489: Mailbag 3/12/21

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at Fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode four hundred and eighty nine of the Late Round Podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Travis Etn had his pro day on Thursday, and he weighed in at two hundred and fifteen pounds. That was like ten to fifteen pounds more than I expected. I plugged that new weight into my model and Bam Etn became the RB one in the model, ahead of Davante Williams and Naji Harris. Now I tweeted about this change, and I had some responses from people who were confused. One person mentioned that it seems crazy that ten pounds could change someone's rank that much, and someone else mentioned that they had thought that. I said that Naji Harris met all the requirements in my model, so I would Harris be the RB one. So let me address those things before getting into the questions this week, because I think that they're both valid questions. First off, with modeling, we're working with the information that we have, I'm not able to weigh Travis Etn every day of his life to see how his weight fluctuates, and I can't do that with every other running back. I have to use the same process for him that I use for everyone else, and that process has shown to matter. Now, is there a subjective red flag in my mind about Travis Etn's weight? Yeah, sort of. There have been interviews with Etn where he talks about playing in the two hundred to two hundred and ten pound range, and that's less favorable than the two hundred and fifteen pound waeh in. But my model has him where it has him because that's the information that we have, and BMI does matter for running backs. I'll talk about that with a question later on to the question about Najie Harris. If you listen to the show a handful of weeks ago, then you heard that Harris was the one running back who hit every threshold for my model and how it relates to successful NFL running backs. Basically, on that show, I called Naji Harris my RB one. I still likely will have Harris as my RB one. It's not like he's far off from Etn. And Javonte Williams. My model right now and draft capital is gonna determine a lot. But keep in mind, if you listen to that episode on which draft hopeful running backs produced like studs in college, I was only referring to thresholds that were being hit by these players. Travis Etn didn't hit a touchdown share threshold that NFL studs typically hit, But in my model, it's not binary. It's not he hits this or he didn't hit this. Etn's touchdown share number really wasn't that bad, so it didn't knock him that much for being lower than the stud average in that category. Now, if you didn't listen to that episode, none of that probably makes sense, So go back and listen to it. I demand you. So if you had questions about ETN after seeing my tweet, I hope this clears things up. As always, my model is a guide for me. I don't blindly rank off of it. Actually, when prospects are ranked incredibly close in the model, before get into the questions. This week, March Madness is almost underway, and there's no better place to bet on college basketball than with FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, Fandel is offering college basketball parlay insurance place a five plus leg parlay on college basketball, and if you hit on all of the legs except for one, you get up to twenty five dollars back in cite credit. So go check it out over at Fandel Sportsbook. Must be twenty one years or older in president of Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. First online real money wager only refund issue does not withdrawable site credit that expires in fourteen days. Restrictions apply c full terms at sportsbook dot fandle dot com. Gambling problem called one hundred five to two forty seven hundred in Colorado, one hundred bets off in Iowa, one one hundred nine with it in Indiana one one hundred two seven zero seven to one to one seven for confidential health of Michigan. One in hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia, Tennessee redline one hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine, or visit one hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. That's a mouthful. Let's get to these questions. This first question says, can you give us your thoughts on the Lions wide receiver situation and how it would affect TJ. Hockinson. Yeah. I mean, look, I think it's pretty straightforward. At the moment, the Lions are very thin at wide receiver and they're most definitely in rebuild mode. Hawkinson is currently the only reliable pass catcher on that team. So at the moment, we're looking at a really strong target share for TJ. Hockinson in twenty twenty one, and that's not really dependent upon what they do from here through the rest of the offseason, Like they're going to take a player or two from this loaded wide receiver class, I'm sure, But even that, given the fact that they'll be rookies, even that shouldn't hinder Hawkinson's target share potential all that much. The real issue for a player like Hockinson or really anyone else in the Lions is the fact that they're probably not going to be very good. That offense has a lot of potential issues, and when offenses are bad, that generally comes with poor fantasy results. Now I'm not saying I'm fading Hawkinson or DeAndre Swift. I don't really know now where I stand with them in terms of redraft, but I do think that the Lions could be pretty bad this year, and that'll turn me off of those guys in some way, even if volume is there. This as questions from at Dean zero toll one. In a lot of your podcasts, you touched lightly on college players declare early or late and say this is a pro and or con. Are you able to expand on this? Please keep up the great work. Thanks. Yeah. So, at wide receiver especially, there's data that suggests that being in early declare is good. My friend Rich Rebar from Sharp Football Analysis dot com, who I reference all the time on the show, he did a study last offseason on this that really shed some light at the wide receiver position. In particular. He showed that of round one wide out selected over the last ten years, the hit rate for early declares versus non early declares it was very evident. According to his data, we haven't seen a non early declare have a wide receiver one season when they represent over twenty six percent of the sample. Meanwhile, now forty of the early declaress who were drafted in the first round they had a wide receiver one season in fantasy. So I touch on that because it matters, especially a wide receiver, and I think it makes sense if a player is declaring early, that means he likely produced at a younger age, and when you produce at a younger age, you're likely just more talented. Players coming out early are just naturally more talented than players who need that extra year. This that's questions from at steven zero one to eight. Do you change your quarterback rankings relative to one another in a two quarterback slash superflex league versus a one quarterback league? So I think this may sound like a weird question to some of you, since you're still scoring points the same way at quarterback no matter how many quarterbacks you're starting. But I think it's a good question. I'd say that my rankings don't dramatically change, but I do strive more for that ambiguity when I get to late round quarterbacks and single quarterback leagues. Maybe Jalen Hurts isn't the best example, because I draft him in both formats, but we're at least a little bit unsure as that how he'll perform next year, and we don't know for sure if Philly's going to draft a quarterback or do something that would hinder Hurts his ability to start. Hurts is someone who then may be more attractive in a single quarterback league than a two quarterback one, because it's easier to make up for a dud in a single quarterback league. Again, I think that Jalen Hurts is a great pick no matter the format next year. This is just an example, but I think I tolerate more QB two types and superflex leagues than I would in a single quarterback league because I'm leaning more into the is he gonna have the starting job for the whole year side of things. You want a little bit more safety in a super flex league, just naturally, but overall, I don't think that's gonna really drastically change my rankings, regardless of the league type and structure. This last question from at what the Chain, what do you think about using in game speed scores instead of combined forty yard dash data? Yeah? I mean, look, forty yard dash data on its own is not very meaningful. I don't use anything for time related to my wide receiver model, and I only have a speed score threshold that players need to hit in my running back model. That's it. That's the extent of it. Now. Earlier this week, NFL Network Cynthia Freeland she tweeted about how game speed was way more predictive for NFL wide receivers than forty times. She noted that sub four four one forty times don't equate to more separation or a higher reception, first down or touchdown rate in the NFL, and then she went on to say that quote far more predictive is college speed and pads by route, and best indicator of success was speed post catch. I haven't found a whole lot of signal with forty times. I've talked about that a lot on this show in the past. The issue is that data to get game speed, as far as I know, isn't widely available, so it's tougher to use that data. If I had the data, I would love to use it. This best questions from at Will Harper six' one four thoughts On Gabriel. Davis can he become a top twenty four wide receiver next season For? Buffalo? So John brown was released By buffalo On, wednesday which really is going to Elevate Gabriel davis if The bills don't add another wide receiver this. Offseason davis really saw his workload uptick When John brown was an active last. Year Rich, reebar WHO i referenced, earlier he sent a tweet on On wednesday noting That davis ran a route on two hundred and eighty nine of two hundred and ninety eight dropbacks Without John brown last. Season so he's a. Starter we should expect him to be on the field a lot if nothing else. Changes can he be a top twenty four wide? Receiver, yeah he can. BE i think that's at least in his range of. Outcomes The bills really targeted their wide receivers at a high rate last. Year almost seventy five percent of the team's targets went to wide. Receivers that was first in THE nfl in seconds since twenty. Eleven there's likely some regression to come from, that but the offensive sort of build around that. Position SO i do think that we should be Giving Gabriel davis a lot of love as a, value Though i'm sure HIS adp is about to. Rise this has questions an email and, says, HEY, jj what your thoughts ON cech for twenty twenty. One the expectations for him were huge and probably, unrealistic but it seems that he was in a perfect situation and did not perform as well as most thought he. SHOULD i understand he got injured at one, point but for a guy who was the team's first round picking that, offense do you think his early career is showing red? Flags Thanks, Jeremy i'm not really that worried About. Cech he saw fifty four percent of the team's running back rushes after playing just thirteen, games which is a pro rated running back rush are of sixty six, percent which IS i think right in line with expectation given his size and how we projected him to be used in THE, Nfl and then had he maintained his target share pace through sixteen, games you're looking at the eleven percent target. Share those numbers are totally, fine especially in This chiefs. Offense his big issue is that he couldn't find the end. Zone he had fifteen carries from within the ten and he scored, once and that one touchdown came at the goal, line where he had nine goal line. Rushes some will say that he's just, undersize so he's just not going to be a good goal line. Back BUT i see that as a number that he can improve. On and he ranked above the fiftieth percentile among one hundred plus attempt runners and percentage of rushes that went ten or more. Yards BUT i will say he did lack big play explosion in year. One his twenty plus yard run rate was more in the twentieth. Percentile but, OVERALL i don't think his backfield share numbers and how he performed numbers, WISE i don't think it was all that, bad and he looked really good at. Times he just was kind of. Inconsistent expectations were just insanely. HIGH i almost feel like he went from a tough player to draft and buy into because of that cost all the way to one who can now be a discount because of those high. Expectations this's questions from At Lady Gaga. Disco what's your opinion On Terras marshall good breakout age in college, dominator but bad age adjusted production every. Year but he played With chase And. Jefferson i'm very torn on. Him, Yeah SO i talked About marshall and the Wide Receiver prospect, episode And i'm into. Him as you, mentioned he played with really good competition in, college and if you look at what he did this past, year had he finished the, season he would have had really good. Production and the other thing here is. Size there are a lot of wide receivers in this class who run the risk of just being a slock guy and that can limit. Upside but With, marshall even though he played a lot in the slot this past year When Justin jefferson, left he has experience all over the field and that makes me more bullish on him and his ceiling than some of the other big producers who projected to just be slot. Receivers the last question this week is for my buddy At Davis, maddick what do you make of a guy Like Puka williams with a level production but bad. Size. Yeah, so earlier in the WEEK i talked through wide RECEIVER bmi AND i gave my thoughts on that. TOPIC i didn't talk about running BACK. Bmi NOW i did earlier in this episode when talking About travis etn and how it does. Matter but running BACK bmi matters a lot more in my model than wide RECEIVER bmi. Does generally, speaking small running backs they don't can consistently give us Strong fantasy. Production So Puka williams weighing in at one hundred and seventy five pounds during his pro day not. Great WHEN i input everything into my, Model he's not looking good heading into the. Draft there's almost zero chance that he's going to hit the eightieth percentile threshold THAT i like to see running backs hit in my, model and it's just not something that we. See since two, thousand only one running back who weighed one hundred and seventy five pounds or less has given us more than thirty fantasy. Points according to a statthead dot com query THAT i ran one running. Back one running back has given us more than thirty P pr points in a single season at one hundred and seventy five pounds or, less and that was Dexter. Mcluster now you may be thinking THAT i just did WHAT i said not to do on the Wide RECEIVER bmi episode Because i'm just looking at the numerator, here not the. Denominator and that's. True but considering number ONE bmi seems to matter more at running back and number Two puka isn't even the best prospect in my model with that kind of. Weight over the last decade or. So that's Why i'm not into. Him and you could even consider this even If Pooka williams is some, outlier WHICH i don't think he is compared to like A DeVante smith at wide. Receiver but even if he's some, outlier then you're still taking on that. Risk there's still a risk. Involved maybe draft capital will help, him BUT i think there's a small chance that he ends up being fantasy. Relevant that's gonna do it for today's, show. Though thanks to all of you for. Listening if you've got subscribed to The Late round, podcast make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found and dot forget to follow me On twitter At Late ROUND. Qb thanks for listening. EVERYONE i hope you enjoy your weekend AND i will talk to you next week