful language, but not overly colorful. You know, you don't want to be a cheesy you know, you don't want to be over the top with it, but to make it an enjoyable read and informational. That's hard, but I like to think I can do it.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Yeah, No, I've.

00:11:01
Speaker 1: Learned so much from you through the years of how to write in a more conversational way, a more attractive way, not a robotic way, because it's so easy at the end of the day to sound like a robot when you're putting this stuff together, because it is robotic in a way, like it's the same stuff that we're sifting through every single week, and you got to add a little flavor to that. And it's kind of tough. You're gonna see similar set and structures, you're gonna see a similar way of phrasing things, and you gotta kind of fluff that up and make it a little bit more entertaining. And that's not easy to do, and I think that you do it better than anyone else in the space. So speaking of your job, now, you're at rotal World. You've been there for how long you been there now?

00:11:36
Speaker 3: A few years?

00:11:37
Speaker 2: Three years?

00:11:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, so it's been about three years. Yeah. Rotal World's known.

00:11:42
Speaker 1: For player news, for blurbing, you know that, that's like the spots that people go to for their their news, for their fantasy players and such? How has has your job sort of changed the way that you approach fantasy football analysis? From my perspective and having I keeps throwing the word perspective out there, that's a very very apt for the title of this podcast. From my perspective, though, I do think that you have approached the game a little bit differently and the way that your analysis is and what you bring to the table. But I want it from from your mouth. How how has.

00:12:19
Speaker 3: Your game as an analyst change as a result of your job.

00:12:23
Speaker 2: I saw this question on the show sheet and I and I thought about it for a while. I think the I think the best part is that I'm not so bogged down, or I would say the most noticeable part, I'm not so bogged down by like the analytics and I try to working with the news, like understanding how coaches think and talk and act and how players talk connect like that. That does affect the way that you see a certain matchup or a guy's prospects for the season, right, and you just you get a feel. It's it's it's hard to it's hard to explain, it's not quantifiable, but you do get a better feel. I think four players for certain draft strategies that you wouldn't have if you were not like up to your eyeballs and news all day, which I am.

00:13:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the Rotal World tree in general has allowed some folks to really be better than other analysts at sifting through the news and understanding the news.

00:13:20
Speaker 3: I think Adam Levitan is a perfect example.

00:13:22
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, where he's just very very good at being on top of what's going on around the league and and and digesting that in a in an actionable way that others aren't able to do that. You know, he's like, he's better than me at doing that, and.

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Speaker 2: He's so good I'm jealous. I mean, he doesn't even you know, he hasn't worked for Rotor World for years, and he's still is first with these with these blurbs on his Twitter feed. It's amazing, right right exactly.

00:13:45
Speaker 1: And so I do think though, you know, doing living the stream with you, I do think that you've brought a different angle that we didn't really have on the show for a handful of years of just being so on top of what's going on around the league, because that's quite literally your job to be on top I know, it's my job too to some degree. But you know, it's easy to I mean, there's so much information every week right as an analyst that you're trying to digest and and and and look at and analyze that. Of course, there's going to be a random blurb about trade McBride that we miss, right, It's just it's just not possible to.

00:14:16
Speaker 3: Digest all of it.

00:14:18
Speaker 1: But I do think that you've really brought that extra oomph to the analysis and into our other podcasts of course, and it's been really really beneficial and helpful. So the roto World Spectrum and the folks that are coming from NBC Sports and and doing the fantasy analysis there, I do think that they bring just from being there and from working there. I think they bring a certain edge, no pun intended, a certain edge to the fantasy space that might not be seen from other analysts.

00:14:50
Speaker 2: And you know what, there are a lot of news grinders on my on my feed who I feel like they're grinding blurbs by another name. You know, there are a lot of people going through athletic articles, a lot of people going through ESPN articles finding little tidbits, little quotes. I mean, the people are on it okay, Like, so I'm not gonna lie like I'm you know, I do my news shifts. I'm looking for news. Sometimes I'll just come go on Twitter. Oh hey, this guy, this guy just tweeted something that I need, I need to blurb about so people people are all over it, and you can you really can learn a lot. I'll give you one example, Like the Jets recently lost one of their run stuffers, right, and so I wouldn't have known that, like it just naturally, like I'm not like doing doing that sort of research just on my own. So I did that for news, and it turns out the Jets are way worse against the run without this guy. I can't even think of his name, right, but way worse against the run without this guy. And that's good to know. It's something to.

00:15:47
Speaker 3: File away right right exactly.

00:15:49
Speaker 1: And for the record, I think that people might think that you guys are simply looking at Twitter, looking at X and finding what beat writer are tweeting, and you're putting that into indoor blurb. But I would I would ask anyone who's gone to rotal World and such when you're reading blurbs, look at the source. You can see where they're pulling these things from and they're from different newspapers across the internet. They're from the Athletic and from Beat reporters from the Athletic. You guys are reading through a lot of stuff in order to get the the end blurb that everyone sees exactly.

00:16:24
Speaker 2: Yes, that's right. And and sometimes it'll it'll be an incomplete report on Twitter or ex so you have to go find something else to to h to support it, you know, and and uh yeah, so that that can be tough. But the best, JJ, the best is when you find something deep in an article, like when you have like tortured yourself with reading twelve hundred words on the Steelers running game, right, and then at the very bottom there's something blurbable and you're like, hell, yes, I did it. I found I found the thing. It's like digging for gold and you find one little gold nugget and you say, h, Nazie Harris is still bad.

00:16:59
Speaker 1: And by the way, for the record, as I say on the show, each week, we're recording this before the Thursday night game before Fingers crossed for anyone who has Najie Harris before he goes ballistics against the Tennessee defense, which I say that and I immediately regretted saying that because it's more than likely not going to happen.

00:17:16
Speaker 2: I mean, what is ballistic with blistic forty yards and two touchdowns?

00:17:19
Speaker 1: Forty yards and two touchdowns and maybe three targets for Nase tonight would be would be him going ballistic. Yeah, let's talk about some things going on across the league, Denny. The Raiders. The Raiders are down, bad man. They fired Josh McDaniels. They even, you know, DeVante Adams, they can't get him to produce. Is there any hope in your eyes for DeVante Adams to produce rest of season? And I'm gonna go after this, I'm gonna go through some wide receivers. I'm gonna ask you if you would take wide receiver X or DeVante Adams to give people an idea of where you're at.

00:17:51
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:17:52
Speaker 2: So my initial thought on this was can it get worse than it was last week against Detroit? And I don't know if it can. There's also the thing where I know it's a very small sample, but Adams was like like a target dominator with Aidan O'Connell under center. Last time. He played in Week four and Jacoby Myers was basically like not part of the passing attack with Garoppolo. I feel like the the the Garoppolo, Jacoby McDaniel's Triumvirate Patriots triumvirant was like was was annoying at best for Demante Adams and disastrous really at worse for him. And he just wasn't part of the part of the party, you know, like he wasn't invited. Like you, We know you're a generational receiver, you're a Hall of Famer, but you can stay over here. You were not part of the Patriots. We all were. So we're going to do our thing. Now. That's gone. Okay, McDaniels is gone, even though he's gonna be paid for the next four years, which is just tremendous for him. Good for McDaniels, A worker's victory with Josh McDaniels getting fired. I hate I hate myself for saying that, but uh, and then and then you have Garoppolo probably done for the year. So I do think I think Adams will be okay. He was in my regression Files piece this week. I just can't get worse.

00:19:07
Speaker 1: Okay, So let me get let me ask you some wide receivers and see if you would take one of these wide receivers or Devonte Adams. Okay, you ready, DK Metcalf or Devonte Adams Metcalf Okay, Justin Jefferson, who it sounds like he's gonna come back. This isn't like I'm going to shut you down for the rest of the season kind of deal. Justin Jefferson or DeVante Adams. This is a little bit more difficult because obviously the injuries.

00:19:29
Speaker 2: It is it is. I guess I'll go Adams because I'm just skeptical on Jet. I think they're gonna be very careful with Jefferson.

00:19:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's totally fair. Chris a lave or Devanta Adams, who obviously a lave too. I know you do the regression stuff. Chris lave is a massive regression candidate. So would you rather have Chris a Lave or Devanta Adams right now?

00:19:50
Speaker 2: Every week? I mean, Chris LaVey is costing people their families.

00:19:54
Speaker 3: Adams, Adam Thielen or DeVante Adams.

00:19:59
Speaker 2: Adams.

00:20:01
Speaker 1: I'm gonna assume then you're gonna go Adams over DJ Moore, Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. Yes, Yes, well I would assume I would assume that. Let me just ask you straight up, like Christian Kirker, Calvin Ridley, You're going Christian Kirk still the rest of the season.

00:20:16
Speaker 2: Over Ridley, Yes, because Ridley's just not seeing any of those targets that can like smooth over those volatile performances. So it's like all or nothing with this guy.

00:20:29
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, it's a lot more stability with Christian Kirk at this point.

00:20:31
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:20:32
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Kenneth Walker. We saw him lose some snaps a Zach Sharbonay last week. And this is another reason why you guys provide such a great service to fantasy managers is because I think a lot of people would look at that snapshare between Sharboney and Kenneth Walker where Sharboney played more than Kenneth Walker did last week. Walker had three more rush attempts, but but Sharboney was on the field. More people would look at that and say, oh, Kenneth Walker was on the injury report last week, had that kafin Maybe that's the reason why, or just conclude that that's the reason why Sharbonette played in front of him, and I do think that that might play a role to some degree. But Pete Carroll said a lot of positive things about Sharps after that game. He was talking about how he's good at pass protection, how they wanted to get him involved, more like that this was an active thing that they tried to do. What's your read on this situation. Do you think it was the calf injury? Do you think it's just them one to get him involved? Charbonas look good, So maybe this is just the start of something new in that Seattle backfield.

00:21:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, right right. And I would say, first of all, Pete Carroll doesn't care about anything, like like, it doesn't matter that ken Walker was like the clear cut lead back headed into last week. And I do think that the Seahawks generally like to reward good play with more play, and sharbon At was really good on his first like I think it was like four touches last week. I think it was like three carries the reception where he was like bulldozing people and like making, you know, creating a lot of yards after contact. And I think that they were like, Okay, let's just go go with the kid, Let's go with the hot hand right now. And then he ended up running. I was actually just looking it up. Walker only had an eighteen percent route rate. Sharbonay had a fifty three percent. So I think that that's that's a major problem for Walker, Like if that if that sticks, like forget the rushing. I don't know, but if that sticks, that's a huge issue for Walker going forward. Uh So I think I think Walker gets dinged here. Yeah, I'm not gonna lie.

00:22:35
Speaker 1: I mean, I I've taken an l on the way that I viewed this backfield entering the season, because it's been half you know, half the season is over and Kenneth Walker's been in RB one, right, So I definitely kind of kind of looked at this situation incorrectly to start the year because I liked Zach Charboney as a prospect, and I thought logically he did a lot of things that Kenneth Walker couldn't do, so they're gonna use him and Walker sort of in tandem. And so I drafted more Charbonay than kind of this year. I wasn't fading Walker or anything, but I just like Sharbonnay at his value a little bit more. This is kind of what I thought was gonna happen what was more along the lines of what we saw in week eight. With that being said, I think that this organization, and as you mentioned with Pete Carroll, there's so much volatility to the way this coaching staff handles these kinds of situations that I think that it can go in a lot of different directions. So to me, like, would you say that kind of Walker's this like clearcut cell candidate as a result of last week, or are you more of like a this could possibly be the way that they kind of divvy things up, maybe favoring Walker a little bit more moving forward, and chances are he's still not a full blown cell because it's still.

00:23:46
Speaker 3: Kind of they could still go back to where how they were using him before.

00:23:48
Speaker 2: I think it's definitely I'm going to use a cop out term that we always use in the industry, it's in the range of outcomes that Walker just gets back to his normal role. Okay, yeah, yeah, but it is. I you know, I do believe that it is the thing about selling about trading away Walker right now, is that your team, I'm sorry, your league mates know what happened last week, you know, like like maybe maybe they don't know about the the the route running splits or whatever like that's that's another thing that's like a layer deeper. But they know that, like Sharbonay made kind of a mess of this backfield last week, so you probably can't get I don't think you can get a whole lot for Walker at the moment, so I would be hesitant to trade him away.

00:24:32
Speaker 1: Let's say, let's say that we would trade him away if you could get a pre week eight price tag.

00:24:37
Speaker 3: Would that be fair?

00:24:38
Speaker 2: Yeah? I would. I would very much consider that idea.

00:24:41
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah.

00:24:42
Speaker 1: So what we're both saying basically is that Sharbone is probably going to see some role moving forward, a bigger role than what he had before. But it doesn't mean that Kenneth Walker becomes obsolete and often.

00:24:53
Speaker 2: No, I don't think, and I think he'll probably be more of a boom bus guy because you know, he breaks off the long runs and whatnot. Yeah, but if he doesn't get those long runs then and he doesn't get the pass catching work, then we're talking bad a bad spot.

00:25:08
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:25:08
Speaker 1: Another backfield that's sort of muddied right now because of what we saw with Jamior Gibbs. When David Montgomery has been sidelined over the last couple of weeks is that Detroit Lions backfield Gibbs has look great over the last couple of weeks. This Monday night, he looked amazing, right like he he. This is exactly what we dreamed of from a fantasy asset when they drafted him, you know, twelfth overall back back in the during the draft. And so you have David Montgomery. They're on by right now. They're on bye this week, so they're playing Xbox right now.

00:25:37
Speaker 3: They're hanging out.

00:25:38
Speaker 1: That's that's probably what they do during the buys and so right right, and so maybe maybe the new Super Mario game, which is great. By the way, I'm not even I'm not even getting sponsored by Nintendo, but man, that new Mario game is fun.

00:25:51
Speaker 2: What is it? What is this new game?

00:25:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, just check. It's just a new new uh Super Mario Brothers game.

00:25:56
Speaker 1: And it's a side scrolling you know, like a like like like like the historical ones, the ones back in the day, and it's just got a little bit more to it because you can put more in games these days. I know that you haven't played video games since nineteen eighty nine.

00:26:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's actually true, except for we golf, of course.

00:26:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, of course.

00:26:14
Speaker 1: Anyway, this Detroit backfield, you got Jamior Gibbs playing really, really well. You got David Montgomery obviously destroying before he went down with that injury. What's going to happen in this backfield? Are you buying both? Are you buying only Gibbs? Are you buying Montgomery? What the heck is going on? Because Montgomery sounds like he's going to be back after the bye this week.

00:26:31
Speaker 2: He's going to be back. You know, I I have trouble thinking that Dan Campbell will go as far as saying like Montgomery's back, he's our guy. If he can't do it, no one can that sort of thing. I mean, you know, so I don't. I don't think that he is going to go back to exactly the way it was before the Montgomery rib injury. But I do think that, you know, Gibbs will go back to like a one B sort of role. It's just the way that they view him like it was. I'm not comparing him to Jamal Charles, the greatest running back of all time, but I am saying that this happens with like smaller explosive running backs where teams are just hesitant to give them a full workload. They just don't want to do that, and so you got to accept it. Now. I think both are startable. Both will will be startable going forward. Hopefully Gibbs gets a lot of you know, past catching work and that that would be cool. He can break off some long, you know, long plays that way. But Montgomery coming back is he's not going to be holding the clipboard or anything right.

00:27:37
Speaker 1: Right, the way that I viewed it, and I talked about this on my Mailbag episode, the way that I viewed it or currently view it, is that Montgomery, when he was active, Jamior Gibbs was seeing like a twenty five percent running back rush air per game, and all the while he was seeing you know, decent enough target share but not super super high. Without Montgomery, that target share has been over twenty percent per game. He's seeing a crazymount of running back rushes. What I could see happening is Gibbs maybe going from twenty five percent of the team's running back rushes to thirty five to forty percent of the team's running back rushes, right, and then instead of a twenty twenty one percent target chair, maybe in that thirteen to fifteen percent range, which if you're seeing a thirteen percent target chair per game and a good offense like Jamior Gibbs would hypothetically be seeing, and you're getting thirty five percent of the team's running back rushes, which would equate to I don't know, maybe like eight or nine rushes a game, maybe ten in good positive game scripts. That's definitely going to be usable, especially in PPR formats like you're saying.

00:28:34
Speaker 3: And then the other piece of this.

00:28:35
Speaker 1: I just want to throw out there, they have one of the cakeest schedules for running backs moving forward, so that in addition, could could really help both these guys be fantasy relevant.

00:28:45
Speaker 2: At the same time, you know, hey, Detroit wants to be run heavy, Like let's just acknowledge that. Like this is they don't want to be balanced. They want to be run heavy. They definitely don't want to be pass first. In five of eight games they've been below their expected drop back rate twenty first in pass raight over expected. So when when they can establish the hell out of it, they're doing that, and you know, that could fuel the kind of volume that Gibbs would need, you know, Like so that if Montgomery sees fifteen eighteen carries. Gibbs can still get maybe ten ten carries and some targets, and you know, can see what he can do with that.

00:29:21
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this on the spot, both totally healthy, who are you taking rest of season?

00:29:25
Speaker 3: Jamier Gibbs or David Montgomery.

00:29:28
Speaker 2: I mean, I know it sounds like a boomer answer, but I'd go with Montgomery because he's still going to get all the goal line work.

00:29:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that I'm leaning that way too, but I think it's a lot closer than it was, you know, two weeks ago. Within that backfield. Let's move to another backfield. This is a Newsy type thing. I feel like is the Colts backfield because Jonathan Taylor was destroying in the first half last week and then seemingly just didn't get used in the second half. Like, what's going on with that backfield? DoD they just hate Jonathan Taylor despite bring him back with his deal.

00:30:02
Speaker 2: You know, I actually covered that game for NBC, and I was perplexed, to say the least, because, let me tell you, like I studied the film, why I I I looked at the analytics and Taylor Taylor was on his way to two hundredrushing yards. Yeah yeah, okay, like that that was that was going to happen if he got twenty carries. Uh, he was shredding the Saints. The only thing I can come up with JJ is that the Colts have him on a strict pitch count and that's it, like like he has a certain number of either rushes or snaps and and they're they're going to Zach Moss. There's also the issue though, that Zach Moss, as you know, has been really good.

00:30:47
Speaker 3: I know, yeah, you.

00:30:49
Speaker 2: Know, if he would falter a little bit, I think that that could crack the door open for Taylor to take over as the one A. But he hasn't. Zach Moss is doing really well, and in fact, he leads the entire league in rushing since Week two. So you know, it's it's tough.

00:31:04
Speaker 1: Makes you question why the Colts decided to go this route when they had a legitimate running back on their team at the time.

00:31:11
Speaker 2: And it does make you wonder. I am wondering very strongly about why they didn't just roll with Zeg Moss.

00:31:17
Speaker 1: So do you think do you think Jonathan Taylor is going to maintain sort of what we've seen over the last maybe a couple weeks. Maybe not like obviously when he first came back, but what we've seen over the last couple of weeks, or do you think that it'll still sort of start to favor him a little bit more down the stretch in that backrould.

00:31:32
Speaker 2: Honestly, like if it didn't happen last week, I struggled to see it happening going forward unless mosquets banged up or really starts to struggle. But there's been no indication the Zach Moss. And I know it's been a long time since Sachmoss was good, but at one point Zach mos was actually good and then he I think he suffered a concussion with the Bills. He really wasn't the same after they he got banged up again with something else, lower body thing, and then Singletary took over. So I do think think it just might be the case where Moss is a good running back.

00:32:03
Speaker 3: I didn't think he was that bad of a prospect.

00:32:05
Speaker 1: I remember when he came out one of his comps for I think a lot of people, but it was at least one of the comps, you know. The way that I look at comps is I'm looking at multiple instead of just one, because I don't think one really helps you get a full picture about a player. If you have multiple, multiple comps that are all favorable, that's a really good sign for that prospect. With Zach Moss, he had some bad ones, I think, but there was one was Kareem Hunt for Moss. And we're kind of seeing that kind of ceiling from Moss right now in this offense. And like you said, it's not easy to just dismiss that and say we're gonna use Jonathan.

00:32:40
Speaker 3: Not only that, the Colts going to.

00:32:42
Speaker 1: The playoffs and making noise in the playoffs not likely, right, And so what would be the point for them to just drive Jonathan Taylor into the ground when this is not their win now season, This isn't the season where they're really gonna go for it. I think it can help the offense. You know, I'm not one of those believers. It's just like teams are just gonna sit all their stars because they don't care about winning this year that they're professionals, they care about winning.

00:33:07
Speaker 3: The players want to play all of that stuff. You can't.

00:33:10
Speaker 1: You really need to not overstate sort of that aspect of things. But at the same time, when you have a capable player like Zach Moss on that roster, I think it's gonna limit Jonathan Taylor's ceiling to some degree rest of season. I still think Taylor can be like a high end RB two because the landscape is so rough, But like you know, at the same time, it's it's not the most cut and dry situation in the world because Jonathan because it's Jonathan Taylor, because he's supposed to just be good.

00:33:39
Speaker 2: One more note on this indie backfield. Last week, Taylor ran fifty three percent of the routes and most only ran twenty two percent. And you know, this is a Colts team that is going to be chasing points, you know, more often than not, I think, And although they seem to want to be balanced or even run heavy, I don't think that they'll be able to do that. If that's the case and Taylor take it, takes on the primary pass catching roll out of the backfield, could be good for him.

00:34:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, which is something that we really haven't seen from Jonathan Taylor historically. He's always been like a nine to ten percent target share guy. And if he's going to be a thirteen fourteen percent target shair guy, that's really really big news. And I said this on the Sleeper Show this week. Rich reebar Buddy. He sent tweets out earlier this week about how Colts games have been insane shootouts almost every single week.

00:34:27
Speaker 3: Yes, just crazy.

00:34:28
Speaker 1: I mean they have the second highest game totals game total average this season, behind only Miami.

00:34:34
Speaker 3: It's crazy.

00:34:35
Speaker 2: Wowah crazy lot lots of plays. By the way, if you look at the plays that they're giving up and the number of plays they run on offense, it's it's like seventy plus every week.

00:34:44
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:34:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, they have their leading the league in total plays run per game, not just on their side, but the whole environment, both sides.

00:34:51
Speaker 3: It's just it's a really really good environment for scoring.

00:34:55
Speaker 1: And I think that, combined with the Colts having such a poor, you know, not the best defense in the world, means that Jonathan Taylor could see these negative game scripts and that's where I think the value is gonna come from.

00:35:05
Speaker 3: More.

00:35:06
Speaker 1: And we have to remember this goes back to the Jamier Gibbs stuff. Have to remember targets are more valuable than rush attempts, a lot more valuable, especially PPR formats. You're talking like two and a half x in terms of value. So if Jonathan Taylor is seeing you know, a fifty fifty five percent route participation, that's very very strong because we know that he can be really efficient on those targets and on those routes.

00:35:27
Speaker 2: There you go, I think we just we cracked the case, JJ, we figured it out.

00:35:30
Speaker 3: Yes, all right, let's talk about quarterback.

00:35:32
Speaker 1: We talk about quarterbacks every week on Living the Stream, but we never talk about good quarterbacks. We always talk about very very bad quarterbacks, like like Baker Mayfield and Josh Dobbs and Taylor Heineke. Those are the kind of quarterbacks that we've talked about a lot through the years. So let's just talk about a good quarterback for once. Let's talk about Patrick Mahomes right now. Mahomes has nineteen and a half points per game. He's never been below twenty and a half points per game since becoming starter in Kansas City. Denny, how concerned are you?

00:36:06
Speaker 2: I'm kind of concerned. And you know, I think that the Chiefs defense being like either pretty good or sometimes elite this season has been a problem for fantasy purposes, not just for Mahomes. But for everybody, you know, I know Kelsey has some like nuclear performances that are single handling one your week. So I'm not saying anything about him really, but like as far as Mahomes, and then like the secondary and tertiary options in this casey offense, like their prospects are dinged big time by the Chiefs being an actually good team. And sometimes if you look at the drop back rate over expected for the Chiefs, sometimes they're balanced. They're balanced. It's crazy, like this is something we never saw. There were consistently like plus twelve, plus fifteen, plus twenty. Sometimes that's not happening as much this year, and and so it's hurting. It's hurting Mahomes and everybody except for Kelsey.

00:37:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, this is definitely skewed a little bit because of their Denver matchups. But KSE a quartering to my adj justin fantasy points allowed numbers. I'm looking at it right now. KSE has had the second easiest schedule at quarterback to start the season. And I also what I do with these adjusted numbers is I'll often look at how well these are where these guys would rank if you adjust for schedule right. So, right now, if you look at the quarterback stuff, Buffalo as a team ranks first in quarterback scoring when you adjust for schedule. Number two is the Chargers for you know, Justin Herbert. Number three is the Eagles with Jalen Hurts. Kansas City Denny is eleventh. Right now when you look at their schedules so far and how they've actually performed and moving forward, KC has the this is really good podcasting. They have the twenty seventh best schedule for quarterbacks from now through the end of the year. In the short term, it's pretty good.

00:37:58
Speaker 3: Now.

00:37:59
Speaker 1: I earlier season mentioned Mahomes as a bye because they went through a stretch which they've kind of gone through where they face pretty easy matchups, and the problem is he hasn't really come through last week being one of the key ones where we all thought that he had a chance to go nuts and he didn't even throw a touchdown Paskins Denver, and so I think that there's definitely a problem. Just in general from a fantasy perspective, I think Kansas City is set up well because the defense is playing well, and you know, Mahomes is still Mahomes and it's still Mahomes, so we know that, you know, a ceiling is possible every single week with a player like that. I'm not calling him like the QB seven in fantasy football from here on out, but I do think that there should be some concern based on how he's performed with the schedule that he's seen.

00:38:46
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at at pass fantasy points over expected right now, and Mahomes is not in the top twelve. Yeah, so it's he has not been the efficient usual Mahomes. I mean he's like in like the uh sorry Lamar well, Lamars in that area Anthony Richardson, justin fields like that area as far as passing expected points over expected or points over expected anyway, long story short, I think there is some reason to worry. Obviously, you have to start him every week, but if you drafted Mahomes, you're you're in a dark place. I think.

00:39:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the first week of the season that I had in my rest of season rankings, I had Lamar Jackson ahead of Patrick Mahomes rest of season, and I felt I felt fine about it. It wasn't really that difficult of a choice. After what we saw this past week. You look at the schedules. You know, I talked about adjusting performance in Baltimore's fifth right now and adjusted fantasy points scored at quarterback this season, So I don't think it's that that crazy of a choice to say I would rather take the upside of Lamar Jackson in this offense than Patrick Mahomes in the way that he's been performing.

00:39:58
Speaker 2: And Mahomes, by the way, is adding like an unusual number of rushing points because he's doing that dad run out of the pocket when when no one's open and no one's no one's open because they have the worst receiving core in the entire league. Maybe rough, Yeah, I mean it's bad, like Sky Moore, like shouldn't even be on the roster at this point. It's it's horrific.

00:40:19
Speaker 3: I've seen.

00:40:20
Speaker 1: Sorry, I was just gonna say, I've seen the analysis and the take. I know that like next Gen Stats does like a target separation thing for wide receivers, but it's at the point of a target, so it'll it'll say how far a player a wide receiver is from a defender at the point of a target, and and the case wide receivers from that perspective actually look okay, So before anyone comes at us and says they actually haven't been bad, you have to keep in mind that kind of data doesn't really tell.

00:40:48
Speaker 3: The whole story at all.

00:40:49
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's only when they're targeted, and a player like Patrick Mahomes, who's very very good at football, is more than likely going to extend plays and such and find an open receiver. So if the receivers open, they're gonna look better within that kind of metric.

00:41:02
Speaker 2: I mean, just yeah, right, And what I'm saying about the rushing is that he's tacking on some unexpected rushing production, like you didn't draft him for that reason, and he's still he's still a little bit disappointing. I mean, he's on pace for almost five hundred rushing yards this year. It looks like he's usually around three hundred just is through his time in Kansas City. So that would you know, that would be that would be pretty big. It's just the the passing game is not what we're used to.

00:41:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, Denny, what are the vibes around Kyler Murray?

00:41:34
Speaker 3: Right now?

00:41:35
Speaker 1: That's been one that just seems seems like it kind of came out of nowhere where they were just like, yeah, he's gonna he's he's he's good, he's healthy. Now we're gonna activate him. And I mean, is he gonna play this weekend? Like what sounds like Clayton Tune is is probably gonna be the guy. But is Kyler Murray gonna see some action? Is he gonna be someone that we're gonna rely on in fantasy football down the stretch?

00:41:56
Speaker 2: I think it's possible range of outcomes. Yeah, yeah, But Jonathan Gannon is all over the place with the quarterback thing, because like like we talked about the other day, like Gannon comes out and says, no, no, Josh Jobbs is our starter for sure, and then like fifteen minutes later, it's like I've I've watched the tape and I'm benching Dobbs. And then they trade him fifteen minutes after that, No, that's just unnecessary. And then and then so then well, okay, it's Clayton Tune's job. But Kyler looks great, looks explosive, he's ready to go. He's learning the offense. But he probably won't ever play, but he could play this week you know, And you're like, I'm what's going what's happening? And now that the trade deadline is coming gone, and there was some you know, scuttle butt about Kyler being being dealt. I do think that we're going to see him, probably not this week, but but the following.

00:42:47
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:42:48
Speaker 1: I have some hesitation about him really letting loose and running, and that's really what we want from a player like Kyler. It's not like you have amazing weapons there. I'm hopeful that Michael Wilson can become something down the stretch in Fantasy and obviously Hollywood I think is a really underrated wide receiver. But it's kind of hard for me to think that he's going to be a top five quarterback in Fantasy coming off this acl.

00:43:13
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I mean, look, I for some reason, I don't know why. I don't know if I told you this. I ended up with a lot of Kyler Murrao at Best Ball teams. I don't know.

00:43:23
Speaker 1: We're open, you're, you're, you're, you're praying that he's I'm pretty hopeful.

00:43:28
Speaker 2: And on the a lot of these teams, I lost Anthony Richardson. So we need you, we need you back, Kyler, we need you in a bad way. Top five. I don't think that that's happened.

00:43:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think yeah, but QB QB yeah, exactly, top ten, like QB six, QB ten.

00:43:41
Speaker 3: I could see that happening.

00:43:42
Speaker 1: And in this landscape, I will take that all day because it is not an easy quarterback landscape right now.

00:43:47
Speaker 2: So no, oh, it's horrible. Yeah. I mean if you have a starting quarterback in like fourteen teen league, you're feeling pretty good.

00:43:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, just a lot going on in the position.

00:43:56
Speaker 1: All right, Denny, you do a lot of work with kickers, and I need to talk to you about kickers because this might be the first time on the in the Late Round podcast feed that I have talked about kickers. I get questions about kickers though throughout the season. I give them a very brief process. But you're a kicker guy. You've been writing and analyzing kickers for years now. I'm the person who doesn't even know which kickers on which team throughout the season because I barely play in leagues with kickers these days. So tell the people what kind of process they should be going through when selecting a kicker each week.

00:44:32
Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you for highlighting the plight of the kicker analyst. First of all, I started this mostly as a bit and then it just took off. And it turns out people were hungry. They were starving for kicker content and analysis. So I got super into it. I went to I Did I ever tell you that I once had a podcast dedicated exclusively to kickers? I don't.

00:44:55
Speaker 3: I didn't know that existed.

00:44:56
Speaker 2: Yeah. It was a twenty five minute podcast back in like two thousand fourteen, and h Russell Clay, I think you know from online. He he hosted it and I would just talk kickers. It was amazing.

00:45:08
Speaker 1: And what was it called? Was there was there a name? Can anyone go back and listen to it now?

00:45:12
Speaker 2: I think it was called Kicking It possib Wow.

00:45:14
Speaker 3: What an awesome name for a show.

00:45:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh man, And we were we would grind the data, let me tell you. But yeah, I mean, but you know, it's it's not It's not like some some huge secret. You know. I don't have like a like a secret algorithm that I that I use every week. You just you want kickers who will be in positions where they will be able to kick field goals throughout the game. And what I mean by that is you don't want to get a guy on a team that's that's an underdog by five or six or eight points whatever, and whose team is probably going to be chasing points in the second half and foregoing field goal attempts. Okay, so you know we and we see that every week. You know, that team has fourth and two from the twenty and they decided to go for it because they need points instead of going for the field goal. That's you know, and that that that's the sort of thing that crushes your upside with with kickers where they only get two quarters of actually being able to kick field goals. Anyway, you want kickers with positive or neutral game script. And also teams that are allowing a lot of pass yards tend to allow a lot of field goal opportunity. And all you want our attempts. Don't focus don't focus on the long kicks. Okay, I don't want to hear about this guy's kicking in Denver. So it'll so you know he can make that sixty yarder. Who that's that's a that's horrible process. It's the worst process ever. Don't worry about field goals, long field goals. You just want attempts. And so that's what we're looking for.

00:46:39
Speaker 3: Do you care about how good the kicker actually is?

00:46:43
Speaker 2: No, but only to an extent. Okay, Like you get into like the seventy to seventy five percent range of conversion and that gets a little dicey. Okay, So I'm not going to go out and like recommend a kicker who's who is only making like seventy percent of their kicks this season. It makes me hesitant on guy like Blake Groupie from New Orleans. Okay, who I know? You know? You knew that guy existed.

00:47:08
Speaker 1: I actually the only reason I do is because I picked him up in the league this week. And now I'm a little bit scared. I'm not even joking. I know that people come to me and they're like, you must know this answer because you have this really process oriented analytical podcast. And I'm telling all of you right now, I know absolutely nothing about kickers in the league, nothing, absolutely nothing. I just know their names that I hear through the broadcast. I'm not even like associating the names with teams at this point. It's just they're they're they're so irrelevant.

00:47:35
Speaker 3: In my brain.

00:47:35
Speaker 1: I'm sure they're great guys, but I'm not analyzing them right.

00:47:39
Speaker 2: So he's a group. He's making eighty percent of his kicks this year, so we have that going for us. He should be fine. But it does. I do get a little bit scared off at some point, but mostly no, I don't I don't care. I don't care. And there are times when I'll recommend a kicker who makes only two of his four attempts. But the process, the process, the process.

00:47:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, if you're going it's it's no different than going after targets. I'm assuming and such, right, yes, exactly, yeah, all right, Denny, before I let you go, give me one by candidate in fantasy football right now, and then also give me one cell candidate in fantasy football.

00:48:14
Speaker 2: Okay, so this may be, you know, a little bit of a cheap, cheap one. And I know you mentioned him on your fifteen Transactions podcast earlier this week. DK Metcalf is just he's just running cold, like everything is super cold, Like all of the peripheral stuff is there, okay, Like he's getting every opportunity you could want, all the air yards, all the targets, all the high value targets like inside the twenty, inside the ten. The Seahawks offense in general, I think is bound to regress in a good way, in a positive way, because they are elite on early downs, like their EPA is up there with like Kansas City and the Bills. That's it's third and fourth down with a real struggling right And if they can figure that out, and I think that they can because they they did last year. If they can figure that out, I think that metcalf and and others in that offense could really regress and and be and be good bye candidates at the moment. I mean as for as for like guys you wanna wanna ditch like like before they before they turn into pumpkins. I mean, I don't know Joe Mixon after his week last week, you know, I don't think that that continues. I know that he's the only game in town in the Cincinnati backfield. But like, if you can, if you can get something for him, I think that you can. You should do that this week before things you fall apart again, and they will. They will because he's so inefficient. He's such an inefficient runner.

00:49:47
Speaker 1: As you know, is there is there a running back in fantasy football that's decent at gaining getting fantasy points that's talked about less than Joe Mixon right now.

00:49:56
Speaker 3: Like, like, I'm not saying that he's like an RB one.

00:49:58
Speaker 1: I'm just saying like he you know, he's getting fantasy points obviously because he's the only back that they're really using back there.

00:50:03
Speaker 3: But is there.

00:50:04
Speaker 1: Anyone like I have not seen a single article on Joe Mixon hit my feed or anyone talk about Joe Mixon in a year and a half.

00:50:14
Speaker 2: The only time I've heard it is when I went on the Fantasy Football Happy Hour last week and I said, Hey, Joe Mixon could be in a good spot against the Niners, and that was it. The mainstream media won't talk about it.

00:50:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very bizarre because he's obviously in an offense that's that's turning it up. I think that would be an interesting sell just because people might buy into that environment right now, right, you know, because things are really going in the right direction for them.

00:50:39
Speaker 3: Right right right.

00:50:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's another thing you have going like Burrows healthy, Like this offense is humming. They've made the Niners look silly. So this is the only chance I think you're going to get or the last chance, I should say, to get something for mix in if you can do that, that's.

00:50:54
Speaker 3: An interesting one for sure. Denny.

00:50:56
Speaker 1: It was great to finally do a podcast with you wanting to do one for years and years now. Jokes aside. Let everyone know where they can find you and find your work.

00:51:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, at CD Carter thirteen on the X Machine. You can find all my work on NBC Sports, slash Rod the World. I actually wrote a piece today on pass funnel and run funnel defenses and what that data could mean for week nine, so check that out.

00:51:22
Speaker 1: And I'm on Twitter on x at late round QB. You can find all my workover on lateround dot com and as always everyone, thanks for tuning in