Late-Round Perspectives: Bob Harris

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Bob Harris is a fantasy football analyst at Football Guys and hosts with Sirius XM Radio. He's a Fantasy Football Writers Association Hall of Famer, an avid Peloton rider, a pro people watcher, and one of the nicest human beings that you're ever gonna meet. These are his Late Round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Even though your season long drafts are over, you can still draft teams over on Underdog. Just head to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the app and check out their NFL drafts. You can draft a team for a ton of different slates, all in snake draft form. If you haven't checked out Underdog yet, now's a great time to do it because if you sign up with promo code Late Round, you'll not only get a first time to posit offer, but you'll also get my rest of season rankings. After signing up, you'll get an email your inbox with a link with those rest of season rankings. They're updated each week, so again, that's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Late Round. Underdog is the best and easiest place to play fantasy sports. Now back to the show, I'm Good man, how are you? Have you uh, have you gotten in the peloton ride today?

00:01:18
Speaker 2: I have not yet, So panic is like about panic meters about halfway.

00:01:21
Speaker 3: It's like rain man. You know it's four pm. Watner's coming on.

00:01:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, peloton and wait so yes, I'll get there though, good.

00:01:27
Speaker 1: Good, Okay. I just just so so folks know. But you and I are peloton buddies. Like that's the If you were to describe our relationship in one way, it would be probably first that that we we bonded over the peloton.

00:01:42
Speaker 2: You are like a mentor. You are like like I see you. You change the whole way I approached things like you know, I kind of got into this late.

00:01:50
Speaker 3: It's Lake for me, so I'm getting into everything Lake.

00:01:51
Speaker 2: But you know, started a few years ago and saw you were on there and we started chatting and you had some really great insights and some some approaches and I've taking them to heart and made great gains. So I'm yeah, I would say you're the coach, the mentor.

00:02:05
Speaker 1: Well, but it's funny because it's been the opposite throughout my fantasy football journey and career with you, where you know, early on on things because you're you're kind of an OG in the space. This isn't an age thing. This is simply because I know that you'll you'll yell at me for saying something like that. But but real, you're you're yeah, you're you're in OG in the space. You've been around for a while, right, how long have you been officially like doing this full time?

00:02:29
Speaker 2: As you're just this is my thirty first year, yeah.

00:02:33
Speaker 1: Right, which is crazy because some people listen, many people listening to this aren't even thirty years old, right, and so, but but no, for real, like whenever I started, you know, this is back in like twenty eleven, twenty twelve or so. Uh, you were one of the first people to welcome me with open arms, and I did you know, some work with the magazines, and just from there, you know, we we were able to connect a little bit and chat and whatnot. And then it's been great. The peloton stuff is always great because it's just nice to have that thing that we can motivate each other with and talk to each other about and such.

00:03:04
Speaker 2: And like someone who's you know, like you have your you're wild at it and then so it's like it's it's great to understand how you know, how I can make gains and some of the approaches I was taking, like I just got on and start peddling right right, But there's some specific approaches that then types of rides that I've now adhere to that I think have been really helpful for me and satisfy my itch.

00:03:24
Speaker 3: You know, like I've been.

00:03:25
Speaker 2: I've been a workout weirdo for a long time. You know, if people don't know, I've got very heavy there, and like when I turned forty five, I decided to do something about it. Now there's like two hundred pounds less of me. Yeah, so you know, it's been a long journey, but I wanted to keep the journey going. And for a while I was able to do really intense you know, I love the beach body stuff, the insanity and all that stuff. But as you you know, head up towards sixty and then get into your sixties, you start realizing, dang man, I need to I need to make some adjustments.

00:03:51
Speaker 3: And the Peloton's been like the best adjustment I've made.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah. I as you know, this summer, I haven't been as good because I'm just doing other things, doing like the strain training with the Peloton app and then doing more running and stuff like that, and then I hop back on, uh, you know, maybe like a month ago or so. I'm trying to get in somewhat of a cadence. The first person I messaged whenever I was kind of down after, you know, not really hitting the numbers that would hit even six months ago, was you, because you're your your might go to with the peloton stuff, and I'm very grateful for you game likewise. Yeah. So, like I said, you're you're an og in this space, Bob. Everyone knows you, and everyone also who knows you loves you, uh for for obvious reasons. I always say that you're one of the if not the nicest human beings that that not only will you just ever meet, but definitely within the fantasy football space. But my question to you to start this off is what's something that you've seen sort of change, both in terms of how people play fantasy football and how that's evolved through the years, but also how analysis is being done within the space.

00:04:52
Speaker 2: I think the game itself the evolution has been remarkable because I've kind of seen the whole thing started playing in eighty six, and you know, like a week the first week, like somebody a friend came back from San Diego he worked there. He said, hey, you guys, I found this thing.

00:05:07
Speaker 3: You're gonna love it. And of course he was right. We did love it.

00:05:09
Speaker 2: But like a weekend to playing fantasy football, I said, we don't have all the information we need to play this, right, you know. And that was nineteen eighty six, and so you know, it took me until ninety three to get into it. But there was a brief spell in the early nineties to mid nineties where we had a shift from you know, people out chasing USA today to track their scores or calling my nine hundred number, which I figured out, like hey, people want the score is quick, let's do this Sunday night. But the rise of the commissioner software made a huge shift and opened the door, like, you know, it's hard to find twelve people that you know or that can all have the same timing and do things, and it's just so much easier to do it online. So I think the commissioning software was the huge shift and maybe started around ninety six and became more prominent after that. And about the same time the NFL went from like shunning fantasy to realizing it might be a good idea to blow their promotional winds into the sale. And they did, and that made a huge difference as well. So the growth became fairly exponential, and the number of people playing drove the analysis. And the biggest change in the analysis is like, you know, working for Joe Bryant. Now he says something that rings true to me, Like he says, I couldn't even get a job at my own site now right. I feel like we've been grandfathered in because there's so many smart people I go, you know, like you, Mike.

00:06:34
Speaker 3: Clay, Jeff Ratcliffe, I want to be Curtis Packard.

00:06:36
Speaker 2: I'm gonna leave names off, so I hate reading Scott Barrett, Dwayne MacFarlane and Nathan Yonkey, all these people that came out, you know, just like brought a different form of analysis than we were used to it and put an edge to it. Like and I don't pretend to be that, like, you know, I'm not out here grinding down.

00:06:51
Speaker 3: I'm out here assembling it all.

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Speaker 2: I'm collecting it all, assimilating it all, putting it together and running it against my experience and the way I have played the game, but providing it to my audience has kind of been the goal, you know, whether it's through the website platforms I have not football guys, or like what is it now thirteen years on Serio six M radio. You know you're you're trying to give people the whole thing. If you go to my ex profile and you'll see I have my tagline there is the person who knows one side of the story knows neither right, and so I want to assemble the arguments, like and I have all kinds of surefire theories and ideas that aren't necessarily sure fire their ideas, but I want to show my readers both sides of the coin, or give them the full picture to help them make their own decision.

00:07:35
Speaker 3: Because what I'm.

00:07:36
Speaker 2: Trying to do is, I'm what I've learned over the time, JJ is every one of my audience thinks they're every bit as smart at me, and they know everything that I know, and they could be just as successful doing what I'm doing with work for some quirk of faith that forces them to work as something else right, And you know there are other people, I mean, there's a handful of people who are out there who you know, want want to be handheld.

00:07:57
Speaker 3: But for the most part, people want, you know, to.

00:07:59
Speaker 2: Either confirm or or verify that they're not insane or just want to bounce things off you or find out that the information that they think is true is true. And so I think collecting that up and providing is great. But the ability to find that information from some really smart people has grown, and that's been the biggest change for me, is the number of super smart people who have gotten to the analysis business.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that that's why? And this this might be like even like a deep like personality related question, because like I said, like you're someone who is incredibly inviting, easy to talk to. You know, you and I have had so many conversations throughout you know, our relationship and such, but just such an easy going human being and such a kind human being. But then on top of that, I'm not trying to take to take that away at all, right, But on top of that, you've also really really embraced newcomers in the space, you know, new talent in the space and bringing them on. Like I said, you know, I like you you brought me on to do work with the magazines through the years and such and and and and that sort of thing. You've always been very open minded about that, whereas a lot of people who are in the position that you're in, who are in og in any industry. This isn't even necessarily a fantasy football thing, but any industry might reject new ideas and new people because they don't want to feel threatened in some way. So obviously personality is going to drive that to some degree, There's there's no doubt. But also, do you think the fact that you're compiling things the way that you are, and you're sifting through the information the way that you are, that's another reason as to why you embrace it the way that you do.

00:09:37
Speaker 2: That is definitely a reason I embraces it. Look, I started out as arrogance. I wanted to show everyone what other people are doing because I thought I.

00:09:43
Speaker 3: Did it way better.

00:09:43
Speaker 2: Yeah right, But over the time that also evolved because I realized like, oh wow, there are people doing it better. Uh, and maybe I better figure this out. And how do you how do you figure that out? Will you use that information? Like and like I said, I have opinions, I will go out and I will find or takes from you or whoever else it backs my position. I'll find takes to go against mine, Yeah, and I'll provide both of us to say, well maybe, And I guess that's you know, Like the whole goal for me is giving you know, what can.

00:10:13
Speaker 3: You do as a fantasy manager.

00:10:14
Speaker 2: You're not calling plays, you're not throwing passes, you're not throwing blocks, wrapping ankles, you're not. Your whole ability to control the outcome of your team's games is being the best informed manager in your league and having that slide edge. And that's what I'm trying to provide. And so as much of that information as I can give them, the happier my audience is, and the better I feel about what I'm doing.

00:10:35
Speaker 1: I think it really speaks to the thing that I always talk about with my like analytical analysis. It's just thinking in terms of range of outcomes. You're just thinking about range of outcomes in a different way, right, Like you're thinking about it in terms of the types of content that you're consuming and the nuggets that you're consuming, as opposed to like, you know, looking at a projection and not just being so fixated on that one number, you know, and exactly thing at leasting like a wide range, you.

00:10:57
Speaker 2: Say, the range posible outcomes. I left Matt Harmon off my list there, So that's and so one of the joys. One of the things I will look back on when I'm done with this is all the people that I was able to be involved with because I saw that they could do something, and I gave them a platform and help help them raise their own profile a little bit. I mean, it's just it's super satisfying, right, like you can say out there. I mean, I don't know if there's anybody who hasn't. Well, there are people who haven't, but so many people have written articles for me over the course of the thirty years, and I've been able to publish those and get them out there. Joe Bryant, who who I now work for, I published his first article on Value Based Drafts.

00:11:35
Speaker 3: Magazine in nineteen ninety six.

00:11:37
Speaker 1: Right, that's crazy.

00:11:37
Speaker 2: I mean, so all those things, yes, And I do think that's part of it though, is making sure you provide. I always felt like, you know, if my goal is informing my audience as best I can, then I should tap into the best minds possible or share the best information from those minds that I possibly can, and that's been something we've also done on serious I mean, I'm dragging people on all the time who probably have much better things to do than come on my show. But you want to get that information out there and expose people to great work. And I think that's going to be you know, when I'm when all of a sudden done, that'll be the thing I look back on. And you know, I was a co founder and one of the founding members of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and that was one of the reasons we wanted to to get some raised, help raise the profiles of people who are creating all the content.

00:12:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's awesome, and really you're a part of so many people's stories and it's it's fantastic, and honestly, I feel honored that you are a part of my story the way that you have been, So thank you for that.

00:12:31
Speaker 2: Well, so you know, I'm a huge fan though also, I mean, aside from all the all the stuff, I'm a huge consumer and and I like I do, I tend to gravitate towards certain creators because I either like the style, I like the information I'm getting. The information proves to make me look super smart because I'm asking it along and all those things, right, and so that's your You are very high on that list as well.

00:12:51
Speaker 1: Thank you, Thank you. All right, let's let's talk some fantasy football. Let's get into into some takes, because look, you're you're the the week two guests. I guess it's a week two at entering we two guests and when Week one happens, I mean you've seen it now for a while where uh, people like to look, they like to react, but they i'd say they overreact. You know, I think that you should be you should be reacting. You just need to understand that balance of reacting versus overreacting, right. And so there's a lot of stuff going on right now across the league where we saw things happen week one. We see this every year where stuff happens and then things sort of balance out entering week two and then week three or not or or week five.

00:13:33
Speaker 3: I saw something today, j D, and I thought it was great.

00:13:35
Speaker 2: Kevin Patrick NFL dot Com ROA treat week one like a lying toddler, Smile, gently correct if necessary. You know, there's no ill will, right, I mean that's kind of what it is. You're you know, we we sit here and we smartly tell everyone, start your studs.

00:13:48
Speaker 3: Start the guys you draft me.

00:13:49
Speaker 2: Well, if we're being honest with everybody, we don't know who the studs are. The studs you get to identify themselves. We're playing last year's studs. Yeah, and Marcus Grant loves my stupid saying of don't draft last your best team. Well, that's probably a wise choice. But also you're drafting a lot of last year's best players because they were last year's best players, or they've been the best players over time. So I think you know, leaning into that realization that week one, two, three, less.

00:14:15
Speaker 3: Start straining off the volatility is going to be huge.

00:14:19
Speaker 2: Maybe allows you tobit way to make some decisions, but it depends on your style of play. My style of play is I spent all off season telling myself happy stories about players so I would draft them, or telling myselfs horrible stories about players I didn't want to pit, yeah, you know, and pricing them out of my window.

00:14:34
Speaker 3: So I want to stick with that.

00:14:35
Speaker 2: But I understand that I've created these narratives myself, right based on information I've gleaned and put together over the course of an entire offseason. If I'm being smart, I have to realize that escaping my narratives and saying that this is wrong. The faster I can do that, the better off I'm going to be. But there's a fine line, right, there's a fine line between totally bailing on the narrative you've built or saying it's going to take a little time.

00:14:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, and perhaps no player in situation where this applies to more than the tight end situation in Baltimore. Right, you get Mark Andrews, who was a fourth fifth round pick in a lot of twelve team leagues this year, and then out of seemingly nowhere. I mean, look, we all knew Isaiah likely was on that depth chart, that they might run more, they probably would run more twelve personnel, A lot of that stuff we knew existed. But I don't think anyone was ready to see what we saw in Week one, right, Like, that was not my point. Yeah, that was not an actual prediction or projection by anyone. So my question to you is, how in the world are you handling the situation right now? Do you think that Isaiah likely is the better fantasy asset straight up moving forward compared to Mark Andrews.

00:15:45
Speaker 3: I do not so I think Mark Andrews.

00:15:49
Speaker 2: You know, we haven't seen the Mark Andrews that I'm about to talk about since before the injury last year, but that Mark Andrews was pretty much the best player on the field, the best receiving asset on the field for most every game he was in, and certainly the Ravens best receiving asset. And it's reasonable to leave that the time off late last year followed by a car accident or you know this summer that kept him off to practice field. Look, when are we going to come to griffs with the fact like we can't take lock right? Like Christian McCaffrey is a perfect example. But it dovetails with Cooper Cup last year, where here's somebody who missed an entire month and we kept telling yourself, Nah, he's so good, it doesn't matter. Yeah, right, Well it might matter. Maybe it mattered a little bit for Mark Andrews. But also what mattered was the Chiefs seemed to realize that Mark Andrews is very good. We can go back five games he averaged about twenty some yards per game, the zero touchdowns, and we saw it in this game where they were bracketing him, and he was plenty busy, ran plenty of routes. Just seemed like Isaiah Likely was getting better treatment and seemed to make the most of his opportunities.

00:16:52
Speaker 3: You mentioned the twelve personnel package.

00:16:55
Speaker 2: I thought, like last year we'd see more of it because Tom Munkin comes in and you go back to this time, it was like fifty nine percent of the time, like the third highest rate in college football.

00:17:04
Speaker 3: He had a lot of talent position.

00:17:06
Speaker 2: He has a lot of talent position in Baltimore, so you expected more of it.

00:17:09
Speaker 3: It was it was.

00:17:10
Speaker 2: Plus what it was fifty plus percent this Yeah, in the first game that went up. That was up from like ten eleven percent last year. So I think we're going to see some normalization. But like if they stuck with this, it would make perfect sense to leverage the talent they have it on hand. I just don't think the outcomes are going to be the same we saw Isaiah Likely last year in the five games without Andrews, he scored a lot of touchdowns, scored a touchdown I think every game, and still you know, had a hard time hitting that twenty point mark. I don't think he hit it at all last year, and so this seems like a bit of an outlier to me. And I know I was answering questions on My Serious show last night Isaiah likely or the field basically, and you know, my answer is mostly the field.

00:17:51
Speaker 3: And I'm wide open to the fact.

00:17:52
Speaker 2: I wrote one of my fantasy not book columns, I write maybe about six or seven players a week in that column two weeks ago. I chose to use some of that space on Isaiah Likely because I did think if if something were happening to Mark Andrews, the contingent upside is huge. He's a top five tight end, but also that there might be a role for him, and that's how it's playing out, So I am playing them. I don't think we've seen a lot of teams field to top ten tight ends. I want to go back to the Patriots of a number of years ago, but since then that's not the norm. But it's entirely possible, and so I'm not going to advise people there's a you know, to bench likely, but I'm I'm still ranking Andrews well ahead of him this week, and I'm probably gonna go I'm probably have Likely down around in the eight or nine range.

00:18:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, I'm like pretty much lockstep with what you're saying here. I mean, you look at their twelve personnel usage. If that maintains and continues, then I think we could see too, especially the way that like the tight end position performed in week one, and we already have some injuries of the position. I think I think we realistically could see too, top ten, top twelve tight ends from one team, which, like you said, I think maybe with Philly with Nerts maybe in there too, But like they're really I mean, this has not happen frequently at all, right, and so for placing our bets Andrews. The other thing too is Andrews ran the routes that we want tight ends to run, which is in the slot outside. You know, likely played the more traditional tight end role in that game. It's just as you noted the Chiefs Steves Bagnola, They've done really well against Mark Andrews historically, and you know, some people could say, well what if other teams just well, other teams haven't done that in the past. After the Chiefs have played played Mark Andrews well. So I don't think that we should necessarily expect that. But not only that, but we just saw that Isaiah likely is not bad right like he can he can, he can make big plays and do big things. So teams are gonna have to to keep him on us as well.

00:19:43
Speaker 2: Right, And they shouldn't be lost on you that you know you've left with injury. When he came back and on the final play of the game, the biggest play of the game, who was he looking for? And at that point, though, I'll also say that Mark Andrews looked his gas. The only guy on the field who looked his gas is the Chiefs defensive line, right like, so like he may have a little bit of work to do on his conditioning as well, but I think that'll all be fine.

00:20:02
Speaker 3: I think over the course of the season.

00:20:04
Speaker 2: Again, we need like I get it, you're out there going, but I lost this week and I need to win this one.

00:20:09
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be over two.

00:20:10
Speaker 2: And just drives a lot of decisions that I think are probably not the best decisions, but it's totally understandable.

00:20:14
Speaker 3: I'm a little more patient that way.

00:20:16
Speaker 2: I'm hoping it doesn't get to him four, but even if it does, I think I can climb out of that hole, but I'm looking for ways to avoid getting there too. So totally understand people want and forced likely in the lineups, but be careful who you're forcing him in over.

00:20:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent. The other thing too with Mark Andrews is he had that car accident in that situation in August, where like he didn't get a normal camp, Like, it wasn't a totally normal off season for him. So that's another thing to keep in mind. You know, you mentioned that he looked gassed and maybe that played a role. Is that his conditioning is just not totally totally.

00:20:44
Speaker 3: There just yet, So yep, I totally think so.

00:20:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, another thing to think about. But like I said, tight end was a dumpster fire in Week one. We saw a lot of these elite tight ends. Now we're recording this before the Buffalo Miami game. Dalton Kincaid is playing tonight, so you know, we won't say whether or not, you know, he does well or not, We have no idea. But are you nervous about how the tit Ands performed in Week one or do you think that there's gonna be a bounce back overall?

00:21:09
Speaker 2: I think they'll be a bounce back overall. But I'm hella nervous, right, Like, we could be having a Noah Grade Travins Kelsey conversation is easily. Yeah, not as easily, but we could be having one of those also, So so yeah, I think it's a little nerve racking. I also think, like, you know, like watching the bills you mentioned with Dalton Kincaid, man, I don't know how many. And that's one of the great things that I've enjoyed on my serious job is we talk to multiple beat writers every week and you get a really good feel for what's going on on the ground and what those writers are seeing. And you come over thirty years, I think most of these people I have been following, and I kind of part of this game is understanding the preconceived notions that some of these people have some of the past their taking. I think Peter King wrote it once, I like, do do writers root for teams?

00:21:52
Speaker 3: Now? We root for our stories, right.

00:21:53
Speaker 2: So you see that and you'll see people you know, kind of you know, reporters who are on the ground and maybe they'll be looking through those views.

00:21:59
Speaker 3: So sorting that out a little bit. But Dalton Kincaid, the run.

00:22:02
Speaker 2: Has been you know consistent, every pretty much every brighter I've talked to there thinks he's going to be the most targeted receiving asset here or in Buffalo. And I think he'll probably end up like that, but it might take a might take.

00:22:13
Speaker 3: A little while. It's a whole.

00:22:14
Speaker 2: It's a totally revamped receiving room right like, we're looking at a totally changed situation. And it's funny because I can go back to the draft when I thought Kean Coleman was my big prediction of the draft going to the Bills, and I thought it was the I thought it was a great pick, and then talking to people on the ground who kept telling me, yeah, they see him kind of as Gabe Davis, I went, oh, the guy who hasn't cut fifty catches. But now I see that maybe Josh Allen does have an affinity for him, or at least we've seen a brief glimpse of that. So I'm looking to build on that. But I'm I think Dalton k will be fine. I think a lot of these guys will be find If you know, if you made me pick one single guy who I have the highest expectation for, maybe this week because of the matchup.

00:22:53
Speaker 3: It's Trey McBride.

00:22:55
Speaker 2: You know, you mentioned something running out of the slot. He runs out of the slot a lot. The rams are horrible, horrible as stopping that. And I think you played eighty five percent of the staffs ran now almost as many rouse as Marvin Harrison Junior ran them more effectively, maybe yeah, And and Michael Wilson. So I think I think Trey McBride did a really good spot this week.

00:23:15
Speaker 1: Any any concerns about Kelsey, any concerns about a you know, maybe maybe maybe like so so do you like, do you think that there's the possibility that this is this is finally the year where things slow down and he drops off or is it more so they might you know, like last year he was he obviously had a poorer regular season I say poor, like he was still the tight end one in PPR points per game, but like or at least you know, like depending on your scoring, he was a tight end one. But we saw in the playoffs him really pick up. You know, last time we saw him against the Ravens, he dominated the Ravens in the ANFC Championship game. Do you think that that could kind of happen where we see, you know, it's kind of in reverse of what you expect from an older player, where the second half of the season is where maybe he ramps up and he just becomes the Kelsey of Ole. But do you have concerns that could this be the year that Taylor Swio's boyfriend finally you know, falls off?

00:24:05
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And I think it's easy to forget. Last year he started out with a knee injury that talked from the game and maybe slowed him.

00:24:12
Speaker 3: Like we can say the same maybe about Tony Pollard.

00:24:14
Speaker 2: I mean, there's players that maybe weren't hitting the ground running and maybe Kelsey is one of them. But also he is older and and I think it is a concern, Like it's not an overriding concern. I ranked him as my tight end one coming in. I think maybe we have not seen this offense where it's going to be there. They have new pieces there. We can look at Patrick Mahomes's average depth of target for the two seasons without Tyreek Hill, how it's diminished. Last year it was lowest. Now maybe with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. When he gets back on the field, it opens things up, and that opens things up more for Travis Kelsey, but Racy Rice is probably going to be a limiting factor working in some of the same areas. So yeah, there's concerns, But I think in general, if I you know, you know, if I'm betting, and I guess we kind of are, I'm betting, I'm betting that by the time the season's over, we'll feel pretty good about feel pretty good about Travis Kelcey and a lot of these players. Like I go back to twenty twenty, right, what was that stretch the middle of the season when Tom Brady couldn't complete a deep pass?

00:25:11
Speaker 3: He was horrible, couldn't do it.

00:25:13
Speaker 2: Then all of a sudden at the end of the season he was the best deep ball thrower in the league. Or the brief periods where Jamar Chase couldn't catch passes, and no, all of a sudden, yes he can, right like we knew that. We know Travis Kelsey's very good, he's cagy, He's a solid veteran in an offense built pretty much around him. I think maybe once we get all the speed pieces in place, and I think that was the whole reason we have a Hollywood Brown there and an Xavier Worthy there is to open things up.

00:25:38
Speaker 3: I think it'll benefit him. Yeah.

00:25:40
Speaker 1: I mean it's hard at the end of the day to like totally fade the best tight end or arguably the best tight end of all time. You know, it's like when it comes down to it, and.

00:25:48
Speaker 2: We've seen tight ends run, you know, pretty late into their careers. I mean, even like Antonio Gates was beef to hell and was still label a huge goal line presence.

00:25:57
Speaker 3: And that's another thing.

00:25:58
Speaker 2: You know, for Kelsey the last two years, you know, has the most opportunities and gold to go situations among all the tight ends. So I think that he's been very effective at it too. Yeah, So I think that's that's a plus as well.

00:26:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, most definitely. The other big topic that I want to get to is what I've referred to through the years is ambiguous backfields. We had a lot of these ambiguous backfields and drafts this year where you get multiple middle round running backs that are from the same backfield and you're kind of hoping that one of them, you know, emergers just based on talent, but obviously there's injury upside all that good stuff. But in Week one, it seemed like two one A's really emerged out of these two ambiguous backfields in Cincinnati and Tennessee. Where you get Zach Moss, you get Tony Pollard. So my question to you, because I got this question a lot from especially with Chase Brown, but I got this question a lot from my mailbag this week, is it time to panic when it comes to Chase Brown and Ta Jay Spears.

00:26:52
Speaker 3: It's never time of panic.

00:26:53
Speaker 2: After week one, it's time to start watching more carefully and closely and seeing how when I think it's Spears case, the snap fears weren't that far off. I think, you know, Spears still have forty five percent. A little more worrisome in Cincinnati for me, but I don't think we've seen that offense where it's going to be. This might be a symptom of a bigger disease there in terms of the receiving corps and maybe timing with the receivers. I know dani Orlovski is not impressed with that if you saw, but you know thinks are like a second off. Okay, So yeah, so that's a little bit of concern in Zach Moss, obviously, you know a better kind of power runner than we think Chase Brown will be.

00:27:29
Speaker 3: I love Chase Brown.

00:27:30
Speaker 2: I think you know you look last year second fat like Matt Wallman will somewhere out there shaking his fist at me because you call speed the cleavage of the NFL, and he wants me to keep my eyes up, and I don't, you know, it's the old cliche. There's two things you can't coach in the NFL level size and speed, and guys like Chase Brown have at least half of that more than anybody else around them. He was the second fastest speed in the NFL last year. Yeah, So I do think, and you know, listening to the people who cover the team on a daily basis over the course of the off season, I think most of them felt like Chase Brown was going to be the lead piece here, even if we didn't necessarily as fantasy managers all along. So I'm still hoping for some normalization there, But that one concerns me a little bit more.

00:28:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree. And then you know, with the Tennessee thing, you had Brian Callahan come out this week and say that they want to use Tajy Spears more, and he was used in like basically all of their third downs. You know, against Chicago, so negative game scripts could could benefit him as well. So I would agree that overall, like of these two, I'm more concerned about Brown than I am Spears. But when it comes in, and I want to ask you this too, as like a follow up, when teams perform poorly in week one like Cincinnati did, is there a part of you And this is a pure like like field based take, because I have not researched, like I don't know if anyone's really researched this, but is there a part of you that says they got to change things up? Right? Like they can't just go with that same approach week in and week out because it clearly didn't work for them. And you know, in turn, not that Zach Moss had like a horrible game, But does that make you feel maybe a little bit more optimistic than what the box score and what we saw in week one from a usage perspective says with Chase Brown.

00:29:02
Speaker 2: Two things the field base takes or my approach, Right, That's why I rely on people like you and Barrett and Dwayne McFarland in the center, center center. But no, but yeah, I like you see a shift and for tennessee like anything that takes the ball out of Will Levis's head is probably a good idea.

00:29:16
Speaker 3: At the moment.

00:29:17
Speaker 2: True so, But but Cincinnati too. I think Cincinnati, I think it was in a unique spot though, and it'll probably be without T Higgins again last week. But you know, as I covered the pregame show on Sirius, it struck me that, Wowmark Chase showed up an hour before the inactive announcement. I don't think anybody knew if he was going to play or not, right, I mean, that's that's weird, right, So so I think there's I think there's a lot more to work through in Cincinnati, and maybe we see a little more, a little more normalization than we might expect, even with Higgins out this week, So maybe we see a little more brown. But but I do think if there's concerned about that, and if Dan Orlovsky's right and the timing Joe Burrow his receivers is all off and they need to work on that, then they're going to lean way more heavily on Moss until they get it piled in.

00:30:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, I know they saw a negative game script, but I want to see them in like a shootout negative game script, you know what I mean, Like, yeah, right right exactly, like like what happens if they're down by three touchdowns instead of this like ground and pound kind of game. I think things could also change in the way that they need to get that dynamic player in the backfield. So that's why if you have Chase Brown, don't drop him. You know, if we see the exact same split next week, that's just another piece of evidence that we're leaning towards Zach Moss more and more. But a lot of things can change throughout a season.

00:30:31
Speaker 2: With these backfields, you should be sitting as far away from your panic button as you can and any times when you're setting your lineup, just like you got to. I don't want to go Aaron Rodgers and tell everyone to relax, but kind of relax.

00:30:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, I agree. Probably the biggest story, one of the biggest Fantasy stories this past week was was JK. Dobbins. I would argue that if we knew Dobbins was one hundred percent healthy, you know, entering the season, we probably would have been drafting him higher. I want to say, you know, like I think that for sure, the ADP and where he was being drafted was pretty much just driven by health, right, It wasn't driven by talent ever. It's like, it's not like Gus Edwards is a very strong running I mean strong physically, but it's not like he's like a great running back. And then you know Camanie Ydell. We can all have our hopes for him and the potential, but he's at Day three, back at the end of the days.

00:31:18
Speaker 3: Player, right, yeah, right right, inactive.

00:31:20
Speaker 1: Yeah right, right right, And so Dobbins comes out has the day that he has. Do you think that right now the fantasy community is valuing that performance properly? Are you concerned about JK. Dobbins? Just give me give me your general feeling, vibes and stance on where Dobbins sits right now within fantasy football.

00:31:40
Speaker 2: So is interesting when Gus had Red signed, he was called the Bell Cowboy Joe Jrtez, He's the GM. And that was before Dobbins got there, And that was before we knew Dobbin's health. And that was also before a procedure. At some point this offseason for Gus Edwards. All these things kind of come together. But I think we all know that JK Dobbins could be good. The problem was, you know, nine out of the last fifty one games, or his availability has been limited to nine games.

00:32:04
Speaker 3: So you look at some of the numbers.

00:32:06
Speaker 2: Tom Pelsero put out a tweet I think yesterday, just saying, you know, in this since for his career, his six point one yards per carry ranks first in the NFL or four yards after contact second in the NFL. All the extra added, uh, you know, the analytic numbers that have more more letters in debreviation that I know what they mean all point to great things as well. So yeah, so I think I think had we known that, you know, it was rookie year JK Dobbins healthy JK Dobbins.

00:32:35
Speaker 3: We probably would have been a little more eager to draft him.

00:32:37
Speaker 2: I started getting more shares late in the summer, so and that was mostly when I was moved out of basketball mode and into redraft mode. So and I actually started him in a number of games. You know, they said it was gonna be hot hand situations.

00:32:49
Speaker 3: JK.

00:32:49
Speaker 2: Dobbins spontaneously combusted, So the hand is pretty hot. The two long runs forty six and sixty one yards or the longest rookie year I think that's an indication that he's fully held healthy. I think it's going to be hard to keep him off the field. If that's the case. If you invested in Gus Edwards, park the bus, park him on the bench for.

00:33:06
Speaker 3: A little while.

00:33:07
Speaker 2: Don't don't panic on him either. It's a long season. Things could change and he still may have value as a goal line play when we get into the buys or whatever. Maybe a guy that can help you avoid getting a zero.

00:33:16
Speaker 3: But as long as JK.

00:33:18
Speaker 2: Dobbins is healthy and like if you're out there saying, wow, he's out there on my waiver wire, he was.

00:33:22
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm all about.

00:33:23
Speaker 2: Being aggressive for players like this with this profile. I'm injury agnostic is one of the things that has been a long standing tradition for me. I don't you know, like there's a difference between chronic injuries and chronically injured players. He's been chronically injured, but it's been you know, some of it's just luck right for a lot of players. So you know, and I know there are people out there, some of Michael Fabiano's wagging his finger at me and saying.

00:33:48
Speaker 3: Hurt players stay hurt.

00:33:49
Speaker 2: Okay, you know, but I don't believe that, so I'm willing to take a chance on a player like Dobbins. You know, if he was available in leagues for me, I probably would have dumped some fab money on him this week, and in the belief that this is gonna be a run heavy offense and he's gonna be the primary piece.

00:34:04
Speaker 1: I think in hindsight from a process standpoint, and look, I like to do more of this kind of like thinking after the season's over, when we can see a larger sample and all that kind of stuff. But I do think just strictly from a process standpoint that you know, because I like, you really changed my tune with Dobbins, and I wrote about it in the draft guide a little bit with a Kamani Vadel dart throw update, but it was more so, Okay, I saw Dobbins healthy. Therefore I'm going to draft Dobbins, you know, at cost, way over Gus Edwards at cost because there's just more upside with a guy like Dobbins, who's going to probably run more routes, catch more passes, all that kind of stuff. And we know that as a player as a talent, Dobbins greater than greater than greater than Gus Edwards, like at the end of the day, right.

00:34:43
Speaker 3: Like by by orders of magnet.

00:34:46
Speaker 1: Right exactly. And so but I do think from a process standpoint, you know, of course we're saying this after week one happened and all that kind of stuff, But I do wish that I was more aggressive in just going after Dobbins, you know, before early to mid August, when I just saw that he was healthy, because the cost to acquire wasn't significant, Like it wasn't it wasn't that big of a deal. Now I understand it's a little bit different, probably from a best ball perspective, because you don't want to take zeros in your lineup for stuff. And maybe that's what like was in the back of my head as to why there wasn't that aggression. But I do think that this is probably a good learning just in general that yes, this is a really tough injury to come back from. Yes JK. Dobbins has not been able to stay healthy, but we we probably could be a little bit quicker. And you know a lot of people are listening to this saying, well, I was quicker. I was. I was drafting Dobbins in July and blah blah blah blah, and like that's great, like you that's that's definitely better process, I think, because at the end of the day, you know, if you're talking a thirteenth round pick in July for JK. Dobbins, who has the pedigree that he has and has the upside that he has in a backfield that we knew was wide open, you know, I feel like we probably that.

00:35:55
Speaker 2: They were going to run yes, first, second, and third. I mean you can go back over the course of Greg Roman's career or go back to his portion with Arma in San Francisco. I mean, the rushing numbers have been off the charts, so so yeah, I'm totally on board with that, and I do think it cost That's the thing, you know, one of the great things about being a merciless chief skate is is you end up with a lot of players like this on your roster, right because they're just going so late, and when you're sitting there like, okay, well I see Edwards here four rounds earlier, I think I'm gonna just wait a little while.

00:36:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really look, I'm glad that I had like a three week ish a period of being aggressive and getting Dobbins because I now have Dobbins, you know, my fantasy rosters and stuff. It's just, you know, you want to be You're you're greedy as a fantasy analyst. You want to you want to be right from the start, instead of being cautious the way that that a lot of us were conscious with Dobbins. I think though, you know, modern medicine is the way that it is now too. And of course I'm not a doctor, and I listened to the smart people who are you know, I talked to Edwin Polaross all the time, who uh, you know, will give me great takes on these players. And he's still you know, there's still a lot of hesitation with Dobbins right now, just because you know, that explosiveness could go away after more and more reps and stuff like that. But at the same time, I just don't I think that the masses kind of already assumed that, like they're already taking that into consideration, which is why I don't necessarily think he's a buy or a cell right now.

00:37:18
Speaker 2: Right I've you know, so I felt like, you know, I was off Nick Chubb. I mean, you know, but I thought the tenth round I don't know what he's coming back, you know. I mean, he has the map to return from this serious injury because he's done it before. But if you listen to the language coming out of Cleveland, yeah, get me back sometime this year, Yeah or sometime maybe there's a super vague.

00:37:38
Speaker 3: I know there was like a series of really.

00:37:39
Speaker 2: Great reports in his personal trainers saying, oh he could play week one. That was never gonna happen, and they're going to be cautious with them all along.

00:37:46
Speaker 3: You had to know this.

00:37:47
Speaker 2: And and if he's back after four games, I think that'll be far earlier than I expect. I expect this to be a slow roll for him. Whereas Dobbins comes in, and I mean he was. He came into training camp elthier than Edwards. Edward's had the most recent procedure. So I mean, I think those are things you're looking at, and it's like running backs for tricky business. But when you have a guy with this kind of upside at that kind of price, I don't think you should hesitate.

00:38:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So I bring folks on perspectives because I want you guys to tell me that I'm wrong about takes that I had throughout the week. That's really what like where this all started. And now that we're in season, it's a lot easier to sort of like draw on some of the takes that I had and ask you questions about it. My only sell this week because it was such an underperforming week in fantasy football, so it is really hard to say, you know, trade this guy away. He overperformed this week, but my only sell in fifteen transactions with Stephan Diggs. And I have to add, like I understand every you know, the other side to this argument is that this is the Houston offense. Obviously they're going to score a lot of points, and obviously Stephan Diggs himself is good. The logic for me, you know, is this combination of he was used in the slot, like this is his role in this offense. He had an incredibly low average depth of target in that role. I don't think he's going to maintain a one and a half average depth of target like rest of season. That's not the argument, but a lot of people, at the end of the day, we'll look at the performance and see that he scored two touchdowns and assume that, oh, he had great usage, hit a great game nineteen percent target share, which I think is probably around what we should probably expect from Diggs scores twice he has this low a dot. To me, it's a little concerning, and that's why I threw him out there as a cell. It's not just sell them no matter what, of course, but do you think I'm wrong or and let me let me ask you this as well, Tank Dell versus Stephan Diggs, which one would you rather have rest of season? As you're answering the question about Stephan Diggs.

00:39:42
Speaker 3: So I don't think you're wrong on Digs.

00:39:44
Speaker 2: I think any time someone comes out and has a performance like that with all the underlying metrics suggesting exactly what you're pointing to, and then the huge outcome the two touchdowns, it's very fortuitous. I look Xavier Worthy in his two touchdowns and I see wow, kind of a trick play run up the middle in a broken Kyle Hamilton was totally lost in the cover too, That safety was gone, right, So so so I kind of feel like this may be a case with Diggs. I you know, I did kind of have a slight change in thinking about this talking to John McClain, who like a great Houston, Texas beat writer for the Chronicle for years that writes for the team, but a really straight shooter, and so just tried to put him down on this pecking order. And his final, final, you know, assessment was Diggs leads the team in catches, Collins leads the team in yards, and Dell leads and yards per catch. If I'm sitting here right now and I'm betting on these, you know, I'm betting on the guys who have been there a year, who have the chemistry and the built in connection. And Diggs has been on his best behavior according to everyone. And I know that's, you know, kind of a loaded statement, but you know, he can be troublesome.

00:40:48
Speaker 3: He's been like all on board with everything.

00:40:50
Speaker 2: I think the Texans did a really smart thing by, you know, saying, hey, you're here for one year and you can go out and make a lot of money with a big season. So I like all that. But he's one of three, and I think if you can move him and get really great value in return, I'd probably be dealing the same.

00:41:04
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:41:04
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, look, I'm not making this comp to say that this is the way his production is gonna go. But I do have some fear that they not to like the extreme degree. People are definitely gonna take this the wrong way, which is why I'm prefacing the way that I'm prefacing right now. But I look at a situation like Seattle, Okay, this kind of does remind me in a in a beefed up, boosted way of Jackson Smith and Jigba in the way that we saw him get used in week one, how we saw him get used last year out of the slot. You have two really good perimeter players, and it's it's beefed up in the sense that the situation is a lot better. I think Diggs is obviously a better player at this point than JSN right uh and and but the the the idea behind it is pretty similar that when you have a slot player or guy who's gonna play a lot of his snaps from the slot, who then takes on that role and has kind of a lower ish a DOT role. Because if you look at those three widers, I would I would go to the bank and saying that Stefan Diggs, even from here on out remove week one, is going to have the lowest a DOT of those three wide receivers on that team.

00:42:08
Speaker 3: It's not one point two or whatever, right right, right.

00:42:10
Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, we are. It's not gonna be you know, like like from here to the other side of my desk, it's gonna you know, it'll probably be higher than that. But the way from just a statistical standpoint, the way that you combat that is with more volume. Right, Like you can get away with having a six or seven yard a dot as long as like we saw Deontay Johnson at times in Pittsburgh where his A dot was really low, but he was still relevant fantasy because they just peppered him with a twenty eight twenty nine percent target share. That's not gonna happen in Houston as long as Tank Dell and Nico Collins are healthy. Right, That's my fear with with digs right now.

00:42:46
Speaker 2: That was my That was my take all off season. Long as you know the days of one hundred and sixty targets are over for him, and like to a large degree, I mean, what do I want I want to chase in fantasy? And I think it's important to early in the season to combat volatility.

00:43:02
Speaker 3: Sure volume, certain volumes or at.

00:43:03
Speaker 2: Least certain anticipated volume, like as sure as anything can be, and I don't see that with Digs anymore.

00:43:09
Speaker 3: And even last year when he was getting the volume.

00:43:11
Speaker 2: It didn't work out well for him the last half of the season, so there were a lot of reasons to dial back on him. I thought, I felt like we were drafting them right, like call Hims ahead of Diggs, who was ahead of Dell, And I think that's fine. I think Dell's gonna end up being very good. I mean, it's easy to forget how good he was late last season when he got hurt. He was on a pretty epic role there. So so I would be fine. You know, if I had both of those guys on my roster somehow and I wanted to move one, it would absolutely be Digs. Not just because he's, you know, the one that's easier to move right now coming off a huge game. But I just think over the long term, the bigger plays are going to come from Dell. And that's kind of what you know, Like none of these guys are going to be my wide receiver one or two. I don't think they're probably going to be wide receiver threes.

00:43:54
Speaker 1: Yeah. The other thing with Digs, like like you mentioned, you know, I think that where they were being drafted made plenty of sense, Like they weren't target or avoids. For me, you know, this makes sense where Diggs is going, makes sense where Dell's going. My stance on the cell this week, just to give a little bit more context, is if you can profit on Dicks right now, I don't think it's a bad idea to profit on that asset because we didn't see any evidence that he was going to be used in some different way than what we were projecting at the end of the night.

00:44:23
Speaker 2: Like let's say you would in and on you were all hero running back and some mere white was your target. Not saying I did that, but I might have did that, but like, look, no, if you had to need a great needed a position, right and he would be the easy guy to say, Yeah, man, here's a guy I could throw over and turn into something better at a position I have a greater need at.

00:44:42
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:44:43
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about just some of the offenses that we saw, some of the performances. I mentioned just a second ago that we had an underperformance in general across the league. It was just a low scoring, really crummy week from a passing perspective. Are there any offenses that underperformed and weak one that you think could bounce back here in week two.

00:45:03
Speaker 2: I'd like to think it's the Bengals, Yeah, you know, I mean, like honestly with a you know, and maybe some of this will depend on how Jamar Chase's week goes.

00:45:12
Speaker 3: I still don't know for sure where he's at right.

00:45:15
Speaker 2: But even even at all that, even with all the trouble and tribulation he came in, because it's all six of his targets and and at some point, you know, he's going to be a bigger thread.

00:45:22
Speaker 3: There won't be a T Higgins this week.

00:45:24
Speaker 2: But what you said earlier is what strikes me as a game where they need to put up big numbers. And that's entirely possible in Kansas City. So I like that, you know, And I look at some of the other you know, underperforming offenses, and you know, I don't think Carolina has a chance of improving in the short term. I mean, this is going to be a long project. I don't even know if David Tepper has the patience for that. And see see changes like three weeks in or whatever, but then you know, the whole different story. I don't know that we're going to see a huge step forward from the Titans. I mean everything the Titans, you know, their improvement is based on will Love not being what he was last week. Yeah, I don't know if I don't know if he can do that. I don't know Brian Callahan knows if he can do that right now either, So that'll be a big decision. I think the Jets are probably a candidate playing against Tennessee, you.

00:46:13
Speaker 3: Know, knocked a little rust off.

00:46:15
Speaker 2: I'm a little concerned to Darreon Rodgers not being able to not be as mobile as he's been in the past.

00:46:20
Speaker 3: And we did see the you know, the Tennessee pass rush.

00:46:22
Speaker 2: It's not like monstrous, but you know, they hectored Caleb Williams a little bit, but he's a rookie. It might be a little harder to do that with Aaron Rodgers. I think the Jets are candidate get Mike Williams running a little better this week and maybe being a.

00:46:35
Speaker 3: Little more involved.

00:46:36
Speaker 2: Allan Lazar was surprisingly good and I think the other pieces there. Reese Hall is fantastic, so so I think that might be the offense that I'm looking for.

00:46:43
Speaker 3: It was a tough matchup for him.

00:46:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, it definitely was. The Titans are one. I remember I did an episode on early season schedule analysis, right, and one of the teams that I called out was Tennessee because I was invested, and I mean I am invested in the Tennessee offense in best ball, just because I thought that the costs were pretty tractive where a lot of them were going right. But one of the things that did scare me from a manage lyde perspective, not to say that it totally scared me off, but their early season schedule was was rough, right, like Chicago's defense. Now they might get destroyed this weekend because Houston's Houston, but Chicago's defense has been very, very good since the middle of last year. You know, when we saw a Week one with the turnovers obviously against Tennessee and their ability to get to Will Levison such and then leviis you know he's gonna make these boneheaded He's just like I mean, he's like a Jameis Winston type quarterback back there where you know you'll you'll get some some really amazing down the field throws, but then you also get those boneheaded moves as well. Right, And then Week two, they get the Jets, and so I have a feeling that we're gonna see a lot of people panicking greatly with the pass catchers, specifically like Calvin Ridley after this week. I think there's a very real possibility we see that.

00:47:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, we totally see that.

00:47:55
Speaker 2: I mean I've already started that with DeAndre Hopkins is not not playing right, I mean, like, you know, a guy that's that's all, you know, coming in and acknowledging that he's playing herd. But I also expected a little more from Calvin Ridley's first game, right, I think what he went in like a you know, the he's consensus ranking was probably about thirty eight or thirty nine or whatever. He ended up fifty two, yeah, or in that range, And so yeah, that's not encouraging. I think the backfield is the place to invest there right now, and that's why I'm not giving up on Spears. I think they're going to lean heavily into that. But but I don't know.

00:48:26
Speaker 3: That this you know, this is the week for them to improve.

00:48:29
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, tough early schedules, so at least they might avoid Sondritik.

00:48:33
Speaker 1: That'd be nice, that would be nice, That would be very nice. All right. So there's some more backfields that I want to do kind of like a rapid fire with you, where we have these backup running backs and look, this is becoming more and more frequent in today's NFL, where you have these backup running backs that are kind of, you know, flexworthy. In some leagues, you might be able to get some fantasy production from them, but they're not the one a. They're not the starting running back in their offense. And so you know, we were not necessarily valuing them, you know, immensely high. But my my rapid fire question that I want to ask you, I'm gonna name some of these guys. I'm gonna name these backups, and I'm gonna have you let me know you can. You can answer quickly or longley if you will. Uh if these guys, if you think that that the starter for the team is then in danger. Okay, So we'll start with Tampa Bay. You have Bucky Irving as the backup Rashad What is the starter? Is Rashad White in danger of losing a lot of work this year?

00:49:35
Speaker 3: The short answer is yes.

00:49:36
Speaker 2: I go back to the course of the off season and listening to the words of my old high school rival, the Soorro Cougar quarterbacks, Skip Pete, now of the running backs coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and like he's been like an open book during his time as a coach.

00:49:50
Speaker 3: We heard him in Dallas.

00:49:52
Speaker 2: He was the one saying, Hey, we like Tony Pollard when he gets thirty snaps, right, I mean, you know, he's.

00:49:56
Speaker 3: Always been an open book.

00:49:57
Speaker 2: I felt like the message he was sending that Bucky Irv him was there as a as a message to Rashad White to hit the damn hole. Yeah right, and so and because that's and so early on, and indications are White is not hitting the hole.

00:50:11
Speaker 3: Yeah right. He's just an inefficient runner.

00:50:12
Speaker 2: He's great in the passing game, and he's he's serviceable as a runner, but he'll he's not he's not a great runner.

00:50:18
Speaker 3: And Bucky Irvan might be the answer here.

00:50:20
Speaker 2: So I think if they don't, if he doesn't, if he doesn't become more effective running between the tackles, I think we'll see more and more Bucky Irv.

00:50:26
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:50:26
Speaker 1: Week one, Rashad White still had his you know, sixty five percent route participation, which is is what we'll probably see from Shod White. I mean, like like as a prospect, Like I'm a sucker for pass catchers as a prospect. Loved Rashad White because he had an unbelievable pass catching profile coming out, one of the best of my model has really seen over the last ten years or so. And then you know, we've seen him do that and the end, we even saw it in Week one right like he was catching plenty of the passes out of the backfield. It's it's it's weird though, because Bucky Irving to me, profiled more as that kind of player coming out out as more of like a change of pace, you know, relatively reliable hands and backfield pass catcher. And that's my That's always been my fear with Irving. But I do think that, you know, we have to always put our brains in the coaches brains and things, or at least that's probably not the right way to phrase that, but we have to we have to always think about the way the coaches are thinking, and the way the coaches are thinking, Like you said, they want to use Bucky Irving probably more than a lot of people would would want to, at least for Sead White managers would want to realize, right.

00:51:31
Speaker 2: The good news is targets are worth more than carract So you know, we've got that going for us. But I think that and like Rashan White even talked about it last year. I mean, his finish last year was based so much on volume, right, he had this with the second third most He's right there with McCaffrey and Carrie's time with two hundred and seventy two and uh, and.

00:51:50
Speaker 3: They had a lot of catches.

00:51:51
Speaker 2: And even he said like, hey, I'm gonna be great in yards from scrimmage because I'm a great asset in their seeing the game. And he'll continue to be that. But I expect to see more Irving as a runner soon.

00:51:58
Speaker 1: Similar situation with Travis Ytn and Tank Bigsby. I say, similar, not that you know, uh Tyler or Travesytn's as good as Rashad White on the you know, Rashad White's good as Travesytn on the ground, but similar from the perspective that Etn still got a lot of run as a receiver. Bigsby did not. But Bigsby did dig into this workload. And so yeah, like do you do you think that that ETN managers right now should be nervous.

00:52:24
Speaker 2: They should be nervous, yes and no, h they should be glad that they didn't pay the premium for last year as well. Running back three finished because they didn't. Right, he was reasonably priced in drafts because I think I think that you know, I pay a lot of attention to desired outcomes or what I think are desired outcomes of the teams. The team wanted this last year, they wanted to split. Last year, they thought Tank Bigsby was going to be that guy, if you know, working with Mike Dempse, my co host on Sirius, he covers that team on a daily basis there in Jacksonville. And and I mean just it was clear that they expected Tank Bigsby to to take some of the pressure. I well, I mean it was like what the year before was like a seventy percent, you know share, seventy percent of the running back touches for ETN, and then last year it went up. So and that's not what they wanted. And it was because bigs didn't secure the ball and fell short of expectations. This year, he secured the ball, the guy who dropped it. He didn't drop it like some somewhere out there, Peanut Tillman is like feeling like a swell of pride at the punch that he saw.

00:53:21
Speaker 3: What a delightful punch that was.

00:53:23
Speaker 2: But but but I do think we're going to see more Bigsby and I think that's been the desired outcome for two years now and it's just coming to fruition. I don't think it takes ETN out of the tail end of the running back one high running back two range, but it probably keeps them limited there.

00:53:39
Speaker 3: I don't think we'll see that high end production we saw last year.

00:53:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's more of a nuisance to ETN than necessarily you know, him him taking over. I'd say the one backfield this week that might have flipped that probably changed the most, just from an ADP perspective, is the one in Vegas where Zamir White was drafted as a low and RB two and week one we saw I mean, just from a usage standpoint, I've been saying this on the podcast all week. If we had this exact same usage week in and week out, we would straight up prefer Alexander Madison over Zamir White for the rest of the season. So you know, who knows what will happen. But where are you at with that situation? And should Zamir White slash Samir White managers be nervous right now?

00:54:22
Speaker 2: Yes, we should be incredibly nervous than we are. I feel like I could speak for all of us. Look, I we saw the late season run, right, and so you know, just talking to people there in the building, right like, you know, you get some you get some information, and I think it's good information.

00:54:39
Speaker 3: Like Josh Jacobs.

00:54:40
Speaker 2: Could have returned the last two games last year, but they thought White gave them more juice in the backfield. Antonio Pierce as a coach is more like a player like he was as a player. He's like that old school That's why you know Gardner Minshew wasn't announced as a starter upon arrivals. He's got to beat out the incumbent. That's why the locker room loved him. And he had that ground swell of approval from the team to stick around and go from interim to coach. And so I talked to people who covered that team on a daily basis, multiple multiple people who said he loves Antonio Pierce, loves you your white I bought into that narrative, and you know he got that same like eighty percent usage that did his ideal. Clearly that isn't how it started. And this is one of those cases where you've told yourself a happy story. You better be ready to accept the fact that your happy story is going to have an unhappy ending if you stick with it. So I'm dialed back. I'm not giving up. Things can change over time. And we've seen Alexander Madison come up short. But you know if you thought he was just like, oh, he's just going to be on the receiving downs, well that touchdown catch was a first and ten play. Yeah, right, So it's it's it's more than it's more than we expected.

00:55:43
Speaker 3: And maybe it changes game to game. Maybe they need a game.

00:55:45
Speaker 2: Where they get up in their head. You know, I'm not quick to forget. You know, the game against the Chiefs last year, one hundred and forty five yards for Zamir White. He's like a very powerful runner. He offered a little bit as a receiver when he catched nine passes. I'm like, I'm wish, but yeah, for right now, totally be in not panic mode, but totally accept what you're seeing. Yeah, and acknowledge that it's going on and make adjustments accordingly. You know, sa Mere White is going to go from being in a lot of my lineups to not being in a lot of my lineups. And and again you probably got them at a price where you can afford to do that. Sit on them, just like with Gus Edwards and hold out and see how it plays out.

00:56:27
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:56:27
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it doesn't help that they're playing Baltimore this week. It does not, that's not Baltimore coming off a loss, no less. But yeah, like I think that with White, you know, if you want to look at it positively, like you still saw a decent backfield share in terms of RUSSI attempts. The problem obviously was that he saw a six percent target share. Alexander Madis bumble, Yeah, Alexander Madison nineteen percent routes run percentage. You get Alexander Madison at sixty z Mere White at twenty five. It's that pass catching role that that you know is going to be a little bit scary for White right now. And like I said, you know again this is this is a situation that you got to react to understand that that where where the value really is you know, from a fantasy football perspective, where I think a lot of people still think that rush attempts, as you noted, are just as valuable as targets are. They're not, which is why we're still going to value Shot White over Buddy Irving, and we're still going to value Travis Etn over Tank Bigsby. The difference here is that the backup is the one or the quote unquote backup is the one who is seeing that work. And that's the work that not only got Alexander Madison a lot of fantasy points in Week one, but it's the it's the work that is more valuable, especially on a team that's not projected to be very good. That's that's right.

00:57:43
Speaker 2: That's the other part of this, right, I mean, they need to be playing from ahead, and how often will that happen? I do think the desired outcome is is to play defense and run the football. Yes, right, that's yes. Their quarterback position reflects that.

00:57:55
Speaker 3: But but also uh.

00:57:57
Speaker 2: They're not always going to be able to do that, and we saw what can happen. It's not not what I was hoping.

00:58:02
Speaker 1: Nothing screams that you just want to run the football and playing low scoring games like punning the ball in plus territory from on fourth and one when when you need a first down to to come back and win this game late in the fourth quarter. So yeah, I mean I think that, like it seems like Zamir White is like the hypothetical perfect match for a high like Pierce. It's just that will this environment allow for this to actually come to fruition?

00:58:29
Speaker 3: That is exactly you have nailed this. Yeah. Yeah.

00:58:33
Speaker 1: The last one is the one in Minnesota. You got Ty Chandler with Aaron Jones. Any feel with that or do you think it's more so you know, Jones is probably a sixty six percent guy, ty Chandler thirty three percent guy, and they both can kind of play a similar role in the offense.

00:58:47
Speaker 2: I think that's kind of what Aaron Jones has been and I think he'll continue to be that as long as he's healthy. He's got huge upside. We can see the playmaking ability there and we've seen a little bit little flashes of it with ty Chandler, So I think that's I think that's about right. It's Aaron Jones is the lead piece there as long as he's in the locked and upright position and ty Chandler with a ton of contingent upside if something happens.

00:59:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, one more thing I want to get to, well, two more things technically, But the one thing is this RAMS wide receiver group. Like you said, you talked to plenty of beats and folks that are covering these teams. Have you learned anything about how they might deploy these wide receivers or have you seen slash research anything to show which direction you would lean with these wide receivers without Pukaakua.

00:59:29
Speaker 2: First of all, I don't celebrate anybody's injuries. I do, as a heavy investor into Marcus Robinson, find it fortuitous.

00:59:37
Speaker 3: But it was.

00:59:38
Speaker 2: You know, the investment in Robinson came because of the late season run last year. He was involved in part of that offense and clearly someone that Matthew Stafford has an infinity for. And I thought we I think, kind of what we saw last week, maybe how it plays out. Except I think we're way undervaluing Tyler Johnson in this offense. I think, you know, maybe we'll see maybe he'll be the guy that will wish we had had at least.

01:00:00
Speaker 3: While Nick who is out.

01:00:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I do think Tyler Johnson's in a really good spot. But I but again, de Mark Shrobinson having already the chemistry built in with with Stafford, works in his favor as well.

01:00:11
Speaker 3: But Cooper Cuff's going to be dominant.

01:00:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Oh my gosh, it's gonna be. He's my wide receiver one this week already. It's just I don't know. I can't put anyone else above Cooper Cup. I mean, someone listening to this is gonna watch, you know, the Tyreek kill tonight. Maybe he goes nuts and I'm gonna look like an idiot after the fact, But man, Cooper Cup could see like a thirty five to forty percent target share without Pook and a cou in that lineup. The one thing too, I saw this the coach Speak Index tweeted this out. I don't know if you've heard anything differently or if you think there's anything to this, but there was evidently a quote from Sean McVay where when talking about the wide receivers, he said, we have Cooper Cup, we have DeMarcus Robinson, and then he kind of said we have these three other guys and Tyler Johnson, Jordan Winnington and two two out, well that can kind of step in and play that other role. And you know, Tyler Johnson played the Nakua role in eleven personnel. He played well right against Detroit. I always been a Tyler Johnson truther too, just as a I loved him as a prospect, thought he was really undervalued just as a player. Clearly that didn't really come to fruition. But do you think that, like just it just feels like the Marcus Robinson is just the safer bet. Whereas we're recognizing there's a lot of eleven personnel and if if if Tyler Johnson's that guy who would be out there in three wide sets and he could be just as valuable as the Marcus Robinson if it goes that direction.

01:01:25
Speaker 3: I don't have the number in front of you with the Rams.

01:01:27
Speaker 2: You have to be up there with that with who Cincinnati.

01:01:30
Speaker 1: And oh yeah they're eleven personnel usage.

01:01:33
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, so so yeah, And that's that's what I think it like more most likely everyone's going to be chasing to Marcus Robinson. So if you miss out on that, right, I'm gonna be I'm gonna be chasing Tyler Johnson. And for the reason he said, he's like the he looks like the direct replacement for Nikula in those three receiver sets.

01:01:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, one more question, Bob. If you look into your crystal ball, which player will be the face of week two waiver wire columns after this is all said and done.

01:02:01
Speaker 2: So in leagues where you're not playing with much proactive people, because if you are, it might have already happened. Michael Pennick Junior is a guy that you know, and I get it. Quarterbacks are not often highly sought after commodities. But if you're making speculative plays, I think the angst over Kirk Cousins, who clearly is not where he needs to be yet in his recovery from the torn Achilles and that he's not there yet suggests things to me, And the presence of Michael Pennix suggests other things to me. The usage in the preseason adds all the intrigues to that, so totally expected to play. I think if we're looking at some guys that, like I was trying to think of running backs that might fit the bill, and I don't know if we're going to see that, you.

01:02:43
Speaker 1: Know, like, I'm without injury, without.

01:02:45
Speaker 3: Injury, right, it's going to take an injury.

01:02:47
Speaker 2: So if we're looking for other pieces, I think Adamnan Mitchell is a guy.

01:02:50
Speaker 3: I mean we're not for.

01:02:52
Speaker 2: You know, two lit overthrews, so he we would be talking way more about him than we're talking about Alec Pierce this week. And I think, you know, this might be the time to land Tucker Craft before Jordan Love comes back, because the usage was off the charts weird, and if you invested in Luke Mus's Grave, you should be a little concerned there, especially with Kraft.

01:03:12
Speaker 3: I mean, he's the guy coming off he very yeah.

01:03:13
Speaker 1: Very very look as someone as someone who is fine with drafting Luke Musgrave this year, I'm very very concerned about Luke Presh. I actually dropped him in some leaves.

01:03:21
Speaker 3: Yeah.

01:03:21
Speaker 2: It was funny because I talked to people over the course of the off season who kept telling me, no, don't dial in on, don't dial in on musk Grave. But they, you know, their contention was not what we saw week one. They thought it would be way more even split, but it was nowhere near even. I think if Jordan Love comes back sooner than we think, and it looks like he's heading back sooner than we think, or at least on track to. I think Tucker Graft's gonna be a great guy. But if you made me just nail me down to one, it's one hundred percent, Mitchell, because I think people way underestimate Anthony Richards's ability to throw the football.

01:03:48
Speaker 3: And I know I watched the end of that game.

01:03:50
Speaker 2: And I saw how everyone was on the sidelines looking all disappointed. You know who was not disappointed? Shane Stiken. He sees the direction this is taking with Anthony Richardson.

01:03:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I like that a lot. I also said Week two Waiver Wire technically be the Week three. Week three your Waiver Wire columns for the rect Yes, Bob, this was long overdue. Thank you so much for all of your time. As as usual, I love our conversations. I love chatting with you. Let everyone know where they can find you before we head out.

01:04:19
Speaker 2: Football Guys dot com is a website you can check out The Daily Update podcast every morning comes out of five thirties ten minutes of news and tidbits and just stuff to skitch you off to a good start. My fantasy notebooks out every Thursday. My In and Out column is out every Saturday and be careful with that one. I'm taking some big swings and I'm sorting through the ashes of last week now. And also you can hear me on Serious XM Fantasy Sports Radio Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday ten pm to midnight. Saturday night, we're on the NFL Channel and the Fantasy Channel from eight to eleven. Sunday, you can hear me on the pregame show with Jeff Mans from eleven to one. It's almost like they want you to hear me, and if you will trying to miss, it's going to be difficult.

01:04:59
Speaker 3: I apologize.

01:05:00
Speaker 1: You're you're everywhere, man, You're You're still You're still everywhere. It's awesome.

01:05:04
Speaker 2: Uh.

01:05:04
Speaker 1: As always, you guys can find me on Twitter at late Round QB all my stuff over on lateround dot com. Make sure you're taking advantage of the new underdog offer where if you sign up with promo code late Round, you will get a link to my rest of season rankings that I update every single Tuesday. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.