581: 10 Trends for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha J J. Zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at Fandel and at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred and eighty one of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Fandal is giving you the opportunity to bet on Week eleven of the NFL season. All you have to do is go to Sportsbook dot Fandle dot com or download the Fandel Sportsbook app, place a three or more legs same game parlay wager with cash on any Week eleven NFL game, and if your bet loses, you get a refund in site credit max refund of ten dollars. Bet on Week eleven of the NFL season with FanDuel by heading over to the Fandal Sportsbook today and placing a risk free NFL same game parlay must be twenty one years older in President Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia. Refund issue is how much roble site credit that expires in seven days max refund ten dollars. Restrictions apply see terms of sportsbook dot fanel dot com. Same game parlay available for multiple sports in all states on mobile slash web gambling problem called one hundred gambler. Visit fandel dot com slash RG in Connecticut call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Indiana one hundred and nine with it for confidentialp Michigan one hundred and two seven zero seven one seven in Tennessee called the redline at one hundred and eight nine nine seven eight nine. In West Virginia visit one hundred gambler dot net, or in Arizona called one hundred next step or tech's next step to five three three four two. Let's talk about trend one this week. If you felt like quarterback scoring is down this year compared to last year, it's because it kind of is. Among top twelve quarterbacks this season, the average points per game rate is twenty one and a half points. So the average top twelve quarterback and points per game this year is averaging twenty one and a half standard points. That number was twenty two point two last year. What's really different is what's happening at the top the top six quarterbacks. Last year, they averaged twenty three point eight points per game for the record. That's with a minimum ten games played. This year, that number is almost a full point lower. The edge that elite quarterbacks are giving you is still there, but it's not necessarily as significant as it was last year. For example, if you look at the QB eighteen or a mid range QB two, the delta between that player and a top six quarterback isn't quite as big as it was last year. There's gonna be a lot to dissect at the end of the season, but the last couple of weeks made me dig into this a little bit. It just seemed like quarterback scoring was lower. If you want some positive Kyle Pitts news, he's the biggest touchdown regression candidate at the tight end position right now. You can see that by looking at a yards to touchdowns conversion. According to how many yards a tight end usually has per touchdown, Pitch should have four point six touchdowns right now. According to Pro Football Focuses Expected Fantasy Points model, that number is four point two. But he has won Kyle Pitts has scored once this year. I'm not sure he's necessarily a by candidate, but I at least lean more by than Sell. Right now, the Chargers have given up by far the most running back rushing yards in the league, and offenses are seeing that as a way to attack the defense. On the season, LA is one of two teams that's faced a pass to rush attempt ratio under one, meaning teams are running the ball on them more frequently than they're throwing it. It's pretty crazy because it's not like the Chargers are bad. The other team with a ratio against them that low as the Lions, which makes sense because Detroit is almost always trailing in games, so opposing teams rundown clock. With the Chargers, it seems like it's just a good matchup to exploit. Trend four is one that I tweeted out in my weekly data dumb thread that I do every Sunday night. You guys should check that out on Twitter. I'm at late round QB, but Justin Herbert has now scored fewer than fifteen Fantasy points this season more often than he scored more than fifteen points. He's played nine games, and five of them have resulted between eleven and fourteen point seven points. He's just had some completely monster weeks as well, with three thirty plus point performances. He's been boom or bust, and because of that, I don't think he's really a plug and play option right now. He's someone you absolutely won on your roster, but he's not someone that you absolutely need to start week in and week out if you have a good alternative. Over the last three weeks with Jerry Judy back in action, Cortland, Sutton has ranked as the wide receiver sixty three, seventy one, and sixty two and weekly PPR scoring. He scored an average of four point nine PPR points per game, and his target share has been under ten percent in each of his last two I don't think he's necessarily someone that you want to drop, but he's definitely something that you can't start right now. They have a bye this week, so hopefully during that buy they can figure out how to get him the ball more. Unfortunately, though out of that buy they get the aforementioned Chargers, We're probably going to see a more run heavy approach from that Broncos offense in that game, so we may not see any sort of usable performance from Sutton until early December against the Chiefs, and even then it's going to be tough to trust him, which means you'd have to wait until the next week when they face the Lions. It's tough out there for Sutton managers. Mike White now has thirty or more pass attempts in three games played in week seven, eight, and ten. In those three games, Jets running backs have a thirty nine percent target chair per game. That's completely absurd. It's so insanely high. And the crazy thing is that it's not like one game is pushing that number to be so high. Their shares in those games have been thirty nine percent for thirty seven percent. I know I talked about this trend in the past, but as long as Mike White starts, Michael Carter and even Ty Johnson are viable options in PPR formats, especially Michael Carter. Trend seven is that we really didn't see any sort of increased usage from Van Jefferson without Robert Woods in the lineup. Against San Francisco, Jefferson continues to run a lot of routes, actually led the team in routes run in Week ten, according to PFF, but he still had a sixteen point seven percent target share, which is in line with what we've seen from him without de Sean Jackson over the last handful of weeks. I remain higher on Jefferson than the market, but he had a pretty rough game on Monday night. I'm not gonna lie. The usage at least should be there to some degree from here on out, even when Odell Beckham gets acclimated in that same game. Was a trend that I was afraid of when I talked about Elijah Mitchell as a cell a few weeks ago, I then said he was more of a hold because of Jamichael Hasty being hurt and an increased target share in Week nine. But in Week ten, Mitchell actually saw his lowest running back rush share in a completed game all season long. He had seventy three percent of the team's running back rushes, and that doesn't include Deebo Samuel's work. That includes Jeff Wilson's rushes, who saw twenty seven percent of the team's running back rushes. It was a nice positive game script for the forty nine ers, but neither running back was targeted in that game either. If they keep using Mitchell like this, it's gonna be tough for him to hit the ceiling that a lot of the fantasy world thought that he could hit just a couple of weeks back. Trend nine is that Robby Anderson had his best performance on Sunday on the season. He scored thirteen point seven PPR points. It was his third game finding the end zone, and he had an eighteen point eight percent target share, which is up from his seven point three percent share from his two previous games. I'm not saying Robby Anderson is back, but I think the change at quarterback can only be a good thing for Anderson in the pass catchers there because things have been so bad with Sam Darnold. I'm calling out Anderson specifically here though, because he may be on your waiver wire. He's still out there in over sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. So if he's out there and you need some wide receiver help, I don't mind it that much. With Cam Newton back in Charlotte, It's one of those moves where I'm not expecting Anderson to be some plug and play option, but I like buying into these ambiguous situations where we don't really know what the outcome is gonna be. There's a wide range of outcomes here. You should buy into that at times, especially if you need more variants on your roster, and especially if the player is free to acquire. The last trend this week is that there have been ten running backs so far this year with target shaars at or above ten percent in seven or more games. So ten running backs have had double digit percentage target shares in seven plus games this year. Sometimes looking at these players is a cheap way to unlock PPR points. You have your higher end backs on this list, like DeAndre Swift, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Austin Eckler, and Cordero Patterson, but there's also Miles Gaskin, Nahim Heinz, and JD. McKissick. McKissick is especially one that I think is an interesting trade target right now, at least in PPR formats, sort of for the reasons that I talked about on yesterday's fifteen Transaction Show with Antonio Gibson. McKissick was still involved in that game, and Washington is not likely to see such positive game scripts week in and week out. So while people were feeling good about Gibson, and I'd feel good about Gibson as well, even though I think he's a cell. But while people are feeling so good, you may be able to leverage that and get Meckissic for next to nothing. Just a thought for those of you struggling at the running back position right now. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for a pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, you know, follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, talk to you tomorrow